In ‘Who’s Your City?’ Richard Florida (2008) argues that despite the hype over ‘globablisation’, the ‘flat world’ (Friedmann, 2005) and the ‘death of distance’ (Cairncross, 1997), rather than becoming irrelevant, place is more important than ever before.  He suggests that because of the clustering of talent, innovation and creativity (Florida, 2002), places are growing more diverse and more specialised; hence, the world is ’spiky’ rather than flat.  This means that where a person lives is important to every facet of his/her life, affecting all others, including, in economic terms, the fact that it can determine employment opportunities available and income that can be earned.  However, while some individuals are very mobile and are able to choose where they live, others may not be able to exercise such choice and so may be relatively immobile. The opportunities that places offer need to be understood in their broader structural context – both geographically and historically, in accordance with the role that they play in economic, urban and regional systems.  Exponents of evolutionary economic geography argue that regional and local economic trajectories are shaped by historical and current circumstances.  Places carry their history with them, and factors such as sectoral mix, culture, and institutional performance can persist for a long time (Boschma, 2004).  Assets and economic histories of different areas have led to different sector and skill mixes and cultures of enterprise and innovation across the regions, so leading to diverse patterns of employment and productivity performance.  Hence, differences in sectoral development pathways, knowledge assets and local innovation systems are important in shaping future economic trajectories (Simmie et al, 2008). In relation to education, place might affect motivation and opportunities to learn in three main ways (Lupton, 2006).  First, neighbourhood effects may impact on the individual (as discussed later in this paper) through ‘place effects’, such as local labour market opportunities, area stigma and the quality of, and access to, educational facilities; and through ‘people effects’, such as peer groups, social networks and the presence or absence of role models.  To some extent the impact of neighbourhood effect may vary by age, but are likely to be particularly pronounced for older teenagers.  Secondly, the quality of schools and other educational institutions (ie school/institutional effectiveness) is likely to impact on the individual.  Hence, geographical variations in the quality of teaching, institutional resources and equipment, curriculum and pedagogy are likely to influence educational outcomes.  Indeed, there is evidence that households able to do so, are prepared to move to be within the catchment areas of ‘good’ schools, so inflating local house prices (Leech and Campos, 2003; Gibbons and Machin, 2003).  Thirdly, neighbourhood factors impact upon school composition and quality – pupil composition and teacher recruitment and retention are important factors here.

Sub-national variations in the quantity and quality of employment

National averages and trends disguise regional and sub-regional variations in the quantity and quality of employment.  These variations are the outcome of local, regional, national and international processes.  Many of these variations are long-standing and correlate with long-term industrial decline, broadly along ‘North-South’ lines at regional level (Martin, 1988; Erdem and Glyn, 2001).  The disparity in GVA growth rates between the best and worst performing regions has persisted for over eighty years (CLG, DTI and HM Treasury, 2006).  The lack of convergence between UK regions in employment rates (see Figure 1 for the situation in 2007, with an employment rate 11 percentage points higher in the South East than in Northern Ireland) and GVA has implications for the nature of the UK ‘regional problem’ (Fothergill, 2005). Within regions there have also been shifts in the quantity and quality of employment, most notably, a general trend towards spatial decentralisation of employment from inner city areas to urban peripheries and rural areas (Fothergill and Gudgin, 1982; Social Exclusion Unit, 2004).  This has implications for geographical access to employment opportunities, since the public transport infrastructure does not coincide with the economic geography of the 21^st century.

Figure 1:        Employment rates by qualification level, 2007 – regions and nations of the UK

Note: Regions and nations are ranked in ascending order on the total employment rate Source:         Labour Force Survey, 2007 Quantitative variations in numbers of employment opportunities are manifest in geographical differences in employment and non-employment, whereas qualitative variations are reflected in the nature of employment opportunities available and prospects for labour market advancement.  In general, ‘quantitative’ concerns about numbers of jobs tend to be greatest at times of rising unemployment when labour markets are slack.  Overall, however, in recent years there has been a general shift towards greater policy emphasis on ‘qualitative’ aspects of employment, while in analyses of worklessness the trend has been towards consideration of aspects of inactivity alongside unemployment. Traditionally, economic geographers have been most interested in sectoral variations in the composition of employment.  Historically, there were marked geographical variations in key sectors, reflecting local concentrations of raw materials (especially in mining and extractive industries) and specialist manufacturing traditions, which in some instances are reflected in area names (such as ‘The Potteries’ for the Stoke-on-Trent area).  Over time, however, with the loss of employment in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, and the increase in employment in services, sectoral differentials in employment structures over space have become less pronounced.  So regional variations in the sectoral composition of employment are less marked than formerly and rural economies now have a similar sectoral structure to urban ones (Countryside Agency, 2003).  Nevertheless, there remains considerable interest in sectoral variations in employment and in the context of the current recession attention has been focused on sectoral composition in order to provide intelligence on the vulnerability of local areas and sub-regions to the credit crunch and to the credit crunch and economic downturn (Oxford Economics, 2008; PACEC, 2008). Sub-national sectoral variations in employment are less marked than formerly, with the decline in many traditional areas of employment now well stabilised.  Yet there is still considerable interest in sectoral vulnerability to the credit crunch.  Figure 2 highlights that this may affect a number of new areas not previously considered vulnerable. For example, the focus of the initial impact of the credit crunch on banking and finance means that the City of London and the neighbouring borough of Tower Hamlets are at the top of the list.

