In ‘Who’s Your City?’ Richard Florida (2008) argues that despite the hype over ‘globablisation’, the ‘flat world’ (Friedmann, 2005) and the ‘death of distance’ (Cairncross, 1997), rather than becoming irrelevant, place is more important than ever before.  He suggests that because of the clustering of talent, innovation and creativity (Florida, 2002), places are growing more diverse and more specialised; hence, the world is ’spiky’ rather than flat.  This means that where a person lives is important to every facet of his/her life, affecting all others, including, in economic terms, the fact that it can determine employment opportunities available and income that can be earned.  However, while some individuals are very mobile and are able to choose where they live, others may not be able to exercise such choice and so may be relatively immobile. The opportunities that places offer need to be understood in their broader structural context – both geographically and historically, in accordance with the role that they play in economic, urban and regional systems.  Exponents of evolutionary economic geography argue that regional and local economic trajectories are shaped by historical and current circumstances.  Places carry their history with them, and factors such as sectoral mix, culture, and institutional performance can persist for a long time (Boschma, 2004).  Assets and economic histories of different areas have led to different sector and skill mixes and cultures of enterprise and innovation across the regions, so leading to diverse patterns of employment and productivity performance.  Hence, differences in sectoral development pathways, knowledge assets and local innovation systems are important in shaping future economic trajectories (Simmie et al, 2008). In relation to education, place might affect motivation and opportunities to learn in three main ways (Lupton, 2006).  First, neighbourhood effects may impact on the individual (as discussed later in this paper) through ‘place effects’, such as local labour market opportunities, area stigma and the quality of, and access to, educational facilities; and through ‘people effects’, such as peer groups, social networks and the presence or absence of role models.  To some extent the impact of neighbourhood effect may vary by age, but are likely to be particularly pronounced for older teenagers.  Secondly, the quality of schools and other educational institutions (ie school/institutional effectiveness) is likely to impact on the individual.  Hence, geographical variations in the quality of teaching, institutional resources and equipment, curriculum and pedagogy are likely to influence educational outcomes.  Indeed, there is evidence that households able to do so, are prepared to move to be within the catchment areas of ‘good’ schools, so inflating local house prices (Leech and Campos, 2003; Gibbons and Machin, 2003).  Thirdly, neighbourhood factors impact upon school composition and quality – pupil composition and teacher recruitment and retention are important factors here.

Sub-national variations in the quantity and quality of employment

National averages and trends disguise regional and sub-regional variations in the quantity and quality of employment.  These variations are the outcome of local, regional, national and international processes.  Many of these variations are long-standing and correlate with long-term industrial decline, broadly along ‘North-South’ lines at regional level (Martin, 1988; Erdem and Glyn, 2001).  The disparity in GVA growth rates between the best and worst performing regions has persisted for over eighty years (CLG, DTI and HM Treasury, 2006).  The lack of convergence between UK regions in employment rates (see Figure 1 for the situation in 2007, with an employment rate 11 percentage points higher in the South East than in Northern Ireland) and GVA has implications for the nature of the UK ‘regional problem’ (Fothergill, 2005). Within regions there have also been shifts in the quantity and quality of employment, most notably, a general trend towards spatial decentralisation of employment from inner city areas to urban peripheries and rural areas (Fothergill and Gudgin, 1982; Social Exclusion Unit, 2004).  This has implications for geographical access to employment opportunities, since the public transport infrastructure does not coincide with the economic geography of the 21^st century.

Figure 1:        Employment rates by qualification level, 2007 – regions and nations of the UK

Note: Regions and nations are ranked in ascending order on the total employment rate Source:         Labour Force Survey, 2007 Quantitative variations in numbers of employment opportunities are manifest in geographical differences in employment and non-employment, whereas qualitative variations are reflected in the nature of employment opportunities available and prospects for labour market advancement.  In general, ‘quantitative’ concerns about numbers of jobs tend to be greatest at times of rising unemployment when labour markets are slack.  Overall, however, in recent years there has been a general shift towards greater policy emphasis on ‘qualitative’ aspects of employment, while in analyses of worklessness the trend has been towards consideration of aspects of inactivity alongside unemployment. Traditionally, economic geographers have been most interested in sectoral variations in the composition of employment.  Historically, there were marked geographical variations in key sectors, reflecting local concentrations of raw materials (especially in mining and extractive industries) and specialist manufacturing traditions, which in some instances are reflected in area names (such as ‘The Potteries’ for the Stoke-on-Trent area).  Over time, however, with the loss of employment in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, and the increase in employment in services, sectoral differentials in employment structures over space have become less pronounced.  So regional variations in the sectoral composition of employment are less marked than formerly and rural economies now have a similar sectoral structure to urban ones (Countryside Agency, 2003).  Nevertheless, there remains considerable interest in sectoral variations in employment and in the context of the current recession attention has been focused on sectoral composition in order to provide intelligence on the vulnerability of local areas and sub-regions to the credit crunch and to the credit crunch and economic downturn (Oxford Economics, 2008; PACEC, 2008). Sub-national sectoral variations in employment are less marked than formerly, with the decline in many traditional areas of employment now well stabilised.  Yet there is still considerable interest in sectoral vulnerability to the credit crunch.  Figure 2 highlights that this may affect a number of new areas not previously considered vulnerable. For example, the focus of the initial impact of the credit crunch on banking and finance means that the City of London and the neighbouring borough of Tower Hamlets are at the top of the list.

Figure 2:        Vulnerability Index in Local Authorities (Top 15)

Source: from Oxford Economics (2008) Figure 3 shows a map prepared by PACEC (2008) for the Local Government Association (LGA) on the likely local distribution of the overall impact of a recession.  This map is based on an estimate of local employment change, and builds on data from the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s.  Again, it highlights that while some areas at high risk are longstanding areas associated with economic disadvantage, the focus on services as well as manufacturing provides a new geographical pattern.

Figure 3:        Local distribution of the likely overall impact of recession

Source: from Oxford Economics (2008) Transformation in the sectoral composition of jobs has had implications for the occupational and skills profiles of employment.  Theories of endogenous regional growth recognise the importance of high quality, knowledge-based jobs in driving economic growth. These theories explain the process by which city and regional economies grow via localised accumulation of knowledge, reinforced through external economies of scale achieved through ‘knowledge spillovers’ as workers interact with each other to increase local productivity (Duranton and Puga, 2004). Using data on occupation and earnings, analyses of the regional distribution of workplace employment in the UK over the period from 1997 to 2007 using the ‘quality of jobs’ framework proposed by Goos and Manning (2007) which measures ‘job quality’ in terms of monetary reward (ie in terms of median pay by occupation), show that whilst jobs have been created across the entire distribution of job quality, in almost all cases net new job creation has been skewed towards higher skilled occupations (Jones and Green, 2009).  However, London and the South East, which were already advantaged in terms of having the most higher skilled jobs, outperformed other regions in this respect  This regional gap is shown in Figure 4.  While some of these jobs are likely to be lost during recession, this trend towards greater professionalisation of employment is long-standing.

Figure 4:        The application of quality of jobs framework on employment by occupation and earnings at regional scale, 1997-2007

Source: from Jones and Green (2009) A more detailed examination of trends by sector reveals that the success of London and the South East has been achieved by building upon their already high skilled occupational base, particularly in areas such as finance, real estate and business related activities, where the majority of new jobs over the decade were created.  Additionally, the analyses reveal that regional differences in job quality are driven not by variations in the sectoral structure of employment, but by the occupational structure (ie high/low quality bias) within sector.  London’s advantage, for example, is largely derived from a high skilled occupational structure within all sectors.  Hence the attraction of such a large metropolitan labour market for ‘dual career households’.  Conversely, in peripheral rural areas the knowledge economy is more ’shallow’ and individuals face fewer and less varied employment opportunities. Moreover, the analysis of high quality jobs reveals the important role of the public sector in affecting regional differences (see Figure 5).  The relatively even spread of public sector employment across the UK (taken as a percentage of total regional employment) combined with the fact that differences in job quality between regions are much less pronounced in the public sector means that, in effect, the public sector plays an important role in ‘propping-up’ average job quality outside London and the South East (see also Hepworth et al, 2005); thereby reducing what would have been otherwise larger regional differences.

Figure 5:                    Percentage of high quality jobs in public rather than private sector by region, 1995-97 and 2005-07

Source: from Jones and Green (2009) Using a measure of employment polarisation which measures the degree to which employment is clustered at the top and bottom end of the ‘job quality’ distribution, increased levels of polarisation are apparent in most UK nations and regions. In effect, net positive numbers of jobs are being created at the top and bottom end of the skills distribution, with few jobs being created in the middle of the distribution.  London stands out from the rest as having not only the highest initial level of job polarisation, but also the highest degree of change towards increased polarisation. From a social as well as economic perspective the increasing tendency towards employment polarisation may lead to problems of increased economic inequality both within and between regions.  In this respect regional intervention may be rationalised on the grounds of promoting ‘equity’ (CLG, 2008). There are more jobs being created at the top and bottom of the earnings distribution than in the middle, with London being the most polarised region.  The ‘knowledge economy’ is shallower in peripheral rural areas than in large urban areas.  This has implications for the types of jobs that young people see adults working in locally and also for the range of employment opportunities that are available to them if they remain in their local area.  Core regions attract dual career households because of the quantity and quality of higher skilled employment opportunities that they offer (Green, 1997).  In turn, this has implications for school composition in different local areas.

The geography of labour markets

Much economic debate on labour markets focuses on national and supra-national level developments.  However, as outlined above, there are important variations in experience at regional and sub-regional scales – hence the relevance of a geographical perspective on labour markets.  This is not to deny an increasing interest in transnational links between regional labour markets.  The international migration of capital and labour is not a new phenomenon, but is now taking place at unprecedentedly high levels.  Labour market impacts are especially pronounced in terms of labour flows within the European Union. The penetration of immigrant labour beyond traditional migrant ‘gateways’ to smaller settlements and rural areas links regional and local labour markets transnationally to a greater extent than previously, and has implications for sub-national labour markets in both destination and origin countries. There is an ever increasing interest in transnational links between regional labour markets and the penetration of migrant labour beyond traditional migrant gateways.  The use of the term ‘the labour market’ suggests a unity that is often absent in practice.  A multiplicity of sub-markets exist, demarcated by various criteria such as occupation.  Geographical divisions of labour markets are largely a consequence of the monetary and psychological costs of extensive daily travel to work, and often much greater costs of migration between areas. Despite the interest in hyper-mobilities, tele-working and mobile working (see Felstead et al, 2005), as well as long distance weekly commuting, the majority of commuting journeys remain short in distance terms (Green and Owen, 2006) (especially if measured in terms of time spent).  However, there is increasingly less clarity about terms such as ‘usual residence’ and ‘usual workplace’. There are important sub-group differences in travel distances.  For instance, commuting journeys are shorter:

• for women than men
• for part-time workers than for full-time workers, and
• for unskilled workers compared with those in professional occupations (see Figure 6).

The relative costs of commuting are higher for less skilled and part-time workers, leading to less geographically extensive job searches and shorter travel-to-work distances than for more highly paid workers.  These differences between groups of workers are important in understanding the labour market behaviour of different sub-groups and are crucial for policy makers concerned with facilitating the matching of labour supply and demand.

Figure 6: Average commuting distance by occupation, 2001 – England and Wales

Source: from Green and Owen (2006) Labour market mismatches can take various forms, including:

• skills mismatches – when the skills that workers supply do not match those demanded by employers (see Kain, 1968; Houston, 2005), and
• spatial mismatches – the changing geography of employment and implications for access to work

Proponents of a ’segmented model’ of the labour market (see Morrison, 2005), who believe that ‘the local labour market’ consists of a number of spatially-defined sub-markets and who attribute concentrations of worklessness at a local scale primarily to deficiencies in highly localised demands for labour, conclude that to combat high non-employment rates in some local areas it is necessary to ‘take work to the workers’.  Conversely, proponents of a ’seamless model’ of the labour market, who contend that city-regions are single markets in which transactions between labour and capital take place regardless of the location of residence and employment sites, argue that ‘taking work to the workers’ will only have a short-term effect at best, because spatial labour markets are permeable and local residents will be subject to city-region wide competition for jobs – and that those with lowest educational attainment and poor skills will tend to lose out.  Hence, on the basis that job growth does not necessarily ‘trickle down’ to local residents, the solution is to raise aggregate demand for labour and to upgrade the skills of the workless in order that they are better able to compete for the jobs available.  This means that access to educational and training provision for those with low levels of attainment and poor skills is crucial. The importance of social and institutional factors in the formation and operation of labour markets suggest that local and regional labour markets are socially embedded and constitute institutional spaces in which formal and informal customs, norms and practices underpinning employment, working practices, labour relations, and wage setting processes are played out (Green, 2009).  These place-specific developments are very important (Peck, 1996).  They are the result of the interactions between employers’ practices, institutions, state policies and regional and local labour market histories.

For whom does geography matter most?

Jobs demanding higher level skills are open only to people with higher level skills (or those felt by employers to have the potential to be trained to fill such jobs).  Jobs demanding only low level skills are open to people with poor skills and to people with higher level skills if they are willing to ‘bump down’ in the labour market to fill them (Gordon, 1999).  This means that in terms of absolute numbers of jobs those with poor skills have a smaller pool of jobs available to them. Furthermore because of differences in monetary and material resources, people with poor skills generally tend to travel over shorter distances to work than those with higher level skills (as outlined above).  So from any given location, people with poor skills are likely to search and take up jobs over a spatially smaller area than their higher skilled counterparts.  Hence, geography matters most for those with poor skills: the quantity and quality of jobs available locally is of particular importance for them.  It is also salient to note here that local variations in employment rates for those with degree level qualifications (see Figure 7a) are more pronounced than for those with no qualifications (see Figure 7b).  So, while some highly skilled people operate in national and international labour markets, local residents with poor skills tend to confine their lives to the local area in which they live.  Indeed, in a review of the impact of new transport technologies on mobility over the last century Pooley et al (2006) argue that, despite new forms of transport, basic mobility aspirations have changed little since the late nineteenth century and travel times have remained remarkably constant.

Figure 7:        Employment rate for residents aged 25-49 years by qualification level, local authorities in England and Wales, 2001

a) high level qualifications b) no qualifications Source: from Green and Owen (2006), based on 2001 Census of Population data. Objectively, there are more opportunities available to residents in some areas than in others.  So, as outlined above, where people live matters.  However, when making decisions about employment and training, often people do not have full or perfect information.  Moreover, the information that they process comes through a perceptual filter.  Place is important here because where people are looking from affects what they see, or choose to see, and how they interpret and act upon it (Green and White, 2007): perceptions matter.  Consequently, ’subjective’ geographies of opportunity may be much more limited than ‘objective’ geographies of opportunity (Galster and Killen, 1995; Ritchie et al., 2005).  Over 20 years ago, a study of school-leavers in Birmingham found that job search tended to be limited to familiar localities, while there were accessible areas of the city where jobs were not sought (Quinn, 1986).  Likewise more recent research in Belfast has suggested that ‘bounded horizons’ and relative immobility continue to constrain the labour market behaviour of young people (Green et al, 2005). Hence while some people ‘transcend space’ in their aspirations and knowledge of employment opportunities, others are ‘trapped by space’ and confine themselves to a narrower set of opportunities.  Figures 8 and 9 set out how social networks operate in both instances. Place-based social networks and area attachment may contribute to ‘bounded horizons’, such that people may follow conventional opportunities in familiar locations. For young people especially, the influence of family and friends is one important factor here, with links outside the local area often helping young people to transcend space, while strong networks of family and friends within a tightly defined geographical area may lead to a tendency to look inwards to the immediate locality (Green and White, 2007).  Strong reliance on friends and family in shaping attitudes and aspirations can be a ‘way in’ to work. “I get loads of support from family and friends … It is harder for people without family” (18 year old, Hull)

Figure 8:        How social networks operate to enhance opportunity

Source: developed from Green and White (2007).

Figure 9: How social networks can operate as a constraint

Source: developed from Green and White (2007). The evidence suggests that there are spatial and temporal variations in localised outlooks and place identity.  In spatial terms, ‘neighbourhood’ matters most to those who are most disadvantaged, given their relative lack of resources to take up opportunities further afield.  Likewise, it has been argued that different population sub-groups may see the ‘neighbourhood’ in different ways, and that the importance of place identity may vary over the life course (Lupton, 2003; Forrest and Kearns, 2001).  The implication of this is that the ‘neighbourhood’ matters more for some people (especially young people) at some times in some places than for other people at other times and in other places. ‘Area’ (or ‘postcode’) is also a possible basis for employer discrimination – alongside individual characteristics such as gender, ethnicity and age.  However, although ‘postcode discrimination’ is often cited as a possible cause of ‘area effects’ (ie spatial variations in employment [or other life] chances) once compositional effects are considered (ie spatial variations in the characteristics of individuals that may influence the chances of employment [or other outcomes]) objective evidence is hard to find. There is evidence for self-attribution of discrimination on the basis of postcode in some areas (Lawless and Smith, 1998; Dewson, 2005), and this seems to be particularly strong in areas suffering persistent worklessness and poverty, with strong local identities associated with place-based social networks, and relatively low levels of residential mobility (Fletcher et al, 2008; Green and White, 2007).  In the light of the importance of history that has been emphasised above, it is also salient to note that area reputations may be long lasting and may outlive objective changes in neighbourhood characteristics (Robertson et al, 2008).  Although postcode discrimination may not be a widespread concern, negative impacts of area reputation and stigma may linger for some young people: “The reputation filters through to the mentality of the people.  They think ‘well I won’t go to school, ‘I won’t get a job’, etc” (16 year old female, Hull) How far young people think it is reasonable to commute is influenced to some extent by friends and family.  As illustrated by the following quotes: “I’d commute for an hour to find work – my Dad does the same” (18 year old, Walsall) “I want to work round here. All my mates work round here – they won’t look for work anywhere else” (17 year old, Hull) In some cases there remain expectations of working nearby – even if industry is no longer there (a situation indicative of ‘living in a time warp’): “We have always worked ‘here’; you don’t want to be going ‘there’ for work” (Project Manager in West Midlands)

Policy – devolving decision making

Given the focus of this paper on the importance of place a key question is: ‘What is the most appropriate geographical level (ie national, regional, sub-regional, local, neighbourhood, etc) for intervention in relation to employment and skills policies?’. In recent years there has been a greater emphasis than hitherto on the regional dimension of economic and skills policy in the UK, and the ‘region’ and ‘city-region’ have become increasingly significant levels of policy delivery and governance (see HM Treasury, DTI, ODPM, 2006).  The rationale for this is that devolution of decision-making to regional and sub-regional scales ensures that policy design and delivery is responsive to particular opportunities and challenges.  The logic is that while regional and sub-regional skills strategies should be shaped by national priorities, the relative balance between key aspects such as attracting and retaining talent, upgrading the skills of the current labour force and integrating hard-to-reach groups should reflect different local circumstances.  Moreover, there is increased emphasis on taking account of the spatial implications of economic development, with Regional Development Agencies in England now being required to produce an integrated economic development and spatial strategy.  This highlights the importance of the spatial dimension in linking considerations of economic opportunities and associated education and training provision. The local authority role in local economic development has been strengthened.  Again in England, local authorities have been charged to promote economic development through Local Area Agreements (LAAs).  Local government is being encouraged to set up local employer-led Employment and Skills Boards linking the skills and jobs agendas.  Looking ahead increasing emphasis is being placed on Multi-Area Agreements (MAAs) in order to promote sub-regional collaboration. Likewise, in relation to tackling worklessness, the emphasis has been for outreach to engage with those who are ‘hardest to help’ at neighbourhood level.  This is in keeping with a more general trend towards localisation in order that local issues and circumstances (such as the skills levels of the population, the nature of job opportunities available, physical accessibility to available opportunities, etc) are taken into account when formulating interventions.  Hence, a comparison of local employment strategies in Newham and Hull New Deal for Communities (NDC), areas designed to address high levels of worklessness (Sanderson et al, 2005), reveals that the former adopted a strongly supply-side approach, concentrating on action to address residents’ problems and to remove barriers to work, so allowing them to capitalise on employment opportunities in the wider labour market; while the latter took a more balanced approach, including developing skills and raising aspirations, an intermediate labour market policy to address the needs of the most disadvantaged and support for business start-ups. Regional, sub-regional and local partnership working lies at the heart of devolved policy design and delivery.  The emphasis is on close collaboration between partners to develop and deliver sub-regional and regional priorities in a seamless, customised and holistic fashion.  However, within a complex and dynamic field it has been suggested that institutional proliferation has at times threatened to swamp local economic development and skills policy within a web of organisational complexity (Nunn and Johnson, 2008) in a manner that causes confusion for employers, training providers, and individual workers and learners. Hence, the trend to devolution to sub-national level appears well established and may gather pace in prevailing economic circumstances, since: “In time of a recession, the need for devolution to sub-regions, including counties, functional economic areas, local council partnerships and individual local authorities becomes more obvious and more urgent” (PACEC, 2008, piii).

Some possible implications for the future of education

It seems likely that concerns about the impact of place on education opportunities and outcomes will continue.  Neighbourhood factors influence educational outcomes – in relation to peer influences, social capital, role models and economic opportunities available.  Some places are rich in such factors, whereas others are relatively poor.  This suggests that making policies ’sensitive to place differences’ is important.  In particular, from a policy perspective, it suggests that ensuring adequate provision of both conventional and less conventional ’spaces’ and opportunities for learning (eg in other community facilities) is likely to be particularly important in the most deprived neighbourhoods.  Moreover, there is also a role, as part of general educational experience, for taking individuals out of their local ‘comfort zone’ in order to provide an alternative perspective from the everyday norm – after all ‘where you are looking from affects what you see’ (see Green and White, 2007).  More generally, policies to improve conditions in the most deprived areas are likely to reap educational rewards, albeit indirectly. Lupton (2006) suggests that equalising the quality of schooling across neighbourhoods is important in narrowing the gap in educational attainment between individuals and places.  One way that this might be done is by devoting more resources to schools in socio-economically disadvantaged areas.  After all, schools and other educational establishments are impacted by what goes on in the neighbourhoods and wider labour markets where they are located (see Thompson, 2002).  It is clear that parents who are able to do so, tend to move to areas with good schools.  This has implications for social segregation, which in turn has implications for educational outcomes. More generally, and in the longer-term, local labour markets are increasingly impacted by developments at regional, national and supra-national levels.  While there are benefits in making links to local areas (in terms of education for environmental sustainable development and creating further education and higher education links with locally important sectors in order to provide and enhance relevant training opportunities and to foster innovation, etc), it is also clear that a broader general awareness of developments beyond the local area and equipping individuals with the skills to take advantage of opportunities elsewhere is also important.

References

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The author is grateful to the Department of Children Families and Schools and to Futurelab in Bristol for their support of the Beyond Current Horizons (BCH) programme of research of which this paper is a small part. The author is especially grateful to the 4 individuals who agreed to form the Working and Employment Challenge Steering Group: for this part of the BCH project:

• Professor Lorna Unwin, (Dept. of Lifelong and Comparative Education, Institute of Education);
• Professor Ewart Keep, (Deputy Director, SKOPE, School of Social Sciences, Cardiff);
• Penny Tamkin, (Programme Director, the Work Foundation);
• Professor Alan Brown, (IER Warwick and TLRP Associate Director).

They all gave generously of their time and energy, trying to help keep the project focused and on track.

The author is also grateful to each of the authors who were commissioned to produce the Review Papers, without which the current document could not have been completed.

Lynn Gambin helped produce some additional Quick Reviews, (to fill a few key gaps not covered by the main reviews).  Thanks are also due to her and to Luke Bosworth, Amanda Kerry and Jackie Wilson for helping to locate, collate and synthesise the enormous amount of material covered and convert it into the present draft. Helpful comments and suggestions were also made by a number of colleagues also working on the BCH programme, especially Keri Facer and Richard Sandford from Futurelab and Dave Cliff.

None of these bears any responsibility for any remaining errors. The final set of judgements made, and the views expressed, should be attributed solely to the author.

1.      Introduction

1.1      Background: Aims and key research questions

This report considers how the nature of work and employment is likely to change over the next few decades, in the context of developments in technology and other key drivers of change. It summarises the main trends in employment patterns and other aspects of work. The aim is to establish a long-term vision of the context for education in the second quarter of the 21^st century. Some tentative conclusions about the possible implications for education are then developed.

1.2      Structure of this report

The structure of the remainder of this report (which constitutes the “Synoptic Report” for the Working & Employment Challenge area) comprises two main parts.

Section 2:  Evidence and Insights

This section summarises the evidence gathered during the review process and the related events and insights in the Working and Employment Challenge area that was relevant to the BCH programme. In particular, it highlights:

1. The existing observable social and technological practices in the challenge area which can reasonably confidently be expected to continue to 2025;
2. The factors, for example events or changes in social values, which might play a significant role in shaping future developments in the challenge area;
3. The key uncertainties in the challenge area that may lead to radically divergent future developments, and what might act as the lever for such divergence.

Section 3:  Implications for Education

This section moves on to consider the potential future challenges or opportunities that these trends and factors might present for education. It also considers what evidence there is for policy actions to be taken. This includes what existing educational practices or evidence might provide insights into potential responses to these challenges or opportunities and why.

2.      Key issues and trends: A summary of the evidence and insights generated in the Working and Employment Challenge

2.1      Work and Employment at the start of the new millennium

Paid work in the formal economy is the major activity occupying most people’s waking hours. It is also the prime source of income, as well as representing one of the main ways that most people identify who they are. Rates of participation in the formal economy (the proportion that are economically active) are currently around 85% for males and 75% for females of working age (16-60/65). A significant proportion of the remaining time is taken up by work in the informal economy (housework, caring for family members, care of the home, etc). The “grey economy” also accounts for a significant amount of activity for some people. This includes activities ranging from conventional work (often outside the auspices of the tax authorities) to criminal activities.

Since the 19^th century people have got used to the idea of fixed places of work, leading to a clear distinction between formal work and informal work. This has often had a strong sexist dimension. For many years the male was seen as the breadwinner, while the female role focused more on the home. Two world wars and various other factors have changed both attitudes and behaviour, so that there is now a somewhat more even distribution between the sexes. Women now account for almost half of total employment, although many of the jobs they do are part-time and there remain strong patterns of occupational and sectoral segregation.

Technological change (for example, advances in equipment to aid domestic work) has facilitated new ways of organising the allocation of time to different activities including work and leisure/play. The demographic mix within the formal labour market has shifted dramatically in favour of women’s involvement. Many social norms have changed as a consequence. Expectations of the importance of work and how it fits into people’s lives have also changed.

More recently, information and communications technology (ICT) has had significant impacts on the possibilities for locating work (both locally and globally). ICT allows people to work in very different ways (“distributed work”) but there are often significant human and other barriers and constraints preventing some people from taking full advantage of the opportunities this opens up. Sen (1999) has developed what he terms a capabilities approach to highlight these problems. “Capabilities” as defined by Sen cover a much broader range of issues than the personal capabilities of the individuals concerned as usually described. It also includes various external factors that limit what is possible for those individuals in the circumstances in which they find themselves.

These developments have significant implications for employers, employees and education and training providers. The way that work is structured and organised requires careful consideration, if the opportunities opened up are to be fully exploited to everyone’s best advantage. These issues are discussed in more detail in the reviews by Round (2008) and Atwell and Costa (2008).

2.2      Key Drivers of change

There is a general consensus that there are three main drivers of change in the labour market and the world of work.  These are technological change, globalisation and demographics, (see, for example, Karoly and Panis (2004), Wilson et al. (2007), BCH (2007) and Gambin and Wilson (2008)). The first two drivers in particular are strongly linked, indeed in some respects globalisation can be seen as simply the way individuals, organisations and countries have responded to technological change, depending on the economic constraints they face, and their social and political values.

The key drivers of change as far as employment and work in both the formal (market) and informal economies are concerned, are therefore technological change and demography. Together with political, regulatory, legal infrastructure and social values, plus behaviour, these determine patterns and levels of employment, and the significance of work in the formal economy.

However, as the papers by Cliff et al. (2008), Baldry (2008), Bosworth (2008), Wilson and Gambin (2009) and Harper (2008) make clear, neither technological change nor demography are strictly speaking exogenous.  Everything depends upon everything else.  But for many purposes it makes sense to regard these as external factors impinging on work, employment and education, rather than being shaped by them.

2.2.1   Technological change

Recent technological change has been dominated by the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT), although other technologies may be becoming of equal or greater import over the next 20-30 years (see Cliff et al. (2008) and Dixon (2008)). ICT has been the key technological development over the past 30 years and looks set to dominate events over the next 30 years, albeit sometimes in combination with other technologies such as biotechnology or nanotechnology. ICT has resulted in huge changes in both processes and increasingly also in products and services. These are dramatically changing the worlds of work, employment and education.

Dixon’s paper reviews some of the key trends and possible future developments, including drawing out some implications for learning and education. Recent and near future developments in ICT include real time speech recognition and translation, artificial intelligence and robotics. These developments enable ICT to take over many aspects of work including automation of many functions in service as well as manufacturing operations. Shorter more customised production runs are also facilitated. This has resulted in an explosion of new products and services, as well as new ways of producing them. ICT requirements from employers are often far from clear; they are very heterogeneous. But ICT skills will remain a key area for focus in Education for the foreseeable future.

As noted above, mobile technology enables an increasing amount of work to be done at any time and place (a key aspect of so called “distributed work”). The development of improved communications, as well as transport and logistic services, has revolutionised the relationship between customer and supplier. In many markets key tasks and operations can now be subcontracted to the other side of the world. This brings with it problems in managing distributed work and flexible working patterns, (both locally and globally), which requires new forms of education and training for both managers and employees in general.

ICT has resulted in dramatic changes in both products and services and ways of doing things. This has had significant impact on employment patterns and levels in different locations as individuals, organisations and countries have adjusted and responded to the threats and opportunities that this has offered up. One important consequence is a requirement for a core of very highly qualified experts who understand the technology in depth, plus a more general cadre of high skilled workers to operate it. However, as noted below, not all jobs will be high level ones related to the information/knowledge economy.

Technological change is having a dramatic impact on the structure of employment as well as many other aspects of the way work is conducted. ICT in particular has revolutionised the way business is done, created new markets and offered the possibilities for people to exert much more control over their working lives. It seems certain the pace of change will continue if not accelerate. However, it is important to recognise that just because something is technically possible does not mean that it will inevitably happen. As Baldry (2008) emphasises, outcomes are shaped by social and economic considerations and constraints. Simple extrapolations based on technological determinism, and based on the false idea of a fixed “lump of work”, have resulted in many previous projections of the impact of technology on employment looking very silly, (for an explanation of the “lump of work fallacy” see Box 1). In the 1970s for example the doomsters predicted the collapse of employment and the paperless office would be the prime outcomes of the coming ICT revolution (see, for example, Jenkins and Sherman (1979)). Both were far wide of the mark. This does not mean to say that developments over the next decade or two will not have profound implications for employment and the world of work, but it does illustrate the dangers of simple extrapolation, taking no account of social and economic behaviour and the power of markets to adjust to new circumstances.

Much of the debate on the impact of technological change and globalisation in recent years has focused on its biased nature which has tended to favour skilled labour (so called skill biased technological change (SBTC)). Generally, technological innovations in production methods result in improved productivity. In the short-run, holding all else equal (e.g. output levels), rising productivity implies falling demand for labour. But with biased technical change the demand for some, types of labour may increase.

More generally, economic theory suggests that, in the long term, productivity (output per person hour worked) is primarily determined by technological change, where this is generally defined to include efficiency gains due to re-organisation of working methods and working conditions. In many models this is treated as exogenous (falling like manna from heaven). In so called endogenous growth models (see Bosworth (2008)) it is linked to investment in human and physical capital. At the macro-level, therefore, there is no long-run trade-off between employment and labour productivity growth.

In the long run, if labour markets are functioning efficiently, changes in employment can be expected to reflect changes in the overall size and composition of the labour force, and, in turn, broader demographic changes. The final outcome will also be influenced by the various factors that affect the functioning of the labour market, (such as labour market (and other) policies, and labour market (and other) institutions).

Box 1: The Lump of Work Fallacy

It is clear that dramatic further technological changes are in prospect (Cliff et al, 2008).  But just because something is technically possible does not mean it will inevitably take place. Impact depends on take up and implementation, which is moderated by economic forces costs and benefits) and other factors (such as changing social values), and shaped by existing values and infrastructures.  As noted above, initial estimates of impact of ICT on work and employment in the late 1970s were way off beam.  This reflected the “Lump of work fallacy” (see Box 1 for further general discussion).

In thinking about possible futures it is important to avoid technological determinism (Baldry, 2008).  There are plenty of useful things to be done, including care of people and care of the environment. The question is how to ensure that such jobs are created, and offer a living wage.

2.2.2   The growing importance of virtual worlds and virtual markets

Castronova (2006), Heeks (2008) and others have highlighted the potential of virtual worlds and the internet for generating value in the real world.

There are many positive aspects of such virtual worlds:

• There are many opportunities for translation to real world; sale of virtual world information/assets for real world dollars, so called “gold-farming”;
• Virtual worlds can be used as training environments and vehicles, building up practical experience in low cost and unique ways;
• There are benefits for team work and communication;
• Development of new ways of being (having fun and being happy).

At present these remain relatively minor in terms of income and employment in a UK context. While the “games” industry is worth many billions of US dollars, the scale of gold farming and related activities is much less significant (although quite important for some developing countries, including China (Heeks, 2008)).

More human centric work can be better fitted into new styles of working based on on-line communities (Zhao et al (2007). Online communities can be an important source of work:

• Open source software (OSS);
• Scientific communities facilitated by cyber infrastructure (CI);
• eBay type operations and markets (eBay traders together form one of the largest “sectors” of employment in the USA);
• Creating products and obtaining benefits by working collaboratively in cyberspace.

Most of these activities represent more competitive (individualised/atomised ) markets, rather than monopolistic markets dominated by the “firm” or large corporation. This opens up the possibility of individuals generating their own employment opportunities rather than relying on the State or major corporations to provide them with jobs and employment. This might involve operating in the informal as much as the formal economy. These possibilities are taken up in Section 2.7 below.

Of course there are also negative aspects of such technologies.  These include:

• Exploitation of people over the net;
• Malign intent, (malware, viruses, botnets, etc) ;
• Big brother (both by the State and large corporations);
• Pornography and related activities;
• Criminal activity, identity theft, etc.

Some of these also have a positive economic face. For example, virus protection and other security software is quite big business. The market capitalisation of Symantec and McAfee combined amounts to some $16-17bn, so there is big money in protection and prevention. Estimates of the negative economic impact (e.g. clean-up costs) of malware are c.$0.5bn for the bigger and more pernicious outbreaks. So there are real economic costs and opportunities in these areas.

The development of “expert systems” has led some to suggest that many professional jobs will disappear. While IT systems can be designed to substitute for humans, there are still real limits to how successful this is, as anyone caught up in automated telephone answering systems can testify. Similarly access to the internet for “expert” information is no substitute for an in-depth education and years of professional experience.  Contrary to the views of an immigration official that “skill shortages of Indian chefs was not a problem since anyone can read a recipe”, execution of many complex professional, technical and craft jobs requires real knowledge and understanding that cannot be obtained by simply tapping in to “Google” or checking out Wikipedia.

2.2.3   Globalisation

Although Globalisation can in may respects be seen as an outcome of technological change moderated by economic and other factors, it is worth considering it as a separate driver for some purposes. A key issue is the way in which the technological changes outlined above have resulted in the economic playing field upon which the UK competes with the rest of the world, including developing countries, being flattened.  As Friedman (2007) argues in his popular book “The World Is Flat“, this is having dramatic implications for the world of work across the globe. Reduced transport and communication costs open up the possibility of outsourcing to take advantage of significantly lower costs for labour and other factors of production. Improvements in global communications are affecting the distribution of work geographically across labour markets on a global scale. There is now much less certainty about where work will be done in the future and by whom. Increasingly there is a single global market for everything, including people. Capital, people and jobs are increasingly mobile and less constrained by national boundaries.

Some commentators such as Brown et al. (2008) argue that this undermines the comfortable view held by some that the UK and other developed economies can retain and indeed expand on the numbers of high level jobs associated with the so called knowledge economy. They paint a much more pessimistic view about the impact of globalisation on the UK and, in particular, stress the low likelihood of the UK being able to reach the promised land of the knowledge economy for all but a few of its workforce.

2.2.4   Demographics

Demographics is the other main driver of change affecting the labour market and economy. Harper (2008) sets out the key trends. Perhaps the most significant change in terms of work and employment is the gradual increase in the average age of the population. Casey (2008) examines the changing trajectory of working lives resulting from this, focusing on what will be the impact of an ageing workforce and longer working lives. His review explores the significant implications this will have for the world of work, employment and education.

It is clear from the reviews by both Harper (2008) and Casey (2008) that the UK, along with many other developed economies, faces a three-fold challenge:

• an ageing population and workforce as the ‘baby boom’ generation approaches retirement;
• increased life expectancy; and
• a falling birth rate.

In combination these open up a gap in the dependency ratio between the economically active and the retired population. The projected change in dependency ratios raises major concerns about the sustainability of the pensions system, and rising costs of health care, especially for the elderly. This is likely to result in the need for later retirement and life long learning.

Casey (2008) highlights a number of tensions. In some respects the long-term trend has been for working lives to contract, with later labour market entry associated with longer time spent in formal education and earlier retirement. However recent concerns about pension provisions have been exacerbated by the financial meltdown associated with the “credit-crunch”, and the talk now is about extending working lives to enable people to build up pension rights. Of course, as economic circumstances pick up, previous trends towards early retirement may resume.

Increases in the average length of lives are also leading to more people considering working longer to fill their lives with something meaningful, as well as topping up incomes and pensions.

Often this involves the need to change jobs (as noted above) the idea of a single job for life has become less and less realistic as an ambition for the vast majority of the workforce. Increasingly it is only the public sector that offers such possibilities.

For those in employment approaching their 60s, the idea of hanging on to their current jobs, thinking “this will see me out”, is often no longer an option. There is an increasing need to think about retraining and re-skilling to maintain employment status.

Even for those that have retired there is often a reassessment and subsequent search for post-retirement work and related activities (possibly in the formal economy but equally in the informal economy, such as voluntary work).

Subject to what might happen via migration, the average age of the workforce is due to rise significantly. Employers will have to adjust to an ageing work force and then learn to live with that older workforce.

Life long learning will also need to focus increasingly on an ageing population and one with different needs.

At the opposite end of the age spectrum, many younger people are happy to operate as portfolio workers, flitting in and out of engagement with the formal economy as it suits them. But as they mature and acquire responsibilities they may need to find and secure a “proper job”, with more security and stability. This may become increasingly difficult in the immediate future as the impact of the recession bites, and previous modes of working become less easy to replicate.

Recent events in financial markets have exacerbated pressures on most pension schemes (both private and public). Many people will have a long and relatively comfortable retirement, but many others may face poverty, loneliness and a growing need for care. This will put pressure on the State and the extended family, forcing many to stay in jobs longer to improve their pensions and to pay for care for both themselves and their parents. However, as argued by Giullari and Lewis (2005), the “commodification” of care does not necessarily meet the emotional needs of the cared for nor the carer.

In addition there are a number of demographic issues relating to migration. Political changes (especially enlargement of the EU), as well as other factors, have made movement across national boundaries much easier. This has resulted in big increases in cross border flows of people. Although they are not so significant in numerical terms as the implications arising from the other demographic factors outlined above.  The UK government has argued that such flows have helped to meet labour shortages, and inward migrants often contribute a dynamic boost to their new countries.  However, the much greater flows of inward migration that the UK has experienced in recent years also pose many problems for the labour market, for education and for policy makers in general.

