This paper was commissioned as part of a series of reviews for the Working and Employment Challenge of the Beyond Current Horizons project on the future of education.  The reviews all focus on particular issues relating to work and employment.  This paper provides a series of ‘quick reviews’

The six topics are:

1. The importance of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
2. Children’s work
3. Entrepreneurial activity and practices
4. Innovation and intellectual property rights
5. Emerging economies in virtual worlds
6. Possible negative effects of technological developments

For each topic any relevant and necessary definitions of key terms are set out alongside an overview of the importance and relevance of each topic to the UK economy and society. This is then followed by some contextual information regarding each topic. Appropriate recent statistics are given where possible. The main issues and areas of concern for each topic are discussed. Finally, for each topic, possible future directions and outcomes are presented.

Keywords: science, technology, engineering, maths, children, innovation, economics
1.       The importance of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)

1.1      Skills and qualifications STEM

It is well acknowledged that Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) skills and work are important in all societies and economies. According to the Council for Industry and Higher Education (CIHE), the UK’s capabilities in STEM underpin the economy. The importance of STEM skills is likely to grow in the future in response to technological enhancements, the need for action related to environmental concerns, and as the UK’s knowledge economy expands. There are a number of concerns related to the future supply of people with STEM skills as well as the quality of these skills. Such concerns need to be addressed so that there will be sufficient, high quality STEM skills available in the labour market in the future to meet society’s needs and to maintain the UK’s position as a leading economy.

As the UK continues to develop as a knowledge economy, STEM education and employment opportunities are important issues to consider. The CIHE report, International Competitiveness and the Role of Universities, highlighted the relatively high proportion of employees in knowledge intensive service businesses that have science and engineering degrees (24%) STEM skills enhance people’s ability to generate new knowledge and to identify, adapt and use knowledge that is generated elsewhere and apply it for the benefit of businesses. It is not only the sectors that have been traditionally associated with “science” skills that rely upon the benefits of employing people with STEM skills. The Roberts Review (HM Treasury, 2002) highlighted the importance of having people qualified in STEM subjects for the UK economy as a key element for the R&D, innovation, education triangle.

STEM skills are particularly important in high added value sectors. The UK software development industry, for example, employs 1 million people and produces an annual GVA of £30bn (BCS, 2006). Software development is one sector where the importance of STEM skills is obvious. However, STEM skills are relevant in most, if not all, industries. As discussed below, STEM graduates work in various sectors.

1.2      Supply and quality of STEM skills

According to the Roberts Review (HM Treasury, 2002) and similar reviews, the most important issue related to STEM in the UK is the supply of STEM skills and the quality of these skills. A strong supply of individuals with qualifications in STEM subjects is necessary to realise Government’s ambitions for the UK. In guaranteeing this supply, all parts of the education system have a role to play – from the Key Stages of compulsory education, through to post-16/further and higher education. Various assessments suggest that the future supply of STEM graduates/postgraduates may fall short of demand, not only in the UK but also in the US and other world-leading economies. Various explanations for the problems related to the supply of graduates and postgraduates include:

• The number of students studying STEM subjects at lower levels of education greatly influences participation later on. Only 7% of pupils study triple science at GCSE[1], which restricts the likely number of students who will be interested in (or capable of) pursuing further studies in such areas
• STEM subject degree programmes are seen as harder to get into than many of the alternatives. Many require maths A-level, which is under pressure in uptake at secondary level with too few students in the opinion of many
• STEM department closures resulting from declining student interest makes studying such subjects even more unattractive
• Universities promoting STEM subjects less vigorously than others (in part due to higher costs such as expensive labs)
• High rates of growth in the number studying medicine – attracting higher quality applicants who would otherwise go for other STEM subjects.

1.2.1   STEM at compulsory education level

One of the sources of the decline in the number of STEM students is simply lack of interest of young people, at school level, in studying such subjects and working in related careers. Given school students’ lack of interest and therefore decreasing numbers of students undertaking study in STEM subjects at A-level, the number of suitably qualified STEM teachers is also a concern. With fewer teachers specialising in and teaching STEM subjects, there is further risk of less interest by students at school level. Furthermore, there is evidence that suggests that teachers are not interested in teaching these subjects and there is concern that teachers are not suitably qualified in STEM subjects to effectively teach the subject and to create interest in the subject areas amongst students.

According to CIHE, finding qualified teachers to teach STEM subjects is vital. The quantity and quality of STEM teachers will have impacts not only on the supply of future STEM graduates but also on the quality of these students’ skills. The Science and Innovation Framework 2004-2014 (HMT/DTI/DfES, 2004) suggests that a range of measures is necessary in order to enhance the teaching and learning of STEM subjects and to enhance the recruitment and retention of science teachers and researchers, in order to encourage more students to follow such course of study, and to thereby support the future needs of the science base and the economy for people qualified in such areas.

The Government is attempting to increase the number and quality of teachers in order to increase the number of young people choosing STEM subjects and subsequently follow a STEM-related career path.  All this is seen as helping the UK compete in the global economy. With the aim of achieving this, a £140 million strategy to educate the next generation of scientists and mathematicians and help recruit and train more science and maths teachers was announced in January 2008.[2]

1.2.2   STEM in Post-16, Higher and Further Education

The future supply of people with STEM qualifications will be determined mainly by the number of students who study such subjects after compulsory education. Of particular importance are the numbers educated to degree level and above. A great concern in the UK today is the relatively low uptake of STEM subjects at university.

There was an increase of 10% in the total number of university applications between 2002/3 and 2006/7. Over the same period, STEM applications increased by 12%.  However, the balance of students studying particular STEM subjects is also a concern. There are concerns about the mix of STEM graduates being produced, with worries that there is insufficient emphasis on core science and engineering subjects.  There was a fall of 15% in the numbers of engineering and technology graduates (23,300 to 19,700) over the decade to 2008.[3]

The number of undergraduate students who were studying physical science (Physics and Chemistry) as a proportion of all undergraduates fell from 5.5% in 1996 to 4.1% in 2000. The share studying engineering and technology fell from 9.3% to 6.3% from 1996 to 2000. However there has been encouraging increases in the numbers of applicants to STEM programmes more recently. The share of all university applications that were for maths places rose by 10% between 2006 and 2007. This share increased by 8% for mechanical engineering, 11% for chemistry and 12% for physics. There is concern though that these increases will not be sustained and that they may represent only temporary increases that will do little to guarantee a future supply of qualified STEM people.

According to NESTA, the total number of STEM graduates has increased by 10% since 1995. However, these graduates have been unevenly distributed across the STEM subjects. The number of graduates fell in engineering and technology and in the physical sciences while numbers increased in biological sciences, computer science and mathematical science.

The number of STEM graduates (excluding psychology and sports science graduates) at UK higher education institutions increased by 5% from 2002/3 to 2006/7.  The number of postdoctoral graduates increased by 18% over the same period. While the UK has a relatively large number of students studying STEM subjects, it has been argued that this is due to increases in those studying IT and biological sciences rather than mathematics, engineering, and the physical sciences. This is a source of concern. The DTI (2006) have highlighted the rapid growth in supply numbers, which have increased at a rate slightly higher than the average for all subjects. However, the DTI report notes that recent increases have been concentrated in computer sciences and subjects related to medicine and biological science, rather than in engineering and technology, physical sciences and architecture.

Beyond compulsory education and A-levels, a diminished interest in studying STEM subjects is shown by students. The Sainsbury Report (HM Treasury, 2001) referred to low numbers of students taking science subjects following compulsory education. There have been marked decreases in the numbers of applications to STEM-related post-secondary programmes. According to the British Computing Society (BCS, 2006), there was a 50% drop in the number of applications for computer science related courses between 2001 and 2006. Problems experienced by university STEM departments, in terms of student numbers, are worst in physical and chemical sciences, engineering and maths. Biological science departments have tended to experience less difficulty on the whole but within biological sciences numbers are uneven.

CIHE has argued that in all employment sectors where STEM graduates are at a premium, there are shortages of quality graduates and postgraduates with relevant IT and general STEM skills and experiences. Since 2002, the numbers of STEM graduates, excluding Engineering graduates, has increased significantly; however, the number of these students taking STEM A-levels has declined with noticeable drops in the numbers studying mathematics, computer sciences and physics. This will have implications for the numbers of graduates to come in these subject areas.

Another significant issue related to STEM at higher levels is the gender balance of those who study such subjects. This issue has been acknowledged as a problem at all levels for a significant period. Female participation levels are much lower in some fields than in others. In 2005[4], 15% of engineering and technology students were female. In the same year, females accounted for 24% of students in computer science, 38% studying maths, 41% in physical science and 64% studying biological sciences. There have been a range of initiatives launched to tackle this imbalance, with a great deal of work being put in by such groups as the UK Resource Centre for Women in Science, Engineering and Technology and Women into Science, Engineering and Construction (WISE). A number of websites have also been created to stimulate girls’ interest in STEM subjects and to provide valuable information.[5] However, CIHE points out that these figures have remained relatively stable over a number of years, perhaps indicating that the initiatives and policies aimed at improving female participation in STEM subjects should be reconsidered.

A shortage of graduates with numerical abilities is considered to be critical by CIHE business leaders (CIHE, 2009). This shortage will only worsen in the light of the current age profile of their workforce. UK businesses and the UK in general are vulnerable to competition from other countries due to such shortages. There is also a fear that businesses and universities rely too heavily on overseas expertise rather than growing UK-based expertise. There are skill shortages across a range of STEM disciplines and in particular specialisms (such as electrical and power systems engineering, pharmacologists with particular experience). CIHE also highlights the need to address the gender balance of people in STEM.

However, it is not all bad news. The annual report, Education at a Glance 2008 (OECD, 2008) indicates that the UK is doing better than average in supplying STEM graduates to the workforce. Amongst the OECD countries, the UK ranks 7^th in terms of its supply of STEM graduates – ahead of Germany (11^th), Italy (12^th), USA (15^th) and Spain (17^th) and better than the EU and OECD averages. DfES (2006) also concludes that the UK’s stock of science and engineering graduates fares well internationally, and that the quality of STEM graduates, as indicated by prior qualifications of entrants, is rising. It is important to note that without ensuring that a sufficient supply of STEM graduates is in the pipeline, the UK’s relative performance on this will not improve, and may indeed slip as other countries improve.

In 2007, just under 1 million people in the working age population in the UK had STEM qualifications at NQF level 5 and just over 2½ million had STEM qualifications at NQF level 4. Of such graduates and postgraduates, the vast majority were economically active and in employment, with only very small numbers unemployed. This reflects the patterns for those qualified in other subjects as well. A much greater percentage of people with qualifications lower than NQF level 4 are found to be economically inactive and/or unemployed. Qualifications in STEM subjects are associated with marginally greater likelihood of being economically active and in employment than is found for graduates in other disciplines, but the differences are small.

In A Degree of Concern (2006) and A Higher Degree of Concern (2008), the Royal Society provides a statistical review of trends relating to the supply of graduates with STEM qualifications. They highlight the importance of the Higher Education system in relation to the UK’s economic performance, particularly in the context of an increasingly competitive and inter-connected global economy. The UK’s HE system needs to equip students with the knowledge, skills and aptitudes to compete with the best in the world, while at the same time supporting much of the nation’s R&D activity.  The Royal Society reports recognise that the demand for and supply of STEM graduates are closely linked and that there is a need to encourage virtuous circles, where supply encourages demand and demand stimulates supply. Links between industry and universities are also a key area where more emphasis is needed to enhance collaboration and strengthen ties.

1.3      STEM Employment and Recruitment

With the exception of medicine, STEM graduates go on to work in a wide variety of industries. STEM graduates and postgraduates hold just over 3 in 10 jobs across all sectors, but this ranges from over 5 in 10 in non-marketed services (including education, health and public administration and defence), to not much more than 1 in 10 for the Construction sector.

The shares of firms that employ STEM graduates are significant across most sectors. Overall, 92% of all UK firms employ people with qualifications in STEM subjects. This varies amongst sectors with the share of firms employing STEM people varying from 89% of energy and water companies, 59% of construction firms, and 48% of manufacturers. Employers in the finance and insurance and professional services sectors also have relatively high demand for STEM skills. Highly numerate, analytical and problem-solving skills are particularly valuable in such sectors. About 61% of professional service companies and 94% of banking firms employ STEM-skilled people. Large numbers of STEM graduates have been drawn to the financial services sector owing to relatively high salaries paid out by companies in this sector for the top talent.

STEM skills play an important role in business and they are vital for research and development and innovation activity. Some 40% of employers across all sectors indicated that they require STEM skilled people to design and innovate new products and services. Value is also place on STEM skills in sales and marketing, as well as general management roles. STEM graduates are far from limited in their career options and studying such subjects does not close doors on their future prospects.

The CBI/Edexcel Education and Skills Survey 2008 indicated gaps in the workplace, with 59% of employers reporting difficulty recruiting STEM-skilled individuals. Some sectors reported suffering acute shortages. Experienced hires, graduates and technicians are shown to be in particularly short supply. In response to these recruitment difficulties, large firms in particular have been looking outside the UK for candidates with STEM skills. Of the large employers in the survey, 36% have looked to India and 24% to China in order to fulfil their STEM-skilled labour needs.

With firms recruiting STEM graduates from Asia there is a concern about the quality of these graduates’ qualifications. According to CBI/Edexcel there is concern over the “loose definition of ‘graduate’ in China” and differences in language, communication skills and problem solving styles may be key barriers to getting the most out of recruiting from abroad. However, as universities in China and India develop their courses and improve the quality of their graduates, the UK recruitment of STEM-skilled candidates from these countries is likely to increase.

The quality of STEM graduates is not only a concern about those coming from abroad but is also a significant issue related to UK graduates. It is not only shortages in supply that cause recruitment difficulties for employers. There is a perception held by many employers (42% in the CBI/Edexcel survey) that those graduates that do apply for jobs do not have the right skills. This is not thought to be as great an issue for employers in the financial services sector as it is for other sectors, as finance employers tend to offer high salaries to attract the top talent.  The HE system needs to ensure not only that there are sufficient numbers of STEM graduates to meet demand but also that the quality of these graduates is world-class. As the Royal Society (2006, 2008) has pointed out, the UK’s HE system needs to equip students with the knowledge, skills and aptitudes to compete with the best in the world, while at the same time supporting much of the nation’s R&D activity.

1.4      STEM-related policies, programmes and initiatives

A number of Government policies and initiatives have been introduced over the past decade to address the possibility of a future shortage of STEM skills in the UK labour force. The Annual Innovation Report 2008 (DIUS) has set out HEFCE’s commitment of £160 million to increase the demand for and supply of students studying strategic and vulnerable subjects. The majority of these funds is to be spent on STEM subjects. Very recently, the University of Birmingham has recently received £20 million to help fill the national skills shortage gap in science, technology and maths by hosting the National Higher Education STEM programme[6]. The programme is funded by HEFCE, with the aim of increasing the number of graduates with skills in STEM disciplines, in order to meet the needs of employers and to boost the UK economy.  It will aim to raise the aspirations of young people to entice them to study science at university level. The programme will develop innovative and transferable programmes and initiatives for expanding participation in STEM subjects in HE. The delivery phase of the programme is the three years from 2009 to 2012.

As discussed in Section 1.2 various groups and programmes have also been implemented to attempt to stimulate female interest in STEM and to address the gender imbalance that has been observed in these subjects for many years.

1.5      Future issues

The value of STEM skills in the UK economy is undeniable. Innovation is considered to be one of the key drivers of productivity and economic performance and STEM skills are thought by many to be key in enabling innovation activity. The innovation gap between the EU and the US is in part (23%) attributed to the lower share of people with tertiary education in Europe’s workforce.[7] The UK has set a target for R&D investment to reach 2.5% of GDP by 2014[8]. Meeting this target would require around 50,000 additional research staff. There is a danger that unless the number of graduates qualified in STEM subjects increases, this innovation gap will widen.

It is considered essential that the UK gets the supply of STEM skills right, otherwise the damage to the economy could be substantial.[9] According to NIESR, the UK lagging in terms of skills levels of engineers and scientists impacts negatively on the innovative activity associated with such skills. This translates further into a loss of competitiveness in terms of a loss of domestic market share, a loss of international trade share and lower levels of productivity (Mason and Wagner, 2002).

A number of developing and emerging economies, such as India and China, are adding to the level of international competition faced by the UK. In order to keep pace with the activities in such countries, the UK must increase its skill base. Globalisation, demographic change and the rapid pace of advancement in technologies exert pressure on the UK that requires immediate action in terms of ensuring the country has the capacity, including the skills base, to compete, and to avoid being left behind.

Demand for STEM skills is expected to rise. Based on Working Futures 2004-2014 (Wilson et al, 2006), CBI (2008) suggest that by 2014, 730,000 extra jobs will require candidates with STEM skills. Growth in employment is projected to be fastest for those with the highest level qualifications. The number of those in employment with no or few formal qualifications is projected to decline. The Working Futures 2004-2014 results generally suggest, with the exception of Medicine, that the “demand” for those qualified in most STEM subjects will grow significantly faster than the average for all subject groups.[10]

The age profile of the STEM workforce implies that there will be a significant need to replace those leaving the STEM workforce (as older workers reach retirement age in the coming decade). This replacement demand is at least equally important as so called expansion demands arising from projected increases in employment levels for such workers.

CIHE (2009) business leaders have identified a number of concerns relating to STEM. The leaders and managers of the future must be numerate. The UK is considered vulnerable as a nation due to over-reliance of businesses and university departments on STEM expertise from overseas. There are skill shortages across the range of STEM disciplines, as well as in particular specialisms (from electrical and power systems engineers to pharmacologists with in vivo animal experience). There is a particular need to persuade more girls to study STEM subjects. Businesses have been recruiting maths graduates from India and other Asian nations.

According to NESTA (2007), the UK’s R&D expenditure lags behind international competitors, STEM graduates are increasing but demand is likely to outstrip supply and links between businesses and universities are still challenged by university funding streams and cultural differences. Science policy needs to become more prominent, but more importantly it needs to become more sophisticated (NESTA, 2007).

Possible futures

Worst case scenario

• The supply and quality of STEM graduates and postgraduates in the UK declines further
• Initiatives to improve situation do not work
• UK slips as one of world leaders in STEM graduate supply
• The innovation gap with other countries widen
• STEM related employment goes offshore, especially as STEM graduates in other countries (India, China, EU) improve, and as there is a huge supply
• Jobs that cannot be offshored that require STEM skills are awarded to foreign graduates/STEM-skilled employees
• The UK’s R&D base declines
• The UK’s universities slip down international rankings because of the relatively poor quality of scientific research and output in terms of STEM studies.

Best case scenario

• More students gain interest in STEM subjects
• Supply issues are appropriately addressed
• Expansion of employment for those with STEM skills due to continuing trends towards innovation and green jobs
• The UK becomes a world leader in STEM skills – world leader in R&D – world leader in innovation
• More use of UK universities for international projects relevant to STEM.

Most probable scenario

• number of jobs requiring STEM skills to expand due to continuation of recent trend
• financial services continue to attract STEM graduates but no longer promising sky-high salaries after the recent financial crisis
• some STEM supply issues are addressed
• industry facelift to attract more students to STEM subjects
• use of international STEM qualifications.

2.      Children’s work

The majority of research on children’s work and child labour focuses on the negative side of this issue. There is much commentary concerned with the inappropriateness of child labour and how child labour often arises in response to impoverished living conditions.

In the UK context however, ‘children’s work’ does not typically refer to the sinister exploitation of children but instead refers to children’s willing participation in part-time or vacation time employment. That is not to say that exploitive child labour does not take place in this country nor that children who willingly work are not exploited in some cases, but it is not the large problem here that it is in developing countries, or in the UK in the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries.

Child labour and youth employment are two very different things. While child labour has very definite negative connotations, youth employment is typically viewed as a positive experience for children while growing up. In UNICEF publications, ‘child labour’ conventionally refers to children working before they reach the minimum ages for employment in their country (16 in the UK). It has been redefined to refer to all young people engaged in harmful employment, whether they are school-age or older.

Youth employment, in contrast, is considered a more positive activity in which young people are consensually employed in jobs that adhere to particular laws and regulations and pose no danger or risk to the health and safety of the young person. However, even when employed in more acceptable forms of work, the employment situations of many young people and children do not always abide by all regulations.

2.1      ‘Acceptable’ children’s work

In the UK, many young people (under the age of 18 or 16) are engaged in various types of employment outside of their normal schooling. Survey research has consistently shown that between one-third and one-half of school age children are in paid employment at any given time. Before they leave school, between two-thirds and three-quarters of children will have held a paid job (Mizen et al, 1999). Pinpointing the actual numbers of children in paid employment in the UK however, is not straightforward due to large discrepancies in the definitions of what constitutes legal child labour and because of the degree of unseen child work. Hobbs and McKechnie (1997) reviewed various estimates of the numbers of children undertaking paid work in Britain. Their findings are summarised in Table 1

Table 1: Best estimates of children working in the UK

Source: Hobbs, S. and J. McKechnie (1997) Child Employment in Britain: A Social and Psychological Analysis. Table 2.4, p33.

There is evidence that employment of children (or youth), especially school students, is on the rise in the UK and the USA. Between 1968 and 1991 there was a marked increase in the rates of part-time working amongst 16 to 18 year olds in full time education in the US (Dustman et al 1996) according to data from the Family Expenditure Survey. In the Republic of Ireland in 1994, one-quarter of lower secondary students and 31% of upper secondary students were engaged in regular part-time work. The types of jobs performed vary from part-time work in shops and restaurants, to paper rounds, to babysitting. Jobs undertaken by children often comprise unskilled, manual work with unusual working arrangements which may leave children vulnerable to exploitation.

Regulations and legislation regarding children’s work in the UK

UK law specifies the types of work and conditions under which children or youths may be legally employed. Employers wishing to employ children under school leaving age must get a permit from the local authority. This permit must be signed by the employer and one parent of the child. Some of the key features of children and employment regulations in England and Wales are:

• Types of work – no one under the minimum school leaving age (16 years) is permitted to do anything more than light work. They are not allowed to do work that is likely to cause harm to the child or to do work that will affect attendance at school or participation in work experience. Children are prohibited from working in factories, construction, transport, mines and on registered merchant ships. Local authorities may impose further restrictions on the types of work children are permitted to perform.
• Younger children – children under the age of 13 can only work under special circumstances. Once aged 13 years, children can undertake light work. At age 16 years, a person will be classed as a young worker with different rules.
• Hours – For those children who are legally permitted to work, they are not allowed to work:
  • during school hours on any school day
  • for more than 2 hours on any school day or for more than 12 hours in any week in which required to attend school
  • for more than 2 hours on a Sunday
  • for more than 8 hours (5 if under 15) on any day which is not a school day or a Sunday
  • before 7am or after 7pm
  • for more than 35 hours (25 if under 15) in any week in which not required to attend school
  • for more than 4 hours in any day without a break of one hour.
  • The law does not make any prescription about the wages to be paid to children who work. Minimum wage legislation does not apply to workers under the age of 16.

Children’s reasons for working and possible benefits and negative effects

The motivations of children for undertaking work vary. Children are not necessarily driven to employment by poverty, although this is the reason in some cases. In the context of youth employment, children have jobs for a number of reasons that are more matters of choice than circumstance. In some cases, the work may be in an area that interests the child or they may undertake work in order to have a learning experience. Many children take jobs because of the extra money that they can earn to spend on leisure interests. A number of children who have jobs report that they enjoy their work and appreciate it because it gives them a sense of independence and also teaches them about the value of money.

The UNICEF Working Children Survey (Spring 2004) questioned students between the ages of 12 and 16 about their attitudes toward work and the involvement in employment. They found a number of children who indicated that they worked outside the hours permitted by law and a number worked longer hours than allowed. More than 40% of the young people surveyed indicated that their parents had helped them find their job. The majority of students questioned felt that work was valuable both socially and financially. Some respondents indicated that working did add pressure to them for performance at school. For young people, over the age of 18, Mizen et al (1999) found that students are not interested in full-time work or in acquiring long-term or secure employment due to the constraints of University coursework.

In the US, it has been generally accepted for the past 30 years or so that youth employment is a standard feature of adolescent development (Mortimer and Finch 1996). There seems to be a consensus in the US that moderate levels of work, in relatively benign jobs, is beneficial for children through increasing self-reliance and independence (Mizen et al 1999). Working more than 20 hours per week however, has been correlated with a range of adolescent problems. Similarly, a study from Ireland found that working part-time was associated with underperformance at upper secondary level and was also found to be associated with increased drop-out (McCoy and Smyth, 2007).  In 1999, Mizen et al noted that it was then a reliably accepted idea that “paid employment is an extensive feature of contemporary British childhood … that extends beyond the realms of traditional ‘children’s work’, into a range of jobs characteristic of the service sector more generally.”

A MORI Poll, Class Struggles, carried out for TUC[11] found that more than 100,000 school children had played truant in order to work in 2001. Boys were more likely than girls to take such actions. The survey indicated that 1 in 4 children under 13 years of age undertook paid work. Extrapolated to the entire UK population in this age group results in a total of 289,000 working. A significant proportion of the survey’s sample reported that they had worked outside legal working hours for their age group. The survey also found that most working children (31.5%) earned less than £2.50 per hour.

2.2      The more negative aspects of children’s work

Child labour is often considered a problem of only developing nations. However, UNICEF indicates that it is a problem in the industrialised world as well, with some children doing work that is hazardous or otherwise unacceptable. This is often the case for children who have been trafficked into the country. The EU Directive on the Protection of Young People at Work was established in 1994.  This aimed to reduce discrepancies regarding youth employment in the member states. The Directive sets out minimum standards for all EU countries regarding the employment of children and young people. The UK was slower than a number of other EU countries to modify its laws in accordance with this Directive.

The fact that workers under the age of 16 are not covered by minimum wage regulations, leaves children who work open to exploitation by employers looking to cut costs. Children under school leaving age are not legally entitled to paid holiday from work. As a subset of the labour force, the child workforce has little or no bargaining power or weight in the labour market. There have been 38 prosecutions in the UK for the improper employment of children since records began in 2000 (UNICEF).

Walsh (1990) observed that one main advantage to employers of hiring students is a reduction in labour costs. Employers are able to pay students (under the age of 16) lower rates than they are required to pay workers over the minimum school leaving age. Employers may also be able to use student workers more flexibly than other segments of the labour force as these students may not accrue the necessary qualifications for some legal entitlements (Curtis and Lucas, 2000). The TUC’s survey (2000) found that students were paid £4.37 per hour on average and that 3% of student workers were being paid rates below minimum wage.

The Commission on Vulnerable Employment has indicated that young workers, who are not entitled to the same rates of minimum wage as other workers are more likely to face exploitation. They also cite evidence that young people are more likely to face exploitation at work than are older workers. The MORI survey’s findings support the notion that younger workers face exploitation. 75% of children aged 11 to 15 years were reported to work and 30% of those with term time jobs reported working for more than the maximum numbers each day. Almost a third of the sample were paid £2.50 per hour or less. Nearly 20% working during term time were paid less than £2 per hour. While illegal, 25% of children under the age of 13 indicated that they worked during the term or during summer holidays.

Despite there being a number of regulations in place to protect young workers, the vast majority (79%) of children who work in the UK do so without a permit (UNICEF). There is also evidence that a proportion of these working children are exploited by the people they work for or face hazardous working situations. Taylor (1998) found that despite having initially agreed to hours of work that would not interfere with their academic studies, many working students later found themselves feeling pressured to work less convenient hours.

Children who are trafficked into the UK face even greater risks and are more prone to being exploited than those who are more visible and ‘protected’ by child employment regulations. Some trafficked children are smuggled into the country for the sole purpose of employment. For others, their vulnerable position leaves them open to being exploited in work (or worse). Some work extremely long hours in poor or dangerous conditions. Some children, most notably those from China, are bonded and must work in order to pay back their bonds. In a number of cases traffickers and employers of trafficked children threaten the safety of the child or his family in his home country in order to force the child to work. Children who have been trafficked into the country to work have been found working in restaurants, on farms and factories, in criminal activities, providing domestic labour and working in the sex industry. A UNICEF study (2003) found that 250 child trafficking cases had been uncovered in the UK since 1998.

2.3      The future of children’s work

Focusing on the more ‘acceptable’ types of children’s work (as discussed in Section 2.1), the numbers of children in such employment is likely to increase in the future if current and recent trends continue. Even greater increases may be seen as children seek their own financial independence, so they can fund ever increasing costs of leisure (e.g. video game consoles typically cost over £100 and games can cost anything from £20 to £80 each). Increasing competition for entry into post-secondary education and for employment opportunities later in life may also motivate children to undertake employment earlier in order to build up their learning and work experiences and to indicate their drives and ambitions.

As mentioned in Section 2.2, laws covering the employment of children in this country are not overly stringent and according to many are fragmented. The Better Regulation Task Force (2004) notes that the laws regarding child employment in the UK are relatively old, with piecemeal adaptations and local by-laws that often compound the problems that exist in interpreting and enforcing these laws. This leaves room for breaches of regulations to occur. In the future, either the laws regarding children and employment will be enhanced and greater enforcement of these laws exercised or children’s employment will continue to pose potential hazards and injustices for children. If unscrupulous employers see that they can cut costs by employing young people in jobs that are suitable only for adults, then children may be exploited for the monetary gains of these people. Educating children on the protection that the law offers them in work is also necessary to empower these children in employment matters.

More positively, if employers were to engage with children’s agencies, schools and government bodies, jobs could be designed that would be age-appropriate and provide good learning/work experiences for children while enhancing the performance of businesses. With the development of new technologies and the dissemination of such technologies, children may also be provided with greater opportunities to exercise their creativity and fulfil their own interests while at the same time capitalising on these things for monetary gains. One example could be that young people may work part-time, independently, to design or manage websites for other people or companies, or design or get involved in other aspects of game design and ‘virtual’ worlds (for further discussion see Section 5). Such ‘jobs’ may lead onto business opportunities or career directions for these young people in adult life.

Possible futures

Worst case scenario

• Children are forced to take on more paid work, even if they do not wish to do so for their own interests, in order to help support family
• children work in inappropriate jobs that are not of interest to them and pose dangers to their health, safety, development and welfare
• employers opt for cheap child workers in order to cut costs, particularly in the absence of tighter enforcement of child labour laws
• trafficked child workers continue to fly below the radar and are an unseen part of the labour force
• more use of child labour in foreign countries in order to cut costs of manufacturing and to provide cheap products to the UK.

Best case scenario

• employers engage with schools to create work opportunities that enhance the well-being and development of children
• children choose whether to work or not, without the stress of having to work out of financial necessity
• through work, children’s entrepreneurial skills are developed and they acquire skills that help them in later life and ultimately contribute to the country’s economic performance
• trafficking and exploitation of children in work is drastically reduced due to improved regulation and enforcement.

Most probable scenario

• reorganisation of laws relating to children’s work
• more public awareness of child trafficking and the use of these children in work which should pressure authorities to further clamp down on such activity
• the dissemination of information through the internet may result in children being more aware of their rights which would empower them in the labour market
• children may become more aware of the potential benefits of work and may seek out opportunities that meet their own interests, while giving them some financial independence.

3.      Entrepreneurial activity and practices

3.1      Importance of entrepreneurial activity in the UK

Enterprise is noted as one of the five key drivers behind productivity growth in the UK. Entrepreneurial activity takes many forms and makes a substantial contribution to the country’s economy.  Stel et al (2005) found that nascent entrepreneurship positively impacts GDP in rich countries (see also Davidsson, 2006). The Lisbon Agenda considers raising regional entrepreneurship levels to be one of the main policy instruments to tackle Europe’s problem in keeping up with productivity growth by existing and emerging economic powers.

3.2      The UK’s entrepreneurial performance

Entrepreneurship has become a common notion in today’s British popular culture.  Television programmes like the BBC’s Dragons’ Den, and other reality programmes that follow fledgling companies or show individuals competing for start-up funds, have become more common and gained huge numbers of viewers. The aim of such shows and the media coverage of entrepreneurial activity is to stimulate interest and further activity. However, sometimes this exposure can downplay the real risks and the level of skill and knowledge required to start a successful business.

According to HM Treasury (2008) report, Enterprise: Unlocking the UK’s Talent, there has been considerable progress in promoting a enterprising economy over the past 10 years. Business survival rates are higher than ten years ago (92% of new VAT registered businesses are still registered after one year and 71% after three years). Productivity growth in small firms has been greater than that in large firms since 1998.

In 2005, the number of young people indicating aspirations to start up in business was 200,000 greater than in 2002. There are currently a record number of businesses operating in the UK. There were 4.5 million businesses in the UK at the start of 2006 which was more than 750,000 more than in 1997. There are a number of reasons for the significant increase in business numbers, including:

• the rise in population
• influx of entrepreneurial immigrants
• the development and roll out of modern telecommunications, and
• tax incentives for smaller companies.

It is important to note that more businesses does not necessarily mean that the UK is more ‘entrepreneurial’, as research by the University of Sheffield found that the business start-up rate per 1,000 inhabitants fell between 1997 and 2004.[12] This research also found evidence that some private sector entrepreneurial activity is crowded out by the public sector.

While the World Bank has ranked the UK second in Europe, and in the top ten countries in the world, on measures of ease of doing business, the UK lags behind the US in some indicators. The US has 20% more businesses per head than the UK. A significant part of this gap is explained by considerably lower rates of women’s enterprise activity in the UK. The rate of growth exhibited by new businesses once they are established is also greater in the US than in the UK.  Some 40% more US businesses achieve high growth than do UK businesses. More than a third of established businesses in the UK have no ambition to grow.

The fear of failure is also greater in the UK than in the US. In the US, 23% of people say that such fear would prevent them from starting a business, while 36% of people in the UK indicate fear of failure as a barrier to staring a new business (GEM, 2007). In the early part of the current recession, start-up activity in the UK appeared to have remained resilient in the UK.[13] There was a decline in the Spring of 2008 which resulted in the numbers for the year being only marginally lower than they were in 2007. In the three months to September 2008, the number of new businesses that started up fell by just 4% to around 129,000. Barclays has reported no significant decline in the number of people wanting to start their own ventures going into 2009. Despite this resilience to date, the number of start-ups in 2009 is expected to fall significantly (Barclays).

The UK has a higher proportion of adults starting their own businesses than other European countries, and the UK’s levels of entrepreneurial activity are better than those in continental Europe. The UK also has better sustainability ratios (ratios of established businesses to start-ups) than the US and Canada. In the UK, the proportion of people operating established businesses is 93% of the start-up rate, indicating that the majority of ventures are successful.

The GEM UK 2007 indicates that there are regional differences in the levels of entrepreneurial activity taking place in the UK. In 2006, London, the South East, the South West and the East Midlands had the highest levels of early stage entrepreneurial activity in 2006 but they experienced declines in 2007. While three of these four regions remained the highest activity regions in 2007, the decline in early stage entrepreneurial activity in the East Midlands was sufficient to decrease the regions ranking to 8th place. There were increases in early entrepreneurial activity in Scotland, the North East, Northern Ireland, Yorkshire and the Humber, the North West and the West Midlands. The West Midlands had the 4^th highest level of activity in 2007.

There was an increase in entrepreneurial activity in the Northwest from 4.6 to 4.9% between 2006. This region is observed to have higher levels of entrepreneurial activity amongst 18 to 24 year olds than the UK average (4.7% vs 3.8%).

The GEM UK 2007 report also notes gender differences in early entrepreneurial activity with men more likely to be engaged in such activity than women. In 2007, this difference between the sexes was greatest in Northern Ireland. The South West had the highest level of female entrepreneurial activity in 2007 at 4.6%. Men are also found to have more positive attitudes towards entrepreneurial activity than women.

3.3      The future

According to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor United Kingdom 2007 Monitoring Report (GEM UK, 2007), the UK has generally positive attitudes towards entrepreneurial skills and the perception of start-up opportunities compared to the other G8 countries. The monitoring report compares Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) measures of entrepreneurial activity in the UK with participating G7 countries, and the large industrialised or industrialising nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). It also summarises entrepreneurial activity within Government Office Regions of the UK

The Government has done much to develop awareness, aspirations and motivations regarding enterprise. Amongst young people aged 14 to 30, there as been a 22% increase since 2003 in the number who intend to start a business and a 50% increase in the number taking part in enterprise training activities.

According to CIHE, the competitive capability of the UK will rest more than ever on enterprise and innovation in products, services and management. CIHE emphasises that developing entrepreneurial graduates is essential to future success of the UK economy.

Enterprise: Unlocking the UK’s Talent outlines some of the future challenges and opportunities that the UK may face in terms of optimising the economic and wider benefits of enterprise for the UK. The Government has a vision of a society in which the contribution of entrepreneurs and enterprise is encouraged and valued and therefore wants to encourage a culture of enterprise. The UK needs to improve some people’s perceptions, particularly with reference to the country’s relatively high ‘fear of failure’. Countries with higher rates of fear of failure tend to have lower rates of entrepreneurial activity. In developing a culture of enterprise the Government has made a number of policy proposals including actions regarding insolvency rules, starting a women’s enterprise campaign, and starting a Global Entrepreneurship Week.

In order to position itself in good stead, the UK also needs to ensure that it has sufficient enterprise knowledge and skills to meet future challenges and opportunities. The Government has committed a further £30 million to extend enterprise education from secondary schools into primary and tertiary education. The Government is also taking steps to increase workforce skills training and to improve access to business support.

The availability of finance to people who want to start up businesses is also an important factor which is proving a great challenge given the current economic downturn. At the beginning of 2009, the Business Secretary, Lord Mandelson, has pledged £35m for start-ups in North West with the ambition that “nurturing and protecting start-ups and young businesses through this downturn will lead us into the upturn that will follow”. Barclays increased the amount of lending to small and medium enterprises by 6% to about £15 billion in the past year and has pledge to make at a least a further £1.5 billion available to this group of businesses in 2009.

In the future there are many potential opportunities on which an enterprising nation may capitalise. New business opportunities will come from the development and growth in countries such as China, India and Brazil. The disposable incomes of people in these countries will grow, creating export opportunities for the UK. These new markets have already been proving fruitful. Between 2002 and 2006, UK exports to China and India increased by, on average, 19% and 14% per year, respectively.

The development of the UK as a Knowledge Economy also presents opportunities for entrepreneurial activity. New technologies and services themselves present opportunities for new businesses to develop or for established businesses to grow. New industries will also be created, such as green industries. The environmental goods and services sector in the UK has an estimated turnover of £25 billion and employs 400,000 people.[14] New technologies that will need to be developed for the low-carbon economy will present potentially lucrative opportunities for people wishing to start a business.

Possible futures

Worst case scenario

• the credit crisis and financial downturn worsen, resulting in very limited financial support being available for start-ups, young businesses and SMEs
• the UK fails in its attempts to promote a culture of enterprise and lacks the skills, knowledge and attitudes necessary to take advantage of future opportunities
• growth becomes restricted due to inadequate entrepreneurial performance.
• women’s entrepreneurial activity rates increase substantially and help to close gaps with the US
• the UK’s culture of enterprise attracts more outside investment in UK businesses and increases the number of foreign businesses being set up and operated in the UK
• young people see starting their own businesses as viable options for future careers
• UK start-ups and SMEs increase their ambitions for growth and make strategic decisions to achieve growth.

Best case scenario

Most probable scenario

• women’s involvement likely to increase
• credit and finance moderately constrained in the short to medium term
• after the financial downturn, lenders are likely to be more careful than before in lending criteria used to evaluate start-up business’ and SMEs’ applications for borrowing. This would not necessarily be a negative outcome as suitable criteria may ensure that the majority of businesses that start up are likely to succeed
• enterprise education to take more prominent role in young people’s education, thus enhancing the entrepreneurial skills and knowledge base of the future workforce.

4.      Innovation and intellectual property rights

4.1      The importance of innovation

Like enterprise, innovation is also considered one of the five key drivers of productivity. BERR defines innovation simply as the “successful exploitation of new ideas.” This includes all innovation, including non-technological. According to BERR, innovation is central to better jobs, economic growth and prosperity. Innovation is vital to increasing the UK’s competitiveness, improving the economy and increasing the quality of life. Innovation can also help to meet challenges such as climate change and pollution.