Figure 2:        Vulnerability Index in Local Authorities (Top 15)

Source: from Oxford Economics (2008) Figure 3 shows a map prepared by PACEC (2008) for the Local Government Association (LGA) on the likely local distribution of the overall impact of a recession.  This map is based on an estimate of local employment change, and builds on data from the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s.  Again, it highlights that while some areas at high risk are longstanding areas associated with economic disadvantage, the focus on services as well as manufacturing provides a new geographical pattern.

Figure 3:        Local distribution of the likely overall impact of recession

Source: from Oxford Economics (2008) Transformation in the sectoral composition of jobs has had implications for the occupational and skills profiles of employment.  Theories of endogenous regional growth recognise the importance of high quality, knowledge-based jobs in driving economic growth. These theories explain the process by which city and regional economies grow via localised accumulation of knowledge, reinforced through external economies of scale achieved through ‘knowledge spillovers’ as workers interact with each other to increase local productivity (Duranton and Puga, 2004). Using data on occupation and earnings, analyses of the regional distribution of workplace employment in the UK over the period from 1997 to 2007 using the ‘quality of jobs’ framework proposed by Goos and Manning (2007) which measures ‘job quality’ in terms of monetary reward (ie in terms of median pay by occupation), show that whilst jobs have been created across the entire distribution of job quality, in almost all cases net new job creation has been skewed towards higher skilled occupations (Jones and Green, 2009).  However, London and the South East, which were already advantaged in terms of having the most higher skilled jobs, outperformed other regions in this respect  This regional gap is shown in Figure 4.  While some of these jobs are likely to be lost during recession, this trend towards greater professionalisation of employment is long-standing.

Figure 4:        The application of quality of jobs framework on employment by occupation and earnings at regional scale, 1997-2007

Source: from Jones and Green (2009) A more detailed examination of trends by sector reveals that the success of London and the South East has been achieved by building upon their already high skilled occupational base, particularly in areas such as finance, real estate and business related activities, where the majority of new jobs over the decade were created.  Additionally, the analyses reveal that regional differences in job quality are driven not by variations in the sectoral structure of employment, but by the occupational structure (ie high/low quality bias) within sector.  London’s advantage, for example, is largely derived from a high skilled occupational structure within all sectors.  Hence the attraction of such a large metropolitan labour market for ‘dual career households’.  Conversely, in peripheral rural areas the knowledge economy is more ’shallow’ and individuals face fewer and less varied employment opportunities. Moreover, the analysis of high quality jobs reveals the important role of the public sector in affecting regional differences (see Figure 5).  The relatively even spread of public sector employment across the UK (taken as a percentage of total regional employment) combined with the fact that differences in job quality between regions are much less pronounced in the public sector means that, in effect, the public sector plays an important role in ‘propping-up’ average job quality outside London and the South East (see also Hepworth et al, 2005); thereby reducing what would have been otherwise larger regional differences.

Figure 5:                    Percentage of high quality jobs in public rather than private sector by region, 1995-97 and 2005-07

Source: from Jones and Green (2009) Using a measure of employment polarisation which measures the degree to which employment is clustered at the top and bottom end of the ‘job quality’ distribution, increased levels of polarisation are apparent in most UK nations and regions. In effect, net positive numbers of jobs are being created at the top and bottom end of the skills distribution, with few jobs being created in the middle of the distribution.  London stands out from the rest as having not only the highest initial level of job polarisation, but also the highest degree of change towards increased polarisation. From a social as well as economic perspective the increasing tendency towards employment polarisation may lead to problems of increased economic inequality both within and between regions.  In this respect regional intervention may be rationalised on the grounds of promoting ‘equity’ (CLG, 2008). There are more jobs being created at the top and bottom of the earnings distribution than in the middle, with London being the most polarised region.  The ‘knowledge economy’ is shallower in peripheral rural areas than in large urban areas.  This has implications for the types of jobs that young people see adults working in locally and also for the range of employment opportunities that are available to them if they remain in their local area.  Core regions attract dual career households because of the quantity and quality of higher skilled employment opportunities that they offer (Green, 1997).  In turn, this has implications for school composition in different local areas.