All these demographic developments pose particular problems for employers. They will need to change their recruitment and retention policies to attract and retain the staff they will need. This may reinforce trends towards more flexible working practices, including less abrupt retirement transitions, and require targeting of groups such as older workers. Another important aspect which can be included under this heading relates to the increasing role of women in the formal economy.

Work, employment and education are shaped by many institutional and political factors which have a demographic dimension.  There are two specific policy changes that are important in thinking about future developments.  These reflect decisions already made; first, to (effectively) raise the minimum school leaving age to 18; and second to raise the official retirement age of women to match that for men. These will be matters of historical fact in the future scenarios to be considered as part of the BCH programme, although as noted elsewhere they may bring with them many problems of adjustment in the short-term.

Another aspect of demography to bear in mind is the difference in birth rates between different groups in the population. Dex (2008) notes that the proportion of children from disadvantaged backgrounds coming through schools is likely to be increasing, since the poor are having more children and the rich are having fewer. For similar reasons the proportion of children from teenage pregnancies may also be expected to increase unless recent trends are halted or reversed. This will all have implications for educational priorities.

2.3      Changing patterns of work and underlying trends in sectors and occupations

The sectoral and occupational structure of employment has changed slowly but steadily over the past century and more. Two centuries ago the economy in the UK (and in Europe more generally) was predominantly agricultural. The industrial revolution resulted in the dramatic advance of manufacturing and industry as a key source of employment. Despite this, just 50 years ago, soon after the establishment of the European Community, much of Europe was still pre-industrial, and heavily dependent on agriculture. This is changing very rapidly and only a few members of the expanded EU now have significant proportions of their workforces employed in agriculture. In the UK it now accounts for less than 2% of all jobs.

Trends towards the so called “knowledge” and service economies have gathered pace over the last 10 years (see the analysis by the Work Foundation (2006), based on Eurostat estimates). The so called information revolution has resulted in the transformation of employment patterns, with much greater emphasis on service based employment, focused on knowledge and information acquisition, processing exploitation and dissemination. This includes a very diverse mix of jobs, ranging from high level professional and managerial occupations to those working in call centres and doing routine clerical support jobs.  According to the Work Foundation, amongst the EU15, employment in knowledge based sectors rose by almost a quarter over that 50 year period compared with an average increase of just 6% for the economy as a whole.  In the UK the overall share of knowledge based employment had risen to around 50%, one of the highest amongst the EU15. These trends are confirmed by more recent analyses, such as in official publications like Employment in Europe 2008, and in more academic studies such as Wilson et al. (2008).

Gambin and Wilson (2008) provide a general review of both conventional and non- conventional views of the prospects for work and employment, including research on possible future trends The conventional approach, based on examination of well established trends and patterns of behaviour, emphasises continuity and the need for education to prepare people for a world in which skills at all levels will be needed to succeed in the labour market. Less conventional approaches highlight the possibilities for both utopian and dystopian visions, which could have rather different implications for education.

Pink (2005) argues that a third revolution is now imminent. The first (industrial) revolution swapped fields for factories, while the second (information) revolution replaced brawn with brains. Pink suggests that the third revolution will involve a shift from “left” to “right-brain” economic production. The “left brain” is mainly associated with logical thinking. This is an area that computers are well suited to deal with. Developments in ICT such as speech recognition, GPS systems, the internet, etc, are making it possible to accumulate, analyse and apply information automatically, so that systems can replace people in many areas of service work, as well as in manufacturing. Systems can be designed to deal with routine enquiries, make bookings, and providing standardised professional advice. Expert systems are also becoming increasingly feasible, with the very best knowledge and practical experience about how to do most things available on-line. In contrast, “right brain” activity is associated with more creative thinking that cannot be so easily replicated by computers.

Gambin and Wilson focus primarily on paid employment in the formal market economy. Dex (2008) considers the future of both paid and unpaid work. Her paper covers some common ground with that of Round (2008) but focussing more specifically on the place of work within the family. They both consider some of the key trends in paid work, home-working and unpaid work They outline some of the links between these trends and social benefits, as well as general attitudes to work. Dex (2008) also highlights the loss of deference in society and the implications of this for schools, as well as a number of more general educational implications.

The trends in informal work are not clear cut. On the one hand the importance of the formal economy is in many ways growing, with women in particular taking an increasingly important role in the formal economy, with rising labour market participation rates amongst those of prime age (25-55). The employment rates for both males and females have also risen steadily in recent years encouraged by the State on the grounds that this is the best way to ensure social inclusion. On the other hand informal activity remains very significant for most people, and in many respects technological change is helping to encourage such activity, while some changes in social values (rejection of materialism, concerns about the environment, etc) are encouraging people to reject market/ capitalist solutions).

Gambin and Wilson’s review focuses on key trends at both a UK and pan-European level. They draw upon the recently published Working Futures results for the UK, as well as CEDEFOP projections which present an initial attempt to examine Europe’s labour market as a whole. Although both sets of projections were carried out before the current financial crisis broke, the emphasis is on longer term trends to 2020.  They suggest that although the growth of the so called “knowledge economy” will continue, it is the services sector more generally that will provide the main source of new jobs, both nationally and across Europe as a whole.

Gambin and Wilson’s (2008) review sets out in some detail the various drivers of change. It is argued that the changes in employment patterns expected largely reflect a continuation of previous long-term trends, driven by technological change and demography, moderated by economic factors. In combination these have resulted in shifts in patterns of consumer demand as incomes have risen.

As in the UK, the analysis confirms that Europe as a whole has been experiencing a sustained shift in employment away from the primary sector (especially agriculture) and traditional manufacturing industries towards services and the knowledge-intensive economy.  This general trend is predicted to continue, albeit with some exceptions as a few Eastern and southern European countries benefit from inward investment in some manufacturing (as a result of their lower labour costs).

Despite these changes, employment in many new EU Member States still relies to a great extent on agriculture and manufacturing, but this is changing rapidly. By 2020, the primary sector (agriculture and mining) is anticipated to decline from almost 8% of total employment in 1996 to less than 4% in 2020.  Manufacturing employment also is projected to fall from 20% to below 15% over the same period.  By that time ¾ all of jobs in the EU will be in services.

The Cedefop projections suggest that over 20 million additional jobs might be created between 2006 and 2020 in the EU-25+ (EU-25 plus Norway and Switzerland). This projection was undertaken before the scale of the impact of the recent financial crisis associated with the “credit crunch”, and its effects on the stock market and the real economy became clear. The main driver of the long term increase in employment is demographic change and the expected growth of the population and labour force. These are unlikely to be radically affected by short-term events.  Assuming that an economic collapse of the scale last witnessed in the 1920s can be avoided, such longer term trends are likely to be reasserted.

The Cedefop projections suggest that the construction sector will only show modest growth with fewer than half a million new jobs being created between 2006 and 2020. Distribution, transport, hotels and catering together are projected to see employment grow by more than 4.5 million over the same period, while non-marketed services (which includes education and health)  are expected to increase by slightly more (4.9 million). Business and miscellaneous services are projected to see the brightest prospects, with more than 14 million additional jobs being created between 2006 and 2020. Although the employment prospects for areas such as banking and insurance are likely to have been dented by recent events, the potential for growth in jobs in areas such as other business services and childcare and social care (which form part of miscellaneous services) will remain strong.

Underlying these trends is an assumption of continued innovation, technological and organisational change, and development of the so called “knowledge economy”. UK and other European governments have argued that future employment prospects and economic performance will depend upon continued investment in human capital to maintain competitive advantage compared with the rapidly developing countries of the Far East and elsewhere. There is increasing recognition of the importance of R&D and innovation in maintaining economic growth and competitive performance. While this is mainly tied up with education at the highest levels, there are implications for education more generally, in particular, the role of those qualified in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects. While these are not the only kinds of skills required, a sound foundation of science and technology is regarded by many as fundamental to continued economic success. These issues are discussed in more detail in Section 2.9 below.

The projected sectoral changes set out in the Cedefop work suggest that there will be significant implications for the occupational (and other) skills needed in the future. Skills can be defined and measured in various ways (for detailed discussion see Wilson et al. (2007) or Leitch (2006)). The most common definitions and measures used relate skills to either the occupation that people have, or to the qualifications they hold. Changes in sectoral structure have a direct impact on the pattern of demand for occupations and qualifications. They are also linked to other aspects of skills (variously referred to as key, core or generic skills, such as literacy, communication skills, etc). These changes are being reinforced by changes in the patterns of employment (skills demands) within sectors. Technological changes are a key driver here, affecting the pattern of demand for skills, these are being reinforced by changes in how work is organised and how jobs are performed within sectors.

A key trend identified is the shift towards demand for highly skilled workers. In general there is a rising demand for higher level occupations, typically requiring higher level qualifications (i.e. at degree level) and various types of generic skills.

The review by Green (2008) focuses upon the changing demands for generic skills. Drawing upon results from detailed surveys of employers, both in the UK and in many other countries, he suggests that generic skills, such as communication skills, problem solving skills, team working and ICT skills, are increasingly valued in modern economies and labour markets. Systematic studies of trends in the UK reveal a number of significant trends in the demand for a range of such skills. This has clear implications for education if the UK is to equip young people with the types of skills they will need to succeed in the labour market of the mid 21st Century.

Almost 40% of those employed in Europe are now in higher-level jobs such as management, professional work, or technical jobs, that typically require a university degree as an entry requirement, and this share is expected to rise further. This reflects the continued growth of the so called knowledge economy.

However, at the same time, there is a clear trend towards a growing number of lower level service jobs in hotels and catering, distribution and other areas. Increases in employment are therefore also projected for many jobs requiring no or lower levels of skills such as elementary occupations. Although there will be fewer jobs for some groups such as agricultural workers and clerks, the continued growth of the service sector will result in many less skilled job openings in areas such as hotels and restaurants.

The changing patterns of employment by sector and occupation are therefore projected to lead to a job polarisation (i.e. job growth at both higher and lower-levels of the occupational spectrum, with the demand for many jobs in the medium-level occupational layer becoming thinner). Technological change (especially ICT) and related organisational changes have increased the productivity of many medium skilled workers, with machines often doing routine and predictable work (both manual and non-manual) that was previously done by such workers. New technologies are less successful in substituting for labour skills where the work involves some element of discretion and response to human interventions, even in work typically done by low skilled workers. There are many tasks that, despite major technological developments in ICT, cannot be undertaken by machines or computers. Consequently the demand for low skilled workers is likely to remain for some time to come.

However the picture is quite complex and other research such as the forthcoming “Jobs Project” report by the European Foundation for Living and Working Conditions suggests that while polarisation has occurred, it is not a uniform phenomenon across all counties in Europe. The polarisation of employment opportunities has a gender bias and significant implications for equality and social inclusion (see Wilson et al. (2008) and Wilson (2007) for more extensive discussion).

However, some authors such as Brown et al. (2008) fear that the changing features of modern capitalism described under the heading of globalisation above mean that future patterns may be less benign, with businesses and capital being much less tied to particular locations and less prepared to accept long term responsibilities to their workforces in a new “flat world”.  This could result in a much less rapid increase of demand for graduates than Leitch and others suggest.

The Leitch Review set up by Gordon Brown considered the UK’s optimal skill needs in some detail looking forward to 2020 and beyond (Leitch 2006 and 2006). Leitch along with other independent reviews (e.g. Wilson et al. (2007) has confirmed that the UK still has a serious problem with basic skills (especially literacy and numeracy). A significant proportion of the workforce still has no formal qualifications. Many lack the basic skills of literacy needed to function properly in a modern economy.  Most commentators suggest that the need for skills at all levels is likely to rise over the next 20 years. The analysis suggests increasing needs for both for higher level skill (with increasing job opportunities for high level occupations (needing degrees, etc) as well as for some lower level occupations (needing basic skills). The need for basic literacy and numeracy skills is also projected to rise (both in terms of the numbers and proportions of jobs where such skills will be regarded as essential as well as in terms of the breadth of such basic skills with literacy in particular being expanded to cover other dimensions than simply oral and written communication using conventional media (see discussion in Jewitt’s Challenge paper).

2.4      Location of Work and Learning

One of the major impacts of ICT has been its potential for changing the location of work. For many years pundits have predicted the end of conventional work patterns, emphasising the scope for remote working and telecommuting. In fact change has in many respects been less dramatic and rapid than they have suggested. Felstead (2008) provides a more considered assessment of the changes that have taken place in recent years and the prospects for the future.

Take-up has been much slower than many predicted, due to resistance from both employers and employees for a variety of reasons (including the need for social contact and fears of loss of control).  The majority of today’s workers still work in offices everyday, despite the fact that ICT allows many of them to work anywhere. Felstead argues that the potential for further increases in teleworking, homeworking, etc, is significant. Reinforced by pressures to operate in a greener fashion, such changes could accelerate in the next few decades, with significant implications for education and learning. Most existing offices are designed to minimize operating costs and preserve hierarchy and status, rather than inspire creativity and fuel collaboration among workers. The level of job satisfaction for most workers in this situation appears to be in decline. There are therefore good reasons to consider alternative approaches. Despite this, Felstead considers that the most likely path will be for much slower change than the advocates of such flexibility predict.

Atwell and Costa (2008) focus more specifically on the potential for integrating personal learning and working environments. Their review covers drivers of the development of present learning and working environments and probable, possible and preferable futures in this area. It considers whether the idea of the “industrial” model of schooling may be becoming dysfunctional, and suggests that long established trends towards the separation of learning and working environments may be reversed. This could have very significant implications for education.

Other more general aspects of the location of work across geographical areas are considered in Green (2008a). Her review focuses on various aspects of location and place. It highlights the way in which location can influence economic prosperity and labour market outcomes, in both positive and negative ways. It also considers how education can help to engender positive virtuous circles, as opposed to negative and vicious ones. There are also important tie-ins here with some aspects of the “green agenda”, including links between the economy, technology and the environment.

In the US and UK there has been a great deal of emphasis recently on creating “Green jobs”.  As EMSI (2008) demonstrate “Green jobs” are NOT occupationally specific. They are more related to sectors, especially on the outcome of particular activities aimed at driving households or other organisations to act in more environmentally stable ways (e.g. reducing energy use or pollution, or improving the environment in measurable ways). These might include various types of construction activity including refurbishment to achieve green objectives; investment in new transport systems, energy production transmission and use, waste management, scientific activities connected with these issues, etc.

Identifying sectors and public and private funding aimed at achieving these ends can help to identify changing skill needs associated with it. In a few cases these may be unique to green type activities (e.g. environmental specialists) but more generally will cover the full spectrum of occupations.

2.5      The meaning of work

Work has many different meanings. There is no single generally agreed definition, either in general parlance or amongst different academic disciplines. A number of the Review Papers commissioned for the Working and Employment Challenge touch on these issues.

Overell (2008) argues that this is a complex matter. For many people work is a key element in defining who they are. His paper focuses on the meaning of work, and identity, covering the quest for meaningfulness and purpose. It includes a discussion of topics such as “craftsmanship”, “professionalism” and the nature of occupational identity. The search for meaning is generally regarded as a positive thing. However, Sennet (1976 and 2008), amongst others, has argued that this is not always the case. The search for meaning can be counterproductive and the cause of unhappiness (see detailed discussion in Overell (2008)). There is also evidence that for some people work is becoming less meaningful and, if some more pessimistic expectations are borne out, this could become more not less common. Brown et al. (2008) argue that the future vision of a knowledge-based economy, with meaningful and well paid work for all, may be a

mirage. For many people such high expectations will be dashed.

The issue of identity is taken up in slightly different context by Bimrose (2008). She argues that the role of careers information, advice and guidance (IAG) is becoming an increasingly important element in helping people to understand themselves and their place in the world. In an increasingly complex economy and labour market, providing well informed information, advice and guidance in a holistic manner is a key element in ensuring a match between what individuals choose to study and the kinds of skills and qualifications that they will need as they leave formal education and enter the world of work and employment. This review emphasises that career guidance is very much at the centre of societal change and can be seen as an attempt to help all individuals attain their potential (not just those at the upper end of the spectrum). This can also help in promoting broader societal aims, including enhanced economic performance. She emphasises that current practice in the area of much careers guidance lacks cohesion and needs radical reform.

Other review papers conducted for the Working and Employment Challenge also touch on these matters. Hogarth and Bosworth (2008), as well as Powdthavee (2008), both begin their approach to the issue from a traditional economic perspective. Work (primarily employment in the formal economy) is seen as the main means of obtaining an income for most people, a necessary “evil” to ensure bread on the table, clothing on backs and a roof overhead.

Powdthavee’s (2008) main focus is on the drivers of “happiness”. In traditional economics approaches work is regarded as something to be avoided (or something to pay others to do), as opposed to leisure or play, which along with income is regarded as contributing positively to “utility”. Powdthavee suggests that recent research suggests that “happiness” is only loosely related to income. If anything it is relative income that is important, but it is clear there are many other factors that influence happiness or “Subjective Well Being” (as measured by asking respondents direct questions about their lives). Such results suggest that there may be a need for people to be better educated about what makes for happiness and well being. This line is reinforced in the latest report from the Children’s Society (2009).

Subjective Well-being is crucially dependent on employment/unemployment. The strongest results suggest that Subjective Well-being is negatively affected by unemployment (separate/ independent of any impact on income). The stigma attached to unemployment is still very strong for most people. The implication is that it is much better to keep people in jobs than give them unemployment benefit.

However, there is some evidence that this may not be the case for a growing minority. The evidence reported by Dex (2008), suggest that the impact may be modified (reduced) if many people in the same area/community are also unemployed. There is also some evidence that some young people have different attitudes from previous generations motivated by a strong work ethic.

The evidence presented by Powdthavee (2008) also suggests that Subjective Well-being may also be negatively affected by long hours of work (raising work-life balance issues), but the links are complex and the direction of cause and effect uncertain.

He also explores the link between Subjective Well-being and education. Again the results are somewhat mixed. Generally, it appears that education may exert a positive effect but it can also lead to unsatisfied expectations. The link between Subjective Well-being and leisure choices is also covered. This includes time spent watching TV, time off work in the formal market economy, voluntary activities, etc). Much of the evidence is mixed, with unclear directions of cause and effect.

Powdthavee (2008) suggests that more emphasis should be placed on understanding what determines happiness in general education, in particular, getting people to understand that higher income is not necessarily the route to happiness. There are however, dangers of a moral hazard and of producing a self-fulfilling prophesy here, with a strong risk of undermining incentives and motivation.

Round’s (2008) review highlights the possible value associated with voluntary work (related to both the care of the environment as well as other people), and suggests some possible links here to green, sustainability and related issues. But the reliance of the market economy on incentive systems, based on rates of pay and images of the “good life” followed by celebrities, suggest that developing alternative life styles and mechanisms for distributing incomes and work may not be so easy. Thus although there may be some tendencies towards less conventional values and attitudes towards work in the formal economy the latter is likely to remain at the centre of most people’s lives in the UK for the foreseeable future.

The management of the workforce also raises a number of tensions relating to issues of control, autonomy and discretion. As noted by Green (2008), there are indications that much work is becoming more closely controlled and that individual workers have less discretion and autonomy over their work. This is closely linked to measures of worker satisfaction and individual happiness.

2.6      Why work is important

The discussion in a number of the reviews (especially Overell (2008), Powdthavee (2008) and Dex (2008)) highlight that the positive aspects of work (income, self esteem) are a key element in well being. While well being is usually not very precisely defined it is generally agreed that it encompasses more than material living standards. Powdthavee’s (2008) review confirms that, while there is no simple answer to what determines well being and happiness, having meaningful work certainly helps, while being unemployed has very negative effects.

The possible future balance between paid and unpaid work is one of the many topics taken up by Dex (2008) who, along with Felstead (2008) and Atwell and Costa (2008), consider likely trends in the location of work (home-working , telecommuting , etc) as well as the location of learning activities. They suggest that, while some tendencies towards increased home-working and involvement in unpaid work will continue, the role of paid work (in the formal market economy) will remain central for most people. Dex’s (2008) review focuses particularly on the place of work within the family. It outlines the links between these trends and social benefits, as well as general attitudes for work. For a minority living off state benefits will remain significant, and general attitudes and motivation to work will be difficult to turn around. Some of these and other more general trends in paid employment are also picked up in the review by Gambin and Wilson (2008). These are discussed in more detail below.

The reviews by both Overell (2008) and Powdthavee (2008) suggest that productive work is one of the keys to well being. Traditional economic approaches emphasise that work (especially in the formal economy) provides income as well as socio-economic status. A job is one of the main means of ensuring social inclusion (see Wilson et al. (2007) for a more detailed discussion of the role of skills in raising individual incomes as well as the probability of finding and retaining employment).

As noted in Wilson (2008) life satisfaction is not the same thing as happiness, but evidence presented in the Atlas of European Values suggests that Europeans generally are quite happy compared with the rest of the world. Having a formal job makes a crucial difference to life satisfaction. Survey evidence reported by Liddle and Lerais (2007) suggests that most people appear to be satisfied with the jobs they have. Even when they are short of money, 84% of Europeans declare themselves very satisfied or fairly satisfied with their working conditions. Conversely concerns about unemployment are confirmed as a crucially important negative influence. Having people in paid work is also of crucial importance for the State (as well as individual citizens) because it increases national output and tax revenues.

As trends towards a knowledge economy gather pace, with increasing proportions of the workforce employed in higher level occupations, many jobs could (should?)  become more satisfying and less routine. Such jobs, employing better educated workers, are generally more vocationally orientated, as well as offering higher incomes, which (all else equal) should increase job satisfaction.  However the trends set out in Section 2.3 suggest that not all jobs will fall into this category. Over the period to 2020 and beyond, there will also be growth in the number of less intrinsically interesting jobs. Not all jobs can be made fulfilling and rewarding. Many will remain relatively undemanding, routine and repetitive, but not subject to substitution by machines.

2.7      Boundaries of work

Overell’s (2008) overview considers various other issues related to the meaning of work, including semantic and philosophical debates, as well as social scientific perspectives. His review poses the general rhetorical question of whether people “work to live” or “live to work”, as well as raising more general issues about the meaning of work and links to happiness and fulfilment. The distinction between work and leisure is in some situations much less clear cut. What some would regard as leisure or even play, others do for a living. Sports-people, artists, entertainers and others earn a living doing what many would regard as play.

But this blurring of boundaries is not solely restricted to professional and related groups. Many other people see their work as a vocation that defines their lives.  This covers wide parts of the occupational spectrum, including many professional and associate professional jobs (e.g. doctors, nurses, teachers, lawyers and scientists). Many of these types of jobs have seen substantial job growth in recent years as highlighted below. Pride in work is not restricted to such areas. For many craft workers there is a natural tendency to take pride in the application of hard earned skills and natural talent. Such aspects can be seen in many other jobs, although perhaps with less emphasis compared with the aspects of drudgery and mindless repetition that characterise many routine and elementary occupations.

If someone is in the right job for them from this perspective, work can cease to be regarded as something to be avoided and becomes play or at least an activity from which positive utility can be obtained. When an activity becomes something that has to be done (often, but not necessarily, associated with externally imposed deadlines and targets and loss of autonomy) there is a danger that it becomes a chore. The classic economic distinction between work and leisure then comes back into play. This can apply as much to the professional footballer and musician as to those in more conventional jobs. Self motivation and discretion, rather than external control and target setting, are probably the crucial distinction. Even without external constraints and demands people can stress themselves by self imposed targets that are not easily achievable. Success at the highest levels in such activities requires considerable effort, perseverance and dedication, all of which are normally regarded as attributes of work rather than play.

This evidence suggests that work and employment are closely tied up with identity and personal perceptions and esteem. Round’s (2008) review emphasises that while work in the formal (paid for market economy) may play a crucial role here, work in the informal economy may be for some people just as important.

Round (2008) focuses upon the boundaries between informal and formal work. The former includes a range of activities from housework, care of family members and DIY through to the so called “black economy” (more frequently now referred to as the “grey economy”), and criminal activity. Round (2008) challenges the “commodification” thesis that argues that market based work in the formal economy is driving out informal activity.  He highlights that even in developed countries informal work remains a key part of most people’s lives. His analysis draws on a range of research, documenting such activity, and highlights some of the possible implications for education and learning. These include the need to explicitly recognise the importance of such activity and especially the difficulties that those working informally can face in accessing education in a Life-long Learning context.

It is clear from the broad range of research evidence reviewed that the boundaries between work, play and leisure, and between formal paid work and informal work, have shifted significantly over the past half century. This is as a consequence of technological developments, as well as changing social values and economic circumstances. Further substantial change can be expected over the next 50 years.

It is also clear that both individuals and society more generally often have ambivalent attitudes to work and employment. On the one hand, as in the more traditional economics approach, work is seen as something to be avoided and minimised.  On the other hand, taking a broader sociological and psychological perspective, work is often regarded as a key element in how individuals are perceived, both by themselves and others, and crucial to feelings of self-worth and personal esteem.

The reviews referred to here, as well as other evidence covered below, suggest that paid work in the formal economy is likely to remain the normal means of generating income for the vast majority of households. However, it is also clear that most people also engage in various forms of informal and domestic work. In some cases this veers into the grey economy (tax avoidance) and, at its most extreme, criminal activity. On a more positive note, voluntary work is also an important part of many people’s lives.

Technological developments, especially those associated with ICT, seem likely to open up many new opportunities for informal activities often linked to virtual worlds rather than conventional realities.

2.8      Work-Life balance

There has been a long running debate on “Work-Life Balance” which is dealt with in Hogarth and Bosworth’s (2008) review. This begins with a discussion about the traditional economic analysis of the choice between work and leisure. It highlights the long term negative trends in the number of hours worked in the formal economy in a typical week, as well as more general patterns of work over the life cycle (increasing length of holiday entitlements and (until recently at least lower) the falling age of retirement)). It also touches briefly on other aspects of working patterns such as some increasing trends to use of unsocial hours/ shift-working. They emphasise general trends towards greater flexibility in working patterns (both from an employer and employee perspective). They consider how these choices have been shaped by technology, as well as economic and other considerations. The latter will include the effect of changing attitudes and values, as well as regulatory interventions by the State.

There are many other concerns about undesirable trends in Work-Life Balance. As noted by Hogarth and Bosworth (2008), there is evidence of increasing stress resulting from work intensity, despite long-term trend reductions in average annual hours worked in most countries, and improvements in accident rates, etc.  Many workers report that work has become more stressful and that their working hours are incompatible with family and social life. This seems likely to be exacerbated over the next few years, as the structural economic changes highlighted in Sections 2.3 are raising the demand for skills and forcing ever more rapid changes in work organisation, content and pace.

A related factor is job insecurity, with (as noted by Dex (2008) and others) general trends towards increases in various forms of less secure employment (such as self employment, part-time employment and short term contracts), many of which seem likely to continue to 2020 and beyond. For many, the idea of a single job for life has disappeared. There will be the need to re-educate and re-train to refresh and update skills and knowledge required to take part in the formal economy, as well as some aspects of the informal economy (see Round (2008) for more details on the latter).

Despite negative trends overall in the length of the official working week, there is still a strong culture in many organisations in the UK of long hours worked in the formal workplace (although perhaps not as extreme as in the USA). A study by the Families and Work Institute, (2005) in the US showed that one in three American workers feel overworked, with half claiming to be “overwhelmed”. Such behaviour is seen to be an indication of dedication. Attitudes in the rest of Europe seem to place a less positive view on such behaviour. Such practices can be argued to place too much emphasis on labour input as opposed to output, ignoring negative impacts on productivity. Attitudes on the continent appear to place less emphasis on “presenteeism” (being seen to be in the office or work environment for long hours).

For some time there has been public policy concern at a European level about extended hours and over-work. The working time regulations are a clear indicator of this. Overwork is argued to be a prime cause of both physical and mental illness. The pace and intensity of work is increasing in the modern workplace. Britain still has much longer working hours than many of its European neighbours. While pressure from the State (especially at European level) seems likely to continue to reduce weekly hours, economic considerations are likely to work in the opposite direction.

The simple division between work and life assumed in much of the discussion of a work-life “balance” is of course debatable. For many people life and work overlap and interact. Drawing a clear cut boundary between the two is not straightforward. As noted in the previous section many people gain meaning to their lives through their work (whether paid or not). However, this does not mean that there are no conflicting tensions between demands from the workplace and the home, either for the individual or the household.

Attitudes to work are also changing. While many may still define themselves by their work, others increasingly define themselves in other ways (for example by the hobbies or other activities they devote themselves to). Work for an increasing number of (especially) younger people is just a means to an end. A recent survey for Business Week in the USA is indicative.  The results suggest that whereas for the older generation (55+) 28% live to work, for those aged 25-34 this falls to 16%. The vast majority of the younger generation work to live and they do not appear to regard the vocational aspect of working as so important as older generations did.

2.9      Education and work

There are many links between work, employment and education. Much of the recent socio-economic discourse on this topic has emphasised the role of education (and training) in preparing people for work and providing them with the skills, knowledge and attitudes they need to succeed in the workplace (see Green (2008) and Bimrose (2008)). Education has always been seen as having a crucial role as preparation for work. This has various aspects, including social conditioning and instilling of attitudes, as well as imparting knowledge and work related technical skills.

There is a large body of evidence suggesting that education makes a huge difference to individual employment prospects (see the various Skills in England assessments conducted annually since 2002 which provide a comprehensive review of the research evidence (e.g. Wilson et al., 2007)). Better educated and qualified individuals are much more likely to find and retain jobs. They also tend to end up in better paid jobs. Individuals investing in the acquisition of qualifications tend to have higher incomes and increased productivity.

As noted in Wilson (2008), previous generations of schools in Europe and the US can also be seen as aimed at producing workers suitable for the factories, offices and other workplaces (instilling discipline, attitudes and basic skills). Educational systems in the second half of the 20^th Century were designed to deal with the relatively standardised requirements, a homogeneous population and the relatively well established social order of the post-war industrial society. These circumstances are however changing, which has some significant implications for education.

Of course, education has many other roles in addition to preparing individuals for work:

• Understanding of  the world and society;
• The ability to take part in civil society (citizenship, social capital);
• Broader cultural and social aspects;
• A consumption activity (learning for its own sake);
• Contribution to the “knowledge, innovation, research & development (R&D) triangle”.

The latter is especially significant for long term economic development. The links between education and work and employment are not just a one way process, with work and employment implying a demand for certain types of education.  Education, through its role in the “knowledge, innovation, R&D triangle” plays a crucial role in determining the path that scientific technological, economic and social developments take. Competitive pressures from globalisation are placing an increasing emphasis on these links. Ensuring the right skills are in place to be able to innovate and compete at the leading edge of scientific, technological and economic developments has become a top priority for governments across the world.

Education can therefore be seen as a key driver of change rather than simply a passive response to the needs of the labour market and the economy. Education’s role in innovation and technological change is reviewed in Bosworth (2008). He argues that, despite the assumptions adopted in some economic models, technology does not simply fall like manna from heaven. It is dependent on investment in human capital in the form of R&D and knowledge.  The R&D, knowledge, innovation triangle is a key element in the drive for improvements in productivity and economic competitiveness. Education, especially at the highest level, plays a key role in this process, with Universities being key players in much research, development and innovation. Bosworth’s review focuses on the nature of the relationships involved, and on the implications for work, employment and education.

Bosworth (2008) emphasises that this implies a demand for:

• Those qualified in STEM subjects (possibly quite small in number but playing a crucial role);
• Management and leadership;
• Entrepreneurship.

A particular concern highlighted in a number of official reports in both the UK and other countries relates to the crucial role of those qualified in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects. This is emphasised in a growing body of research evidence reviewed in Wilson and Gambin (2008). This emphasises the fact that much investment in new technology is dependent on a solid base of science, technology, engineering and mathematics personnel. Although not all technological developments rely on such skills, they do lie at the core of most technologies. A firm foundation in such disciplines is probably a key element to achieving prosperity. The implication for education of encouraging the study of such subjects in school through to University is therefore an important issue that needs to be addressed. Bosworth (2008) also emphasises that it may be important for the general population to have a sound grounding in such disciplines, if they are to be able to critically appraise scientific issues and to make informed judgements about products and services based on such knowledge.

Innovation therefore needs people with management, leadership and entrepreneurial skills plus STEM and related skills (Wilson and Gambin, (2008). But it is not just about a core elite.  For markets to grow, a well informed population is needed to act as customers for the new products and services produced.

Many of the reports reviewed in Wilson and Gambin (2008) suggest that there is evidence that not enough young people in the UK are choosing to undertake science and engineering studies. This may be a problem across Europe more generally (see Wilson, 2007). Many young people shy away from difficult technical subjects such as mathematics, physics and engineering. There are also concerns about vicious circles arising from a lack of good teachers in these areas, further discouraging young people to take up such choices. Careers guidance and advice also has an important role to play here.

The “knowledge triangle” requires a sound science, technology and engineering foundation if the UK (and the EU more generally) are to compete successfully in the global economy. This requires high level skills in this area. Countries such as China are currently investing much more heavily in these areas.

Of course it is not just about science and technology, other aspects such as innovation and design in the more creative and cultural industries and services will also be very important. The UK has many people working very successfully in these areas. There will also be a large range of jobs in the future associated with the care of the environment and care of people. But much of this is underpinned by a sound understanding of science, technology (especially ICT) and engineering.

Other Challenges within the BCH programme are also covering the issue of general “creativity”, but it is also important to retain a more technical or economic definition of “creativity”. The common conception of “The Creative Industries” seems to be about making films or music, creating art, fashion and design. The work of people like James Dyson, Alec Issigonis, Frank Whittle and Barnes Wallis. The significance of innovation in engineering, technology and science can be crucial and world changing. See for example Christiansen’s (2008) work the Innovator’s Dilemma/Solution, etc. Such innovation and creativity in industry more generally has an economic impact that dwarfs impact of fashion-design and the “creative” media. But combing science and art disciplines is not easy. All too often school timetables work against this, with physics and other pure sciences set against the arts and humanities.

The role of education in encouraging entrepreneurship and improving management and leadership is also a key feature of much recent research, (see Tamkin, 2008). Having the right resources and skills is of little value if they are not managed appropriately. Tamkin’s review emphasises the importance of leadership and good management, as well as entrepreneurship (see also Wilson and Gambin, 2008).  These factors become increasingly important for economies to compete successfully in global markets. This applies both at national and local levels, and in public and private sectors.

Based on this general body of evidence, governments from around the world have tended to place increasing emphasis on the importance of the economic benefits of education (based on the idea of investment in human capital). This has often been linked to ideas about the knowledge economy and it has been suggested that the UK needs to invest more heavily in skills to take advantage of these trends.

Some have questioned whether or not the evidence represents cause and effect. Ideas such as credentialism, and the so called screening hypothesis, suggest that education does not actually increase productivity, as implied by the human capital model, but simply helps to identify more able individuals. Others (Brown et al. 2008) suggest that future employment growth in the “knowledge economy” may be a mirage, and that the demand for the highly qualified could fall off, as competition from abroad undermines the advantageous position that older graduates have held, and as huge increases in the supply of well qualified people across the world swamp the market.

The idea that initial education can be provided at the start of people’s lives that will serve them until they retire has become increasingly outmoded. Unwin (2008), focuses on the ongoing need for learning in the workplace, especially the more vocational aspects. She emphasises not just the general need for life long learning but focuses on what workplace learning might look like; what kinds of leaning practices will be important; who will pay; who is responsible; and delivery mechanisms.

Brown (2008) takes this a step further, focusing on the idea of developing expertise and moving beyond a focus on workplace competence, assessment and qualifications. His paper focuses on trends in the specifications of “expertise” in different jobs and what people in them are expected to do. It highlights problems with a competence based approach, especially one focused around sectors, emphasising the complex nature of many jobs, which cut across discipline and sectoral boundaries. He also highlights the importance of collaborative working and supporting of others in the learning process, rather than an emphasis on individual achievement and acquisition of qualifications.

The workplace is also an important site for learning. Education does not just take place in classrooms and at the beginning of people’s lives. Unwin (2008b) considers these issues in some detail. The quality of much learning in the workplace is very variable and existing practice may ingrain inequality.  When done well, it can lead to self development, and the formal education sector may have some real lessons to learn. In many cases, however, employers often resort to external means to obtain skills rather than trying to grow them in-house. Recent upward trends in use of migrant workers in many sectors is a clear example of this (see MAC 2008) for more detailed discussion.

Some individuals see real relevance to learning at work and a chance to shine at work. But the trends are mixed; there are falling numbers doing apprenticeships of the traditional kind and concerns about the quality of many new modern apprenticeships. Problems in finding places for apprentices are only likely to be exacerbated by the current recession, as employers cut back on both employment and training.

It is also worth recalling that educational establishments are also themselves workplaces, but that there is often failure to follow best practice in approaches to learning and related matters (see the discussion in Unwin (2008b) for various examples).

Keep (2008) provides a broader overview of the links between the labour market, skills and education. This focuses upon a number of key trajectories (both historical and over the future) in the labour market generally, including: occupations, work organisation and management. As well as changing employment patterns it also considers pay, earnings and incentives, highlighting a growing polarisation between and within occupations. Keep argues that this has significant implications for the incentives for investment in education. His paper considers the different types of incentives to learn and invest in education, both financial and non financial. He suggests that for many people there is a lack of incentives for learning which needs to be addressed urgently. He concludes by drawing out the implications for economic and distributional outcomes, including who benefits and why, and how education might influence this. The paper highlights some of the problems of barriers to access such as class, (path dependence, implications for identities) and financial resources.

Of course, in principle, education can help to challenge and reduce such barriers. The present liberal, free market orthodoxy relies on market forces to determine rates of pay (although the UK does have minimum wage) imposed by regulation. In some other countries, (e.g. Scandinavia) social values impose a much narrower distribution of incomes and rewards, with a broader way of valuing the work people do than the size of the pay packet. This raises the question of whether further government intervention is necessary in the UK to change market signals (e.g. raising the minimum wage or trying to changing social attitudes towards inequality, as in the Scandinavian model). It also raises the question of whether or not the educational system can help to reinforce or replace weak market signals.

The UKCES is currently undertaking an in-depth review of investment in training and education by both individuals and employers, looking at the barriers and rewards to such investment. This is still to report but may throw some further light on some of these issues.

2.10    Other aspects of work that are also changing

Other sociological factors, governance, culture and environment are also key drivers of the changing face of work and employment. Associated with the broad changes in employment structures described above are many other social and related changes. Liddle and Lerais (2007) set out some of the underlying currents accompanying these structural changes. These include increased emphasis on individualisation, household restructuring (including increasing divorce rates and more people living on their own), and the changing role of women in the formal economy. Other aspects include some indications of movement away from consumerism and increased concerns to meet the new challenges related to the environment. As both Liddle and Lerais (2007) and Dex (2008) note, there are many complex links with the Welfare System and concerns of how to deal with problems of inequality and social exclusion.

The paid work ethic lies at the core of the present Government’s social and economic policies. Policies such as Welfare to Work and the New Deal, emphasising the importance of employment opportunities for all, have been central to its strategy to assist a whole range of disadvantaged groups, including the long-term jobless, lone mothers and the disabled.  All these groups have been encouraged to join the formal economy and take up paid work. Active participation in paid work is presented as a crucial test of social citizenship. A small minority of the population have resisted or avoided such engagement. This raises concerns about how to achieve a set of shared values as well as ensuring general consent to established rules and laws. A significant number of people are dependent on benefits, and given the current state of the economy this is likely to become of increasing significance in the short-term at least. This is also linked to issues of child poverty.

A number of the Review Papers suggest a significant increase in various forms of flexible working, (e.g. Dex, 2008). The term flexible working has been widely used and encompasses a vast range of different practices (for an extensive review see Bosworth and Wilson (2007)). This includes various aspects of time and location, patterns of working, as well as contractual status. A key issue is whether flexibility refers to the interests of the worker or the employer. Flexibility for one may mean uncertainty and precariousness for the other. Traditional discussions of flexible working cover aspects such as part-time working, self employment and sub-contracting all of which have shown some tendency to rise in recent years (see Gambin and Wilson (2008) or Bosworth and Wilson (2007) for more detailed discussion). More recently new technologies have facilitated the development of remote forms of working (including home working, although the latter has a much longer history, quite separate from the effects of ICT).