For businesses, innovation can result in sustained or improved growth, through enabling entry into new or different markets, and through improving day to day performance. Businesses may innovate through product innovation, process innovation and strategic innovation. For consumers, innovation is important in creating new or improved products and services, with greater value for money, and in improving the overall standard of living.

Innovation is an increasingly important issue, as companies who do not innovate will not maintain their competitiveness because if they themselves do not innovate than someone else will do so and will gain an advantage. Businesses may need to innovate for a number of reasons (DIUS 2008):

• to gain competitive advantage or to respond to competition
• to create efficiencies
• to improve customer satisfaction
• to reposition the business in the market, and
• to comply with new regulations.

These factors, and a number of others, motivate businesses to innovate and may also influence the level and type of innovation undertaken by businesses.

Those companies that adopt innovations created by others, or who seek to innovate themselves, face a number of potential advantages and opportunities. For innovating companies and individuals, Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) is a vital issue that comprises an important part of their business operation and strategy.

4.2      UK’s innovation performance

The UK is identified as an Innovation Leader in the 2007 edition of the European Innovation Scoreboard, placing the UK in the leading group with Japan, US and several EU countries. The 2005 UK Innovation Survey results indicated that 57% of UK enterprises were involved in innovation activity. The 2007 UK Innovation Survey showed an increase in activity to 64% of firms. Product or process innovations have been implemented by around a quarter of businesses, while around a third of enterprises have undertaken some form of strategic innovations. A positive correlation was found between firm size and innovation activity. Extending the concept of innovation activity to cover enterprises that invest in preparing for future innovation, or amending their organisational structures and strategies, results in 66% of UK businesses being considered innovators over the UK Innovation Survey 2007 survey period (2005-2007).

A much greater share of economic activity and employment was found in businesses that innovate. Almost 45% of employment was found to be in businesses having one or more forms of strategic innovation. The DIUS survey indicates that there are both regional and sectoral differences in the level of innovation taking place in UK businesses. The largest share of innovators with plans for future product or process innovation was found in knowledge intensive services. The ‘other services’ sector was found to have the lowest share of businesses with innovative inclinations (54%). Construction witnessed the greatest increase in innovation activity between the 2005 and 2007 CIS surveys. The lowest share of innovation active businesses was found in the London (55%) while the greatest share was found in Eastern England (69%). Where no innovation activity was indicated, the DIUS surveys in 2005 and 2007 found the most influential factor to be market conditions limiting the need for innovation.

The fourth Community Innovation Survey (2007) ranked the UK 12^th in the EU in terms of the percentage of all enterprises that are innovation active among all enterprises. In 2007, 43% of all businesses in the UK were innovation active. Higher rates were found for Germany (65%) and Ireland (52%) while the EU27 average (42%) was just below the UK figure, as was the rate in France (33%).

The DIUS Annual Innovation Report 2008 overviews the UK’s performance in innovative activity.  In terms of businesses’ investment in research and development (R&D) (a fundamental component of innovation), the UK ranks 5^th in the G7 countries. R&D performed by the largest companies increased by 5% from 2005 and 2006 in real terms. The UK’s number of US patents granted per head is ranked 5^th in the G7. In 2006, the UK spent 1.75% of GDP on R&D, representing a 4% real increase since 2005.

DIUS has set out a number of the strengths and weaknesses of the UK innovation system. These strengths and weaknesses are detailed in Table 2.

Table 2: Summary of strengths and weaknesses of the UK innovation system

Source: DIUS (2008) Innovation Nation – Background analysis: strengths and weakness of the UK innovation system. Table 1.

4.3      Intellectual Property Rights

According to the Gowers Review (HM Treasury, 2006), “in today’s economy, knowledge capital, more than physical capital, will drive the success of the UK economy.”  In light of this, intellectual property (IP) rights are more important than ever before. With technological advances and increased capabilities to freely share information, IP rights are vital to protect the work and competitiveness of companies and Governments. IP rights are bound by the regulations set internationally but they are of significant concern for the UK as a nation as they are essential to ensuring that the benefits from innovation that takes place in the UK are reaped by the country.

The Community Innovation Survey identifies a number of innovation protection methods which, some of which may be considered forms of intellectual property rights. These methods include:

• Registration of design
• Trademarks
• Patents
• Confidentiality agreements
• Copyright.

According to the 2007 survey, confidentiality agreements were considered to be of high importance by 18% of businesses. The proportion of respondents attaching high importance to the measure of innovation protection increased for all methods between the 2005 and 2007 surveys[15]. This may be indicative of a greater need to protect businesses’ innovative and intellectual property or could indicate the increased awareness of this need and of ways to ensure protection.

The Gowers Review set out an intellectual property system meant to be fit for the digital age. The review suggested strengthening IPR enforcement through a number of avenues. The review also suggested ways to support businesses in relation to IPR and how to set out IPR while maintaining a balance between freedoms and protection.  Since the Gowers Review, Trading Standards officers have been given powers of search and seizure in relation to certain kinds of offences which include copyright violations. In 2008, the Government pledged a further £5 million to assist Trading Standards officers to undertake these new duties.

It is important the IP rights regulations and laws are themselves innovative and that they change over time to reflect the risks and security issues associated with IP and new developments. The UK’s Intellectual Property Office has published a consultation regarding IP which was concerned with four main issues: access to works, incentivising investment and creativity, recognising creative output, and authenticating works. The Strategic Advisory Board for IP Policy (SABIP) was launched in effort to consider the strengths and weaknesses of IP in the context of a rapidly changing environment. SABIP recognises that growth rates are higher in the creative sector than in the economy as a whole and that rapid technological change and globalisation have brought into question many aspects of the existing copyright system. SABIP considers the development of a copyright agenda for the 21^st century as timely and necessary. Digital Britain also identified IP as a key issue for the UK’s digital economy.

4.4      The Future

According to BERR “success in the future will come from businesses increasing the added-value of their products, processes and services.” Given this future importance, nine strategic EU priorities for innovation have been set out (see table 5.1).

Table 3: Strategic EU priorities for innovation

Source: BERR (see www.berr.govuk/dius/innovation/page38831.html)

The future of innovation, especially technological innovation, in the UK is closely linked to developments in the supply and quality of STEM workforce[16]. STEM-skilled people are necessary for R&D and for scientific innovation to take place. Should the fears over the supply of STEM graduates not be confronted and allayed, the future of innovation in the UK will be tightly constrained. However, if the UK keeps up its supply and quality of STEM workforce, then the country will be well placed to take advantage of future opportunities that innovation activity may provide.

The future will present numerous opportunities for innovation of which the UK Government and businesses will want to take full advantage. New customers, production patterns, technologies and expectations will provide great opportunities for employment, businesses and even new industries[17]. It is important then that the UK continue to innovate and to increase its capacity to innovate in order to ensure it is ready to take advantage of future opportunities.

The increasing importance of the environmental agenda is one area that will certainly pose further opportunities in the future. As consumers continue to make businesses aware of their concern for the environment and their desire for ‘green’ products and services, businesses will need to come up with new ways of working and new or modified products and services to meet these tastes. Companies whose products/services are not capable of been ‘greened’ will either go out of business or will have to come up with innovative solutions to move into other sectors. The green consumer will also require new, to date unheard-of products that will fit in with greener living. This demand will provide opportunities for existing businesses to enhance their own products/services to fill this requirement or to create new products/services to fit the need.

5.      Emerging economies owing to technological change

This section looks at types of emerging or new economic activities that may constitute significant areas of work and activity in the future. These emerging economies were probably unimaginable for most people 5 to 10 years ago. However, as video games and virtual worlds become more sophisticated and increasingly allow people to interact online, their prominence in everyday life will increase as well. Also, as internet access and people’s interest in technology has increased other opportunities have arisen.

Some of the issues to be discussed here include the opportunities presented by massive multi-player online role-playing game (MMPORG) and the use of virtual or synthetic worlds for business and leisure purposes. These are not yet mainstream activities but by the time that people born since the late 1980s are in work and form the majority of the labour force, these relatively novel opportunities and ways of working may become widely used and accepted and contribute significantly to employment and GDP.

5.1      Virtual/synthetic worlds

Virtual worlds are computer based simulated environments intended for users to inhabit and in which users interact through avatars. Virtual worlds are shared spaces that allow multiple users to take part simultaneously. Things take place immediately in the virtual world once an action has been taken by a user. Virtual worlds are not completely alien concepts as they have much in common with the real world. Forces like gravity and cause and effect are exhibited in both, and things like the economy and market are important features of virtual worlds.

Virtual worlds offer new ways for groups of people to interact, exchange information and conduct business over the internet. There are a number of types of virtual worlds serving various purposes. Some virtual worlds are gaming worlds (eg World of Warcraft and other MMORPG). Other virtual worlds are mainly operated for social networking and online communities (eg There.com). Virtual worlds are sometimes created to facilitate immersive education, or corporate collaboration. Business oriented virtual worlds support a wide range of activities including e-commerce, virtual events, marketing and branding, customer service and interaction, recruitment, advertising, and product demonstration. Virtual worlds may be used to build customer loyalty and to gain valuable feedback through focus groups.

These worlds also create new opportunities for business, providing venues for customers to socialise, collaborate, purchase goods, train and play.  While relatively new, virtual worlds represent a significant opportunity for business and economic benefits to the economy. In the US, there has been significant investment in virtual world-related companies over the past few years. According to Virtual Worlds Management, venture capital and media firms invested more than US$425 million in 15 virtual world-related companies (with US$50 million concentrated in just two acquisitions) in the fourth quarter of 2007. There were investments of US$493 million invested in virtual world-related companies in the first three quarters of 2008 with US$148.5 million in 12 virtual world-related companies in the third quarter. Of these investments, the greatest shares are in companies with entertainment spaces (.e meant for leisure and entertainment use rather than education or business). Over US$1 billion was invested in 35 virtual world operations in the year to October 2007.[18] While these are large sums of money, they are still dwarfed by corresponding investments in the real economy.

Second Life is a relatively common example of a virtual world. Second Life was created by Linden Lab and opened to the public in 2003. Since its launch it has gained more than 2 million members. This three dimensional virtual world is accessed through the internet. Users download a client program and through this they can create avatars (characters) and other items (houses, furnishings, etc). Members of the Second Life world pay membership fees. This virtual world has its own virtual and economy with a currency, Linden dollars ($L), that has traceable exchange rates with money in the real world ($US).

Users interact in many ways in the Second Life virtual world. More savvy users create various items which they can sell/rent to other Second Life inhabitants. Residents can take part in numerous activities, in public or private, in the Second Life world. There are group activities, learning activities and more unsavoury activities taking place in Second Life.

While Second Life is a fairly well-heard of virtual world, it has not been without its problems since its launch in 2003.[19] A number of companies have entered the Second Life environment hoping to capitalise on marketing and advertising opportunities. This has proved relatively unsuccessful. Other problems have been encountered due to the sometimes fuzzy line separating virtual activities from reality. Second Life has shut down casinos due to the prohibition of online gambling in the US. Tax authorities in the US also have difficulty determining the appropriate tax treatment of money generated through such virtual worlds as Second Life. The use of virtual worlds for unlawful or unsavoury activity is also a problem and there have been cases in Second Life where things such as real child pornography have been exchanged between members.

Second Life’s membership is high.  However, there is concern that interest has been waning. The number of active members is believed to be much lower than the total number of members. Restrictions placed on this virtual world because of its notoriety are having effects on its popularity. The availability of other virtual worlds with free membership, such as There.com[20] and yoowalk.com, or with different foci increases the level of competition faced by Second Life.

5.2      Economic and business opportunities presented by virtual worlds

A number of business opportunities have come from the existence of virtual worlds such as Second Life and massively multi-player online role-playing games (MMORPG) such as World of Warcraft. These new environments present opportunities:

• for real business processes to occur in the virtual world
• for new employment opportunities to be generated in the real world through satisfying demand for various virtual commodities
• for producing and expanding these types of environments and games, and
• for policy proposals to be investigated through virtual ‘experiments’.

Companies such as Intel, Cisco, IBM, Stanford University and Diageo all hold regular internal and occasionally external meetings of their employees avatars in virtual worlds.[21] Military and emergency services have also been using virtual worlds and simulation games that enable training.

Forbes.com set out 10 ways to make real money in virtual worlds. Virtual worlds allow for people to make real-world money as[22]:

1. Gold Farmer – considered an ‘easy’ way to make money, involves spending a lot of time playing games with the sole objective of collecting as much of the game’s currency (typically gold coins) or weapons. The gold, weapons or other items are then sold to other gamers (with less time to play) through onsite trading (eg ebay). This is a popular pursuit in Asia where companies have been found to pay employees to work shifts of eight hours or more and then sell the accumulated wealth to players in Europe or America. According to Edward Castronova, trading of real dollars for gold pieces is more than $1 billion each year. [23]
2. Prostitute – the world’s oldest profession has infiltrated the virtual world, perhaps even more than it is practiced in the real world. In Second Life, prostitutes receive Linden dollars for services rendered online. This game currency can then be exchanged with others for real money. In 2007, a sex business in Second Life sold for US$50,000 on ebay.
3. Power Leveller – this involves playing games to advanced levels on behalf of other players who do not have enough free time to advance in the game as they would like to. EZGamers for example, will log into a game as a person’s character and play on their behalf. Prices charged for this service vary but a full 24 hours of focused play would cost about $25.
4. Merchant – games and environments like Second Life often allow for users to create unique virtual items such as clothing, weapons, home furnishings which they may then sell in game for virtual currency or elsewhere online (eg ebay) for real money.
5. Designer – Second Life users and other similar virtual worlds often desire custom-designed clothes to create beautiful avatars. Manufacturing virtual designer goods is relatively easy and the manufacturing costs are zero. While virtual clothing sells for relatively little virtual currency, bulk selling adds up and can result in real money gains. Listings for clothing and furniture can be found on ebay.
6. Architect – Similar to the idea for designers, people in games like Second Life, particularly those who spend much time in virtual worlds, like having nice virtual things and a home is one of these. Often the residents do not have the ability or want to build/design these things themselves so third parties may create an opportunity through selling such to players. Pre-built buildings in second life are traded on the game’s SL exchange with a castle, for example, selling for the equivalent of $53.
7. Gambler – this operates in pretty much the same way in virtual worlds as in real life. Virtual winnings can be exchanged for real world currency. A number of Las Vegas casinos had set up operations on Second Life but in 2007, gambling was abolished from Second Life as US laws prohibit online gambling and the treatment of virtual world gambling came into question.
8. Beggar – most online games allow players to give others in the game money or goods. While most players would give very little, if one has enough time, one could accumulate enough virtual goods/currency to exchange for a more substantial amount of real money.
9. Selling your character – once players are bored with a game, and if they have advanced sufficiently in that game, they may choose to sell on their virtual character to other players.  A student at the University of Virginia sold his World of Warcraft character on ebay for $1,200.
10. Landlord – property is available on Second Life (and other similar virtual worlds) but the most desirable properties are bought up very quickly. Virtual landlords, with sufficient land, may sell property to new players. In Second Life, this activity has netted relatively large sums of money for a number of individuals. One Second Life property trader reportedly owns virtual property worth US$250,000.

5.3       Open Source technology

Open Source is an approach to design, development and distribution offering practical accessibility to a product’s source (goods and knowledge) (Wikipedia). The most commonly known type of open source product is software. According to the Open Source Initiative, the definition of open source does not just apply to access to software’s source code but also to the distribution terms of which must meet the following criteria[24]:

• Free distribution
• Source code
• Derived works
• Integrity of the Author’s source code
• No discrimination against persons or groups
• No discrimination against fields of endeavour
• Distribution of license
• License must not be specific to a product
• License must not contaminate any other software.

The open source (OS) approach has been empowered by advances in ICTs and the proliferation of internet to homes and businesses. The term is now used with reference to software, hardware and user generated content. The OS approach involves the free sharing of code (in the case of software) which people can use, amend and change for their own purposes. The source code, as set out above, is free for use and redistribution and there is nothing to prohibit people from using it as a basis for the development of a product that they go on to market commercially.

This approach is becoming more and more mainstream, with significant economic impacts. The Standish Group International estimated that open source software (OSS) cost traditional software companies US$60 billion in 2008. The global loss due to use of proprietary software rather than OSS is estimated to be more than US$1 trillion per year with losses in the US thought to be at least US$400 billion.[25]

Perhaps the most well known example of OSS is Linux, an operating system that was first introduced in the early 1990s. The Linux Foundation values the Linux ecosystem at US$25 billion. It is used all over the world in applications such as the New York Stock Exchange, mobile phones, supercomputers and consumer devices. In a White Paper[26], the Linux Foundation (2008) estimated that building the Fedora 9 distribution of Linux would have cost US$10.8 billion had it been a more conventional proprietary development. Developing the Linux kernel alone is valued at US$1.4 billion.

The use of OSS in enterprises is becoming more commonplace, particularly in response to the possible cost savings that such software presents. Government too is moving towards more widespread use of OSS in order to save money. The feasibility of OSS use in schools has also been highlighted by the British Educational Communications and Technology Agency (Becta, 2005). However, to date, the Government has not modified its procurement policies in order to capitalise on the use of OSS.

The viability of open source hardware is also coming to the fore. OS hardware, typically computing and electronics hardware, is designed, developed and distributed in a similarly collaborative manner as OSS. Free information is shared on the hardware’s design, schematics, guides, associated software and so on. These details are then free to be developed further by users, and by-products can typically be sold. Arduino is an example of a company based on open source hardware. This company produces the Arduino circuit board, the design of which they have made open source. This allows others to produce copies of the board, redesign it and sell boards which copy the Arduino board design. The only caveat is that subsequent versions/creations based on the Arduino board must be on the board’s original Creative Commons license, so that new versions are equally free and open as the original.

The idea of open source software and hardware implies very different business models than the conventional development of such products. In the case of open source hardware, one way in which companies operate is in producing ‘kits’ that enable consumers to build the product themselves and to make alterations/changes as they require. MAKE magazine is devoted to DIY technology projects and has detailed 60 open source hardware projects in 2008.[27]

Open source inventors/designers may often launch their projects without concern over how to make money from them. The inventors of projects (software or hardware) that become widely used often then become the main point of expertise for users, which may lead to opportunities for consultancy and development services in a more conventional manner. An alternative economic approach regarding open source hardware is that companies may create such hardware and market it. This hardware will then be copied by competitors but the inventor of the open source hardware should have the capacity to stay ahead of competitors, given the feedback and suggestions they receive from the user community. This is particularly true for quality issues as the original quality of such hardware may not be replicated by competitors, thus the inventor can stay ahead on quality grounds.

Related to open source hardware, or at least to users’ capabilities to make changes to and copy new technologies, is the idea of reverse engineering.  Individuals may reverse engineer products to figure out how they work and how they can enhance and change these products to suit their purposes and to use them for other applications. This can be a negative issue for companies as it undoubtedly involves some illegal copying of products, however, for others it may extend the usefulness and thus market life of other products, resulting in greater incomes for some companies.

5.4      Future opportunities

The future opportunities presented by open source technologies are numerous. The newly installed US president has already commissioned Sun Microsystems to assess the implications of open source for Government and to make recommendations on how it can optimise the benefits of OS technologies. The British Government has performed analyses of the feasibility of OSS for schools (see Becta above) and for Government departments and agencies.  However, its use is not yet universal in Government. As individuals, businesses and governments increasingly look to cut costs, open source technologies will become more mainstream, thus reducing profitability of proprietary software companies. Perhaps such companies will become redundant in the future?

Open source technologies also present opportunities to address inequality in society, especially for developing countries. Open source results in software and hardware being cheaper and more widely available thus poorer countries may be able to catch up with the technologies that are used in richer countries as open source is used in more and more applications.

The 10 ways to make money in virtual worlds described above (Section 5.2) are likely to continue, and many may take on more significance in the future as games become more and more popular and as more people in the world increase their levels of disposable income.

According to Zhao et al (2000), virtual worlds present greater opportunities for human-centric work than do the more traditional ways of working and workplaces. Personal motivation and the satisfaction of personal decision-making are common features of online communities. As more human-centric work becomes more valuable to many people and seen as a more productive means of working by many, the organisational forms in online environments may be more commonly used for work than they currently are.

The types of virtual worlds that exist in the future will help to shape the opportunities that may arise from them. Current investment trends in virtual world-related companies shows that more investors are becoming interested in virtual worlds for youth and children. Virtual worlds for these groups, such as Club Penguin (owned by Disney), are popular, with growing memberships. There is a definite market here.  There are even online payment systems such as Ukash being developed for children who usually don’t have credit cards which are the most used type of online payment method. There is also a version of Second Life explicitly meant for teenagers aged 13 to 17[28].

From entrepreneurs to large multinational corporations, interest in virtual worlds is growing quickly. In the future, the corporate use of virtual worlds looks set to grow for activities such as meetings and staff training. Use of virtual worlds for such activities could help businesses to improve their productivity through reducing costs. Virtual activity could also save them time, money and resources. As companies use virtual worlds to generate revenue through marketing, branding and advertising, new and innovative forms of interactive advertising will arise. This could possibly compete with the use of typical real-world advertising media such as posters and billboards. Virtual worlds may also enhance collaboration through flexible application sharing.

In the future, hybrid types of virtual worlds are likely to arise for gaming, social networking, immersive education, corporate collaboration, business activities and focus groups. While no one predicts that virtual worlds will replace real physical interactions, they may enhance such meetings and will enhance the 2-dimensional internet.

With increased use of virtual worlds and increased opportunities to make real money from such worlds, it is inevitable that some people will take advantage of opportunities to commit crime in these virtual worlds. Already, child pornography has been exchanged in virtual worlds. The use of more online trading with real world money may also lead to increased opportunities for identity theft and fraud. Harassment and bullying that takes place online may also have significant real world impact on individuals, particularly vulnerable people such as children. The negative aspects of technological advance are discussed in Section 6.

6.      Possible negative effects of technological development

While technological developments are generally considered to be of great benefit to society and the economy, there are also often negative effects associated with advances in technology and the proliferation of such technologies amongst the population. Almost all technological developments have some negative social and economic effects in today’s world. Whilst the monetary value of some negative social effects may be difficult, near on impossible, to measure, it is possible that the negative side of technology advancement can sometimes outweigh the positive effects. Whatever the impact, the negative implications of advances in technology are important and should not be dismissed.

6.1      Work and the workplace

6.1.1   Telecommunications – remote working and offshoring

Most technological advances impact on the nature, form and content of work, and on the workplace itself. Some of the negative impacts particularly affect how work is performed and the productivity of workers. Developments in telecommunications, such as the widespread use of internet networks and the resulting increase in the ability of employees to work remotely has been hailed largely as a benefit to businesses and workers. In an ideal world, remote working gives employers virtually the same access to their employees they would have if they were working onsite, and employees can produce the same output remotely as they could if in the office. For employees, remote working can help solve problems created by conflicting work and home responsibilities by allowing for more flexibility of the work environment.

However, in some cases, remote working can create problems for both employer and employee. The quality of work may be an issue, as there may be difficulties with some employees working with no supervision, or there may be some things that simply cannot be done as well away from the office as they could be done onsite (eg collaborative work or work requiring physical outputs). For employees, being remotely connected to one’s work sometimes results in increased working hours as workers may be ‘on-call’ and are expected to be reached whenever needed for work purposes. For some people the technologies that allow them to work from home (or wherever) may be frustrating. The division between work and home life may be blurred by such working situations. People who work from home or elsewhere outside their company’s environs may also miss out on the social interaction that occurs with colleagues and clients in the workplace. This interaction can also be beneficial for knowledge sharing and the generation of ideas. Working remotely does not typically permit such informal and/or unplanned interaction to occur.[29]

Developments in telecommunications have also allowed some companies to move particular departments that do not require face-to-face contact with customers/users to remote or overseas locations. This has been a big development for customer service departments, particularly in the banking sector. Customers in the UK who call their bank to speak to someone about customer service issues may speak to a representative who is actually sitting at a desk in India or Canada. There have been many complaints from consumers voicing dissatisfaction with such service. But offshoring these and other services helps companies to cut costs.  If customers are displeased enough to stop doing business with a company then that is a significant negative outcome for the company. From the view point of employees in the UK, offshoring business functions puts some people here out of jobs.

6.1.2   Robotics and automation

Other advances that have impacted on work are robotics and manufacturing machinery that permits much of the manufacturing process to be automated. Automated bank machines and store checkouts have also been important cost-reducing technologies that have grown popular. Such technologies have allowed many companies to improve productivity significantly. On the negative side, however, many people have lost jobs due to automation. From a social perspective, the use of machines for banking (eg ATMs) and retail shopping (eg self-serve kiosks) may also be considered to have a negative impact on people’s day to day social interaction. The use of automated systems for customer services is also considered a negative development in many people’s opinions.

6.1.3   Use of internet at work

While the internet has benefited work and business in a number of ways, the personal use of internet by employees while at work is less beneficial to worker productivity and companies’ bottom lines. The CBI (2008) conducted a survey that indicated  that employees’ personal use of the internet while at work costs employers in the UK as much as £10.6 billion each year. The average UK employee spends 1.5 hours per week, or ten days per year, using the internet at work for personal reasons. Employers estimate that 4.4% of working time is lost in this way, with an average annual cost of £939 per employee. [30]

6.2      Social effects

6.2.1   Cyberbullying/cyber-harassment

Definitions and forms of cyberbullying

The Department for Children Schools and Families (DCSF), in its Guidance on preventing and responding to cyberbullying, states that cyberbullying is “the use of Information and Communications Technology (ICT), particularly mobile phones and the internet, deliberately to upset someone else”. According to the website www.stopcyberbullying.org, cyberbullying is:

when a child, preteen or teen is tormented, threatened, harassed, humiliated, embarrassed or otherwise targeted by another child, preteen or teen using the Internet, interactive and digital technologies or mobile phones. It has to have a minor on both sides, or at least have been instigated by a minor against another minor.

If an adult is involved or becomes involved in such a matter, it is then termed ‘cyber-harassment’ or ‘cyberstalking’.

According to a government study in the UK[31], more than one third of children aged 12 to 15 have faced some sort of cyberbullying. Cyberbullying/harassment is a serious matter that did not exist before various telecommunications technologies were created and became readily available and accessible to young people and children. While bullying and harassment are not new phenomena amongst children and teenagers, the means through which such activity may take place have changed dramatically with the advent of mobile phones and affordable internet services. Children and young people are very capable in using the latest telecommunications technology, and many have significant presence on the web. Cyberbullying can involve a number of actions on the part of the bully, including:  posting false or embarrassing information about the subject of the bullying on Facebook, MySpace or Bebo profiles, sending threatening or degrading emails or text messages directly to the subject, or circulating embarrassing information about the subject to others via text or email. In some cases, the bully may steal the victim’s password and send inappropriate or embarrassing messages to others or may use the victim’s password to inappropriately change the person’s profile.

A related term ‘happy-slapping’ describes a fad in which someone unexpectedly physically attacks another person and the assault is recorded, typically on a mobile phone’s video camera. These videos are often circulated to others via phone or email, and sometimes the ‘happy-slapper’ posts the video on the internet.

Statistics

The incidence of cyberbullying varies considerably between surveys and depending on the age group in question. Estimates vary from 11% to over 30%. Goldsmiths carried out research for the Anti-Bullying Alliance (ABA) in 2006 which found that 22% of 11 to 16 year olds had been victims of cyberbullying. According to the MSN cyberbullying report in 2006, 11% of 12 to 15 year olds in the UK had experienced cyberbullying. In a four year study on bullying, Noret and Rivers found that 15% of the more than 11,000 children in their sample had received nasty or aggressive text messages and emails. This demonstrated a year on year increase in the number of children subjected to bullying through new ICT. In research conducted as part of the DCSF cyberbullying information campaign, it was found that 34% of 12 to 15 year olds had been victims of such activity. Despite discrepancies in the actual percentages of young people who are victims of cyberbullying, the overall conclusion is that this problem is significant in the lives of many children in the UK and other countries.[32] Furthermore, with the increasing use of ICT by children and the greater importance that such technologies have in this generation’s daily activities, cyberbullying is likely to continue to be a growing problem.

Legislation and policy

As a form of bullying, cyberbullying is covered by the range of education law that deems bullying unacceptable and outlines that the school community has a duty to protect its members (students, teachers and staff). The Education and Inspections Act (EIA) 2006 sets out some legal powers which are more directly related to cyberbullying. It gives head teachers the power to regulate, to a reasonable extent, the conduct of pupils when they are situated away from the school grounds. This is particularly relevant for cyberbullying as it is very likely to take place outside of school but it has definite ramifications for school life. Some cyberbullying activities may be deemed criminal under a variety of different laws, including the Protection from Harassment Act 1997 and the Public Order Act 1986.

The Government has undertaken a number of initiatives in attempts to raise awareness and reduce the incidence of cyberbullying, particularly amongst children and teenagers. Guidelines for dealing with cyberbullying have been published by DCSF.[33] A number of organisations have websites devoted to providing information on cyberbullying and information on the help that is available to victims and their families.[34] Directgov also provides information for young people in relation to cyberbullying, its effects, how to prevent it and where to get help.

Effects of cyberbullying

While bullying is not a new phenomenon, cyberbullying is a relatively new concept with impacts on its victims that are also additional to those suffered by victims of ‘traditional’ bullying. Use of ICT to bully and harass enables the bully to reach more people fairly easily and quickly whereas traditional bullying is a more face-to-face, one-on-one activity. Reaching more victims means that the problem of cyberbullying may have greater overall impacts. The ease with which information can be shared in cyberspace also means that embarrassing or hurtful rumours, pictures or information related to victims can be shared with large numbers of people furthering the harm that this exposure causes.

New ICT also permits bullying to take place at times when face to face contact is impossible thus cyberbullying may be perpetrated 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. This results in the victim having no reprieve from the bullying and feeling vulnerable wherever he/she may be. New technologies also allow for increased anonymity of bullies, again creating more vulnerability for victims.

The effects of cyberbullying on victims vary. Depression, anxiety and other mental health issues may arise from cyberbullying. This can affect victims’ performance in school and relationships with others. In some cases, the negative behaviour escalates to the point where there is actual physical violence or harassment between the bully and victim. A number of cases have come to light in the media of young people committing or attempting suicide after being victimised by cyberbullies.

Workplace cyberbullying and harassment can have financial consequences for the victim and the organisation as it can lead to absenteeism and reduced productivity. Where the bullying affects the victim to the extent that they resign from their position the victim and his family may suffer financial hardships which may contribute to the break down of relationships.

With today’s young people and younger generations being considered ‘digital natives’ they are more adept at using ICT and other new technologies. These technologies are increasingly a part of their daily lives such that their virtual lives and real lives merge. With such increased use come increased opportunities for cyberbullying to take place. In the workplace, cyberbullying and harassment is increasingly problematic as ICT technologies become commonplace in most organisations. As social networking websites, video sharing websites and blogspaces become increasingly common and accessible, the incidence of cyberbullying and its impacts on victims may become more widespread and increasingly serious in nature.

6.2.2   Education sector

Advances in technology, like the internet and its wide coverage and ease of access, have had profound effects on education both in terms of content and how subjects are taught. Classrooms now have more than just blackboards and chalk. Electronic whiteboards, digital projectors and things like PowerPoint presentations are common means of delivering information to students in the classroom. While these new teaching aids have been considered improvements there may be some students for whom these devices lack the personal touch that they require to learn effectively.

The proliferation of home internet connections and the use of the internet by producers of knowledge to disseminate their work freely/widely has increased the opportunity for students to commit plagiarism if they are so inclined. Other technological developments however, have improved the tools available to teachers and providers to detect such plagiarism. Cheating in examinations using mobile phones for texting answers is also a relatively recent phenomenon made possible by developments in telecommunications technologies. A survey conducted by the student newspaper, Varsity, found that just under half of undergraduates who took their poll had submitted someone else’s work under their own name. Law students were found to be the most likely to plagiarise (62%).[35]

Advancing technologies have also had some negative impacts on the quality of students’ education. Text messaging, for instance, and the abbreviated slang many people use in texts is thought to have had a negative effect on many young people’s and children’s ability in spelling and grammar. There have been ideas put forth that the system of spelling and grammar in the English language should change to accommodate text language rules, however, the general consensus appears to be that text messaging has had a negative effect on the literacy of some young people and children.

6.2.3   Identity theft and internet fraud

In 2000, CNN reported that the internet and online commerce was allowing criminals to use false identification to commit crimes. Since that time, increased use of authentification and other security measures have helped to mitigate the risk of identity theft and other forms of online fraud. However, in 2005, Dr. Emily Finch of the University of East Anglia asserted that increasing use of technology actually worsens identity theft and that human vigilance is the best defence against identity fraud[36]. Criminals themselves use technology to their advantage to clone bank and credit cards, steal people’s personal identification numbers (PIN), to produce counterfeit money, to produce false travel documents such as passports and find ways of circumventing technological security measures.

Phishing is the process by which a person or persons fraudulently attempts to obtain sensitive or confidential information including usernames, passwords and financial details by representing oneself as a trustworthy company or person in email or other electronic communications. Phishing emails often take the form of an email from ‘your bank’ requiring you to verify your password. Many phishing scams fraudulently represent themselves as originating from banks, financial institutions, social networking sites and IT administrators within companies. Data breaches in 2008 have been estimated to have cost companies £700 billion worldwide. Phishing scams and trogan keystroke loggers were found to be behind UK online bank fraud in 2004 that totalled around £12 million.

6.2.4   Terrorism

The internet and cheap mobile phones have allowed for some terrorist networks and for individuals with extreme views to communicate, increase membership and support, coordinate actions, and raise funds. The number of terrorist sites increased exponentially over the last 10 years from less than 100 to more than 4,800 two years ago.[37] However, these numbers likely underestimate the true presence of such sites and information online. Terrorist websites can offer information on constructing bombs or can serve as virtual training grounds for terrorist activities. A number of terrorist groups and extremists have their own websites with discussion pages where members/viewers share their opinions and ideas related to terrorism with the hopes of raising membership and morale. Terrorist networks use the internet and related technologies in a number of ways to benefits their organisations. According to the United States Institute of Peace contemporary terrorists use the internet in eight different ways:

1. psychological warfare
2. publicity and propaganda
3. data mining
4. fundraising
5. recruitment and mobilisation
6. networking
7. sharing information, and
8. planning and coordination.

Recent examples of the use of the internet and other new ICT by terrorist organisations includes the development of a new generation of encrypted software called “Mujahidden Secrets 2”. This software gives security to users that allows them to communicate freely through email without being observed by intelligence agencies or authorities. It has also been reported that Al-Qaeda want to create an online Jihad University.[38] There is also evidence of online gambling being used by terrorist networks to launder money and videos, blogs and virtual training platforms are believed to be used for recruiting and training terrorists.

Legislation and policy relating to terrorism and the internet and ICTs

The Terrorism Act 2006 prohibits the encouragement of acts of terrorism and the dissemination of terrorist publications. This Act deems inciting terrorism over the internet a criminal offence and those found guilty of such an offence may be jailed for up to seven years.

One of the key priorities related to preventing terrorism that is set out by in the European Union Counter-Terrorism Strategy is to “develop common approaches to spot and tackle problem behaviour, in particular the misuse of the internet.”

6.2.5   Pornography, sexual predators

With its free flow of information and connections between users all over the world, the internet has become an ideal forum for finding, viewing and sharing pornographic material. Most readily available statistics regarding pornography on the internet come from the US. The number of pornographic webpages in the US has been found to be 244.7 million while in the UK the number is estimated around 8.5 million. The internet pornography industry in the US had revenues of US$2.5 billion in 2005 and US$2.84 billion in 2006.[39]

Whether or not adults’ use of pornography is a bad thing is a very subjective matter; the exploitation of children in pornography and their exposure to pornographic material on the internet is generally agreed to be unacceptable. As children are starting to use the internet at younger ages and as they are more and more knowledgeable about use of the internet and other technologies, it is very likely that many young internet users come across pornographic material at some time. In the US, the average age at which a child is first exposed to internet pornography is estimated to be 11 years. Approximately 90% of 8 to 16 year olds have viewed pornography online.[40] The likelihood of children accidentally encountering pornographic images online is elevated by the links between children’s characters and pornographic websites.

The use of children in pornography and the exchange of child pornography on the internet are perhaps the most disturbing issues. According to the Guardian, the number of websites offering child pornography to UK internet users increased by 75% in 2005.[41] In 2003 the National Centre for Missing and Exploited Children (US) estimated that 20% of all internet pornography involves children. The US Customs Service estimated that 100,000 websites offer illegal child pornography. As of December 2005, child pornography was a US$3 billion per year industry.[42]

The widespread availability and large use of pornography on the internet is thought by a number of people to lead to breakdowns in families and relationships. In 2003, two-thirds of the 350 divorce lawyers who attending a meeting of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers indicated that the internet was a significant factor in divorces with excessive interest in cyberporn being an issue in more than half of such cases.[43]

Grooming children for sexual exploitation or other harmful treatment has also been propagated through new technologies. Internet and online communication has proven to be a common means used by some people to make contact with young children (and older people as well) with the ultimate aim of exploiting the subject. Grooming involves befriending and gaining the trust of a child for the purposes of creating a situation where the child may be sexually exploited. Chatrooms, virtual worlds, and email communication are commonly used methods of contact and the anonymity such forms of communication afford to people has allowed many to pose as other children in order to enhance the level of trust between them and potential victims.

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This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

[2] DCSF, Press Notice 2008/0017, “£140m boost to science and maths teaching in schools”, January 2008 (http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/pns/DisplayPN.cgi?pn_id=2008_0017)

[3] www.onrec.com/newsstories/21255.asp

[4] CIHE figures

[5] e.g. www.futuremorph.org, www.equalfuturez.net

[6] University of Birmingham, Press Release, 16 December 2008 (http://www.newscentre.bham.ac.uk/press/2008/12/16STEMprogramme.shtml)

[7] Pro Inno Europe (2005) European Innovation Scoreboard 2005 (http://www.proinno-europe.eu/docs/Reports/Documents/EIPR2006-final.pdf)

[8] HM Treasury (2004) Science and Innovation Investment Framework: 2004-2014

[9] Brockbank, S. (2008) “The UK STEM skills shortage” The Life Science Centre.

[10] The projections of employment by discipline for various occupational and sectoral categories take no direct account of changes in the flows emerging from the educational system (i.e. the supply side). They therefore conflate both supply and demand influences. They indicate the numbers that might be expected if recent trends continue.

[11] See www.hrmguide.co.uk/general/child_workers.htm for some highlight findings of the 2001 survey

[12] R. Tyler “Saving small firms has become big business in Westminster”, thetelegraph.co.uk, 29 December 2008,  (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/3982481/Saving-small-firms-has-become-big-business-in-Westminster.html)

[13] The Telegraph, 5 January 2009. “Start-ups remain resilient despite recession” (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/4125906/Start-ups-remain-resilient-despite-recession.html)

[14] HM Government (http://www.hmg.gov.uk/newopportunities/opportunities/ future_opportunities.aspx)

[15] DIUS (2008) Persistence and change in UK innovation 2002-2006

[16] See section 1 for more on the importance of STEM and its implications for innovation

[17] Cabinet Office (2008) Getting On, Getting Ahead

[18] Bailey, D. “Real dangers lurk in virtual worlds”, www.computing.co.uk

[19] Dell, K. “Second Life’s real-world problems” www.time.com

[20] Basic membership is free in There.com but a premium membership requires payment of monthly fees.