The geography of labour markets

Much economic debate on labour markets focuses on national and supra-national level developments.  However, as outlined above, there are important variations in experience at regional and sub-regional scales – hence the relevance of a geographical perspective on labour markets.  This is not to deny an increasing interest in transnational links between regional labour markets.  The international migration of capital and labour is not a new phenomenon, but is now taking place at unprecedentedly high levels.  Labour market impacts are especially pronounced in terms of labour flows within the European Union. The penetration of immigrant labour beyond traditional migrant ‘gateways’ to smaller settlements and rural areas links regional and local labour markets transnationally to a greater extent than previously, and has implications for sub-national labour markets in both destination and origin countries. There is an ever increasing interest in transnational links between regional labour markets and the penetration of migrant labour beyond traditional migrant gateways.  The use of the term ‘the labour market’ suggests a unity that is often absent in practice.  A multiplicity of sub-markets exist, demarcated by various criteria such as occupation.  Geographical divisions of labour markets are largely a consequence of the monetary and psychological costs of extensive daily travel to work, and often much greater costs of migration between areas. Despite the interest in hyper-mobilities, tele-working and mobile working (see Felstead et al, 2005), as well as long distance weekly commuting, the majority of commuting journeys remain short in distance terms (Green and Owen, 2006) (especially if measured in terms of time spent).  However, there is increasingly less clarity about terms such as ‘usual residence’ and ‘usual workplace’. There are important sub-group differences in travel distances.  For instance, commuting journeys are shorter:

• for women than men
• for part-time workers than for full-time workers, and
• for unskilled workers compared with those in professional occupations (see Figure 6).

The relative costs of commuting are higher for less skilled and part-time workers, leading to less geographically extensive job searches and shorter travel-to-work distances than for more highly paid workers.  These differences between groups of workers are important in understanding the labour market behaviour of different sub-groups and are crucial for policy makers concerned with facilitating the matching of labour supply and demand.

Figure 6: Average commuting distance by occupation, 2001 – England and Wales

Source: from Green and Owen (2006) Labour market mismatches can take various forms, including:

• skills mismatches – when the skills that workers supply do not match those demanded by employers (see Kain, 1968; Houston, 2005), and
• spatial mismatches – the changing geography of employment and implications for access to work

Proponents of a ’segmented model’ of the labour market (see Morrison, 2005), who believe that ‘the local labour market’ consists of a number of spatially-defined sub-markets and who attribute concentrations of worklessness at a local scale primarily to deficiencies in highly localised demands for labour, conclude that to combat high non-employment rates in some local areas it is necessary to ‘take work to the workers’.  Conversely, proponents of a ’seamless model’ of the labour market, who contend that city-regions are single markets in which transactions between labour and capital take place regardless of the location of residence and employment sites, argue that ‘taking work to the workers’ will only have a short-term effect at best, because spatial labour markets are permeable and local residents will be subject to city-region wide competition for jobs – and that those with lowest educational attainment and poor skills will tend to lose out.  Hence, on the basis that job growth does not necessarily ‘trickle down’ to local residents, the solution is to raise aggregate demand for labour and to upgrade the skills of the workless in order that they are better able to compete for the jobs available.  This means that access to educational and training provision for those with low levels of attainment and poor skills is crucial. The importance of social and institutional factors in the formation and operation of labour markets suggest that local and regional labour markets are socially embedded and constitute institutional spaces in which formal and informal customs, norms and practices underpinning employment, working practices, labour relations, and wage setting processes are played out (Green, 2009).  These place-specific developments are very important (Peck, 1996).  They are the result of the interactions between employers’ practices, institutions, state policies and regional and local labour market histories.

For whom does geography matter most?

Jobs demanding higher level skills are open only to people with higher level skills (or those felt by employers to have the potential to be trained to fill such jobs).  Jobs demanding only low level skills are open to people with poor skills and to people with higher level skills if they are willing to ‘bump down’ in the labour market to fill them (Gordon, 1999).  This means that in terms of absolute numbers of jobs those with poor skills have a smaller pool of jobs available to them. Furthermore because of differences in monetary and material resources, people with poor skills generally tend to travel over shorter distances to work than those with higher level skills (as outlined above).  So from any given location, people with poor skills are likely to search and take up jobs over a spatially smaller area than their higher skilled counterparts.  Hence, geography matters most for those with poor skills: the quantity and quality of jobs available locally is of particular importance for them.  It is also salient to note here that local variations in employment rates for those with degree level qualifications (see Figure 7a) are more pronounced than for those with no qualifications (see Figure 7b).  So, while some highly skilled people operate in national and international labour markets, local residents with poor skills tend to confine their lives to the local area in which they live.  Indeed, in a review of the impact of new transport technologies on mobility over the last century Pooley et al (2006) argue that, despite new forms of transport, basic mobility aspirations have changed little since the late nineteenth century and travel times have remained remarkably constant.