Many commentators and some researchers have emphasised that “jobs for life” are no longer the norm. But there is still a remarkable stability in most working lives in the UK according to more considered research. Taylor’s (2004a) review of the ESRC programme of research in this area confirms that these patterns are changing but only very gradually.  Undoubtedly many things are changing and 50 years from now things will look as different as today’s labour market does from that of 1959, which was dominated by industrial forms of working (focused on primary industries and manufacturing rather than services).  But many features will remain unchanged.

3.      Implications for the Beyond Current Horizons programme

3.1      The Children’s Plan

The DCSF launched the Children’s Plan in 2007 (DCSF, 2007). In considering which of the trends and issues identified in Section 2 are most likely to impact on education and related matters it is helpful to highlight some of the key points set out in the Plan. Its key aims and objectives are based around:

• Supporting parents and families in bringing up children;
• Enabling children to fulfil their potential and develop as far as their talents can take them;
• Enabling children and young people to enjoy their childhood as well as to grow up prepared for adult life.
• Ensuring children’s services are designed around the needs of children, young people and families rather than around professional boundaries;
• Prevention of failure and identification of potential problems in advance.

The Working and Employment Challenge is especially critical for the second of these, focusing on what employment and work in adult life might actually mean in 2025 and beyond. It also has a critical role to play in the last issue, helping to identify what might be the big employment risks in future, and highlighting how education (and training) can help to avoid failure and disappointed expectations, including avoidance/prevention of children ending up as “not in education, employment or training” (NEETs), and prevention of disengagement and exclusion from society as adults.

3.2      Stylised facts: Key Trends and Issues

3.2.1   Work

Much of people’s daily lives is taken up by work, be it paid or unpaid or in the formal, informal or grey economy. Work is crucial to the economy and society as a whole. Directly or indirectly it meets both basic needs for food, clothing and shelter, as well as luxury goods.  Directly it generates the goods and services produced or enables them to be purchased. Indirectly it satisfies many non-materialistic needs, some of which are often achieved as much by the act of undertaking it.

Many people attach value to work for reasons other than its immediate economic benefits, including the fact that it helps to establish identity and provides a sense of purpose, self worth and self esteem, as well as offering opportunities for social interaction and personal relationships.

Despite the traditional economic view of work as a “bad thing” (something to be avoided or minimised because it takes up time that could otherwise be spent in more enjoyable (leisurely) pursuits), many people (possibly the vast majority) enjoy work, particularly its social side. For some people, work provides them with an important social network and may provide a main avenue through which they meet friends and potential partners. This idea of work as a social venue/hub is likely to continue to be important.

Many people also view work as having intrinsic values, helping to define who they are. Most people appear to be satisfied with their work. Productive work is considered one of the keys to well being. For people who are intrinsically satisfied and fulfilled by the work they do, there may be a blurring of the line between work and play/leisure.

Some people take up work that defines them – such as religious figures, teachers, and health/medical professionals. Some people take up work in activities that are generally viewed as leisure activities – such as professional athletes, people working in creative sectors (musicians, painters, actors, etc).

Others may also find internal fulfilment in having a job that creates a finished product of which they are proud (e.g. craftsmen, artists, etc.). For people who are driven by intrinsic motivation, and for whom fulfilment is considered a priority, work that is satisfying is as important for their well-being as well as its economic productivity.

On the negative side, work may be an activity in which some people participate only to meet the general societal expectation that they should work. Such people may resent the fact that they have to do menial jobs to secure a relatively poor income. Others may resent the fact that they lose part of their incomes in the form of taxation to support others who are able to work but do not do so. There are complex relationships between work, income and status that have bearing on such attitudes.

3.2.2   Key drivers of change and implications for employment patterns

The two key drivers affecting work and employment will be technology and demographics, but these will be shaped by political, social and economic factors. Globalisation, it has been argued, is best regarded as an outcome of these inter-related factors.

Changing patterns of international trade will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the fortunes of many sectors and significant implications for the jobs and incomes of many people. This is not a zero-sum game however. Success for other countries does not necessarily imply negative consequences for UK employment. However, the UK like other developed economies will need to constantly strive to keep pace with developments in other countries (let alone move ahead in the game).

Technological developments mean that many products and services can be produced at ever decreasing cost by ever fewer people. This raises important issues about control of such technologies and how incomes and rewards are distributed.

There are many dramatic technological developments on the horizon which will have significant implications for employment and work, including how it is done and where it is undertaken. Those linked to ICT are likely to be especially significant. Although in some respects ICT may be reaching its natural limits, and is regarded by some to be “played out” in strictly technical/scientific terms, its implications for employment and work are far from finished. The potential for further dramatic changes in productivity are likely to be significant for the foreseeable future.

But the take up of these developments is not inevitable. Just because something is technically feasible does not mean it will happen. What does happen will depend on both the benefits and costs. These may be both economic and social, and include various constraints and obstacles to be overcome. It is important to avoid adopting a technological determinist view. What will happen will be tempered by social and economic factors and behaviours.

There is often an important element of path dependence when technologies are taken up, decisions and actions made early on may predispose economies and societies to particular paths.

It is also important to recognise the “lump of work fallacy”. There is not a fixed amount of “work” to be done that technology can take over, inevitably leaving people previous employed in doing such work “unemployed”. Society can reorganise itself to create new jobs that are valued and desirable.  Markets are powerful mechanisms that can help to ensure societies and economies can adjust to the shocks caused by technology and other factors. Previous mechanistic extrapolations of the impact of ICT have failed to recognise these factors, and as a result grossly overestimated the negative impact on employment, etc. In principle, there is no limit to the “work” that can be done in caring for each other, and caring for the environment. The problem is in designing institutions and systems that can provide the incentives and mechanisms to ensure that such work is valued.

3.2.3   Conventional trends and views

Formal paid work in the market economy is likely to remain crucial to the well being (income and employment) of the great majority of families and households in the UK for the foreseeable future. Formal work will continue to be both the key source of income and status, as well as a key element in identifying how people see themselves.

Informal work will however also remain important, and this can have rather different requirements for education and learning than those from formal work.

Patterns of work in the formal economy will continue to change, with many trends obvious.

• Specialisation, use of capital, implementation of new technologies, etc, will result in continuing structural changes by sector (growing importance of services and “weightless” activities associated with the knowledge economy.
• Demand for skills will continue to rise in many areas, but there may be some polarisation.
• There will be increases in demand for many higher skilled occupations and for formal qualifications, especially at higher levels. But not all jobs will require a PhD; polarisation means rising demand also for occupations such as sales, personal service occupations and unskilled low skilled work.
• There are also strong trends in patterns of employment status (towards increased part-time working, self employment, temporary work, etc).

But many trends will probably be less extreme than some commentators and the media expect, for example in areas such as homeworking and teleworking, etc, which have grown much less rapidly than predicted and which will probably continue to change only slowly. There is likely to be a growing need for generic skills, such as:

• literacy;
• numeracy;
• communication;
• team working;
• problem solving;
• IT skills;
• management and leadership.

Falling hours worked per life time (part of the fruits of technological change) will continue to be taken in the form of greater leisure (less time spent doing work in the formal economy). Key trends in this area include:

• a long term trend of falling average hours per week working in the formal economy;
• falling days per week (longer weekends);
• falling weeks per year (longer annual holidays);
• falling years per lifetime (earlier retirement).

Although there are some opposing trends, such as presenteeism (and the long hours culture), as well as staying on at work until a later stage in the life cycle because of extended lifetimes and concerns about pensions.

While projections are always hedged with caveats the most likely outcome over the medium to long term seems to be that globalisation will continue the patterns summarised in Section 2.7 (and described in much greater detail in Wilson et al. (2008 and 2009).

Subject to avoiding a major slump, the most likely developments in employment patterns present a reasonably optimistic picture for the UK.

• Technological change will result in structural changes by sector, and changing demands for occupations and different types of skills:
• These structural changes, will involve job losses as well as new jobs;
• There will be rising demands for many skills (as measured by occupations; qualifications (especially at higher levels); and key/core/generic skills of various kinds);
• But there is also likely to be polarisation, with growth in numbers of general and more mundane service jobs, as well as jobs for those working in the knowledge economy.

Technological change will also open up new opportunities for employment (as well as learning) in:

• Activities related to the environment and climate change;
• Virtual worlds.

Ways of distributing income will continue to evolve (including the use of both market and non market mechanisms).

The boundaries between work, (formal and informal), rest, recuperation, leisure, play, are probably becoming more blurred.

There is increasing recognition of the importance of R&D and innovation in maintaining economic growth and competitive performance. While this is mainly tied up with education at the highest levels, there are implications for education more generally. In particular, the role of those qualified in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects in the R&D, innovation, knowledge triangle is regarded by many as key. This has particular implications for education at school level, where there are serious concerns that the UK may be falling behind its main competitors. Of course science and technology are not the only disciplines that are important for innovation and economic success.

3.2.4   A critique of some less conventional perspectives

While there is general agreement on the main drivers of change, there is much less of a consensus about the direction and scale of changes that may take place and how this may affect the worlds of work and employment. There are of course many possibilities. These include much more pessimistic scenarios associated with global economic meltdown or other catastrophes (some of which are highlighted in BCH (2007)).

The greatest pessimists see a spectre of mass unemployment, growing insecurity and widening social divisions.  On the other hand, there are some who point to much more optimistic possibilities, with technology and changing attitudes having the potential for liberating many employees from dreary, dull, repetitive and degrading work.

Such alternative visions are rarely based on any systematic theory and usually lack any kind of historical perspective or sound empirical foundation. Undoubtedly very significant changes are possible which could have profound implications for many individuals and groups in society. But final outcomes will be moderated by inertia and stickiness in many institutions and behaviours. The final outcomes will almost certainly be less dramatic than either of these two more extreme views suggested here.

The most pessimistic pundits paint a vey gloomy picture, involving a complete breakdown of market based systems, breakdown of basic institutions, loss of trust/faith, anarchy, much greater central control, and dictatorship. Such apocalyptic visions of mass unemployment worldwide, while not completely beyond the realms of possibility are not very likely (although perhaps a little more so in the light of recent events in financial and related markets than would have been thought the case by most people a few months ago).

The populist argument is that capitalism has failed. Undoubtedly capitalism is at bay, and there have been immediate pressures for greater government intervention and regulation. However, as noted below, for all its flaws, the market based economy remains the only serious game in town, with the capability of allocating resources and distributing incomes on a world wide scale.

Some have seen the recent events in financial and other markets as heralding the end of capitalism, but to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of its death seem somewhat premature! The problem is in finding robust and generally accepted mechanisms for linking paid work to incomes. Although capitalism and free markets are currently getting a bad press, they probably remain the best (most efficient) way yet invented for allocating resources amongst competing needs. For it to work effectively, capitalism, and indeed any alternative voluntarist system, requires a set of legislative and socio-economic structures that the vast majority of the population are prepared to sign up to. The alternative, state control and intervention, has severe limitations and in extremis can lead to very undesirable political as well as economic outcomes (as illustrated by the performance of Stalinist states).

It is clear that the present economic situation remains very uncertain and many economists think that the recession will be much deeper and longer lasting than most governments would hope. The possibility of a long lasting slump cannot be ruled out. This would have significant implications for the labour market, the economy and public finances.

As Round (2008) notes, some have argued that there is a growing resistance to “commodification” of everything and ask if there is an alternative to the conventional market based system. They argue that governments and communities, by de-coupling production and consumption from the commodified realm, could in principle open up alternative development paths, with possibly significant implications for education. Round (2008) argues that work in the informal economy is of great (possible increasing) importance for many people.  For those that earn their main income in the formal economy, informal work can nevertheless be very significant, while for others the informal can be their only way of obtaining income and status. Work in the informal economy can take many forms, including increasingly opportunities opened up by ICT.

One example of this is the suggestion by thinkers such as Castronova (2005) that it is possible to develop such systems in “virtual worlds” rather than what most people regard as the “real world”. The use of virtual worlds for such purposes is only just being explored but there are already indications that there are significant possibilities for achieving real world outcomes (as measured in real dollars) from activities carried out in virtual worlds. While there are significant examples of such activity in some parts of the world, these remain very tiny compared with activities in the real economy and are likely to remain so for immediate future, although they do appear to offer considerable potential for some work and employment, especially in areas such as training and education in situations and circumstances that are difficult or expensive to replicate in the real world.

Another potentially important area of divergence from conventional economic trends and trajectories relates to the Green agenda. Growing awareness and acceptance of the role of mankind in climate change is causing many to question key assumptions underlying the capitalist model (consumerism, materialism) and advocating significant changes in values attitudes and behaviours. If these continue to gain ground this could have implications for both the economy and labour market, as well as education.

The more pessimistic views about employment are centred on three main concerns:

• Technological change will displace jobs;
• Global trade will undermine UK businesses;
• The patterns of jobs created will not match the skills available.

The first concern has been around since the Luddites. While it is undoubtedly the case that technology displaces some jobs, there is no inevitability that employment as a whole is reduced. Such a notion is based on the “lump of work” fallacy. There is not just a fixed lump of work to be done that automation can take over. In the long run, free markets will adjust to find useful things for people to do, whatever their skills. The initial predictions undertaken in the 1970s about the possible impact of the ICT revolution were for mass unemployment in the 1980s, (e.g. Jenkins and Sherman, 1979). This turned out to be misguided. More considered analysis, which recognised the importance of market adjustments, came to much less pessimistic conclusions, although recognising the negative aspects for those directly effected (Whitley and Wilson,1987).

Similar remarks apply to the issue of where economic activities are undertaken. There is not a fixed amount of output that is to be divided up between countries. World trade is not a zero-sum game. Improvements in standards of living for the Chinese do not necessarily imply a reduction for those in other countries. Not all jobs can be outsourced to India or China (or done by a machine). Many services which involve personal contact fall into this category. Health care and teaching/ mentoring involve a high level of emotional intelligence. Other jobs involve the application of creativity and imagination. While such jobs are not exclusive to the developed world there are factors which favour their location in particular places. As Florida (2005) emphasises, these preferred locations score highly on the three Ts – Technology, Talent, and Tolerance. Education has an important role to pay in developing such characteristics.

Some pessimists have also argued that those lacking the capabilities to acquire the skills needed in the knowledge economy will struggle to find employment because of the falling number of unskilled jobs in the UK. This ignores the fact that current evidence suggests the number of low skilled jobs is actually rising in some areas.

Others have argued strongly that the “knowledge economy” is a mirage in terms of generating many new jobs in the UK. Brown et al. (2008) suggest that, as a result, there could be a significant excess supply of UK graduates.  They suggest that the knowledge economy (with the vast majority of jobs falling into this category) is a mirage, and that therefore graduate targets set by the government are misguided.  The rest of the world is catching up fast and also wants the high-end jobs. In this type of scenario, they argue that the UK economy would struggle to achieve full employment and maintain sufficient levels of high quality jobs. To some extent this view contains some elements of the notion of a fixed lump of work, and assumes little scope for market adjustment. However, it does suggest that the optimistic picture set out in the Leitch targets and the Lisbon Agenda may be much harder to achieve than many politicians would like to suggest.  Recent events in the world economy are likely to exacerbate these difficulties.

3.3      Key dimensions of uncertainty

Technology: The uncertainties here are not so much about technology itself, but more about its possible impact on the labour market and economy, as well as education. Many technological trends are not particularly uncertain, but their impact on the economy, labour market and education may be.

The possible impacts are likely to be moderated by economic and social factors. The role and significance of virtual worlds may be one particular area of uncertainty.

The Economy: Many trends are quite robust and almost inevitable, but there are significant uncertainties about the overall success of the UK economy in the face of increasing globalisation and the current recession.

Possible key dimensions and uncertainties here relate to:

• how quickly the world and UK economies recover from the current economic crisis (is this a temporary blip, similar to previous recessions, or a more fundamental shift that results in a much longer term depression in economic and labour market prospects, more like the 1930s than the 1980s);
• how successfully the UK economy will compete with other countries the global economy (in particular, whether or not the aim of securing employment in high level jobs linked to the government’s vision of the knowledge economy is realistic).

Market versus Regulation: Linked to uncertainties about the economy are political uncertainties about the way society is managed and controlled. Some have suggested that the recent financial crisis and subsequent impact in the real economy signals the demise of the free market economy. Others argue that markets remain essential to both efficiency and economic prosperity (as well as political freedom).

The key dimension here is:

• the operation of free markets; versus
• a command economy (centrally administered by the nation state or possibly major multinational corporations).

Social/political values: The market versus regulation dimension also has a parallel with other more general socio-political values. These include:

• Individualism versus collectivism;
• Materialism versus humanism;
• Work to live versus Live to work;

3.4      Potential implications for education

3.4.1.  The Meaning of work

Liddle and Lerais (2007) note that, “there is an issue of ‘respect’ in our societies for those in poor quality jobs”. Given that education is increasingly regarded as the main route into a decent job, this message can come across as very threatening to those groups in society who have traditionally failed in the education system.

It has been argued that we need to find ways in society of valuing ordinary jobs more.  Some countries (e.g. Nordic countries) have managed to achieve this.

At present, as Brown (2008) argues, there is an unhelpful hierarchy of formal qualifications, with many people being excluded and unvalued.

This is also linked also to pay, and concerns about equality and social exclusion, but it is not obvious what alternative there is to the market mechanism. The Nordic countries offer some hope in this direction but they have also had severe problems in recent years, so there are no easy solutions.

Overell (2008) raises the question of how to encourage people to do things well and to take pride in their work at all levels. Licences to practice may be part of a solution. Better job design to try to instil meaning (at societal, state and organisational levels), is also important. This requires a greater awareness of the significant trends that technological change and globalisation are imposing on the labour market. It also involves the need to equip management (including policy makers at a macro level) with the knowledge and information they need to help structure society and design jobs for all people emerging from the educational system. Moves beyond the traditional idea of the educational system passively producing people with skills suitable for use in the economy and society. It will also involve preparing all individuals to make the most of the opportunities they face and talents they possess.

Most people agree that there is a need for more and better (more fulfilling) jobs. The EU New skills for New jobs articulates such a vision, but it is not clear that it is attainable (at least in its more naïve version, with Europeans cornering the market in high level, knowledge economy jobs). The polarisation of jobs in terms of skill requirements seems a more likely outcome.

This raises the question of what can be done to equip people best for this brave new world. To some degree societies can also make choices about the mix of jobs available by setting and raising standards. Some countries such as Finland (for example) have been able to raise the proportion of higher quality jobs and raise basic standards of literacy throughout their population.

It is clear that not all jobs will be knowledge based. Polarisation implies a need for many lower skilled workers as well as highly skilled and qualified “knowledge” workers. Education needs to prepare people for this reality, as well as developing high level STEM graduates. But focussing on the elite and the rest, risks real  problems of division, exclusion and alienation. There could also be major problems of mismatch and disappointed expectations.

Education terminating at 16, 18 or even 21 is unlikely to equip people for what they will need in the whole of their lives in the 2^nd quarter of the 21^st century (if it ever did). There will be need for frequent updates and new learning. Education needs to equip individuals in such a way that they are empowered to deal with whatever they may face. It is important to recognise the need to avoid the idea that it is possible to plan in precise detail. But this does not negate the need for detailed projections of what the world might look like. On the contrary these are an essential component of the labour market information needed to guide and inform individuals so that they can make informed choices and decisions. But the priority is for distributed decision making not mechanistic central plans. Having said that, society, the State and employers do have some scope to structure jobs in general terms to meet the expectations of learning empowered citizens, as indicated by the experience of the Nordic States. There are broad social and political choices to be made, as well as organisational and individual ones.

3.4.2.  Work and happiness

One way to happiness is to do more fulfilling things at work. Cognitive action also keeps people more active generally, which has other benefits.

There is a need to make the population more generally aware of these findings, and to educate children and others better about what determines well being. This includes factors such as:

• Emotional intelligence;
• Networks and family;
• Health;
• Moderation of expectations and aspirations regarding income, etc. (or at least more realistic and reliable information on the possibilities facing most people.

The aim should be to enable young people in particular to make well informed decisions.

We also need better thought out policies on adult education, reflecting the changing nature of work and employment (recognising the increasing rarity of “a job for life”) as well as the demographic and other trends that are increasing the need for a Life-long Learning perspective.

3.4.3.  Work and values

The balance between freedom (unfettered markets) and regulation (command economies / central control) may be changing as a consequence of recent events linked to the “credit crunch”. However, recognition of the importance of market mechanism means that we are unlikely to see a reversal of the general trends towards decentralised decision making. Technological developments generally also point in the same direction, with knowledge and information being more widely distributed. However, there are some countervailing tendencies, with concerns that some multi-national corporations (and maybe some Nation States) will maintain an undesirable level of central control.

Recent trends have resulted in a much greater focus on individualism, self and materialism / consumerism (Thatcherism). There has been an apparently inexorable move away from collectivist / social values. But this may contain within it the seeds of its own destruction. Unrealistic aspirations and expectations, generated by the media and others, may lead to a backlash.

There are some signs that these trends may be reversible. Growing concerns about the environment and world poverty are one indicator. The political dimension may also be showing signs of a demand for a change in values, with the election of Obama in the recent US presidential election.

There is a case for education to play a key role in this process, by helping to inform citizens about these issues, so they can make well informed judgements.

One aspect of the increasing focus on the individual and self that is particularly pertinent relates to possible tensions between women’s rights and priorities (including the right to follow a career in the formal economy) and children’s needs for parental care (Children’s Society (2009)).

Another aspect relates to citizenship, and ties in to more general social values; valuing what all others do (ensuring greater mutual respect). Much more could be done to change perceptions of the value of different types of work (especially in certain vocational areas and low level skills).

General social values are not fixed. As exemplified by Scandinavian countries, they can be changed in a direction that promotes greater equality in terms of both pay and status, emphasising the need to provide a living wage for important but low skill/low status jobs. There are often cultural aspects to this (e.g. the value in France, placed on high quality food, which has implications for status of occupations such as waiters and chefs). It is conceivable that the recent financial meltdown could help towards a reassessment of fundamental values.

3.4.4   Work-life balance

Education also has a role to play in the area of Work-life balance. Traditional individual work/leisure choices (where work is assumed to be bad, something to be avoided) are morphing into more general family choices and lifetime decisions.

Various trends are significant here. Reduced average weekly hours worked, parental rights, carers rights, etc, are all becoming increasingly regarded as important and appropriate.

There are a number of specific educational implications:

• The first relates to education as a sector of employment (in principle, work-life balance issues should be both recognised, and policies put in place to ensure  a reasonable balance – in practice, these seem to be more common in the breach than the observance in the educational sector!);
• Education might be expected to help individuals to understand and achieve a good work-life balance, including facilitating occupational and social mobility;
• Lastly, a good work-life balance opens up the possibilities for additional demands on the educational system, as individuals take up possibilities for undertaking additional education, either as an investment or a consumption activity.

3.4.5   The demand for skills and formal qualifications

The general consensus is that there will be a growing need for more highly educated people to meet the needs of the knowledge economy.  But, Brown et al. (2008) warn that it is unlikely that this will be the case for all jobs and suggest that there is also likely to be significant growth in jobs that require no or low formal qualifications.  There is a real danger that the targets set by politicians for those acquiring higher level qualifications will lead to excess supply and dashed expectations. China, India, etc are catching up at top end of the job spectrum, and are also looking to expand high level, knowledge intensive employment, competing directly with the UK for such work.

However, there is no limit to human ingenuity and the possibilities for developing new products and services that require such inputs. There is no fixed lump of such work to be done. Nevertheless there is a need to reconsider the proposed expansion of graduate qualifications when the economy may not keep pace with the need for such qualifications, with the risks of discontent this will create in the workforce, as well as potential moves further away from gender equality. Brown et al. (2008) argue that there has been a failure of policy makers (both in the UK and in Europe more generally) to recognise reality. Aspirations to become a high value added, purely knowledge based economy may be unrealistic and unachievable.

It is also important not to see education as having a purely passive and reactive role.  While much of the discussion is about people getting the right skills for jobs that are likely to emerge, there will also be opportunities for people to develop their own jobs their own work. Encouraging people to take a more proactive role, and encouraging entrepreneurialism can help to fill any gaps that might emerge in terms of job opportunities generated by the existing population of employers. In many respects the climate for people wanting to start businesses is likely to be made easier by technological developments.

All of these possibilities could have very important implications for the curriculum.  At present State schools run a common curriculum up to 14, yet the scenario sketched out by Brown et al. (2008) and others suggests  very different demands for skills (with polarisation, across both occupations and geographical space).

Keep (2008) also stresses the importance of incentives. A polarised earnings distribution makes for weak incentives for participation in education for all but a lucky few. This poses some significant challenges for educational policy. Simple changes to the curriculum are unlikely to resolve this. Major changes in priority may be needed which recognise the need to cope with very heterogeneous demands for skills. These may well be strongly polarised, with very different impacts at upper and lower ends of the educational spectrum.

On the one hand, there will be increasing demands for highly creative, technically skilled, knowledge workers. On the other hand, there will also be many jobs requiring limited skills and low expectations and ambitions. For many individuals who are less successful than average in terms of educational achievement, these are the only jobs they may be able to find. The old 11+, which marked 80% of the population as failures at aged 11, has now been replaced by a more general divisions at 14+ and 16+ between those able to go on to become graduates, and the rest. And even for many of those that do achieve graduate status, the kinds of job opportunities on offer may fail to match their high expectations.

In this case supporting such people to develop own businesses (and therefore their own jobs) may become of increasing importance. This would place increased significance on measures to support and encourage entrepreneurial activity both within education and more generally. The experience of previous recessions suggest that many graduates unable to find jobs in traditional areas of graduate employment take on new identities and develop new niches (Purcell et al. (2005)).

3.4.6   Demands for specific skills

The trends broadly summarised in Section 3.4.5 are identified in much greater detail elsewhere in this document and in the large body of research aimed at anticipating changing skill demands. While there are some concerns about the quality of such information (as a result of inadequate investment in pertinent data and methods (both at a UK and a broader European level)), a number of key trends have been identified. The Leitch (2005 and 2006) reports identify gaps in skill requirements for 2020 and beyond:

• at the level of basic skills (including literacy and numeracy);
• for intermediate skills (including the lack of a sound vocational base); and
• at higher level relating to management and leadership.

Basic skills

At the level of basic skills, too many young people are still not acquiring the most basic skills, including literacy and numeracy. Many fail to acquire the fundamental skills at primary school, and are turned off and disengaged almost from the start. This requires intervention at primary level to break the vicious circles of disadvantage and deprivation that underlie these patterns. In many respects this is no different from what is already happening with Sure Start/ Early Years qualifications/ Numeracy & Literacy strategies. What is distinctive about the projections is that these needs are likely to intensify, both in terms of the numbers and proportions of jobs that will require at least these minimum requirements, as well as the scope of those basic skills (which are likely to include a broader definition of literacy than simple oral a written communication skills).

Intermediate skills (especially vocational skills)

Not for the first time in reviews about the UK’s skill needs, Leitch has identified a gap at intermediate level in the skills profile of the UK. Intermediate skills refer here to a broad group of skills below graduate level but about basic levels, especially various vocationally orientated skills (both technical knowledge and practical experience). Tomlinson (2004) highlighted the need for greater emphasis on vocational courses at this level, arguing for parity of esteem with more academic courses. The Government’s response was to introduce a range of initiatives, including Train to Gain, Modern Apprenticeships and the new Diplomas. However, as noted in the following sub-section, for a variety of reasons, these initiatives seem unlikely to provide the long-term solution.

Management and leadership

Management and leadership are crucial to economic performance. Many UK managers remain poorly qualified.  Although it is not clear that formal qualifications such as MBAs, etc, necessarily improve matters, it is clear that the economy will demand more of this particular cadre of workers in the future.  There is a need to encourage more talented people into management and leadership courses.  The importance of using methods of education that emphasise teamwork is also stressed.  There is also a need to explore failure and the lessons to be learned from it, as well as successes. However, there are also some key questions to be addressed about whether or note effective leadership can taught.

STEM qualifications

There are some particular concerns about adequate supplies of STEM graduates. This involves getting policy in schools as well as higher education right. It is as much about getting the right quality of students undertaking such courses as simply boosting or maintaining numbers.  According to (XXX) not enough of the most able students are choosing to undertake STEM subjects.  There is a need to prevent young people closing out the options of undertaking STEM subjects too early. There are also concerns about perception of what work in these areas might look like. The definition of the term engineer in many young people’s minds is often muddled and few have clear picture of what work of a professional scientist or engineer is like. There is a need for better informed and impartial careers guidance.

Other issues relating to the demand for skills

Green (2008) also highlights the need for greater emphasis on communication skills (including interaction with others) as well as formal qualifications. This suggests the need to incorporate learning on emotional literacy, interpersonal skills, and negotiating skills into learning curricula, especially at further and higher education levels. IT skills are also likely to remain in high demand, so the educational system will need to continue to supply learning on IT skills and internet use.

The Leitch reports emphasised the need to focus on the demand for skills. This begs the question of demand from whom? The term is often ill defined and can be used to refer to the demand for places on courses of education and training by individuals as well as the demand for skills by employers to undertake their day to day operations. The UKCES (as reported in HCIUSSC (2009)) has emphasised that it is the needs of employers that is the key issue (rather than demand from individuals, which is in many respects more of an indicator of the eventual supply of skills (as they acquire qualifications and accreditation)). But others have questioned whether employers always know what they need. Hogarth et al. (2009) suggest that some employers may fail to recognise that they need to upgrade the skills of their workforce in order to meet competitive challenges. The quality of jobs and learning is often not given a high profile by many (unqualified) managers, who like people to be in the same mould as themselves.

There are number of other key issues that could also be raised here. Not just about whether employers know what they want, but also the question of who should be responsible for delivery of sector specific skills. However, this goes beyond the remit of this particular paper. For further discussion see the ingoing review by UKCES (2009).

Finally, there are also some significant issues related to the demand for skills linked to the Educational workforce, including concerns about recruitment and retention of requisite numbers, and quality of teachers and lecturers at all levels of the system. In some cases there are problems of vicious circles (for example, poor or inadequate teaching in science and technology or maths) discouraging students from taking up these subjects, leading to shortages of well qualified people in these disciplines and difficulties for the public sector to recruit and retain high quality staff in these areas.

3.4.7   A misplaced focus on formal (academic) qualifications?

The debate at both national and European levels about changing skill needs over the next few decades tends to focus upon formal qualifications, especially in a UK context on academic qualifications. This is understandable as these are relatively easy to measure and monitor. But these raise some important questions about whether this is the correct focus. Not all education and training is formal. Much learning takes place informally and has significant value. This raises questions about whether or not the focus on academic qualifications is desirable and whether a more diverse set of skills/competencies should be encouraged? It also leads to questions about whether less traditional teaching and learning approaches, less focused upon the acquisition formal credentials might promote greater engagement amongst some individuals who find traditional, formal education and schooling more difficult.

Until relatively recently, early school leavers could find employment, even if they had few or no formal qualifications. It is clear that those who leave early without good qualifications are increasingly finding themselves marginalised. These problems are more serious for boys as they are more likely to leave school early and without formal qualifications. Although the current generation of school leavers is much better qualified than its predecessors, a significant proportion have still not reached upper secondary (NQF level 3) standard.

Current plans will effectively lead to the raising of school leaving age to 18 in the UK. This is likely to lead to growing problems of dealing with those less academically inclined children who are already disengaged. There is an urgent need to re-engage those for whom a traditional academic approach has little relevance. Traditional class-room based instruction simply does not work for many such children.

In the UK there has also been a general move away from emphasis on vocational education and training (exemplified by the government’s rejection of many of the recommendations of the Tomlinson (2004) report). The new diplomas currently being introduced still place a huge emphasis on theoretical rather than practical work, despite claims to the contrary. There is still a real problem in getting most employers to engage with this agenda, and finding work placements remains a key stumbling block. There are also still real issues of lack of parity of esteem for the vocational route. For many it is still perceived as a two tier system, with FE still being widely regarded as inferior to schools (sending  the wrong messages about the value of vocational courses compared to more academic ones, see (Coffield, 2002).

There is a need for much greater employer engagement. In many cases employers are being discouraged from getting involved by increasing levels of red-tape and  demands for certification. Many skilled people are not allowed to train or pass on their experience and knowledge because they do not have the formal qualifications/ credentials demanded in the FE sector. There are also difficult questions about how to provide practical work experience and knowledge for young people. More and better incentives are needed to encourage employers to release people. Current ways of connecting education and work are often not working well.

There is an increasing awareness of special needs of many youngsters (with growing numbers with dyslexia, ADHD, speech and language problems). Such children need special support. Many will never achieve NQF level 3. Increasing mental health issues amongst the young also have significant implications for happiness, stress and eventually for burdens on the NHS.

Brown (2008) questions whether initiatives such as the Lisbon Agenda, and the current government’s emphasis on achieving a 50% HE participation rate, are moving things in the right direction. He concludes that a radical rethink is needed and that schools and other providers of education should seriously consider whether the focus on acquiring formal qualifications is misplaced. He suggests that more emphasis needs to be placed on progression measured in other ways, and on encouraging collaborative working and support for the learning of others, which some might view as “cheating” and working “off task”. Of course this type of initiative raises problems about how to measure success (and failure), and in particular the difficulties of avoiding the free ride problem in measuring contributions to team work. Brown suggests that social expectations around what constitutes success and what constitutes a contribution to an activity are likely to change, facilitated by a range of technologies that can support new forms of assessment and data capture. This will change the context in which educators are operating.

Too much focus on formal qualifications for all can increase perceptions of lack of self worth for those that are non-academic. If they have not achieved a C+ in GCSE in English and maths at 16, they are branded as failures, leaving them wondering what is the point of education? There is a case to be made that school leaving should not be so tightly linked to age, nor to the achievement of particular types of qualification.

Employers also need to be encouraged to look at young people “in the round”, not just at their formal qualifications. Partnership with employers is needed, but many are not interested in opening up their workplaces for work experience, apprenticeships and work-place based learning generally (sometimes for good reasons, health and safety, economic factors, etc).

There will be a continuing need for innovation in the classroom and in educational establishments. The priority is to find ways of making education relevant to young people and the changing face of work and society. See, for example, the innovative practices of the Walker College (2008) and other schools such as Barrs Hill in Coventry. Universities have long recognised the value of learning by teaching. Young academics learn and consolidate their knowledge by taking classes. Older staff find that teaching helps them to extend and develop their research. But this is much less practised in other parts of the educational systems, yet it can work equally effectively at all levels. In Barrs Hill school in Coventry, for example schemes such as “language ambassadors” take the opportunities presented by a multicultural school population to allow children to take pride in their culture and language by teaching younger children in nearby primary schools about these things. This promotes self esteem and self confidence, as well as multicultural understanding and valuing others. Encouraging such youngsters to take GSCEs in Persian or Hindi also helps to encourage recognition of the value of such knowledge and skills, yet such schemes and practices remain exceptional rather than the rule.

Other examples of innovative practice include Motorvate which is aimed at those of a non-academic bent. It involves teaching young people about road safety, how cars work and are maintained, as well as giving them an opportunity to learn to drive. It is aimed at reducing accidents and joy-riding amongst young males, helping them to learn about the law, highway code and the impact of car crime. Such schemes can help to encourage pride in work, as well supporting the learning of others.

Assessment in the workplace is generally less focused on formal qualifications. Workplace based assessment reconnects teaching, learning and assessment. It helps to focus on Life-long Learning and active knowledge transformation for a practical purpose. The work of Brown (2008) and others suggest that the current focus on formal qualifications and credentials is misplaced and seriously question whether low level qualifications (especially post 16) add any real value for those that acquire them. Brown (2008) argues that the focus in the Lisbon agenda, etc, on moving people upwards through well defined skill levels (defined by formal qualifications attained) is misguided.  Progression in the labour market should be the main policy goal, but this is less easily measured and achieved by policy focused on the control manipulation of the supply side (numbers on courses and numbers acquiring formal qualifications).

Qualifications are frequently seen as an end, whereas they are often more of a means to an end. They provide an indicator of moves towards a more knowledge based society and knowledgeable population. Because they are relatively easily measured and monitored they tend to be the main focus of attention rather than what happens to the individuals in the process of acquiring them such as changes in individual competencies. There is a need to reconsider what 11 or 16 years of initial formal education is for, and to draw out the implications. For example, this might involve placing more emphasis on:

• Supporting the learning of others (collaborative working less focus on personal achievement);
• More open ended solutions, rather than  following a strict and narrow curriculum;
• A curriculum more focused on work skills;

There is often an implicit assumption that if we get education for young people right then all will be well.  But a sole focus on initial education is inappropriate. As emphasised by many authors, learning does not stop at 16 or even 21, and people need to be equipped to continue life time learning.

There are some important technological aspects to this. Knowledge and information are in many respects becoming more widely distributed, although there are also some countervailing pressures, with some aspects of this being concentrated in just a few organisations. The more general trend of increasing distribution of knowledge is making it much easier for individuals to tap into what they need, as and when they need it (just in time). This has significant implications for learning and knowledge acquisition.

Some people question whether the industrial (factory) model of schooling is becoming dysfunctional and out of date. There are some indications that personal learning and working environments may be converging. This may affect the traditional dichotomy between academic (brain) and vocational (manual) work and learning.

Learning is increasingly becoming integrated within the workplace. Learning does not suddenly stop after 11, or 16 years of initial education. But the implications of this for formal education could go in various directions, depending on how policy and schools, etc, react and adjust to these possibilities. For example, State schools may adjust to the new environment by proactively embracing new technologies and taking on new roles, or they could find themselves becomingly increasingly replaced by learning opportunities offered in the workplace, or privatised educational establishments, including virtual organisations.

3.4.8   Life-long Learning

Workplace learning, Vocational Education and Training (VET) and Life-long Learning  are likely to become more closely connected. VET is especially crucial for the middle group of jobs and people left out by the polarisation of skill structures identified in Section 2. Vocational education and training should not be seen as remedial.

The trends identified in Section 2, including the continuing rapid change in the structure of employment and jobs and the ever escalating and changing skills required in most jobs, means that there will be a general need to prepare the workforce for jobs that require continual learning, and to prepare the appropriate training courses to meet these learning needs.

There are other related educational implications:

• The need to recognise the greater number of significant work life transitions that most people will have to make;
• The need for up-skilling throughout lifetime;
• The need to focus on individual skill sets rather than occupational skill sets;
• The importance of mastery of a knowledge base;
• The importance of working in teams;
• The importance of supporting the learning of others;
• The need to allow for transfer between contexts;
• The potential for exploitation of virtual world, technologies, etc.

3.4.9   Location of work and learning

Work is increasingly being detached from fixed and traditional locations, but the process is slow and the pace has frequently been exaggerated. Collective office space is becoming increasingly commonplace (hot-desking, etc). Home-working may be expected to grow, but probably only modestly (see Felstead (2008)). Maybe around 20% of workers by 2025 will be working from home or hot-desking.

But this kind of working requires particular skills and discipline. There may be some significant educational and learning implications, in particular helping young people and adults to learn to cope and prosper in such a world.

Working at or from home relies heavily on time management skills, but also on being able to draw boundaries between work and non-work time to have work-life balance. People who need to do this kind of work may need to be psychologically profiled and trained to check they can cope with the isolation and boundary issues and recognise emerging health problems. This includes educating people to occupy space rather than possess it.

It is also worth emphasising that learning occurs as a result of participation: “bumping” into people results in informal learning opportunities. Working at home can lead to isolation and problems associated with this, although hot-desking can sometimes lead to more such interactions than is the case for those working full time in isolated offices.