[21] Sawabey, P. “Serious business in virtual worlds” (2007) www.information-age.com

[22] Forbes.com (2007) “Ten ways to make real money in virtual worlds” (www.forbes.com/2006/08/07/virtual-world-jobs_ex_de_0807virtualjobs.html)

[23] http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2008/01/edward_castrono.html

[24] See http://www.opensource.ac.uk/mirrors/www.opensource.org/docs/definition.html for full definition

[25] BBC online, “Calls for Open Source Government” by Maggie Sheils (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7841486.stm)

[26] McPherson, A., B. Proffitt and R. Hale-Evans (2008) “Estimating the Total Development Cost of a Linux Distribution” The Linux Foundation (http://www.linuxfoundation.org/publications/estimatinglinux.php)

[27] “Open source hardware 2008 – The definitive guide to open source hardware projects in 2008” (http://blog.makezine.com/archive/2008/11/_draft_open_source_hardwa.html)

[28] http://teen.secondlife.com – basic membership is free in this version of Second Life

[29] The use of virtual meeting places for work purposes (as discussed in section 5) is thought to present a possible solution to this problem as in theory it allows for people’s avatars to meet and discuss things without planning to do so.

[30] CBI Press Release “Over 90 minutes a week spent on personal websurfing at work” (http://www.cbi.org.uk/ndbs/Press.nsf/0363c1f07c6ca12a8025671c00381cc7/94d596bf6bcd69708025745e003b722b?OpenDocument)

[31] Cyberbullying – Safe to Learn: Embedding anti-bullying work in schools, DCSF (2007).

[32] Recent studies in the US, Poland and Japan have found similar results to those in the UK (see Gardner, W. (2008) “Cyberbullying: a whole-school community approach” ChildRight, February 2008: pp. 25-28. According to Smith et al (2005) studies have shown that 13 per cent of children in Australia have been exposed to cyberbullying by year 8 while in the US 42 per cent o f9 to 13 year olds had been bullied online and 53 per cent admitted that they had bullied someone else online.

[33] Cyberbullying – Safe to Learn: Embedding anti-bullying work in schools, DCSF (2007).

[34] For example, www.stopcyberbullying.org, www.kidscape.org.uk/cyberbullying/

[35] Guardian.co.uk “Universities review plagiarism policies to catch Facebook cheats” (http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2008/oct/31/facebook-cheating-plagiarism-cambridge-varsity-wikipedia) 31 October 2008

[36] Thomson, I. (2005) “Technology accused of aiding ID theft – Another blow to ID cards”, www.vnunet.com/2141845 .

[37] Kaplan, E., “Terrorists and the internet” (http://www.cfr.org/publication/10005/#2). Updated 8 January 2009.

[38] Harding, T. (2009) “Terrorists launder cash through online gambling” Telegraph.co.uk (www.telegraph.co.uk/scienceandtechnology/technology/4060727)

[39] Statistics from Internet Filter Learning Centre (http://www.internet-filter-review.toptenreviews.com/internet-pornography-statistics.html)

[40] Statistics from Internet Filter Learning Centre (http://www.internet-filter-review.toptenreviews.com/internet-pornography-statistics.html)

[41] “Massive rise in child porn sites” (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/feb/26/news.childrensservices) 26 February 2006.

[42] www.internet-filter-review.com

[43] www.divorcewizards.com

The author is grateful to the Department of Children Families and Schools and to Futurelab in Bristol for their support of the Beyond Current Horizons (BCH) programme of research of which this paper is a small part. The author is especially grateful to the 4 individuals who agreed to form the Working and Employment Challenge Steering Group: for this part of the BCH project:

• Professor Lorna Unwin, (Dept. of Lifelong and Comparative Education, Institute of Education);
• Professor Ewart Keep, (Deputy Director, SKOPE, School of Social Sciences, Cardiff);
• Penny Tamkin, (Programme Director, the Work Foundation);
• Professor Alan Brown, (IER Warwick and TLRP Associate Director).

They all gave generously of their time and energy, trying to help keep the project focused and on track.

The author is also grateful to each of the authors who were commissioned to produce the Review Papers, without which the current document could not have been completed.

Lynn Gambin helped produce some additional Quick Reviews, (to fill a few key gaps not covered by the main reviews).  Thanks are also due to her and to Luke Bosworth, Amanda Kerry and Jackie Wilson for helping to locate, collate and synthesise the enormous amount of material covered and convert it into the present draft. Helpful comments and suggestions were also made by a number of colleagues also working on the BCH programme, especially Keri Facer and Richard Sandford from Futurelab and Dave Cliff.

None of these bears any responsibility for any remaining errors. The final set of judgements made, and the views expressed, should be attributed solely to the author.

1.      Introduction

1.1      Background: Aims and key research questions

This report considers how the nature of work and employment is likely to change over the next few decades, in the context of developments in technology and other key drivers of change. It summarises the main trends in employment patterns and other aspects of work. The aim is to establish a long-term vision of the context for education in the second quarter of the 21^st century. Some tentative conclusions about the possible implications for education are then developed.

1.2      Structure of this report

The structure of the remainder of this report (which constitutes the “Synoptic Report” for the Working & Employment Challenge area) comprises two main parts.

Section 2:  Evidence and Insights

This section summarises the evidence gathered during the review process and the related events and insights in the Working and Employment Challenge area that was relevant to the BCH programme. In particular, it highlights:

1. The existing observable social and technological practices in the challenge area which can reasonably confidently be expected to continue to 2025;
2. The factors, for example events or changes in social values, which might play a significant role in shaping future developments in the challenge area;
3. The key uncertainties in the challenge area that may lead to radically divergent future developments, and what might act as the lever for such divergence.

Section 3:  Implications for Education

This section moves on to consider the potential future challenges or opportunities that these trends and factors might present for education. It also considers what evidence there is for policy actions to be taken. This includes what existing educational practices or evidence might provide insights into potential responses to these challenges or opportunities and why.

2.      Key issues and trends: A summary of the evidence and insights generated in the Working and Employment Challenge

2.1      Work and Employment at the start of the new millennium

Paid work in the formal economy is the major activity occupying most people’s waking hours. It is also the prime source of income, as well as representing one of the main ways that most people identify who they are. Rates of participation in the formal economy (the proportion that are economically active) are currently around 85% for males and 75% for females of working age (16-60/65). A significant proportion of the remaining time is taken up by work in the informal economy (housework, caring for family members, care of the home, etc). The “grey economy” also accounts for a significant amount of activity for some people. This includes activities ranging from conventional work (often outside the auspices of the tax authorities) to criminal activities.

Since the 19^th century people have got used to the idea of fixed places of work, leading to a clear distinction between formal work and informal work. This has often had a strong sexist dimension. For many years the male was seen as the breadwinner, while the female role focused more on the home. Two world wars and various other factors have changed both attitudes and behaviour, so that there is now a somewhat more even distribution between the sexes. Women now account for almost half of total employment, although many of the jobs they do are part-time and there remain strong patterns of occupational and sectoral segregation.

Technological change (for example, advances in equipment to aid domestic work) has facilitated new ways of organising the allocation of time to different activities including work and leisure/play. The demographic mix within the formal labour market has shifted dramatically in favour of women’s involvement. Many social norms have changed as a consequence. Expectations of the importance of work and how it fits into people’s lives have also changed.

More recently, information and communications technology (ICT) has had significant impacts on the possibilities for locating work (both locally and globally). ICT allows people to work in very different ways (“distributed work”) but there are often significant human and other barriers and constraints preventing some people from taking full advantage of the opportunities this opens up. Sen (1999) has developed what he terms a capabilities approach to highlight these problems. “Capabilities” as defined by Sen cover a much broader range of issues than the personal capabilities of the individuals concerned as usually described. It also includes various external factors that limit what is possible for those individuals in the circumstances in which they find themselves.

These developments have significant implications for employers, employees and education and training providers. The way that work is structured and organised requires careful consideration, if the opportunities opened up are to be fully exploited to everyone’s best advantage. These issues are discussed in more detail in the reviews by Round (2008) and Atwell and Costa (2008).

2.2      Key Drivers of change

There is a general consensus that there are three main drivers of change in the labour market and the world of work.  These are technological change, globalisation and demographics, (see, for example, Karoly and Panis (2004), Wilson et al. (2007), BCH (2007) and Gambin and Wilson (2008)). The first two drivers in particular are strongly linked, indeed in some respects globalisation can be seen as simply the way individuals, organisations and countries have responded to technological change, depending on the economic constraints they face, and their social and political values.

The key drivers of change as far as employment and work in both the formal (market) and informal economies are concerned, are therefore technological change and demography. Together with political, regulatory, legal infrastructure and social values, plus behaviour, these determine patterns and levels of employment, and the significance of work in the formal economy.

However, as the papers by Cliff et al. (2008), Baldry (2008), Bosworth (2008), Wilson and Gambin (2009) and Harper (2008) make clear, neither technological change nor demography are strictly speaking exogenous.  Everything depends upon everything else.  But for many purposes it makes sense to regard these as external factors impinging on work, employment and education, rather than being shaped by them.

2.2.1   Technological change

Recent technological change has been dominated by the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT), although other technologies may be becoming of equal or greater import over the next 20-30 years (see Cliff et al. (2008) and Dixon (2008)). ICT has been the key technological development over the past 30 years and looks set to dominate events over the next 30 years, albeit sometimes in combination with other technologies such as biotechnology or nanotechnology. ICT has resulted in huge changes in both processes and increasingly also in products and services. These are dramatically changing the worlds of work, employment and education.

Dixon’s paper reviews some of the key trends and possible future developments, including drawing out some implications for learning and education. Recent and near future developments in ICT include real time speech recognition and translation, artificial intelligence and robotics. These developments enable ICT to take over many aspects of work including automation of many functions in service as well as manufacturing operations. Shorter more customised production runs are also facilitated. This has resulted in an explosion of new products and services, as well as new ways of producing them. ICT requirements from employers are often far from clear; they are very heterogeneous. But ICT skills will remain a key area for focus in Education for the foreseeable future.

As noted above, mobile technology enables an increasing amount of work to be done at any time and place (a key aspect of so called “distributed work”). The development of improved communications, as well as transport and logistic services, has revolutionised the relationship between customer and supplier. In many markets key tasks and operations can now be subcontracted to the other side of the world. This brings with it problems in managing distributed work and flexible working patterns, (both locally and globally), which requires new forms of education and training for both managers and employees in general.

ICT has resulted in dramatic changes in both products and services and ways of doing things. This has had significant impact on employment patterns and levels in different locations as individuals, organisations and countries have adjusted and responded to the threats and opportunities that this has offered up. One important consequence is a requirement for a core of very highly qualified experts who understand the technology in depth, plus a more general cadre of high skilled workers to operate it. However, as noted below, not all jobs will be high level ones related to the information/knowledge economy.

Technological change is having a dramatic impact on the structure of employment as well as many other aspects of the way work is conducted. ICT in particular has revolutionised the way business is done, created new markets and offered the possibilities for people to exert much more control over their working lives. It seems certain the pace of change will continue if not accelerate. However, it is important to recognise that just because something is technically possible does not mean that it will inevitably happen. As Baldry (2008) emphasises, outcomes are shaped by social and economic considerations and constraints. Simple extrapolations based on technological determinism, and based on the false idea of a fixed “lump of work”, have resulted in many previous projections of the impact of technology on employment looking very silly, (for an explanation of the “lump of work fallacy” see Box 1). In the 1970s for example the doomsters predicted the collapse of employment and the paperless office would be the prime outcomes of the coming ICT revolution (see, for example, Jenkins and Sherman (1979)). Both were far wide of the mark. This does not mean to say that developments over the next decade or two will not have profound implications for employment and the world of work, but it does illustrate the dangers of simple extrapolation, taking no account of social and economic behaviour and the power of markets to adjust to new circumstances.

Much of the debate on the impact of technological change and globalisation in recent years has focused on its biased nature which has tended to favour skilled labour (so called skill biased technological change (SBTC)). Generally, technological innovations in production methods result in improved productivity. In the short-run, holding all else equal (e.g. output levels), rising productivity implies falling demand for labour. But with biased technical change the demand for some, types of labour may increase.

More generally, economic theory suggests that, in the long term, productivity (output per person hour worked) is primarily determined by technological change, where this is generally defined to include efficiency gains due to re-organisation of working methods and working conditions. In many models this is treated as exogenous (falling like manna from heaven). In so called endogenous growth models (see Bosworth (2008)) it is linked to investment in human and physical capital. At the macro-level, therefore, there is no long-run trade-off between employment and labour productivity growth.

In the long run, if labour markets are functioning efficiently, changes in employment can be expected to reflect changes in the overall size and composition of the labour force, and, in turn, broader demographic changes. The final outcome will also be influenced by the various factors that affect the functioning of the labour market, (such as labour market (and other) policies, and labour market (and other) institutions).

Box 1: The Lump of Work Fallacy

It is clear that dramatic further technological changes are in prospect (Cliff et al, 2008).  But just because something is technically possible does not mean it will inevitably take place. Impact depends on take up and implementation, which is moderated by economic forces costs and benefits) and other factors (such as changing social values), and shaped by existing values and infrastructures.  As noted above, initial estimates of impact of ICT on work and employment in the late 1970s were way off beam.  This reflected the “Lump of work fallacy” (see Box 1 for further general discussion).

In thinking about possible futures it is important to avoid technological determinism (Baldry, 2008).  There are plenty of useful things to be done, including care of people and care of the environment. The question is how to ensure that such jobs are created, and offer a living wage.

2.2.2   The growing importance of virtual worlds and virtual markets

Castronova (2006), Heeks (2008) and others have highlighted the potential of virtual worlds and the internet for generating value in the real world.

There are many positive aspects of such virtual worlds:

• There are many opportunities for translation to real world; sale of virtual world information/assets for real world dollars, so called “gold-farming”;
• Virtual worlds can be used as training environments and vehicles, building up practical experience in low cost and unique ways;
• There are benefits for team work and communication;
• Development of new ways of being (having fun and being happy).

At present these remain relatively minor in terms of income and employment in a UK context. While the “games” industry is worth many billions of US dollars, the scale of gold farming and related activities is much less significant (although quite important for some developing countries, including China (Heeks, 2008)).

More human centric work can be better fitted into new styles of working based on on-line communities (Zhao et al (2007). Online communities can be an important source of work:

• Open source software (OSS);
• Scientific communities facilitated by cyber infrastructure (CI);
• eBay type operations and markets (eBay traders together form one of the largest “sectors” of employment in the USA);
• Creating products and obtaining benefits by working collaboratively in cyberspace.

Most of these activities represent more competitive (individualised/atomised ) markets, rather than monopolistic markets dominated by the “firm” or large corporation. This opens up the possibility of individuals generating their own employment opportunities rather than relying on the State or major corporations to provide them with jobs and employment. This might involve operating in the informal as much as the formal economy. These possibilities are taken up in Section 2.7 below.

Of course there are also negative aspects of such technologies.  These include:

• Exploitation of people over the net;
• Malign intent, (malware, viruses, botnets, etc) ;
• Big brother (both by the State and large corporations);
• Pornography and related activities;
• Criminal activity, identity theft, etc.

Some of these also have a positive economic face. For example, virus protection and other security software is quite big business. The market capitalisation of Symantec and McAfee combined amounts to some $16-17bn, so there is big money in protection and prevention. Estimates of the negative economic impact (e.g. clean-up costs) of malware are c.$0.5bn for the bigger and more pernicious outbreaks. So there are real economic costs and opportunities in these areas.

The development of “expert systems” has led some to suggest that many professional jobs will disappear. While IT systems can be designed to substitute for humans, there are still real limits to how successful this is, as anyone caught up in automated telephone answering systems can testify. Similarly access to the internet for “expert” information is no substitute for an in-depth education and years of professional experience.  Contrary to the views of an immigration official that “skill shortages of Indian chefs was not a problem since anyone can read a recipe”, execution of many complex professional, technical and craft jobs requires real knowledge and understanding that cannot be obtained by simply tapping in to “Google” or checking out Wikipedia.

2.2.3   Globalisation

Although Globalisation can in may respects be seen as an outcome of technological change moderated by economic and other factors, it is worth considering it as a separate driver for some purposes. A key issue is the way in which the technological changes outlined above have resulted in the economic playing field upon which the UK competes with the rest of the world, including developing countries, being flattened.  As Friedman (2007) argues in his popular book “The World Is Flat“, this is having dramatic implications for the world of work across the globe. Reduced transport and communication costs open up the possibility of outsourcing to take advantage of significantly lower costs for labour and other factors of production. Improvements in global communications are affecting the distribution of work geographically across labour markets on a global scale. There is now much less certainty about where work will be done in the future and by whom. Increasingly there is a single global market for everything, including people. Capital, people and jobs are increasingly mobile and less constrained by national boundaries.

Some commentators such as Brown et al. (2008) argue that this undermines the comfortable view held by some that the UK and other developed economies can retain and indeed expand on the numbers of high level jobs associated with the so called knowledge economy. They paint a much more pessimistic view about the impact of globalisation on the UK and, in particular, stress the low likelihood of the UK being able to reach the promised land of the knowledge economy for all but a few of its workforce.

2.2.4   Demographics

Demographics is the other main driver of change affecting the labour market and economy. Harper (2008) sets out the key trends. Perhaps the most significant change in terms of work and employment is the gradual increase in the average age of the population. Casey (2008) examines the changing trajectory of working lives resulting from this, focusing on what will be the impact of an ageing workforce and longer working lives. His review explores the significant implications this will have for the world of work, employment and education.

It is clear from the reviews by both Harper (2008) and Casey (2008) that the UK, along with many other developed economies, faces a three-fold challenge:

• an ageing population and workforce as the ‘baby boom’ generation approaches retirement;
• increased life expectancy; and
• a falling birth rate.

In combination these open up a gap in the dependency ratio between the economically active and the retired population. The projected change in dependency ratios raises major concerns about the sustainability of the pensions system, and rising costs of health care, especially for the elderly. This is likely to result in the need for later retirement and life long learning.

Casey (2008) highlights a number of tensions. In some respects the long-term trend has been for working lives to contract, with later labour market entry associated with longer time spent in formal education and earlier retirement. However recent concerns about pension provisions have been exacerbated by the financial meltdown associated with the “credit-crunch”, and the talk now is about extending working lives to enable people to build up pension rights. Of course, as economic circumstances pick up, previous trends towards early retirement may resume.

Increases in the average length of lives are also leading to more people considering working longer to fill their lives with something meaningful, as well as topping up incomes and pensions.

Often this involves the need to change jobs (as noted above) the idea of a single job for life has become less and less realistic as an ambition for the vast majority of the workforce. Increasingly it is only the public sector that offers such possibilities.

For those in employment approaching their 60s, the idea of hanging on to their current jobs, thinking “this will see me out”, is often no longer an option. There is an increasing need to think about retraining and re-skilling to maintain employment status.

Even for those that have retired there is often a reassessment and subsequent search for post-retirement work and related activities (possibly in the formal economy but equally in the informal economy, such as voluntary work).

Subject to what might happen via migration, the average age of the workforce is due to rise significantly. Employers will have to adjust to an ageing work force and then learn to live with that older workforce.

Life long learning will also need to focus increasingly on an ageing population and one with different needs.

At the opposite end of the age spectrum, many younger people are happy to operate as portfolio workers, flitting in and out of engagement with the formal economy as it suits them. But as they mature and acquire responsibilities they may need to find and secure a “proper job”, with more security and stability. This may become increasingly difficult in the immediate future as the impact of the recession bites, and previous modes of working become less easy to replicate.

Recent events in financial markets have exacerbated pressures on most pension schemes (both private and public). Many people will have a long and relatively comfortable retirement, but many others may face poverty, loneliness and a growing need for care. This will put pressure on the State and the extended family, forcing many to stay in jobs longer to improve their pensions and to pay for care for both themselves and their parents. However, as argued by Giullari and Lewis (2005), the “commodification” of care does not necessarily meet the emotional needs of the cared for nor the carer.

In addition there are a number of demographic issues relating to migration. Political changes (especially enlargement of the EU), as well as other factors, have made movement across national boundaries much easier. This has resulted in big increases in cross border flows of people. Although they are not so significant in numerical terms as the implications arising from the other demographic factors outlined above.  The UK government has argued that such flows have helped to meet labour shortages, and inward migrants often contribute a dynamic boost to their new countries.  However, the much greater flows of inward migration that the UK has experienced in recent years also pose many problems for the labour market, for education and for policy makers in general.

All these demographic developments pose particular problems for employers. They will need to change their recruitment and retention policies to attract and retain the staff they will need. This may reinforce trends towards more flexible working practices, including less abrupt retirement transitions, and require targeting of groups such as older workers. Another important aspect which can be included under this heading relates to the increasing role of women in the formal economy.

Work, employment and education are shaped by many institutional and political factors which have a demographic dimension.  There are two specific policy changes that are important in thinking about future developments.  These reflect decisions already made; first, to (effectively) raise the minimum school leaving age to 18; and second to raise the official retirement age of women to match that for men. These will be matters of historical fact in the future scenarios to be considered as part of the BCH programme, although as noted elsewhere they may bring with them many problems of adjustment in the short-term.

Another aspect of demography to bear in mind is the difference in birth rates between different groups in the population. Dex (2008) notes that the proportion of children from disadvantaged backgrounds coming through schools is likely to be increasing, since the poor are having more children and the rich are having fewer. For similar reasons the proportion of children from teenage pregnancies may also be expected to increase unless recent trends are halted or reversed. This will all have implications for educational priorities.

2.3      Changing patterns of work and underlying trends in sectors and occupations

The sectoral and occupational structure of employment has changed slowly but steadily over the past century and more. Two centuries ago the economy in the UK (and in Europe more generally) was predominantly agricultural. The industrial revolution resulted in the dramatic advance of manufacturing and industry as a key source of employment. Despite this, just 50 years ago, soon after the establishment of the European Community, much of Europe was still pre-industrial, and heavily dependent on agriculture. This is changing very rapidly and only a few members of the expanded EU now have significant proportions of their workforces employed in agriculture. In the UK it now accounts for less than 2% of all jobs.

Trends towards the so called “knowledge” and service economies have gathered pace over the last 10 years (see the analysis by the Work Foundation (2006), based on Eurostat estimates). The so called information revolution has resulted in the transformation of employment patterns, with much greater emphasis on service based employment, focused on knowledge and information acquisition, processing exploitation and dissemination. This includes a very diverse mix of jobs, ranging from high level professional and managerial occupations to those working in call centres and doing routine clerical support jobs.  According to the Work Foundation, amongst the EU15, employment in knowledge based sectors rose by almost a quarter over that 50 year period compared with an average increase of just 6% for the economy as a whole.  In the UK the overall share of knowledge based employment had risen to around 50%, one of the highest amongst the EU15. These trends are confirmed by more recent analyses, such as in official publications like Employment in Europe 2008, and in more academic studies such as Wilson et al. (2008).

Gambin and Wilson (2008) provide a general review of both conventional and non- conventional views of the prospects for work and employment, including research on possible future trends The conventional approach, based on examination of well established trends and patterns of behaviour, emphasises continuity and the need for education to prepare people for a world in which skills at all levels will be needed to succeed in the labour market. Less conventional approaches highlight the possibilities for both utopian and dystopian visions, which could have rather different implications for education.

Pink (2005) argues that a third revolution is now imminent. The first (industrial) revolution swapped fields for factories, while the second (information) revolution replaced brawn with brains. Pink suggests that the third revolution will involve a shift from “left” to “right-brain” economic production. The “left brain” is mainly associated with logical thinking. This is an area that computers are well suited to deal with. Developments in ICT such as speech recognition, GPS systems, the internet, etc, are making it possible to accumulate, analyse and apply information automatically, so that systems can replace people in many areas of service work, as well as in manufacturing. Systems can be designed to deal with routine enquiries, make bookings, and providing standardised professional advice. Expert systems are also becoming increasingly feasible, with the very best knowledge and practical experience about how to do most things available on-line. In contrast, “right brain” activity is associated with more creative thinking that cannot be so easily replicated by computers.

Gambin and Wilson focus primarily on paid employment in the formal market economy. Dex (2008) considers the future of both paid and unpaid work. Her paper covers some common ground with that of Round (2008) but focussing more specifically on the place of work within the family. They both consider some of the key trends in paid work, home-working and unpaid work They outline some of the links between these trends and social benefits, as well as general attitudes to work. Dex (2008) also highlights the loss of deference in society and the implications of this for schools, as well as a number of more general educational implications.

The trends in informal work are not clear cut. On the one hand the importance of the formal economy is in many ways growing, with women in particular taking an increasingly important role in the formal economy, with rising labour market participation rates amongst those of prime age (25-55). The employment rates for both males and females have also risen steadily in recent years encouraged by the State on the grounds that this is the best way to ensure social inclusion. On the other hand informal activity remains very significant for most people, and in many respects technological change is helping to encourage such activity, while some changes in social values (rejection of materialism, concerns about the environment, etc) are encouraging people to reject market/ capitalist solutions).

Gambin and Wilson’s review focuses on key trends at both a UK and pan-European level. They draw upon the recently published Working Futures results for the UK, as well as CEDEFOP projections which present an initial attempt to examine Europe’s labour market as a whole. Although both sets of projections were carried out before the current financial crisis broke, the emphasis is on longer term trends to 2020.  They suggest that although the growth of the so called “knowledge economy” will continue, it is the services sector more generally that will provide the main source of new jobs, both nationally and across Europe as a whole.

Gambin and Wilson’s (2008) review sets out in some detail the various drivers of change. It is argued that the changes in employment patterns expected largely reflect a continuation of previous long-term trends, driven by technological change and demography, moderated by economic factors. In combination these have resulted in shifts in patterns of consumer demand as incomes have risen.

As in the UK, the analysis confirms that Europe as a whole has been experiencing a sustained shift in employment away from the primary sector (especially agriculture) and traditional manufacturing industries towards services and the knowledge-intensive economy.  This general trend is predicted to continue, albeit with some exceptions as a few Eastern and southern European countries benefit from inward investment in some manufacturing (as a result of their lower labour costs).

Despite these changes, employment in many new EU Member States still relies to a great extent on agriculture and manufacturing, but this is changing rapidly. By 2020, the primary sector (agriculture and mining) is anticipated to decline from almost 8% of total employment in 1996 to less than 4% in 2020.  Manufacturing employment also is projected to fall from 20% to below 15% over the same period.  By that time ¾ all of jobs in the EU will be in services.

The Cedefop projections suggest that over 20 million additional jobs might be created between 2006 and 2020 in the EU-25+ (EU-25 plus Norway and Switzerland). This projection was undertaken before the scale of the impact of the recent financial crisis associated with the “credit crunch”, and its effects on the stock market and the real economy became clear. The main driver of the long term increase in employment is demographic change and the expected growth of the population and labour force. These are unlikely to be radically affected by short-term events.  Assuming that an economic collapse of the scale last witnessed in the 1920s can be avoided, such longer term trends are likely to be reasserted.

The Cedefop projections suggest that the construction sector will only show modest growth with fewer than half a million new jobs being created between 2006 and 2020. Distribution, transport, hotels and catering together are projected to see employment grow by more than 4.5 million over the same period, while non-marketed services (which includes education and health)  are expected to increase by slightly more (4.9 million). Business and miscellaneous services are projected to see the brightest prospects, with more than 14 million additional jobs being created between 2006 and 2020. Although the employment prospects for areas such as banking and insurance are likely to have been dented by recent events, the potential for growth in jobs in areas such as other business services and childcare and social care (which form part of miscellaneous services) will remain strong.

Underlying these trends is an assumption of continued innovation, technological and organisational change, and development of the so called “knowledge economy”. UK and other European governments have argued that future employment prospects and economic performance will depend upon continued investment in human capital to maintain competitive advantage compared with the rapidly developing countries of the Far East and elsewhere. There is increasing recognition of the importance of R&D and innovation in maintaining economic growth and competitive performance. While this is mainly tied up with education at the highest levels, there are implications for education more generally, in particular, the role of those qualified in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects. While these are not the only kinds of skills required, a sound foundation of science and technology is regarded by many as fundamental to continued economic success. These issues are discussed in more detail in Section 2.9 below.

The projected sectoral changes set out in the Cedefop work suggest that there will be significant implications for the occupational (and other) skills needed in the future. Skills can be defined and measured in various ways (for detailed discussion see Wilson et al. (2007) or Leitch (2006)). The most common definitions and measures used relate skills to either the occupation that people have, or to the qualifications they hold. Changes in sectoral structure have a direct impact on the pattern of demand for occupations and qualifications. They are also linked to other aspects of skills (variously referred to as key, core or generic skills, such as literacy, communication skills, etc). These changes are being reinforced by changes in the patterns of employment (skills demands) within sectors. Technological changes are a key driver here, affecting the pattern of demand for skills, these are being reinforced by changes in how work is organised and how jobs are performed within sectors.

A key trend identified is the shift towards demand for highly skilled workers. In general there is a rising demand for higher level occupations, typically requiring higher level qualifications (i.e. at degree level) and various types of generic skills.

The review by Green (2008) focuses upon the changing demands for generic skills. Drawing upon results from detailed surveys of employers, both in the UK and in many other countries, he suggests that generic skills, such as communication skills, problem solving skills, team working and ICT skills, are increasingly valued in modern economies and labour markets. Systematic studies of trends in the UK reveal a number of significant trends in the demand for a range of such skills. This has clear implications for education if the UK is to equip young people with the types of skills they will need to succeed in the labour market of the mid 21st Century.

Almost 40% of those employed in Europe are now in higher-level jobs such as management, professional work, or technical jobs, that typically require a university degree as an entry requirement, and this share is expected to rise further. This reflects the continued growth of the so called knowledge economy.

However, at the same time, there is a clear trend towards a growing number of lower level service jobs in hotels and catering, distribution and other areas. Increases in employment are therefore also projected for many jobs requiring no or lower levels of skills such as elementary occupations. Although there will be fewer jobs for some groups such as agricultural workers and clerks, the continued growth of the service sector will result in many less skilled job openings in areas such as hotels and restaurants.

The changing patterns of employment by sector and occupation are therefore projected to lead to a job polarisation (i.e. job growth at both higher and lower-levels of the occupational spectrum, with the demand for many jobs in the medium-level occupational layer becoming thinner). Technological change (especially ICT) and related organisational changes have increased the productivity of many medium skilled workers, with machines often doing routine and predictable work (both manual and non-manual) that was previously done by such workers. New technologies are less successful in substituting for labour skills where the work involves some element of discretion and response to human interventions, even in work typically done by low skilled workers. There are many tasks that, despite major technological developments in ICT, cannot be undertaken by machines or computers. Consequently the demand for low skilled workers is likely to remain for some time to come.

However the picture is quite complex and other research such as the forthcoming “Jobs Project” report by the European Foundation for Living and Working Conditions suggests that while polarisation has occurred, it is not a uniform phenomenon across all counties in Europe. The polarisation of employment opportunities has a gender bias and significant implications for equality and social inclusion (see Wilson et al. (2008) and Wilson (2007) for more extensive discussion).

However, some authors such as Brown et al. (2008) fear that the changing features of modern capitalism described under the heading of globalisation above mean that future patterns may be less benign, with businesses and capital being much less tied to particular locations and less prepared to accept long term responsibilities to their workforces in a new “flat world”.  This could result in a much less rapid increase of demand for graduates than Leitch and others suggest.

The Leitch Review set up by Gordon Brown considered the UK’s optimal skill needs in some detail looking forward to 2020 and beyond (Leitch 2006 and 2006). Leitch along with other independent reviews (e.g. Wilson et al. (2007) has confirmed that the UK still has a serious problem with basic skills (especially literacy and numeracy). A significant proportion of the workforce still has no formal qualifications. Many lack the basic skills of literacy needed to function properly in a modern economy.  Most commentators suggest that the need for skills at all levels is likely to rise over the next 20 years. The analysis suggests increasing needs for both for higher level skill (with increasing job opportunities for high level occupations (needing degrees, etc) as well as for some lower level occupations (needing basic skills). The need for basic literacy and numeracy skills is also projected to rise (both in terms of the numbers and proportions of jobs where such skills will be regarded as essential as well as in terms of the breadth of such basic skills with literacy in particular being expanded to cover other dimensions than simply oral and written communication using conventional media (see discussion in Jewitt’s Challenge paper).

2.4      Location of Work and Learning

One of the major impacts of ICT has been its potential for changing the location of work. For many years pundits have predicted the end of conventional work patterns, emphasising the scope for remote working and telecommuting. In fact change has in many respects been less dramatic and rapid than they have suggested. Felstead (2008) provides a more considered assessment of the changes that have taken place in recent years and the prospects for the future.

Take-up has been much slower than many predicted, due to resistance from both employers and employees for a variety of reasons (including the need for social contact and fears of loss of control).  The majority of today’s workers still work in offices everyday, despite the fact that ICT allows many of them to work anywhere. Felstead argues that the potential for further increases in teleworking, homeworking, etc, is significant. Reinforced by pressures to operate in a greener fashion, such changes could accelerate in the next few decades, with significant implications for education and learning. Most existing offices are designed to minimize operating costs and preserve hierarchy and status, rather than inspire creativity and fuel collaboration among workers. The level of job satisfaction for most workers in this situation appears to be in decline. There are therefore good reasons to consider alternative approaches. Despite this, Felstead considers that the most likely path will be for much slower change than the advocates of such flexibility predict.

Atwell and Costa (2008) focus more specifically on the potential for integrating personal learning and working environments. Their review covers drivers of the development of present learning and working environments and probable, possible and preferable futures in this area. It considers whether the idea of the “industrial” model of schooling may be becoming dysfunctional, and suggests that long established trends towards the separation of learning and working environments may be reversed. This could have very significant implications for education.

Other more general aspects of the location of work across geographical areas are considered in Green (2008a). Her review focuses on various aspects of location and place. It highlights the way in which location can influence economic prosperity and labour market outcomes, in both positive and negative ways. It also considers how education can help to engender positive virtuous circles, as opposed to negative and vicious ones. There are also important tie-ins here with some aspects of the “green agenda”, including links between the economy, technology and the environment.

In the US and UK there has been a great deal of emphasis recently on creating “Green jobs”.  As EMSI (2008) demonstrate “Green jobs” are NOT occupationally specific. They are more related to sectors, especially on the outcome of particular activities aimed at driving households or other organisations to act in more environmentally stable ways (e.g. reducing energy use or pollution, or improving the environment in measurable ways). These might include various types of construction activity including refurbishment to achieve green objectives; investment in new transport systems, energy production transmission and use, waste management, scientific activities connected with these issues, etc.

Identifying sectors and public and private funding aimed at achieving these ends can help to identify changing skill needs associated with it. In a few cases these may be unique to green type activities (e.g. environmental specialists) but more generally will cover the full spectrum of occupations.

2.5      The meaning of work

Work has many different meanings. There is no single generally agreed definition, either in general parlance or amongst different academic disciplines. A number of the Review Papers commissioned for the Working and Employment Challenge touch on these issues.

Overell (2008) argues that this is a complex matter. For many people work is a key element in defining who they are. His paper focuses on the meaning of work, and identity, covering the quest for meaningfulness and purpose. It includes a discussion of topics such as “craftsmanship”, “professionalism” and the nature of occupational identity. The search for meaning is generally regarded as a positive thing. However, Sennet (1976 and 2008), amongst others, has argued that this is not always the case. The search for meaning can be counterproductive and the cause of unhappiness (see detailed discussion in Overell (2008)). There is also evidence that for some people work is becoming less meaningful and, if some more pessimistic expectations are borne out, this could become more not less common. Brown et al. (2008) argue that the future vision of a knowledge-based economy, with meaningful and well paid work for all, may be a

mirage. For many people such high expectations will be dashed.

The issue of identity is taken up in slightly different context by Bimrose (2008). She argues that the role of careers information, advice and guidance (IAG) is becoming an increasingly important element in helping people to understand themselves and their place in the world. In an increasingly complex economy and labour market, providing well informed information, advice and guidance in a holistic manner is a key element in ensuring a match between what individuals choose to study and the kinds of skills and qualifications that they will need as they leave formal education and enter the world of work and employment. This review emphasises that career guidance is very much at the centre of societal change and can be seen as an attempt to help all individuals attain their potential (not just those at the upper end of the spectrum). This can also help in promoting broader societal aims, including enhanced economic performance. She emphasises that current practice in the area of much careers guidance lacks cohesion and needs radical reform.

Other review papers conducted for the Working and Employment Challenge also touch on these matters. Hogarth and Bosworth (2008), as well as Powdthavee (2008), both begin their approach to the issue from a traditional economic perspective. Work (primarily employment in the formal economy) is seen as the main means of obtaining an income for most people, a necessary “evil” to ensure bread on the table, clothing on backs and a roof overhead.

Powdthavee’s (2008) main focus is on the drivers of “happiness”. In traditional economics approaches work is regarded as something to be avoided (or something to pay others to do), as opposed to leisure or play, which along with income is regarded as contributing positively to “utility”. Powdthavee suggests that recent research suggests that “happiness” is only loosely related to income. If anything it is relative income that is important, but it is clear there are many other factors that influence happiness or “Subjective Well Being” (as measured by asking respondents direct questions about their lives). Such results suggest that there may be a need for people to be better educated about what makes for happiness and well being. This line is reinforced in the latest report from the Children’s Society (2009).

Subjective Well-being is crucially dependent on employment/unemployment. The strongest results suggest that Subjective Well-being is negatively affected by unemployment (separate/ independent of any impact on income). The stigma attached to unemployment is still very strong for most people. The implication is that it is much better to keep people in jobs than give them unemployment benefit.

However, there is some evidence that this may not be the case for a growing minority. The evidence reported by Dex (2008), suggest that the impact may be modified (reduced) if many people in the same area/community are also unemployed. There is also some evidence that some young people have different attitudes from previous generations motivated by a strong work ethic.

The evidence presented by Powdthavee (2008) also suggests that Subjective Well-being may also be negatively affected by long hours of work (raising work-life balance issues), but the links are complex and the direction of cause and effect uncertain.

He also explores the link between Subjective Well-being and education. Again the results are somewhat mixed. Generally, it appears that education may exert a positive effect but it can also lead to unsatisfied expectations. The link between Subjective Well-being and leisure choices is also covered. This includes time spent watching TV, time off work in the formal market economy, voluntary activities, etc). Much of the evidence is mixed, with unclear directions of cause and effect.

Powdthavee (2008) suggests that more emphasis should be placed on understanding what determines happiness in general education, in particular, getting people to understand that higher income is not necessarily the route to happiness. There are however, dangers of a moral hazard and of producing a self-fulfilling prophesy here, with a strong risk of undermining incentives and motivation.

Round’s (2008) review highlights the possible value associated with voluntary work (related to both the care of the environment as well as other people), and suggests some possible links here to green, sustainability and related issues. But the reliance of the market economy on incentive systems, based on rates of pay and images of the “good life” followed by celebrities, suggest that developing alternative life styles and mechanisms for distributing incomes and work may not be so easy. Thus although there may be some tendencies towards less conventional values and attitudes towards work in the formal economy the latter is likely to remain at the centre of most people’s lives in the UK for the foreseeable future.

The management of the workforce also raises a number of tensions relating to issues of control, autonomy and discretion. As noted by Green (2008), there are indications that much work is becoming more closely controlled and that individual workers have less discretion and autonomy over their work. This is closely linked to measures of worker satisfaction and individual happiness.

2.6      Why work is important

The discussion in a number of the reviews (especially Overell (2008), Powdthavee (2008) and Dex (2008)) highlight that the positive aspects of work (income, self esteem) are a key element in well being. While well being is usually not very precisely defined it is generally agreed that it encompasses more than material living standards. Powdthavee’s (2008) review confirms that, while there is no simple answer to what determines well being and happiness, having meaningful work certainly helps, while being unemployed has very negative effects.

The possible future balance between paid and unpaid work is one of the many topics taken up by Dex (2008) who, along with Felstead (2008) and Atwell and Costa (2008), consider likely trends in the location of work (home-working , telecommuting , etc) as well as the location of learning activities. They suggest that, while some tendencies towards increased home-working and involvement in unpaid work will continue, the role of paid work (in the formal market economy) will remain central for most people. Dex’s (2008) review focuses particularly on the place of work within the family. It outlines the links between these trends and social benefits, as well as general attitudes for work. For a minority living off state benefits will remain significant, and general attitudes and motivation to work will be difficult to turn around. Some of these and other more general trends in paid employment are also picked up in the review by Gambin and Wilson (2008). These are discussed in more detail below.