Figure 7:        Employment rate for residents aged 25-49 years by qualification level, local authorities in England and Wales, 2001

a) high level qualifications b) no qualifications Source: from Green and Owen (2006), based on 2001 Census of Population data. Objectively, there are more opportunities available to residents in some areas than in others.  So, as outlined above, where people live matters.  However, when making decisions about employment and training, often people do not have full or perfect information.  Moreover, the information that they process comes through a perceptual filter.  Place is important here because where people are looking from affects what they see, or choose to see, and how they interpret and act upon it (Green and White, 2007): perceptions matter.  Consequently, ’subjective’ geographies of opportunity may be much more limited than ‘objective’ geographies of opportunity (Galster and Killen, 1995; Ritchie et al., 2005).  Over 20 years ago, a study of school-leavers in Birmingham found that job search tended to be limited to familiar localities, while there were accessible areas of the city where jobs were not sought (Quinn, 1986).  Likewise more recent research in Belfast has suggested that ‘bounded horizons’ and relative immobility continue to constrain the labour market behaviour of young people (Green et al, 2005). Hence while some people ‘transcend space’ in their aspirations and knowledge of employment opportunities, others are ‘trapped by space’ and confine themselves to a narrower set of opportunities.  Figures 8 and 9 set out how social networks operate in both instances. Place-based social networks and area attachment may contribute to ‘bounded horizons’, such that people may follow conventional opportunities in familiar locations. For young people especially, the influence of family and friends is one important factor here, with links outside the local area often helping young people to transcend space, while strong networks of family and friends within a tightly defined geographical area may lead to a tendency to look inwards to the immediate locality (Green and White, 2007).  Strong reliance on friends and family in shaping attitudes and aspirations can be a ‘way in’ to work. “I get loads of support from family and friends … It is harder for people without family” (18 year old, Hull)

Figure 8:        How social networks operate to enhance opportunity

Source: developed from Green and White (2007).

Figure 9: How social networks can operate as a constraint

Source: developed from Green and White (2007). The evidence suggests that there are spatial and temporal variations in localised outlooks and place identity.  In spatial terms, ‘neighbourhood’ matters most to those who are most disadvantaged, given their relative lack of resources to take up opportunities further afield.  Likewise, it has been argued that different population sub-groups may see the ‘neighbourhood’ in different ways, and that the importance of place identity may vary over the life course (Lupton, 2003; Forrest and Kearns, 2001).  The implication of this is that the ‘neighbourhood’ matters more for some people (especially young people) at some times in some places than for other people at other times and in other places. ‘Area’ (or ‘postcode’) is also a possible basis for employer discrimination – alongside individual characteristics such as gender, ethnicity and age.  However, although ‘postcode discrimination’ is often cited as a possible cause of ‘area effects’ (ie spatial variations in employment [or other life] chances) once compositional effects are considered (ie spatial variations in the characteristics of individuals that may influence the chances of employment [or other outcomes]) objective evidence is hard to find. There is evidence for self-attribution of discrimination on the basis of postcode in some areas (Lawless and Smith, 1998; Dewson, 2005), and this seems to be particularly strong in areas suffering persistent worklessness and poverty, with strong local identities associated with place-based social networks, and relatively low levels of residential mobility (Fletcher et al, 2008; Green and White, 2007).  In the light of the importance of history that has been emphasised above, it is also salient to note that area reputations may be long lasting and may outlive objective changes in neighbourhood characteristics (Robertson et al, 2008).  Although postcode discrimination may not be a widespread concern, negative impacts of area reputation and stigma may linger for some young people: “The reputation filters through to the mentality of the people.  They think ‘well I won’t go to school, ‘I won’t get a job’, etc” (16 year old female, Hull) How far young people think it is reasonable to commute is influenced to some extent by friends and family.  As illustrated by the following quotes: “I’d commute for an hour to find work – my Dad does the same” (18 year old, Walsall) “I want to work round here. All my mates work round here – they won’t look for work anywhere else” (17 year old, Hull) In some cases there remain expectations of working nearby – even if industry is no longer there (a situation indicative of ‘living in a time warp’): “We have always worked ‘here’; you don’t want to be going ‘there’ for work” (Project Manager in West Midlands)