3.4.10             The importance of place

Place is an important dimension in the links between work, employment and education. Education can play a key role in helping to break local vicious circles of deprivation and disengagement. Obviously this is not the sole or necessarily even the key factor. Infrastructure, including transport, plays a key role (Green (2008a)).

For many multi-national companies the centre of gravity is moving away from the UK to elsewhere. Such companies, especially if they are foreign owned may recognise no strong links to local economies and populations. Their commitment to the UK may be modest, although foreign ownership can have some benefits such companies often having greater emphasis on High Performance Work Practices (HPWPs), etc.

Educational providers can play a more active role in local economic development.  Examples of US and Australian experience suggest that this can be an important part of strategies to set up and nurture local skills as set out in Section 2 (see also Eberts, 2008, EMSI, 2006, and Green 2008a)).

Many citizens and employers do demonstrate a strong loyalty to “place” and take civic responsibility very seriously. Such attachment to place can have strong influences on local economic development issues, and needs to be tapped. There are lessons to be learned from other countries about the ways in which educational establishments such as FE colleges can better serve their local areas by getting actively involved in economic development issues, rather than seeing themselves as simple passive suppliers of education and training. In the East Coast of the US, for example, colleges are actively involved in trying to ensue that conditions are right for inward investment into their localities by providing the right kinds of education and training both for initial labour market entrants and for older people. This includes those that may have been displaced from employment as some jobs are made redundant by technological change or other aspects of globalisation (EMSI (2008)).

Ethnicity and diversity brings new challenges at a local level (with links to past patterns of inward immigration. Concentration of ethnic groups in particular localities is increasing, with Leicester soon to be the UK’s first major city with the white indigenous population forming a minority.  There are a growing number of businesses run by members of the ethnic minorities, but this does always not guarantee a rosy picture for employment conditions for ethnic minority groups. Such employers are not always paternalistic (e.g. the recent Primark example of clothing suppliers exploiting their workforces).

Eberts (2008) argues that place specific policies are needed, focused on the demand for skills by employers (e.g. encouragement of HPWPs, Richard Florida type amenities; regional partnerships; and involvement of local FE colleges in economic development). He highlights a number of key features:

• Business as the main customer should be the main focus of this aspect of education;
• Outcomes and objectives should be agreed, quantified and tracked (SMART);
• Local organisations (including educational institutions) need to become more entrepreneurial, problem solvers, and stakeholders;
• The need for good labour market information, including projections to allow markets to adjust, as individuals make more informed decisions in a rapidly changing global economy (but note that this is not about trying to mechanistically and centrally plan to match skills supplies to developing needs).

Eberts (2008) also advocates education and training for disadvantaged groups to assist social inclusion and enhance social mobility. Particular initiatives may be needed in local labour markets with high unemployment among ethnic minorities and other disadvantaged groups. There may be particular need for effective training in manual skills, vocational training and courses starting and managing one’s own business (which includes coping with uncertainty and managing fluctuating income) for those displaced by the technological and other changes. It may also be necessary to give greater consideration to the welfare system’s response to handling uncertain income flows.

3.4.11             Educational demands from the informal economy

For the great majority, involvement in the informal economy is in many ways growing in significance, although the formal economy is still the main source of income and self esteem for most households. In the short term, economic circumstances (the recession) may force more people down the informal route (including the grey economy (and in extremis, criminal activity)). Informal work could be a more preferable alternative for many than employment in the formal economy in low skill, low wage jobs.  This involvement can be based around community/networking/ caring for others, as well as for the environment. This includes various types of voluntary work.  ICT also offers some new possibilities, including the exploitation of virtual worlds, although as noted in Wilson and Gambin (2008) the use of ICT also brings with it some risks of negative consequences.

All this needs changes in public policy (e.g. attitudes towards and support for entrepreneurship and innovation at a micro-level, as opposed to that carried out by large corporations), and the need to operate a more socially orientated economic/ humanist model.

It is a moot point to what extent entrepreneurship can be taught. However there is certainly a role for education in explaining to young people the importance of entrepreneurial activity in generating new goods and services and jobs. According to the review carried out by Wilson and Gambin (2008), there is evidence that the UK has a generally good record in providing a good environment for “doing business”, and for generally encouraging entrepreneurial activity. One key area of concern is that there appears to be a considerable fear of failure. This may be another area where education can help, by emphasising that risk of failure is an inevitable consequence of such activity, and encouraging a realistic appreciation of the potentially great rewards as well as risks of such activity. There is considerable evidence that people can learn from failure and education can be refocused to encourage this.

Other implications for education include:

• Making young people more aware of possibilities of the informal economy;
• Encouraging awareness within schools of young people currently engaged in caring for other family members (which affects their own education);
• Rethinking how the educational system might make contact with such carers to ensure their educational needs are met (ICT might help);
• Ensuring Life-long Learning, provision and access to those involved in the informal economy as well as for those in the formal economy;
• Identifying those in ethnic minority communities, working in family businesses and others disengaged from the formal economy who are missing out; again ICT may offer new and better ways of doing this.

There are also possible implications linked to trends in unpaid (e.g. voluntary) work. These include:

• Educating the younger generation about the costs of care for older adults, what care is, and how society should solve this growing problem of care in an ageing society;
• Educating for more equal gender balance in the amounts of informal care hours for older adults provided by households;
• Formal flexible working arrangements for employees to cope with care needs of older adults;
• Greater attention to child care provision to make sure quality grows and becomes more uniform and accessible in all areas, through systems of quality control, or licensing or inspections;
• Attention to the uniformity across local areas in quality and quantity of after-school and holiday care for school aged children;
• Training up a care workforce for older adults, which might be heavily dominated by immigrant labour, for quality care provision.

There are also implications for those living off benefits (which is likely to become of increasing significance in the short-term at least). Educational policy needs to be aimed at breaking the cycle of disadvantage that is often at the root of this. Family breakdown is of course an issue across all socio-economic groups, but as Dex (2008) it is especially severe in terms of its impact on children for those at the bottom of the income distribution. Dex (2008) suggests a number of specific policy implications:

• Parenting classes could be important in tackling low achievement and the effects of disadvantage (possibly involving the development of “all age” schools, thereby fostering a culture of Life-long learning).
• Parenting classes could be made mandatory for prospective parents when pregnant, as part of the antenatal ‘clinic’.
• Early intervention into the cycle of disadvantage at pre-school ages 3 -4 is likely to remain a top priority, and it may be necessary to spend more on this if the percentage of such children from disadvantaged families goes up as seems likely.
• The majority of children coming into compulsory school (5+) in future are likely to have had some child care, but only a minority will have had full-time care. This may require remedial action.
• Given evidence that suggests that children are disadvantaged by marital breakdown and lack of male role models, high divorce rates and high lone parent rates will lead to many children suffering emotional problems during school life, which will require remedial action.

3.4.12             Values, attitudes and motivation

A number of the reviews have highlighted changing social and economic values and how this relates to both work and employment and education.

The loss of deference in society generally is also reflected in schools. Such trends seem likely to continue. This has implications for how schools are organised, how they are run, as well as the aims and manner of conducting school inspections. There may be some lessons here from industry, where evidence from the workplace suggests that participatory models produce better results.

Other aspects include:

• Education to tackle bullying cultures;
• Balancing control and autonomy in the classroom to help better equip children for the world of work;
• Educating for identifying and handling stress;
• Recognising that the premium on learning and self direction will be high in the workplace;
• Education to promote personal development and Life-long Learning.

As noted in the recent report by the Children’s Society (2009), young people in particular are now bombarded continuously by the media to take part in consumerism, driven by fashion and other factors. It is argued there, and by others (e.g. Bauman, 2008), that there has been a steady shift towards self-interest and individualism, and away from altruism and societal values. Such discussions highlight the dichotomies between:

• Individualism versus collectivism;
• Materialism versus humanism;
• Those who work to live versus those who live to work.

The market economy and liberal values have come in for considerable criticism recently, especially following the excesses associated with the credit crunch.  The problem is finding some other generally acceptable mechanism, other than free market forces, to allocate and distribute incomes and jobs.  Consumerism is what keeps the economic world going round, and keeps most people in the UK country employed.

3.4.13             Careers guidance and advice

The dramatic structural changes taking place in the economy and the labour market will have significant implications for the types of jobs that will be available in the next 10-20 years, as set out above. This will result in the need for much better labour market information to inform citizens about these possibilities. This is recognised in the New Skills for New Jobs Initiative that has recently been launched by the CEC (2008).

Education at the beginning of the 21^st Century now faces the challenge of much more demanding requirements from employers; heterogeneous populations (with ethnic and language diversities and very high expectations); and a much less well established social order. All this has to be dealt with in the face of rapid technological, demographic and economic change (including in the short-term the imminent prospect of what could still turn out to be a major recession). The demands of the new knowledge economy, in the context of what Friedman (2007) describes as a “flatter world”, open to much sharper and immediate competition from many directions, may require a very different set of attributes in the second quarter of the 21^st Century.

To keep pace with these developments, there will be a need for greater emphasis on retraining and lifelong-learning to keep workers up to date (given the pace of change).

Technology mediated learning may help to achieve this, both in public and private sectors.

The need for effective and impartial Careers Information and Guidance is also growing, and this is likely to become even more important. But existing practices are too often constrained by outdated and outmoded systems and approaches.

Careers Guidance needs to be more focused on empowering individual choices, based on robust and unbiased information about the realities of prospects in the labour market.

The incentives built into the system at present may not be working as intended. Too many children are being given advice to stay on at school to follow academic course of study for which they are unsuited. The incentives are often wrong, focused on putting “bums on seats” not on the child’s best interest.

Finally, increasingly there is a need for a Life-long Learning perspective.  People will need more assistance at later stages in their lives, not just during initial education.

3.5    Concluding Remarks

The role of education in the world of work and employment

The overall aims of education are to impart knowledge and understanding. A key rationale for this is to help people to participate in the economy and society, and to make the most of the opportunities they face, maximising their potential.

Key trends in the world of work and employment

Much change is in prospect in the world of work, employment and education.  But equally there is often enormous inertia to be overcome. The world will look very different beyond 2025, but many elements will be familiar and similar to today. Continuity is just as important as change, although it is the latter that tends to be the prime focus of attention in the media and popular accounts.

Many of the more extreme changes in ways of working and employment patterns that have been identified in Section 2 may well take place, but they will remain of relatively minor significance in quantitative terms. For example, the significance of teleworking and use of virtual reality, will probably remain modest compared with the more conventional “9-5″ workplace environment. This is likely to remain the norm for many. The media tends to home in on the more dramatic and extreme possibilities rather than a more sober and measured assessment of what may actually happen and its real impact.

Previous extrapolations based on technological determinism have often been way off the mark. Projections made in the late 1970s on the expected impact of ICT were for the paperless office and mass unemployment, neither of which has come to pass.  Many of the more extreme technological extrapolations currently being mooted will undoubtedly suffer the same fate.

There will also be a considerable diversity of experience, and many differences between individuals and across employment types. Social exclusion and concerns about limited social mobility remain areas of key concern.  As William Gibson has famously put it: “The future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed”. One of the key roles of education is to help address these concerns.

Technological change is also resulting in the potential for dramatic changes in the possible locations – for both work and learning.

The influence of the media and communications will increase, (focusing on star/ celebrity effects, etc), causing problems in managing expectations for many young people, whose personal experiences are unlikely to match the aspirations encouraged by such role models. Trends towards emphasis on self and individualism are likely to continue.

Implications for education

Education will have a key role to play in placing more emphasis on helping people to understand society and the economy (and their role in it). This may include placing greater emphasis on social values, and helping people to gain a broader understanding of what makes for happiness.

The importance of reliable and robust labour market information and intelligence, and sound and impartial careers guidance and advice is likely to rise.

Many of the employment trends outlined in Section 2 have strong implications for education, for education providers and for educational policy makers.

• The changing patterns of jobs will require different types of skills and knowledge;
• a need for general management and other professional skills;
• there will be a requirement for some very high level technical skills, notably in STEM subjects;
• vocational education for more young people at entry level.

But there will also be a continued need for many lower skilled jobs. Education will be needed to help individuals understand their position in the world of work. This is in part about recognising the importance of lower skilled jobs, as wells as high skilled ones.  It is also about empowering individuals, helping them to learn to take advantage of opportunities and assist social mobility.

The general demand for formal qualifications will continue to rise, driven by both supply and demand side pressures. The importance of STEM subjects will also increase, although the cadre of people needed who are qualified at the highest level will probably remain small. However these will need to be of the highest quality to compete internationally. The importance of a range of generic skills, including communications, team-working, leadership, management, business, entrepreneurial skills, is also likely to grow.

However, for many individuals the benefits of formal qualifications will be questionable, and the value of a conventional academically focused curriculum dubious.

Education will be needed not just for work, but for life:

• this includes work in the informal economy;
• it will need to be available at all ages: Life-long Learning;
• it will need to be flexible (to help ensure work life balance).

A case can be made that education is currently too “front loaded”, with too much emphasis being placed on initial education (age 5-21). There is a need to develop new mechanisms for spreading the emphasis more evenly over a life time, with rights to sabbaticals, etc, as people have longer and less predictable working lives. This raises important questions about how the present institutional framework and systems could best adapt. There are, of course, often significant problems in designing new systems, especially incentives (which often have unintended consequences). There are also many important considerations from the point of view of the individual, if a life time of learning is to be achieved, not least the question of finance.

There are a number of crucial switch and transitions points in individual’s lives (from school to work, from one job to another, job and employment shifts linked to family formation, and the move from work to retirement, etc. These are often traumatic. More thought needs to be given by policy makers to what the State can do to ease these transitions; (including financial oiling of wheels, and financial entitlements to allow investment by the individual at later points in the life-cycle (but noting the previous problems with voucher type schemes).

All this raises doubts about whether the current “factory based” models (schools /colleges), providing education and training to large numbers at the same time, are the right ones.

It also raises practical questions about what the State can do to help individuals “follow their dream”. The business advisors model is not very practical; but NIACE have suggested the need for a regular “learning” heath check. There is some evidence that, when done well, personal advisors can help (as in Connexions).

New technology will also have significant implications for the educational process and delivery (ways of learning; plagiarism (a growing problem for assessment), where learning takes place, etc). There will be a continuing need for innovation and to find ways of making education relevant to young people and the changing face of work and society.

Needs of the economy

This will have various aspects, including a distinction between the needs of those parts of the economy most linked to the global economy and those more focused on meeting the needs of more domestic and local customers.

The evidence assembled in Section 2 emphasises (inter alia) the importance of:

• the basics (literacy and numeracy), which are the keys to learning to learn;
• skills in the use of the internet and ICT are also key elements;
• lifetime learning, which will be a key feature, although much of this may be informal or conducted in the workplace rather than in formal educational establishments;
• “DIY” or self-directed learning will increase in importance and in principle has enormous potential (but it also has limits);
• “just in time learning” (e.g. searching for information and knowledge on the internet as and when required), which be increasingly be the norm;
• managerial, leadership and entrepreneurial skills;
• the need also for managers to have soft-skills including recognition of the value of their work-force.
• diversity (including the effects of changing demographics, which will have some significant implications, with particular groups (older people, ethnic minorities)  imposing special demands on the system);
• the need for an understanding of other cultures and knowledge of languages in the context of the global economy (recognising that just as there are many students (and migrant workers) coming to the UK, there is an equal potential for more few UK students and temporary migrants going to other countries).
• some analysis emphasises the likely increased demand for high level skills and formal qualifications, but others question whether this increase in the  quality of work, will benefit more than a few;
• if these more pessimistic scenarios prevail, then for many work may mean less autonomy, less time to think, inequity, stress and related mental health issues;
• there are also issues about vulnerability, with those least able to adapt being most at risk.

This will all raise many questions for those involved in providing and delivering education and training:

• How best to ensure educational opportunity for everyone throughout their lives;
• How to help those who fail to benefit from the present system (especially the socially disadvantaged);
• How to ensure that everyone has the skills they need to find and retain a decent job;
• How to identify and remove any other barriers to success for disadvantaged groups;
• How to identify the skills people will need;
• How should people be advised and guided to make the right choices;
• How can education be used to empower individuals;
• What needs to be done to ensure that education and related activities will help to shape the future in a way that benefits society as a whole?

There are also a number of educational workforce issues.  These include:

• the stresses and burdens placed on teachers and lecturers by administrative overload, and emphasis on measurement and monitoring;
• status and pay.

Overcoming inertia:

There are many sources of inertia in the current systems and procedures for delivering education and training. This reflects vested interests, and other factors leading to resistance to change. These affect:

• Government (including DCSF/DIUS), which some see as part of the problem as well as the solution);
• Employers; and
• Individuals.

At the institutional level, it is imperative that there is a broader recognition of the role of education as preparation for work for all those in the population, not just the top of the academic ability range.

For employers, a clearer view is needed of what the role of work should be in a life-time of learning and how this is likely to change. They also need to articulate more clearly how their demands for skills are likely to change.

Finally for individuals, more help needs to be given to children (in particular) so that more of them have a better understanding of the role that education plays in their future life paths, and especially their prospects of securing and maintaining gainful employment. Too many still do not see the relevance and meaning of education, and there are some parts of the country where whole localities effectively “drop out” and disengage, leading to vicious circles of deprivation.

ANNEX A

The report forms part of a much larger programme of research entitled Beyond Current Horizons (BCH), which is focused on the Future of Education.

A series of initial papers were prepared for the BCH programme as part of a ground clearing exercise designed to identify any relevant research evidence. This lead to the BCH Expert Advisory Group defining a number of key Challenge areas, each covering issues and topics thought to be crucial to the future of education.

This report focuses on one of these Challenge areas. It is concerned with Working & Employment. It builds on an earlier paper by the author (Wilson, 2008) which was one of the initial series referred to above.

The Working and Employment Challenge

There is no shortage of research and commentary on the “Future of Work”. This has received a further boost in recent months, as the uncertainties associated with the worldwide financial crisis, and the subsequent economic recession, have increased. Academics and other commentators have produced enormous numbers of books, reports and journal articles focused entirely or in substantial part on the topics of future employment and work patterns. Technology and other changes are resulting in dramatic changes in how work is done and where it is undertaken. Globalisation has become the buzz word when discussing most economic and social issues. As a result of these developments, work can now easily be broken into smaller tasks and redistributed around the world. Dramatic improvements in real time communications, including the development of “virtual worlds”, are transforming the concept of what it means to be “at work”.

Sifting through all this material has presented a very real challenge. There is often a tendency to exaggerate and sensationalise in order to sell books and newspapers. In-depth and evidence based research by the academic community often suggests rather more inertia, and places more emphasis on trends which are evolutionary rather than revolutionary. This suggests that there is often a large gap between the rhetoric and myths perpetrated by some commentators and the reality of life in the workplace. This report attempts to provide an assessment of what is really likely to happen over the next 15 years or so, and to identify what are the main uncertainties in the area of Work and Employment.

The BCH programme allocated resources to each Challenge leader to help in the task of reviewing and synthesising the evidence, including asking other researchers to produce short Review Papers on topics of key interest. In the case of the present Challenge, these resources were deployed in the following ways:

• First, a Challenge Steering Group (CSG) was set up to help:
  • to prioritise the research areas to be considered;
  • to decide what specific reviews to commission and who might be asked to undertake them; and finally,
  • to provide a general sounding board in developing the present report.
• Second, the potential authors identified were asked to prepare short review papers on the selected topics;
• Third, a series of events (small seminars/workshops) were held: to discuss the matters raised; to identify common themes and gaps; and to help prioritise the key issues with regard to the objectives of the BCH programme finally;
• A series of Quick Reviews was also commissioned to fill in some of the main gaps identified;

Challenge Steering Group (CSG)

This comprised 4 acknowledged experts in the field of work and employment:

• Professor Lorna Unwin, (Dept. of Lifelong and Comparative Education, Institute of Education);
• Professor Ewart Keep, (Deputy Director, SKOPE, School of Social Sciences, Cardiff);
• Penny Tamkin, (Programme Director, the Work Foundation);
• Professor Alan Brown, (IER Warwick and TLRP Associate Director).

The Review Papers

A total of 19 Review Papers were commissioned, involving 21 authors, many of whom are recognised experts in their chosen areas of specialism. These papers are listed in the Reference section. They cover a range of topics intended to cover the most significant issues likely to affect the world of Work and Employment over the coming decades. This list was initially suggested by the author, and subsequently refined following comments and suggestions from the BCH EAG and the CSG.  Without these Reviews this report could not have been written.

In addition to the main Review Papers, a series of Quick Reviews was undertaken by Wilson and Gambin (2008). These were intended to fill in gaps identified by the author (in combination with the BCH EAG and CSG) after the first round of Review Papers had been completed.

All these papers will be made available on the BCH website.

The general brief for the Review Paper authors was to produce for their chosen topic a short paper which covered:

• The main trends and issues in the area concerned;
• Any possible discontinuities looking forward to 2025 and beyond;
• Uncertainties and any big tensions;
• Conclusions on what the key issues will be in the future, and initial reflections on any general implications for education.

It was emphasised that the reviews were not just about assembling Evidence, based on previous research, but also highlighting key Ideas and Values. In thinking about the future authors were asked to explore: Probable futures; Possible Futures; and Preferable futures. All Review authors were asked to bear in mind issues to do with the implications for the health, Well-being and happiness for children, families and workers.

The Events

The overall project Brief called for at least two events to be organised for each Challenge. These were intended as consultation and idea generation events (workshops or symposia), with attendees from a range of relevant disciplines, in order to explore connections between items of evidence from the reviews and generate new perspectives on the impact they may have on education.

The first event for the Working and Employment Challenge was held on 9th of October in London at TLRP offices. This event involved a number of the Review Paper authors, plus members of the CSG and others. This was a ground clearing and brainstorming event, facilitated by the author. It focused upon:

• Topics to be covered in the initial set of Review Papers;
• Possible gaps in the choice of Review Paper topics;
• Possible authors of Reviews not so far commissioned;
• Other areas of importance, for which there may be only limited research evidence.

As a result some new Review Papers were commissioned and others refocused.

Two subsequent events were held in December and January. These were smaller and focused on reviewing and synthesising the evidence assembled in the Review Papers and developing this Synoptic Report.

The purpose of this Synoptic Report

The main purpose of the Synoptic Report is to provide the Expert Advisory Group with a way of rapidly accessing the knowledge, evidence and ideas identified from the reviews carried out as part of the Working and Employment Challenge. This is intended to support the scenario development process that is a main component of the BCH programme.

It will also be used as the public facing summary of the findings of the Challenge in the final report from the programme.

References

Review papers prepared for the Working and Employment Challenge

Attwell, G and C. Costa (2008) Integrating personal learning and working environments. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge: Pontydysgu

Baldry, C . (2008) How will technological change affect opportunities for creating new economic activities, new sectors and new industries to the year 2025? Stirling Management School, University of Stirling

Bimrose, J. (2008) Careers guidance, identity and development. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Coventry

Bosworth, D.L. (2008) The R&D, knowledge, innovation triangle: education and economic performance. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Coventry

Brown, A. (2008) Developing expertise – moving beyond a focus on workplace competence, assessment and qualifications A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Coventry

Casey, B. (2008) The changing trajectory of working lives -what will be the impact of an ageing workforce and a longer working life? A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick,Coventry

Dex, S. (2008) Review of future of paid and unpaid work, informal work, homeworking, the place of work in the family (women single parents, workless households), benefits, work attitudes motivation and obligation. A Review Paper prepared for the Working & , Employment Challenge

Dixon, M. (2008) Information and communication technology, work and employment. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge.

Felstead, A. (2008) Detaching Work From Place: Charting The Progress Of Change And Its Implications For Learning. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge:  Cardiff.

Gambin, L. and R. Wilson (2008) The Future of Work: What Does Work Mean? 2025 and Beyond. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education: Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick Coventry

Green, A. (2008a). The Importance of Place. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education, Working &, Employment Challenge: Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry

Green, F. (2008) The Growing Importance of Generic Skills. Department of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent, Canterbury.

Hogarth, T and D.L. Bosworth, (2008) Future Horizons for Work-life Balance. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education: A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick Coventry

Keep, E. (2008) Labour Market Structures and Trends, the Future of Work and The Implications for Initial E&T. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education: A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge

Overell, S. (2008) The Meaning of Work paper prepared for the Beyond Current Horizons Project

Powdthavee, N. (2008) Happiness and Well-being. A Review for Beyond Current Horizon Programme University of York.

Round, J. (2008) The boundaries between informal and formal work. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham

Tamkin, P. (2008) In Search of Leadership A paper prepared for BCH. Work Foundation

Unwin, L. (2008) Connecting Workplace Learning and VET to Lifelong Learning. Institute of Education: London.

Wilson, R.A. (2008) The Future of Work: What Does Work Mean 2025 and Beyond? Challenge Outline Paper prepared for DCSF “Beyond Current Horizons” Programme.

Wilson, R. and L. Gambin, (2008) Quick Reviews for the Beyond Current Horizons Work and Employment Challenge, (covering: Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM); Children’s work; Entrepreneurial activity and practices; Innovation and intellectual property rights; Emerging economies and virtual/synthetic worlds; Possible negative effects of technological development) Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry

Other References

Barro R.J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York).

Bauman, Z. (2008) The absence of society. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. The Social Evils Series.

BCH (2007) Previous Global Futures, Technology Futures and Questions for Education: A provocation paper. Beyond Current Horizons programme for DCSF.

Birchall, D., S. Borrett, J. Gill, N. Silburn and P. Thomson (2005) Managing Tomorrow’s Worker: Final Report. Henley Management College.

Bonvin, J-M. and Farvaque, N.  (2006)  ‘Promoting Capability for Work: The Role of Local Actors’  in  Deneulin S., Nebel M. and Sagovsky N. (eds.)  The Capability Approach: Transforming unjust structures Dordrecht: Springer.

Bosworth, D and R. Wilson (2007) Trends in Employment Flexibility: Impact of Proposed Legislation on Managed Service Companies. Version 1.:paper prepared for Blairgowrie.

Bosworth, D.L. (2008).  “An Ageing Population: the Challenges Facing the UK”, Contribution to Skills in England, Learning and Skills Council.

Brown, P. D. Ashton, H. Lauder and G. Tholen, (2008). Towards a High-Skilled, Low-Waged Workforce? A Review of Global Trends in Education, Employment and the Labour Market. Monograph No. 10 October 2008, ESRC funded Centre on Skills, Knowledge and Organisational Performance. Cardiff and Oxford Universities, ISSN 1466-1535

CEC (2008) New skills for New Jobs: Anticipating and matching labour market and skills needs. Commission of the European Community. {SEC(2008) 3058}

CEDEFOP (2007a), Towards European skill needs forecasting. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.

CEDEFOP (2008a), Future skill needs in Europe. Focus on 2020.

CEDEFOP (2008b), Future skill needs in Europe. Medium-term forecast. Synthesis report.

Children’s Society (2009). A Good Childhood: Searching for Values in a Competitive Age (authors: Richard Layard and Judy Dunn). Children’s Society

Christensen, Clayton M. (2003), The innovator’s dilemma: the revolutionary book that will change the way you do business, New York: HarperCollins, ISBN 0-06-052199-6

Cliff, D., C. O’Malley, and J. Taylor (2008) Future Issues in Socio-Technical Change for UK Education. technology review conducted for the BCH Programme

Coffield (F. (2002). Britain’s continuing failure to train: the birth pangs of a new policy.  Journal of Education Policy.  Vol 17; Part 4, pages 483-497.

Dean, H, Bonvin, J.-M., Vielle, P. and Farvaque, N.  (2005)  ‘Developing Capabilities and Rights in Welfare-to-Work Policies’  European Societies 7(1): 3-26.

DCSF (2007) (Department for Children, Schools and Families) The Children’s Plan. Building brighter futures. Cm 7280 HMSO: London, December 2007.

Eberts, Randall W.  (2007)  Trends in Worker Requirements and the Need for Better Information to make more Informed Decisions in a Global Economy. W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Kalamazoo, MI, USA, Paper presented at the Session Entitled “Adult Skills and Working Opportunities” At the OECD’s 2nd World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge, and Policy, on “Measuring and Fostering the Progress of Societies”, Istanbul on 27-30 June, 2007.

EMSI (2006) Documenting and Assessing the Role of Community Colleges in Developing Human Capital (authors: Laanan, Frankie; Hardy, David; Katsinas, Stephen). Community College Journal of Research and Practice, Volume 30, Number 10, December 2006, pp. 855-869(15). Routledge

EMSI (2008) A Look at “Green” Occupations, Part 1. http://www.economicmodeling.com/resources/wp-content/uploads/green-jobs_final.pdf

ESRC Future of work Programme (2004) http://www.leeds.ac.uk/esrcfutureofwork/output/publications.html

Families and Work Institute (2005) study by the Families and Work Institute in New York

Florida, R (2005) The Flight of the Creative Class: The New Global Competition for Talent. HarperBusiness, Harper Collins Publishers

Friedman, T. (2007). The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century.

Future of Work Program (2007) see the Future of Work website http://www.thefutureofwork.net/community_levels.html

Giullari, G and J. Lewis (2005) ‘The Adult Worker Model, Gender Equality and Care’. Social Policy and Development Programme Paper Number 19, United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (April 2005).

Harper, S. (2008) Demography Challenge Paper. Commissioned by the BCH programme: Oxford Institute of Ageing.

HCIUSSC (2009) (House of Commons Innovation, Universities Science and Skills Committee) Re-skilling for recovery: After Leitch, implementing skills and training policies. First report of Session 2008-09, Volume 1 (HC 48-1incorporating 505-i-v, Session 2007-08)

Heeks, R. (2008) Current Analysis and Future Research Agenda on “Gold Farming”: Real-World Production in Developing Countries for the Virtual Economies of Online Games. Development Informatics Group, Paper No. 32, Institute for Development Policy and Management, University of Manchester, Arthur Lewis Building, Manchester, http://www.sed.manchester.ac.uk/idpm/research/publications/wp/di/documents/di_wp32.pdf

Henley Management Research Centres Future Work Forum: http://www.henleymc.ac.uk/henleyres03.nsf/pages/fwf

Jenkins, C. and B. Sherman (1979) The Collapse of Work. Eyre Methuen

Karoly, L. A. and C. W. A. Panis (2004). “The 21^st Century at Work: Forces Shaping the Future Workforce and Workplace in the United States. Study for the US Department of Labor. RAND Corporation, MG- 164-DOL, ISBN: 08330-3492-8.

Krugman, P. (2003) “Lumps of Labor.” The New York Times, 10.7.03

Leitch (2005) Skills in the UK: The long-term challenge, Interim Report, HMSO: ISBN: 1-84532-121-9

Leitch (2006) Prosperity for all in the global economy – world class skills. December 2006. HMSO: ISBN-10: 0-11-840486-5

Liddle, R.. and F. Lerais (2007) A Consultation Paper from the Bureau of European Policy, Advisers,  Europe’s Social Reality.

Migration Advisory Committee (MAC 2008b) The labour market impact of relaxing restrictions on employment in the UK of nationals of Bulgarian and Romanian EU member states,  December 2008,

Migration Advisory Committee (MAC, 2008a) Skilled Shortage Sensible: The recommended shortage occupation lists for the UK and Scotland. Produced by COI on behalf of the Migration Advisory Committee. ISBN: 978-1-84726-823-5  (www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/mac)

Moynagh, M and R. Worsley (2008) Going Global: Key Questions for the Twenty-First Century, A & C Black with Guardian Books.

Pink, D (2005). A Whole New Mind: Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age.

Purcell, K., Elias, P., Davies, R., & Wilton, N. (2005) The Class of ‘99: A study of the early labour market experience of recent graduates, DfES Research Report, Sheffield.

Sen, A.  (1999)  Development as Freedom  New York: Knopf.

Sennett, R, (1976) The Fall of Public Man, Penguin Books

Sennett, R, (2008) The Craftsman, Allen Lane.

Taylor, R. (2004a) Britain’s World of Work – Myths and Realities. An ESRC Future of Work Programme Seminar Series.  Future of Work Commentary Series: Publication Three.

Taylor, R. (2004b). The Future of Work-Life Balance. An ESRC Future of Work Programme Seminar Series. Future of Work Commentary Series: Publication Two.

Thomson, P. (2007) Tomorrow’s Leaders: Final Report. Henley Management College, Future Work Forum.

Tomlinson, M. (2004). 14-19 Curriculum and Qualifications Reform: Final Report of the Working Group on 14-19 Reform October 2004). DfES Publications, Nottinghamshire. DfE-0976-2004

Tomorrow project (2007) see website: http://www.tomorrowproject.net/pub/2__Website/The_Tomorrow_Project/-24.html (see also Moynagh, M and R. Worsley (2008))

UKCES (2009) Reviews of Investment in Education and Training by Individuals and Employers (Collective Measures and related projects, three reports covering: Employer Training: A Conceptual Review From A Public Policy Perspective. by D. L. Bosworth, Warwick Institute for Employment Research; Empirical Review, by T. Hogarth, L. Gambin, D. Bosworth & R.A. Wilson, prepared for UK CES by Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry; and Policy Review for UK CES Collective Measures Project. by A. Cox, F. Sumption and J. Hillage, Institute for Employment Studies; and Collective Measures Study):

Unwin, L. (2008a) Learning at Work: Opportunities and Barriers. State-of-Science Review: SR-A2 contribution to the UK Government’s Foresight Project, Mental Capital and Well-being: making the most of ourselves in the 21^st Century. Government Office for Science Foresight (website www.foresight.gov.uk).

Walker College (2008) What roles should schools play to assist maximum quality of transition from school to work? How should schools best work both with employers and pupils, including the most disadvantaged? presentation by Steve Gater, Headteacher, Walker Technology College, at Skills In England Seminar on Transition from School to Work, January 2008. See also the website http://www.walker.newcastle.sch.uk/

Whitley, J.D and R.A. Wilson (1987). ‘Quantifying the Impact of Information Technology on Employment using a Macroeconomic Model of the UK Economy’.  in Information Technology and Economic Perspectives.  Information Computer Communications Policy 12.  Paris:  OECD, 176-220.

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Wilson, R. A., et al. (2008) Medium-term forecasts of occupational skill needs in Europe: Synthesis Report, paper presented at the CEDEFOP AGORA conference February 22-23. Thessalonoiki.

Wilson, R.A. (2007), Trends in Employment Creation in Europe. paper prepared for the Portuguese Presidency Conference on Employment In Europe – Prospects And Priorities, Lisbon, 8-9 October 2007

Wilson, R.A. (2007b) ‘Trends in Employment Creation in Europe’ in Perspectives on Employment and Social Policy Coordination in the European Union. Ministério do Trabalho e da Solidariedade Social, Lisbon. paper prepared for the Portuguese Presidency Conference on Employment In Europe – Prospects and Priorities, Lisbon, 8-9 October 2007.

Wilson, R.A. et al. (2008) Future skill needs in Europe Medium-term forecast: Synthesis Report, Cedefop / Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, ISBN 978-92-896-0500-7

Wilson, R.A., K. Homenidou and A. Dickerson (2006), Working Futures 2004-2014: National Report, Sector Skills Development Agency: Wath on Dearne. (see also the Sectoral, Regional Qualifications and Technical volumes at:  http://www.ssda.org.uk/ssda/default.aspx?page=28).

Wilson, R.A., K. Homenidou and L. Gambin (2009), Working Futures 2007-2017: UKCES: Wath on Dearne

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Yeats, Ronald, (2008) Article in the Sunday Express, 13/01/08, p55.

Zimmermann, B.  (2006)  ‘Pragmatism and the Capability Approach: Challenges in Social Theory and Empirical Research’  European Journal of Social Theory 9 (4): 467 – 484.

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation

See for example, neo-classical growth such as those outlined in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995), where the accumulation of human and physical capital is subject to diminishing returns (Barro, R.J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York).

Article by Ronald Yeats, Sunday Express, 13/01/08, p55.

See Wilson et al (2009), Cedefop (2007a, b and c) and Wilson et al. (2007) for details.

Skill is typically measured by occupation or qualification.

The UK’s Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) distinguishes a hierarchy of occupational titles and categories, dependent in art on the skill levels required to undertake them.

Formal qualifications are of course only a partial measure of the skills people have acquired, many of which are not formally accredited ad are acquired and developed after the process of initial education. Nevertheless formal qualifications have the huge advantage of ease of measurement.

There have been numerous attempts to define and measure these other aspects of skill, some of which are as much personal characteristics as competences that can be taught and acquired. In the UK the work of Francis Green and colleagues has been seminal (see Green (2008) for an overview).

Although note the caveats on this matter set out in Brown et al. (2008), who argue that the idea that the UK can become a predominately knowledge based economy is wishful thinking by politicians rather than a likely future outcome. Moreover, even those knowledge jobs that are created may offer much less scope for discretion (and hence job satisfaction and fulfilment) than their incumbents might hope.

Francis Green (2008) also discusses some aspects of this in his review.

So called “gold farming”, which involves playing or taking part in computer games on behalf of others to gain some economic reward in the “real” world.

There are some echoes here with problems of ensuring that there are sufficient teachers of good quality to nurture an adequate supply of high quality STEM graduates.

Barrs Hill is an example of a Full Service, Extended School, which aim to provide a more holistic approach to educating. Other agencies based in such schools can help with early interventions (linked to childcare, and working with parents). This was intended to become mainstream policy but seems to have been sidetracked.

I. The Rise of the Schooled Society

A quiet revolution has been afoot over the past 150 years that is under-appreciated and often completely overlooked, yet it profoundly influences our lives, shapes who we are, how we think and work, and what we value most.  Formal education – schooling from kindergarten well into adulthood at colleges and universities and other higher education institutions – transforms modern society in ways that were unimaginable at the beginning of the 20^th century.  The idea of a schooled society is precisely this: a society in which not only all children and youth attend long periods of formal schooling and adult status is mostly determined by academic outcomes, but also one where all institutions are increasingly influenced by the ideas, values, and norms originating out of education as a social institution.

In a very short time, human society all over the world went from providing only limited schooling for the masses while saving advanced education opportunities for small numbers of elite students, to schooling all children and youth.  The standard of how much schooling it takes for one to be considered an educated person has steadily risen with every new generation.  This is obvious from our own families’ educational history where completing secondary education for our grandparents was a major personal accomplishment, while most of our generation assumed that college was a very desirable, if not totally necessary, goal, much like many of our children see post-graduate training as a normal and not a particularly unique education aspiration.

At the most basic level it is very apparent that schooling has steadily pushed its way into lives all over the globe. Just fifty years ago one half of all Americans either had no schooling or had attended only primary school, while in just three short generations we have progressed to the point where almost every American adult has at least graduated from high school and over one half of American adults have gone on to colleges and universities. During the same period whole populations in poorer nations went from having no access to any schooling to widespread primary and secondary education.  Currently 80% of all humans aged 15 or over are able to both read and write a short statement about their life (UNESCO, 2003). This fact would have been hard to imagine just fifty years ago, and most likely it would have been plainly unthinkable one hundred years ago.

The triumph of the ideas behind the educational revolution transformed the world in just 100 years from a place where the vast majority of humans received little or no formal education, to one where it is deemed a worldwide crisis if full education for all is not achieved soon (UNESCO, 2003). And in just the last 20 years the public rhetoric shifted from one of education for all as a positive, if distant, potential to one of education for all as an absolutely essential world goal.

Yet, the education revolution is not only about bringing just basic education to all; many nations, wealthy and less so, are in the midst of an unparalleled growth of higher education for all. Following these trends out over the next fifty years, one can easily imagine a world where most people live and work in what can truly be called a schooled society.