The reviews by both Overell (2008) and Powdthavee (2008) suggest that productive work is one of the keys to well being. Traditional economic approaches emphasise that work (especially in the formal economy) provides income as well as socio-economic status. A job is one of the main means of ensuring social inclusion (see Wilson et al. (2007) for a more detailed discussion of the role of skills in raising individual incomes as well as the probability of finding and retaining employment).

As noted in Wilson (2008) life satisfaction is not the same thing as happiness, but evidence presented in the Atlas of European Values suggests that Europeans generally are quite happy compared with the rest of the world. Having a formal job makes a crucial difference to life satisfaction. Survey evidence reported by Liddle and Lerais (2007) suggests that most people appear to be satisfied with the jobs they have. Even when they are short of money, 84% of Europeans declare themselves very satisfied or fairly satisfied with their working conditions. Conversely concerns about unemployment are confirmed as a crucially important negative influence. Having people in paid work is also of crucial importance for the State (as well as individual citizens) because it increases national output and tax revenues.

As trends towards a knowledge economy gather pace, with increasing proportions of the workforce employed in higher level occupations, many jobs could (should?)  become more satisfying and less routine. Such jobs, employing better educated workers, are generally more vocationally orientated, as well as offering higher incomes, which (all else equal) should increase job satisfaction.  However the trends set out in Section 2.3 suggest that not all jobs will fall into this category. Over the period to 2020 and beyond, there will also be growth in the number of less intrinsically interesting jobs. Not all jobs can be made fulfilling and rewarding. Many will remain relatively undemanding, routine and repetitive, but not subject to substitution by machines.

2.7      Boundaries of work

Overell’s (2008) overview considers various other issues related to the meaning of work, including semantic and philosophical debates, as well as social scientific perspectives. His review poses the general rhetorical question of whether people “work to live” or “live to work”, as well as raising more general issues about the meaning of work and links to happiness and fulfilment. The distinction between work and leisure is in some situations much less clear cut. What some would regard as leisure or even play, others do for a living. Sports-people, artists, entertainers and others earn a living doing what many would regard as play.

But this blurring of boundaries is not solely restricted to professional and related groups. Many other people see their work as a vocation that defines their lives.  This covers wide parts of the occupational spectrum, including many professional and associate professional jobs (e.g. doctors, nurses, teachers, lawyers and scientists). Many of these types of jobs have seen substantial job growth in recent years as highlighted below. Pride in work is not restricted to such areas. For many craft workers there is a natural tendency to take pride in the application of hard earned skills and natural talent. Such aspects can be seen in many other jobs, although perhaps with less emphasis compared with the aspects of drudgery and mindless repetition that characterise many routine and elementary occupations.

If someone is in the right job for them from this perspective, work can cease to be regarded as something to be avoided and becomes play or at least an activity from which positive utility can be obtained. When an activity becomes something that has to be done (often, but not necessarily, associated with externally imposed deadlines and targets and loss of autonomy) there is a danger that it becomes a chore. The classic economic distinction between work and leisure then comes back into play. This can apply as much to the professional footballer and musician as to those in more conventional jobs. Self motivation and discretion, rather than external control and target setting, are probably the crucial distinction. Even without external constraints and demands people can stress themselves by self imposed targets that are not easily achievable. Success at the highest levels in such activities requires considerable effort, perseverance and dedication, all of which are normally regarded as attributes of work rather than play.

This evidence suggests that work and employment are closely tied up with identity and personal perceptions and esteem. Round’s (2008) review emphasises that while work in the formal (paid for market economy) may play a crucial role here, work in the informal economy may be for some people just as important.

Round (2008) focuses upon the boundaries between informal and formal work. The former includes a range of activities from housework, care of family members and DIY through to the so called “black economy” (more frequently now referred to as the “grey economy”), and criminal activity. Round (2008) challenges the “commodification” thesis that argues that market based work in the formal economy is driving out informal activity.  He highlights that even in developed countries informal work remains a key part of most people’s lives. His analysis draws on a range of research, documenting such activity, and highlights some of the possible implications for education and learning. These include the need to explicitly recognise the importance of such activity and especially the difficulties that those working informally can face in accessing education in a Life-long Learning context.

It is clear from the broad range of research evidence reviewed that the boundaries between work, play and leisure, and between formal paid work and informal work, have shifted significantly over the past half century. This is as a consequence of technological developments, as well as changing social values and economic circumstances. Further substantial change can be expected over the next 50 years.

It is also clear that both individuals and society more generally often have ambivalent attitudes to work and employment. On the one hand, as in the more traditional economics approach, work is seen as something to be avoided and minimised.  On the other hand, taking a broader sociological and psychological perspective, work is often regarded as a key element in how individuals are perceived, both by themselves and others, and crucial to feelings of self-worth and personal esteem.

The reviews referred to here, as well as other evidence covered below, suggest that paid work in the formal economy is likely to remain the normal means of generating income for the vast majority of households. However, it is also clear that most people also engage in various forms of informal and domestic work. In some cases this veers into the grey economy (tax avoidance) and, at its most extreme, criminal activity. On a more positive note, voluntary work is also an important part of many people’s lives.

Technological developments, especially those associated with ICT, seem likely to open up many new opportunities for informal activities often linked to virtual worlds rather than conventional realities.

2.8      Work-Life balance

There has been a long running debate on “Work-Life Balance” which is dealt with in Hogarth and Bosworth’s (2008) review. This begins with a discussion about the traditional economic analysis of the choice between work and leisure. It highlights the long term negative trends in the number of hours worked in the formal economy in a typical week, as well as more general patterns of work over the life cycle (increasing length of holiday entitlements and (until recently at least lower) the falling age of retirement)). It also touches briefly on other aspects of working patterns such as some increasing trends to use of unsocial hours/ shift-working. They emphasise general trends towards greater flexibility in working patterns (both from an employer and employee perspective). They consider how these choices have been shaped by technology, as well as economic and other considerations. The latter will include the effect of changing attitudes and values, as well as regulatory interventions by the State.

There are many other concerns about undesirable trends in Work-Life Balance. As noted by Hogarth and Bosworth (2008), there is evidence of increasing stress resulting from work intensity, despite long-term trend reductions in average annual hours worked in most countries, and improvements in accident rates, etc.  Many workers report that work has become more stressful and that their working hours are incompatible with family and social life. This seems likely to be exacerbated over the next few years, as the structural economic changes highlighted in Sections 2.3 are raising the demand for skills and forcing ever more rapid changes in work organisation, content and pace.

A related factor is job insecurity, with (as noted by Dex (2008) and others) general trends towards increases in various forms of less secure employment (such as self employment, part-time employment and short term contracts), many of which seem likely to continue to 2020 and beyond. For many, the idea of a single job for life has disappeared. There will be the need to re-educate and re-train to refresh and update skills and knowledge required to take part in the formal economy, as well as some aspects of the informal economy (see Round (2008) for more details on the latter).

Despite negative trends overall in the length of the official working week, there is still a strong culture in many organisations in the UK of long hours worked in the formal workplace (although perhaps not as extreme as in the USA). A study by the Families and Work Institute, (2005) in the US showed that one in three American workers feel overworked, with half claiming to be “overwhelmed”. Such behaviour is seen to be an indication of dedication. Attitudes in the rest of Europe seem to place a less positive view on such behaviour. Such practices can be argued to place too much emphasis on labour input as opposed to output, ignoring negative impacts on productivity. Attitudes on the continent appear to place less emphasis on “presenteeism” (being seen to be in the office or work environment for long hours).

For some time there has been public policy concern at a European level about extended hours and over-work. The working time regulations are a clear indicator of this. Overwork is argued to be a prime cause of both physical and mental illness. The pace and intensity of work is increasing in the modern workplace. Britain still has much longer working hours than many of its European neighbours. While pressure from the State (especially at European level) seems likely to continue to reduce weekly hours, economic considerations are likely to work in the opposite direction.

The simple division between work and life assumed in much of the discussion of a work-life “balance” is of course debatable. For many people life and work overlap and interact. Drawing a clear cut boundary between the two is not straightforward. As noted in the previous section many people gain meaning to their lives through their work (whether paid or not). However, this does not mean that there are no conflicting tensions between demands from the workplace and the home, either for the individual or the household.

Attitudes to work are also changing. While many may still define themselves by their work, others increasingly define themselves in other ways (for example by the hobbies or other activities they devote themselves to). Work for an increasing number of (especially) younger people is just a means to an end. A recent survey for Business Week in the USA is indicative.  The results suggest that whereas for the older generation (55+) 28% live to work, for those aged 25-34 this falls to 16%. The vast majority of the younger generation work to live and they do not appear to regard the vocational aspect of working as so important as older generations did.

2.9      Education and work

There are many links between work, employment and education. Much of the recent socio-economic discourse on this topic has emphasised the role of education (and training) in preparing people for work and providing them with the skills, knowledge and attitudes they need to succeed in the workplace (see Green (2008) and Bimrose (2008)). Education has always been seen as having a crucial role as preparation for work. This has various aspects, including social conditioning and instilling of attitudes, as well as imparting knowledge and work related technical skills.

There is a large body of evidence suggesting that education makes a huge difference to individual employment prospects (see the various Skills in England assessments conducted annually since 2002 which provide a comprehensive review of the research evidence (e.g. Wilson et al., 2007)). Better educated and qualified individuals are much more likely to find and retain jobs. They also tend to end up in better paid jobs. Individuals investing in the acquisition of qualifications tend to have higher incomes and increased productivity.

As noted in Wilson (2008), previous generations of schools in Europe and the US can also be seen as aimed at producing workers suitable for the factories, offices and other workplaces (instilling discipline, attitudes and basic skills). Educational systems in the second half of the 20^th Century were designed to deal with the relatively standardised requirements, a homogeneous population and the relatively well established social order of the post-war industrial society. These circumstances are however changing, which has some significant implications for education.

Of course, education has many other roles in addition to preparing individuals for work:

• Understanding of  the world and society;
• The ability to take part in civil society (citizenship, social capital);
• Broader cultural and social aspects;
• A consumption activity (learning for its own sake);
• Contribution to the “knowledge, innovation, research & development (R&D) triangle”.

The latter is especially significant for long term economic development. The links between education and work and employment are not just a one way process, with work and employment implying a demand for certain types of education.  Education, through its role in the “knowledge, innovation, R&D triangle” plays a crucial role in determining the path that scientific technological, economic and social developments take. Competitive pressures from globalisation are placing an increasing emphasis on these links. Ensuring the right skills are in place to be able to innovate and compete at the leading edge of scientific, technological and economic developments has become a top priority for governments across the world.

Education can therefore be seen as a key driver of change rather than simply a passive response to the needs of the labour market and the economy. Education’s role in innovation and technological change is reviewed in Bosworth (2008). He argues that, despite the assumptions adopted in some economic models, technology does not simply fall like manna from heaven. It is dependent on investment in human capital in the form of R&D and knowledge.  The R&D, knowledge, innovation triangle is a key element in the drive for improvements in productivity and economic competitiveness. Education, especially at the highest level, plays a key role in this process, with Universities being key players in much research, development and innovation. Bosworth’s review focuses on the nature of the relationships involved, and on the implications for work, employment and education.

Bosworth (2008) emphasises that this implies a demand for:

• Those qualified in STEM subjects (possibly quite small in number but playing a crucial role);
• Management and leadership;
• Entrepreneurship.

A particular concern highlighted in a number of official reports in both the UK and other countries relates to the crucial role of those qualified in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects. This is emphasised in a growing body of research evidence reviewed in Wilson and Gambin (2008). This emphasises the fact that much investment in new technology is dependent on a solid base of science, technology, engineering and mathematics personnel. Although not all technological developments rely on such skills, they do lie at the core of most technologies. A firm foundation in such disciplines is probably a key element to achieving prosperity. The implication for education of encouraging the study of such subjects in school through to University is therefore an important issue that needs to be addressed. Bosworth (2008) also emphasises that it may be important for the general population to have a sound grounding in such disciplines, if they are to be able to critically appraise scientific issues and to make informed judgements about products and services based on such knowledge.

Innovation therefore needs people with management, leadership and entrepreneurial skills plus STEM and related skills (Wilson and Gambin, (2008). But it is not just about a core elite.  For markets to grow, a well informed population is needed to act as customers for the new products and services produced.

Many of the reports reviewed in Wilson and Gambin (2008) suggest that there is evidence that not enough young people in the UK are choosing to undertake science and engineering studies. This may be a problem across Europe more generally (see Wilson, 2007). Many young people shy away from difficult technical subjects such as mathematics, physics and engineering. There are also concerns about vicious circles arising from a lack of good teachers in these areas, further discouraging young people to take up such choices. Careers guidance and advice also has an important role to play here.

The “knowledge triangle” requires a sound science, technology and engineering foundation if the UK (and the EU more generally) are to compete successfully in the global economy. This requires high level skills in this area. Countries such as China are currently investing much more heavily in these areas.

Of course it is not just about science and technology, other aspects such as innovation and design in the more creative and cultural industries and services will also be very important. The UK has many people working very successfully in these areas. There will also be a large range of jobs in the future associated with the care of the environment and care of people. But much of this is underpinned by a sound understanding of science, technology (especially ICT) and engineering.

Other Challenges within the BCH programme are also covering the issue of general “creativity”, but it is also important to retain a more technical or economic definition of “creativity”. The common conception of “The Creative Industries” seems to be about making films or music, creating art, fashion and design. The work of people like James Dyson, Alec Issigonis, Frank Whittle and Barnes Wallis. The significance of innovation in engineering, technology and science can be crucial and world changing. See for example Christiansen’s (2008) work the Innovator’s Dilemma/Solution, etc. Such innovation and creativity in industry more generally has an economic impact that dwarfs impact of fashion-design and the “creative” media. But combing science and art disciplines is not easy. All too often school timetables work against this, with physics and other pure sciences set against the arts and humanities.

The role of education in encouraging entrepreneurship and improving management and leadership is also a key feature of much recent research, (see Tamkin, 2008). Having the right resources and skills is of little value if they are not managed appropriately. Tamkin’s review emphasises the importance of leadership and good management, as well as entrepreneurship (see also Wilson and Gambin, 2008).  These factors become increasingly important for economies to compete successfully in global markets. This applies both at national and local levels, and in public and private sectors.

Based on this general body of evidence, governments from around the world have tended to place increasing emphasis on the importance of the economic benefits of education (based on the idea of investment in human capital). This has often been linked to ideas about the knowledge economy and it has been suggested that the UK needs to invest more heavily in skills to take advantage of these trends.

Some have questioned whether or not the evidence represents cause and effect. Ideas such as credentialism, and the so called screening hypothesis, suggest that education does not actually increase productivity, as implied by the human capital model, but simply helps to identify more able individuals. Others (Brown et al. 2008) suggest that future employment growth in the “knowledge economy” may be a mirage, and that the demand for the highly qualified could fall off, as competition from abroad undermines the advantageous position that older graduates have held, and as huge increases in the supply of well qualified people across the world swamp the market.

The idea that initial education can be provided at the start of people’s lives that will serve them until they retire has become increasingly outmoded. Unwin (2008), focuses on the ongoing need for learning in the workplace, especially the more vocational aspects. She emphasises not just the general need for life long learning but focuses on what workplace learning might look like; what kinds of leaning practices will be important; who will pay; who is responsible; and delivery mechanisms.

Brown (2008) takes this a step further, focusing on the idea of developing expertise and moving beyond a focus on workplace competence, assessment and qualifications. His paper focuses on trends in the specifications of “expertise” in different jobs and what people in them are expected to do. It highlights problems with a competence based approach, especially one focused around sectors, emphasising the complex nature of many jobs, which cut across discipline and sectoral boundaries. He also highlights the importance of collaborative working and supporting of others in the learning process, rather than an emphasis on individual achievement and acquisition of qualifications.

The workplace is also an important site for learning. Education does not just take place in classrooms and at the beginning of people’s lives. Unwin (2008b) considers these issues in some detail. The quality of much learning in the workplace is very variable and existing practice may ingrain inequality.  When done well, it can lead to self development, and the formal education sector may have some real lessons to learn. In many cases, however, employers often resort to external means to obtain skills rather than trying to grow them in-house. Recent upward trends in use of migrant workers in many sectors is a clear example of this (see MAC 2008) for more detailed discussion.

Some individuals see real relevance to learning at work and a chance to shine at work. But the trends are mixed; there are falling numbers doing apprenticeships of the traditional kind and concerns about the quality of many new modern apprenticeships. Problems in finding places for apprentices are only likely to be exacerbated by the current recession, as employers cut back on both employment and training.

It is also worth recalling that educational establishments are also themselves workplaces, but that there is often failure to follow best practice in approaches to learning and related matters (see the discussion in Unwin (2008b) for various examples).

Keep (2008) provides a broader overview of the links between the labour market, skills and education. This focuses upon a number of key trajectories (both historical and over the future) in the labour market generally, including: occupations, work organisation and management. As well as changing employment patterns it also considers pay, earnings and incentives, highlighting a growing polarisation between and within occupations. Keep argues that this has significant implications for the incentives for investment in education. His paper considers the different types of incentives to learn and invest in education, both financial and non financial. He suggests that for many people there is a lack of incentives for learning which needs to be addressed urgently. He concludes by drawing out the implications for economic and distributional outcomes, including who benefits and why, and how education might influence this. The paper highlights some of the problems of barriers to access such as class, (path dependence, implications for identities) and financial resources.

Of course, in principle, education can help to challenge and reduce such barriers. The present liberal, free market orthodoxy relies on market forces to determine rates of pay (although the UK does have minimum wage) imposed by regulation. In some other countries, (e.g. Scandinavia) social values impose a much narrower distribution of incomes and rewards, with a broader way of valuing the work people do than the size of the pay packet. This raises the question of whether further government intervention is necessary in the UK to change market signals (e.g. raising the minimum wage or trying to changing social attitudes towards inequality, as in the Scandinavian model). It also raises the question of whether or not the educational system can help to reinforce or replace weak market signals.

The UKCES is currently undertaking an in-depth review of investment in training and education by both individuals and employers, looking at the barriers and rewards to such investment. This is still to report but may throw some further light on some of these issues.

2.10    Other aspects of work that are also changing

Other sociological factors, governance, culture and environment are also key drivers of the changing face of work and employment. Associated with the broad changes in employment structures described above are many other social and related changes. Liddle and Lerais (2007) set out some of the underlying currents accompanying these structural changes. These include increased emphasis on individualisation, household restructuring (including increasing divorce rates and more people living on their own), and the changing role of women in the formal economy. Other aspects include some indications of movement away from consumerism and increased concerns to meet the new challenges related to the environment. As both Liddle and Lerais (2007) and Dex (2008) note, there are many complex links with the Welfare System and concerns of how to deal with problems of inequality and social exclusion.

The paid work ethic lies at the core of the present Government’s social and economic policies. Policies such as Welfare to Work and the New Deal, emphasising the importance of employment opportunities for all, have been central to its strategy to assist a whole range of disadvantaged groups, including the long-term jobless, lone mothers and the disabled.  All these groups have been encouraged to join the formal economy and take up paid work. Active participation in paid work is presented as a crucial test of social citizenship. A small minority of the population have resisted or avoided such engagement. This raises concerns about how to achieve a set of shared values as well as ensuring general consent to established rules and laws. A significant number of people are dependent on benefits, and given the current state of the economy this is likely to become of increasing significance in the short-term at least. This is also linked to issues of child poverty.

A number of the Review Papers suggest a significant increase in various forms of flexible working, (e.g. Dex, 2008). The term flexible working has been widely used and encompasses a vast range of different practices (for an extensive review see Bosworth and Wilson (2007)). This includes various aspects of time and location, patterns of working, as well as contractual status. A key issue is whether flexibility refers to the interests of the worker or the employer. Flexibility for one may mean uncertainty and precariousness for the other. Traditional discussions of flexible working cover aspects such as part-time working, self employment and sub-contracting all of which have shown some tendency to rise in recent years (see Gambin and Wilson (2008) or Bosworth and Wilson (2007) for more detailed discussion). More recently new technologies have facilitated the development of remote forms of working (including home working, although the latter has a much longer history, quite separate from the effects of ICT).

Many commentators and some researchers have emphasised that “jobs for life” are no longer the norm. But there is still a remarkable stability in most working lives in the UK according to more considered research. Taylor’s (2004a) review of the ESRC programme of research in this area confirms that these patterns are changing but only very gradually.  Undoubtedly many things are changing and 50 years from now things will look as different as today’s labour market does from that of 1959, which was dominated by industrial forms of working (focused on primary industries and manufacturing rather than services).  But many features will remain unchanged.

3.      Implications for the Beyond Current Horizons programme

3.1      The Children’s Plan

The DCSF launched the Children’s Plan in 2007 (DCSF, 2007). In considering which of the trends and issues identified in Section 2 are most likely to impact on education and related matters it is helpful to highlight some of the key points set out in the Plan. Its key aims and objectives are based around:

• Supporting parents and families in bringing up children;
• Enabling children to fulfil their potential and develop as far as their talents can take them;
• Enabling children and young people to enjoy their childhood as well as to grow up prepared for adult life.
• Ensuring children’s services are designed around the needs of children, young people and families rather than around professional boundaries;
• Prevention of failure and identification of potential problems in advance.

The Working and Employment Challenge is especially critical for the second of these, focusing on what employment and work in adult life might actually mean in 2025 and beyond. It also has a critical role to play in the last issue, helping to identify what might be the big employment risks in future, and highlighting how education (and training) can help to avoid failure and disappointed expectations, including avoidance/prevention of children ending up as “not in education, employment or training” (NEETs), and prevention of disengagement and exclusion from society as adults.

3.2      Stylised facts: Key Trends and Issues

3.2.1   Work

Much of people’s daily lives is taken up by work, be it paid or unpaid or in the formal, informal or grey economy. Work is crucial to the economy and society as a whole. Directly or indirectly it meets both basic needs for food, clothing and shelter, as well as luxury goods.  Directly it generates the goods and services produced or enables them to be purchased. Indirectly it satisfies many non-materialistic needs, some of which are often achieved as much by the act of undertaking it.

Many people attach value to work for reasons other than its immediate economic benefits, including the fact that it helps to establish identity and provides a sense of purpose, self worth and self esteem, as well as offering opportunities for social interaction and personal relationships.

Despite the traditional economic view of work as a “bad thing” (something to be avoided or minimised because it takes up time that could otherwise be spent in more enjoyable (leisurely) pursuits), many people (possibly the vast majority) enjoy work, particularly its social side. For some people, work provides them with an important social network and may provide a main avenue through which they meet friends and potential partners. This idea of work as a social venue/hub is likely to continue to be important.

Many people also view work as having intrinsic values, helping to define who they are. Most people appear to be satisfied with their work. Productive work is considered one of the keys to well being. For people who are intrinsically satisfied and fulfilled by the work they do, there may be a blurring of the line between work and play/leisure.

Some people take up work that defines them – such as religious figures, teachers, and health/medical professionals. Some people take up work in activities that are generally viewed as leisure activities – such as professional athletes, people working in creative sectors (musicians, painters, actors, etc).

Others may also find internal fulfilment in having a job that creates a finished product of which they are proud (e.g. craftsmen, artists, etc.). For people who are driven by intrinsic motivation, and for whom fulfilment is considered a priority, work that is satisfying is as important for their well-being as well as its economic productivity.

On the negative side, work may be an activity in which some people participate only to meet the general societal expectation that they should work. Such people may resent the fact that they have to do menial jobs to secure a relatively poor income. Others may resent the fact that they lose part of their incomes in the form of taxation to support others who are able to work but do not do so. There are complex relationships between work, income and status that have bearing on such attitudes.

3.2.2   Key drivers of change and implications for employment patterns

The two key drivers affecting work and employment will be technology and demographics, but these will be shaped by political, social and economic factors. Globalisation, it has been argued, is best regarded as an outcome of these inter-related factors.

Changing patterns of international trade will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the fortunes of many sectors and significant implications for the jobs and incomes of many people. This is not a zero-sum game however. Success for other countries does not necessarily imply negative consequences for UK employment. However, the UK like other developed economies will need to constantly strive to keep pace with developments in other countries (let alone move ahead in the game).

Technological developments mean that many products and services can be produced at ever decreasing cost by ever fewer people. This raises important issues about control of such technologies and how incomes and rewards are distributed.

There are many dramatic technological developments on the horizon which will have significant implications for employment and work, including how it is done and where it is undertaken. Those linked to ICT are likely to be especially significant. Although in some respects ICT may be reaching its natural limits, and is regarded by some to be “played out” in strictly technical/scientific terms, its implications for employment and work are far from finished. The potential for further dramatic changes in productivity are likely to be significant for the foreseeable future.

But the take up of these developments is not inevitable. Just because something is technically feasible does not mean it will happen. What does happen will depend on both the benefits and costs. These may be both economic and social, and include various constraints and obstacles to be overcome. It is important to avoid adopting a technological determinist view. What will happen will be tempered by social and economic factors and behaviours.

There is often an important element of path dependence when technologies are taken up, decisions and actions made early on may predispose economies and societies to particular paths.

It is also important to recognise the “lump of work fallacy”. There is not a fixed amount of “work” to be done that technology can take over, inevitably leaving people previous employed in doing such work “unemployed”. Society can reorganise itself to create new jobs that are valued and desirable.  Markets are powerful mechanisms that can help to ensure societies and economies can adjust to the shocks caused by technology and other factors. Previous mechanistic extrapolations of the impact of ICT have failed to recognise these factors, and as a result grossly overestimated the negative impact on employment, etc. In principle, there is no limit to the “work” that can be done in caring for each other, and caring for the environment. The problem is in designing institutions and systems that can provide the incentives and mechanisms to ensure that such work is valued.

3.2.3   Conventional trends and views

Formal paid work in the market economy is likely to remain crucial to the well being (income and employment) of the great majority of families and households in the UK for the foreseeable future. Formal work will continue to be both the key source of income and status, as well as a key element in identifying how people see themselves.

Informal work will however also remain important, and this can have rather different requirements for education and learning than those from formal work.

Patterns of work in the formal economy will continue to change, with many trends obvious.

• Specialisation, use of capital, implementation of new technologies, etc, will result in continuing structural changes by sector (growing importance of services and “weightless” activities associated with the knowledge economy.
• Demand for skills will continue to rise in many areas, but there may be some polarisation.
• There will be increases in demand for many higher skilled occupations and for formal qualifications, especially at higher levels. But not all jobs will require a PhD; polarisation means rising demand also for occupations such as sales, personal service occupations and unskilled low skilled work.
• There are also strong trends in patterns of employment status (towards increased part-time working, self employment, temporary work, etc).

But many trends will probably be less extreme than some commentators and the media expect, for example in areas such as homeworking and teleworking, etc, which have grown much less rapidly than predicted and which will probably continue to change only slowly. There is likely to be a growing need for generic skills, such as:

• literacy;
• numeracy;
• communication;
• team working;
• problem solving;
• IT skills;
• management and leadership.

Falling hours worked per life time (part of the fruits of technological change) will continue to be taken in the form of greater leisure (less time spent doing work in the formal economy). Key trends in this area include:

• a long term trend of falling average hours per week working in the formal economy;
• falling days per week (longer weekends);
• falling weeks per year (longer annual holidays);
• falling years per lifetime (earlier retirement).

Although there are some opposing trends, such as presenteeism (and the long hours culture), as well as staying on at work until a later stage in the life cycle because of extended lifetimes and concerns about pensions.

While projections are always hedged with caveats the most likely outcome over the medium to long term seems to be that globalisation will continue the patterns summarised in Section 2.7 (and described in much greater detail in Wilson et al. (2008 and 2009).

Subject to avoiding a major slump, the most likely developments in employment patterns present a reasonably optimistic picture for the UK.

• Technological change will result in structural changes by sector, and changing demands for occupations and different types of skills:
• These structural changes, will involve job losses as well as new jobs;
• There will be rising demands for many skills (as measured by occupations; qualifications (especially at higher levels); and key/core/generic skills of various kinds);
• But there is also likely to be polarisation, with growth in numbers of general and more mundane service jobs, as well as jobs for those working in the knowledge economy.

Technological change will also open up new opportunities for employment (as well as learning) in:

• Activities related to the environment and climate change;
• Virtual worlds.

Ways of distributing income will continue to evolve (including the use of both market and non market mechanisms).

The boundaries between work, (formal and informal), rest, recuperation, leisure, play, are probably becoming more blurred.

There is increasing recognition of the importance of R&D and innovation in maintaining economic growth and competitive performance. While this is mainly tied up with education at the highest levels, there are implications for education more generally. In particular, the role of those qualified in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects in the R&D, innovation, knowledge triangle is regarded by many as key. This has particular implications for education at school level, where there are serious concerns that the UK may be falling behind its main competitors. Of course science and technology are not the only disciplines that are important for innovation and economic success.

3.2.4   A critique of some less conventional perspectives

While there is general agreement on the main drivers of change, there is much less of a consensus about the direction and scale of changes that may take place and how this may affect the worlds of work and employment. There are of course many possibilities. These include much more pessimistic scenarios associated with global economic meltdown or other catastrophes (some of which are highlighted in BCH (2007)).

The greatest pessimists see a spectre of mass unemployment, growing insecurity and widening social divisions.  On the other hand, there are some who point to much more optimistic possibilities, with technology and changing attitudes having the potential for liberating many employees from dreary, dull, repetitive and degrading work.

Such alternative visions are rarely based on any systematic theory and usually lack any kind of historical perspective or sound empirical foundation. Undoubtedly very significant changes are possible which could have profound implications for many individuals and groups in society. But final outcomes will be moderated by inertia and stickiness in many institutions and behaviours. The final outcomes will almost certainly be less dramatic than either of these two more extreme views suggested here.

The most pessimistic pundits paint a vey gloomy picture, involving a complete breakdown of market based systems, breakdown of basic institutions, loss of trust/faith, anarchy, much greater central control, and dictatorship. Such apocalyptic visions of mass unemployment worldwide, while not completely beyond the realms of possibility are not very likely (although perhaps a little more so in the light of recent events in financial and related markets than would have been thought the case by most people a few months ago).

The populist argument is that capitalism has failed. Undoubtedly capitalism is at bay, and there have been immediate pressures for greater government intervention and regulation. However, as noted below, for all its flaws, the market based economy remains the only serious game in town, with the capability of allocating resources and distributing incomes on a world wide scale.

Some have seen the recent events in financial and other markets as heralding the end of capitalism, but to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of its death seem somewhat premature! The problem is in finding robust and generally accepted mechanisms for linking paid work to incomes. Although capitalism and free markets are currently getting a bad press, they probably remain the best (most efficient) way yet invented for allocating resources amongst competing needs. For it to work effectively, capitalism, and indeed any alternative voluntarist system, requires a set of legislative and socio-economic structures that the vast majority of the population are prepared to sign up to. The alternative, state control and intervention, has severe limitations and in extremis can lead to very undesirable political as well as economic outcomes (as illustrated by the performance of Stalinist states).

It is clear that the present economic situation remains very uncertain and many economists think that the recession will be much deeper and longer lasting than most governments would hope. The possibility of a long lasting slump cannot be ruled out. This would have significant implications for the labour market, the economy and public finances.

As Round (2008) notes, some have argued that there is a growing resistance to “commodification” of everything and ask if there is an alternative to the conventional market based system. They argue that governments and communities, by de-coupling production and consumption from the commodified realm, could in principle open up alternative development paths, with possibly significant implications for education. Round (2008) argues that work in the informal economy is of great (possible increasing) importance for many people.  For those that earn their main income in the formal economy, informal work can nevertheless be very significant, while for others the informal can be their only way of obtaining income and status. Work in the informal economy can take many forms, including increasingly opportunities opened up by ICT.

One example of this is the suggestion by thinkers such as Castronova (2005) that it is possible to develop such systems in “virtual worlds” rather than what most people regard as the “real world”. The use of virtual worlds for such purposes is only just being explored but there are already indications that there are significant possibilities for achieving real world outcomes (as measured in real dollars) from activities carried out in virtual worlds. While there are significant examples of such activity in some parts of the world, these remain very tiny compared with activities in the real economy and are likely to remain so for immediate future, although they do appear to offer considerable potential for some work and employment, especially in areas such as training and education in situations and circumstances that are difficult or expensive to replicate in the real world.

Another potentially important area of divergence from conventional economic trends and trajectories relates to the Green agenda. Growing awareness and acceptance of the role of mankind in climate change is causing many to question key assumptions underlying the capitalist model (consumerism, materialism) and advocating significant changes in values attitudes and behaviours. If these continue to gain ground this could have implications for both the economy and labour market, as well as education.

The more pessimistic views about employment are centred on three main concerns:

• Technological change will displace jobs;
• Global trade will undermine UK businesses;
• The patterns of jobs created will not match the skills available.

The first concern has been around since the Luddites. While it is undoubtedly the case that technology displaces some jobs, there is no inevitability that employment as a whole is reduced. Such a notion is based on the “lump of work” fallacy. There is not just a fixed lump of work to be done that automation can take over. In the long run, free markets will adjust to find useful things for people to do, whatever their skills. The initial predictions undertaken in the 1970s about the possible impact of the ICT revolution were for mass unemployment in the 1980s, (e.g. Jenkins and Sherman, 1979). This turned out to be misguided. More considered analysis, which recognised the importance of market adjustments, came to much less pessimistic conclusions, although recognising the negative aspects for those directly effected (Whitley and Wilson,1987).

Similar remarks apply to the issue of where economic activities are undertaken. There is not a fixed amount of output that is to be divided up between countries. World trade is not a zero-sum game. Improvements in standards of living for the Chinese do not necessarily imply a reduction for those in other countries. Not all jobs can be outsourced to India or China (or done by a machine). Many services which involve personal contact fall into this category. Health care and teaching/ mentoring involve a high level of emotional intelligence. Other jobs involve the application of creativity and imagination. While such jobs are not exclusive to the developed world there are factors which favour their location in particular places. As Florida (2005) emphasises, these preferred locations score highly on the three Ts – Technology, Talent, and Tolerance. Education has an important role to pay in developing such characteristics.

Some pessimists have also argued that those lacking the capabilities to acquire the skills needed in the knowledge economy will struggle to find employment because of the falling number of unskilled jobs in the UK. This ignores the fact that current evidence suggests the number of low skilled jobs is actually rising in some areas.

Others have argued strongly that the “knowledge economy” is a mirage in terms of generating many new jobs in the UK. Brown et al. (2008) suggest that, as a result, there could be a significant excess supply of UK graduates.  They suggest that the knowledge economy (with the vast majority of jobs falling into this category) is a mirage, and that therefore graduate targets set by the government are misguided.  The rest of the world is catching up fast and also wants the high-end jobs. In this type of scenario, they argue that the UK economy would struggle to achieve full employment and maintain sufficient levels of high quality jobs. To some extent this view contains some elements of the notion of a fixed lump of work, and assumes little scope for market adjustment. However, it does suggest that the optimistic picture set out in the Leitch targets and the Lisbon Agenda may be much harder to achieve than many politicians would like to suggest.  Recent events in the world economy are likely to exacerbate these difficulties.

3.3      Key dimensions of uncertainty

Technology: The uncertainties here are not so much about technology itself, but more about its possible impact on the labour market and economy, as well as education. Many technological trends are not particularly uncertain, but their impact on the economy, labour market and education may be.

The possible impacts are likely to be moderated by economic and social factors. The role and significance of virtual worlds may be one particular area of uncertainty.

The Economy: Many trends are quite robust and almost inevitable, but there are significant uncertainties about the overall success of the UK economy in the face of increasing globalisation and the current recession.

Possible key dimensions and uncertainties here relate to:

• how quickly the world and UK economies recover from the current economic crisis (is this a temporary blip, similar to previous recessions, or a more fundamental shift that results in a much longer term depression in economic and labour market prospects, more like the 1930s than the 1980s);
• how successfully the UK economy will compete with other countries the global economy (in particular, whether or not the aim of securing employment in high level jobs linked to the government’s vision of the knowledge economy is realistic).

Market versus Regulation: Linked to uncertainties about the economy are political uncertainties about the way society is managed and controlled. Some have suggested that the recent financial crisis and subsequent impact in the real economy signals the demise of the free market economy. Others argue that markets remain essential to both efficiency and economic prosperity (as well as political freedom).

The key dimension here is:

• the operation of free markets; versus
• a command economy (centrally administered by the nation state or possibly major multinational corporations).

Social/political values: The market versus regulation dimension also has a parallel with other more general socio-political values. These include:

• Individualism versus collectivism;
• Materialism versus humanism;
• Work to live versus Live to work;

3.4      Potential implications for education

3.4.1.  The Meaning of work

Liddle and Lerais (2007) note that, “there is an issue of ‘respect’ in our societies for those in poor quality jobs”. Given that education is increasingly regarded as the main route into a decent job, this message can come across as very threatening to those groups in society who have traditionally failed in the education system.

It has been argued that we need to find ways in society of valuing ordinary jobs more.  Some countries (e.g. Nordic countries) have managed to achieve this.

At present, as Brown (2008) argues, there is an unhelpful hierarchy of formal qualifications, with many people being excluded and unvalued.

This is also linked also to pay, and concerns about equality and social exclusion, but it is not obvious what alternative there is to the market mechanism. The Nordic countries offer some hope in this direction but they have also had severe problems in recent years, so there are no easy solutions.

Overell (2008) raises the question of how to encourage people to do things well and to take pride in their work at all levels. Licences to practice may be part of a solution. Better job design to try to instil meaning (at societal, state and organisational levels), is also important. This requires a greater awareness of the significant trends that technological change and globalisation are imposing on the labour market. It also involves the need to equip management (including policy makers at a macro level) with the knowledge and information they need to help structure society and design jobs for all people emerging from the educational system. Moves beyond the traditional idea of the educational system passively producing people with skills suitable for use in the economy and society. It will also involve preparing all individuals to make the most of the opportunities they face and talents they possess.

Most people agree that there is a need for more and better (more fulfilling) jobs. The EU New skills for New jobs articulates such a vision, but it is not clear that it is attainable (at least in its more naïve version, with Europeans cornering the market in high level, knowledge economy jobs). The polarisation of jobs in terms of skill requirements seems a more likely outcome.

This raises the question of what can be done to equip people best for this brave new world. To some degree societies can also make choices about the mix of jobs available by setting and raising standards. Some countries such as Finland (for example) have been able to raise the proportion of higher quality jobs and raise basic standards of literacy throughout their population.

It is clear that not all jobs will be knowledge based. Polarisation implies a need for many lower skilled workers as well as highly skilled and qualified “knowledge” workers. Education needs to prepare people for this reality, as well as developing high level STEM graduates. But focussing on the elite and the rest, risks real  problems of division, exclusion and alienation. There could also be major problems of mismatch and disappointed expectations.

Education terminating at 16, 18 or even 21 is unlikely to equip people for what they will need in the whole of their lives in the 2^nd quarter of the 21^st century (if it ever did). There will be need for frequent updates and new learning. Education needs to equip individuals in such a way that they are empowered to deal with whatever they may face. It is important to recognise the need to avoid the idea that it is possible to plan in precise detail. But this does not negate the need for detailed projections of what the world might look like. On the contrary these are an essential component of the labour market information needed to guide and inform individuals so that they can make informed choices and decisions. But the priority is for distributed decision making not mechanistic central plans. Having said that, society, the State and employers do have some scope to structure jobs in general terms to meet the expectations of learning empowered citizens, as indicated by the experience of the Nordic States. There are broad social and political choices to be made, as well as organisational and individual ones.

3.4.2.  Work and happiness

One way to happiness is to do more fulfilling things at work. Cognitive action also keeps people more active generally, which has other benefits.

There is a need to make the population more generally aware of these findings, and to educate children and others better about what determines well being. This includes factors such as:

• Emotional intelligence;
• Networks and family;
• Health;
• Moderation of expectations and aspirations regarding income, etc. (or at least more realistic and reliable information on the possibilities facing most people.