Policy – devolving decision making

Given the focus of this paper on the importance of place a key question is: ‘What is the most appropriate geographical level (ie national, regional, sub-regional, local, neighbourhood, etc) for intervention in relation to employment and skills policies?’. In recent years there has been a greater emphasis than hitherto on the regional dimension of economic and skills policy in the UK, and the ‘region’ and ‘city-region’ have become increasingly significant levels of policy delivery and governance (see HM Treasury, DTI, ODPM, 2006).  The rationale for this is that devolution of decision-making to regional and sub-regional scales ensures that policy design and delivery is responsive to particular opportunities and challenges.  The logic is that while regional and sub-regional skills strategies should be shaped by national priorities, the relative balance between key aspects such as attracting and retaining talent, upgrading the skills of the current labour force and integrating hard-to-reach groups should reflect different local circumstances.  Moreover, there is increased emphasis on taking account of the spatial implications of economic development, with Regional Development Agencies in England now being required to produce an integrated economic development and spatial strategy.  This highlights the importance of the spatial dimension in linking considerations of economic opportunities and associated education and training provision. The local authority role in local economic development has been strengthened.  Again in England, local authorities have been charged to promote economic development through Local Area Agreements (LAAs).  Local government is being encouraged to set up local employer-led Employment and Skills Boards linking the skills and jobs agendas.  Looking ahead increasing emphasis is being placed on Multi-Area Agreements (MAAs) in order to promote sub-regional collaboration. Likewise, in relation to tackling worklessness, the emphasis has been for outreach to engage with those who are ‘hardest to help’ at neighbourhood level.  This is in keeping with a more general trend towards localisation in order that local issues and circumstances (such as the skills levels of the population, the nature of job opportunities available, physical accessibility to available opportunities, etc) are taken into account when formulating interventions.  Hence, a comparison of local employment strategies in Newham and Hull New Deal for Communities (NDC), areas designed to address high levels of worklessness (Sanderson et al, 2005), reveals that the former adopted a strongly supply-side approach, concentrating on action to address residents’ problems and to remove barriers to work, so allowing them to capitalise on employment opportunities in the wider labour market; while the latter took a more balanced approach, including developing skills and raising aspirations, an intermediate labour market policy to address the needs of the most disadvantaged and support for business start-ups. Regional, sub-regional and local partnership working lies at the heart of devolved policy design and delivery.  The emphasis is on close collaboration between partners to develop and deliver sub-regional and regional priorities in a seamless, customised and holistic fashion.  However, within a complex and dynamic field it has been suggested that institutional proliferation has at times threatened to swamp local economic development and skills policy within a web of organisational complexity (Nunn and Johnson, 2008) in a manner that causes confusion for employers, training providers, and individual workers and learners. Hence, the trend to devolution to sub-national level appears well established and may gather pace in prevailing economic circumstances, since: “In time of a recession, the need for devolution to sub-regions, including counties, functional economic areas, local council partnerships and individual local authorities becomes more obvious and more urgent” (PACEC, 2008, piii).

Some possible implications for the future of education

It seems likely that concerns about the impact of place on education opportunities and outcomes will continue.  Neighbourhood factors influence educational outcomes – in relation to peer influences, social capital, role models and economic opportunities available.  Some places are rich in such factors, whereas others are relatively poor.  This suggests that making policies ’sensitive to place differences’ is important.  In particular, from a policy perspective, it suggests that ensuring adequate provision of both conventional and less conventional ’spaces’ and opportunities for learning (eg in other community facilities) is likely to be particularly important in the most deprived neighbourhoods.  Moreover, there is also a role, as part of general educational experience, for taking individuals out of their local ‘comfort zone’ in order to provide an alternative perspective from the everyday norm – after all ‘where you are looking from affects what you see’ (see Green and White, 2007).  More generally, policies to improve conditions in the most deprived areas are likely to reap educational rewards, albeit indirectly. Lupton (2006) suggests that equalising the quality of schooling across neighbourhoods is important in narrowing the gap in educational attainment between individuals and places.  One way that this might be done is by devoting more resources to schools in socio-economically disadvantaged areas.  After all, schools and other educational establishments are impacted by what goes on in the neighbourhoods and wider labour markets where they are located (see Thompson, 2002).  It is clear that parents who are able to do so, tend to move to areas with good schools.  This has implications for social segregation, which in turn has implications for educational outcomes. More generally, and in the longer-term, local labour markets are increasingly impacted by developments at regional, national and supra-national levels.  While there are benefits in making links to local areas (in terms of education for environmental sustainable development and creating further education and higher education links with locally important sectors in order to provide and enhance relevant training opportunities and to foster innovation, etc), it is also clear that a broader general awareness of developments beyond the local area and equipping individuals with the skills to take advantage of opportunities elsewhere is also important.