The demographical dimensions of the schooled society are well known and have been documented in great detail. In most high-income nations, such as the UK, US, Japan, France, Germany and so forth, mass education has steadily expanded up the life course over the past 100 years. By the turn of the 21^st century the dimensions of education in the world are immense in terms of its recent growth, its claim to people’s time and effort, and its impact on their lives.  What is most salient about the education revolution is both its relative newness to the human society and the speed by which it grown.  As shown in Figure 1, which plots the total worldwide number of students enrolled in primary, secondary, and tertiary (ie higher education) schooling over the past 200 years worldwide, a short time anthropologically-speaking.  And, once started the rate of growth for each level of schooling rapidly becomes significant and sustained. Note also that over the first few decades of the 20^th century growth in primary enrollment takes off and by 1940 bursts into a logarithmic climb, and as primary schooling reaches large numbers of children 20 years later, enrollment in secondary schooling turns sharply up in the 1960s. New advanced sectors of education are spurred on by the growth of the subsequent sector. Demographically, going to school and attending for a considerable number of years is a new and massive change in behavior of children and youth, and supporting this endeavour is a new role for their families and communities.

Figure 1: Number of Students in Elementary, Secondary, and Higher Education        Worldwide  (Source: Schofer and Meyer 2005)

Since the early 1970s the third wave of the education revolution has unfolded as enrollment in higher education has grown substantially. For example, only about 500,000 students were enrolled in higher education institutions worldwide at the beginning of the 20^th century, representing a tiny fraction of 1% of college-age people, but by 2000, the number of tertiary students had grown to approximately one hundred million people, a number that represents about 20% of the relevant age cohort worldwide, and most of this growth occurred after 1960 (UNESCO 2004). In higher-income nations, it is now common for more than half of all youth to receive some post-secondary schooling, with numbers surpassing 80% in a few countries (UNESCO, 2004).  But, the expansion is not limited to the wealthy, industrialized societies; countries like Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Myanmar each now possess about as many post-secondary students as could be found in the entire world at the start of the century (Schofer and Meyer, 2005).

Providing widespread educational opportunity for nations’ populations is not only widely thought to be desirable, it is now approaching the status of a basic human right like nutrition, health care, and civil rights.  Following the post-WWII trend of greater involvement of multilateral agency involvement in assisting nations’ economic development, representatives from major agencies such as the United Nations, UNICEF, the World Bank, UNESCO in alliance with governments of most nations, and international non-governmental organizations  (INGOs) such as Oxfam and Action Aid gathered together at an international conference in Jomtien Thailand in 1990.  Not only did they once again declare that education is a basic human right, but they set forth a plan of action to make education universal worldwide – the Jomtien Declaration.  This process was updated and intensified in 2000 at a similar international conference on Education for All in Dakar, Senegal.  In each case the attendees of the conferences affirmed the need to have all children have access to quality education within a relatively short time frame for not only the good of nations, but also for the good of the worldwide society. And ambitious and clear steps to meet these goals are widely dispersed throughout the developing world. But the schooled society is far more than just the mechanical expansion of formal education up the life course for ever greater proportions of humans.  As an institution, formal education has come to be one of only a few dominating modern society, and this social development in the course of human society worldwide holds a number of central implications for the future.

How to Think about the Education Revolution?

In light of this sweeping educational revolution, there is an interesting paradox about schooling in modern society.  On the one hand, we attribute many powers to schools: teaching children to read, to understand mathematics and science, to practice and enjoying the arts, to memorize the historical development of a nation, and now even to know about the development of human society across time and place: these are all routinely thought of as what schools do to transform children into functioning adults.  But on the other hand, schooling is frequently portrayed as failing modern society in fundamental ways, leaving the educational revolution under-appreciated, and the wide dimensions of the schooled society have gone mostly unnoticed.  There is much discussion and hand-wringing over the problems with schools; great things are expected from them, but they seem never fully to deliver.  Here is one example of the dire concerns many have about the quality of modern schools; this one was made by the founder of Microsoft, Bill Gates, at the National Education Summit on American Secondary Schools held on February 26, 2005:

America’s high schools are obsolete. By obsolete, I don’t just mean that our high schools are broken, flawed, and under-funded – though a case could be made for every one of those points.   By obsolete, I mean that our high schools – even when they’re working exactly as designed – cannot teach our kids what they need to know today.  Training the workforce of tomorrow with the high schools of today is like trying to teach kids about today’s computers on a 50-year-old mainframe. It’s the wrong tool for the times.  Until we design them to meet the needs of the 21st century, we will keep limiting – even ruining – the lives of millions of Americans every year.

Why this paradox of such high expectations for schooling yet such concerns about its supposed perpetual failure?  First, most people do not recognize the power by which mass schooling transforms society.  Second, many people, even professional educators and scholars of education, become overly fixated on specific parts of what schooling is supposed to do for society at the exclusion of perceiving its formable total impact.  Third, formal education is so ubiquitous in modern life that people rarely appreciate the dynamic way schooling has intensified over recent history and in so doing incorporated itself even deeper into our lives.  Fourth, most people limit their view of schools, colleges, and universities as “helping” institutions that only socialize (some say even oppress) and train our children to join society.

But contrary to these perceptions, in point of fact, schooling from kindergarten through higher education continues to be one of the major success stories of our times; far from a failure, it has transformed who we are, how we think about ourselves, and what we can do.  Interestingly, this fact often goes unappreciated by most in modern society, including professional educators and many social scientists.

But over the past few decades, a group of social scientists-mostly sociologists-have developed a new way to think about the effects of education on modern society that opens up a much wider appreciation of how education transforms everyday lives.  Armed with a new perspective known as neo-institutionalism, these researchers are undertaking exciting new studies outlining the contours of the transforming activity of sending all children to increasingly longer periods of schooling (eg Baker and LeTendra, 2005; Meyer, 1977) The overarching conclusion from these studies presents a vivid picture of how profound the effects of educating all people has been on modern society, and points to the path that the schooled society will likely take in the future.

To appreciate this new perspective, first consider the traditional notion of formal education’s role in society.  On an institutional level formal education is considered to be only a supportive and secondary institution that follows in form and content wherever society takes it.  Probably the most popular image is that of education following (too slowly as Mr. Gates and others would have it) the changing demands of work in particular, and changing societal complexity in general.  Seen this way, schooling is an institution primarily limited to the training of individuals for jobs and the socializing of individuals for a particular society.  The traditional notion is that formal education reproduces society, changing only as society changes at the hands of various external forces.  This image is depicted in the top panel of Figure 2, where schooling only socializes students through teaching curricula and credentials them for adult positions, while the institutional unidirectional influence flows from society to schooling.

Figure 2: Two Models of Education’s Relationship with Society

A neo-institutional analysis turns this traditional notion on its head by arguing that an accounting of the full impact of the education revolution finds that there is much evidence to show that society has come to be more of a reflection of the institution of education rather the other way around. This new image of education and society is one in which formal education is a successful primary institution, so successful in fact, that over the past 50 years it has come to dominate many other institutions such as the family and child rearing, the workplace and ideas of human capabilities, politics and citizenry, and even highly personalized domains like the definitions of success and failure in life (Baker, forthcoming, a).

The lower panel in Figure 2 depicts this perspective with education as a primary institution in the construction of society.  While education continues to educate and credential individuals for roles in society, the institutional influence flows from schooling to society.  Over the course of Western society, in large part because of the rise of the Western university, as education came to play a larger role in creating central ideas and beliefs of modern society, it won significant legitimacy to educate individuals.  In turn, educational achievement became central to individuals’ social status.  This dynamic legitimacy has expanded and intensified over the course of the education revolution to the point where, along with effects on individuals, formal education generates new ideas about people, new privileged human capacities, new ideologies about knowledge and its generation, new social, including occupational, positions, and so forth (Meyer, 1977; Young, 2008).  The educational revolution produces what might be called a “schooled consciousness” promoting a culture of universalistic values, human empowerment, scientific knowledge, and rationality, not only at the individual level, or even at the level of aggregated individuals, but at an institutional level.

This perspective makes the strong case that schooling, as it has been practiced over the past 150 years, is far more than a preparatory exercise for youth, merely following where the technological and social demands of society take it.  Rather, the educational revolution has constructed, for better or worse, most of the dominant ideas, beliefs, and human capabilities that underpin human society as we know it at the beginning of the 21^st century.  This is how best to think about formal education and its possible future impact on society.

It should be cautioned however, that because of the widely Pollyannaish expectations about schooling noted above, discussion about a schooled society is frequently misinterpreted to mean that all things good result from more schooling and its greater role in the definitions of contemporary culture.  On the contrary, there are a number of arguments that start with the assumption that schooling is mostly oppressive (see Young, 2008) for a review and important critique of this line of thinking about schooling). And of course, from schooling used in fascist to apartheid societies over the 20^th century, there are a number of well-known extreme examples of educational oppression.

Interestingly though, most schooling-as-oppressive-always arguments presume a traditional perspective of schooling as described above: to the degree that a society is oppressive so is its schooling as it “prepares” people for the oppressive social order.  In other words, schooling reproduces and even validates existing social inequalities. But the social reproduction argument misses the point that schooling as a social institution constructs society.  Seen this way, schooling, if it were truly as oppressive as some argue, would have to be the root of oppression.  Some have tried to make this case of course (see Bowles and Ginits, 1976, for the US and Willis, 1981 for the UK), but by in large these have failed to account for the actual historical record of schooling and social class in most industrial nations (Baker, 1999).  And as many studies of worldwide, mass schooling and the western style university show, formal education curricula, even in oppressive societies, constructs and spreads an explicit version of human social justice, democratic values, and human universalism that runs counter to most of the extreme forms of social oppression (eg Fiala, 2006).  Hence there are many well-known incidents of suppression of intellectuals and draconian control over schooling to limit its liberating influence in many politically oppressive nations (see for one example from Germany Baker, Kolher and Stock, 2007).

Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that the schooled society powerfully creates social pressure to conform to its logic and punishments for those who do not or cannot conform.  Like all social orders that increasingly come to be dominated by a few key institutions, the schooled society shapes normative restrictions. Anyone who is close to an educationally failed child, or was one himself, knows the pain and frustration of not doing well in school.  In the schooled society, a youth’s image of their future becomes dim when performance in school, for whatever reason, is not successful. And this is far more than just in the technical issue of grades and test-scores: failure in school reflects upon the whole of the individual and remarkably even spills over negatively onto his or her supporting family.  So too as the schooled society intensifies, non-academic types of skills and ideas about human capacities become less privileged and less developed.

The Future of the Schooled Society

There are two scenarios about how the schooled society will proceed that predict diametrically opposed futures.  Mostly along the lines of the traditional image of education and society, the first scenario is by far the most popular one among pundits, casual observers, and often educators alike, but it is far less likely to occur than the second scenario.  Therefore, after a brief description of each, the educational implications of only the more likely second scenario are discussed.

Scenario 1 The Over-education Scenario:

This future scenario predicts that:

The education revolution has now reached its highest point and will wind down over the next three decades into a stasis of relatively little upward expansion of education and a reduction of education’s supremacy over social positioning. Spending upwards of 12-16 plus years in school reaches natural limits of the life course and foregone wages.  Most of the educational expansion of the last forty years is a process of educational inflation, where new degrees are required for the same jobs.  This has resulted in over-educated populations that are economically and socially inefficient and perhaps even dangerous to social cohesion, as individuals who are over-educated will develop unrealistic expectations for jobs and status in adult life that will not materialize.

Also, inflated schooling “dumbs-down” education in order to accommodate the influx of large segments of the population flooding into higher reaches of formal education that are not qualified, not motivated, nor very academically talented.  Other than relatively basic skills of numeracy and literacy, schooling does not add much that is usable, or not otherwise trainable on the job.  Runaway credentialism emerges when an educationally hollow status competition takes over the expansion of formal education.

With just subtle variations, the over-education scenario has been predicted as our imminent educational future virtually ever since the schooled society took off in the 1960s.  Under book titles such as The Diploma Disease, The Great Training Robbery and The Credential Society many predicted that over-education would be a major social problem and educational expansion would evidentially grind to a halt (Dore, 1976, Berg, 1971, 2003; Collins, 1976; also see Bowles and Ginits, 1976.  This was a particularly common forecast in the UK and in nations where a colonial past left a British type of education system (Dore was an influential British observer of education and national development) and in the more aggressively expanding American system (Bowles, Ginits, Berg, and Collins are American scholars) as higher education enrollment rates started to climb – surely the education revolution was going to die at the university’s gate.

The usual policy implications of the over-education scenario is to somehow save education from itself by imposing tighter linkages between formal schooling and jobs, revive vocational education, maintain greater control over testing and admission standards to university, and belief in what was once called “manpower planning” of a centrally guided education and jobs system.

Scenario 2 Continued Educational Expansion and Intensification of the Schooled Society:

This future scenario predicts that:

Early, and persistent, predictions of an approaching over-education future were wrong – in fact, they were spectacularly wrong.  So much so, that growth of the schooled society into the future and its continued construction of much of our culture is very likely.

The evidence that Scenario 2 is more likely to occur in the future than Scenario 1, in that for each predicted part of the over-education scenario much the opposite has occurred.  Briefly, there are five sub-predictions that never materialized, and what did happen in each case is more in line with an expanded and intensified schooled society.  The evidence below is mostly from the US, but it should be noted too that for a number of historical reasons, the political economy of American schooling has tended to herald each new wave of the education revolution and its ensuing spread worldwide, often even changing long standing educational traditions in the UK and other nations of Western Europe (Baker and LeTendre, 2005).

Failed Prediction 1: Natural limitations on the amount of the life course people will spend in formal education will eventually retard educational expansion as the main engine of the schooled society.

People continue to seem quite willing to gain ever-greater amounts of education, even foregoing wages.  Life course limits are pushed aside by the spread of the logic of “life-long education.”  What were once advanced degrees for a very small population are increasingly expanding to meet demand by larger segments of populations propelled by mass education at lower levels. For example, as shown in Figure 3, both enrollment in all graduate programmes and completion of master degrees (ie post the usual 4-year baccalaureate) have increased by substantial amounts since the 1970 in the US.  Furthermore, from just 1970 to 2004 the growth rates among Americans completing a masters and Ph.D. degree is 140% and 50% respectively. And similarly, professional degrees, such as law, medicine, dentistry, have increased by over 100% over the same period. And while this trend is occurring in the U.S., it will most likely rapidly spread through many national systems of higher education.

Figure 3. Growth Trends in University-Graduate Study in the U.S. 1970-2004

Failed Prediction 2: Educational expansion will have to be limited in the future as more people reach advanced degrees and the end of the structure of formal schooling as we know it.

There are recent new patterns of educational expansion occurring in the US as more people seek multiple university degrees. For example, the US Department of Education followed a nationally representative sample of 1992-93 B.A. completers over the following ten years.  Four out of ten enrolled in some graduate study during the decade, and one fourth of those enrolled in multiple graduate degrees of which half were for two or more masters in different disciplines (US Department of Education, 2005). Among B.A. degree-holders from private research universities, where most of the spectacular success of American research universities has been (see below), over one half of B.A. completers enrolled in graduate programmes and over a fourth of these enrolled in more than one degree programme at some time during the ten year span.  Similarly, large numbers of B.A. holders envision themselves as completing a graduate degree or even two sometime in their future; and, the US study reports that at the time of the B.A. completion a full 85% expected to undertake graduate training over the ensuing decade.  Of course this did not happen (yet) for about one-half of these individuals, but the implications are clear-graduate training at university is becoming more normative with each decade, and the growth of graduate degrees and multiple graduate degrees is an outgrowth of this.  And of course there has been a worldwide expansion of adult access to additional formal education and this will likely continue into the future.

Failed Prediction 3: There will not be much job up-grading as more of the labor force enters with more education, thus leading to an educationally hollow and unsustainable credentialism.

There is an emerging research literature indicating that the schooled society has had a profound impact on many dimensions of the workplace and job content technology, including how it is incorporated into work. Largely on the pages of the Quarterly Journal of Economics over the past decade and one half, economists of labor and national development have developed an insightful set of empirical findings about the relationship among education of workers, technology, and the organization of the work inside firms.  Over and over these studies report that education influences the world of work more than the other way around.  What once was the standard assumption that as each generation attains more formal education there is little true job upgrading has been buried by these recent studies.

Failed Prediction 4: Over-education leads to future social unrest and great dissatisfaction with schooling in general.

There is no evidence that this most dramatic of predictions of the over-education scenario ever happened in any part of the world as mass schooling and higher education rolls on.  And there is some systematic analysis that verifies this. A representative example is the comprehensive study by Val Burris who finds in a 1983 analysis of a large nationally-representative sample of working Americans no substantial differences between people who are over-educated for their jobs and those who are not across their stated job satisfaction, political radicalism, political alienation, unionism, and allegiance to an achievement ideology.

Failed Prediction 5: Educational Expansion “dumbs-down” education, making it less relevant to changing human capacities in the future.

This is a common prediction that is hard to test, but there is emerging evidence to suggest if anything, mass education has made schooling far more demanding on a cognitive level than was the case at the beginning of the last century. For details see Consequence II below.

II. Two Consequences of the Schooled Society for the Future of Knowledge, Creativity and Communication

If scenario 2 is the more likely to occur in the future, what are some of the main educational consequences and policy implications?  Two are described here, one for higher education, and the other for all levels of education starting from the very beginning of schooling.

A.  The Future of Knowledge Production: The Super Research University’s Knowledge Conglomerate

The advent of the super research university (hereafter, super RU) and its knowledge production conglomerate, primarily in the US, over the past several decades is a stunning development of the schooled society with major implication for the future of society (Mohrman, Ma and Baker, 2007).  An intensification of a number of unique qualities of the Western university has resulted in a small, but growing, number of institutions with the capacity to produce unprecedented levels of science, technology, and knowledge about human society.  Sometimes identified as “world-class research universities,” these institutions are, for better or worse, leading the establishment of an emerging model of the university that is rapidly becoming the accepted standard by which institutions will undertake graduate training and research. For better or worse, the ideas driving the super RU are rapidly forming into a pervasive normative model for the university throughout higher education worldwide with major implications for knowledge, science and technology production into the future.

So too, the rising super RU model, emulated by so many universities supported by the schooled society, has set the foundation for the much discussed knowledge society, and its variations such as Richard Florida’s creative class and Robert Reich’s symbolic analysts.  In a dynamic interplay between knowledge production and the expansion of knowledge domains, the university has played a key role.  It is the main arbitrator of knowledge, not just in the form of science and technology, but also in terms of business, social science, and traditional humanities (Frank and Gabler, 2006).  The knowledge conglomerate has also worked to expand the range of occupations assumed to require a university degree. This is counter to the much touted claim in the early1990s that universities’ knowledge production system, Mode 1 science as it was known (eg Gibbons et al, 1994), would become outdated and give way to a mostly a non-university based new system, called Mode 2 knowledge production.  But the original prediction about the decline of knowledge production at universities did not happen; while non-universities organizations got into the knowledge production process, the super RU has actually increased the university’s share of an expanding knowledge production conglomerate (Geiger, 2004).

For example, here is how some leading neo-institutional analysts of the university and its role in the schooled society describe this institution power of the university:

The university – while inefficient at preparing people for specialized roles, in comparison to direct role-training arrangements – is extremely well positioned to support precisely such generalized notions.  Students learn – and society itself learns – that all the specialized and professionalized roles of contemporary society are fundamentally based on universal scientific knowledge and rationality, and that with schooling, ordinary persons can be transformed to possess the relevant competencies (Meyer et al, 2007, p203)

Briefly listed, the growing literature on these super RUs identifies a set of defining characteristics that most observers agree upon (eg Geiger, 1993; Mohrman, Ma and Baker, 2007; Baker, forthcoming, b) including: Research Intensive; Transcending global mission; New Knowledge for the Good Society; Decline of the Traditional and the Rise of the new Professoriate; Recruitment of Academic Core in National and International Markets; Greater Internal Complexity; Denser Networks of Universities and Steeper Competition Worldwide; Extreme Costs and Mixture of Funding.

By and large, the rise of the super RU stems from the American higher education experience with mass education and a norm of universal access. The muscular approach to knowledge generation stems from a broad consensus in the US (and everywhere else too) around the idea that university research is crucial to economic global competitiveness (Geiger and Sa, 2008).  Over the past several decades, three major transforming trends in higher education are unfolding that are widely discussed, yet only rarely in relationship to one another.  In fact, for many higher education observers, these three trends represent opposites within formal education, that on the surface seem to create more conflict than harmony within the university. One trend, often divisively debated, is the rapid growth of the private sector of higher education across most nations.  The second trend, often considered pedestrian, is the unprecedented expansion and massification of higher education in not only wealthy nations such as the United States and those in Western Europe, but in almost all nations as well.  The final trend, often celebrated, is the rise and flourishing of super RUs; mostly in the US, but increasingly now as a model aspired to by many research universities throughout the world.  What is not often appreciated about these three trends is that at their root they are related, even symbiotic, to the point that each likely would not be happening if it were not for the other.

An appreciation of the underlying relationship among these three seemingly separate major transforming forces in higher education develops a fuller picture of the institutional dynamism behind the growing legitimation of the university and its role in shaping the schooled society now and into the future.  Frequently these three trends are assumed to be in some kind of zero-sum competition with each other, but this underestimates the institutional power of the educational revolution and the role of the university in its development.  Also such an underestimate can lead to a policy environment in which universities and ministries of education around the world actually inhibit the development of mass higher education, private institutions, and efforts to reach for the full capacity of research universities to generate new knowledge and train the next generation of scientists and scholars.

These three trends are bound together in the case of American experience with higher education.  This has always been so, but recently the dynamism among these trends has intensified to an unprecedented level with clear implications for the future.  Often this intensification of private funds within American RUs is seen as a decline in the strength of universities as an institution, but in fact the very opposite case – that private funds reflect the growing overall strength of the university – can be made.

Focusing on the American case to predict the future of knowledge production in universities worldwide is not meant to imply that all nations must follow this pattern, nor is it intended to be a statement about political or cultural hegemony.   Rather, it is justified by the fact that, for better or worse, the US has been the world leader in the institutional changes represented by mass education and the coming of the schooled society.  This is also not to say that how the American school system is operationalized in practice is necessarily the world leader (on a number of criteria, it is not), rather what comparative research on education change clearly shows is that over the past few decades there is increasing worldwide isomorphism among national school and higher education systems, and many of the ideas, goals, values and beliefs behind this process originally stem from the American experience with formal education, particularly since the 1960s (eg Baker and LeTendre, 2005).

How then to think about these three phenomena together?

Geiger traces the dimensions of science and technology development in US universities over the past half century and his cogent analysis of basic research production shows precisely the enhancing of the societal mission of the university (Geiger, 1993, 2004).  Historically the rise of the “knowledge production conglomerate” in American research universities consists of a robust funding situation plus existing trends in the organization of university research and scholarship aimed at interdisciplinarity, the proliferation of research institutes, and ‘raising the bar’ in faculty hiring that are at the heart of the super RU model.  This aggressive approach to knowledge generation that ensues from this feeds into the idea that university-based, or university-influenced, research is crucial to economic global competitiveness.  It is a short jump from this image of the role of the university to society-wide consensus that the university is a leading institution for the good of society.  This very image of the American university, as it transforms itself into a super RU, is widely evident in the American culture.

This is often missed as many observers of RUs assume that privatization and public funds are in a zero-sum relationship.  And indeed a superficial reading of trends can lead one to this conclusion.  It is true that the American federal government’s share in funding research (once the source of most university-based research) declined dramatically over the last twenty years from almost one half to just over a fourth of the nation’s total expenditures on R&D.  And what gained proportionally during the same time were privatized sources, which now fund 70% of all American R&D.  Furthermore, the funding for basic research, which is predominately carried out in universities, grew only from about 14 to 18%.

What goes unappreciated though is that both public and private funds have flowed into American universities as a consequence of this broad societal consensus around mass higher education, and therefore university-based research has increased proportionally (Geiger, 2004). Overall growth of all American R&D from 1980 to 2000 kept pace with the rapid growth of science and technology that the world has seen since the 17^th century.  Combined university-based and non-university-based R&D (basic research and expensive technology development) spending from 1980 to 2000 more than doubled in constant dollars from about $115 to $248 billion.  And importantly, within this rapidly expanding R&D climate, the university has held its share at about one-half of all basic research.  While federal (ie public) support to American universities has declined, it has been replaced from private economic sources, so that overall academic funding as a share of GDP grew by 50% in just twenty years, to an amazing $28.2 billion in 2000.

Also, the rise of the model of the super RU (private and public) and expanding access to higher education are both large-scale trends that reflect underlying models of education and its role in society that in turn are transforming higher education.  To see this argument, it is useful to consider the context from which the super RU model originated.  As pointed out, the US has the highest number of universities with the characteristics described above.  These are universities that produce considerable amounts of new knowledge across many fields (eg out of the top 10 universities worldwide with the highest citation rates per faculty size rates, 8 are US institutions, and of those 5 are private).  And many other American universities are above the world average in citations.  Similarly, out of those universities worldwide that can generate the enormous level of research funding, by far most are American, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1:  Top Ten Universities in Citations/Faculty Size

Source: The Times Higher Education Supplement, October 6, 2006

But the usual take on the American case – private money, low central control, and high tolerance for between-institution inequality (in part a function of inequalities produced by mixing private and public funding sources) – is not the root cause of why so much of the super RU model stems from the American experience.  In other words, the super RU is not just the product of the historically unique private section of American higher education.  It is not just that the super RU model is an expensive one to pursue, requiring a wealthy society.  Nor that private money is now a substantial source of funding in the U.S.  Nor even that many super RUs are privately controlled.  While these factors certainly have enhanced the development of the super RU model, they are not at its root cause.  Instead, the cause is found in the way in which American society has generated widespread societal support for higher education, institutionally led by the research university, which includes private universities and private support for significant parts of public universities. In other words, formal education in the US has been an early leader in the movement towards universal access to higher education and all that such an idea includes (Trow, 2005).  Instead of assuming that mass access to higher education, the super RU model, and the role of private funds are mutually exclusive, zero-sum forces, what the American case illustrates is that in reality these three trends have significantly supported one another in the past and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future.

It is true that this fundamental symbiotic relationship is not the product of some central plan, instead it grew out of a unique set of historical conditions.  The effects of which have become more obvious as the model for the American super RU becomes attractive to many other nations leading higher education there to mimic certain aspects – including faculty working conditions, competitive-based governmental support for research, a large private sector basis – as well as the idea of substantial private funds within the system.  But what is frequently overlooked in these efforts is the exceptional societal support the US has been able to generate for education in general and higher education in specific-both public and private.

American society has achieved this for essentially two reasons: first, through a widely comprehensive system of public (and to a lesser degree private) secondary education graduating youth with the aspirations and expectations for more education, and second through a relatively open and comprehensive higher education system made up of both public and private universities and many small private colleges.  This has lead to the belief in American society that the university, and particularly the super research university, is not an elitist or esoteric enterprise; instead, it is perceived to a remarkable degree as a democratic and useful institution.  The fact that so many Americans attend some institution of higher education and have deep connections to these institutions in all of their many types, translates into wide societal support (ie public and private monies) for the costs of super research universities, even if only a small proportion of Americans will attend, or has attended, one of these highly selective institutions.  As with the expansion of mass and comprehensive (ie non-stratified) elementary and secondary education, the US has over the last century led the way in mass higher education with the idea that more and more types of people can develop as individuals (and not just as workers) through extended formal education (about 60 to 70% of American youth with a secondary school degree enroll in some type of higher education).  At the same time, what the research university is thought to do for American society further legitimates the expansion of education for all. Also, private universities and private aspects of public universities have played a direct role in mass education.

The tremendous level of private support for higher education in the US is not only a reflection of rising tuition, it is also a reflection of the way that higher education in general, and universities in particular, are thought about in the US. The lack of a state controlled exclusive set of universities and other institutions of higher education in the US has led to robust and broad private support of individual institutions, and also of the entire sector to a degree.  Certainly rising tuitions and private shares of funding is a trend to be concerned about and in some ways is a product of falling public funds for higher education.  But the idea of societal support is broader than just the shifting split between public and private funds.  In the US overall, the pie continues to grow for higher education.

The 19^th century American land-grant model of the research university laid the groundwork for the future of American higher education, and in many ways perhaps also the future of higher education globally. Here are all of the forerunners to the new ideas that now drive the super research university in terms of the symbiotic relationship between university and society, and joining together several strands of ideas into one institution for the first time.  Scientific knowledge, rational social progress, human empowerment, and universalistic values become embedded within the authority of the university, and this authority, based on an intensification of these ideas in the postmodern world, drives the current support of the super RU model in the U.S. (see also Meyer et al, 2007).  Also, every land-grant university, even though they are public, incorporates significant private funds, from tuition to research collaborations with private ventures, to huge alumni giving of private gifts (money), to lucrative deals trading universities’ logo for revenue from private sports apparel firms.  This is not to pass moral judgment on the American super RU and its privatization; there are clearly positive and negative implications of the model, and thoughtful critics on both sides.  Rather, the point of the American case is that one way to think about the growing private higher education sector worldwide is that it is partially driven by the rise of societal support for the super RU from mass education and now mass higher education.  And that in turn, once private support for higher education begins to flow and becomes normative, it feeds into the overall growing institutional power of higher education.

The main policy implication for the future of the UK system is not necessarily to copy the details of the American system – in fact, attempts to do so in other nations have not worked very well.  Instead the message to take away from here is to focus on factors that increase overall societal support for the knowledge production function of universities.  And given the logic of the schooled society, the best way to do so is educationally, not through public relations campaigns and other trivial methods.  In other words, opening up access to higher education and lowering early barriers to secondary education leading to higher education generates societal support.  If universities remain mostly elitist, this will limit their ability to generate the considerable financial resources needed to compete as super RUs, or world-class knowledge producers in the future.  The old model that elite institutions will train the elite knowledge producers and this can be sustained by special public funding is rapidly breaking down.

B. The Future of Knowledge Acquisition: The Rise of Academic Intelligence and the Cognitive Revolution

Formal education is the only institution in modern society that on a consistent basis has the legitimate power to organize all accepted types of knowledge into acceptable format and determine valid truth claims, and specify who and when people have access to learn these new fields (Young 2008). And if this power were not enough, for the first time in human history formal education defines and almost single-handedly focuses society on one particular capability that all normally developing humans must have.

Mass schooling has produced and widely distributed a uniquely new definition of intelligence, and in a relatively short time made it universally accepted as not only useful, but essential to being a fully developed individual ready to participate in modern society.  As never before, schooling through its everyday activities has created a new model completely based on cognitive skills about what is important for effective human development and performance. What might be best described as “academic intelligence” is perhaps, among all of the significant impact of the schooled society, the cardinal institutional product of mass education. Academic intelligence can be defined as: those cognitive skills needed to do abstract reasoning, problem-solving, higher order thinking, multiple perspective taking, and effortful thinking.

All forms of formal education increasingly narrow human capabilities towards cognitive performance.  With the development and flourishing of academic intelligence, such skills as mental problem-solving, effortful reasoning, abstraction and higher-order thinking, and the active use of intelligence take center stage while pushing off more traditional academic skills such as recitation, disputation, memorization, formalistic debate, formulae application, accuracy, and authoritative text reading and exegesis.  Cognitivism has become the overarching epistemological theme of modern education, and as the schooled society deepens there is evidence that cognitivism continues to intensify in its importance.

Exactly when academic intelligence emerged as the main objective of mass schooling is hard to pinpoint, but there is good evidence that it has intensified over the last half century, and in so doing it pushed aside other older objectives of formal education.  Academic intelligence retains some vestiges of both old classical education and the spirit of vocational training, but it emerges out of a type of dialectic process between these former goals of education, and as such is a synthesis that is quite different from a simple compromise or watering-down of the two.  Academic intelligence is what children throughout the world must learn to be a “fully-developed human.” Note the change in terminology of the objective of schooling from the older phrase “well-educated” with its implications of mastery of content versus the ontological implications of the contemporary phrase “fully-developed.”  In so doing on a mass basis, the educational revolution has made much of the traditional epistemological foundation of schooling – classical intellectualism and vocationalism – obsolete.

A good example of the trend towards academic intelligence in not only what is presented in schooling, but also what becomes defined as the way to generate new knowledge in society is the one hundred year evolution of mathematics curricula.  A recent study (Baker et al, forthcoming, c), undertook a cognitive assessment of primary school mathematics textbooks (as a proxy of the curricula in the localized US system) over the 20^th century.  Two of the major trends found illustrate the point here.  First, contrary to the notion that mass education “dumbs down” curricula, the mathematics in textbooks has, particularly since the 1960s, included more advanced material at earlier grades.  And two, most germane to the argument here, the textbook material from the 1960s onward increased all types of problems that require the kinds of skills that make up academic intelligence.  As the cognitive demand of the curricula increases, all students are required to try to think mathematically and reason about the subject in ways that students early in the century were never asked to.  The model of young student learning mathematics in the 1940s and 1950s was that of the careful, accurate and tireless calculator, and by the late 1960s on the model was as a “little” mathematician.

A second illustration of the consequence of increased focus on academic intelligence in the schooled society is the case of increasing IQ across generations of adults. Populations of humans living in what are now the wealthier of nations have gotten considerably “smarter” over the course of the 20^th century and continue to do so (Flynn, 1987).  This once little-known phenomenon, called the Flynn Effect, is appreciated by aficionados of the study of intelligence, although pop-sociology has recently spread this fact to a wider audience.  When psychometricians compare performance on tests of IQ (intelligence quotient) over the last century they find that the average person in a generation scores higher than the average person in the preceding generation.  In fact, the whole distribution of scores has shifted upwards over the past 80 years with each succeeding generation.

As shown on the Figure 4, when raw scores are compared over history a growing average IQ trend is evident to an amazing degree; compared to the average person in 1900, the average person now scores two full standard deviations above this at 130.  Successive generations have been gaining about 15 IQ points over the preceding generation; while 15 IQ points may not seem like a lot, it represents going from mere average intelligence to superior intelligence, and of course people with superior intelligence (120 plus) in the preceding generation are matched by people in the succeeding generation with exceptional scores (135 plus).

Figure 4. Rise in IQ, Wechsler Tests and Stanford-Binet,  1932-1992

There are two other qualities of the trend of growing IQ, both of which may be a function of the educational revolution.  First, all the evidence uncovered so far indicates that the Flynn Effect has occurred only in nations that have been economically developed and had early and sustained mass education for some time, such as Japan, Western European countries, and the US and Canada (Flynn, 1987).  And second, the part of IQ that has had the most dramatic historical increases is what is informally called “fluid IQ.”

When psychometricians think about intelligence, they often clump IQ abilities into two large sets of capabilities.  One set, known as fluid IQ, is made up of our ability to solve novel problems through planning approaches to complex tasks (executive functioning), keep important facts in mind as we solve problems (working memory), process information in an effective way (inhibitory control), shift our mind’s attention to parts of problems in an effective manner (attention shifting), and understand spatial relationships.  For example, if you were shown a set of complex abstract figures that you had never seen before and told that they are part of a pattern varying in shadings, geometric shapes, and size, like Figure 5, and you were asked to describe what the next abstract figure in the pattern would be, solving this problem would engage your fluid intelligence skills.  In fact, these kinds of pattern recognition problems are used to measure people’s performance on tests of fluid IQ, the most commonly used being the Ravens Progressive Matrices Test.  A real life application of fluid IQ would be the cognitive skills you would use if you planned an approach to solving a new and complex set of problems at the workplace.  Many of the skills of academic intelligence regularly use fluid IQ capabilities.

Figure 5. Problems illustrating the Raven’s Progressive Matrices Test

The other set of cognitive functions, known as crystallized IQ, is made up of our abilities to remember and understand facts and routine solutions to problems that we have accrued over our lives. If you were asked, for example, to name the first four Prime Ministers of the 20^th century, or how to calculate a sphere’s circumference, solving these problems would use your crystallized skills (including realizing that you once knew the answers to these but now can’t recall, although you do know where you can refresh your memory). While Flynn and others find some evidence of persistent, moderate rise in crystallized IQ across generations, it has been people’s fluid IQ skills that have climbed through the roof over the past 100 years.

But what should we make of this?  Is it really true that there are now many geniuses among us, or that in our grandparents’ day most people didn’t have the intelligence required to understand the rules of American baseball or British cricket?  Obviously not. And at the same time, 80 some years is a short time in the whole of human phylogenetic development (ie as a species) over roughly 200,000 years, much too short for any kind of massive genetic selection resulting in superior human intelligence throughout the population.  Instead all indications point to some impact of the immediate environment over the past century that has motivated and trained people’s capacity for fluid, and to a lesser extent, crystallized cognitive skills.

Results of a recent set of studies indicate that mass schooling is a major cause of this growing IQ among successive generations.  These studies were based on methods and ideas from an unusual combination of social and neuro-sciences that brought the neo-institutional analysis of schooling with exciting new findings and ideas about how the human brain develops and is transformed through everyday experiences in school (eg Eslinger et al, 2008).

The idea that formal education, spreading to ever wider proportions of the populations for increasingly longer times and with ever greater demands on people’s attention, is a likely cause of rising IQ is a dramatic demonstration of the constructivist nature of schooling.  Academic intelligence has become the central highly valued human skill of the schooled society, a skill that just century ago would have been considered overly narrow and of dubious benefit to the functioning person. Over time, formal education has made this type of cognitive performance a much valued and necessary skill that all students are expected to master. Not the learning of facts, nor the rote application of methods to problems, modern mass schooling from Kindergarten to increasingly at the highest reaches of college and university has promoted the cognitive skills of academic intelligence as the primary learning goal of an education.

C. Implications for the Future: BCH Questions

The assumption behind the thoughts on each of these issues is that the second scenario above, the continued intensification of the schooled society, is the one likely to happen, and so it is the only one considered here.

1. Educational goals: In these different scenarios how will the ‘goals’ of education change? What demands for qualification, socialisation and subjectification will there be as a result of these trends and in these different futures? What implications would there be for assessment practices?

The far more likely scenario of the continued intensification of the schooled society will not significantly shift educational goals from what they are now, but predicted here is an intensification and continued narrowing of goals.  The goals of academic education for all students, the rise of education as human capital through human development will continue to grow and replace older notions of vocationalism and classicism, as well as the imagery of man-power planning (Baker and Lenahrdt, 2008).  Because of the early development of British education over the 19^th century, ideas of elite and vocational education are embedded and could prove resistant to change.  So, too, academic intelligence will continue to shape both the curricular objective as well as institutions such as the workplace and the labor market.

Also it is unlikely that the model of knowledge production through the super RU will decline in the foreseeable future; Mode 1 continues to be quite healthy.  The super RU, and its components, appears not to be a fad.  The model of the super RU has spread across many nations as at least an aspiration, if not a full-blown plan.  If British educators and higher education officials incorporate this model in future plans for higher education, this will greatly enhance the nation’s educational and knowledge production competitiveness into the future.

2. Educational ‘personnel’: Who will be teaching/learning/mentoring/caring in the light of these trends and in these different futures?  How will risk to each of these different groups be exacerbated or reduced in different futures?

Teachers will be asked to be ever more academic in their approach, yet to a much wider variety of students from all kinds of backgrounds and with all kinds of strengths and weaknesses.  This paradox creates much of the stress in teaching.  If it is made explicit to all involved some of the stress can be overcome.  Obviously as the demands of academic intelligence and schooling in general rise and more of the populations of children and youth are asked to succeed at these for longer periods of their lives, more are at risk of needing more intensive remedial education.  The increase and penetration in to all facets of schooling of the American special education for academic at-risk students is a consequence of this.

The universities too will experience the same.  As described in section II A above, the support for the massive resources needed for state-of-the-art knowledge production will increasingly depend on wider societal support of higher education in general.  This means that teaching in the university will need to change in the direction of student-centered, with abundant remedial opportunities.

3. Educational institutions: Given these trends and potential scenarios, how might education be organised and governed? What accountability measures could be considered? What organisational and institutional structures become possible?