The aim should be to enable young people in particular to make well informed decisions.

We also need better thought out policies on adult education, reflecting the changing nature of work and employment (recognising the increasing rarity of “a job for life”) as well as the demographic and other trends that are increasing the need for a Life-long Learning perspective.

3.4.3.  Work and values

The balance between freedom (unfettered markets) and regulation (command economies / central control) may be changing as a consequence of recent events linked to the “credit crunch”. However, recognition of the importance of market mechanism means that we are unlikely to see a reversal of the general trends towards decentralised decision making. Technological developments generally also point in the same direction, with knowledge and information being more widely distributed. However, there are some countervailing tendencies, with concerns that some multi-national corporations (and maybe some Nation States) will maintain an undesirable level of central control.

Recent trends have resulted in a much greater focus on individualism, self and materialism / consumerism (Thatcherism). There has been an apparently inexorable move away from collectivist / social values. But this may contain within it the seeds of its own destruction. Unrealistic aspirations and expectations, generated by the media and others, may lead to a backlash.

There are some signs that these trends may be reversible. Growing concerns about the environment and world poverty are one indicator. The political dimension may also be showing signs of a demand for a change in values, with the election of Obama in the recent US presidential election.

There is a case for education to play a key role in this process, by helping to inform citizens about these issues, so they can make well informed judgements.

One aspect of the increasing focus on the individual and self that is particularly pertinent relates to possible tensions between women’s rights and priorities (including the right to follow a career in the formal economy) and children’s needs for parental care (Children’s Society (2009)).

Another aspect relates to citizenship, and ties in to more general social values; valuing what all others do (ensuring greater mutual respect). Much more could be done to change perceptions of the value of different types of work (especially in certain vocational areas and low level skills).

General social values are not fixed. As exemplified by Scandinavian countries, they can be changed in a direction that promotes greater equality in terms of both pay and status, emphasising the need to provide a living wage for important but low skill/low status jobs. There are often cultural aspects to this (e.g. the value in France, placed on high quality food, which has implications for status of occupations such as waiters and chefs). It is conceivable that the recent financial meltdown could help towards a reassessment of fundamental values.

3.4.4   Work-life balance

Education also has a role to play in the area of Work-life balance. Traditional individual work/leisure choices (where work is assumed to be bad, something to be avoided) are morphing into more general family choices and lifetime decisions.

Various trends are significant here. Reduced average weekly hours worked, parental rights, carers rights, etc, are all becoming increasingly regarded as important and appropriate.

There are a number of specific educational implications:

• The first relates to education as a sector of employment (in principle, work-life balance issues should be both recognised, and policies put in place to ensure  a reasonable balance – in practice, these seem to be more common in the breach than the observance in the educational sector!);
• Education might be expected to help individuals to understand and achieve a good work-life balance, including facilitating occupational and social mobility;
• Lastly, a good work-life balance opens up the possibilities for additional demands on the educational system, as individuals take up possibilities for undertaking additional education, either as an investment or a consumption activity.

3.4.5   The demand for skills and formal qualifications

The general consensus is that there will be a growing need for more highly educated people to meet the needs of the knowledge economy.  But, Brown et al. (2008) warn that it is unlikely that this will be the case for all jobs and suggest that there is also likely to be significant growth in jobs that require no or low formal qualifications.  There is a real danger that the targets set by politicians for those acquiring higher level qualifications will lead to excess supply and dashed expectations. China, India, etc are catching up at top end of the job spectrum, and are also looking to expand high level, knowledge intensive employment, competing directly with the UK for such work.

However, there is no limit to human ingenuity and the possibilities for developing new products and services that require such inputs. There is no fixed lump of such work to be done. Nevertheless there is a need to reconsider the proposed expansion of graduate qualifications when the economy may not keep pace with the need for such qualifications, with the risks of discontent this will create in the workforce, as well as potential moves further away from gender equality. Brown et al. (2008) argue that there has been a failure of policy makers (both in the UK and in Europe more generally) to recognise reality. Aspirations to become a high value added, purely knowledge based economy may be unrealistic and unachievable.

It is also important not to see education as having a purely passive and reactive role.  While much of the discussion is about people getting the right skills for jobs that are likely to emerge, there will also be opportunities for people to develop their own jobs their own work. Encouraging people to take a more proactive role, and encouraging entrepreneurialism can help to fill any gaps that might emerge in terms of job opportunities generated by the existing population of employers. In many respects the climate for people wanting to start businesses is likely to be made easier by technological developments.

All of these possibilities could have very important implications for the curriculum.  At present State schools run a common curriculum up to 14, yet the scenario sketched out by Brown et al. (2008) and others suggests  very different demands for skills (with polarisation, across both occupations and geographical space).

Keep (2008) also stresses the importance of incentives. A polarised earnings distribution makes for weak incentives for participation in education for all but a lucky few. This poses some significant challenges for educational policy. Simple changes to the curriculum are unlikely to resolve this. Major changes in priority may be needed which recognise the need to cope with very heterogeneous demands for skills. These may well be strongly polarised, with very different impacts at upper and lower ends of the educational spectrum.

On the one hand, there will be increasing demands for highly creative, technically skilled, knowledge workers. On the other hand, there will also be many jobs requiring limited skills and low expectations and ambitions. For many individuals who are less successful than average in terms of educational achievement, these are the only jobs they may be able to find. The old 11+, which marked 80% of the population as failures at aged 11, has now been replaced by a more general divisions at 14+ and 16+ between those able to go on to become graduates, and the rest. And even for many of those that do achieve graduate status, the kinds of job opportunities on offer may fail to match their high expectations.

In this case supporting such people to develop own businesses (and therefore their own jobs) may become of increasing importance. This would place increased significance on measures to support and encourage entrepreneurial activity both within education and more generally. The experience of previous recessions suggest that many graduates unable to find jobs in traditional areas of graduate employment take on new identities and develop new niches (Purcell et al. (2005)).

3.4.6   Demands for specific skills

The trends broadly summarised in Section 3.4.5 are identified in much greater detail elsewhere in this document and in the large body of research aimed at anticipating changing skill demands. While there are some concerns about the quality of such information (as a result of inadequate investment in pertinent data and methods (both at a UK and a broader European level)), a number of key trends have been identified. The Leitch (2005 and 2006) reports identify gaps in skill requirements for 2020 and beyond:

• at the level of basic skills (including literacy and numeracy);
• for intermediate skills (including the lack of a sound vocational base); and
• at higher level relating to management and leadership.

Basic skills

At the level of basic skills, too many young people are still not acquiring the most basic skills, including literacy and numeracy. Many fail to acquire the fundamental skills at primary school, and are turned off and disengaged almost from the start. This requires intervention at primary level to break the vicious circles of disadvantage and deprivation that underlie these patterns. In many respects this is no different from what is already happening with Sure Start/ Early Years qualifications/ Numeracy & Literacy strategies. What is distinctive about the projections is that these needs are likely to intensify, both in terms of the numbers and proportions of jobs that will require at least these minimum requirements, as well as the scope of those basic skills (which are likely to include a broader definition of literacy than simple oral a written communication skills).

Intermediate skills (especially vocational skills)

Not for the first time in reviews about the UK’s skill needs, Leitch has identified a gap at intermediate level in the skills profile of the UK. Intermediate skills refer here to a broad group of skills below graduate level but about basic levels, especially various vocationally orientated skills (both technical knowledge and practical experience). Tomlinson (2004) highlighted the need for greater emphasis on vocational courses at this level, arguing for parity of esteem with more academic courses. The Government’s response was to introduce a range of initiatives, including Train to Gain, Modern Apprenticeships and the new Diplomas. However, as noted in the following sub-section, for a variety of reasons, these initiatives seem unlikely to provide the long-term solution.

Management and leadership

Management and leadership are crucial to economic performance. Many UK managers remain poorly qualified.  Although it is not clear that formal qualifications such as MBAs, etc, necessarily improve matters, it is clear that the economy will demand more of this particular cadre of workers in the future.  There is a need to encourage more talented people into management and leadership courses.  The importance of using methods of education that emphasise teamwork is also stressed.  There is also a need to explore failure and the lessons to be learned from it, as well as successes. However, there are also some key questions to be addressed about whether or note effective leadership can taught.

STEM qualifications

There are some particular concerns about adequate supplies of STEM graduates. This involves getting policy in schools as well as higher education right. It is as much about getting the right quality of students undertaking such courses as simply boosting or maintaining numbers.  According to (XXX) not enough of the most able students are choosing to undertake STEM subjects.  There is a need to prevent young people closing out the options of undertaking STEM subjects too early. There are also concerns about perception of what work in these areas might look like. The definition of the term engineer in many young people’s minds is often muddled and few have clear picture of what work of a professional scientist or engineer is like. There is a need for better informed and impartial careers guidance.

Other issues relating to the demand for skills

Green (2008) also highlights the need for greater emphasis on communication skills (including interaction with others) as well as formal qualifications. This suggests the need to incorporate learning on emotional literacy, interpersonal skills, and negotiating skills into learning curricula, especially at further and higher education levels. IT skills are also likely to remain in high demand, so the educational system will need to continue to supply learning on IT skills and internet use.

The Leitch reports emphasised the need to focus on the demand for skills. This begs the question of demand from whom? The term is often ill defined and can be used to refer to the demand for places on courses of education and training by individuals as well as the demand for skills by employers to undertake their day to day operations. The UKCES (as reported in HCIUSSC (2009)) has emphasised that it is the needs of employers that is the key issue (rather than demand from individuals, which is in many respects more of an indicator of the eventual supply of skills (as they acquire qualifications and accreditation)). But others have questioned whether employers always know what they need. Hogarth et al. (2009) suggest that some employers may fail to recognise that they need to upgrade the skills of their workforce in order to meet competitive challenges. The quality of jobs and learning is often not given a high profile by many (unqualified) managers, who like people to be in the same mould as themselves.

There are number of other key issues that could also be raised here. Not just about whether employers know what they want, but also the question of who should be responsible for delivery of sector specific skills. However, this goes beyond the remit of this particular paper. For further discussion see the ingoing review by UKCES (2009).

Finally, there are also some significant issues related to the demand for skills linked to the Educational workforce, including concerns about recruitment and retention of requisite numbers, and quality of teachers and lecturers at all levels of the system. In some cases there are problems of vicious circles (for example, poor or inadequate teaching in science and technology or maths) discouraging students from taking up these subjects, leading to shortages of well qualified people in these disciplines and difficulties for the public sector to recruit and retain high quality staff in these areas.

3.4.7   A misplaced focus on formal (academic) qualifications?

The debate at both national and European levels about changing skill needs over the next few decades tends to focus upon formal qualifications, especially in a UK context on academic qualifications. This is understandable as these are relatively easy to measure and monitor. But these raise some important questions about whether this is the correct focus. Not all education and training is formal. Much learning takes place informally and has significant value. This raises questions about whether or not the focus on academic qualifications is desirable and whether a more diverse set of skills/competencies should be encouraged? It also leads to questions about whether less traditional teaching and learning approaches, less focused upon the acquisition formal credentials might promote greater engagement amongst some individuals who find traditional, formal education and schooling more difficult.

Until relatively recently, early school leavers could find employment, even if they had few or no formal qualifications. It is clear that those who leave early without good qualifications are increasingly finding themselves marginalised. These problems are more serious for boys as they are more likely to leave school early and without formal qualifications. Although the current generation of school leavers is much better qualified than its predecessors, a significant proportion have still not reached upper secondary (NQF level 3) standard.

Current plans will effectively lead to the raising of school leaving age to 18 in the UK. This is likely to lead to growing problems of dealing with those less academically inclined children who are already disengaged. There is an urgent need to re-engage those for whom a traditional academic approach has little relevance. Traditional class-room based instruction simply does not work for many such children.

In the UK there has also been a general move away from emphasis on vocational education and training (exemplified by the government’s rejection of many of the recommendations of the Tomlinson (2004) report). The new diplomas currently being introduced still place a huge emphasis on theoretical rather than practical work, despite claims to the contrary. There is still a real problem in getting most employers to engage with this agenda, and finding work placements remains a key stumbling block. There are also still real issues of lack of parity of esteem for the vocational route. For many it is still perceived as a two tier system, with FE still being widely regarded as inferior to schools (sending  the wrong messages about the value of vocational courses compared to more academic ones, see (Coffield, 2002).

There is a need for much greater employer engagement. In many cases employers are being discouraged from getting involved by increasing levels of red-tape and  demands for certification. Many skilled people are not allowed to train or pass on their experience and knowledge because they do not have the formal qualifications/ credentials demanded in the FE sector. There are also difficult questions about how to provide practical work experience and knowledge for young people. More and better incentives are needed to encourage employers to release people. Current ways of connecting education and work are often not working well.

There is an increasing awareness of special needs of many youngsters (with growing numbers with dyslexia, ADHD, speech and language problems). Such children need special support. Many will never achieve NQF level 3. Increasing mental health issues amongst the young also have significant implications for happiness, stress and eventually for burdens on the NHS.

Brown (2008) questions whether initiatives such as the Lisbon Agenda, and the current government’s emphasis on achieving a 50% HE participation rate, are moving things in the right direction. He concludes that a radical rethink is needed and that schools and other providers of education should seriously consider whether the focus on acquiring formal qualifications is misplaced. He suggests that more emphasis needs to be placed on progression measured in other ways, and on encouraging collaborative working and support for the learning of others, which some might view as “cheating” and working “off task”. Of course this type of initiative raises problems about how to measure success (and failure), and in particular the difficulties of avoiding the free ride problem in measuring contributions to team work. Brown suggests that social expectations around what constitutes success and what constitutes a contribution to an activity are likely to change, facilitated by a range of technologies that can support new forms of assessment and data capture. This will change the context in which educators are operating.

Too much focus on formal qualifications for all can increase perceptions of lack of self worth for those that are non-academic. If they have not achieved a C+ in GCSE in English and maths at 16, they are branded as failures, leaving them wondering what is the point of education? There is a case to be made that school leaving should not be so tightly linked to age, nor to the achievement of particular types of qualification.

Employers also need to be encouraged to look at young people “in the round”, not just at their formal qualifications. Partnership with employers is needed, but many are not interested in opening up their workplaces for work experience, apprenticeships and work-place based learning generally (sometimes for good reasons, health and safety, economic factors, etc).

There will be a continuing need for innovation in the classroom and in educational establishments. The priority is to find ways of making education relevant to young people and the changing face of work and society. See, for example, the innovative practices of the Walker College (2008) and other schools such as Barrs Hill in Coventry. Universities have long recognised the value of learning by teaching. Young academics learn and consolidate their knowledge by taking classes. Older staff find that teaching helps them to extend and develop their research. But this is much less practised in other parts of the educational systems, yet it can work equally effectively at all levels. In Barrs Hill school in Coventry, for example schemes such as “language ambassadors” take the opportunities presented by a multicultural school population to allow children to take pride in their culture and language by teaching younger children in nearby primary schools about these things. This promotes self esteem and self confidence, as well as multicultural understanding and valuing others. Encouraging such youngsters to take GSCEs in Persian or Hindi also helps to encourage recognition of the value of such knowledge and skills, yet such schemes and practices remain exceptional rather than the rule.

Other examples of innovative practice include Motorvate which is aimed at those of a non-academic bent. It involves teaching young people about road safety, how cars work and are maintained, as well as giving them an opportunity to learn to drive. It is aimed at reducing accidents and joy-riding amongst young males, helping them to learn about the law, highway code and the impact of car crime. Such schemes can help to encourage pride in work, as well supporting the learning of others.

Assessment in the workplace is generally less focused on formal qualifications. Workplace based assessment reconnects teaching, learning and assessment. It helps to focus on Life-long Learning and active knowledge transformation for a practical purpose. The work of Brown (2008) and others suggest that the current focus on formal qualifications and credentials is misplaced and seriously question whether low level qualifications (especially post 16) add any real value for those that acquire them. Brown (2008) argues that the focus in the Lisbon agenda, etc, on moving people upwards through well defined skill levels (defined by formal qualifications attained) is misguided.  Progression in the labour market should be the main policy goal, but this is less easily measured and achieved by policy focused on the control manipulation of the supply side (numbers on courses and numbers acquiring formal qualifications).

Qualifications are frequently seen as an end, whereas they are often more of a means to an end. They provide an indicator of moves towards a more knowledge based society and knowledgeable population. Because they are relatively easily measured and monitored they tend to be the main focus of attention rather than what happens to the individuals in the process of acquiring them such as changes in individual competencies. There is a need to reconsider what 11 or 16 years of initial formal education is for, and to draw out the implications. For example, this might involve placing more emphasis on:

• Supporting the learning of others (collaborative working less focus on personal achievement);
• More open ended solutions, rather than  following a strict and narrow curriculum;
• A curriculum more focused on work skills;

There is often an implicit assumption that if we get education for young people right then all will be well.  But a sole focus on initial education is inappropriate. As emphasised by many authors, learning does not stop at 16 or even 21, and people need to be equipped to continue life time learning.

There are some important technological aspects to this. Knowledge and information are in many respects becoming more widely distributed, although there are also some countervailing pressures, with some aspects of this being concentrated in just a few organisations. The more general trend of increasing distribution of knowledge is making it much easier for individuals to tap into what they need, as and when they need it (just in time). This has significant implications for learning and knowledge acquisition.

Some people question whether the industrial (factory) model of schooling is becoming dysfunctional and out of date. There are some indications that personal learning and working environments may be converging. This may affect the traditional dichotomy between academic (brain) and vocational (manual) work and learning.

Learning is increasingly becoming integrated within the workplace. Learning does not suddenly stop after 11, or 16 years of initial education. But the implications of this for formal education could go in various directions, depending on how policy and schools, etc, react and adjust to these possibilities. For example, State schools may adjust to the new environment by proactively embracing new technologies and taking on new roles, or they could find themselves becomingly increasingly replaced by learning opportunities offered in the workplace, or privatised educational establishments, including virtual organisations.

3.4.8   Life-long Learning

Workplace learning, Vocational Education and Training (VET) and Life-long Learning  are likely to become more closely connected. VET is especially crucial for the middle group of jobs and people left out by the polarisation of skill structures identified in Section 2. Vocational education and training should not be seen as remedial.

The trends identified in Section 2, including the continuing rapid change in the structure of employment and jobs and the ever escalating and changing skills required in most jobs, means that there will be a general need to prepare the workforce for jobs that require continual learning, and to prepare the appropriate training courses to meet these learning needs.

There are other related educational implications:

• The need to recognise the greater number of significant work life transitions that most people will have to make;
• The need for up-skilling throughout lifetime;
• The need to focus on individual skill sets rather than occupational skill sets;
• The importance of mastery of a knowledge base;
• The importance of working in teams;
• The importance of supporting the learning of others;
• The need to allow for transfer between contexts;
• The potential for exploitation of virtual world, technologies, etc.

3.4.9   Location of work and learning

Work is increasingly being detached from fixed and traditional locations, but the process is slow and the pace has frequently been exaggerated. Collective office space is becoming increasingly commonplace (hot-desking, etc). Home-working may be expected to grow, but probably only modestly (see Felstead (2008)). Maybe around 20% of workers by 2025 will be working from home or hot-desking.

But this kind of working requires particular skills and discipline. There may be some significant educational and learning implications, in particular helping young people and adults to learn to cope and prosper in such a world.

Working at or from home relies heavily on time management skills, but also on being able to draw boundaries between work and non-work time to have work-life balance. People who need to do this kind of work may need to be psychologically profiled and trained to check they can cope with the isolation and boundary issues and recognise emerging health problems. This includes educating people to occupy space rather than possess it.

It is also worth emphasising that learning occurs as a result of participation: “bumping” into people results in informal learning opportunities. Working at home can lead to isolation and problems associated with this, although hot-desking can sometimes lead to more such interactions than is the case for those working full time in isolated offices.

3.4.10             The importance of place

Place is an important dimension in the links between work, employment and education. Education can play a key role in helping to break local vicious circles of deprivation and disengagement. Obviously this is not the sole or necessarily even the key factor. Infrastructure, including transport, plays a key role (Green (2008a)).

For many multi-national companies the centre of gravity is moving away from the UK to elsewhere. Such companies, especially if they are foreign owned may recognise no strong links to local economies and populations. Their commitment to the UK may be modest, although foreign ownership can have some benefits such companies often having greater emphasis on High Performance Work Practices (HPWPs), etc.

Educational providers can play a more active role in local economic development.  Examples of US and Australian experience suggest that this can be an important part of strategies to set up and nurture local skills as set out in Section 2 (see also Eberts, 2008, EMSI, 2006, and Green 2008a)).

Many citizens and employers do demonstrate a strong loyalty to “place” and take civic responsibility very seriously. Such attachment to place can have strong influences on local economic development issues, and needs to be tapped. There are lessons to be learned from other countries about the ways in which educational establishments such as FE colleges can better serve their local areas by getting actively involved in economic development issues, rather than seeing themselves as simple passive suppliers of education and training. In the East Coast of the US, for example, colleges are actively involved in trying to ensue that conditions are right for inward investment into their localities by providing the right kinds of education and training both for initial labour market entrants and for older people. This includes those that may have been displaced from employment as some jobs are made redundant by technological change or other aspects of globalisation (EMSI (2008)).

Ethnicity and diversity brings new challenges at a local level (with links to past patterns of inward immigration. Concentration of ethnic groups in particular localities is increasing, with Leicester soon to be the UK’s first major city with the white indigenous population forming a minority.  There are a growing number of businesses run by members of the ethnic minorities, but this does always not guarantee a rosy picture for employment conditions for ethnic minority groups. Such employers are not always paternalistic (e.g. the recent Primark example of clothing suppliers exploiting their workforces).

Eberts (2008) argues that place specific policies are needed, focused on the demand for skills by employers (e.g. encouragement of HPWPs, Richard Florida type amenities; regional partnerships; and involvement of local FE colleges in economic development). He highlights a number of key features:

• Business as the main customer should be the main focus of this aspect of education;
• Outcomes and objectives should be agreed, quantified and tracked (SMART);
• Local organisations (including educational institutions) need to become more entrepreneurial, problem solvers, and stakeholders;
• The need for good labour market information, including projections to allow markets to adjust, as individuals make more informed decisions in a rapidly changing global economy (but note that this is not about trying to mechanistically and centrally plan to match skills supplies to developing needs).

Eberts (2008) also advocates education and training for disadvantaged groups to assist social inclusion and enhance social mobility. Particular initiatives may be needed in local labour markets with high unemployment among ethnic minorities and other disadvantaged groups. There may be particular need for effective training in manual skills, vocational training and courses starting and managing one’s own business (which includes coping with uncertainty and managing fluctuating income) for those displaced by the technological and other changes. It may also be necessary to give greater consideration to the welfare system’s response to handling uncertain income flows.

3.4.11             Educational demands from the informal economy

For the great majority, involvement in the informal economy is in many ways growing in significance, although the formal economy is still the main source of income and self esteem for most households. In the short term, economic circumstances (the recession) may force more people down the informal route (including the grey economy (and in extremis, criminal activity)). Informal work could be a more preferable alternative for many than employment in the formal economy in low skill, low wage jobs.  This involvement can be based around community/networking/ caring for others, as well as for the environment. This includes various types of voluntary work.  ICT also offers some new possibilities, including the exploitation of virtual worlds, although as noted in Wilson and Gambin (2008) the use of ICT also brings with it some risks of negative consequences.

All this needs changes in public policy (e.g. attitudes towards and support for entrepreneurship and innovation at a micro-level, as opposed to that carried out by large corporations), and the need to operate a more socially orientated economic/ humanist model.

It is a moot point to what extent entrepreneurship can be taught. However there is certainly a role for education in explaining to young people the importance of entrepreneurial activity in generating new goods and services and jobs. According to the review carried out by Wilson and Gambin (2008), there is evidence that the UK has a generally good record in providing a good environment for “doing business”, and for generally encouraging entrepreneurial activity. One key area of concern is that there appears to be a considerable fear of failure. This may be another area where education can help, by emphasising that risk of failure is an inevitable consequence of such activity, and encouraging a realistic appreciation of the potentially great rewards as well as risks of such activity. There is considerable evidence that people can learn from failure and education can be refocused to encourage this.

Other implications for education include:

• Making young people more aware of possibilities of the informal economy;
• Encouraging awareness within schools of young people currently engaged in caring for other family members (which affects their own education);
• Rethinking how the educational system might make contact with such carers to ensure their educational needs are met (ICT might help);
• Ensuring Life-long Learning, provision and access to those involved in the informal economy as well as for those in the formal economy;
• Identifying those in ethnic minority communities, working in family businesses and others disengaged from the formal economy who are missing out; again ICT may offer new and better ways of doing this.

There are also possible implications linked to trends in unpaid (e.g. voluntary) work. These include:

• Educating the younger generation about the costs of care for older adults, what care is, and how society should solve this growing problem of care in an ageing society;
• Educating for more equal gender balance in the amounts of informal care hours for older adults provided by households;
• Formal flexible working arrangements for employees to cope with care needs of older adults;
• Greater attention to child care provision to make sure quality grows and becomes more uniform and accessible in all areas, through systems of quality control, or licensing or inspections;
• Attention to the uniformity across local areas in quality and quantity of after-school and holiday care for school aged children;
• Training up a care workforce for older adults, which might be heavily dominated by immigrant labour, for quality care provision.

There are also implications for those living off benefits (which is likely to become of increasing significance in the short-term at least). Educational policy needs to be aimed at breaking the cycle of disadvantage that is often at the root of this. Family breakdown is of course an issue across all socio-economic groups, but as Dex (2008) it is especially severe in terms of its impact on children for those at the bottom of the income distribution. Dex (2008) suggests a number of specific policy implications:

• Parenting classes could be important in tackling low achievement and the effects of disadvantage (possibly involving the development of “all age” schools, thereby fostering a culture of Life-long learning).
• Parenting classes could be made mandatory for prospective parents when pregnant, as part of the antenatal ‘clinic’.
• Early intervention into the cycle of disadvantage at pre-school ages 3 -4 is likely to remain a top priority, and it may be necessary to spend more on this if the percentage of such children from disadvantaged families goes up as seems likely.
• The majority of children coming into compulsory school (5+) in future are likely to have had some child care, but only a minority will have had full-time care. This may require remedial action.
• Given evidence that suggests that children are disadvantaged by marital breakdown and lack of male role models, high divorce rates and high lone parent rates will lead to many children suffering emotional problems during school life, which will require remedial action.

3.4.12             Values, attitudes and motivation

A number of the reviews have highlighted changing social and economic values and how this relates to both work and employment and education.

The loss of deference in society generally is also reflected in schools. Such trends seem likely to continue. This has implications for how schools are organised, how they are run, as well as the aims and manner of conducting school inspections. There may be some lessons here from industry, where evidence from the workplace suggests that participatory models produce better results.

Other aspects include:

• Education to tackle bullying cultures;
• Balancing control and autonomy in the classroom to help better equip children for the world of work;
• Educating for identifying and handling stress;
• Recognising that the premium on learning and self direction will be high in the workplace;
• Education to promote personal development and Life-long Learning.

As noted in the recent report by the Children’s Society (2009), young people in particular are now bombarded continuously by the media to take part in consumerism, driven by fashion and other factors. It is argued there, and by others (e.g. Bauman, 2008), that there has been a steady shift towards self-interest and individualism, and away from altruism and societal values. Such discussions highlight the dichotomies between:

• Individualism versus collectivism;
• Materialism versus humanism;
• Those who work to live versus those who live to work.

The market economy and liberal values have come in for considerable criticism recently, especially following the excesses associated with the credit crunch.  The problem is finding some other generally acceptable mechanism, other than free market forces, to allocate and distribute incomes and jobs.  Consumerism is what keeps the economic world going round, and keeps most people in the UK country employed.

3.4.13             Careers guidance and advice

The dramatic structural changes taking place in the economy and the labour market will have significant implications for the types of jobs that will be available in the next 10-20 years, as set out above. This will result in the need for much better labour market information to inform citizens about these possibilities. This is recognised in the New Skills for New Jobs Initiative that has recently been launched by the CEC (2008).

Education at the beginning of the 21^st Century now faces the challenge of much more demanding requirements from employers; heterogeneous populations (with ethnic and language diversities and very high expectations); and a much less well established social order. All this has to be dealt with in the face of rapid technological, demographic and economic change (including in the short-term the imminent prospect of what could still turn out to be a major recession). The demands of the new knowledge economy, in the context of what Friedman (2007) describes as a “flatter world”, open to much sharper and immediate competition from many directions, may require a very different set of attributes in the second quarter of the 21^st Century.

To keep pace with these developments, there will be a need for greater emphasis on retraining and lifelong-learning to keep workers up to date (given the pace of change).

Technology mediated learning may help to achieve this, both in public and private sectors.

The need for effective and impartial Careers Information and Guidance is also growing, and this is likely to become even more important. But existing practices are too often constrained by outdated and outmoded systems and approaches.

Careers Guidance needs to be more focused on empowering individual choices, based on robust and unbiased information about the realities of prospects in the labour market.

The incentives built into the system at present may not be working as intended. Too many children are being given advice to stay on at school to follow academic course of study for which they are unsuited. The incentives are often wrong, focused on putting “bums on seats” not on the child’s best interest.

Finally, increasingly there is a need for a Life-long Learning perspective.  People will need more assistance at later stages in their lives, not just during initial education.

3.5    Concluding Remarks

The role of education in the world of work and employment

The overall aims of education are to impart knowledge and understanding. A key rationale for this is to help people to participate in the economy and society, and to make the most of the opportunities they face, maximising their potential.

Key trends in the world of work and employment

Much change is in prospect in the world of work, employment and education.  But equally there is often enormous inertia to be overcome. The world will look very different beyond 2025, but many elements will be familiar and similar to today. Continuity is just as important as change, although it is the latter that tends to be the prime focus of attention in the media and popular accounts.

Many of the more extreme changes in ways of working and employment patterns that have been identified in Section 2 may well take place, but they will remain of relatively minor significance in quantitative terms. For example, the significance of teleworking and use of virtual reality, will probably remain modest compared with the more conventional “9-5″ workplace environment. This is likely to remain the norm for many. The media tends to home in on the more dramatic and extreme possibilities rather than a more sober and measured assessment of what may actually happen and its real impact.

Previous extrapolations based on technological determinism have often been way off the mark. Projections made in the late 1970s on the expected impact of ICT were for the paperless office and mass unemployment, neither of which has come to pass.  Many of the more extreme technological extrapolations currently being mooted will undoubtedly suffer the same fate.

There will also be a considerable diversity of experience, and many differences between individuals and across employment types. Social exclusion and concerns about limited social mobility remain areas of key concern.  As William Gibson has famously put it: “The future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed”. One of the key roles of education is to help address these concerns.

Technological change is also resulting in the potential for dramatic changes in the possible locations – for both work and learning.

The influence of the media and communications will increase, (focusing on star/ celebrity effects, etc), causing problems in managing expectations for many young people, whose personal experiences are unlikely to match the aspirations encouraged by such role models. Trends towards emphasis on self and individualism are likely to continue.

Implications for education

Education will have a key role to play in placing more emphasis on helping people to understand society and the economy (and their role in it). This may include placing greater emphasis on social values, and helping people to gain a broader understanding of what makes for happiness.

The importance of reliable and robust labour market information and intelligence, and sound and impartial careers guidance and advice is likely to rise.

Many of the employment trends outlined in Section 2 have strong implications for education, for education providers and for educational policy makers.

• The changing patterns of jobs will require different types of skills and knowledge;
• a need for general management and other professional skills;
• there will be a requirement for some very high level technical skills, notably in STEM subjects;
• vocational education for more young people at entry level.

But there will also be a continued need for many lower skilled jobs. Education will be needed to help individuals understand their position in the world of work. This is in part about recognising the importance of lower skilled jobs, as wells as high skilled ones.  It is also about empowering individuals, helping them to learn to take advantage of opportunities and assist social mobility.

The general demand for formal qualifications will continue to rise, driven by both supply and demand side pressures. The importance of STEM subjects will also increase, although the cadre of people needed who are qualified at the highest level will probably remain small. However these will need to be of the highest quality to compete internationally. The importance of a range of generic skills, including communications, team-working, leadership, management, business, entrepreneurial skills, is also likely to grow.

However, for many individuals the benefits of formal qualifications will be questionable, and the value of a conventional academically focused curriculum dubious.

Education will be needed not just for work, but for life:

• this includes work in the informal economy;
• it will need to be available at all ages: Life-long Learning;
• it will need to be flexible (to help ensure work life balance).

A case can be made that education is currently too “front loaded”, with too much emphasis being placed on initial education (age 5-21). There is a need to develop new mechanisms for spreading the emphasis more evenly over a life time, with rights to sabbaticals, etc, as people have longer and less predictable working lives. This raises important questions about how the present institutional framework and systems could best adapt. There are, of course, often significant problems in designing new systems, especially incentives (which often have unintended consequences). There are also many important considerations from the point of view of the individual, if a life time of learning is to be achieved, not least the question of finance.

There are a number of crucial switch and transitions points in individual’s lives (from school to work, from one job to another, job and employment shifts linked to family formation, and the move from work to retirement, etc. These are often traumatic. More thought needs to be given by policy makers to what the State can do to ease these transitions; (including financial oiling of wheels, and financial entitlements to allow investment by the individual at later points in the life-cycle (but noting the previous problems with voucher type schemes).

All this raises doubts about whether the current “factory based” models (schools /colleges), providing education and training to large numbers at the same time, are the right ones.

It also raises practical questions about what the State can do to help individuals “follow their dream”. The business advisors model is not very practical; but NIACE have suggested the need for a regular “learning” heath check. There is some evidence that, when done well, personal advisors can help (as in Connexions).

New technology will also have significant implications for the educational process and delivery (ways of learning; plagiarism (a growing problem for assessment), where learning takes place, etc). There will be a continuing need for innovation and to find ways of making education relevant to young people and the changing face of work and society.

Needs of the economy

This will have various aspects, including a distinction between the needs of those parts of the economy most linked to the global economy and those more focused on meeting the needs of more domestic and local customers.

The evidence assembled in Section 2 emphasises (inter alia) the importance of:

• the basics (literacy and numeracy), which are the keys to learning to learn;
• skills in the use of the internet and ICT are also key elements;
• lifetime learning, which will be a key feature, although much of this may be informal or conducted in the workplace rather than in formal educational establishments;
• “DIY” or self-directed learning will increase in importance and in principle has enormous potential (but it also has limits);
• “just in time learning” (e.g. searching for information and knowledge on the internet as and when required), which be increasingly be the norm;
• managerial, leadership and entrepreneurial skills;
• the need also for managers to have soft-skills including recognition of the value of their work-force.
• diversity (including the effects of changing demographics, which will have some significant implications, with particular groups (older people, ethnic minorities)  imposing special demands on the system);
• the need for an understanding of other cultures and knowledge of languages in the context of the global economy (recognising that just as there are many students (and migrant workers) coming to the UK, there is an equal potential for more few UK students and temporary migrants going to other countries).
• some analysis emphasises the likely increased demand for high level skills and formal qualifications, but others question whether this increase in the  quality of work, will benefit more than a few;
• if these more pessimistic scenarios prevail, then for many work may mean less autonomy, less time to think, inequity, stress and related mental health issues;
• there are also issues about vulnerability, with those least able to adapt being most at risk.

This will all raise many questions for those involved in providing and delivering education and training:

• How best to ensure educational opportunity for everyone throughout their lives;
• How to help those who fail to benefit from the present system (especially the socially disadvantaged);
• How to ensure that everyone has the skills they need to find and retain a decent job;
• How to identify and remove any other barriers to success for disadvantaged groups;
• How to identify the skills people will need;
• How should people be advised and guided to make the right choices;
• How can education be used to empower individuals;
• What needs to be done to ensure that education and related activities will help to shape the future in a way that benefits society as a whole?

There are also a number of educational workforce issues.  These include:

• the stresses and burdens placed on teachers and lecturers by administrative overload, and emphasis on measurement and monitoring;
• status and pay.

Overcoming inertia:

There are many sources of inertia in the current systems and procedures for delivering education and training. This reflects vested interests, and other factors leading to resistance to change. These affect:

• Government (including DCSF/DIUS), which some see as part of the problem as well as the solution);
• Employers; and
• Individuals.

At the institutional level, it is imperative that there is a broader recognition of the role of education as preparation for work for all those in the population, not just the top of the academic ability range.

For employers, a clearer view is needed of what the role of work should be in a life-time of learning and how this is likely to change. They also need to articulate more clearly how their demands for skills are likely to change.

Finally for individuals, more help needs to be given to children (in particular) so that more of them have a better understanding of the role that education plays in their future life paths, and especially their prospects of securing and maintaining gainful employment. Too many still do not see the relevance and meaning of education, and there are some parts of the country where whole localities effectively “drop out” and disengage, leading to vicious circles of deprivation.

ANNEX A

The report forms part of a much larger programme of research entitled Beyond Current Horizons (BCH), which is focused on the Future of Education.

A series of initial papers were prepared for the BCH programme as part of a ground clearing exercise designed to identify any relevant research evidence. This lead to the BCH Expert Advisory Group defining a number of key Challenge areas, each covering issues and topics thought to be crucial to the future of education.

This report focuses on one of these Challenge areas. It is concerned with Working & Employment. It builds on an earlier paper by the author (Wilson, 2008) which was one of the initial series referred to above.

The Working and Employment Challenge

There is no shortage of research and commentary on the “Future of Work”. This has received a further boost in recent months, as the uncertainties associated with the worldwide financial crisis, and the subsequent economic recession, have increased. Academics and other commentators have produced enormous numbers of books, reports and journal articles focused entirely or in substantial part on the topics of future employment and work patterns. Technology and other changes are resulting in dramatic changes in how work is done and where it is undertaken. Globalisation has become the buzz word when discussing most economic and social issues. As a result of these developments, work can now easily be broken into smaller tasks and redistributed around the world. Dramatic improvements in real time communications, including the development of “virtual worlds”, are transforming the concept of what it means to be “at work”.

Sifting through all this material has presented a very real challenge. There is often a tendency to exaggerate and sensationalise in order to sell books and newspapers. In-depth and evidence based research by the academic community often suggests rather more inertia, and places more emphasis on trends which are evolutionary rather than revolutionary. This suggests that there is often a large gap between the rhetoric and myths perpetrated by some commentators and the reality of life in the workplace. This report attempts to provide an assessment of what is really likely to happen over the next 15 years or so, and to identify what are the main uncertainties in the area of Work and Employment.

The BCH programme allocated resources to each Challenge leader to help in the task of reviewing and synthesising the evidence, including asking other researchers to produce short Review Papers on topics of key interest. In the case of the present Challenge, these resources were deployed in the following ways:

• First, a Challenge Steering Group (CSG) was set up to help:
  • to prioritise the research areas to be considered;
  • to decide what specific reviews to commission and who might be asked to undertake them; and finally,
  • to provide a general sounding board in developing the present report.
• Second, the potential authors identified were asked to prepare short review papers on the selected topics;
• Third, a series of events (small seminars/workshops) were held: to discuss the matters raised; to identify common themes and gaps; and to help prioritise the key issues with regard to the objectives of the BCH programme finally;
• A series of Quick Reviews was also commissioned to fill in some of the main gaps identified;

Challenge Steering Group (CSG)

This comprised 4 acknowledged experts in the field of work and employment:

• Professor Lorna Unwin, (Dept. of Lifelong and Comparative Education, Institute of Education);
• Professor Ewart Keep, (Deputy Director, SKOPE, School of Social Sciences, Cardiff);
• Penny Tamkin, (Programme Director, the Work Foundation);
• Professor Alan Brown, (IER Warwick and TLRP Associate Director).

The Review Papers

A total of 19 Review Papers were commissioned, involving 21 authors, many of whom are recognised experts in their chosen areas of specialism. These papers are listed in the Reference section. They cover a range of topics intended to cover the most significant issues likely to affect the world of Work and Employment over the coming decades. This list was initially suggested by the author, and subsequently refined following comments and suggestions from the BCH EAG and the CSG.  Without these Reviews this report could not have been written.