References

Boschma, R.A. (2004) Competitiveness of regions from an evolutionary perspective. Regional Studies, 38, pp1001-14. Cairncross, F. (1997) The Death of Distance: how the communications revolution will change our lives. London, Orion Business. CLG (2008) Why place matters and implications for the role of central, regional and local government. Economics Paper, 2, London, CLG. CLG, DTI and HM Treasury (2006) Regional Economic Performance: Progress to Date. London, HM Treasury. Countryside Agency (2003) Rural Economies: stepping stones to healthier futures. Cheltenham and London, Countryside Agency. Dewson, S. (2005) Evaluation of the Working Neighbourhoods Pilot: Year One. Department for Work and Pensions Research Report 297. Duranton, G. and Puga, D. (2004) Micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies. In: Henderson, V. and Thisse, J-F. (eds.) Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, 4, pp2063-17. Erdem, E. and Glyn, A. (2001) Job deficits in UK regions. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63, SI, pp737-52. Felstead, A., Jewson, N. and Walters, S. (2005) Changing Places of Work. Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan. Fletcher, D.R., Gore, T., Reeve, K. and Robinson, D. with Bashir, N., Goudie ,R. and O’Toole, S. (2008) Social housing and worklessness: qualitative research findings. Department for Work and Pensions Research Report, 521. Florida, R. (2002) The economic geography of talent. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 92, pp743-55. Florida, R. (2008) Who’s Your City? New York, Basic Books. Forrest, R. and Kearns, A. (2001) Social cohesion, social capital and the neighbourhood. Urban Studies, 38, pp2125-43. Fothergill, S. (2005) A new regional policy for Britain. Regional Studies, 39, pp659-67. Fothergill, S. and Gudgin, G. (1982) Unequal growth: urban and regional employment change in the UK. London, Heinemann. Friedmann, T. (2005) The world is flat: a brief history of the globalized world in the twenty-first century. London, Allen Lane. Galster, G. and Killen, S. (1995) The geography of metropolitan opportunity: a reconnaissance and conceptual framework. Housing Policy Debate, 6, pp7-43. Gibbons, S. and Machin, S. (2003) Valuing English primary schools. Journal of Urban Economics, 53, pp197-214. Goos, M. and Manning, A. (2007) Lousy and lovely jobs: the rising polarization of work in Britain. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89, pp118-33. Gordon, I. (1999) Move on up the car: dealing with structural unemployment in London. Local Economy, 14, pp87-95. Green, A.E. (1997) A Question of Compromise? Case Study Evidence on the Location and Mobility Strategies of Dual Career Households. Regional Studies, 31, pp643-59. Green, A.E. (2009, in press) Regional development: Regional labour markets. In: Kitchin, R. and Thrift, N. (eds.) International Encyclopaedia of Human Geography, Elsevier. Green, A.E. and Owen, D.W. (2006) The Geography of Poor Skills and Access to Work. York, York Publishing Services. Green, A.E., Shuttleworth, I. and Lavery, S. (2005) Young people, job search and labour markets: the example of Belfast. Urban Studies, 42, pp301- 24. Green, A.E. and White, R.J. (2007) Attachment to Place: Social networks, mobility and prospects of young people. York, Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Hepworth, M., Binks, J. and Ziermann, B. (2005) Regional Employment and Skills in the Knowledge Economy, A Report for the Department of Trade and Industry. London, Local Futures Group. HM Treasury, DTI and ODPM (2006) Devolving decision making: 3 – Meeting the regional economic challenge: the importance of cities to regional growth. London, HM Treasury. Houston, D.S. (2005) Employability, skills mismatch and spatial mismatch in metropolitan labour markets. Urban Studies, 42, pp221-43. Jones, P. and Green, A.E. (2009, in press) The quantity and quality of jobs: changes in UK regions, 1997-2007. Environment and Planning A. Kain, J. (1968) Housing segregation, negro unemployment and metropolitan segregation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82, pp175-97. Lawless, P. and Smith, Y. (1998) Poverty, inequality and exclusion in the contemporary city. In: Lawless, P., Martin, R. and Hardy, S. (eds.) Unemployment and Social Exclusion: Landscapes of Labour Inequality. London, Regional Studies Association. Leech, D. and Compos, E. (2003) Is comprehensive education really free?: a case study of the effects of secondary school admissions on house prices in one local area. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 166, pp135-54. Lupton, R. (2003) ”Neighbourhood Effects’: Can we measure them and does it matter?’ CASE Paper 73, STICERD. London, London School of Economics. Lupton, R. (2006) How does place affect education? London, IPPR. MacKay, R.R. (1999) Work and nonwork: a more difficult labour market. Environment and Planning A, 31, pp1919-34 MacKay, R.R. and Davies, L. (2008) Unemployment, permanent sickness, and nonwork in the United Kingdom. Environment and Planning A, 40, pp464-81. Martin, R.L. (1988) The political economy of Britain’s north-south divide. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers NS, 13, pp389-418. McGregor, A. (1977) Intra-urban variations in unemployment: a case study. Urban Studies, 14, pp303-13. Morrison, P. (2005) Unemployment and urban labour markets. Urban Studies, 42, pp2261-88. Nunn, A. and Johnson, S. (2008) Labouring and learning towards competitiveness: the future of local labour markets after Harker, Leitch and Freud. Local Economy, 23, pp122-37. Oxford Economics (2008) Which parts of Great Britain are vulnerable to the credit crunch? Economic Outlook, 20 July, Oxford Economics. PACEC (2008) From recession to recovery: the local dimension. London, Local Government Association. Peck, J. (1996) Workplace: The Social Regulation of Labor Markets. New York, Guilford Press. Pooley, C., Turnbull, J. and Adams, M. (2006) The impact of new transport technologies on intraurban mobility: a view from the past. Environment and Planning A, 38, pp253-67. Quinn, D.J. Accessibility and job search: a study of unemployed school leavers. Regional Studies, 20, pp163-73. Priestley, J.B. (1934) English Journey (printed by Penguin Books, 1987). Ritchie, H., Casebourne, J. and Rick, J. (2005) Understanding workless people and communities: A literature review. Department for Work and Pensions Research Report, 255. Robertson, D., Smyth, J. and McIntosh, I. (2008) Neighbourhood Identity: People, time and place. York, Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Sanderson, I., Green, A. and White, R. (2005) Employment strategies in Newham and Hull NDCs. NDCs: National Evaluation Research Report, 62, Sheffield, Sheffield Hallam University. Simmie, J., Carpenter, J., Chadwick, A. and Martin, R. (2008) History Matters: Path dependence and innovation in British city-regions. London, NESTA. Social Exclusion Unit (2004) Jobs and Enterprise in Deprived Areas. London, Social Exclusion Unit, ODPM. Thompson, P. (2002) Schooling the Rust Belt Kids. Stoke on Trent, Trentham Books. This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