In many ways this is obvious from the description of the schooled society above.  One clear institutional implication of the knowledge production conglomerate and the super RU is that widespread Mode 2 knowledge production has not happened, or at least it has not reduced the role of the university as was originally predicted.  The need for wide societal support of knowledge production melds together more access to the university and science and scholarship.   The logic of the old organizational arrangement of breaking off research into non-university organizations that was so popular in Western Europe is not likely to be the best way to do this; in fact these arrangements as supported by elite scientists and scholars of these institutions, are likely to retard societal support in that they detract from the symbiotic process of mass education as the platform upon which a knowledge society is sustained.

So, too, accountability, at both the schooling level and in higher education (within the next few years there will be a PISA-type comparison of higher education students cross-nationally), will need to focus more on the ability of schools and universities to provide academic type training to all children and youth.  In other words, the standard of successful education narrow and intensify around academics too.  Different objectives for different people will continue to die out as a value, and will be replaced with the notion of the use of academically-based education as the only way to assist in the general human development of all the nation’s children and youth.

4. Educational methods: Given these trends, how might learning best be supported? How might teaching best be enabled? How might we best assess the outcomes of these methods?  What evidence do we have now that could be mobilised to respond to these trends?

Most germane here is the implication of rising and intensifying academic intelligence as the main object of schooling from the earliest years on. This trend will in the future put even greater pressure on educators to devise methods to assist all learners to master these cognitive skills.  The intensive narrowing focus on these skills will make a major social problem out of those who cannot master these skills.  This will be a formable challenge for formal education into the future.

5. Educational tools: In these different scenarios, what artefacts (material, conceptual, knowledge-based, technical) will we be able to employ in support of education and assessment? What interventions and practices that we see in education now could give us insight into how we might use these artefacts in future?

It is a reasonable prediction to make that the continued cognitive-ization of educational materials will occur well into the future.  The same is true of new knowledge in general.  Educators, teachers and professors alike, will need to be trained in these ideas.  Right now in the US, for example, most teachers and professor (other than psychology professors) have a rather crude introduction to the ideas and findings of the cognitive revolution in the study of the human brain and mind and its capabilities.  This is a limitation that needs to be addressed.

6. Educational outcomes: In these different scenarios who will benefit? Who will be at risk? What interventions could be designed to enable equity of outcome?

Thoughts on this are covered in sections 2 and 4 above.

7. Beliefs about education: In these different scenarios, what views might the wider public have about the goals and aspirations of education? What different approaches to education might they more readily accept or reject? This area has been added after discussion with the EAG, and will be considered not only through the Challenges but also through the Public and Stakeholder engagement programme.

Thoughts on this have been covered in I and II A above.

References

Baker, D. (forthcoming a) The Schooled Society: How The Quiet Educational Revolution Transforms Society.

Baker, D. (forthcoming b) Privatization, Mass Higher Education, and the Super Research University: Symbiotic or Zero-sum Trends? Die Hochschule (German Journal on Higher Education).

Baker, D., Knipe, H., Cummings, E., Collins, J., Gamson, D., Blair, C., and Leon, J. (forthcoming c) One Hundred Years of American Primary School Mathematics: A Content Analysis and Cognitive Assessment of Textbooks from 1900 to 2000.

Baker, D. (1999) Schooling All the Masses: Reconsidering the Origins of American Schooling in the Postbellum Era. Sociology of Education, 72 (4), pp.197-215.

Baker, D. and LeTendre, G., (2005) National Differences, Global Similarities: World Culture and the Future of Schooling. Stanford, CA., Stanford University Press.

Baker, D., Stock, M. and Koehler, H. (2007) Socialist ideology and the contraction of higher education: Institutional consequences of state manpower and education planning in the former East Germany, 1949 to 1989. Comparative Education Review, 51 (3), pp.353-377.

Bowles, S. and Gintis, H. (1976) Schooling in Capitalist America. New York, Basic Books.

Berg, I. (1971, 2003) Education and Jobs: The Great Training Robbery. New York, Praeger Press.

Burris, V. (1983) The Social and Political Consequences of Overeducation. American Sociological Review, 48 (4), pp.454-467.

Collins, R. (1979) The Credential Society. New York, Academic Press.

Dore, R. (1976) The Diploma Disease: Education, Qualification, and Development. London, Institute of Education.

Eslinger, P., Blair, C., Wang, J., Lipovsky, B., Realmuto, J., Baker, D., Thorne, S., Gamson, D., Zimmerman, E., Rohrer, L. and Yang, Q. (2008) Developmental Shifts in fMRI Activations During Visuospatial Relational Reasoning. Brain and Cognition.

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Flynn, J.R. (1987) Massive IQ gains in 14 nations: What IQ tests really measure. Psychological Bulletin, 101, pp.171-191.

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Gibbons, M., Limoges, C., Nowotny, H., Schwartzman, S., Scott, P. and Trow, M. (1994) The New Production of Knowledge: The Dynamics of Science and Research in Contemporary Societies. London, Sage Publication.

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Meyer, J., Ramirez, F., Frank, D. and Schofer, E. (2007) Higher Education as an Institution. In: Gumport, P. (ed) Sociology of Higher Education: Contributions and their Contexts. Baltimore, MD., Johns Hopkins University Press.

Mohrman, K., Ma, W. and Baker, D. (2007) The Emerging Global Model of the Research University. In: Altbach, P. and Peterson, P. (eds.) Higher Education in the New Century: Global Challenges and Innovative Ideas. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Sense Publishers, and co-published by UNESCO Paris France.

Schofer, E. and Meyer, J. (2006) The World-Wide Expansion of Higher Education in the Twentieth Century. American Sociological Review, 70 (6), pp.898-920.

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U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (2005) Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study 1993/2003. Washington DC, U.S. Government Printing Office.

Young, M. (2008) Bringing Knowledge Back in: From Social Constructivism to social realism in the Sociology of Education. London, Routledge.

Willis, P. (1981) Learning to Labor: How Working Class Kids Get Working Class Jobs. Contributors, New York, Columbia University Press.

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

Most people who are still illiterate are living in very poor nations and seven out of ten are women (UNESCO, 2003).

This report considers the relationships between the state, the private sector and the third sector in the provision of education. It looks at the some of the factors that influence these elements and the relationships between them – in particular, digital technologies – and explores some of the ways changes in these factors might influence the way education delivery is structured over the coming decades to 2025 and beyond. In doing so, it draws largely on a set of reviews written for the Beyond Current Horizons programme, expert interviews and discussions from a workshop event. A summary of these reviews and activities can be found in the appendices.

The primary questions within this report centre on the actors whose actions constitute the educational landscape: who determines educational content, who is managing educational institutions, who is providing educational experiences, who is developing educational resources, what the funding mechanisms are that pay for this, and who is responsible for ensuring access to education. These address educational provision in its broadest sense, touching on independent, supplementary and alternative education, work-based learning, and paying particular attention to emerging forms of educational provision that have been enabled through new forms of technology.

It was noted by a number of review authors and interviewees that the lack of data that would support a comprehensive investigation into the relationships between state and non-state actors in the education arena was surprising, given the centrality of these questions to debates on education and its future direction. In part, this appeared to be due to the commercially sensitive nature of data on factors within the education market (though it should be noted that interviewees working for educational suppliers were extremely generous in sharing the information available to them). This sensitivity is recognised here in leaving interviewees’ views and comments unattributed. To some degree, however, this absence appears to reflect a genuine lack of investigation, rather than a lack of transparency. There are a number of possible factors that might contribute to this state of affairs. Within some research communities there are dominant narratives of state responsibility and corporate activity that are easily left untroubled. There are other actors within the public sector who may not feel that it is in their remit or their interest to trouble these narratives, or to reveal complex relationships within the market that may be misunderstood as a result. Information that would be necessary for a full understanding of the area may be held within organisations and sectors which lack a tradition of engagement with academic research or cultures of openness. Any thorough academic investigation would require a genuinely interdisciplinary effort, as relevant topics are addressed by a range of disciplines that may not have a history of collaboration. These factors are presented speculatively and are of course not exhaustive.

This report offers:

• An overview of the contemporary educational landscape in England, examining responsibility for access, curriculum authorship, production of educational materials, management of educational institutions, assessment and funding.
• An exploration of those features of the landscape considered likely to persist over the relevant timescale.
• An outline of some emerging trends within the provision of education whose direction of travel seems relatively clear.
• A set of related uncertainties, examining the different ways in which these emerging trends might plausibly develop.

• A short selection of implications arising from the trends and uncertainties discussed in this report, and some possible actions that might be considered as responses to the challenges they offer.

Some of the emerging trends identified here arose from discussions during the workshop event and have been drawn from a summary report written by Helen Beetham, to whom thanks and acknowledgement are due.

The various trends and uncertainties described here should be understood as factors that the work of the review authors suggests are worth continuing to pay attention to over the coming decades, rather than a comprehensive or exhaustive account of all factors that act within education or that will shape its future. As with any attempt to discuss future events and developments that have yet to occur, these trends and uncertainties are not certain to play out in the directions suggested here, nor is it impossible that other developments not addressed within this report will play a greater role in the future of education than currently seems likely. There are no predictions here, only likelihoods or possibilities.

It is worth briefly marking a couple of points regarding language. First, the distinction between learning and education, where learning can be considered a personal process of change and development, and education can be seen as an intentional social project executed with specific goals. As a social project, the practices of education are subject to the forces that shape all of society and will change as they change; learning processes, in contrast, change over a much longer timescale. While these two terms are often used interchangeably today, when considering the longer term future it is more likely that we will see changes in the ways we educate rather than in the ways we learn.

Second, throughout this discussion the terms “delivery” and “provision” are employed: these are terms used to describe the institutional organisation of education rather than to imply a particular method of education. In other words, it is not suggested that it is possible to ‘deliver learning’, nor that learners are best thought of solely as “end users” of what is delivered.

Section 1: The contemporary landscape of relationships between state, private and third sector provision in education

The purpose of this section is to offer a broad outline of the contemporary education landscape, and to begin to chart some of the interactions between the state, private and third sector organisations that take place within it. It is clear from the work of the review authors that the divisions between the state and other actors are far from distinct. The notion of an education system wholly defined and provided by the state alone, or of privately-funded schooling that exists entirely independently, are each belied by the complex interchanges that constitute the operation of the various education markets as currently seen. The material produced through the reviews and interviews that addresses these interactions is examined below, under the following areas: responsibility for access, curriculum authorship, production of educational materials, and management of educational institutions, assessment and funding.

Responsibility for ensuring access to basic educational needs

There are strong cultural and legal frameworks that define schooling, including the individual child’s entitlement to schooling, and the responsibility of the state to provide it. These frameworks are now firmly embedded in European law and international charters. One’s identity as a subject of the state is recognised as being established in part through schooling, and the frameworks that support this are likely to remain in place. From a policy perspective, an important context for examining the current landscape is the 2006 Education and Inspections Act. There are a few key features of the Act that are worth highlighting: the emphasis on “empowering” schools by “devolving as much decision-making to them as possible”, the conception of Local Authorities (LAs) as ‘commissioners’ rather than ‘providers’ of education services with a duty to promote “choice and diversity”, and the efforts to make “links with external partners” available to all schools, all support the notion that responsibility for the delivery and constitution of education is not located within the duties of the national government but is being moved towards schools. Acknowledging, or encouraging, the contribution of external partners is something that creates room within policy for the various interactions between schools and other groups described below. Responsibility is still acknowledged, however: the state still has a role in ensuring “fair access” and moderating covert selection processes. It is the practical considerations of providing education that have moved, rather than the duty to ensure access to education: the state acts as regulator and mediator of education provision, ensuring basic motivations for a national education settlement are met, but aims to do this through working with other agencies, whether for-profit (or other) groups from the private sector or third sector organisations (faith, social and parent groups). In particular, the state has an obligation to employers to ensure that they are able to contribute towards the provision of “skills” amongst the workforce: the Leitch review also gives the government an opportunity to cast those within education as “customers” , a relationship between learner and provider that draws on the language of the private sector.

Within the reviews and discussions that took place, some basic principles underpinning the provision of education were identified. Most fundamentally, contributors identified a moral right of an individual to education, and a moral obligation on the part of the state to provide access to education. In addition to this moral contract between citizen and state, there are societal needs served by a national educational settlement: the need for individuals to form an identity as a citizen of the state and the need for the development and establishing of social values and norms. These processes require some form of recognition, in the form of certification and accreditation of individuals who have participated in a process of education, and providing this recognition is another social role fulfilled by education.

There are other groups with an interest in and responsibility for ensuring access to education. Families have a number of well-recognised responsibilities towards children’s learning. Most straightforwardly, they are expected to support their child’s learning in school through provision of a home environment in which homework can be undertaken, and through a wider respect and enthusiasm for learning: the desire to see their children launched on successful life paths is translated into a responsibility to invest in their learning ‘privately’ within the family, as well as publicly through school. Many feel the need to do more to provide access to an education they feel is best, whether by relocating to an area with well-regarded schools, or by funding their children’s education directly themselves, and this reflects a more general cultural expectation that families actively support and promote learning for their members. Traditionally this support has been assumed to be for children’s learning, though increasingly families will need to support learning of all their members.

Employers, too, are recognised as having a stake in the provision of education, though it is debateable how much of a responsibility they have to provide educational opportunities directly themselves. As a group their interests are explicitly acknowledged by the government through definitions of education that focus on the eventual ability of learners to contribute to the economic wellbeing of society, and through the provision of vocational education that is responsive to employers’ stated needs. Employers have had a large degree of influence on vocational qualifications, though increasingly the need for training that meets wider social needs rather than solely the needs of employers is recognised by policymakers. This is part of a more general tension between identifying and investing in long-term skills (often transferable and more in employees’ interests), and meeting immediate short-term skills gaps (often specifically related to a particular role). Encouraging companies to invest directly in training staff appropriately, either in-house or through external suppliers, is one approach, though this would make it no easier for those not in employment to gain skills, and it may be difficult to find appropriate training in some regions.

Contributors felt that there is, perhaps more strongly in the UK than in other European countries, a strong discourse of individual responsibility for taking up learning opportunities, what might be thought of ‘capitalising oneself’ with knowledge and capabilities. Schools are becoming sites for the inculcation of personal responsibility as a more general social value, encompassing health and well being, citizenship and political participation in addition to more traditional, subject learning. Some contributors felt that the increasing diversity of supply models across the sectors was likely to strengthen the argument for individual responsibility and self-management. This individual responsibility is most noticeable within the context of membership of the workforce and the concomitant necessity for people to ensure they possess the necessary skills for such membership, but is also resonant with arguments that make a social case for learning and personal development. Many learning activities that seek to further this take place outside formal educational settings, and are often described as constituting “informal” learning by researchers and commentators, though they may still be structured and require a degree of commitment from the learner. These learning experiences are likely to interact in some way with the state, private or third sectors when they occur, perhaps through the simple exchange of capital in exchange for tuition, through the use of a facility funded by one of these sectors, or to expedite the learner’s entry into a more formal learning environment.

Determining the curriculum

Private or independent schools are not obliged to follow the National Curriculum, though the majority work towards recognised national qualifications and so there is a degree of overlap. Little of the material gathered through the reviews and interviews addresses the independent sector specifically, and insofar as these schools are independent their examination might be thought less relevant to describing the relationships between state, private and public sectors.

State-funded schools in England follow the National Curriculum, designed and set by the state through the Qualifications and Curriculum Agency, and assessed through a series of national tests until the age of 16, when learners can sit national examinations. This curriculum is developed in partnership with other government agencies and external groups representing adult learners, vocational training, employers’ needs and other stakeholder priorities. It represents government aspirations for learners and their contribution to society, reflecting wider policy directions, such as a commitment to remaining competitive within the “knowledge economy” or the inculcation of a sense of citizenship, as well as aiming to establish essential skills such as literacy and numeracy. Over the twenty years of its existence the National Curriculum has responded to social changes and attempted to meet new needs, as instanced by the introduction of functional mathematics, the recent focus on scientific literacy and the establishment of technological subjects such as Information and Communications Technology (ICT).

Companies with an interest in the education sector, such as publishers and technology providers, can influence the development of the curriculum in a number of ways. Most directly, there are close links between individuals from education technology companies and policy-makers (for example, through the Intellect group) which allow these representatives of the private sector to offer their perspectives on policy direction, and government to share current thinking. More broadly, the private sector as a whole shapes understandings of the economic context in which education is operating, works to reinforce the notion that the education sector is in the service of the country’s economic wellbeing and often seeks to influence perceptions of appropriate future strategic directions for learning and education through publishing white papers, sponsorship of events and initiatives and funding independent research into learning and technology.

A particularly visible site of interaction between the public, private and third sectors is the academies programme, originally a programme in which publicly-funded schools received sponsorship from private firms or individuals. Intended to raise standards in inner-city areas, the involvement of the sponsor was explicitly intended to enable them to embed their values (assumed to be focussed on success and aspiration) within the ethos of the school, and the injection of private capital was originally intended to offset the “deprivation” of the inner-city locations in which they were based.  Private sector sponsorship has declined since the introduction of the programme, however, and the emphasis is now on attracting sponsorship from universities and the third sector, whose specialist knowledge it is thought will support the development of an academy’s own specialism: the minimum £2million contribution has been waived, and the emphasis is now on sponsors contributing educational expertise and demonstrating a commitment to social mobility, as demonstrated by the engagement of the RSA and the charity ARK with the academies programme. A number of new academies are not the ‘failing’ inner-city schools that were the original target, but are formerly independent schools seeking greater financial stability. Regardless of the nature of sponsors, they are accorded a part in the development of the curriculum each academy follows, provided core elements of the National Curriculum remain.

A small number of early sponsors of academies attracted controversy for their supposed embrace of contested subjects such as ‘intelligent design’, prompting public concern that there were possible tensions with accepted science curricula and mainstream thought. Some academies are explicitly schools with a religious character, or ‘faith schools’: around a third of state-maintained schools have a religious character, and this naturally informs the curriculum they present to their learners.

Private sector organisations directly providing education that focuses on their particular field or practice are in a position to centre curricula on their specific needs, tying learning much more closely to employment within a particular area than under more general learning activities. This might provide learners with an advantage insofar as they can be confident they are learning skills and dispositions that are appropriate for their employer, or eventual employer, but may limit the range of employers for whom they might work if what they learn is tied too closely to a particular company’s practices.

For companies engaging with education in this way, the issue of intellectual property becomes important, as engaging learners with their particular domain and practice might necessarily expose their IP to a greater extent than they would prefer: these firms need to balance the benefit of increasing the pool of employees or potential employees with appropriate skills with the difficulty of protecting their IP. More broadly, education can be seen as a site for the generation of new IP. The materials supporting teaching and learning produced by educational publishers constitute an important source of IP from a business perspective. Longer-term, many universities have defined sites of innovation within their organisations specifically for the generation of intellectual property (for example, Cambridge Enterprise and Imperial Innovations). However, while the materials used to support teaching a particular curriculum might be protected intellectual property, no mention of protecting curricula themselves was made within the research underlying this report.

Producing educational materials

The focus here is on educational materials that rely on or are disseminated through digital technologies, as this was emphasised in the reviews and interviews, but it ought to be noted that educational publishers themselves observe no distinction between “old media” publishers and “new media” publishers, with most offering both paper and digital versions of textbooks and support materials, as well as software. Within the reviews and interviews, no mention was made of toys, physical models or demonstration devices, technical equipment such as environmental sensors, or tangible or haptic technologies, for example: this reflects perhaps a current general conception of technological educational materials that revolves primarily around networked computers and the software that runs on them, though a number of the interviewees represent companies that sell products from several of these categories.

There is a general agreement within policy and industry that educational provision operates within a market, with a choice of providers and competition between suppliers. While in many respects this is a more accurate conception than imagining educational provision to flow from the state, it was noted by some contributors that it might not be recognised as a true market by publishers and technology providers working in sectors outside education. Government policy (for example, efforts to increase the number of computers in schools, or to integrate different data-management systems across institutions) and the injection of capital from a central source (through, for example, the e-learning credits scheme) have a distorting effect on the marketplace, determining needs and objectives, and although the government does not act as a central purchaser it exercises what Sefton-Green describes as monopsony power, shaping the focus and direction of suppliers. Some interviewees suggested that the education sector in the UK has also been used historically to stimulate the growth of technology-related skills across a wider national arena, driving domestic and corporate uptake of computers and related technologies. However, it was also noted that the private sector must necessarily be involved in the provision of technology as there is little government scope for becoming a manufacturer or software developer.

The purpose of the technology which is sold to schools is often to support administrative and management processes (pupil tracking, payroll administration, asset management and so on), rather than directly supporting learning. Rhetoric around the capacity of technology to support learning often emphasises the ways in which it supports individual development and offers the possibility of ‘personalised’ learning: however, information technologies are powerful tools of standardisation and massification, offering a great degree of bureaucratic control. This second, less visible use of information technology accounts for a greater proportion of schools’ software spending than software explicitly focussed on supporting learning (roughly around 13-15% of total technology spend within the schools’ market, as opposed to around 5-7% for learning software: the remainder is largely spent on hardware).

These figures are vague and uncertain, reflecting the difficulty of examining this market and the hidden nature of some associated costs. For example, in some schools technicians are employed in-house (and so feature as staff), while in others technicians are external and their cost is part of services provided by an external supplier. For universities, the cost of contributing to an open source project might be greatly reduced if students carry out the work as part of their course than if a member of staff does the same work. These blurred lines illustrate the muddy nature of the interactions between technology and education, and suggest that viewing “technology” as a separate domain is not always practical.

There are a number of different kinds of private-sector suppliers of educational technologies operating in England at the current time. There are large consumer electronics and software development companies for whom education is a small part of their business (for example, Apple, Oracle or Microsoft) and for whom the motivation for engaging in the education market was reckoned by contributors to be less profit than an opportunity to raise brand awareness, increase the familiarity of future consumers with their products and philosophies and to address issues of corporate social responsibility. As an adjunct to this group, there are some companies who, while not directly concerned with educational provision or technology, may shape its delivery and influence expectations of learners and parents through efforts intended to fulfil corporate social responsibility objectives (for example, Tesco’s Computers for Schools programme, or Morrison’s Let’s Grow scheme). Farook notes that there is often considerable resistance to these programmes if they are perceived as inappropriate. Where the benefit to both school and firm is clear and equal (for example, in the provision of access to branded sports equipment by students) this resistance may be lessened, and it seems clear that this relationship between state and private sector will continue to be developed. More subtly, these efforts can shape wider societal expectations around (for example) access to technology for learners.

There are a small number of large companies whose focus is on the education market, most visibly the international educational publisher Pearson and the UK-based hardware supplier RM. These two organisations have diversified their activities within England in recent years, with RM moving into the supply of software and a greater range of peripherals, and Pearson acquiring one of the national examination boards, Edexcel. In general, educational publishers appear to be moving away from the simple provision of hardware and software into supporting assessment and long-term service provision (particularly with respect to the Building Schools for the Future programme). It was suggested that over the coming years fewer large companies will be operating across a range of what were previously discrete markets, and a range of smaller companies will establish themselves by identifying and actively targeting particular niche areas (the publisher Rising High was cited as a strong example of this approach). For commercial companies, there is greater interest in maintaining their close relationships with schools rather than the FE or HE sectors, as the standardised nature of schools and some FE colleges makes it possible to create content that can be used (or delivered) on a national scale, as opposed to universities which have a tradition of creating their own intellectual resources.

There are concerns around the role played by these large firms and their relationships with local authorities and policy makers, with one interviewee describing them as a “cartel”. Publishers and developers shape learning through the materials and technologies that are made available to educational institutions, influencing expectations of teaching and procurement staff and necessarily shaping teaching practice, notwithstanding their claims to be responding to teaching practice. These claims are genuine and supported by the number of employees coming from local authorities or schools with a more nuanced and sympathetic understanding of education practice than a caricature of the aggressive salesman would imply. Still, the relationship between schools and suppliers has a circular nature, with schools to some extent relying on these firms to inform them of their purchasing options and firms relying on schools to communicate their purchasing needs: this is underlined by the claim of one interviewee that there are many fewer people involved in the education technology community outside schools than might be expected, with the same individuals moving between local authorities, government agencies and private companies.

One contributor suggested that schools are comparatively “unsophisticated” consumers of technology, being used to receiving subsidies and having different procurement patterns and expectations to commercial firms. Schools’ apparent failure to purchase technology in the same way as a commercial business, apart from reflecting the fact that schools have not traditionally been run along the same corporate lines, may also reflect a pre-existing set of attitudes towards technology that arose from the early days of using technology with computers, when a “hobbyist mentality” was more of a pre-requisite for engagement with technology inside or outside schools and a cottage industry of software developers and distributors arose.

Two kinds of ethos towards technology in schools seem to be illustrated from the interviews and reviews.  On the one hand it might be suggested that there is an acceptance of the ready-packaged and quality-assured software and hardware provision from large corporate players such as Pearson and RM, where technology expertise is assumed to be located outside the school and procurement decisions that rely on such expertise are happily passed to representatives or proxies of the market, reflecting the lack of time or enthusiasm within an institution for engaging with such decisions themselves. On the other hand, it could be said that there are still vestiges of a tradition of technological experimentation and development that locates expertise within the school (perhaps within individual teachers), perhaps seeing itself as linked to the university tradition of technological development. Although this second “DIY” tendency is vocal and engaged, and informs much of the aspirational debate amongst researchers and policy-makers, there is doubt over the effectiveness with which teachers are recruited to its standard, and there is little indication within the work examined here that it will become a mainstream attitude within schools.

This hobbyist or DIY attitude might in some ways be seen as part of a wider movement supporting the “open source” creation of computer software. On a practical note, much open source software is significantly cheaper than its commercial equivalents and benefits from the presence of associated user communities. This is mainly relevant to primary and secondary education: HE has a much more familiar relationship with open source software, with HE institutions often acting as centres for the use and production of open source material. The notion of “openness” has been a productive nucleus around which to collect other instances of “open” activity: for some academics, placing limitations of copyright and access on their work slows research and is counter to the spirit of academic endeavour, while for learners there are an increasing number of institutions offering access to content and accreditation, usually using web-based tools.

It is not only “open” approaches to learning that make use of digital technologies that enable remote communication. Many companies offer home tuition to school students via webcam sessions with remote tutors (for example, TutorVista and Global Scholar). The tutoring model is still based around real-time dialogue but the virtual presence technology allows (typically US) learners to take advantage of lower tutoring costs in other parts of the world (for example, in Singapore). There are also a handful of schools that are encouraging their teachers to develop online tutoring skills and are reaching out to a wider population with paid-for online provision. Online tutoring is therefore an opportunity for schools to participate in the digital education marketplace and to redefine their own communities, as well as a source of supplementary or even competing services.

There are a number of sites not affiliated with formal learning institutions that act as places to access materials explicitly intended to support learning. Some are wholly concerned with learning, whether academic or non-academic (for example, the School of Everything, 5min or Instructables), while others, such as YouTube, are more agnostic platforms that have become useful for people wanting to share techniques, advice or coaching. Collaborative opportunities online, such as blogs, message-boards, public wikis and so on, have become established as useful locations for the exchange and construction of knowledge with peers.

Managing educational institutions

The most high-profile interaction between the state and the private sector with respect to the management of schools in recent years is the Private Finance Initiative (PFI), in which the construction and management of public institutions is financed and delivered by consortia of private companies, who receive a revenue stream from the state over a fixed period of time. As an investment mechanism it has been widely employed across the public sector, perhaps most visibly for the provision of health services. PFI projects represent the largest investment of private capital in education currently, though as a procurement approach it has been strongly criticised on both economic and ideological grounds. There are practical difficulties associated with the approach: local authorities have not always had the skill to manage a PFI project successfully, and the recent economic climate has made it hard for consortia to raise capital. However, the same economic pressures make it unlikely that new public projects will be able to go ahead without the support of the private sector, and for now the PFI approach is sufficiently embedded within procurement processes for it to continue to be a favoured approach to funding infrastructure projects.

PFI engagement with education projects tends to extend as far as the provision of services related to the facilities constructed under the contract: this may involve funding staff on site, but their role is usually concerned with maintenance and service provision rather than directly with educational activities. Academies, as described above, are another way of involving the private sector in the provision of publicly-funded education, and the sponsors often make a greater contribution to the management of the school itself, appointing representatives to the governing body, recruiting members of the senior management team, contributing to the design of the curriculum, and directing to a large extent the ethos and vision that underpin the schools’ activities. The engagement of sponsors of academies with the management of the school is much greater than that of PFI consortia members.

Both PFI schemes and academies are established features of the education landscape in England. Less common is the management of maintained schools by for-profit companies, such as GEMS, Edison or Kunskapsskolan. These organisations differ from traditional independent or private schools in that their revenue is derived through district-wide contracts with state agencies for the management of publicly-funded schools. The three named here represent three different ways of engaging with the provision of public-sector education. In Sweden, Kunskapsskolan manages schools for profit through a government voucher scheme: the company is entering England as a non-profit sponsor of several academy schools. Edison Schools in the US originally managed publicly-funded schools on behalf of district authorities, though poor financial and educational results have led to their specialising in service provision rather than whole-school management. In England, Edison (as Edison Learning) have been contracted to provide school improvement services in Essex and North London, providing teaching staff as well as training and management. GEMS is based in Dubai and manages a string of independent schools globally aimed at the expatriate market, including England, teaching local curricula and the National Curriculum.

These for-profit organisations are qualitatively different providers of private education than traditional ‘public schools’, with the latter’s reliance on social networks to provide legacies and donations in addition to tuition fees received from parents. They are also multinational, reflecting the increasingly global nature of the education market. Many domestic education providers are beginning to expand internationally, using an institution’s brand and relationships with locally-based institutions to establish sites of education delivery overseas, either as a profit-making exercise or, more commonly, to support recruitment and intake among domestic institutions. Increasingly HE and FE institutions are competing globally rather than nationally, often against universities with a greater funding base, and awareness of this perhaps encourages a more enterprise-oriented disposition. Currently, international demand is for an ‘Anglo-Saxon model’, though it should be noted that this does not privilege providers from traditionally Anglo-Saxon backgrounds, and global Englishes are often more relevant to consumers than Standard British English. This tendency to equate an international outlook with economic globalisation is filtering down to school level: the Specialist Schools and Academies Trust runs an International Business Partnership Network encouraging financial partnerships between schools in different countries that are supported by local businesses, while some schools are keen to promote the development of skills supposedly demanded by a technologically-enabled global economy.

Independent education provision is under pressure from the redirection of some parents’ resources towards supplementary private tuition. The cost of such tuition is decreasing, with low-cost providers often following a model established overseas and offering affordable tuition in supermarkets and shopping malls following the pattern established in Singapore, Hong Kong and the US. Supplementing state education with private tuition is an increasingly legitimate part of mainstream provision, with tutoring for failing pupils offered by the government and Aimhigher funding used by some schools to provide tuition for pupils applying to Oxbridge.

There are a number of other minority approaches to school management. Most visible are state-funded schools run by organisations with a religious character, or faith schools. These are maintained by local authorities, with infrastructure owned and managed by a group – often a charity – with a religious focus, who have representation on the governing body. Staff and admissions may be appointed by the local authority or by the governing body, depending on the school’s voluntary controlled or voluntary aided status. Faith schools are valued by some outside the faith community for their supposed emphasis on broad social values and high levels of achievement, though public and political concerns regarding ethnic or secular segregation, religious extremism, social integration and the possible lack of accountability remain, possibly leading to greater scrutiny and regulation in future.

Foundation schools place a similar emphasis on the contribution of the governing body to the management of the school, with the local authority funding the school and the governing body owning the infrastructure and employing staff. Foundation schools may be faith schools, though in practice few are: the primary advantages for schools in having foundation status are greater control over management and admissions policies, and a more equal relationship with local authorities. The structure also allows groups traditionally not involved in the direct provision of formal education to manage a school, and there are examples of parents and community groups taking this opportunity, allowing a greater focus on issues of local concern, perhaps responding to a lack of school places, or a desire for stronger ties between home and school.

Foundation schools and academies represent two ways in which the third sector can manage and direct the provision of education. Another approach has been developed by the Young Foundation with the Studio Schools scheme, which departs from the usual way in which 14-19 education is structured by conceptualising the institution as a cluster of student-led businesses, employing students, teachers and non-teaching staff with expertise in business: the focus is on developing general skills and dispositions that support entry into the workplace and an entrepreneurial attitude.  The scheme has been recognised by the present government as an example of the middle way between full privatisation of education on one hand and centralised state delivery on the other that it believes best promotes the conditions for “innovation”.

Education does not necessarily have to happen in a school or formal institution: there has always been a minority of children who are educated outside the formal system, most often at their home. Home schooling presents a direct challenge to the state’s ability to deliver its responsibilities and commitments as outlined above, particularly in light of the growing emphasis on schools as part of a system of care for children in England and Wales. This is illustrated by the aims of ongoing Elective Home Education Review chaired by Graham Badman (to be published spring 2009), which is investigating whether councils are able to discharge their duties of care to children outside the school system, whether home schooling can account for the level of education children receive, and to what extent the curricula addressed within home learning environments is aligned with government policy such as Every Child Matters.

While it is difficult to provide an exact figure for the number of children schooled at home (estimates vary from fewer than 10000 to over 50000), there seems to be general agreement that numbers are gradually increasing. One possible factor in this growth is widely reckoned to be the increasing availability of learning tools and materials accessible online. Indeed, there are a small number of independent schools existing entirely online, offering timetabled lessons where interaction with teachers and classmates is through messageboard, voice over IP and video-conferencing software. While the mechanism of interaction may be novel, an emphasis on the traditional nature of the underlying pedagogic approach seems to be common to many. Some online schools claim that they are particularly appealing for students whose parents desire a higher degree of control over diet and environment during the day, or who currently have difficulty relating to other students. Online schooling also appeals to some expatriates who presumably feel that their local schooling options are not appropriate: they are also a cheaper option the Within the UK there are three wholly-online schools, with around 200 pupils between them. First College and Briteschool are smaller organisations, while Interhigh is supported by Tutors International, a private firm supplying tutors to families around the world. All offer online tuition for GCSE and A-level students, with Briteschool additionally offering primary tuition.

As noted above, much online HE material likely to be administered by the relevant institution (so, far example, MIT’s Open Courseware programme is part of the offline institution of MIT rather than being an online university). However, there are a growing number of universities that exist entirely online. The UN’s Global Alliance for Information and Communication Technology and Development (GAID) recently announced the formation of an online university, the University of the People, offering tuition-free, currently unaccredited courses in business administration and computer science: its focus is on providing access to university-level education in developing countries. Other entirely virtual universities, such as the US Army’s “eARMYU” and Jones International University, exist, addressing different sectors. Currently, a more usual approach currently within HE is to offer a blend of online and offline access to learning materials.

Assessment

Three purposes of accreditation were identified by contributors to the research, all social and/or political in origin but acting at different levels of stakeholder interest: legitimation (demonstrating that the national project of schooling young people ‘works’); differentiation (organising people into the kind of life paths and educational streams that are felt to be appropriate for them), and providing a personal record of achievement, to support life choices and goals. Arguably, the focus of political debate about education has moved from the second purpose to the first. No mention was made within the research of the role of assessment in the learning process, reflecting the emphasis on external structures of education rather than pedagogy. This resonates well with the findings of the DCSF Expert Group on Assessment who suggest that the government has four purposes in undertaking the assessment of young people: to optimise the effectiveness of pupils’ learning and teachers’ teaching; to hold individual schools accountable for their performance; to provide parents with information about their child’s progress; and to provide reliable information about national standards over time.

National high-stakes examinations are the form of assessment most often discussed in public fora: despite a popular conception that these are devised and administered entirely by the state, they are part of what Ofqual describe as “a market for qualifications”, provided by “qualification buyers” and “qualification sellers”. These examinations – most notably GCSEs and A-levels – are managed and assessed by independent examination boards, primarily AQA, OCR (part of Cambridge Assessment), Edexcel, and the City and Guilds Group. The City and Guilds Group and AQA are independent charities, while Cambridge Assessment is a non-profit. Edexcel, as noted above, is a private company owned by the publishing company Pearson, and has an income significantly in excess of the other major exam boards (over £200m in 2007 compared to AQA’s 2007 income of nearly £150m).

There are other qualifications providers not recognised by Ofqual, providing qualifications recognised within particular domains and sector. Accreditation from Ofqual recognises the qualifications offered by a particular awarding body as being within the the National Qualifications Framework, giving them greater national currency and providing a level of quality assurance. The number of recognised qualifications has grown from 2771 in 2001 to 8379 in 2008, a 26% increase, and the number of accredited awarding bodies has grown similarly to 140. The majority of providers and increases exist in the vocational sphere, with some specialist organisations (for example, the Associated Board of the Royal Schools of Music) and others that offer a wide range of qualifications (for example, the City and Guilds Group). Employers recognised as awarding bodies – for example, FlyBe and McDonalds – make up 2% of UK awarding bodies, though this proportion is expected to grow over the coming years as employers recognise the value of their qualifications having wider currency.

E-assessment, or the use of ICT to administer, evaluate and present the results of examinations, is a well-established part of the landscape, though not yet mainstream. There are a wide number of different approaches that fall under the term “e-assessment”, and some have met with more success than others. There are a complex set of cultural and logistical issues that vary across educational settings: security, reliability, trust and accuracy are all paramount. Against these constraints, e-assessment has the potential to save costs for institutions and to better support standardisation, making it easier to link assessment to other ICT-supported areas of education such as e-portfolios, detect plagiarism and provide students with timely feedback. While at present e-assessment schemes often require champions and technical intermediaries, a recent JISC report suggest that usability is improving, enabling teachers and non-technical staff to prepare their own assessment procedures.

Automation of existing tasks is perhaps the most readily-observed element of e-assessment, using technology to deliver tests online, and increasingly to mark students’ responses: multiple choice or short text answers are more amenable to processing by computer than longer texts, though these are still often sorted using computer software prior to being marked by a human, and text analysis techniques are improving, enabling programmes to offer evaluation on the quality of language and judge the content. This raises the possibility of e-assessment making more of a contribution to formative assessment practices in future, with the field developing from being a set of techniques for easing the administrative burdens of delivering tests to becoming a more central part of the learning process. Educational publishers, notably Pearson, are investing in e-assessment, which may make it possible for such firms to offer linked curriculum, assessment and qualification practices to educational institutions and individual learners. Some contributors noted, however, that developments in e-assessment techniques and the possibility of the easy movement of educational data more generally suggest that a modular approach to assessment is possible, with accreditation being offered as a standalone service, perhaps as a way of validating time spent engaging with course materials available on the MIT OpenCourseWare model.

Funding education

The primary source of funding for education is currently central government. State schools receive funds for running expenses from local authorities , who receive a Dedicated Schools Grant from central government intended to cover each schools’ three-year budget and the costs of other educational provision (such as providing for special educational needs). Local authorities also have responsibility for FE, ensuring young people and adults have access to work-based learning through the provision of diplomas and apprenticeships, and for commissioning education providers to offer work-based learning. Higher education is paid for directly from the Higher Education Funding Council of England (HEFCE), a non-departmental public body. The primary source of funding for education in England, then, is the taxpayer.

Within pre-14 education there are few current alternatives to this model. One way of structuring the disbursement of taxpayer -derived funds differently would be through a voucher system, in which vouchers representing the state’s investment in learners can be exchanged for educational provision of the learner’s or family’s choice. There are concerns over the ways in which implementing this approach may affect local inequalities, with different impacts imagined depending on whether private schools as well as publicly-funded schools may be chosen, the degree to which quality of educational provision varies within a region, or whether or not parents are allowed to top-up their voucher allowances from their own funds. In practice, within England pilot voucher schemes have not been as successful as their supporters might have liked, and although vouchers are a mechanism that supports parental choice and as such might be expected to remain a feature of educational debate, there are currently no plans to introduce voucher schemes on a national scale for children’s education.