In addition to the main Review Papers, a series of Quick Reviews was undertaken by Wilson and Gambin (2008). These were intended to fill in gaps identified by the author (in combination with the BCH EAG and CSG) after the first round of Review Papers had been completed.

All these papers will be made available on the BCH website.

The general brief for the Review Paper authors was to produce for their chosen topic a short paper which covered:

• The main trends and issues in the area concerned;
• Any possible discontinuities looking forward to 2025 and beyond;
• Uncertainties and any big tensions;
• Conclusions on what the key issues will be in the future, and initial reflections on any general implications for education.

It was emphasised that the reviews were not just about assembling Evidence, based on previous research, but also highlighting key Ideas and Values. In thinking about the future authors were asked to explore: Probable futures; Possible Futures; and Preferable futures. All Review authors were asked to bear in mind issues to do with the implications for the health, Well-being and happiness for children, families and workers.

The Events

The overall project Brief called for at least two events to be organised for each Challenge. These were intended as consultation and idea generation events (workshops or symposia), with attendees from a range of relevant disciplines, in order to explore connections between items of evidence from the reviews and generate new perspectives on the impact they may have on education.

The first event for the Working and Employment Challenge was held on 9th of October in London at TLRP offices. This event involved a number of the Review Paper authors, plus members of the CSG and others. This was a ground clearing and brainstorming event, facilitated by the author. It focused upon:

• Topics to be covered in the initial set of Review Papers;
• Possible gaps in the choice of Review Paper topics;
• Possible authors of Reviews not so far commissioned;
• Other areas of importance, for which there may be only limited research evidence.

As a result some new Review Papers were commissioned and others refocused.

Two subsequent events were held in December and January. These were smaller and focused on reviewing and synthesising the evidence assembled in the Review Papers and developing this Synoptic Report.

The purpose of this Synoptic Report

The main purpose of the Synoptic Report is to provide the Expert Advisory Group with a way of rapidly accessing the knowledge, evidence and ideas identified from the reviews carried out as part of the Working and Employment Challenge. This is intended to support the scenario development process that is a main component of the BCH programme.

It will also be used as the public facing summary of the findings of the Challenge in the final report from the programme.

References

Review papers prepared for the Working and Employment Challenge

Attwell, G and C. Costa (2008) Integrating personal learning and working environments. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge: Pontydysgu

Baldry, C . (2008) How will technological change affect opportunities for creating new economic activities, new sectors and new industries to the year 2025? Stirling Management School, University of Stirling

Bimrose, J. (2008) Careers guidance, identity and development. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Coventry

Bosworth, D.L. (2008) The R&D, knowledge, innovation triangle: education and economic performance. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Coventry

Brown, A. (2008) Developing expertise – moving beyond a focus on workplace competence, assessment and qualifications A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Coventry

Casey, B. (2008) The changing trajectory of working lives -what will be the impact of an ageing workforce and a longer working life? A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick,Coventry

Dex, S. (2008) Review of future of paid and unpaid work, informal work, homeworking, the place of work in the family (women single parents, workless households), benefits, work attitudes motivation and obligation. A Review Paper prepared for the Working & , Employment Challenge

Dixon, M. (2008) Information and communication technology, work and employment. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge.

Felstead, A. (2008) Detaching Work From Place: Charting The Progress Of Change And Its Implications For Learning. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge:  Cardiff.

Gambin, L. and R. Wilson (2008) The Future of Work: What Does Work Mean? 2025 and Beyond. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education: Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick Coventry

Green, A. (2008a). The Importance of Place. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education, Working &, Employment Challenge: Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry

Green, F. (2008) The Growing Importance of Generic Skills. Department of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent, Canterbury.

Hogarth, T and D.L. Bosworth, (2008) Future Horizons for Work-life Balance. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education: A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick Coventry

Keep, E. (2008) Labour Market Structures and Trends, the Future of Work and The Implications for Initial E&T. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education: A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge

Overell, S. (2008) The Meaning of Work paper prepared for the Beyond Current Horizons Project

Powdthavee, N. (2008) Happiness and Well-being. A Review for Beyond Current Horizon Programme University of York.

Round, J. (2008) The boundaries between informal and formal work. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham

Tamkin, P. (2008) In Search of Leadership A paper prepared for BCH. Work Foundation

Unwin, L. (2008) Connecting Workplace Learning and VET to Lifelong Learning. Institute of Education: London.

Wilson, R.A. (2008) The Future of Work: What Does Work Mean 2025 and Beyond? Challenge Outline Paper prepared for DCSF “Beyond Current Horizons” Programme.

Wilson, R. and L. Gambin, (2008) Quick Reviews for the Beyond Current Horizons Work and Employment Challenge, (covering: Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM); Children’s work; Entrepreneurial activity and practices; Innovation and intellectual property rights; Emerging economies and virtual/synthetic worlds; Possible negative effects of technological development) Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry

Other References

Barro R.J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York).

Bauman, Z. (2008) The absence of society. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. The Social Evils Series.

BCH (2007) Previous Global Futures, Technology Futures and Questions for Education: A provocation paper. Beyond Current Horizons programme for DCSF.

Birchall, D., S. Borrett, J. Gill, N. Silburn and P. Thomson (2005) Managing Tomorrow’s Worker: Final Report. Henley Management College.

Bonvin, J-M. and Farvaque, N.  (2006)  ‘Promoting Capability for Work: The Role of Local Actors’  in  Deneulin S., Nebel M. and Sagovsky N. (eds.)  The Capability Approach: Transforming unjust structures Dordrecht: Springer.

Bosworth, D and R. Wilson (2007) Trends in Employment Flexibility: Impact of Proposed Legislation on Managed Service Companies. Version 1.:paper prepared for Blairgowrie.

Bosworth, D.L. (2008).  “An Ageing Population: the Challenges Facing the UK”, Contribution to Skills in England, Learning and Skills Council.

Brown, P. D. Ashton, H. Lauder and G. Tholen, (2008). Towards a High-Skilled, Low-Waged Workforce? A Review of Global Trends in Education, Employment and the Labour Market. Monograph No. 10 October 2008, ESRC funded Centre on Skills, Knowledge and Organisational Performance. Cardiff and Oxford Universities, ISSN 1466-1535

CEC (2008) New skills for New Jobs: Anticipating and matching labour market and skills needs. Commission of the European Community. {SEC(2008) 3058}

CEDEFOP (2007a), Towards European skill needs forecasting. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.

CEDEFOP (2008a), Future skill needs in Europe. Focus on 2020.

CEDEFOP (2008b), Future skill needs in Europe. Medium-term forecast. Synthesis report.

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Eberts, Randall W.  (2007)  Trends in Worker Requirements and the Need for Better Information to make more Informed Decisions in a Global Economy. W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Kalamazoo, MI, USA, Paper presented at the Session Entitled “Adult Skills and Working Opportunities” At the OECD’s 2nd World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge, and Policy, on “Measuring and Fostering the Progress of Societies”, Istanbul on 27-30 June, 2007.

EMSI (2006) Documenting and Assessing the Role of Community Colleges in Developing Human Capital (authors: Laanan, Frankie; Hardy, David; Katsinas, Stephen). Community College Journal of Research and Practice, Volume 30, Number 10, December 2006, pp. 855-869(15). Routledge

EMSI (2008) A Look at “Green” Occupations, Part 1. http://www.economicmodeling.com/resources/wp-content/uploads/green-jobs_final.pdf

ESRC Future of work Programme (2004) http://www.leeds.ac.uk/esrcfutureofwork/output/publications.html

Families and Work Institute (2005) study by the Families and Work Institute in New York

Florida, R (2005) The Flight of the Creative Class: The New Global Competition for Talent. HarperBusiness, Harper Collins Publishers

Friedman, T. (2007). The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century.

Future of Work Program (2007) see the Future of Work website http://www.thefutureofwork.net/community_levels.html

Giullari, G and J. Lewis (2005) ‘The Adult Worker Model, Gender Equality and Care’. Social Policy and Development Programme Paper Number 19, United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (April 2005).

Harper, S. (2008) Demography Challenge Paper. Commissioned by the BCH programme: Oxford Institute of Ageing.

HCIUSSC (2009) (House of Commons Innovation, Universities Science and Skills Committee) Re-skilling for recovery: After Leitch, implementing skills and training policies. First report of Session 2008-09, Volume 1 (HC 48-1incorporating 505-i-v, Session 2007-08)

Heeks, R. (2008) Current Analysis and Future Research Agenda on “Gold Farming”: Real-World Production in Developing Countries for the Virtual Economies of Online Games. Development Informatics Group, Paper No. 32, Institute for Development Policy and Management, University of Manchester, Arthur Lewis Building, Manchester, http://www.sed.manchester.ac.uk/idpm/research/publications/wp/di/documents/di_wp32.pdf

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Yeats, Ronald, (2008) Article in the Sunday Express, 13/01/08, p55.

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This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation

See for example, neo-classical growth such as those outlined in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995), where the accumulation of human and physical capital is subject to diminishing returns (Barro, R.J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York).

Article by Ronald Yeats, Sunday Express, 13/01/08, p55.

See Wilson et al (2009), Cedefop (2007a, b and c) and Wilson et al. (2007) for details.

Skill is typically measured by occupation or qualification.

The UK’s Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) distinguishes a hierarchy of occupational titles and categories, dependent in art on the skill levels required to undertake them.

Formal qualifications are of course only a partial measure of the skills people have acquired, many of which are not formally accredited ad are acquired and developed after the process of initial education. Nevertheless formal qualifications have the huge advantage of ease of measurement.

There have been numerous attempts to define and measure these other aspects of skill, some of which are as much personal characteristics as competences that can be taught and acquired. In the UK the work of Francis Green and colleagues has been seminal (see Green (2008) for an overview).

Although note the caveats on this matter set out in Brown et al. (2008), who argue that the idea that the UK can become a predominately knowledge based economy is wishful thinking by politicians rather than a likely future outcome. Moreover, even those knowledge jobs that are created may offer much less scope for discretion (and hence job satisfaction and fulfilment) than their incumbents might hope.

Francis Green (2008) also discusses some aspects of this in his review.

So called “gold farming”, which involves playing or taking part in computer games on behalf of others to gain some economic reward in the “real” world.

There are some echoes here with problems of ensuring that there are sufficient teachers of good quality to nurture an adequate supply of high quality STEM graduates.

Barrs Hill is an example of a Full Service, Extended School, which aim to provide a more holistic approach to educating. Other agencies based in such schools can help with early interventions (linked to childcare, and working with parents). This was intended to become mainstream policy but seems to have been sidetracked.

This report considers the relationships between the state, the private sector and the third sector in the provision of education. It looks at the some of the factors that influence these elements and the relationships between them – in particular, digital technologies – and explores some of the ways changes in these factors might influence the way education delivery is structured over the coming decades to 2025 and beyond. In doing so, it draws largely on a set of reviews written for the Beyond Current Horizons programme, expert interviews and discussions from a workshop event. A summary of these reviews and activities can be found in the appendices.

The primary questions within this report centre on the actors whose actions constitute the educational landscape: who determines educational content, who is managing educational institutions, who is providing educational experiences, who is developing educational resources, what the funding mechanisms are that pay for this, and who is responsible for ensuring access to education. These address educational provision in its broadest sense, touching on independent, supplementary and alternative education, work-based learning, and paying particular attention to emerging forms of educational provision that have been enabled through new forms of technology.

It was noted by a number of review authors and interviewees that the lack of data that would support a comprehensive investigation into the relationships between state and non-state actors in the education arena was surprising, given the centrality of these questions to debates on education and its future direction. In part, this appeared to be due to the commercially sensitive nature of data on factors within the education market (though it should be noted that interviewees working for educational suppliers were extremely generous in sharing the information available to them). This sensitivity is recognised here in leaving interviewees’ views and comments unattributed. To some degree, however, this absence appears to reflect a genuine lack of investigation, rather than a lack of transparency. There are a number of possible factors that might contribute to this state of affairs. Within some research communities there are dominant narratives of state responsibility and corporate activity that are easily left untroubled. There are other actors within the public sector who may not feel that it is in their remit or their interest to trouble these narratives, or to reveal complex relationships within the market that may be misunderstood as a result. Information that would be necessary for a full understanding of the area may be held within organisations and sectors which lack a tradition of engagement with academic research or cultures of openness. Any thorough academic investigation would require a genuinely interdisciplinary effort, as relevant topics are addressed by a range of disciplines that may not have a history of collaboration. These factors are presented speculatively and are of course not exhaustive.

This report offers:

• An overview of the contemporary educational landscape in England, examining responsibility for access, curriculum authorship, production of educational materials, management of educational institutions, assessment and funding.
• An exploration of those features of the landscape considered likely to persist over the relevant timescale.
• An outline of some emerging trends within the provision of education whose direction of travel seems relatively clear.
• A set of related uncertainties, examining the different ways in which these emerging trends might plausibly develop.

• A short selection of implications arising from the trends and uncertainties discussed in this report, and some possible actions that might be considered as responses to the challenges they offer.

Some of the emerging trends identified here arose from discussions during the workshop event and have been drawn from a summary report written by Helen Beetham, to whom thanks and acknowledgement are due.

The various trends and uncertainties described here should be understood as factors that the work of the review authors suggests are worth continuing to pay attention to over the coming decades, rather than a comprehensive or exhaustive account of all factors that act within education or that will shape its future. As with any attempt to discuss future events and developments that have yet to occur, these trends and uncertainties are not certain to play out in the directions suggested here, nor is it impossible that other developments not addressed within this report will play a greater role in the future of education than currently seems likely. There are no predictions here, only likelihoods or possibilities.

It is worth briefly marking a couple of points regarding language. First, the distinction between learning and education, where learning can be considered a personal process of change and development, and education can be seen as an intentional social project executed with specific goals. As a social project, the practices of education are subject to the forces that shape all of society and will change as they change; learning processes, in contrast, change over a much longer timescale. While these two terms are often used interchangeably today, when considering the longer term future it is more likely that we will see changes in the ways we educate rather than in the ways we learn.

Second, throughout this discussion the terms “delivery” and “provision” are employed: these are terms used to describe the institutional organisation of education rather than to imply a particular method of education. In other words, it is not suggested that it is possible to ‘deliver learning’, nor that learners are best thought of solely as “end users” of what is delivered.

Section 1: The contemporary landscape of relationships between state, private and third sector provision in education

The purpose of this section is to offer a broad outline of the contemporary education landscape, and to begin to chart some of the interactions between the state, private and third sector organisations that take place within it. It is clear from the work of the review authors that the divisions between the state and other actors are far from distinct. The notion of an education system wholly defined and provided by the state alone, or of privately-funded schooling that exists entirely independently, are each belied by the complex interchanges that constitute the operation of the various education markets as currently seen. The material produced through the reviews and interviews that addresses these interactions is examined below, under the following areas: responsibility for access, curriculum authorship, production of educational materials, and management of educational institutions, assessment and funding.

Responsibility for ensuring access to basic educational needs

There are strong cultural and legal frameworks that define schooling, including the individual child’s entitlement to schooling, and the responsibility of the state to provide it. These frameworks are now firmly embedded in European law and international charters. One’s identity as a subject of the state is recognised as being established in part through schooling, and the frameworks that support this are likely to remain in place. From a policy perspective, an important context for examining the current landscape is the 2006 Education and Inspections Act. There are a few key features of the Act that are worth highlighting: the emphasis on “empowering” schools by “devolving as much decision-making to them as possible”, the conception of Local Authorities (LAs) as ‘commissioners’ rather than ‘providers’ of education services with a duty to promote “choice and diversity”, and the efforts to make “links with external partners” available to all schools, all support the notion that responsibility for the delivery and constitution of education is not located within the duties of the national government but is being moved towards schools. Acknowledging, or encouraging, the contribution of external partners is something that creates room within policy for the various interactions between schools and other groups described below. Responsibility is still acknowledged, however: the state still has a role in ensuring “fair access” and moderating covert selection processes. It is the practical considerations of providing education that have moved, rather than the duty to ensure access to education: the state acts as regulator and mediator of education provision, ensuring basic motivations for a national education settlement are met, but aims to do this through working with other agencies, whether for-profit (or other) groups from the private sector or third sector organisations (faith, social and parent groups). In particular, the state has an obligation to employers to ensure that they are able to contribute towards the provision of “skills” amongst the workforce: the Leitch review also gives the government an opportunity to cast those within education as “customers” , a relationship between learner and provider that draws on the language of the private sector.

Within the reviews and discussions that took place, some basic principles underpinning the provision of education were identified. Most fundamentally, contributors identified a moral right of an individual to education, and a moral obligation on the part of the state to provide access to education. In addition to this moral contract between citizen and state, there are societal needs served by a national educational settlement: the need for individuals to form an identity as a citizen of the state and the need for the development and establishing of social values and norms. These processes require some form of recognition, in the form of certification and accreditation of individuals who have participated in a process of education, and providing this recognition is another social role fulfilled by education.

There are other groups with an interest in and responsibility for ensuring access to education. Families have a number of well-recognised responsibilities towards children’s learning. Most straightforwardly, they are expected to support their child’s learning in school through provision of a home environment in which homework can be undertaken, and through a wider respect and enthusiasm for learning: the desire to see their children launched on successful life paths is translated into a responsibility to invest in their learning ‘privately’ within the family, as well as publicly through school. Many feel the need to do more to provide access to an education they feel is best, whether by relocating to an area with well-regarded schools, or by funding their children’s education directly themselves, and this reflects a more general cultural expectation that families actively support and promote learning for their members. Traditionally this support has been assumed to be for children’s learning, though increasingly families will need to support learning of all their members.

Employers, too, are recognised as having a stake in the provision of education, though it is debateable how much of a responsibility they have to provide educational opportunities directly themselves. As a group their interests are explicitly acknowledged by the government through definitions of education that focus on the eventual ability of learners to contribute to the economic wellbeing of society, and through the provision of vocational education that is responsive to employers’ stated needs. Employers have had a large degree of influence on vocational qualifications, though increasingly the need for training that meets wider social needs rather than solely the needs of employers is recognised by policymakers. This is part of a more general tension between identifying and investing in long-term skills (often transferable and more in employees’ interests), and meeting immediate short-term skills gaps (often specifically related to a particular role). Encouraging companies to invest directly in training staff appropriately, either in-house or through external suppliers, is one approach, though this would make it no easier for those not in employment to gain skills, and it may be difficult to find appropriate training in some regions.

Contributors felt that there is, perhaps more strongly in the UK than in other European countries, a strong discourse of individual responsibility for taking up learning opportunities, what might be thought of ‘capitalising oneself’ with knowledge and capabilities. Schools are becoming sites for the inculcation of personal responsibility as a more general social value, encompassing health and well being, citizenship and political participation in addition to more traditional, subject learning. Some contributors felt that the increasing diversity of supply models across the sectors was likely to strengthen the argument for individual responsibility and self-management. This individual responsibility is most noticeable within the context of membership of the workforce and the concomitant necessity for people to ensure they possess the necessary skills for such membership, but is also resonant with arguments that make a social case for learning and personal development. Many learning activities that seek to further this take place outside formal educational settings, and are often described as constituting “informal” learning by researchers and commentators, though they may still be structured and require a degree of commitment from the learner. These learning experiences are likely to interact in some way with the state, private or third sectors when they occur, perhaps through the simple exchange of capital in exchange for tuition, through the use of a facility funded by one of these sectors, or to expedite the learner’s entry into a more formal learning environment.

Determining the curriculum

Private or independent schools are not obliged to follow the National Curriculum, though the majority work towards recognised national qualifications and so there is a degree of overlap. Little of the material gathered through the reviews and interviews addresses the independent sector specifically, and insofar as these schools are independent their examination might be thought less relevant to describing the relationships between state, private and public sectors.

State-funded schools in England follow the National Curriculum, designed and set by the state through the Qualifications and Curriculum Agency, and assessed through a series of national tests until the age of 16, when learners can sit national examinations. This curriculum is developed in partnership with other government agencies and external groups representing adult learners, vocational training, employers’ needs and other stakeholder priorities. It represents government aspirations for learners and their contribution to society, reflecting wider policy directions, such as a commitment to remaining competitive within the “knowledge economy” or the inculcation of a sense of citizenship, as well as aiming to establish essential skills such as literacy and numeracy. Over the twenty years of its existence the National Curriculum has responded to social changes and attempted to meet new needs, as instanced by the introduction of functional mathematics, the recent focus on scientific literacy and the establishment of technological subjects such as Information and Communications Technology (ICT).

Companies with an interest in the education sector, such as publishers and technology providers, can influence the development of the curriculum in a number of ways. Most directly, there are close links between individuals from education technology companies and policy-makers (for example, through the Intellect group) which allow these representatives of the private sector to offer their perspectives on policy direction, and government to share current thinking. More broadly, the private sector as a whole shapes understandings of the economic context in which education is operating, works to reinforce the notion that the education sector is in the service of the country’s economic wellbeing and often seeks to influence perceptions of appropriate future strategic directions for learning and education through publishing white papers, sponsorship of events and initiatives and funding independent research into learning and technology.

A particularly visible site of interaction between the public, private and third sectors is the academies programme, originally a programme in which publicly-funded schools received sponsorship from private firms or individuals. Intended to raise standards in inner-city areas, the involvement of the sponsor was explicitly intended to enable them to embed their values (assumed to be focussed on success and aspiration) within the ethos of the school, and the injection of private capital was originally intended to offset the “deprivation” of the inner-city locations in which they were based.  Private sector sponsorship has declined since the introduction of the programme, however, and the emphasis is now on attracting sponsorship from universities and the third sector, whose specialist knowledge it is thought will support the development of an academy’s own specialism: the minimum £2million contribution has been waived, and the emphasis is now on sponsors contributing educational expertise and demonstrating a commitment to social mobility, as demonstrated by the engagement of the RSA and the charity ARK with the academies programme. A number of new academies are not the ‘failing’ inner-city schools that were the original target, but are formerly independent schools seeking greater financial stability. Regardless of the nature of sponsors, they are accorded a part in the development of the curriculum each academy follows, provided core elements of the National Curriculum remain.

A small number of early sponsors of academies attracted controversy for their supposed embrace of contested subjects such as ‘intelligent design’, prompting public concern that there were possible tensions with accepted science curricula and mainstream thought. Some academies are explicitly schools with a religious character, or ‘faith schools’: around a third of state-maintained schools have a religious character, and this naturally informs the curriculum they present to their learners.

Private sector organisations directly providing education that focuses on their particular field or practice are in a position to centre curricula on their specific needs, tying learning much more closely to employment within a particular area than under more general learning activities. This might provide learners with an advantage insofar as they can be confident they are learning skills and dispositions that are appropriate for their employer, or eventual employer, but may limit the range of employers for whom they might work if what they learn is tied too closely to a particular company’s practices.

For companies engaging with education in this way, the issue of intellectual property becomes important, as engaging learners with their particular domain and practice might necessarily expose their IP to a greater extent than they would prefer: these firms need to balance the benefit of increasing the pool of employees or potential employees with appropriate skills with the difficulty of protecting their IP. More broadly, education can be seen as a site for the generation of new IP. The materials supporting teaching and learning produced by educational publishers constitute an important source of IP from a business perspective. Longer-term, many universities have defined sites of innovation within their organisations specifically for the generation of intellectual property (for example, Cambridge Enterprise and Imperial Innovations). However, while the materials used to support teaching a particular curriculum might be protected intellectual property, no mention of protecting curricula themselves was made within the research underlying this report.

Producing educational materials

The focus here is on educational materials that rely on or are disseminated through digital technologies, as this was emphasised in the reviews and interviews, but it ought to be noted that educational publishers themselves observe no distinction between “old media” publishers and “new media” publishers, with most offering both paper and digital versions of textbooks and support materials, as well as software. Within the reviews and interviews, no mention was made of toys, physical models or demonstration devices, technical equipment such as environmental sensors, or tangible or haptic technologies, for example: this reflects perhaps a current general conception of technological educational materials that revolves primarily around networked computers and the software that runs on them, though a number of the interviewees represent companies that sell products from several of these categories.

There is a general agreement within policy and industry that educational provision operates within a market, with a choice of providers and competition between suppliers. While in many respects this is a more accurate conception than imagining educational provision to flow from the state, it was noted by some contributors that it might not be recognised as a true market by publishers and technology providers working in sectors outside education. Government policy (for example, efforts to increase the number of computers in schools, or to integrate different data-management systems across institutions) and the injection of capital from a central source (through, for example, the e-learning credits scheme) have a distorting effect on the marketplace, determining needs and objectives, and although the government does not act as a central purchaser it exercises what Sefton-Green describes as monopsony power, shaping the focus and direction of suppliers. Some interviewees suggested that the education sector in the UK has also been used historically to stimulate the growth of technology-related skills across a wider national arena, driving domestic and corporate uptake of computers and related technologies. However, it was also noted that the private sector must necessarily be involved in the provision of technology as there is little government scope for becoming a manufacturer or software developer.

The purpose of the technology which is sold to schools is often to support administrative and management processes (pupil tracking, payroll administration, asset management and so on), rather than directly supporting learning. Rhetoric around the capacity of technology to support learning often emphasises the ways in which it supports individual development and offers the possibility of ‘personalised’ learning: however, information technologies are powerful tools of standardisation and massification, offering a great degree of bureaucratic control. This second, less visible use of information technology accounts for a greater proportion of schools’ software spending than software explicitly focussed on supporting learning (roughly around 13-15% of total technology spend within the schools’ market, as opposed to around 5-7% for learning software: the remainder is largely spent on hardware).

These figures are vague and uncertain, reflecting the difficulty of examining this market and the hidden nature of some associated costs. For example, in some schools technicians are employed in-house (and so feature as staff), while in others technicians are external and their cost is part of services provided by an external supplier. For universities, the cost of contributing to an open source project might be greatly reduced if students carry out the work as part of their course than if a member of staff does the same work. These blurred lines illustrate the muddy nature of the interactions between technology and education, and suggest that viewing “technology” as a separate domain is not always practical.

There are a number of different kinds of private-sector suppliers of educational technologies operating in England at the current time. There are large consumer electronics and software development companies for whom education is a small part of their business (for example, Apple, Oracle or Microsoft) and for whom the motivation for engaging in the education market was reckoned by contributors to be less profit than an opportunity to raise brand awareness, increase the familiarity of future consumers with their products and philosophies and to address issues of corporate social responsibility. As an adjunct to this group, there are some companies who, while not directly concerned with educational provision or technology, may shape its delivery and influence expectations of learners and parents through efforts intended to fulfil corporate social responsibility objectives (for example, Tesco’s Computers for Schools programme, or Morrison’s Let’s Grow scheme). Farook notes that there is often considerable resistance to these programmes if they are perceived as inappropriate. Where the benefit to both school and firm is clear and equal (for example, in the provision of access to branded sports equipment by students) this resistance may be lessened, and it seems clear that this relationship between state and private sector will continue to be developed. More subtly, these efforts can shape wider societal expectations around (for example) access to technology for learners.

There are a small number of large companies whose focus is on the education market, most visibly the international educational publisher Pearson and the UK-based hardware supplier RM. These two organisations have diversified their activities within England in recent years, with RM moving into the supply of software and a greater range of peripherals, and Pearson acquiring one of the national examination boards, Edexcel. In general, educational publishers appear to be moving away from the simple provision of hardware and software into supporting assessment and long-term service provision (particularly with respect to the Building Schools for the Future programme). It was suggested that over the coming years fewer large companies will be operating across a range of what were previously discrete markets, and a range of smaller companies will establish themselves by identifying and actively targeting particular niche areas (the publisher Rising High was cited as a strong example of this approach). For commercial companies, there is greater interest in maintaining their close relationships with schools rather than the FE or HE sectors, as the standardised nature of schools and some FE colleges makes it possible to create content that can be used (or delivered) on a national scale, as opposed to universities which have a tradition of creating their own intellectual resources.

There are concerns around the role played by these large firms and their relationships with local authorities and policy makers, with one interviewee describing them as a “cartel”. Publishers and developers shape learning through the materials and technologies that are made available to educational institutions, influencing expectations of teaching and procurement staff and necessarily shaping teaching practice, notwithstanding their claims to be responding to teaching practice. These claims are genuine and supported by the number of employees coming from local authorities or schools with a more nuanced and sympathetic understanding of education practice than a caricature of the aggressive salesman would imply. Still, the relationship between schools and suppliers has a circular nature, with schools to some extent relying on these firms to inform them of their purchasing options and firms relying on schools to communicate their purchasing needs: this is underlined by the claim of one interviewee that there are many fewer people involved in the education technology community outside schools than might be expected, with the same individuals moving between local authorities, government agencies and private companies.

One contributor suggested that schools are comparatively “unsophisticated” consumers of technology, being used to receiving subsidies and having different procurement patterns and expectations to commercial firms. Schools’ apparent failure to purchase technology in the same way as a commercial business, apart from reflecting the fact that schools have not traditionally been run along the same corporate lines, may also reflect a pre-existing set of attitudes towards technology that arose from the early days of using technology with computers, when a “hobbyist mentality” was more of a pre-requisite for engagement with technology inside or outside schools and a cottage industry of software developers and distributors arose.

Two kinds of ethos towards technology in schools seem to be illustrated from the interviews and reviews.  On the one hand it might be suggested that there is an acceptance of the ready-packaged and quality-assured software and hardware provision from large corporate players such as Pearson and RM, where technology expertise is assumed to be located outside the school and procurement decisions that rely on such expertise are happily passed to representatives or proxies of the market, reflecting the lack of time or enthusiasm within an institution for engaging with such decisions themselves. On the other hand, it could be said that there are still vestiges of a tradition of technological experimentation and development that locates expertise within the school (perhaps within individual teachers), perhaps seeing itself as linked to the university tradition of technological development. Although this second “DIY” tendency is vocal and engaged, and informs much of the aspirational debate amongst researchers and policy-makers, there is doubt over the effectiveness with which teachers are recruited to its standard, and there is little indication within the work examined here that it will become a mainstream attitude within schools.

This hobbyist or DIY attitude might in some ways be seen as part of a wider movement supporting the “open source” creation of computer software. On a practical note, much open source software is significantly cheaper than its commercial equivalents and benefits from the presence of associated user communities. This is mainly relevant to primary and secondary education: HE has a much more familiar relationship with open source software, with HE institutions often acting as centres for the use and production of open source material. The notion of “openness” has been a productive nucleus around which to collect other instances of “open” activity: for some academics, placing limitations of copyright and access on their work slows research and is counter to the spirit of academic endeavour, while for learners there are an increasing number of institutions offering access to content and accreditation, usually using web-based tools.

It is not only “open” approaches to learning that make use of digital technologies that enable remote communication. Many companies offer home tuition to school students via webcam sessions with remote tutors (for example, TutorVista and Global Scholar). The tutoring model is still based around real-time dialogue but the virtual presence technology allows (typically US) learners to take advantage of lower tutoring costs in other parts of the world (for example, in Singapore). There are also a handful of schools that are encouraging their teachers to develop online tutoring skills and are reaching out to a wider population with paid-for online provision. Online tutoring is therefore an opportunity for schools to participate in the digital education marketplace and to redefine their own communities, as well as a source of supplementary or even competing services.

There are a number of sites not affiliated with formal learning institutions that act as places to access materials explicitly intended to support learning. Some are wholly concerned with learning, whether academic or non-academic (for example, the School of Everything, 5min or Instructables), while others, such as YouTube, are more agnostic platforms that have become useful for people wanting to share techniques, advice or coaching. Collaborative opportunities online, such as blogs, message-boards, public wikis and so on, have become established as useful locations for the exchange and construction of knowledge with peers.

Managing educational institutions

The most high-profile interaction between the state and the private sector with respect to the management of schools in recent years is the Private Finance Initiative (PFI), in which the construction and management of public institutions is financed and delivered by consortia of private companies, who receive a revenue stream from the state over a fixed period of time. As an investment mechanism it has been widely employed across the public sector, perhaps most visibly for the provision of health services. PFI projects represent the largest investment of private capital in education currently, though as a procurement approach it has been strongly criticised on both economic and ideological grounds. There are practical difficulties associated with the approach: local authorities have not always had the skill to manage a PFI project successfully, and the recent economic climate has made it hard for consortia to raise capital. However, the same economic pressures make it unlikely that new public projects will be able to go ahead without the support of the private sector, and for now the PFI approach is sufficiently embedded within procurement processes for it to continue to be a favoured approach to funding infrastructure projects.

PFI engagement with education projects tends to extend as far as the provision of services related to the facilities constructed under the contract: this may involve funding staff on site, but their role is usually concerned with maintenance and service provision rather than directly with educational activities. Academies, as described above, are another way of involving the private sector in the provision of publicly-funded education, and the sponsors often make a greater contribution to the management of the school itself, appointing representatives to the governing body, recruiting members of the senior management team, contributing to the design of the curriculum, and directing to a large extent the ethos and vision that underpin the schools’ activities. The engagement of sponsors of academies with the management of the school is much greater than that of PFI consortia members.

Both PFI schemes and academies are established features of the education landscape in England. Less common is the management of maintained schools by for-profit companies, such as GEMS, Edison or Kunskapsskolan. These organisations differ from traditional independent or private schools in that their revenue is derived through district-wide contracts with state agencies for the management of publicly-funded schools. The three named here represent three different ways of engaging with the provision of public-sector education. In Sweden, Kunskapsskolan manages schools for profit through a government voucher scheme: the company is entering England as a non-profit sponsor of several academy schools. Edison Schools in the US originally managed publicly-funded schools on behalf of district authorities, though poor financial and educational results have led to their specialising in service provision rather than whole-school management. In England, Edison (as Edison Learning) have been contracted to provide school improvement services in Essex and North London, providing teaching staff as well as training and management. GEMS is based in Dubai and manages a string of independent schools globally aimed at the expatriate market, including England, teaching local curricula and the National Curriculum.

These for-profit organisations are qualitatively different providers of private education than traditional ‘public schools’, with the latter’s reliance on social networks to provide legacies and donations in addition to tuition fees received from parents. They are also multinational, reflecting the increasingly global nature of the education market. Many domestic education providers are beginning to expand internationally, using an institution’s brand and relationships with locally-based institutions to establish sites of education delivery overseas, either as a profit-making exercise or, more commonly, to support recruitment and intake among domestic institutions. Increasingly HE and FE institutions are competing globally rather than nationally, often against universities with a greater funding base, and awareness of this perhaps encourages a more enterprise-oriented disposition. Currently, international demand is for an ‘Anglo-Saxon model’, though it should be noted that this does not privilege providers from traditionally Anglo-Saxon backgrounds, and global Englishes are often more relevant to consumers than Standard British English. This tendency to equate an international outlook with economic globalisation is filtering down to school level: the Specialist Schools and Academies Trust runs an International Business Partnership Network encouraging financial partnerships between schools in different countries that are supported by local businesses, while some schools are keen to promote the development of skills supposedly demanded by a technologically-enabled global economy.

Independent education provision is under pressure from the redirection of some parents’ resources towards supplementary private tuition. The cost of such tuition is decreasing, with low-cost providers often following a model established overseas and offering affordable tuition in supermarkets and shopping malls following the pattern established in Singapore, Hong Kong and the US. Supplementing state education with private tuition is an increasingly legitimate part of mainstream provision, with tutoring for failing pupils offered by the government and Aimhigher funding used by some schools to provide tuition for pupils applying to Oxbridge.

There are a number of other minority approaches to school management. Most visible are state-funded schools run by organisations with a religious character, or faith schools. These are maintained by local authorities, with infrastructure owned and managed by a group – often a charity – with a religious focus, who have representation on the governing body. Staff and admissions may be appointed by the local authority or by the governing body, depending on the school’s voluntary controlled or voluntary aided status. Faith schools are valued by some outside the faith community for their supposed emphasis on broad social values and high levels of achievement, though public and political concerns regarding ethnic or secular segregation, religious extremism, social integration and the possible lack of accountability remain, possibly leading to greater scrutiny and regulation in future.

Foundation schools place a similar emphasis on the contribution of the governing body to the management of the school, with the local authority funding the school and the governing body owning the infrastructure and employing staff. Foundation schools may be faith schools, though in practice few are: the primary advantages for schools in having foundation status are greater control over management and admissions policies, and a more equal relationship with local authorities. The structure also allows groups traditionally not involved in the direct provision of formal education to manage a school, and there are examples of parents and community groups taking this opportunity, allowing a greater focus on issues of local concern, perhaps responding to a lack of school places, or a desire for stronger ties between home and school.

Foundation schools and academies represent two ways in which the third sector can manage and direct the provision of education. Another approach has been developed by the Young Foundation with the Studio Schools scheme, which departs from the usual way in which 14-19 education is structured by conceptualising the institution as a cluster of student-led businesses, employing students, teachers and non-teaching staff with expertise in business: the focus is on developing general skills and dispositions that support entry into the workplace and an entrepreneurial attitude.  The scheme has been recognised by the present government as an example of the middle way between full privatisation of education on one hand and centralised state delivery on the other that it believes best promotes the conditions for “innovation”.

Education does not necessarily have to happen in a school or formal institution: there has always been a minority of children who are educated outside the formal system, most often at their home. Home schooling presents a direct challenge to the state’s ability to deliver its responsibilities and commitments as outlined above, particularly in light of the growing emphasis on schools as part of a system of care for children in England and Wales. This is illustrated by the aims of ongoing Elective Home Education Review chaired by Graham Badman (to be published spring 2009), which is investigating whether councils are able to discharge their duties of care to children outside the school system, whether home schooling can account for the level of education children receive, and to what extent the curricula addressed within home learning environments is aligned with government policy such as Every Child Matters.

While it is difficult to provide an exact figure for the number of children schooled at home (estimates vary from fewer than 10000 to over 50000), there seems to be general agreement that numbers are gradually increasing. One possible factor in this growth is widely reckoned to be the increasing availability of learning tools and materials accessible online. Indeed, there are a small number of independent schools existing entirely online, offering timetabled lessons where interaction with teachers and classmates is through messageboard, voice over IP and video-conferencing software. While the mechanism of interaction may be novel, an emphasis on the traditional nature of the underlying pedagogic approach seems to be common to many. Some online schools claim that they are particularly appealing for students whose parents desire a higher degree of control over diet and environment during the day, or who currently have difficulty relating to other students. Online schooling also appeals to some expatriates who presumably feel that their local schooling options are not appropriate: they are also a cheaper option the Within the UK there are three wholly-online schools, with around 200 pupils between them. First College and Briteschool are smaller organisations, while Interhigh is supported by Tutors International, a private firm supplying tutors to families around the world. All offer online tuition for GCSE and A-level students, with Briteschool additionally offering primary tuition.

As noted above, much online HE material likely to be administered by the relevant institution (so, far example, MIT’s Open Courseware programme is part of the offline institution of MIT rather than being an online university). However, there are a growing number of universities that exist entirely online. The UN’s Global Alliance for Information and Communication Technology and Development (GAID) recently announced the formation of an online university, the University of the People, offering tuition-free, currently unaccredited courses in business administration and computer science: its focus is on providing access to university-level education in developing countries. Other entirely virtual universities, such as the US Army’s “eARMYU” and Jones International University, exist, addressing different sectors. Currently, a more usual approach currently within HE is to offer a blend of online and offline access to learning materials.

Assessment

Three purposes of accreditation were identified by contributors to the research, all social and/or political in origin but acting at different levels of stakeholder interest: legitimation (demonstrating that the national project of schooling young people ‘works’); differentiation (organising people into the kind of life paths and educational streams that are felt to be appropriate for them), and providing a personal record of achievement, to support life choices and goals. Arguably, the focus of political debate about education has moved from the second purpose to the first. No mention was made within the research of the role of assessment in the learning process, reflecting the emphasis on external structures of education rather than pedagogy. This resonates well with the findings of the DCSF Expert Group on Assessment who suggest that the government has four purposes in undertaking the assessment of young people: to optimise the effectiveness of pupils’ learning and teachers’ teaching; to hold individual schools accountable for their performance; to provide parents with information about their child’s progress; and to provide reliable information about national standards over time.