The author is grateful to the Department of Children Families and Schools and to Futurelab in Bristol for their support of the Beyond Current Horizons (BCH) programme of research of which this paper is a small part. The author is especially grateful to the 4 individuals who agreed to form the Working and Employment Challenge Steering Group: for this part of the BCH project:

• Professor Lorna Unwin, (Dept. of Lifelong and Comparative Education, Institute of Education);
• Professor Ewart Keep, (Deputy Director, SKOPE, School of Social Sciences, Cardiff);
• Penny Tamkin, (Programme Director, the Work Foundation);
• Professor Alan Brown, (IER Warwick and TLRP Associate Director).

They all gave generously of their time and energy, trying to help keep the project focused and on track.

The author is also grateful to each of the authors who were commissioned to produce the Review Papers, without which the current document could not have been completed.

Lynn Gambin helped produce some additional Quick Reviews, (to fill a few key gaps not covered by the main reviews).  Thanks are also due to her and to Luke Bosworth, Amanda Kerry and Jackie Wilson for helping to locate, collate and synthesise the enormous amount of material covered and convert it into the present draft. Helpful comments and suggestions were also made by a number of colleagues also working on the BCH programme, especially Keri Facer and Richard Sandford from Futurelab and Dave Cliff.

None of these bears any responsibility for any remaining errors. The final set of judgements made, and the views expressed, should be attributed solely to the author.

1.      Introduction

1.1      Background: Aims and key research questions

This report considers how the nature of work and employment is likely to change over the next few decades, in the context of developments in technology and other key drivers of change. It summarises the main trends in employment patterns and other aspects of work. The aim is to establish a long-term vision of the context for education in the second quarter of the 21^st century. Some tentative conclusions about the possible implications for education are then developed.

1.2      Structure of this report

The structure of the remainder of this report (which constitutes the “Synoptic Report” for the Working & Employment Challenge area) comprises two main parts.

Section 2:  Evidence and Insights

This section summarises the evidence gathered during the review process and the related events and insights in the Working and Employment Challenge area that was relevant to the BCH programme. In particular, it highlights:

1. The existing observable social and technological practices in the challenge area which can reasonably confidently be expected to continue to 2025;
2. The factors, for example events or changes in social values, which might play a significant role in shaping future developments in the challenge area;
3. The key uncertainties in the challenge area that may lead to radically divergent future developments, and what might act as the lever for such divergence.

Section 3:  Implications for Education

This section moves on to consider the potential future challenges or opportunities that these trends and factors might present for education. It also considers what evidence there is for policy actions to be taken. This includes what existing educational practices or evidence might provide insights into potential responses to these challenges or opportunities and why.