The resources represented by vouchers still originate from the taxpayer. At present there appear to be few other sources of revenue for schools or institutions. Parents can fund their children’s education directly through private or independent schools, or supplement state provision of education through paying for private tuition as noted above. Farook notes that more than a quarter of children aged between 11 and 18 years old have had private tuition at some point in their lives, and although there is no consensus on the degree to which such tuition impacts academic achievement, and concern that it may increase disparities in educational attainment, private tuition is still a popular choice for many parents, particularly at levels where new examinations have been introduced, such as SATS in key stage 3. Tuition is frequently focussed on passing high-stakes examinations but might also focus on extra-curricular activities regarded as desirable by parents (such as music or sport). In recent years two major developments within the private tuition market have taken place. First, the emergence of low-cost providers has lowered the financial barriers to entry, with many also based outside traditional learning environments and located within shopping malls or supermarkets, perhaps giving them access to new markets. Second, families who might have sent their children to an independent school are increasingly choosing to invest in private tuition for their children as a cheaper option, increasing the number of children in state school (and in some areas putting more pressure on limited school places).  For some learners, private tuition can be a mark of inadequacy or a source of social embarrassment, and Farook suggests that peer-to-peer learning approaches facilitated by ICTs may provide a cheaper and more acceptable alternative to paid tuition.

Following the lead of policy in embracing the language of the private sector, some schools are adopting an entrepreneurial approach to supplementing the funding they receive from central government. Some are able to generate revenue from the use of their facilities, charging for the use of athletic resources for example. In others, pupils contribute to fundraising efforts. At its most direct, this entrepreneurial attitude manifests itself in the opening of for-profit branches of schools overseas, as Harrow and Dulwich College have, and Bristol Academy plans to. Many higher education institutions have taken advantage of their brand to expand overseas in a similar way, though their motivations are often more to do with supporting the domestic institution through encouraging take-up from overseas students than with profit, and it is unclear whether the factors supporting an entrepreneurial attitude within HE, such as an emphasis on innovation for economic benefit, will act in the same way for schools.

HE has explored many ways to supplement central funding. As universities and other HE institutions continue to be pressured by the global market in higher education, in particular from well-funded US institutions, one possibility is for HE institutions to become private institutions, thought this would be controversial and some academic disciplines may suffer if universities are able to offer courses that are in their own interest rather than in the national interest. While a full marketisation of the HE sector is unlikely, the perception that higher education primarily benefits the individual may support the removal of the current cap on tuition fees, and more widely mark a shift in student expectations, seeing themselves more as consumers of a service and demanding appropriate levels of care and provision with a greater emphasis on value for money.

Becoming private institutions themselves may be unlikely. However, universities have had close relationships with external private sector organisations throughout their history: most obviously, through philanthropic donations, funding scholarships and departments. More specific interactions are observed between commercial organisations and research groups working in areas with industrial application, with funds for specific research being made available by private sector groups. In recent years direct partnerships between departments and related organisations have begun to emerge, in which the commercial partners might shape the direction of the department and provide links and opportunities to students within their sector. In general, policy supports the notion of private enterprise taking a larger role in funding and supporting university expansion: it is not yet clear what effect this might have on the focus and nature of research and teaching within HE institutions, nor whether work with no immediate application within an industry will suffer as a result.

Links between industry and education are a more obvious feature of work-based learning initiatives. Local authorities have responsibility for ensuring young people and adults have access to work-based learning, through the provision of diplomas and apprenticeships, and for commissioning education providers to offer work-based learning: work-based learning can refer to learning activities that take place within a work environment, or (when used in a UK policy context) to vocational training for young people. Increasingly, post-Leitch, FE providers are being asked to focus on meeting the perceived skills needs of employers, and this creates a role for employers in shaping and supporting the design of FE courses. Employers frequently fund training for their own workforce themselves, though there is a tension between an organisation’s short-term needs and employees’ longer-term training and learning needs, as employers often prefer to fund short courses addressing specific, often role-related, skills, while employees require transferable qualifications that may not ultimately benefit their employer.

Section 2: What features of the contemporary landscape will persist?

There are a number of features of the contemporary landscape that we can assume will remain relevant to a discussion of the relationship between private and public spheres as far as it affects education in twenty years’ time: these might promote or work against the development of some or all of those features described above.

Taking a broad perspective to begin with, we might say that the following list of factors will continue to operate, providing a context for future education. There are of course still many uncertainties associated with each of these.

• Diversity of provision.

o    There will continue to be a range of approaches towards the delivery and provision of education. In part this will reflect the diversity of requirements on the part of learners through population change and a greater emphasis on lifelong learning. Other factors influencing this diversity of provision include changing attitudes towards workplace and informal learning, the effects of a marketised education sector, and a greater range of possible technological affordances. The customer base for educational products and services is likely to diversify as schooling extends to homes, workplaces, supermarkets and community learning centres.

o    Ofqual expect to see more employers seeking recognition as awarding bodies in order to gain currency for their training beyond the limits of their organisation (Ofqual, 2009)

• The global marketplace will continue to shape higher education provision.

o    This is a consequence of many larger global economic currents: some are described here. Economic growth has created a demand for educational provision perceived as high-quality for cultural and historical reasons (for example, the current demand in China and South-East Asia for accreditation from ‘European’ or ‘Anglo-Saxon’ HE institutions), as well as offering HE institutions the opportunity to pursue more commercial relationships that would impact their brand in their home countries. Increased mobility has made it easier for academics and researchers to travel between institutions, while existing relationships with multinational commercial and industrial partners may give institutions access to other organisations and partners in different countries. Many UK universities actively market their courses to students from other countries. Pressure to compete as global research institutions has already driven some UK universities to merge.

• There will continue to be an arm’s length relationship between private sector and direct educational provision.

o    While the number of ways in which the state may devolve educational provision to the private sector have grown in recent years, widespread political and cultural commitment to the idea that the state has responsibility for the education of its citizens is likely to ensure that the private sector is not handed direct responsibility for the maintenance of state-owned schools without the state retaining some kind of an intermediary role between third-party providers and learners, or at least retaining an oversight role that addresses accountability.

• State involvement in early years educational provision will remain central to conception of a national educational settlement.

o    Similarly, there is an equally widespread commitment to the notion of a minimum educational entitlement and a common educational experience: the use of schools as a site for socialisation and the inculcation of shared values, together with the economic benefits of allowing parents to work rather than care for children during the day, suggests that the most appropriate age for the provision of a minimal educational entitlement is likely to be during a learner’s early years. Some contributors suggested that the specific ages intended for this provision may change, perhaps starting at age 3 and ceasing at 14, or not starting until age 7 and continuing till age 21, depending perhaps on the perception of the role of education or developmental effects of formal schooling.

o    The government will continue to create markets for educational services through its own targeted investment in and regulation of education, but contributors felt that ‘the stakes are too high’ for this stage to be left entirely to market forces. State involvement in this stage is likely to be seen as providing an initial investment in ‘learning to learn’ skills that should enable individuals to take responsibility for their learning throughout life.

• The influence of private sector on curriculum and policy will continue.

o    The private sector is likely to continue to influence policy directly and indirectly, through its commercial activities within the education market and through its contributions to wider debates on the appropriate aims and outcomes of education. Market offerings from private-sector learning providers may influence policy indirectly through competition, with the state under pressure to respond to successful private-sector courses by making similar learning programmes available.

• There will continue to be a requirement for lifelong learning.

o    Demographic changes (most visibly an aging society) and changing workplace requirements are likely to maintain the importance of lifelong learning, both as a route to ensuring minimal skill levels and, for some, as a path to further development, whether professional or personal. There is already a trend towards colleges becoming centres of learning for the wider community, collating services that include vocational, work-based, adult and leisure learning, as well as delivery of 14-19 qualifications. However, some contributors felt that the government’s vision of lifelong learning remained fragmented, unconvincing and unstructured. Much investment in ‘lifelong learning’ has in practice been remedial in relation to core provision, rather than an attempt to build or develop new learning.

• Social practices of institutions and learners will continue to shape learning.

o    Several contributors identified the importance of recognising inertia and the durability of established social relationships in discussing educational change. Policy statements, technological opportunities, social changes from outside the sector and market forces will each or together effect change only when they are able to overcome established expectations around educational practice, or when these expectations are no longer part of practitioners’ and learners’ understandings of education,

More specifically, there are a number of present-day features of the education landscape that authors and interviewees have identified within the Challenge as likely to persist:

• Assessment will continue to move towards technologically-supported automation.

o    This might be an example of technology being embraced primarily as a labour-saving tool to increase perceived efficiency, rather than being driven by a particular pedagogic commitment to using technology in a certain way (although of course any automation of assessment will carry with it an implicit pedagogy). However, there is currently within the education community an awareness that new technologies allow the possibility of logging data from learners’ behaviour that might well support the exploration of different approaches to assessment. The recent high-profile difficulties surrounding national SAT examinations both support and challenge this move towards automation, creating a demand for more reliable and trustworthy assessment while at the same time reducing the appetite for risk-taking.

o    As more of learners’ practice takes place with technological devices capable of recording data, more classroom activity will be available for evaluation and technological assessment will be able to play a greater role in formative assessment.

• Peer production and ‘web 2.0′ approaches to the collaborative generation of formal educational materials and activities will continue to be marginal in the face of institutional and cultural barriers.

o    Despite the enthusiasm for and fascination with recent innovations in web-based communication and data-sharing techniques (often referred to with terms such as ‘crowdsourcing’ or ‘mash-ups’), there is little evidence to date that anybody beyond a small and accomplished minority is able to create materials in this way, or to show how these attitudes towards the creation of educational resources might be embedded meaningfully within existing approaches towards teaching and learning. This is not to deny their potential or the support that can be found within contemporary theories of learning for the exploration and development of such approaches: rather, it is an acknowledgement that the history of digital technology in schools suggests that potential alone, however genuine or widely-acknowledged, is not sufficient to overcome wider cultural barriers to the introduction of new paradigms, and that it has historically taken decades rather than years for new technologies to find a place within education. Not all teachers or learners will want to be producers.

o    Learners may be unlikely to make these sorts of applications directly themselves: however, third-party developers may be able to take advantage of new approaches towards the repurposing and redistribution of data and information. Similarly, HE institutions are likely to continue to use their role as contributors to open-source projects and as sites of technological innovation to take advantage of and develop the affordances of new collaborative technologies.

• Investment in and exploration of location-aware technologies will continue.

o    The inherited discourse of the web as an alternative space (cyberspace) also needed to be set alongside trends in location-aware technologies (GPS, geotagging etc) which support an information-enhanced experience of real-world locations. Soon, all locations will be virtual as well as real, and virtual locations will be increasingly differentiated (including by geographical locale, particularly where governments control what is available on local networks). More mobile devices and better access to networks on the move will continue to enrich locations for learning, including remote communities and field sites. Cyberspace and real space will interpenetrate one another, with the result that without a conscious effort to disconnect, all learning is likely to take place in this new hybrid space.

• Teaching will continue to be a distinctive professional activity with its own values and skills.

o    However, educational staff will continue to need the support of content creators and service providers. As third-party providers continue to play a role in day-to-day teaching and learning, there will continue to be a demand for technical and product support to assist in the use of tools and content, both in their practical use and more broadly in understanding how new tools might impact well-established approaches to teaching and learning.

o    A wider range of people may undertake teaching and support of learning as part of their professional role, particularly at the post-foundational stages, whether after or as part of an established career in a different sector.

• The nature of knowledge will continue to be contested in the face of debates around authenticity and authority.

o    Although the area of knowledge is more directly addressed by other areas of the BCH programme, there are a number of ways in which developments in digital technology and their associated social practices make this a relevant consideration for this research area. In particular, the need to be confident of the provenance and authority of digitally-gained knowledge will become pressing: not only will people need to be sure of the source and authenticity of information they encounter, but will also need to ensure that they produce information whose authenticity is sufficiently beyond question, in particular when identifying themselves online. Most visibly, there will remain a tension between policy (and associated providers’) views of education and emerging student practices and strategies,

• Understandings of information rights and intellectual property will be reconfigured in the light of technologically-informed expectations.

o    It is already the case that there exists a tension between the established legal and orthodox attitudes towards ownership and re-use of information, and those more aligned with the affordances of digital technology. It is also highly likely that retaining these established societal norms will incur an increasingly heavy regulatory cost, making it more probable that they will be restructured in some way. The widespread sharing and redistribution of content – legal, illegal and unlegislated – will remain a feature of this landscape. However, there is high uncertainty over the form they will take: will the current ‘wild west’ succumb to legal normalisation? Or will a tiered system of information and content evolve as different creators and distributors choose different approaches?

• Tutorship and supplementary learning will become increasingly important elements of the education landscape.

o    The middle classes will continue to use their household resources to secure access to these additional educational opportunities. However, competition between new providers making use of web technologies and novel learning locations is currently lowering the costs of such learning: additionally, independent schools membership is likely to decline at least in the short term as the global economic environment remains depressed, and tuition coupled with state school attendance may be seen to be an adequate alternative to private education for many middle-class parents.

• Marketing through schools by companies not directly related to education (for example, Morrisons’ Let’s Grow campaign, Tesco’s Computers for Schools project) will remain at the current level.

o    While it is true that there is little public appetite for overt branding of any part of the educational experience, there is an appeal for companies in visibly addressing their social responsibilities: this, coupled with the professed desire for stronger links between schools and local communities and a greater acceptance of corporate involvement in the public sphere, will ensure that schemes for the provision of equipment or infrastructure from non-education organisations remain worth individual companies’ investment.

• Workplaces will continue to ensure their own training and learning requirements are met, whether by lobbying for the inclusion of certain skills and competencies in curricula, or by providing them directly.

o    Workplaces already form a large marketplace for training and development activities, with individual organisations sometimes able to embrace innovation in ways that traditional learning institutions are not (for example, using videogame technology in simulating not only technical procedures but also interpersonal workplace relationships). This flexibility, coupled with the growing prominence of the private sector in the public sphere and the emphasis on the need for schools and HE institutions to serve the economy, might see techniques and approaches developed in the private sector being more frequently seen in traditional education and lifelong learning.

• Private firms will continue to be used to effect state education provision.

o    While the current economic climate may dampen the recent enthusiasm for the practices of the private sector, the general principle of contracting individual services to third parties is sufficiently established, and the relationships between some private firms and public service agencies sufficiently entangled (as noted by Sefton-Green), that it seems unlikely this will change significantly over the next two decades, even if an adequately practical and compelling case were made (short, perhaps of incontrovertible evidence of widespread and systemic fraud, which at the present moment might provoke state action and a recapturing of the public space: this is unlikely). One practical outcome of this might be that uptake of open source tools in mainstream education meets strong opposition.

o    Alternatively, more educational suppliers may move into the provision of qualifications and accreditation, making their content more accessible but charging more for participation in their assessment programmes.

o    Managerial approaches to education are likely to continue to be seen within the culture of educational institutions, further legitimising the engagement of the private sector.

• There will continue to be widespread online provision of learning opportunities.

o    While there are currently many technical and cultural barriers within mainstream schools that prevent full access to web materials, there are a growing number of instances of online provision that support formal and informal learning, originating from both geographically-located and virtual institutions. Experiences of MIT OpenCourseware, VideoJug, Second Life, 5mins and Instructables are evolving the norms and expectations that will be more widely adopted over the coming years.

• Public awareness and conceptions of the science of learning will continue to have an impact on views about education.

o    These understandings, whether shared by professional or academic practitioners, will have an effect on what is politically possible in and through education. Reductive accounts of learning in terms of genetic capability or brain chemistry might have more purchase on public consciousness than social and cultural accounts, particularly in light of discussion on cognitive enhancements or genetic technologies. As parents and students invest more directly in education, scientific and pseudo-scientific discourses about learning may be employed more overtly in support of particular private services or public approaches.

Section 3: What changes of direction in state/market/third sector provision of education do we see emerging?

Here we list movements that are sufficiently high-level to be considered as trends in one direction or another. All of these operate under larger changes in the relationship between the public and private sectors: some are specific to education, but many are education-specific instances of wider trends, for example towards greater responsibility for one’s own good and wellbeing. And all are written with an understanding that the notion of a simple binary between “public” and “private” is illusory, as illustrated by the recent series of government interventions within the heart of the free market.

• Increasing responsibility for provision of individual education moves from the state towards the individual and their family groups.

o    This could lead to significant levels of exclusion amongst those lacking the capital to ensure appropriate, or any, provision. However, it might also make it possible for some groups to meet the requirements and needs of some learners in a tailored fashion, perhaps through locally-focussed small schools, which might be the product of genuine community effort, or a carefully-branded offering from educational multinationals.

o    This move suggests a recasting of, or at least a greater emphasis on, the relationship between learner and institution as one of customer and provider.

• Increasing emphasis on health, wellbeing, social skills, citizenship and civil participation as things to be fostered within formal education

o    A wider and more speculative movement might be towards the re-imagining of learning as an essential part of general health and wellbeing.

• Increasing direct investment by middle-class families in extranormal provision of education

o    This might also lead to increasing interest in and respect given to ‘learning science’ discourses centred around psuedo-neurological accounts of learning.

• Increasing diversity of education market

o    Greater choice and competition, or a greater number of groups identifying themselves as possible markets with specific learning requirements, could lead to a plethora of ways of addressing all parts of education, from assessment and accreditation to post-education learning and childcare.

o    Educational publishers that currently receive more benefit from ‘off-the-shelf’ approaches to education may become more able to provide granularised, modular products that are more easily integrated with custom learning environments.

• New learning practices facilitated by changes in digital technology

o    Necessarily supporting informal learning to begin with as these appear outside a formal learning context (possible uncertainty: gap between innovation inside and outside schools decreases?)

o    In a formal context, developers of education management software are working to make it easier use and gather information on learners to build a more comprehensive picture of their behaviours, preferences, abilities and achievements, with the intention of supporting learning rather than merely facilitating pupil management. Using this data effectively would require new forms of pedagogy, which in addition to having to recognise the ethical and legal issues involved in using data in this way are likely to based on a quantitative, process-driven approach to learning, given the present-day philosophies apparently underpinning work in this area.

o    Another possible direction might be for educational technology suppliers to concentrate on equipping learning institutions to enable learners to use their own personal devices, so focussing on providing robust network access, appropriate data sharing and protection systems, device-agnostic authentication systems and other necessary infrastructure features.

• Disaggregation of education into content, teaching and accreditation in some areas

o    This might happen as a likely consequence of the ready availability of content and open learning materials. In addition to high profile projects in the US several EU universities are now offering their course content for open access, but with potential students applying and paying for accreditation. The funding models are still emergent and the outcomes by no means certain. One envisaged future has poor, low-status universities bowing out of content and curriculum altogether, offering instead a tutoring service to help people gain accreditation (in-house or external), or brokerage of opportunities on an information, advice and guidance model. Franchising by high status universities and colleges might then become the norm, with a corresponding loss of diversity in the HE and FE sectors. This might impact lower down the age range not only because a re-stratification of post-school institutions would create new pressures at the point of transition, but indirectly through the concentration of power in the hands of accrediting bodies across the sectors. As the technologies of content became virtually ubiquitous, technologies for accreditation, certification, management of learning records, and assessment, will become critical to the sector and potentially highly profitable.

o    This separation between content and accreditation may act as a motivator for commercial companies to open access to the materials they currently charge for. For example, Pearson might see more people engaging with learning material for Edexcel qualifications if the costs were reduced, building the market for their qualification, which they could then charge more for.

• Internationalisation of more than higher education

o    If this plays itself out among secondary and primary schools, this would be following a recognised path of innovation within education, particularly with respect to digital technology but also in other domains, whereby practices seen first within HE are found later within secondary and then primary schools. Alternatively, and perhaps reflected more visibly in the present, further education and lifelong learning opportunities, alongside supplementary tuition online or in drop-in centres, may be offered by multinational organisations.

• Increasing movement of some education institutions to brand themselves on a global scale

o    There is a movement for some schools, largely independent, to open ‘branches’ abroad: Harrow has schools in China and Thailand, while Dulwich College has schools in China, the income from which is intended to support means-tested pupils attendance at the London school.

o    There are likely to be more UK students studying abroad, and more students from traditional overseas markets studying in locations other than the UK, as China, for example, continues to turn itself into a “host” country offering globally competitive education opportunities.

o    This and the previous trend have implications for curriculum design, in particular the need to be aware of culturally-specific aspects of existing curricula that may not be as appropriate for a more global audience.

• Third sector involvement in providing specialist services to schools rather than managing whole institutions themselves.

o    This would sidestep questions of accountability and mechanisms of redress in the event of service failure. However, there would be equally pressing questions raised about the possible use of third sector organisations as a substitute for government-funded provision.

• Increased diversity of locations associated with learning
  • The association of purpose-built buildings with education may be weakened through the locating of for-profit education services within shopping malls and supermarkets, the use of community facilities by educational institutions (for example through partnerships with leisure centres) and the emphasis on libraries and museums as places affording learners opportunities for active educational engagement rather than being only passive repositories of artefacts.

• Tensions between knowledge cultures, primarily along generational lines

o    New information technologies are likely to reconfigure attitudes towards knowledge use and creation, and those groups that are less familiar with their use may find that existing ideas about ownership, authenticity and identity are challenged by the new practices that emerge alongside these new technologies.

Section 4: Major uncertainties

The trends described above have clear directions of travel, but the ways in which they play out in the world and their implications are uncertain. In this section we briefly outline some of the major areas of uncertainty with respect to the ways in which education might be structured and organised in the coming years.

Despite the impetus towards a marketised school system described above, it is far from certain outcome. There are political obstacles: many in society are unwilling to imagine a fully-marketised school system, and the need to keep the private sector at arm’s length noted above is likely to continue to obtain. There are risks that the push towards marketisation originating in discourses of ‘choice’ and ‘personalisation’ may tend more towards segregation and division if given full rein. More practically, there are many changes that would be necessary for the school system to be fully-marketised. Some possible structural changes could include the linking of LA funding to performance, capitation following pupils in addition to funding, the removal of LA control over the funding and organisation of schools, schools given the ability to opt-out of the delivery of a national curriculum and of national staff payment agreements, a robust system for managing school failure, and a national school bus or other transportation system which would enable choice to be meaningful and not constrained geographically as at present.

A related uncertainty is the role played by more affordable private tuition. As noted above, the increase in affordable supplementary provision of education may lead to an increased number of middle-class children in state schools, as their parents conclude that combing state schooling with extra tuition is comparable to a wholly-private education. However, as the affordability of private and supplementary tuition becomes more visible, traditional resistances to private education – a perception that it is too expensive, or only relevant to a higher social elite – may be reduced, encouraging greater uptake. This might be more likely to benefit new entrants into the private sector rather than the traditional ‘public schools’: additionally, the immediate impacts of the economic depression will tend to work against increased uptake of private education in the short term.

There are a number of areas of uncertainty concerning the sites within education where innovation and innovative practices might emerge. Specifically, the marketisation of content designed to support teaching and learning, the development of open-source software in schools and the role of national public service broadcasting are ones with plausible but contrasting possible alternative paths. All of these have at their centre the effect of communications technology on existing knowledge practices.

Currently, material intended to support teaching and learning, or ‘content’, is often assumed to be valuable through its designation as ‘intellectual property’: dissemination relies on its remaining unchanged, and on its being useful to educators. Existing stresses on our notions of IP may lead to an exploration of the value of protecting the design and instruction processes associated with such content, rather than simply the static material. This approach would be counter in spirit to the ‘open source’ attitudes described above: we have already noted, however, that within mainstream schools there are strong forces countering the widespread adoption of open source software and the notion of freely distributing intellectual property. A recent OECD report warned that commercial interests might start patenting content based on the expertise that has gone into its instructional design. This was particularly a concern with respect to educational materials for the US schools market, where content is almost entirely outsourced.

Regarding open source software in education, contributors to the research accepted that operating systems other than those from Microsoft will remain rare in mainstream schools, due in part to teachers’ unfamiliarity with the software. However, it is also accepted that many schools (particularly primary schools) contract third-party suppliers to maintain and manage their technology infrastructure. If it became worthwhile for these firms to supply open source software, perhaps thorough a need to price competitively, or demands from schools for more customised software, then provided they also offered adequate support for its use it might not be unrealistic to imagine a wider range of operating systems in use across the sector. For smaller or more marginal schools, perhaps those at a greater remove from the culture of mainstream schooling, open source might be a more appropriate option for financial or perhaps cultural reasons. One major uncertainty that emerged from the interviews carried out was the effect that the entry into the workplace of students familiar with open source projects will have on the software market, given the argument put forward by some contributors that software companies are keen to establish their product as central to students’ practice in order to maximise the likelihood of those students preferring it in their professional practice.

Of course, information available online may not be open source. Amongst contributors to the event and interviews there appeared to be an assumption that the availability of online information would change profoundly what would be required of the education system, with a related assumption that the teaching of information would give way to coaching in information skills of various kinds and for various settings. Networked information, along with the associated networks and services, would continue to be free, openly available and highly accessible. The question of who would own the networks and data warehouses, and who by extension would control the information being shared and accessed by users, was not raised. However, Jonathan Zittrain’s recent book notes that the Internet is at something of a crossroads, with a proliferation of ’sterile’ devices that give basic access without allowing users to share and generate content. In one possible future, then, the Internet becomes a commercial mass medium, with a large majority of passive consumers having their attention sold to advertisers as the price of access – or having to pay more directly. For the Internet to remain a place of creative interchange, a critical mass of users must continue to use computer-like devices to generate and enrich content. How IP is managed on the internet will also of course have a profound impact on the future of online information. It was noted that everything on the web is owned and commercially mediated, and that norms of usage are becoming framed in legal and commercial terms rather than the open, creative terms on which the web originally evolved. Ultimately, authority might be derived from the strength of the brand providing access to information, raising the possibility of organisations whose core business has traditionally not been education providing courses and access on the strength of their existing relationship with consumers.

Public service broadcasters (PSBs) are acknowledged to have responsibilities towards supporting education, broadly defined, and as their role within the national media landscape changes, so too will the ways in which they support education. The ways in which they do this currently, and the ways in which they might do so in future, are complex when examined in detail, but taking a more general view there are two main visible tendencies, each a reflection of the wider discussions about the future roles of PSBs. One is an explicit commitment to formal institutional education, with a focus on providing ‘learning content’ through profit-making, following a path established by movements such as the BBC Active partnership between Pearson Education and BBC Worldwide. The other follows from a recognition that PSBs are in a unique position to foster innovation and support new ways of engaging with media technology, and that their engagement with education should reflect that, continuing along the direction that elements of Channel 4 and the BBC are exploring. It is not currently clear how the two directions would continue to coexist, although it is equally difficult to say that they are necessarily counter to one another.

PSBs are given a national remit, with the historic exception of the BBC World Service, and engagement with overseas territories tends to be through profit-making arms of the organisations. Similarly, HE institutions are increasingly engaging with other territories for reasons of profit, as noted above. There is an uncertainty here around language. Demand for English language education materials is high, and while English is the basis for global conversations likely to remain so. However, while the BBC, the British Council and others promote their English language materials through associating them with Standard British English and its perceived authoritative nature as the ‘original’ or ‘most correct’ form of English, as global middle classes grow in confidence other Englishes may become more appropriate, reflecting greater national self-confidence.

From the event and the research it is clear that there is uncertainty about who will support innovation in society and the economy? Employers tend to upskill their workforce in areas relevant to their short-term commercial horizons, but society needs the capacity to respond to change on a wider basis and a longer time frame. Traditionally, providing this capacity has been the role of higher education, both through research and development and through the production of higher order skills. If higher education is to be more closely tied to the requirements of graduate employers, and if research is to be further dissociated from teaching (e.g. through a re-stratification of the sector), universities’ capacity to support innovation on a longer time-scale may be compromised. On the other hand, widening access to higher education, as required by the Government’s current commitments to higher order skills, may mean a larger percentage of the population acquiring such skills.

The question of whether national boundaries will be made irrelevant by networked technology is frequently heard within debates on the relationship between technology and education, and it is certainly true that new global communications infrastructures, combined with corporate branding and positioning, has enabled some education institutions to become less tightly coupled to one particular geographic location. On the other, trends towards a greater emphasis on geolocative and mobile technologies and services within consumer electronics and web use patterns, and towards regional governance and regulation of internet services, might make the notion of ‘cyberspace’ or ‘the virtual’ as being places independent of geography outmoded. Networked life may be much more tightly coupled to physical location than previously imagined, with consequences for educational activities that rely on different models of technologically-mediated communication. Indeed, the increasing diversity of provision, and local variety of needs and requirements, could see educational becoming a regional rather than a national project.

It was suggested that a non-technology-based education might become highly desirable, particularly if technology continued to support massification and diversification of teachers’ roles. Alternatives such as Steiner schools are already proving attractive to middle class parents, and could present a counter-balance to an increasingly technologised schooling system. Related to this idea was the notion of an unmediated intellect becoming a status symbol in a world where performance enhancement through drugs and digital devices/implants/grafts were to become commonplace, or perhaps instead such a mind would be a sign of deviance. Perhaps the ‘conscious effort to disconnect’ might become a counter-cultural movement among groups of parents and young people.

There are a number of uncertainties within formal education that are worth noting in the context of future educational organisation and provision, around the notion of specialisation, accreditation and teaching as a profession. Currently, the majority of young learners in formal education are encouraged to specialise, choosing between ’science’ and ‘arts’ subjects at school and then later a more specialised discipline or area in higher or further education, represented as a choice made in support of an eventual professional career. Discourses of personalisation and ‘learning styles’, as well as pressure on schools to meet attainment targets, may encourage young people to focus on one particular area even earlier than this: alternatively, recognition that longer working lives make it more likely that careers will cover many disciplines and an emphasis on genuine lifelong learning might together remove the need for young people to specialise in initial education. These alternatives act to shape the future role of accreditation: is it most relevant as a badge indicating that compulsory schooling has been completed, as a means of differentiating between young people, as a mark of competence in a given area, or as something else entirely?

Related to this is the question of when and where specialisation might occur in the education system. Diversification of schooling around different types of provision, seen as a likely possibility by some contributors, might entrench social stratification. Vocational training could migrate further down the age range, with large companies or corporate sectors more actively involved in creation of curricula and sponsoring specialised schools. Universities may forge new relationships with schools that focus on particular domains of expertise, allowing schools to offer specialised courses of education that serve as introductions to degree-level learning and induct students into particular knowledge communities earlier than at present. At an extreme this could be seen as a return to a form of guild system for at least a section of the school population. Alternatively (or, in a highly diverse system, relatedly), different communities could take responsibility for supporting different kinds of learning centre, embracing different educational values, and fulfilling social as well as educational needs.

Accreditation and certification through formal education is likely to play a continuing role in ‘organising’ young people into different life paths, but it is unclear how far that process will be driven by the diverse capabilities and goals of learners and how far by external pressures, for example to prioritise access to higher levels of learning or meet the needs of employers. If the move towards competence-based accreditation continues, the trend towards individualisation might well be enhanced, as responsibility is placed on the individual to demonstrate a standard or competence, rather than on the provider to ‘cover’ the relevant knowledge and skills. Different forms of accreditation might be developed to recognise informal know-how and practice-based competences: speculatively these might be technology-supported, e.g. based on video recordings, perhaps with analysis and tagging. This would ensure the further diversification of qualifications and standards of achievement, and might also render much more permeable the boundaries between formal and informal/non-formal learning.

These, and other, possibilities will naturally drive changes in the teaching profession. The trend towards the disaggregation of educational activity into separate domains of ‘content’, ‘delivery’, and ‘assessment’ calls into question the need for a single role of ‘teacher’, though may open up new opportunities for specialists in these three areas. Increasing financial and commercial pressures may lead to greater variation in contract terms within the profession, with more members of the workforce working as temporary or short-term members of educational organisations. Alternatively, these same pressures may lead institutions to consider the members of their teaching workforce as marketable assets, promoting their expertise and experience as qualities that reflect positively on the institution. Finally, if roles within the teaching workforce are to change significantly, it may be that responsibility for training the workforce may need to reflect this, through ‘in-house training’, different levels of professional accreditation, greater emphasis on professional development and possible increased engagement with sectors outside education.

One argument that arose from the event was that the trend of ‘outsourcing authority and control’ to private companies (i.e. transferring public education funds to commercial providers of content and accreditation, rather than paying teachers to provide them in-house) would undermine the profession, and therefore the quality of education. This argument was also expressed in slightly different terms elsewhere in the discussion: the disaggregation of educational provision into content, teaching and accreditation would undermine the integrity (literally) of the teaching profession. Counter to this came the argument that budgetary devolution to schools opens up a market for ‘niche’ learning approaches and areas of specialism. Schools could purchase services to fit their own curriculum model on a piecemeal basis (and there would be new opportunities here for commercial providers, such as Montessori learning materials), but the curriculum would be strongly associated with the school and there would be an investment in teachers as the source of ideas and practices relevant to the school’s particular mission.

An important intersection of the private sector and education occurs in the context of pharmaceutical interventions: drugs intended to address conditions such as ADHD are manufactured and distributed by private companies, and are a feature of many classrooms. The debates around the place of pharmaceutical interventions within education institutions are complex and ongoing, and likely to inform the response of educators and parents to the likely increased availability of drugs intended to enhance cognition and other pharmaceutical and biological enhancements. If such enhancements became the norm in particular workplaces (for example, within engineering, banking or medicine), and if cognitive processes could genuinely be enhanced without cost to the individual, then come contributors felt that their use in higher education would also become the norm. In schools, a competitive assessment regime would make use of enhancements inevitable, whether or not they were regarded as legitimate. Access to such enhancements would probably come to be regarded in the same way as access to books or a balanced diet – possibly unfair, but not ‘cheating’, and accessed more easily by well-resourced middle-class families. Alternatives were proposed, however. After a period of differential access, pressure might grow for an equal entitlement as is beginning to happen with networked computers: schools might even be under pressure to provide medication along the lines of school milk. Drugs might be used as a form of social control, with medicated or enhanced classes being better behaved and more amenable to learning messages: low capacity to learn could become a medicalised issue, like ADHD. It was felt by some that, as part of these practices, diagnostic testing would be an area of likely development, given the existing interest in diagnosing children with particular learning needs. Genetic forms of diagnostic test might become more prevalent in education, by transfer from other sectors such as insurance and medicine. Perhaps such an emphasis on the biological would see education considered more properly an aspect of health and wellbeing in the future, with pharmacological and health providers moving into the provision of education as a natural part of their core business.

Section 5: Implications for educational policy makers today

These trends and movements within and between the private, third and state sectors all have implications for education and educational policy to some degree. In some cases, the patterns described are a consequence of policy or otherwise already acknowledged by it (for example, the increasing presence of a market culture within education). In others, education policy has not yet begun to visibly engage with the implications of some of the trends presented here (for example, the tension between encouraging localisation and decentralisation, and treating education as a national project). Here we briefly outline some of the implications for education policy arising from the foregoing overview of the relationships between the state, the private and the third sectors.

There are large areas of uncertainty associated with these interactions. Will education publishers continue their project of vertical integration? Will grass-roots collaborative technologies subvert commercial interests? To what extent will it be acceptable for the state to fund institutions that represent minority values? As the sector diversifies, questions of this nature will multiply. However, keeping track of sites of challenge and innovation will become increasingly problematic without a deliberate effort to remain informed and receptive. Collaborative technologies make it easier to develop new practices under the radar. New forms of education may emerge in England that developed overseas where their growth may not have been followed. Received ideas about what is and is not ‘education’ may cause individuals to miss the evolution of new forms of learning practice. In developing the capacity to manage uncertainty, it will be helpful to establish practices that enable the sector to monitor activities centred around learning beyond formal state education, including informal learning practices and learning within the workforce.

Three areas that will be of particular relevance to policymakers arising from the reviews and interviews are the nature of schools, the disaggregation of content and accreditation, and the influence of commercial activity on shaping educational provision.

Much of the foregoing discussion draws attention to the possibility of schools no longer being a core organising structure for education, perhaps as a result of the decentralised nature of new learning networks and practices, or the greater role played by employers and corporate groups in ensuring skills provision. Where they continue to exist as a corporate entity, they may well not be exclusively located within a physical building: school infrastructure may be shared with other local groups or partners, or schools might hire appropriate working space from commercial firms as other corporate groups do. Meanwhile the school would still be able to function effectively and ensure its brand remained robust through partnerships with other institutions or through a strong online provision. This is counter to our current conception of schools as a fundamental element of schooling and an appropriate unit around which to structure state interaction with learners. It may be worth examining the assumption that bricks and mortar schools will continue to be at the heart of education, and exploring alternative mechanisms for distributing state support for learning or effecting national policy interventions.

A second theme throughout the research has been the separation of content from teaching or accreditation. In particular, there is a strong trend towards making educational resources freely available online, whether funded by institutions as in the case of the OpenCourseWare consortium or by individuals as in the case of many contributors to (for example) http://5min.com. There is a wealth of educational content available: however, much of it is not necessarily encountered with a teacher, nor is it necessarily able to lead to a qualification. This raises a number of questions, many of which would fall within policy-makers’ sphere of interest. How do learners gain recognition and acknowledgement for their effort in engaging with this content? What is the role of the teacher if they are no longer as able to mediate the content with which learners engage? If there is a rise in paid-for accreditation services, how is accountability ensured and regulation established? These questions will need to have been considered if the effects of this disaggregation are to be managed well.

The third relevant theme arising from the research is effects of horizontal and vertical integration of the education market on the educational landscape. The possibility of a single commercial publisher being in a position to supply a physical learning environment, design the curriculum followed in that environment and award qualifications to learners based on that curriculum is now a reality following Pearson’s investments in schools in China and in Edexcel. This vertical integration raises questions again about the role of the private sector in the provision of a public good, and the ways in which a single provider might eventually be in a position, through providing all aspects of an educational experience, to distort the market in their interest, rather than in the interests of learners or wider society. Horizontal integration within the education market raises different but related questions of accountability and transparency, as areas previously assumed to be unrelated become part of a corporate provider’s portfolio of interests. The private sector has little motivation for making these connections and interests transparent: it would benefit the sector as a whole for policy to be active in monitoring the interconnections between interests within the education market.

The outcomes of this research effort also suggest three considerations for the exploration of educational futures. First, contributors noted that any discussion of technology in education and the role it may play in future developments ought to look both at its impacts at the ‘micro’ level of individual learners’ interactions with technology, and at the ‘macro’ level of the institutions developing or responding to new technologies. Focussing on one or the other would lead to a distorted and unrealistic view of the effects that might be expected from new educational technologies. Second, many interviewees noted that useful educational futures would foreground the likely decrease in public funding and its effect on resources available to education, as this would challenge many of the structures and mechanisms that currently effect educational provision. Finally, and most importantly, discussions on the future of education ought to make every effort to incorporate and acknowledge the values and goals that underpin education, as these ultimately will inform whether or not education is judged to be successful in the future.

Appendix 1: Activities undertaken within the Challenge

The Challenge is intended to help the Beyond Current Horizons programme understand the following overarching question:

• How might education delivery be structured and organised in 2025 in the light of changes in

o    public/private relationships and

o    development of digital and bio technologies?

Specifically, the work commissioned in this challenge aimed to illustrate:

• Key trends in the relationships between state, private and third sector provision of public services
• Key uncertainties and potential discontinuities within this domain
• How these trends potentially intersect with developments in science and technology
• The range of potential futures these trends might point to from the present to 2025-2050

Work was initially intended to be commissioned under this Challenge from July 2008 under the leadership of an external academic, on the same model as the other four Challenges within the BCH programme. However, the original Challenge lead resigned from the role in September 2008 due to pressing professional commitments. Subsequently, Futurelab have undertook the commissioning of papers, under a revised plan that reflected the compressed timescale and enabled this Challenge to meet its milestones at the same point in the programme as the other four Challenges. The revised plan was been approved by the BCH Programme Board and the DCSF.