National high-stakes examinations are the form of assessment most often discussed in public fora: despite a popular conception that these are devised and administered entirely by the state, they are part of what Ofqual describe as “a market for qualifications”, provided by “qualification buyers” and “qualification sellers”. These examinations – most notably GCSEs and A-levels – are managed and assessed by independent examination boards, primarily AQA, OCR (part of Cambridge Assessment), Edexcel, and the City and Guilds Group. The City and Guilds Group and AQA are independent charities, while Cambridge Assessment is a non-profit. Edexcel, as noted above, is a private company owned by the publishing company Pearson, and has an income significantly in excess of the other major exam boards (over £200m in 2007 compared to AQA’s 2007 income of nearly £150m).

There are other qualifications providers not recognised by Ofqual, providing qualifications recognised within particular domains and sector. Accreditation from Ofqual recognises the qualifications offered by a particular awarding body as being within the the National Qualifications Framework, giving them greater national currency and providing a level of quality assurance. The number of recognised qualifications has grown from 2771 in 2001 to 8379 in 2008, a 26% increase, and the number of accredited awarding bodies has grown similarly to 140. The majority of providers and increases exist in the vocational sphere, with some specialist organisations (for example, the Associated Board of the Royal Schools of Music) and others that offer a wide range of qualifications (for example, the City and Guilds Group). Employers recognised as awarding bodies – for example, FlyBe and McDonalds – make up 2% of UK awarding bodies, though this proportion is expected to grow over the coming years as employers recognise the value of their qualifications having wider currency.

E-assessment, or the use of ICT to administer, evaluate and present the results of examinations, is a well-established part of the landscape, though not yet mainstream. There are a wide number of different approaches that fall under the term “e-assessment”, and some have met with more success than others. There are a complex set of cultural and logistical issues that vary across educational settings: security, reliability, trust and accuracy are all paramount. Against these constraints, e-assessment has the potential to save costs for institutions and to better support standardisation, making it easier to link assessment to other ICT-supported areas of education such as e-portfolios, detect plagiarism and provide students with timely feedback. While at present e-assessment schemes often require champions and technical intermediaries, a recent JISC report suggest that usability is improving, enabling teachers and non-technical staff to prepare their own assessment procedures.

Automation of existing tasks is perhaps the most readily-observed element of e-assessment, using technology to deliver tests online, and increasingly to mark students’ responses: multiple choice or short text answers are more amenable to processing by computer than longer texts, though these are still often sorted using computer software prior to being marked by a human, and text analysis techniques are improving, enabling programmes to offer evaluation on the quality of language and judge the content. This raises the possibility of e-assessment making more of a contribution to formative assessment practices in future, with the field developing from being a set of techniques for easing the administrative burdens of delivering tests to becoming a more central part of the learning process. Educational publishers, notably Pearson, are investing in e-assessment, which may make it possible for such firms to offer linked curriculum, assessment and qualification practices to educational institutions and individual learners. Some contributors noted, however, that developments in e-assessment techniques and the possibility of the easy movement of educational data more generally suggest that a modular approach to assessment is possible, with accreditation being offered as a standalone service, perhaps as a way of validating time spent engaging with course materials available on the MIT OpenCourseWare model.

Funding education

The primary source of funding for education is currently central government. State schools receive funds for running expenses from local authorities , who receive a Dedicated Schools Grant from central government intended to cover each schools’ three-year budget and the costs of other educational provision (such as providing for special educational needs). Local authorities also have responsibility for FE, ensuring young people and adults have access to work-based learning through the provision of diplomas and apprenticeships, and for commissioning education providers to offer work-based learning. Higher education is paid for directly from the Higher Education Funding Council of England (HEFCE), a non-departmental public body. The primary source of funding for education in England, then, is the taxpayer.

Within pre-14 education there are few current alternatives to this model. One way of structuring the disbursement of taxpayer -derived funds differently would be through a voucher system, in which vouchers representing the state’s investment in learners can be exchanged for educational provision of the learner’s or family’s choice. There are concerns over the ways in which implementing this approach may affect local inequalities, with different impacts imagined depending on whether private schools as well as publicly-funded schools may be chosen, the degree to which quality of educational provision varies within a region, or whether or not parents are allowed to top-up their voucher allowances from their own funds. In practice, within England pilot voucher schemes have not been as successful as their supporters might have liked, and although vouchers are a mechanism that supports parental choice and as such might be expected to remain a feature of educational debate, there are currently no plans to introduce voucher schemes on a national scale for children’s education.

The resources represented by vouchers still originate from the taxpayer. At present there appear to be few other sources of revenue for schools or institutions. Parents can fund their children’s education directly through private or independent schools, or supplement state provision of education through paying for private tuition as noted above. Farook notes that more than a quarter of children aged between 11 and 18 years old have had private tuition at some point in their lives, and although there is no consensus on the degree to which such tuition impacts academic achievement, and concern that it may increase disparities in educational attainment, private tuition is still a popular choice for many parents, particularly at levels where new examinations have been introduced, such as SATS in key stage 3. Tuition is frequently focussed on passing high-stakes examinations but might also focus on extra-curricular activities regarded as desirable by parents (such as music or sport). In recent years two major developments within the private tuition market have taken place. First, the emergence of low-cost providers has lowered the financial barriers to entry, with many also based outside traditional learning environments and located within shopping malls or supermarkets, perhaps giving them access to new markets. Second, families who might have sent their children to an independent school are increasingly choosing to invest in private tuition for their children as a cheaper option, increasing the number of children in state school (and in some areas putting more pressure on limited school places).  For some learners, private tuition can be a mark of inadequacy or a source of social embarrassment, and Farook suggests that peer-to-peer learning approaches facilitated by ICTs may provide a cheaper and more acceptable alternative to paid tuition.

Following the lead of policy in embracing the language of the private sector, some schools are adopting an entrepreneurial approach to supplementing the funding they receive from central government. Some are able to generate revenue from the use of their facilities, charging for the use of athletic resources for example. In others, pupils contribute to fundraising efforts. At its most direct, this entrepreneurial attitude manifests itself in the opening of for-profit branches of schools overseas, as Harrow and Dulwich College have, and Bristol Academy plans to. Many higher education institutions have taken advantage of their brand to expand overseas in a similar way, though their motivations are often more to do with supporting the domestic institution through encouraging take-up from overseas students than with profit, and it is unclear whether the factors supporting an entrepreneurial attitude within HE, such as an emphasis on innovation for economic benefit, will act in the same way for schools.

HE has explored many ways to supplement central funding. As universities and other HE institutions continue to be pressured by the global market in higher education, in particular from well-funded US institutions, one possibility is for HE institutions to become private institutions, thought this would be controversial and some academic disciplines may suffer if universities are able to offer courses that are in their own interest rather than in the national interest. While a full marketisation of the HE sector is unlikely, the perception that higher education primarily benefits the individual may support the removal of the current cap on tuition fees, and more widely mark a shift in student expectations, seeing themselves more as consumers of a service and demanding appropriate levels of care and provision with a greater emphasis on value for money.

Becoming private institutions themselves may be unlikely. However, universities have had close relationships with external private sector organisations throughout their history: most obviously, through philanthropic donations, funding scholarships and departments. More specific interactions are observed between commercial organisations and research groups working in areas with industrial application, with funds for specific research being made available by private sector groups. In recent years direct partnerships between departments and related organisations have begun to emerge, in which the commercial partners might shape the direction of the department and provide links and opportunities to students within their sector. In general, policy supports the notion of private enterprise taking a larger role in funding and supporting university expansion: it is not yet clear what effect this might have on the focus and nature of research and teaching within HE institutions, nor whether work with no immediate application within an industry will suffer as a result.

Links between industry and education are a more obvious feature of work-based learning initiatives. Local authorities have responsibility for ensuring young people and adults have access to work-based learning, through the provision of diplomas and apprenticeships, and for commissioning education providers to offer work-based learning: work-based learning can refer to learning activities that take place within a work environment, or (when used in a UK policy context) to vocational training for young people. Increasingly, post-Leitch, FE providers are being asked to focus on meeting the perceived skills needs of employers, and this creates a role for employers in shaping and supporting the design of FE courses. Employers frequently fund training for their own workforce themselves, though there is a tension between an organisation’s short-term needs and employees’ longer-term training and learning needs, as employers often prefer to fund short courses addressing specific, often role-related, skills, while employees require transferable qualifications that may not ultimately benefit their employer.

Section 2: What features of the contemporary landscape will persist?

There are a number of features of the contemporary landscape that we can assume will remain relevant to a discussion of the relationship between private and public spheres as far as it affects education in twenty years’ time: these might promote or work against the development of some or all of those features described above.

Taking a broad perspective to begin with, we might say that the following list of factors will continue to operate, providing a context for future education. There are of course still many uncertainties associated with each of these.

• Diversity of provision.

o    There will continue to be a range of approaches towards the delivery and provision of education. In part this will reflect the diversity of requirements on the part of learners through population change and a greater emphasis on lifelong learning. Other factors influencing this diversity of provision include changing attitudes towards workplace and informal learning, the effects of a marketised education sector, and a greater range of possible technological affordances. The customer base for educational products and services is likely to diversify as schooling extends to homes, workplaces, supermarkets and community learning centres.

o    Ofqual expect to see more employers seeking recognition as awarding bodies in order to gain currency for their training beyond the limits of their organisation (Ofqual, 2009)

• The global marketplace will continue to shape higher education provision.

o    This is a consequence of many larger global economic currents: some are described here. Economic growth has created a demand for educational provision perceived as high-quality for cultural and historical reasons (for example, the current demand in China and South-East Asia for accreditation from ‘European’ or ‘Anglo-Saxon’ HE institutions), as well as offering HE institutions the opportunity to pursue more commercial relationships that would impact their brand in their home countries. Increased mobility has made it easier for academics and researchers to travel between institutions, while existing relationships with multinational commercial and industrial partners may give institutions access to other organisations and partners in different countries. Many UK universities actively market their courses to students from other countries. Pressure to compete as global research institutions has already driven some UK universities to merge.

• There will continue to be an arm’s length relationship between private sector and direct educational provision.

o    While the number of ways in which the state may devolve educational provision to the private sector have grown in recent years, widespread political and cultural commitment to the idea that the state has responsibility for the education of its citizens is likely to ensure that the private sector is not handed direct responsibility for the maintenance of state-owned schools without the state retaining some kind of an intermediary role between third-party providers and learners, or at least retaining an oversight role that addresses accountability.

• State involvement in early years educational provision will remain central to conception of a national educational settlement.

o    Similarly, there is an equally widespread commitment to the notion of a minimum educational entitlement and a common educational experience: the use of schools as a site for socialisation and the inculcation of shared values, together with the economic benefits of allowing parents to work rather than care for children during the day, suggests that the most appropriate age for the provision of a minimal educational entitlement is likely to be during a learner’s early years. Some contributors suggested that the specific ages intended for this provision may change, perhaps starting at age 3 and ceasing at 14, or not starting until age 7 and continuing till age 21, depending perhaps on the perception of the role of education or developmental effects of formal schooling.

o    The government will continue to create markets for educational services through its own targeted investment in and regulation of education, but contributors felt that ‘the stakes are too high’ for this stage to be left entirely to market forces. State involvement in this stage is likely to be seen as providing an initial investment in ‘learning to learn’ skills that should enable individuals to take responsibility for their learning throughout life.

• The influence of private sector on curriculum and policy will continue.

o    The private sector is likely to continue to influence policy directly and indirectly, through its commercial activities within the education market and through its contributions to wider debates on the appropriate aims and outcomes of education. Market offerings from private-sector learning providers may influence policy indirectly through competition, with the state under pressure to respond to successful private-sector courses by making similar learning programmes available.

• There will continue to be a requirement for lifelong learning.

o    Demographic changes (most visibly an aging society) and changing workplace requirements are likely to maintain the importance of lifelong learning, both as a route to ensuring minimal skill levels and, for some, as a path to further development, whether professional or personal. There is already a trend towards colleges becoming centres of learning for the wider community, collating services that include vocational, work-based, adult and leisure learning, as well as delivery of 14-19 qualifications. However, some contributors felt that the government’s vision of lifelong learning remained fragmented, unconvincing and unstructured. Much investment in ‘lifelong learning’ has in practice been remedial in relation to core provision, rather than an attempt to build or develop new learning.

• Social practices of institutions and learners will continue to shape learning.

o    Several contributors identified the importance of recognising inertia and the durability of established social relationships in discussing educational change. Policy statements, technological opportunities, social changes from outside the sector and market forces will each or together effect change only when they are able to overcome established expectations around educational practice, or when these expectations are no longer part of practitioners’ and learners’ understandings of education,

More specifically, there are a number of present-day features of the education landscape that authors and interviewees have identified within the Challenge as likely to persist:

• Assessment will continue to move towards technologically-supported automation.

o    This might be an example of technology being embraced primarily as a labour-saving tool to increase perceived efficiency, rather than being driven by a particular pedagogic commitment to using technology in a certain way (although of course any automation of assessment will carry with it an implicit pedagogy). However, there is currently within the education community an awareness that new technologies allow the possibility of logging data from learners’ behaviour that might well support the exploration of different approaches to assessment. The recent high-profile difficulties surrounding national SAT examinations both support and challenge this move towards automation, creating a demand for more reliable and trustworthy assessment while at the same time reducing the appetite for risk-taking.

o    As more of learners’ practice takes place with technological devices capable of recording data, more classroom activity will be available for evaluation and technological assessment will be able to play a greater role in formative assessment.

• Peer production and ‘web 2.0′ approaches to the collaborative generation of formal educational materials and activities will continue to be marginal in the face of institutional and cultural barriers.

o    Despite the enthusiasm for and fascination with recent innovations in web-based communication and data-sharing techniques (often referred to with terms such as ‘crowdsourcing’ or ‘mash-ups’), there is little evidence to date that anybody beyond a small and accomplished minority is able to create materials in this way, or to show how these attitudes towards the creation of educational resources might be embedded meaningfully within existing approaches towards teaching and learning. This is not to deny their potential or the support that can be found within contemporary theories of learning for the exploration and development of such approaches: rather, it is an acknowledgement that the history of digital technology in schools suggests that potential alone, however genuine or widely-acknowledged, is not sufficient to overcome wider cultural barriers to the introduction of new paradigms, and that it has historically taken decades rather than years for new technologies to find a place within education. Not all teachers or learners will want to be producers.

o    Learners may be unlikely to make these sorts of applications directly themselves: however, third-party developers may be able to take advantage of new approaches towards the repurposing and redistribution of data and information. Similarly, HE institutions are likely to continue to use their role as contributors to open-source projects and as sites of technological innovation to take advantage of and develop the affordances of new collaborative technologies.

• Investment in and exploration of location-aware technologies will continue.

o    The inherited discourse of the web as an alternative space (cyberspace) also needed to be set alongside trends in location-aware technologies (GPS, geotagging etc) which support an information-enhanced experience of real-world locations. Soon, all locations will be virtual as well as real, and virtual locations will be increasingly differentiated (including by geographical locale, particularly where governments control what is available on local networks). More mobile devices and better access to networks on the move will continue to enrich locations for learning, including remote communities and field sites. Cyberspace and real space will interpenetrate one another, with the result that without a conscious effort to disconnect, all learning is likely to take place in this new hybrid space.

• Teaching will continue to be a distinctive professional activity with its own values and skills.

o    However, educational staff will continue to need the support of content creators and service providers. As third-party providers continue to play a role in day-to-day teaching and learning, there will continue to be a demand for technical and product support to assist in the use of tools and content, both in their practical use and more broadly in understanding how new tools might impact well-established approaches to teaching and learning.

o    A wider range of people may undertake teaching and support of learning as part of their professional role, particularly at the post-foundational stages, whether after or as part of an established career in a different sector.

• The nature of knowledge will continue to be contested in the face of debates around authenticity and authority.

o    Although the area of knowledge is more directly addressed by other areas of the BCH programme, there are a number of ways in which developments in digital technology and their associated social practices make this a relevant consideration for this research area. In particular, the need to be confident of the provenance and authority of digitally-gained knowledge will become pressing: not only will people need to be sure of the source and authenticity of information they encounter, but will also need to ensure that they produce information whose authenticity is sufficiently beyond question, in particular when identifying themselves online. Most visibly, there will remain a tension between policy (and associated providers’) views of education and emerging student practices and strategies,

• Understandings of information rights and intellectual property will be reconfigured in the light of technologically-informed expectations.

o    It is already the case that there exists a tension between the established legal and orthodox attitudes towards ownership and re-use of information, and those more aligned with the affordances of digital technology. It is also highly likely that retaining these established societal norms will incur an increasingly heavy regulatory cost, making it more probable that they will be restructured in some way. The widespread sharing and redistribution of content – legal, illegal and unlegislated – will remain a feature of this landscape. However, there is high uncertainty over the form they will take: will the current ‘wild west’ succumb to legal normalisation? Or will a tiered system of information and content evolve as different creators and distributors choose different approaches?

• Tutorship and supplementary learning will become increasingly important elements of the education landscape.

o    The middle classes will continue to use their household resources to secure access to these additional educational opportunities. However, competition between new providers making use of web technologies and novel learning locations is currently lowering the costs of such learning: additionally, independent schools membership is likely to decline at least in the short term as the global economic environment remains depressed, and tuition coupled with state school attendance may be seen to be an adequate alternative to private education for many middle-class parents.

• Marketing through schools by companies not directly related to education (for example, Morrisons’ Let’s Grow campaign, Tesco’s Computers for Schools project) will remain at the current level.

o    While it is true that there is little public appetite for overt branding of any part of the educational experience, there is an appeal for companies in visibly addressing their social responsibilities: this, coupled with the professed desire for stronger links between schools and local communities and a greater acceptance of corporate involvement in the public sphere, will ensure that schemes for the provision of equipment or infrastructure from non-education organisations remain worth individual companies’ investment.

• Workplaces will continue to ensure their own training and learning requirements are met, whether by lobbying for the inclusion of certain skills and competencies in curricula, or by providing them directly.

o    Workplaces already form a large marketplace for training and development activities, with individual organisations sometimes able to embrace innovation in ways that traditional learning institutions are not (for example, using videogame technology in simulating not only technical procedures but also interpersonal workplace relationships). This flexibility, coupled with the growing prominence of the private sector in the public sphere and the emphasis on the need for schools and HE institutions to serve the economy, might see techniques and approaches developed in the private sector being more frequently seen in traditional education and lifelong learning.

• Private firms will continue to be used to effect state education provision.

o    While the current economic climate may dampen the recent enthusiasm for the practices of the private sector, the general principle of contracting individual services to third parties is sufficiently established, and the relationships between some private firms and public service agencies sufficiently entangled (as noted by Sefton-Green), that it seems unlikely this will change significantly over the next two decades, even if an adequately practical and compelling case were made (short, perhaps of incontrovertible evidence of widespread and systemic fraud, which at the present moment might provoke state action and a recapturing of the public space: this is unlikely). One practical outcome of this might be that uptake of open source tools in mainstream education meets strong opposition.

o    Alternatively, more educational suppliers may move into the provision of qualifications and accreditation, making their content more accessible but charging more for participation in their assessment programmes.

o    Managerial approaches to education are likely to continue to be seen within the culture of educational institutions, further legitimising the engagement of the private sector.

• There will continue to be widespread online provision of learning opportunities.

o    While there are currently many technical and cultural barriers within mainstream schools that prevent full access to web materials, there are a growing number of instances of online provision that support formal and informal learning, originating from both geographically-located and virtual institutions. Experiences of MIT OpenCourseware, VideoJug, Second Life, 5mins and Instructables are evolving the norms and expectations that will be more widely adopted over the coming years.

• Public awareness and conceptions of the science of learning will continue to have an impact on views about education.

o    These understandings, whether shared by professional or academic practitioners, will have an effect on what is politically possible in and through education. Reductive accounts of learning in terms of genetic capability or brain chemistry might have more purchase on public consciousness than social and cultural accounts, particularly in light of discussion on cognitive enhancements or genetic technologies. As parents and students invest more directly in education, scientific and pseudo-scientific discourses about learning may be employed more overtly in support of particular private services or public approaches.

Section 3: What changes of direction in state/market/third sector provision of education do we see emerging?

Here we list movements that are sufficiently high-level to be considered as trends in one direction or another. All of these operate under larger changes in the relationship between the public and private sectors: some are specific to education, but many are education-specific instances of wider trends, for example towards greater responsibility for one’s own good and wellbeing. And all are written with an understanding that the notion of a simple binary between “public” and “private” is illusory, as illustrated by the recent series of government interventions within the heart of the free market.

• Increasing responsibility for provision of individual education moves from the state towards the individual and their family groups.

o    This could lead to significant levels of exclusion amongst those lacking the capital to ensure appropriate, or any, provision. However, it might also make it possible for some groups to meet the requirements and needs of some learners in a tailored fashion, perhaps through locally-focussed small schools, which might be the product of genuine community effort, or a carefully-branded offering from educational multinationals.

o    This move suggests a recasting of, or at least a greater emphasis on, the relationship between learner and institution as one of customer and provider.

• Increasing emphasis on health, wellbeing, social skills, citizenship and civil participation as things to be fostered within formal education

o    A wider and more speculative movement might be towards the re-imagining of learning as an essential part of general health and wellbeing.

• Increasing direct investment by middle-class families in extranormal provision of education

o    This might also lead to increasing interest in and respect given to ‘learning science’ discourses centred around psuedo-neurological accounts of learning.

• Increasing diversity of education market

o    Greater choice and competition, or a greater number of groups identifying themselves as possible markets with specific learning requirements, could lead to a plethora of ways of addressing all parts of education, from assessment and accreditation to post-education learning and childcare.

o    Educational publishers that currently receive more benefit from ‘off-the-shelf’ approaches to education may become more able to provide granularised, modular products that are more easily integrated with custom learning environments.

• New learning practices facilitated by changes in digital technology

o    Necessarily supporting informal learning to begin with as these appear outside a formal learning context (possible uncertainty: gap between innovation inside and outside schools decreases?)

o    In a formal context, developers of education management software are working to make it easier use and gather information on learners to build a more comprehensive picture of their behaviours, preferences, abilities and achievements, with the intention of supporting learning rather than merely facilitating pupil management. Using this data effectively would require new forms of pedagogy, which in addition to having to recognise the ethical and legal issues involved in using data in this way are likely to based on a quantitative, process-driven approach to learning, given the present-day philosophies apparently underpinning work in this area.

o    Another possible direction might be for educational technology suppliers to concentrate on equipping learning institutions to enable learners to use their own personal devices, so focussing on providing robust network access, appropriate data sharing and protection systems, device-agnostic authentication systems and other necessary infrastructure features.

• Disaggregation of education into content, teaching and accreditation in some areas

o    This might happen as a likely consequence of the ready availability of content and open learning materials. In addition to high profile projects in the US several EU universities are now offering their course content for open access, but with potential students applying and paying for accreditation. The funding models are still emergent and the outcomes by no means certain. One envisaged future has poor, low-status universities bowing out of content and curriculum altogether, offering instead a tutoring service to help people gain accreditation (in-house or external), or brokerage of opportunities on an information, advice and guidance model. Franchising by high status universities and colleges might then become the norm, with a corresponding loss of diversity in the HE and FE sectors. This might impact lower down the age range not only because a re-stratification of post-school institutions would create new pressures at the point of transition, but indirectly through the concentration of power in the hands of accrediting bodies across the sectors. As the technologies of content became virtually ubiquitous, technologies for accreditation, certification, management of learning records, and assessment, will become critical to the sector and potentially highly profitable.

o    This separation between content and accreditation may act as a motivator for commercial companies to open access to the materials they currently charge for. For example, Pearson might see more people engaging with learning material for Edexcel qualifications if the costs were reduced, building the market for their qualification, which they could then charge more for.

• Internationalisation of more than higher education

o    If this plays itself out among secondary and primary schools, this would be following a recognised path of innovation within education, particularly with respect to digital technology but also in other domains, whereby practices seen first within HE are found later within secondary and then primary schools. Alternatively, and perhaps reflected more visibly in the present, further education and lifelong learning opportunities, alongside supplementary tuition online or in drop-in centres, may be offered by multinational organisations.

• Increasing movement of some education institutions to brand themselves on a global scale

o    There is a movement for some schools, largely independent, to open ‘branches’ abroad: Harrow has schools in China and Thailand, while Dulwich College has schools in China, the income from which is intended to support means-tested pupils attendance at the London school.

o    There are likely to be more UK students studying abroad, and more students from traditional overseas markets studying in locations other than the UK, as China, for example, continues to turn itself into a “host” country offering globally competitive education opportunities.

o    This and the previous trend have implications for curriculum design, in particular the need to be aware of culturally-specific aspects of existing curricula that may not be as appropriate for a more global audience.

• Third sector involvement in providing specialist services to schools rather than managing whole institutions themselves.

o    This would sidestep questions of accountability and mechanisms of redress in the event of service failure. However, there would be equally pressing questions raised about the possible use of third sector organisations as a substitute for government-funded provision.

• Increased diversity of locations associated with learning
  • The association of purpose-built buildings with education may be weakened through the locating of for-profit education services within shopping malls and supermarkets, the use of community facilities by educational institutions (for example through partnerships with leisure centres) and the emphasis on libraries and museums as places affording learners opportunities for active educational engagement rather than being only passive repositories of artefacts.

• Tensions between knowledge cultures, primarily along generational lines

o    New information technologies are likely to reconfigure attitudes towards knowledge use and creation, and those groups that are less familiar with their use may find that existing ideas about ownership, authenticity and identity are challenged by the new practices that emerge alongside these new technologies.

Section 4: Major uncertainties

The trends described above have clear directions of travel, but the ways in which they play out in the world and their implications are uncertain. In this section we briefly outline some of the major areas of uncertainty with respect to the ways in which education might be structured and organised in the coming years.

Despite the impetus towards a marketised school system described above, it is far from certain outcome. There are political obstacles: many in society are unwilling to imagine a fully-marketised school system, and the need to keep the private sector at arm’s length noted above is likely to continue to obtain. There are risks that the push towards marketisation originating in discourses of ‘choice’ and ‘personalisation’ may tend more towards segregation and division if given full rein. More practically, there are many changes that would be necessary for the school system to be fully-marketised. Some possible structural changes could include the linking of LA funding to performance, capitation following pupils in addition to funding, the removal of LA control over the funding and organisation of schools, schools given the ability to opt-out of the delivery of a national curriculum and of national staff payment agreements, a robust system for managing school failure, and a national school bus or other transportation system which would enable choice to be meaningful and not constrained geographically as at present.

A related uncertainty is the role played by more affordable private tuition. As noted above, the increase in affordable supplementary provision of education may lead to an increased number of middle-class children in state schools, as their parents conclude that combing state schooling with extra tuition is comparable to a wholly-private education. However, as the affordability of private and supplementary tuition becomes more visible, traditional resistances to private education – a perception that it is too expensive, or only relevant to a higher social elite – may be reduced, encouraging greater uptake. This might be more likely to benefit new entrants into the private sector rather than the traditional ‘public schools’: additionally, the immediate impacts of the economic depression will tend to work against increased uptake of private education in the short term.

There are a number of areas of uncertainty concerning the sites within education where innovation and innovative practices might emerge. Specifically, the marketisation of content designed to support teaching and learning, the development of open-source software in schools and the role of national public service broadcasting are ones with plausible but contrasting possible alternative paths. All of these have at their centre the effect of communications technology on existing knowledge practices.

Currently, material intended to support teaching and learning, or ‘content’, is often assumed to be valuable through its designation as ‘intellectual property’: dissemination relies on its remaining unchanged, and on its being useful to educators. Existing stresses on our notions of IP may lead to an exploration of the value of protecting the design and instruction processes associated with such content, rather than simply the static material. This approach would be counter in spirit to the ‘open source’ attitudes described above: we have already noted, however, that within mainstream schools there are strong forces countering the widespread adoption of open source software and the notion of freely distributing intellectual property. A recent OECD report warned that commercial interests might start patenting content based on the expertise that has gone into its instructional design. This was particularly a concern with respect to educational materials for the US schools market, where content is almost entirely outsourced.

Regarding open source software in education, contributors to the research accepted that operating systems other than those from Microsoft will remain rare in mainstream schools, due in part to teachers’ unfamiliarity with the software. However, it is also accepted that many schools (particularly primary schools) contract third-party suppliers to maintain and manage their technology infrastructure. If it became worthwhile for these firms to supply open source software, perhaps thorough a need to price competitively, or demands from schools for more customised software, then provided they also offered adequate support for its use it might not be unrealistic to imagine a wider range of operating systems in use across the sector. For smaller or more marginal schools, perhaps those at a greater remove from the culture of mainstream schooling, open source might be a more appropriate option for financial or perhaps cultural reasons. One major uncertainty that emerged from the interviews carried out was the effect that the entry into the workplace of students familiar with open source projects will have on the software market, given the argument put forward by some contributors that software companies are keen to establish their product as central to students’ practice in order to maximise the likelihood of those students preferring it in their professional practice.

Of course, information available online may not be open source. Amongst contributors to the event and interviews there appeared to be an assumption that the availability of online information would change profoundly what would be required of the education system, with a related assumption that the teaching of information would give way to coaching in information skills of various kinds and for various settings. Networked information, along with the associated networks and services, would continue to be free, openly available and highly accessible. The question of who would own the networks and data warehouses, and who by extension would control the information being shared and accessed by users, was not raised. However, Jonathan Zittrain’s recent book notes that the Internet is at something of a crossroads, with a proliferation of ’sterile’ devices that give basic access without allowing users to share and generate content. In one possible future, then, the Internet becomes a commercial mass medium, with a large majority of passive consumers having their attention sold to advertisers as the price of access – or having to pay more directly. For the Internet to remain a place of creative interchange, a critical mass of users must continue to use computer-like devices to generate and enrich content. How IP is managed on the internet will also of course have a profound impact on the future of online information. It was noted that everything on the web is owned and commercially mediated, and that norms of usage are becoming framed in legal and commercial terms rather than the open, creative terms on which the web originally evolved. Ultimately, authority might be derived from the strength of the brand providing access to information, raising the possibility of organisations whose core business has traditionally not been education providing courses and access on the strength of their existing relationship with consumers.

Public service broadcasters (PSBs) are acknowledged to have responsibilities towards supporting education, broadly defined, and as their role within the national media landscape changes, so too will the ways in which they support education. The ways in which they do this currently, and the ways in which they might do so in future, are complex when examined in detail, but taking a more general view there are two main visible tendencies, each a reflection of the wider discussions about the future roles of PSBs. One is an explicit commitment to formal institutional education, with a focus on providing ‘learning content’ through profit-making, following a path established by movements such as the BBC Active partnership between Pearson Education and BBC Worldwide. The other follows from a recognition that PSBs are in a unique position to foster innovation and support new ways of engaging with media technology, and that their engagement with education should reflect that, continuing along the direction that elements of Channel 4 and the BBC are exploring. It is not currently clear how the two directions would continue to coexist, although it is equally difficult to say that they are necessarily counter to one another.

PSBs are given a national remit, with the historic exception of the BBC World Service, and engagement with overseas territories tends to be through profit-making arms of the organisations. Similarly, HE institutions are increasingly engaging with other territories for reasons of profit, as noted above. There is an uncertainty here around language. Demand for English language education materials is high, and while English is the basis for global conversations likely to remain so. However, while the BBC, the British Council and others promote their English language materials through associating them with Standard British English and its perceived authoritative nature as the ‘original’ or ‘most correct’ form of English, as global middle classes grow in confidence other Englishes may become more appropriate, reflecting greater national self-confidence.

From the event and the research it is clear that there is uncertainty about who will support innovation in society and the economy? Employers tend to upskill their workforce in areas relevant to their short-term commercial horizons, but society needs the capacity to respond to change on a wider basis and a longer time frame. Traditionally, providing this capacity has been the role of higher education, both through research and development and through the production of higher order skills. If higher education is to be more closely tied to the requirements of graduate employers, and if research is to be further dissociated from teaching (e.g. through a re-stratification of the sector), universities’ capacity to support innovation on a longer time-scale may be compromised. On the other hand, widening access to higher education, as required by the Government’s current commitments to higher order skills, may mean a larger percentage of the population acquiring such skills.

The question of whether national boundaries will be made irrelevant by networked technology is frequently heard within debates on the relationship between technology and education, and it is certainly true that new global communications infrastructures, combined with corporate branding and positioning, has enabled some education institutions to become less tightly coupled to one particular geographic location. On the other, trends towards a greater emphasis on geolocative and mobile technologies and services within consumer electronics and web use patterns, and towards regional governance and regulation of internet services, might make the notion of ‘cyberspace’ or ‘the virtual’ as being places independent of geography outmoded. Networked life may be much more tightly coupled to physical location than previously imagined, with consequences for educational activities that rely on different models of technologically-mediated communication. Indeed, the increasing diversity of provision, and local variety of needs and requirements, could see educational becoming a regional rather than a national project.

It was suggested that a non-technology-based education might become highly desirable, particularly if technology continued to support massification and diversification of teachers’ roles. Alternatives such as Steiner schools are already proving attractive to middle class parents, and could present a counter-balance to an increasingly technologised schooling system. Related to this idea was the notion of an unmediated intellect becoming a status symbol in a world where performance enhancement through drugs and digital devices/implants/grafts were to become commonplace, or perhaps instead such a mind would be a sign of deviance. Perhaps the ‘conscious effort to disconnect’ might become a counter-cultural movement among groups of parents and young people.

There are a number of uncertainties within formal education that are worth noting in the context of future educational organisation and provision, around the notion of specialisation, accreditation and teaching as a profession. Currently, the majority of young learners in formal education are encouraged to specialise, choosing between ’science’ and ‘arts’ subjects at school and then later a more specialised discipline or area in higher or further education, represented as a choice made in support of an eventual professional career. Discourses of personalisation and ‘learning styles’, as well as pressure on schools to meet attainment targets, may encourage young people to focus on one particular area even earlier than this: alternatively, recognition that longer working lives make it more likely that careers will cover many disciplines and an emphasis on genuine lifelong learning might together remove the need for young people to specialise in initial education. These alternatives act to shape the future role of accreditation: is it most relevant as a badge indicating that compulsory schooling has been completed, as a means of differentiating between young people, as a mark of competence in a given area, or as something else entirely?

Related to this is the question of when and where specialisation might occur in the education system. Diversification of schooling around different types of provision, seen as a likely possibility by some contributors, might entrench social stratification. Vocational training could migrate further down the age range, with large companies or corporate sectors more actively involved in creation of curricula and sponsoring specialised schools. Universities may forge new relationships with schools that focus on particular domains of expertise, allowing schools to offer specialised courses of education that serve as introductions to degree-level learning and induct students into particular knowledge communities earlier than at present. At an extreme this could be seen as a return to a form of guild system for at least a section of the school population. Alternatively (or, in a highly diverse system, relatedly), different communities could take responsibility for supporting different kinds of learning centre, embracing different educational values, and fulfilling social as well as educational needs.

Accreditation and certification through formal education is likely to play a continuing role in ‘organising’ young people into different life paths, but it is unclear how far that process will be driven by the diverse capabilities and goals of learners and how far by external pressures, for example to prioritise access to higher levels of learning or meet the needs of employers. If the move towards competence-based accreditation continues, the trend towards individualisation might well be enhanced, as responsibility is placed on the individual to demonstrate a standard or competence, rather than on the provider to ‘cover’ the relevant knowledge and skills. Different forms of accreditation might be developed to recognise informal know-how and practice-based competences: speculatively these might be technology-supported, e.g. based on video recordings, perhaps with analysis and tagging. This would ensure the further diversification of qualifications and standards of achievement, and might also render much more permeable the boundaries between formal and informal/non-formal learning.

These, and other, possibilities will naturally drive changes in the teaching profession. The trend towards the disaggregation of educational activity into separate domains of ‘content’, ‘delivery’, and ‘assessment’ calls into question the need for a single role of ‘teacher’, though may open up new opportunities for specialists in these three areas. Increasing financial and commercial pressures may lead to greater variation in contract terms within the profession, with more members of the workforce working as temporary or short-term members of educational organisations. Alternatively, these same pressures may lead institutions to consider the members of their teaching workforce as marketable assets, promoting their expertise and experience as qualities that reflect positively on the institution. Finally, if roles within the teaching workforce are to change significantly, it may be that responsibility for training the workforce may need to reflect this, through ‘in-house training’, different levels of professional accreditation, greater emphasis on professional development and possible increased engagement with sectors outside education.

One argument that arose from the event was that the trend of ‘outsourcing authority and control’ to private companies (i.e. transferring public education funds to commercial providers of content and accreditation, rather than paying teachers to provide them in-house) would undermine the profession, and therefore the quality of education. This argument was also expressed in slightly different terms elsewhere in the discussion: the disaggregation of educational provision into content, teaching and accreditation would undermine the integrity (literally) of the teaching profession. Counter to this came the argument that budgetary devolution to schools opens up a market for ‘niche’ learning approaches and areas of specialism. Schools could purchase services to fit their own curriculum model on a piecemeal basis (and there would be new opportunities here for commercial providers, such as Montessori learning materials), but the curriculum would be strongly associated with the school and there would be an investment in teachers as the source of ideas and practices relevant to the school’s particular mission.

An important intersection of the private sector and education occurs in the context of pharmaceutical interventions: drugs intended to address conditions such as ADHD are manufactured and distributed by private companies, and are a feature of many classrooms. The debates around the place of pharmaceutical interventions within education institutions are complex and ongoing, and likely to inform the response of educators and parents to the likely increased availability of drugs intended to enhance cognition and other pharmaceutical and biological enhancements. If such enhancements became the norm in particular workplaces (for example, within engineering, banking or medicine), and if cognitive processes could genuinely be enhanced without cost to the individual, then come contributors felt that their use in higher education would also become the norm. In schools, a competitive assessment regime would make use of enhancements inevitable, whether or not they were regarded as legitimate. Access to such enhancements would probably come to be regarded in the same way as access to books or a balanced diet – possibly unfair, but not ‘cheating’, and accessed more easily by well-resourced middle-class families. Alternatives were proposed, however. After a period of differential access, pressure might grow for an equal entitlement as is beginning to happen with networked computers: schools might even be under pressure to provide medication along the lines of school milk. Drugs might be used as a form of social control, with medicated or enhanced classes being better behaved and more amenable to learning messages: low capacity to learn could become a medicalised issue, like ADHD. It was felt by some that, as part of these practices, diagnostic testing would be an area of likely development, given the existing interest in diagnosing children with particular learning needs. Genetic forms of diagnostic test might become more prevalent in education, by transfer from other sectors such as insurance and medicine. Perhaps such an emphasis on the biological would see education considered more properly an aspect of health and wellbeing in the future, with pharmacological and health providers moving into the provision of education as a natural part of their core business.

Section 5: Implications for educational policy makers today

These trends and movements within and between the private, third and state sectors all have implications for education and educational policy to some degree. In some cases, the patterns described are a consequence of policy or otherwise already acknowledged by it (for example, the increasing presence of a market culture within education). In others, education policy has not yet begun to visibly engage with the implications of some of the trends presented here (for example, the tension between encouraging localisation and decentralisation, and treating education as a national project). Here we briefly outline some of the implications for education policy arising from the foregoing overview of the relationships between the state, the private and the third sectors.

There are large areas of uncertainty associated with these interactions. Will education publishers continue their project of vertical integration? Will grass-roots collaborative technologies subvert commercial interests? To what extent will it be acceptable for the state to fund institutions that represent minority values? As the sector diversifies, questions of this nature will multiply. However, keeping track of sites of challenge and innovation will become increasingly problematic without a deliberate effort to remain informed and receptive. Collaborative technologies make it easier to develop new practices under the radar. New forms of education may emerge in England that developed overseas where their growth may not have been followed. Received ideas about what is and is not ‘education’ may cause individuals to miss the evolution of new forms of learning practice. In developing the capacity to manage uncertainty, it will be helpful to establish practices that enable the sector to monitor activities centred around learning beyond formal state education, including informal learning practices and learning within the workforce.

Three areas that will be of particular relevance to policymakers arising from the reviews and interviews are the nature of schools, the disaggregation of content and accreditation, and the influence of commercial activity on shaping educational provision.

Much of the foregoing discussion draws attention to the possibility of schools no longer being a core organising structure for education, perhaps as a result of the decentralised nature of new learning networks and practices, or the greater role played by employers and corporate groups in ensuring skills provision. Where they continue to exist as a corporate entity, they may well not be exclusively located within a physical building: school infrastructure may be shared with other local groups or partners, or schools might hire appropriate working space from commercial firms as other corporate groups do. Meanwhile the school would still be able to function effectively and ensure its brand remained robust through partnerships with other institutions or through a strong online provision. This is counter to our current conception of schools as a fundamental element of schooling and an appropriate unit around which to structure state interaction with learners. It may be worth examining the assumption that bricks and mortar schools will continue to be at the heart of education, and exploring alternative mechanisms for distributing state support for learning or effecting national policy interventions.

A second theme throughout the research has been the separation of content from teaching or accreditation. In particular, there is a strong trend towards making educational resources freely available online, whether funded by institutions as in the case of the OpenCourseWare consortium or by individuals as in the case of many contributors to (for example) http://5min.com. There is a wealth of educational content available: however, much of it is not necessarily encountered with a teacher, nor is it necessarily able to lead to a qualification. This raises a number of questions, many of which would fall within policy-makers’ sphere of interest. How do learners gain recognition and acknowledgement for their effort in engaging with this content? What is the role of the teacher if they are no longer as able to mediate the content with which learners engage? If there is a rise in paid-for accreditation services, how is accountability ensured and regulation established? These questions will need to have been considered if the effects of this disaggregation are to be managed well.

The third relevant theme arising from the research is effects of horizontal and vertical integration of the education market on the educational landscape. The possibility of a single commercial publisher being in a position to supply a physical learning environment, design the curriculum followed in that environment and award qualifications to learners based on that curriculum is now a reality following Pearson’s investments in schools in China and in Edexcel. This vertical integration raises questions again about the role of the private sector in the provision of a public good, and the ways in which a single provider might eventually be in a position, through providing all aspects of an educational experience, to distort the market in their interest, rather than in the interests of learners or wider society. Horizontal integration within the education market raises different but related questions of accountability and transparency, as areas previously assumed to be unrelated become part of a corporate provider’s portfolio of interests. The private sector has little motivation for making these connections and interests transparent: it would benefit the sector as a whole for policy to be active in monitoring the interconnections between interests within the education market.

The outcomes of this research effort also suggest three considerations for the exploration of educational futures. First, contributors noted that any discussion of technology in education and the role it may play in future developments ought to look both at its impacts at the ‘micro’ level of individual learners’ interactions with technology, and at the ‘macro’ level of the institutions developing or responding to new technologies. Focussing on one or the other would lead to a distorted and unrealistic view of the effects that might be expected from new educational technologies. Second, many interviewees noted that useful educational futures would foreground the likely decrease in public funding and its effect on resources available to education, as this would challenge many of the structures and mechanisms that currently effect educational provision. Finally, and most importantly, discussions on the future of education ought to make every effort to incorporate and acknowledge the values and goals that underpin education, as these ultimately will inform whether or not education is judged to be successful in the future.

Appendix 1: Activities undertaken within the Challenge

The Challenge is intended to help the Beyond Current Horizons programme understand the following overarching question:

• How might education delivery be structured and organised in 2025 in the light of changes in

o    public/private relationships and

o    development of digital and bio technologies?

Specifically, the work commissioned in this challenge aimed to illustrate:

• Key trends in the relationships between state, private and third sector provision of public services
• Key uncertainties and potential discontinuities within this domain
• How these trends potentially intersect with developments in science and technology
• The range of potential futures these trends might point to from the present to 2025-2050

Work was initially intended to be commissioned under this Challenge from July 2008 under the leadership of an external academic, on the same model as the other four Challenges within the BCH programme. However, the original Challenge lead resigned from the role in September 2008 due to pressing professional commitments. Subsequently, Futurelab have undertook the commissioning of papers, under a revised plan that reflected the compressed timescale and enabled this Challenge to meet its milestones at the same point in the programme as the other four Challenges. The revised plan was been approved by the BCH Programme Board and the DCSF.

• This revised plan comprised the following activities:
• Commissioning 4 substantive reviews in key thematic areas:

o    Public/private relationships in education

o    Existing educational provision and digital technologies: political economy, new models of delivery and developing markets

o    The digital landscape and new education providers

o    The relationships between health and education providers

• Conducting a series of interviews with leading thinkers and practitioners in industry, academia and policy sectors
• Running an event to bring together research, industry and policy sectors to identify emergent and future trends in public/private/third sector provision.

The industry, academia and policy interviews (Oct – Nov 2008)

In addition to commissioning the reviews described above, this Challenge drew on interviews carried out with individuals working at the intersection of public and private sector education provision: this reflects the comparative lack of academic evidence on the relationship between these sectors with regard to the delivery of education, and furnishes the programme with a selection of current concerns and forward-oriented insights from those shaping and understanding the interactions between these three sectors.

These interviews informed the commissioned reviews. Where the interviewee’s approval has been obtained, the transcripts will also be made available as standalone resources.

The event (November 2008)

On the 19^th November 2008 an event took place at the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining (http://www.iom3.org/content/location-map) which brought together a range of attendees from policy, academia and industry to examine the broad questions underpinning this Challenge. How might the education ‘market’ might be changed by the development of new digital education platforms – for example, what ‘new’ education providers might emerge through the development of online offerings? What relationships between commercial providers and mainstream educational institutions might develop? Is there a future for ‘open’ education resources? How might local and global education provision and governance change in the context of online educational resources? What relationship between public and private provision might develop?

Themes and key interactions between private, state and third sectors were identified by participants in this event: these were summarised from notes and transcripts by Helen Beetham and are incorporated in the synoptic report above.

Participating in the event were:

• Richard Sandford (facilitator), Futurelab
• David Istance, OECD, CERI
• Andreia Santos, Open University
• Julian Sefton-Green, Freelance/Futurelab
• Jeremy Silver, outgoing CEO Sibelius
• Tim Tarrant, TDA
• Steve Taylor, Stripey Design
• Ed Tranham, Meissa Limited

Aims and agenda

The Challenge 5 Event was organised with the aim of bringing together key thinkers in the Challenge area and eliciting ideas that might not yet be visible in the published literature of the field, as well as providing an opportunity to cross-check issues emerging from commissioned reviews. The overall aim, as with all Challenge Events, was to support the construction of coherent, robust and relevant scenarios of alternative educational futures.

The agenda followed the two organising themes of the Challenge:

• to describe some of the social and political factors shaping the future delivery of education, particularly shaping the likely balance between public and private sector provision
• to review some of the relevant technological (digital and biological) trends and describe their relationships with the social and political factors shaping the future delivery of education

Appendix 2: Work commissioned under the Challenge

Public/private relationships in education (Faizal Farook)

This review is specifically concerned with understanding the current trends and potential future trajectories of public/private relationships in education, through a review of the existing evidence and current trends centred around the following indicative questions relating to the development of educational provision over the next 10-15 years:

• Who takes responsibility for ensuring access to education – individual/state/ community/workplace?  Where does this responsibility lie today? How might this change over the coming years? What might lead to these changes?
• What types of education provision may be offered by the state and what by other bodies – private sector/individual/community/voluntary?
• What sort of structural institutional relationships pertain today and which might develop in managing and delivering education in different configurations of state/private/third sector relationships?
• What curriculum implications might ensure from any changes in provision?
• What workforce is implied by any changes?
• What financial arrangements might be developed to enable new forms of education delivery – vouchers/ local schemes/ local providers?
• What risks might emerge for which groups from these models of provision?
• How does accreditation and certification play out?

Existing educational provision and digital technologies: political economy, new models of delivery and developing markets (Julian Sefton-Green)

This review is concerned with understanding the way in which developments in digital technologies – both in terms of the technology industry and the resources that it develops – might change the way in which mainstream education is ‘delivered’. It focuses around two inter-related but distinct subthemes: firstly, the relationship between the existing digital technology industry and state education, and secondly, the ways in which digital technology platforms create opportunities for this education ‘industry’ itself to change its mode and purpose of delivery. As before, this is explored through a review of the existing evidence and current trends that relate to the development of educational provision over the next 10-15 years with respect to the following issues:

• What are the relationships between digital technology industries and education provision at present? How might these develop in future?
• How are the design and implementation of digital technologies for education by commercial companies shaping delivery of education?
• To what extent do the commercial companies developing digital tools promote or facilitate particular models and ideas of education?
• How/does the involvement of digital technology industries in education change the relationship between schools and students – to what extent are students seen as a market or potential future consumers?
• How does free, libre, open source software compare with these approaches? Are there characteristic differences between these and proprietary/commercial suppliers?
• What different models of provision are offered by free, libre and open source development approaches? What are the limits or possibilities offered by these?
• How are existing education providers (schools/universities) likely to ‘deliver’ education differently through the use of online resources
• Will online resources enable education providers to identify new markets and extend their existing remit?
• What new models of delivery may be enabled by digital technologies? Might these models allow them to meet the needs of those they already serve differently?
• Might new models of provision enable existing providers to develop new funding streams – what are the implications of this for the ‘public good’ of education?
• What new opportunities do digital technologies offer to voluntary/ informal education sectors?
• Are there going to be different levels of ‘access’ to education for different people using different tools – i.e. those who have access to one sort of platform get one sort of access etc.

The digital landscape and new education providers (Briony Greenhill)

This review is concerned with understanding the role that may be played in educational provision by organisations and sectors who are currently rarely considered part of mainstream educational provision, or by completely new arrangements of educational provision. It is intended to help the BCH programme understand what new providers might enter the education arena and the sorts of institutional, financial, curricular and assessment relationships that might emerge.

• What new ‘providers’ of education are enabled by the development of web and other technologies – e.g. school of everything, 5min, you tube, homeschooling networks, commercial providers providing customer training and support
• What happens to the traditional publishing industry – how might organisations like Pearson, the Guardian and others develop?
• What happens with existing broadcasters with public service remit – what sort of educational provision might they develop?
• How might digital technologies enable workplace training and education providers to offer new models of learning?
• Might open source models of education and communities of learning flourish – and in what ways might these lead to new forms of provision?
• What are the implications of new providers for curriculum and assessment – what new offers might these providers make to learners?
• What forms of accreditation and development currently exist and might be developed in a diverse landscape of provision?
• How might learners navigate these different providers?
• What are the implications for ownership of knowledge and resources of developments in online provision from diverse parties – for example, for educational provision in Second Life, what ownership of IP models may develop?

The relationships between health and education providers (Nick Lee)

This is a broadly speculative piece exploring the potential relationships between health and education sectors in the design and delivery of education, considering in particular how the pharmaceutical industry currently relates to medical professionals and exploring whether there are potential indications there of how similar relationships might develop with education professionals. It should also explore the current relationships between the private sector (including digital technology companies) and education, and examine how the pharmaceutical industry might develop similar relationships. In particular, current attempts to site discourses of ‘wellbeing’ within formal education are be examined in light of developments within cosmetic pharmacology and neuroscience. How might pharmaceutical companies come to be involved in state education – in what roles? And what relationships might develop between pharmaceutical companies and individuals/professionals working in the education sector – what new codes of practice might emerge?

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation

http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/educationandinspectionsact/docs/Guide%20to%20the%20Education%20and%20Inspections%20Act.pdf

http://www.dius.gov.uk/publications/worldclassskills.pdf

http://www.intellectuk.org/

Futurelab has received funding from Microsoft’s Partners in Learning scheme to support its Enquiring Minds research programme

http://www.standards.dfes.gov.uk/academies/what_are_academies/?version=1

“Academies, Trusts and Higher Education: Prospectus”: DFES 2007 (http://www.standards.dfes.gov.uk/academies/pdf/AcademiesTrustProspectus.pdf?version=1)

http://www.thersa.org/projects/education-legacy/rsa-academy—tipton

http://www.arkonline.org/

For example, the Open University’s OpenLearn project (http://labspace.open.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=4341), itself part of a wider European effort (MORIL), or the MIT Open Courseware initiative.

http://www.schoolofeverything.com/

http://www.5min.com/

http://www.instructables.com/

http://www.youtube.com/

http://www.gemseducation.com/

http://www.edisonschools.com/ in the US, http://www.edisonlearning.net/ in the UK

http://www.kunskapsskolan.se/foretaget/inenglish.4.1d32e45f86b8ae04c7fff213.html

See for example, http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB112604287494033169.html, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/16/us/complex-calculations-on-academics.html and Saltman , K.(2005), “The Edison Schools: Corporate Schooling and the Assault on Public Education” Routledge (ISBN: 978-0-415-95046-6)

http://www.ssat-inet.net/aboutus/sponsorus/ibpn.aspx

For example, Sir Bernard Lovell School in Bristol: http://www.sirbernardlovell.s-gloucs.sch.uk/v4/internationalism.php

“Pupil characteristics and class sizes in maintained schools in England, January 2008″ DCSF 2008 (http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000786/SFR_09_2008.pdf)

For example, the Bolnore School Group (http://www.bolnoreschoolgroup.org/) and Elmgreen Sceondary School (http://www.elmgreenschool.com/)

http://www.youngfoundation.org/home/themes/studio-schools, http://launchpad.youngfoundation.org/fund/learning-launchpad/events/studio-schools

Speech by Gordon Brown, May 2009 (text at http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page19209)

http://www.govtoday.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=354:morgan-action-to-ensure-childrens-education-a-welfare&catid=52:sustainable-communities&Itemid=21,  http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2009/jun/05/home-schooling-education-crack-down, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/7838783.stm

http://www.firstcollege.co.uk/

http://www.briteschool.co.uk/

http://www.interhigh.co.uk

http://www.tutors-international.com

http://www.un-gaid.org/

http://www.uopeople.org/

Report of the Expert Group on Assessment, DCSF 2009, ref: DCSF-00532-2009 (http://publications.dcsf.gov.uk//DownloadHandler.aspx?ProductId=DCSF-00532-2009&VariantID=Report+of+the+Expert+Group+on+Assessment+PDF&)

“Annual qualifications market report”, Ofqual 2009 ( http://www.ofqual.gov.uk/files/09-4141-annual-qualifications-market-report-april-2009.pdf)

Ofqual 2009

“Review of Advanced E-Assessment Techniques”, JISC 2009 (http://www.jisc.ac.uk/media/documents/projects/raeatfinalreportpdf.pdf)

For example, Wandsworth Council halted their scheme in 1996 (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/councils-pressure-ministers-to-drop-nursery-voucher-scheme-1357165.html)

For example, Explore Learning have a branch in Sainsbury’s supermarket in Hampton

F0r example,  Ideastore (http://www.ideastore.co.uk/)

http://www.itpro.co.uk/603639/becta-open-source-and-education-too-little-too-late

For example, MIT (http://ocw.mit.edu) and Stanford, Utah State (http://ocw.usu.edu/)

See for example the Moril project at http://oer.issuelab.org/sd_clicks/download2/towards_european_wide_quality_and_benchmarking_of_open_educational_resources

http://www.downes.ca/cgi-bin/page.cgi?post=33401

Innovation in the Knowledge Economy, 2004: http://www.oecd.org/LongAbstract/0,3425,en_2649_39263294_31658285_1_1_1_1,00.html

Zittrain, 2008, “The Future of the Internet and how to stop it”, Yale University Press (available at http://futureoftheinternet.org/)

http://www.bbcactive.com/

Channel 4’s commissioning strategy for education content can be seen here: http://www.channel4.com/corporate/4producers/commissioning/4learning_2.html

For example,  http://backstage.bbc.co.uk/news/archives/2009/01/bettr_and_teach_1.html

In many parts of the Humanities and the Social Sciences the term ‘design’ has, quite recently, come into widespread use. Certainly that is the case, among others, in communication and in education. As with any term that suddenly acquires fashionability, one needs to ask: ‘what are the reasons?’ and ‘is this more than mere fashion?’ Might the use of the term be an indicator of corresponding changes in the larger social environment? From a historical perspective of these areas, say over the last 70 to 80 years, it is possible to trace a path which starts with convention and adherence to convention – a period from the 1930sinto the late 1950s, solidly founded on power and the working of power in communities. From the 1960s on and into the mid 1980s we saw a move to critique. In education, critique – as in ‘being a critical reader’- has settled into a near commonsense mainstream position. Now, at the beginning of the 21^st century, design is seemingly challenging to become a prominent, maybe the central, term in this respect.

To take two key concepts – text and knowledge - as examples. Texts, whether as essay, report, or ’story’, used to be composed, in line with relatively well understood and settled generic conventions as a guide. Then it seemed to become essential to begin questioning the processes of composition, to subject the status of the generic conventions to critique, to challenge the power that seemed manifested in the processes and conventions, as they seemed to work to the benefit of some and to the detriment of others. Critique works in relation to stable environments, and its task is to bring these into crisis. Environments marked by instability, provisionality, and fluidity do not lend themselves to critique; such environments demand the shaping force of design.

In contemporary conditions knowledge is made: in wikis, in blogs, but also – without fuss or notice – in everyday conversation, in instances of entirely commonplace, unremarkable, banal interaction. Canonical knowledge is challenged everywhere and under attack: whether in the natural sciences – witness the rows around theories of evolution vs ‘intelligent design’ or in any domain of social life. Canonical representations of knowledge have become unstable, whether as mode (writing vs image) or as genre (the essay vs the narrative or the cartoon, etc): writing as the canonical mode par excellence previously is giving way to representation as image. The school is given the task of upholding canonical forms of knowledge (and canonical forms of representation, eg through the National Literacy Strategy); though without the support of a clear direction from society, never mind that of a state which faces the plurality of voices of a profoundly diverse society. Universities are not immune to these conditions: Wikipedia appears as source of reference in student work – even at PhD level – with other internet sites and alongside the canonical media of the book and the journal.

Knowledge and meaning, as much as the texts and objects which are their material realizations, are beginning to be seen as the outcomes of processes of design. Education, founded on knowledge, rests on design, its requirements and principles, whether overtly acknowledged or implicitly practiced. That is the case in relation to the design of environments of education, environments of learning and teaching, of materials and of the media involved. Design is at issue in the shaping of the social relations of pedagogy as in the social relations embedded in curricula. Design is the arrangement of an ensemble: of an object to be worked on or with, of a tool for an action with or on the object, integrated in specific ways into the capacities and affordances of the human body, a body with a history of experience of other, prior social processes, and subject more or less, and in different ways, to social regulation of the process. The design of a learning environment configures relations of body and tool, of tool and object; it also configures relations of affect. The design of, say, a textbook, is more than graphic design: it is the design of a complex ensemble, of an environment of social processes and configurations of social relations, of social purposes, goals, aims, tasks; and of affect.

There is a multiplicity of social reasons for the emergence of design as a metaphor for contemporary knowledge production, creativity and communication: instability of social environments (ie the fragmentation, disappearance of stable, reliable, ‘accepted’ conventions), the strong insistence and ‘assumption’ of agency by individuals – including children at ever younger ages (a result of the dominance of the market rather than the state as the major social/political force, with a change from notions of social responsibility to individual choice), the multiplicity of resources available in shaping realizations of meaning, including the meanings of identity. The instability of social environments has removed clear models for action, behaviour, etc and requires that individuals take responsibility for their actions. The assumption of individual agency - fostered and even forced by the state and fostered and urged by the market – means that the shaping of individual identity becomes a matter of individual design. The multiplicity of resources offered by the market provides the means for the individual’s shaping of identity – though with means provided by the market – and makes it a requirement that individuals assume responsibility for their shaping of meaning in their social environments.

Looking back

Educational media, such as textbooks, have undergone major changes over the last century (Bezemer and Kress, 2008; Bezemer and Kress, in press). Society has changed, curriculum and pedagogy have changed in line with social changes, consequently textbooks have changed, both in ‘look’ and in ‘content’. If we compare a textbook published in 1930 with one published more recently, we can see – from the point of view of content – that the subject now includes material on ‘popular’ culture and media; pedagogically, there are now requirements to engage with these materials in groups, much more than before. But we can also see the semiotic work of design that has been done. There are full colour images on almost every page, both photographs and drawings, the layout of a text consisting of writing and image on the page now configured as a site of display, a site of appearance, could not have been imagined in 1930.

What has changed, in other words, is not just subject-content, not just the tasks which are set up for learners so as to engage with subject knowledge; what has changed is how these pedagogic interests are graphically realized on paper. Or rather, the ‘look’, the layout, the arrangement of the site of appearance is a graphic/visual realization of new social relations between the social participants in educational environments. The ordering, the arrangement of materials using the space of a page or screen is done from the perspective of an educator/rhetor, who has an eye equally on ‘own interest’, on ‘audience’, ‘phenomenon to be communicated’, ‘broader social environment’, ‘effect of the arrangement’; in other words it instantiates the educational purposes in the design of the materials.

Designers use the resources for making meaning which are available and apt to serve their educational interests. The category of textbook designer includes authors as well as illustrators, editors, typesetters, and other professionals. Each of these professionals has available and uses specific resources with different potentials and constraints. Different resources – modes, genres, discourses – are apt for doing specific kinds of ontological, epistemological or pedagogic work. Professionals in this field potentially operate as teams, as an ‘ensemble’ and so bring their contribution to the overall design. Increasingly now teachers themselves act as rhetors/designers of digitally mediated materials, thus bringing their interests and agency into this semiotic work (Jewitt, 2008).

Figures 1 and 2 show two examples from Science textbooks which illustrate the range of changes in design that have taken place over the last 70 years or so. One example is from a Science textbook from 1935, the other one is from 2002. In both textbooks images are used to depict parts of the human body with writing directly attached to ‘anchor’ the images. But the placement of these ‘chunks’ on the page is different. In the 1935 textbook, placement seems to have followed the ‘traditional’ principle of ‘insert-Figure X-about-here’. This principle suggests that writing is the central means of conveying meaning and is the major component of the text; image is subordinate to that. In the contemporary textbook, writing and image are placed in parallel columns. This principle suggests that writing and image are on an equal footing. In other words, the status relation between image and writing has shifted from an unequal to an equal position. Ontologically, this implies a shift in the valuation of modes and knowledge: from an ontology in which knowledge constructed in writing dominates over knowledge constructed in image, to an ontology in which these bases for knowledge have equal standing.

Figure 1: Excerpt from Fairbrother, Nightingale and Wyeth, 1935, pp161-162.

Figure 2: Drawing after Science Education Group, 2002, pp90-91.

These different layouts have different effects. Most immediately, this has directional implications: in the 1935 example, the writing makes reference to the image at the beginning and at the end of the opening paragraph of a section on ‘the alimentary canal’. In between, the reader will have had to turn the page. Less immediately it has effects on engagement for learning, encouraging different modes of reading, different modes of engagement. It says ‘attend to this first and that after’. In other words, this layout does not facilitate a ‘parallel reading’ in the way layout does in the 2002 example. In the 2002 example, the layout steers the reader into a mode of a ‘back-and-forth’ movement. It is a mode of engagement of ‘attend to these as equally significant; read them in mutual interaction’. In the example from the 1935, the layout steers the reader into a ‘first-then’ mode of reading. In the 2002 example, the page on which chunks are laid out is itself part of a larger structure, that of the two-page-spread. Again, this stands in contrast to the 1935 textbooks, where text-as-writing was ‘pushed’ onto pages without much attention to how this played out spatially. What mattered was not where on the page a sign appeared, but where it was positioned in a sequence. The two-page spread is organized as a spatial unit, which is linked to a unit of time not present on the page, a ‘lesson’; the chapter in the old textbook is organized as a unit of ‘content’.

Looking sideways: a Japanese design

Figure 3 shows an example taken from a Japanese Science textbook published in 2006. The excerpt also deals with human digestion. It uses a range of modal resources to represent the absorption of food, involving the breaking down of food molecules as a result of the action of enzymes coming from organs located somewhere in the body. In the English textbook shown in Figure 2, the curricular material dealt with had led to two different accounts: image focused on spatial arrangement and an ordering of entities such as ‘organs’. It was a ‘physical’ account, the physiology of digestion, showing material features such as ’size’, ’shape’, and ‘links’ between organs. The writing focused on processes, ‘flowing’ ‘chewing’, ‘breaking down’, ‘absorbing’; and entities such as ‘food chains’, ‘food webs’. It was a ‘bio-chemical’ account, detailing entities such as ‘energy’, ‘complex organic chemicals’ , ‘large complex molecules’, fats’, ‘proteins’, ‘carbohydrates’.

Figure 3: Drawing after Miura et al, 2006, pp106-107.

In the Japanese excerpt by contrast, image and writing are not separated out in that way. Image is literally ‘all over’ the page, visually dominating it. Image is used to convey both the physiological account and the bio-chemical one. Writing offers one route, a key to reading the visual parts of the text, but the visual text may also offer a key to reading the written part of the overall text. These texts may lead learners to attend and to engage differently and in this play a different role for different readers at different stages of the learning process. The overall text, in other words, offers inroads into an understanding of human digestion both via writing and via images. Students can choose for themselves which path to follow at which point in their encounter with this text and at different stages in the process of learning. When they first encounter the topic they might rely more heavily on the visual text; when they revise the topic for their exam they might then rely more heavily on the written account.

Two points need to be noted which do not appear readily by looking at the design of the contemporary English material alone. The first point is that it seemed that in designing the English textbook, writing was chosen for process-oriented content and that image was chosen for static, nominal entities and spatial relations or connections. It might seem that this follows an inherent potential, an affordance, in the two modes. The Japanese example clearly demonstrates that that is not the case. The second point is that these materials were designed in an entirely different society to that of the English book. We need to take our own principle seriously that design is the materialization of social givens. One thing we do know is that the semiotic and cultural resources, the semiotic histories, of Japanese society are different to those of English. For one thing – and this is a major factor – the script system(s) of Japanese are entirely different to the English, and much more visually oriented. This is bound to lead to a profoundly different attitude to the potentials of visual modes in Japanese design than in English.

While we have not encountered such a functional distribution of modes in English textbooks as in the Japanese example, we have seen distinctively different uses of image and writing in English information books. Here we have in mind, for instance, the books produced by Dorling & Kindersley. Unlike textbooks, information books do not construct a formal curriculum. Usually they are bought by parents, not teachers, though they are found in school libraries. Very similar multimodal designs are common in magazines for teenagers. Indeed the distinction of ‘types of design’ is becoming very blurry as we mentioned earlier: the boundaries between ‘informal’ and ‘formal’ social spaces are increasingly becoming blurred. The boundaries between the design of the English Science textbook and that of the English information book are a good case in point: the increasing approximation of design marks a rapidly increasing disintegration of the social domains of work and entertainment. It is interesting to speculate where the end point of this process will be.

Looking forward: a multimedia design

Design in education increasingly relies on the facilities of digital media. On the screen, moving image and speech can be used alongside or instead of writing. These modes afford a whole set of varied resources for the representation of school subjects. In other words, ‘translations’ and ‘transductions’ from one mode to another can now be made with relative ease; at relatively low ‘cost’ (Kress, 2003). The textbook may ‘transduct’ artefacts and actions into writing and image; on the web, artefacts and actions may be transducted into moving image and speech, as the screenshot below, Figure 4, shows. It is a still from an animation on rotational transformations. The ’scene’ uses several modes – it shows through the use of image; it tells through speech; and it describes through writing – how to rotate an angle. Below the image of the protractor there is a written textual element; it is read out aloud – performed – so it is also present in the mode of speech. The text reads as follows.

Figure 4: Screenshot from lgfl.skoool.co.uk, retrieved 1 August 2007.

“Put pointer of compass on point ‘a’. Open out compass to length of ‘ac’. Draw a curve which passes through ‘c’. This ensures that the length of the lines in the image will be the same as in the original triangle. This makes sure that the length of ‘ac’ (the image) is the same as ‘ac’ (the original) because the size of an object doesn’t change during rotation”.

Here there is transduction from artefact (the compass, the mode of 3D material entities) to writing, with effects similar to those discussed before. These affect the specificity and generality of the content, as well as having effects on ordering. The voice-over reading of the written ’script’ uses speech for the transduction of the modes of artefact and action. The mode of moving image is used for the transduction of action. In this example, ‘pitch as tone’ is used to foreground particular lexical items; in the written text-element foregrounding is done by syntax.

Below is our transcript of the voice-over version; we have marked the boundaries between intonation units using a double slash, and we have underlined the items where the major pitch movement occurs (a ‘fall’ in each case). The element with the major pitch movement marks it as providing ‘new information’. This creates a contrast of ‘given’ and ‘new’ information within each ‘information unit’ (cf. Halliday, 1967).

Put pointer of compass // on point a //. Open out // compass to length of a c //.

Draw a curve // which passes through c //. This ensures // that the length of the lines in the image // will be the same as in the original triangle //. This makes sure // that the length of a c // the image // is the same as a c // the original //. Because the size // of an object // doesn’t change during rotation //.

If we compare the written and the spoken text-elements, we see that the two modes provide distinctive readings and, with that, different potentials for learning, in each case. In the written segment, the first three sentences draw the reader’s attention to the first-mentioned element – the action to be performed: put, open out, draw – and to the (imperative) mood, foregrounding action as command. In the spoken version, the listener’s attention is drawn to the object involved – ‘compass’; location – ‘point a’; extent of action – ‘out’; etc. What ensues is a contrapuntal organization, with the mode of writing highlighting action-as-commands – put, open out, draw - and the mode of speech highlighting objects and attendant circumstances – location, shape.

In this example there is also use of the mode of moving image, which combines the affordances of still image and its spatial organization with temporal organization: it unfolds in time. That brings distinct increases in semiotic resources and therefore in potentials for design. Elements can now appear and disappear, and through that, movement can be suggested. Above all, the viewer or reader’s attention can be shaped. In the scene that we are looking at here, the first element to appear is the triangle. Then the compass appears, placed with its pointer at ‘A’. Then two movements take place: the ‘opening out’ of the compass and the inscription of a curve. Then the compass disappears again. In this, the moving image represents the demonstration of how to use a compass rather differently from the written and spoken text-elements. For instance, it is specific about what ‘opening out’ and ‘drawing a curve’ entails. ‘Drawing a curve’ is displayed as a movement of the compass whereby one of its legs retains its position and the other leg, which leaves a trace, makes a gentle, clockwise turn.

The example shows that as a multiplicity of modes – image, writing, speech and moving image – become available, the potential for design alters radically. Resources with particular affordances become available for specific use; here, for instance, lexis or depiction bring implications for generality or specificity; syntactic resources have implications for variable arrangements of entities, as well as means for the expression of the social relations of the maker of a message and its ‘reader’ – the relation of ‘command’ for instance. For the designer of the learning materials the question becomes one of ‘aptness‘ of the resources for the specific occasion. There are implications for pedagogy: commands are given in the modes of writing and speech; in the mode of (moving) image, actors can be backgrounded; in the mode of (still) image, reading paths are established by the viewer or learner, while in moving image, reading paths are established by the designer. These design decisions concerning the use of modes are in effect materializations and ‘ratifications’ of pedagogic designs and they in turn are realizations of social organizations and arrangements. The design strongly sets the ‘ground’ for engagement and learning.

Young people’s participation in design

Design is no longer exclusively the realm of professional textbook makers, as in the examples discussed so far, or of teachers alone. Participation in design now best describes the characteristics of communication, and not only in schools. That has profound effects on knowledge production. Social change has led to an emphasis on the agentive action of all participants in communication, even if differentially. Communication needs to be seen as a two stage process, with an initiator/rhetor producing a message as the ‘ground’ and an interpreter, on the basis of the ‘ground’, constructing a ‘prompt’ for interpretation, leading to the meaning which the interpreter takes from that message. It means that design takes place twice: at the point of the making of the message as the ‘ground’ and at the point of interpreting the ‘prompt’. Young people act out of such understandings of their power in communication in design and knowledge production (Pahl, 1999; Stein, 2003). In other words, the social changes mentioned, have begun to manifest themselves in an assumption on the part of the young of their significant agency in the domain of their own cultural production. The production of knowledge is inseparable from the production of signs-as-text. Semiotic production is, at one and the same time, epistemological and ontological production. The question in each case is: whose agency is at work?

These social and representational changes are evident in contemporary media as well: the participatory affordances of current media technologies act to blur former distinctions of production and consumption, of writing and reading. The simultaneously global and local ‘reach’ of media challenges the boundaries of communities global and local, with severe effects on genres; it mixes contents both global and local; ubiquity of access to information, convergence of media and connectivity in the sphere of individual lives entails that occasions of and resources for knowledge production and creativity are not tied to particular sites and times. Multimodality, representations in many modes, allows and demands the choice of apt communicational resources in all situations.

The newer individual dispositions toward agency have deep effects on design processes. All aspects of the domain of meaning are drawn into the new social givens, with far-reaching effects. In relation to the making of texts, for instance, questions of ‘authenticity’ and authorship have changed profoundly. In downloading, ‘mixing’, cutting and pasting, ’sampling’, re-contextualization, questions such as “where did this come from?” “Who is the original/originating author” seem not the issue. Much like the use, in former times, of a ruined church or monastic building as a quarry, as a source of building materials – a large stone here as a lintel, another there as part of a wall – texts are taken as ‘resources’ to be ‘mined’ for the making of new texts. There is an absolute need to understand the practices, epistemologies, aesthetics and ethics of contemporary forms of text design. At the moment these are discussed in terms of 19^th century models, with terms such as ‘plagiarism’ or ‘mere copying’ often too readily to hand: that is, the invocation of models from an era where conceptions of authorship were clear and legally buttressed. The notion of design and an elaboration of principles of design can give, instead, a relevant means of describing and analysing current principles of text-making underlying these practices by certain, generationally defined, groups.

At the moment the school is caught between traditional and contemporary conceptions of authority and agency in relation to production of knowledge, to the authoring of texts, the authority/canonicity of knowledge, and of semiotic forms much more generally. Political authority is contradictory: a demand for the new, for innovation and creativity, countered by anxieties around loss of control. But learning has long since left the confines of institutions such as school, university, and college, and forms of pedagogy have to accommodate to ‘life-long’, life-wide’ learning, that is, learning at all times, by those who demand that their interests be taken with utmost seriousness, in all sites, in all phases of professional and personal life. In school, many young people see themselves as authors of the knowledge they want and need, authors of the kinds of texts that meet their social, personal and affective needs – even though authored by processes which bring them into conflict with authority which is focused traditionally. In that they come into conflict with the sharply differing and contradictory conceptions and practices of the school. Conceptions of pedagogy held by ‘the school’ as institution are at loggerheads with those held – however implicitly – by those in school. In that stand-off, conceptions of pedagogy will need to be developed which accommodate the conflicting interests of generation, of power, of politics, and of a market-dominated economy. Clearly, the agency of learners has to be taken seriously and placed at the centre of pedagogic attention. Equally clearly, the insights, understandings, values, knowledges which are the results of centuries, even millennia, of social and cultural work cannot and should not suddenly be ditched.

Shaping the future of education

Three factors need to be held in mind in speculating about trends in design: agency and distributions of and claims to agency, the multiplicity of resources for making meaning available as resources for design, and the deep social and cultural diversity of contemporary societies. All three have social and semiotic aspects, that is, they bring social political and semiotic consequences.

Pedagogically, the agency and the centrality of learners as designers of texts and as designers and makers of their meanings, has to be the starting point of all considerations in education. It is unlikely that the claim by learners to agency in the processes of learning will abate over the next decade or so. This has consequences for institutional responses to such claims, and to a new conceptualization of the role of institutions in that process. We have made one suggestion, namely that an institution’s task can be the design of environments for learning and the shaping of the curricular ‘ground’ for the learners’ engagement.

Semiotically, text making will increasingly be, at all times, multimodally designed, arising from the specific interests of rhetor and interpreter. In such designs the affordances of all modes are judged and used in relation to that interest. The multiplicity of modal resources for imagining and implementing design link both with the agency of designers, both in the role of initiators and designers of messages and in the role of designers as interpreters of these messages. In political agendas focused on innovation and creativity, design as a prospective and therefore always necessarily innovative and transformative process will need to come more and more into the foreground of pedagogic attention.

The tasks of understanding the new givens of representation, communication, innovation and creativity lie with researchers and policy makers and the designers of pedagogies and curricula. That is, several institutions will need to be involved and aware of their respective competences and responsibilities. The claim and assumption of agency in design by learners of all kinds poses a profound challenge in terms of developing theories and practical means for understanding multimodal design. This is both in terms of means for valuing learners’ interests and meanings and in terms of criteria for evaluating meanings realized as multimodal ’semiotic objects’. In other words, theories of learning will need to refocus their metrics of value, evaluation, and assessment from criteria derived from authority and power to criteria oriented to understanding the principles applied in the learners’ design.

Captions

Figure 1: Excerpt from Fairbrother, Nightingale and Wyeth, 1935, pp161-162.

Figure 2: Drawing after Science Education Group, 2002, pp90-91.

Figure 3: Drawing after Miura et al, 2006, pp106-107.

Figure 4: Screenshot from lgfl.skoool.co.uk, retrieved 1 August 2007.

Bibliography

Bezemer, J. and Kress, G. (2008) Writing in multimodal texts: a social semiotic account of designs for learning. Written Communication, 25 (2), pp166-195 (Special Issue on Writing and New Media).

Bezemer, J. and Kress, G. (in press) Visualizing English: A Social Semiotic History of a School Subject. Visual Communication. Special Issue on Information Environments.

Brindle, K., Machin, R. and Thomas, P. (2002) Folens GCSE English for AQA/A. Dunstable, Folens.

Fairbrother, F., Nightingale, E. and Wyeth, F.J. (1935) General Science. Part III. London, G. Bell and Sons.

Jewitt, C. (2008) Technology, Literacy, Learning: A Multimodal Approach. London, Routlege.

Kress, G. (2003) Literacy in the new media age. London, Routlege.

Miura, N. et al (2006) New Science: Field 2, Volume 1 [Atarashii Kagaku 2 Bunya Jou]. Tokyo, Shoseki.

Pahl, K. (1999) Transformations: Children’s Meaning Making in Nursery Education. Stoke on Trent, Trentham Books.

Science Education Group (2002) Salters GCSE Science Y11. Oxford, Heinemann.

Stein, P. (2003) The Olifantsvlei fresh stories project. In: Jewitt, C. and Kress, G. (eds.) Multimodal Literacy. New York, Peter Lang, pp123-138.

Acknowledgements

This article draws on an ongoing research project, ‘Gains and Losses:

Changes in Representation, Knowledge and Pedagogy in Learning Resources’ (2007-2009), funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (RES-062-23-0224).

About the authors

Professor Gunther Kress

Institute of Education

Centre for Multimodal Research

20 Bedford Way

London WC1H 0AL

United Kingdom

phone:+44 20 7612 6502

fax     +44 20 7612 6177

email   g.kress@ioe.ac.uk

Dr Jeff Bezemer

Institute of Education

Centre for Multimodal Research

20 Bedford Way

London WC1H 0AL

United Kingdom

phone:+44 20 7612 6705

fax     +44 20 7612 6177

email   j.bezemer@ioe.ac.uk

Gunther Kress is Professor of Semiotics and Education at the Institute of Education, University of London. He is interested in questions of meaning and its semiotic realizations in interrelation with social and cultural organization. In his professional location, his focus is on learning and on the material shape of curricula and forms of pedagogy in a globalizing world. Among his recent books are Multimodal Discourse, Before Writing: Rethinking Paths to Literacy, Literacy in the New Media Age, and Reading Images: The Grammar of Visual Design.

Jeff Bezemer received his Master’s degree in Studies in Language and Culture and his PhD in Education from Tilburg University, Netherlands. He is Research Officer at the Institute of Education, Centre for Multimodal Research. His research is focused on representation and communication in educational settings. Recent publications, including articles in Written Communication and Linguistics and Education, also deal with multilingualism in immigrant settings.

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.