• This revised plan comprised the following activities:
• Commissioning 4 substantive reviews in key thematic areas:

o    Public/private relationships in education

o    Existing educational provision and digital technologies: political economy, new models of delivery and developing markets

o    The digital landscape and new education providers

o    The relationships between health and education providers

• Conducting a series of interviews with leading thinkers and practitioners in industry, academia and policy sectors
• Running an event to bring together research, industry and policy sectors to identify emergent and future trends in public/private/third sector provision.

The industry, academia and policy interviews (Oct – Nov 2008)

In addition to commissioning the reviews described above, this Challenge drew on interviews carried out with individuals working at the intersection of public and private sector education provision: this reflects the comparative lack of academic evidence on the relationship between these sectors with regard to the delivery of education, and furnishes the programme with a selection of current concerns and forward-oriented insights from those shaping and understanding the interactions between these three sectors.

These interviews informed the commissioned reviews. Where the interviewee’s approval has been obtained, the transcripts will also be made available as standalone resources.

The event (November 2008)

On the 19^th November 2008 an event took place at the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining (http://www.iom3.org/content/location-map) which brought together a range of attendees from policy, academia and industry to examine the broad questions underpinning this Challenge. How might the education ‘market’ might be changed by the development of new digital education platforms – for example, what ‘new’ education providers might emerge through the development of online offerings? What relationships between commercial providers and mainstream educational institutions might develop? Is there a future for ‘open’ education resources? How might local and global education provision and governance change in the context of online educational resources? What relationship between public and private provision might develop?

Themes and key interactions between private, state and third sectors were identified by participants in this event: these were summarised from notes and transcripts by Helen Beetham and are incorporated in the synoptic report above.

Participating in the event were:

• Richard Sandford (facilitator), Futurelab
• David Istance, OECD, CERI
• Andreia Santos, Open University
• Julian Sefton-Green, Freelance/Futurelab
• Jeremy Silver, outgoing CEO Sibelius
• Tim Tarrant, TDA
• Steve Taylor, Stripey Design
• Ed Tranham, Meissa Limited

Aims and agenda

The Challenge 5 Event was organised with the aim of bringing together key thinkers in the Challenge area and eliciting ideas that might not yet be visible in the published literature of the field, as well as providing an opportunity to cross-check issues emerging from commissioned reviews. The overall aim, as with all Challenge Events, was to support the construction of coherent, robust and relevant scenarios of alternative educational futures.

The agenda followed the two organising themes of the Challenge:

• to describe some of the social and political factors shaping the future delivery of education, particularly shaping the likely balance between public and private sector provision
• to review some of the relevant technological (digital and biological) trends and describe their relationships with the social and political factors shaping the future delivery of education

Appendix 2: Work commissioned under the Challenge

Public/private relationships in education (Faizal Farook)

This review is specifically concerned with understanding the current trends and potential future trajectories of public/private relationships in education, through a review of the existing evidence and current trends centred around the following indicative questions relating to the development of educational provision over the next 10-15 years:

• Who takes responsibility for ensuring access to education – individual/state/ community/workplace?  Where does this responsibility lie today? How might this change over the coming years? What might lead to these changes?
• What types of education provision may be offered by the state and what by other bodies – private sector/individual/community/voluntary?
• What sort of structural institutional relationships pertain today and which might develop in managing and delivering education in different configurations of state/private/third sector relationships?
• What curriculum implications might ensure from any changes in provision?
• What workforce is implied by any changes?
• What financial arrangements might be developed to enable new forms of education delivery – vouchers/ local schemes/ local providers?
• What risks might emerge for which groups from these models of provision?
• How does accreditation and certification play out?

Existing educational provision and digital technologies: political economy, new models of delivery and developing markets (Julian Sefton-Green)

This review is concerned with understanding the way in which developments in digital technologies – both in terms of the technology industry and the resources that it develops – might change the way in which mainstream education is ‘delivered’. It focuses around two inter-related but distinct subthemes: firstly, the relationship between the existing digital technology industry and state education, and secondly, the ways in which digital technology platforms create opportunities for this education ‘industry’ itself to change its mode and purpose of delivery. As before, this is explored through a review of the existing evidence and current trends that relate to the development of educational provision over the next 10-15 years with respect to the following issues:

• What are the relationships between digital technology industries and education provision at present? How might these develop in future?
• How are the design and implementation of digital technologies for education by commercial companies shaping delivery of education?
• To what extent do the commercial companies developing digital tools promote or facilitate particular models and ideas of education?
• How/does the involvement of digital technology industries in education change the relationship between schools and students – to what extent are students seen as a market or potential future consumers?
• How does free, libre, open source software compare with these approaches? Are there characteristic differences between these and proprietary/commercial suppliers?
• What different models of provision are offered by free, libre and open source development approaches? What are the limits or possibilities offered by these?
• How are existing education providers (schools/universities) likely to ‘deliver’ education differently through the use of online resources
• Will online resources enable education providers to identify new markets and extend their existing remit?
• What new models of delivery may be enabled by digital technologies? Might these models allow them to meet the needs of those they already serve differently?
• Might new models of provision enable existing providers to develop new funding streams – what are the implications of this for the ‘public good’ of education?
• What new opportunities do digital technologies offer to voluntary/ informal education sectors?
• Are there going to be different levels of ‘access’ to education for different people using different tools – i.e. those who have access to one sort of platform get one sort of access etc.

The digital landscape and new education providers (Briony Greenhill)

This review is concerned with understanding the role that may be played in educational provision by organisations and sectors who are currently rarely considered part of mainstream educational provision, or by completely new arrangements of educational provision. It is intended to help the BCH programme understand what new providers might enter the education arena and the sorts of institutional, financial, curricular and assessment relationships that might emerge.

• What new ‘providers’ of education are enabled by the development of web and other technologies – e.g. school of everything, 5min, you tube, homeschooling networks, commercial providers providing customer training and support
• What happens to the traditional publishing industry – how might organisations like Pearson, the Guardian and others develop?
• What happens with existing broadcasters with public service remit – what sort of educational provision might they develop?
• How might digital technologies enable workplace training and education providers to offer new models of learning?
• Might open source models of education and communities of learning flourish – and in what ways might these lead to new forms of provision?
• What are the implications of new providers for curriculum and assessment – what new offers might these providers make to learners?
• What forms of accreditation and development currently exist and might be developed in a diverse landscape of provision?
• How might learners navigate these different providers?
• What are the implications for ownership of knowledge and resources of developments in online provision from diverse parties – for example, for educational provision in Second Life, what ownership of IP models may develop?

The relationships between health and education providers (Nick Lee)

This is a broadly speculative piece exploring the potential relationships between health and education sectors in the design and delivery of education, considering in particular how the pharmaceutical industry currently relates to medical professionals and exploring whether there are potential indications there of how similar relationships might develop with education professionals. It should also explore the current relationships between the private sector (including digital technology companies) and education, and examine how the pharmaceutical industry might develop similar relationships. In particular, current attempts to site discourses of ‘wellbeing’ within formal education are be examined in light of developments within cosmetic pharmacology and neuroscience. How might pharmaceutical companies come to be involved in state education – in what roles? And what relationships might develop between pharmaceutical companies and individuals/professionals working in the education sector – what new codes of practice might emerge?

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation

http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/educationandinspectionsact/docs/Guide%20to%20the%20Education%20and%20Inspections%20Act.pdf

http://www.dius.gov.uk/publications/worldclassskills.pdf

http://www.intellectuk.org/

Futurelab has received funding from Microsoft’s Partners in Learning scheme to support its Enquiring Minds research programme

http://www.standards.dfes.gov.uk/academies/what_are_academies/?version=1

“Academies, Trusts and Higher Education: Prospectus”: DFES 2007 (http://www.standards.dfes.gov.uk/academies/pdf/AcademiesTrustProspectus.pdf?version=1)

http://www.thersa.org/projects/education-legacy/rsa-academy—tipton

http://www.arkonline.org/

For example, the Open University’s OpenLearn project (http://labspace.open.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=4341), itself part of a wider European effort (MORIL), or the MIT Open Courseware initiative.

http://www.schoolofeverything.com/

http://www.5min.com/

http://www.instructables.com/

http://www.youtube.com/

http://www.gemseducation.com/

http://www.edisonschools.com/ in the US, http://www.edisonlearning.net/ in the UK

http://www.kunskapsskolan.se/foretaget/inenglish.4.1d32e45f86b8ae04c7fff213.html

See for example, http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB112604287494033169.html, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/16/us/complex-calculations-on-academics.html and Saltman , K.(2005), “The Edison Schools: Corporate Schooling and the Assault on Public Education” Routledge (ISBN: 978-0-415-95046-6)

http://www.ssat-inet.net/aboutus/sponsorus/ibpn.aspx

For example, Sir Bernard Lovell School in Bristol: http://www.sirbernardlovell.s-gloucs.sch.uk/v4/internationalism.php

“Pupil characteristics and class sizes in maintained schools in England, January 2008″ DCSF 2008 (http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000786/SFR_09_2008.pdf)

For example, the Bolnore School Group (http://www.bolnoreschoolgroup.org/) and Elmgreen Sceondary School (http://www.elmgreenschool.com/)

http://www.youngfoundation.org/home/themes/studio-schools, http://launchpad.youngfoundation.org/fund/learning-launchpad/events/studio-schools

Speech by Gordon Brown, May 2009 (text at http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page19209)

http://www.govtoday.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=354:morgan-action-to-ensure-childrens-education-a-welfare&catid=52:sustainable-communities&Itemid=21,  http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2009/jun/05/home-schooling-education-crack-down, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/7838783.stm

http://www.firstcollege.co.uk/

http://www.briteschool.co.uk/

http://www.interhigh.co.uk

http://www.tutors-international.com

http://www.un-gaid.org/

http://www.uopeople.org/

Report of the Expert Group on Assessment, DCSF 2009, ref: DCSF-00532-2009 (http://publications.dcsf.gov.uk//DownloadHandler.aspx?ProductId=DCSF-00532-2009&VariantID=Report+of+the+Expert+Group+on+Assessment+PDF&)

“Annual qualifications market report”, Ofqual 2009 ( http://www.ofqual.gov.uk/files/09-4141-annual-qualifications-market-report-april-2009.pdf)

Ofqual 2009

“Review of Advanced E-Assessment Techniques”, JISC 2009 (http://www.jisc.ac.uk/media/documents/projects/raeatfinalreportpdf.pdf)

For example, Wandsworth Council halted their scheme in 1996 (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/councils-pressure-ministers-to-drop-nursery-voucher-scheme-1357165.html)

For example, Explore Learning have a branch in Sainsbury’s supermarket in Hampton

F0r example,  Ideastore (http://www.ideastore.co.uk/)

http://www.itpro.co.uk/603639/becta-open-source-and-education-too-little-too-late

For example, MIT (http://ocw.mit.edu) and Stanford, Utah State (http://ocw.usu.edu/)

See for example the Moril project at http://oer.issuelab.org/sd_clicks/download2/towards_european_wide_quality_and_benchmarking_of_open_educational_resources

http://www.downes.ca/cgi-bin/page.cgi?post=33401

Innovation in the Knowledge Economy, 2004: http://www.oecd.org/LongAbstract/0,3425,en_2649_39263294_31658285_1_1_1_1,00.html

Zittrain, 2008, “The Future of the Internet and how to stop it”, Yale University Press (available at http://futureoftheinternet.org/)

http://www.bbcactive.com/

Channel 4’s commissioning strategy for education content can be seen here: http://www.channel4.com/corporate/4producers/commissioning/4learning_2.html

For example,  http://backstage.bbc.co.uk/news/archives/2009/01/bettr_and_teach_1.html

1. Every child matters

Since 2004, UK education policy has been shaped by ‘Every Child Matters’ (ECM). This provides for a new ‘joined-up’ approach to the delivery of children’s services such as education, health and child protection. It also requires service providers to deliver measurable improvements in children’s ability to:

• Be healthy
• Stay safe
• Enjoy and achieve
• Make a positive contribution
• Achieve economic well-being

One reason for the adoption of this approach was the long running concern that specific children’s protection needs were sometimes lost in the gaps between services (Laming, 2003). There was also a concern that relative supply-side capture of both education and health services had made it difficult over the years to access efficiencies and synergies that a more holistic approach to the child might offer. For example, from a traditional teacher’s perspective it may be difficult to justify the use of limited resources to discuss curriculum and pedagogy with a non-teacher, say a health psychologist, even though learning about self, beliefs and behaviours and health outcomes might all be closely linked in the perspectives of policy makers, parents and students, and use of these connections might speed positive behaviour change. Joining up services is expected to make it easier for service providers to coordinate their efforts.

A shift of emphasis from supply-side to demand-side perspectives can also be seen in the attention ECM gives to children’s views of service provision and of their own needs, both locally in consultation with Children’s Trusts, and nationally through Children’s Commissioners. Whatever the real outcomes for the influence that children have, ECM has certainly established a default assumption that children should be consulted. It has also established the view that what matters primarily is the well-being of children, not the operational convenience of service providers. There are two features of ECM that are of particular significance to the present discussion:

• Relationships between health and education services are now open to re-negotiation on an issue-by-issue, initiative-by-initiative basis in the light of ECM aims
• Children’s views of the services they receive will be solicited and may inform future service delivery

The recently published Children’s Plan (2007), a ten year strategy for improving UK childhoods, underlines both of these key points. It adds commitments to making clear improvements in children’s health, including obesity levels, and to reducing the numbers of young offenders. Together these policy directives establish a firm connection between education services and children’s health and behaviour. These conditions arguably increase the scope for education and health providers, whether state-, charitable- or commercially-funded to form strategic alliances.

2. The promise of improved education services through Academies

Currently UK government is committed to establishing 400 academy schools, having already established about 100. Opposition party support for the programme suggests this policy will survive a future change of government. Academies are all-ability, independent state schools funded in parity with other state schools, but established and managed by academy sponsors (variously faith groups, businesses, universities, philanthropists and educational foundations) most often in partnership with local authorities. Commercial sponsors are required to invest £2 million in a newly established academy, while ‘educational’ sponsors invest their reputation rather than money in the success of the academy. Typically based in purpose-built or recently renovated accommodation, Academies have tended, so far, to serve relatively deprived communities with a recent history of failing schools.

Academies manage their own budgets, answering directly to Secretary of State for Children Schools and Families under the terms of their funding agreements. Their funding and governance, independent of local authority control, makes them relatively free to invest in educational resources, such as IT, and to meet National Curriculum objectives as their leading teachers and governors see fit, as long as they can convince OFSTED of their plans. Thus the performance of Academies is closely scrutinised, the expectation being that their relative freedom should translate into innovative and excellent teaching strategies delivering improved educational outcomes measurable in terms of pupils’ GCSE performance. Campaigners against Academies (eg www.antiacademies.org.uk) claim that Academies’ governance structure means that they lack local democratic accountability, raising questions about their ability to respond to local communities’ needs and wants.

Key points to note here are:

• Academies are expected to innovate and their leaders are under high pressure to ensure their pupils perform
• Academies are a very clear example of a purchaser/provider split in education delivery: local and national authorities are no longer to act as providers of education but should act instead as commissioners of education
• Academies’ strategic positioning within education market and ways of delivering national curriculum are relatively open to the influence of their sponsors.

Clearly, not all schools are Academies. However, their relative freedom to experiment in the new policy context set by ECM and the Children’s Plan and their close relationship with central government makes them a likely source of, and be test-beds for, future initiatives.

ECM diminishes conceptual and practical boundaries between ‘education’ and ‘health’. Couple this with the accountability regime surrounding academies and their innovation brief, and pupils’ health could become not only a key assessment criterion but also a key ‘lever’ in working toward excellence. Thus education will become more porous to health information. There are reasons for thinking that health provision may also become more porous to education providers. I am aware of an Academy that is turning its approach to pupils’ physical education into a marketable product, becoming a ‘health provider’ of sorts for other schools. Further, the attention of health policy makers is turning from informing the public with health messages toward individual behaviour change (Taylor, 2008). It may be that education professionals and institutions are seen as possessing valuable skills in this area.

3. Pharmaceutical trading conditions and future strategy

As the table of worries below indicates, the pharmaceutical industry was experiencing declining profitability even during the recent economic boom.

Pharma Marketing News 2005

http://pharmamkting.blogspot.com/2005/01/drug-pricesdeclining-profits-top.html

Pharmaceutical development and testing is a high risk business with both the efficacy and safety of candidate drugs in doubt until relatively late stages of development. From a profitability perspective a sensible development strategy is to focus attention on candidate drugs that are likely to have a large market in the affluent minority world. This accounts for the recent growth of ‘life-style’ drugs (Flower, 2004) such as Viagra and the emergence of the category ‘medically enhanced normality’ (Møldrup et al, 2003). The figures above also suggest that pharmaceutical businesses are motivated to influence government regulation of drug development and health policy.

The scoping exercise reported in ‘Drugs Futures 2025′ (Office of Science and Technology, 2005) brought policy makers, representatives of the pharmaceutical industry, and others together.  It offers some insight into the industry’s current and near future strategies. One aspect is of direct relevance here: the development of cognition enhancers (CE). Such CEs are believed to strengthen a range of cognitive functions, including memory, reasoning and concentration, by selectively enhancing or diminishing neurotransmitter function and synaptic efficacy. Regulators and the pharmaceutical industry expect both the size and product range of CE markets to expand in the near future. There is a history of soft drink and food manufacturers adding CEs to their products (Coke, Red Bull). Arguably, combining a CE with an otherwise desirable product would shift the conditions of consumer choice toward the state of ambient consumption that caffeine has long enjoyed. Food and soft drink manufacturers may act in concert with pharmaceutical manufacturers in the development of such products in the near future. An expansion of unregulated pharmaceutical CEA production by domestic and overseas concerns is also envisaged.

According to the anecdotal reports of some commentators (Turner and Sahakian, 2006) many adults and children who have no medically identified cognitive deficits are already finding uses for these agents, hoping to improve their performance in education, work and leisure. There is a large existing market for non-pharmaceutical agents such as dietary supplements and herbs and a new market is emerging in the ‘off-label’ use of pharmaceuticals. In this new market, drugs developed to treat pathological conditions are used by those with no diagnosed need in the hope of enhancement. Ritalin, for example, is often prescribed in cases of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), but can also be taken in the hope of boosting powers of concentration that are understood as ‘normal’. Although pharmaceutical research and development activities are often subject to the ethical constraint that they must aim at finding a treatment for a pathology, consumers with no pathological condition are relatively free to experiment with the many opportunities and risks presented by self-prescription of pharmaceuticals, sourced through the internet or social networks.

4. How effective is the current range of CEs?

Jones et al (2007) identify 27 major agents believed to have cognition enhancing potential. These include ten dietary supplements and seventeen pharmaceuticals. Horne (2008) provides a synoptic review of evidence of their effectiveness which I summarise below.

i.        Nutrachemicals: dietary supplements and vitamins

Vitamins E, B6, B12, folate, thiamine, lecithin, neurosteroids and Ginko biloba. There is insufficient evidence to assess their efficacy although there are suggestions of an association between vitamin B6 and memory in healthy individuals.

ii.        Cholinergic drugs

These drugs enhance neural transmission through the cholinergic system that uses acetylcholine as its neurotransmitter. Cholinesterase inhibitors reducing the effectiveness of enzymes that breakdown acetylcholine, thus making it more available within the brain. Lab tests have shown cognitive improvements in healthy subjects, although effects on different cognitive abilities vary between individuals. Nicotine and related compounds have been shown to have beneficial effects on attention, learning and memory in healthy subjects.

iii.        Psychomotor stimulant drugs

These are often prescribed for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (Adderall, Ritalin), where there is good evidence of their effectiveness. Ritalin can enhance spatial working memory, cognitive flexibility and reaction time in young healthy adults, but effects on verbal learning, vigilance and long term memory are relatively small and restricted to the special conditions found in the lab.

iv.        Atypical stimulants : modafinil

Marketed as treatment for excessive sleepiness, there is evidence that modafinil (provigil) can benefit some cognitive functions in young healthy adults including verbal working memory, visual recognition, planning performance and executive inhibitory control. No memory enhancement has been demonstrated. Means by which the effects are produced is unknown.

v.        Cerebral vasodilators

Cerebral vasodilators widen blood vessels in the brain. There is little evidence that they enhance cognitive function in healthy individuals.

It is clear that there is more evidence for some CEs than for others, but also that there are gaps in evidence. While the availability of a high standard of scientific evidence may be salient for some actors, for others possibility and anecdote are just as convincing.  As Martin et al (2008) argue, bio-science development, marketing and public reception are shaped by an economy of hope as well as available evidence. The ‘gold standard’ of medicines research, the double-blind control study, is certainly not the only available metric of effectiveness, even if it can claim to be the best. It is likely, then, that individuals and perhaps organisations will find their own ‘tests’ of CEs.

Drug Futures 2025 (2005) also raises the issue of drugs testing. As more psychoactive and enhancing drugs are brought to formal and informal markets so the technology for detecting their use has become more widely available. For example Access Diagnostics (www.drug-testing-kit.co.uk) offer a saliva test kit at a rate of £5.50 per test to cover cannabis, cocaine, opiates, amphetamines and benzodiazepine that promises results within 10 minutes. According to Drugs Futures 2025 such testing is likely to be an increasingly common feature of the management of drug use in the classroom and at work, but it is unclear just what types of drugs will be tested for in what circumstances. For example a test might be used to assess a child’s compliance with a prescribed mood or performance-altering substance and another might be used to deter the same child from the use of recreational drugs. Some US schools apparently allow children who have been diagnosed with ADHD to attend school only on the condition that they have taken their medication.

B. Relationships

1. Might relationships between educators and private concerns in the information technology and health sectors come to resemble those between medics and drug companies?

There is a good deal of research and commentary on relations between pharmaceutical companies and medical service providers. Much of this work is critical in intent, raising questions about the balance between the influence over medics’ prescription habits and the support the industry offers medics in pursuing their professional goals and status. Moynihan (2003) gives pithy expression to the issues when he asks ‘who pays for the pizza?’ But this is more complicated than a question of luncheon bribery. It is not clear that the sponsorship of professional meetings and conferences by commercial interests, for example, is inappropriate. If medics and drug companies are ‘entangled’ with one another, this is the result of decades of mutual support and shared interest. Are there reasons to think that educational professionals of the near future might encounter similar relationships and ethical issues?

It has proved difficult to find published peer-reviewed evidence relevant to this question. However, the author recently enjoyed a ‘guinea-pig’ role in an information technology firm’s new marketing strategy. Having seen my name on publicity material for a conference organised by an educational research charity, the sales director invited me to address a small audience of IT marketers and academy heads. He had never invited an academic to speak before. A pleasant lunch was provided.  Key elements of this meeting indicate that strong parallels between education and health marketing and public relations strategies are emerging. These include the mobilization of an ‘expert’ to give the meeting a respectable research/professional development flavour, the provision of free lunch and travel budgets, and a smooth segue into post-lunch session of product demonstration.

2. What factors might strengthen relationships between educators and private sector organisations?

There are structural parallels between the emergent organization of primary health care and the burgeoning Academies programme that can shed further light on our issue and lend the anecdote above a policy context. As Pollock et al (2007) argue, 2003 saw the creation of a market in primary care. Primary care trusts in England, health boards in Scotland and local health boards in Wales gained new powers to negotiate contracts with commercial companies. This has brought about a diversification of providers in the health-care market. The range of health care providers, often firms employing general practitioners or practices managed by general practitioners, are now regulated primarily by commercial contract. There is a close parallel here with the purchaser/provider split that converted Local Authorities into commissioners rather than providers of educational services and the independent status enjoyed by Academies. In both cases the split is used in the hope of reducing supply-side capture, of locking ‘market discipline’ into service provision chains and, ultimately, of improving services to individuals.

Current regulations already allow academy sponsors a good deal of creative leeway when it comes to delivering on OFSTED defined targets. The Times Educational Supplement (14 November 2008) reports on a deal involving Edison Schools, a profit-making business, taking charge of up to 12 academy schools charging each academy £1.2 million for a three year contract. Full payment will be conditional on improvements in exam performance and pupil behaviour.

As this report indicates, the policy context has significant consequences for the dynamics of key relationships. The establishment of purchaser/provider splits decreases the practical relevance of the moralised and politicised distinction between ‘public’ and ‘commercial’ service provision within professionals’ everyday decision-making. It also replaces a hierarchical scheme of centralised decision making with a relatively dispersed range of decision and negotiation points. A number of assessments of this are possible. For Pollock et al (2007), like antiacademies.org, this will diminish local public accountability of service provision. From a current government point of view it will make services more responsive to individuals (including children) allowing for the greater personalisation of public services (Leadbeater, 2004). From the point of view of the current paper, however, it seems likely that educators will become more available for the influence and persuasion of commercial interests as they come to view such relationships as beneficial to the service delivery they are responsible for.

3. The emergence of a new educational ’strategic imaginary’?

Publicly funded education has long involved relationships with commercial organisations. From exam boards to publishing houses, exchange and conversion between commercial interest and ‘disinterested’ professional bodies, between saleable product and authoritative knowledge, has a long history. So what might be novel about increased pharmaceutical or IT business involvement in today’s education policy environment?

In 2007 Durham County Council investigated the effects of a fish oil dietary supplement on pupils’ GCSE exam results. They began with 3000 pupils at year 11 taking supplements at home and at school. The fish oil supplements were provided free of charge by the company Equazen, manufacturer of such products as the widely available ‘eyeq chews’, a fruit flavoured, sweetened preparation of ‘naturally sourced’ Omega 3 and Omega 6 oils. By the time of the GCSE exams around 800 pupils were still compliant with the programme. In order to estimate the effects of the supplements on GCSE outcomes, the Council’s Children and Young People’s Services division compared the results of children who had remained compliant with those of children who had not taken the fish oil that Equazen provided. The two groups’ performance did differ, Equazen takers scoring higher than the others.

This investigation generated a great deal of positive publicity for fish oil supplements. Its status as scientific research has, however, been called into question by a series of closely argued articles by the science journalist Ben Goldacre (www.badscience.net). There is no good reason to attribute the differences in performance to the oil, given that the compliant group was self-selected and perhaps more invested in educational achievement than the others. No attempt was made to control for placebo effects. Further no information was sought about the diets and supplement use of children who did not take the Equazen product.

In a recent press release (25 September 2008), the Head of Achievement for Durham County Council’s Children and Young People’s Services acknowledged that the study’s design did not allow any positive inference to be drawn about the effectiveness of fish oil in raising children’s achievement. Having said this, however, he pointed out that had no difference been detected between groups, Durham would have been likely to dismiss fish oils entirely. Combining this imaginary negative result with the actual but scientifically meaningless positive result enabled him then to maintain hope in the effectiveness of fish oils:

‘… taking all this into account, it is our view that this study has produced some interesting and possibly exciting issues for further investigation that could be the basis for future scientific trials …’

http://www.durham.gov.uk/durhamcc/pressrel.nsf/Web+Releases/9B151A656B3FD9AB802574CF002D51F1?OpenDocument

Even though they fly in the face of scientific reasoning about effectiveness, I would suggest that these manoeuvres allowed him to maintain something of value – the possibility of a strategic alliance between Durham Children and Young People’s services, Equazen, and aspirational service users designed to meet policy objectives.

Whether this trial was good or bad science and whether fish oils really can raise performance is not the central issue that concerns me here. Instead it sheds light on trends in relationships between education service providers and commercial operations.

The Durham trial and its aftermath suggest that the current education policy environment has generated a new ’strategic imaginary’ amongst key stakeholders such as Heads of Achievement for local authority young people’s services division, Academy leadership, and sales and marketing agents in pharmaceutical and IT companies. I describe the ‘imaginary’ as ’strategic’ because it is closely aligned with the delivery of ECM and Children’s Plan objectives, and is concerned with actively seeking, choosing and organising promising materials and opportunities from whatever sources become available to deliver those objectives. I describe it as an ‘imaginary’ because it is knitted together with possibility and hope. I would emphasise that this is an observation not a critique.

References

Horne, B. (2008) Brain sciences, addiction and drugs. London, Academy of Medical Sciences

Children’s Plan http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/publications/childrensplan/downloads/The_Childrens_Plan.pdf

Every Child Matters

http://www.everychildmatters.gov.uk/

Flower, R. (2004) Lifestyle drugs: Pharmacology and the social agenda. Trends in Pharmacological Sciences, 25 (4), pp.182-185

Jones, R., Morris, K. and Nutt, D. (2007). Cognition enhancers. In: Nutt, D., Robbins, T., Stimson, G., Ince, M. and Jackson, A. (2007). Drugs and the future: brain science, addiction and society. London, Elsevier.

Laming, L. (2003) The Victoria Climbié Inquiry: Report of an Inquiry. www.victoria-climbie-inquiry.org.uk/finreport/finreport.htm

Leadbeater, C. (2004) Personalisation through participation: a new script for public services. London, Demos

Martin, P., Brown, N. and Turner, A. (2008) Capitalizing hope: the commercial development of umbilical cord blood stem cell banking. New Genetics and Society, 27 (2), pp.127-143

Møldrup C., Traulsen, J.M. and Almarsdóttir, A.B. (2003) Medically-enhanced normality: an alternative perspective on the use of medicines for non-medical purposes. International Journal of Pharmacy Practice, 11 (4), pp.243-249

Moynihan, R. (2003) Who pays for the pizza? Redefining the relationships between doctors and drug companies. British Medical Journal, 326, pp.1193-1196

Office of Science and Technology (2005) Drugs Futures 2025. London, HMSO

Pollock, A.M., Price, D., Viebrock, E., Miller, E. and Watt, G. (2007) The market in primary care. British Medical Journal, 335, pp.475-477

Taylor, M. (2008) Behaviour Battles. Ethos. Edition 6. www.ethosjournal.com

Turner, D.C. and Sahakian, B.J. (2006) Neuroethics of cognitive enhancement. Biosocieties, 1 (1), pp.113-123

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

We shall consider providers of educational media, teaching, courses, institutions, territories, assessment and accreditation.

Schools

The UK’s three online schools opened in 2005 and collectively have approximately 200 full time students. The schools group learners into classes of up to 15 and use visual presentation tools alongside ‘Synchronous computer-mediated communication’ (SCMC), that is, voice and text based communication that works at the group and 1:1 levels. All schools report a steady increase in demand. Online schools are now also seen in, for example, the US and Canada.

Home schooling is increasing in the UK and the US. In the UK, an estimated 16,000 children are now educated at home, a three-fold increase since 1999; various studies suggest that home schooling is growing at 10-18% per year. In the US, growth is estimated to be 400% in ten years. Increased availability of digital learning resources and dissatisfaction with mainstream education provision are plausible drivers of this growth.

A further relevant trend is the rise of schools governed totally or partially by non Local Authority actors including parent groups, companies, Universities, and third sector organisations such as the RSA.

Universities

‘Corporate Universities’ are a growing phenomenon in the US. In practice they range from training departments to degree-granting branches of major companies, and in 2001 they were estimated to number 2000 in the US, up from 400 in 2003. Among the most famous are those of Boeing, Motorola and Walt Disney; Apple University is due to launch in California in 2009. Corporate Universities tend to be well-resourced, media-rich environments and as such could be potentially interesting sites of emerging next practice.

Corporate accreditation has arrived in the UK, with McDonalds, Network Rail and Flybe being the first companies to be given accreditation powers by the QCA. This could be said to reflect a growing disconnect between what is learnt in formal education and the skills required by major companies.

While Universities and Higher Education institutions have long been making use of ICT to offer distance learning opportunities, entirely virtual Universities are a new phenomenon. Among them are the US Army’s Virtual University (eARMYU), Duke Fuqua School of Business, Canadian Virtual University, Virtual University of Pakistan, Jones International University, the Open University of Catalonia, and the Virtual University of Applied Sciences in Germany.

Some campus-based universities are now offering ‘traditional’ courses alongside ‘reduced seat-time’ courses and fully online courses, reducing institutions’ bricks and mortar needs per student and thereby potentially expanding capacity (Bonk, 2005).

Professional training organisations are also employing a greater blend of face-to-face and distance learning. For example, “military training for captains in the National Guard now employ blended learning with combinations of asynchronous exercises for perhaps a year, synchronous tactical manoeuvre training for another 4-6 months, and face-to-face training at Fort Knox for a couple of intensive weeks.”

Open learning content

Web 2.0 enables platforms that broaden opportunities to participate actively in content creation and editing. Some consumers have become producers whose work can in turn be accessed by far larger audiences than was previously possible. Some examples of resulting forms of education provision are as follows.

The Connexions Project from Rice University enables volunteers to contribute courseware for the formal learning of any subject at any level. Users can reproduce and modify the content, or contact the creator with editorial suggestions. Creators can make ongoing amendments directly and instantly. Both administrators and users can assemble personalised compilations of Connexions material into bound collections printed on demand. The project is funded by Hewlett Packard and the Hewlett Foundation, and claims to have nearly one million unique visitors a month.

Curriki is a US website to which any US teacher can submit content for the K-12 Curriculum. Successful contributors are paid $500 – $1500 and their content is put online for free use by other teachers. Curriki is run by the GELC, a non-profit company founded by Sun Microsystems and funded by Nortel, a major infrastructure company, and has 46,000 registered users.

Wikipedia is an open-source encyclopaedia that “anyone can edit.” It has a number of relevant elements which can all be contributed to and edited by users, including: Wikibooks (a free library of educational textbooks), Wikiversity (educational and research materials and activities), Wikispecies (a directory of species data on known life forms) and Wikimedia Commons (a repository of images, sounds, videos and general media, containing over three million files). English-language Wikipedia is consistently ranked among the top ten most visited websites in the world. It is owned by the charity Wikipedia Foundation and grant-funded. The German-language Wikipedia has state funding. Other wiki encyclopaedia projects have recently launched, including Citizendium and Knols.

Finally, MIT Open Courseware provides free learning resources for all MIT courses online. Unlike the other examples, only MIT staff can contribute content, and users cannot amend the content. The project costs MIT US$4million a year to run, but attracts 25 million visitors annually whose feedback confirms to MIT the value of its ongoing investment.

Open learning content providers such as these support new types of relationships between the consumers and producers of educational media. Social software supports new types of communication and exchange between learners, teachers and peers.

Social software

“Each day, consumers upload 100,000 videos, watch more than 200m video clips and view more than 1.3bn web pages at social networking sites.”

Web 2.0 collaboration and many-to-many communication tools are used for learning in a variety of ways. Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services such as Skype offer synchronous voice, text and video communication between individuals and groups, mostly free of charge. VoIP is used for language learning, media sharing, and communication among students, teachers and their contacts. Skype uses excessive bandwidth and for this reason at least one University has attempted to ban it, but relented following protests from students and faculty. However, tensions between institution and technology, and the debate around Skype, persist on many campuses.

Blogs are widely used for peer learning on informal and informal subjects. Some interesting examples are stackoverflow.com, a highly active Q&A site for the web developer community. People who are stuck post their questions to the ‘crowd’ – and helpful answers usually return. As all members of the crowd get stuck at some point and can only be helped by other crowd members, mutual need and reciprocity sustain active engagement. Ask.metafilter.com is a popular Q&A site of unbounded subject matter; the knowledge exchanged ranges in topic from pure mathematics to parenting, spirituality and car ice scrapers.

Alongside these demand-led peer learning sites where activity starts with a question are supply-led peer learning sites where activity starts with an answer, often offered in video form. Sites with a specific learning angle include 5min.com and videojug.com, which offer short, free ‘how to’ videos on a range of subjects. Youtube has very broad user-generated video content that contains some items with learning value, such as a rap about physics that has been viewed 3.7 million times and lessons in playing the Mbira thumb piano.

While the broad trend is for content to be free, some pay-per-download sites thrive. Peepcode.com is a video tutorial site that is highly valued by developers working with the programming language Ruby on Rails. Tutorials made by a closed group of experts are downloaded for $9 each. These packets of knowledge – produced swiftly in response to a rapidly developing subject such as a new programming language, and accessed by the learner in response to a real-time learning need – present interesting examples of new digital provision of professional learning support which will be further explored in part two.

Two new sites connecting people who wish to learn with people who wish to teach have launched this year. The School of Life enables informal adult learners to contact experts on the database to arrange “an hour of chat in exchange for a fee.” The School of Everything is a matchmaking site for self-defined learners and teachers of unbounded subject matter, who arrange face-to-face meetings. The site is used to support life-long learning, informal learning, private tuition, and home schooling. Some learners use the site to self-organise into classes and share a teacher, and school teachers in other countries have used the site to find experts to invite into school. Membership is growing at 50% a month.

Other social software tools worth attention include collaborative design tools where users post ideas for the crowd to develop – for example, crowdspring.com. Google’s collaboration tools include shared documents, calendars and blogs. These make it easier for communities of learners, be they formal or informal, local or distributed, to work together. Some institutions – for example the six Bloomsbury Institutions within the University of London – are developing their use of Google’s free collaboration tools for teaching, learning, administration and research.

Finally, in the space between social software and institutional software is the rise in the provision of open source and free learning platforms. At the forefront is Moodle, recently identified as the most popular VLE in UK secondary schools. While Moodle is free, adaptable and developed by its users, other learning platform providers have gone further in enabling users to put together their own learning platforms. Unsurprisingly, there is “a fierce debate between proprietary suppliers and open-source supporters.”

ebooks

There is current trend towards personalised, ‘cut and paste’ arrangements of knowledge in discreet units, regularly updated and printed on demand. Some publishers are moving towards a new form of provision, away from printing ‘books’ and towards producing ‘playlists’ of short discrete topics. O’Reilly is one of the biggest publishers of computer books. It sells topic-specific PDF documents, usually of fewer than 100 pages, and custom books made by splicing in chapters and topics from the whole library. The modular format enables O’Reilly to publish new material before there is sufficient content for a book if demand is there.

CourseSmart is a year-old service owned by five publishers. It allows students to subscribe to a textbook and read it online, with the option of highlighting and printing out portions of it at a time.  The Connexions Project’s user-compiled print-on-demand collections have already been mentioned. Content formed in this way challenges traditional publishing in both agility and price. Introduction to Economic Analysis is on reading lists at Harvard University and has a market value of around $200. Its author put it online for free download in word or PDF, and two print-on-demand companies sell bound copies for $11 – $60.

Devices

The range of devices through which people digitally access learning experiences continues to grow. Professional training organisations are providing multimedia learning content for iPods; developers have created interactive physics simulation games that school children play on phones; in November 2007 Amazon launched its Kindle electronic ebook reader, and the Japanese market for mobile phone ebooks is now worth US$83m. Personal computers continue to get smaller, lighter and more powerful, while the trend towards single devices that perform a variety of functions remains strong.

Learning in virtual worlds

In 1992, science fiction writer Neal Stephenson coined the term ‘metaverse’ to describe an immersive 3D virtual environment “in which everything from business to entertainment could be engaged in by any user, anywhere in the world, with access to a terminal.”

Sixteen years later a number of 3D ‘metaverse’ territories exist, and the most popular, Second Life, has 15 million registered members. Learning sites within Second Life now include:

• The Virtual University of Edinburgh
• ‘Second Health,’ Imperial College’s Hospital Polyclinic
• A Sexual Health SIM in Second Life from the University of Plymouth
• Harvard Law School’s Austin Hall
• Ohio University’s Second Life Campus.

Universities are using virtual worlds to provide distance learning, and learning with simulation. Students at Harvard Law School practice in virtual courtrooms, a US graduate student researched and ‘defended’ his thesis in Second Life, and some scientists are working within Second Life to create and observe 3D models and simulations. 3D virtual environments are also being used by professional training providers, particularly for the military.

Teen Second Life (TSL), a separate site for 13-17 year olds with carefully policed access, hosts a growing number of youth education projects. Global Kids, a New York-based non-profit company, was the first mover at the invitation of Linden Lab (creators of Second Life). They provide summer camps on global issues in TSL, and director Joseph Barry describes learning in Second Life as “on the cutting edges of progressive pedagogy.”

Like ‘first life’, Second Life plays host to a wide variety of education providers, from the anytime-access weather visualisation simulations from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Authority, to identikit representations