2.      Key issues and trends: A summary of the evidence and insights generated in the Working and Employment Challenge

2.1      Work and Employment at the start of the new millennium

Paid work in the formal economy is the major activity occupying most people’s waking hours. It is also the prime source of income, as well as representing one of the main ways that most people identify who they are. Rates of participation in the formal economy (the proportion that are economically active) are currently around 85% for males and 75% for females of working age (16-60/65). A significant proportion of the remaining time is taken up by work in the informal economy (housework, caring for family members, care of the home, etc). The “grey economy” also accounts for a significant amount of activity for some people. This includes activities ranging from conventional work (often outside the auspices of the tax authorities) to criminal activities.

Since the 19^th century people have got used to the idea of fixed places of work, leading to a clear distinction between formal work and informal work. This has often had a strong sexist dimension. For many years the male was seen as the breadwinner, while the female role focused more on the home. Two world wars and various other factors have changed both attitudes and behaviour, so that there is now a somewhat more even distribution between the sexes. Women now account for almost half of total employment, although many of the jobs they do are part-time and there remain strong patterns of occupational and sectoral segregation.

Technological change (for example, advances in equipment to aid domestic work) has facilitated new ways of organising the allocation of time to different activities including work and leisure/play. The demographic mix within the formal labour market has shifted dramatically in favour of women’s involvement. Many social norms have changed as a consequence. Expectations of the importance of work and how it fits into people’s lives have also changed.

More recently, information and communications technology (ICT) has had significant impacts on the possibilities for locating work (both locally and globally). ICT allows people to work in very different ways (“distributed work”) but there are often significant human and other barriers and constraints preventing some people from taking full advantage of the opportunities this opens up. Sen (1999) has developed what he terms a capabilities approach to highlight these problems. “Capabilities” as defined by Sen cover a much broader range of issues than the personal capabilities of the individuals concerned as usually described. It also includes various external factors that limit what is possible for those individuals in the circumstances in which they find themselves.

These developments have significant implications for employers, employees and education and training providers. The way that work is structured and organised requires careful consideration, if the opportunities opened up are to be fully exploited to everyone’s best advantage. These issues are discussed in more detail in the reviews by Round (2008) and Atwell and Costa (2008).

2.2      Key Drivers of change

There is a general consensus that there are three main drivers of change in the labour market and the world of work.  These are technological change, globalisation and demographics, (see, for example, Karoly and Panis (2004), Wilson et al. (2007), BCH (2007) and Gambin and Wilson (2008)). The first two drivers in particular are strongly linked, indeed in some respects globalisation can be seen as simply the way individuals, organisations and countries have responded to technological change, depending on the economic constraints they face, and their social and political values.

The key drivers of change as far as employment and work in both the formal (market) and informal economies are concerned, are therefore technological change and demography. Together with political, regulatory, legal infrastructure and social values, plus behaviour, these determine patterns and levels of employment, and the significance of work in the formal economy.

However, as the papers by Cliff et al. (2008), Baldry (2008), Bosworth (2008), Wilson and Gambin (2009) and Harper (2008) make clear, neither technological change nor demography are strictly speaking exogenous.  Everything depends upon everything else.  But for many purposes it makes sense to regard these as external factors impinging on work, employment and education, rather than being shaped by them.

2.2.1   Technological change

Recent technological change has been dominated by the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT), although other technologies may be becoming of equal or greater import over the next 20-30 years (see Cliff et al. (2008) and Dixon (2008)). ICT has been the key technological development over the past 30 years and looks set to dominate events over the next 30 years, albeit sometimes in combination with other technologies such as biotechnology or nanotechnology. ICT has resulted in huge changes in both processes and increasingly also in products and services. These are dramatically changing the worlds of work, employment and education.

Dixon’s paper reviews some of the key trends and possible future developments, including drawing out some implications for learning and education. Recent and near future developments in ICT include real time speech recognition and translation, artificial intelligence and robotics. These developments enable ICT to take over many aspects of work including automation of many functions in service as well as manufacturing operations. Shorter more customised production runs are also facilitated. This has resulted in an explosion of new products and services, as well as new ways of producing them. ICT requirements from employers are often far from clear; they are very heterogeneous. But ICT skills will remain a key area for focus in Education for the foreseeable future.

As noted above, mobile technology enables an increasing amount of work to be done at any time and place (a key aspect of so called “distributed work”). The development of improved communications, as well as transport and logistic services, has revolutionised the relationship between customer and supplier. In many markets key tasks and operations can now be subcontracted to the other side of the world. This brings with it problems in managing distributed work and flexible working patterns, (both locally and globally), which requires new forms of education and training for both managers and employees in general.

ICT has resulted in dramatic changes in both products and services and ways of doing things. This has had significant impact on employment patterns and levels in different locations as individuals, organisations and countries have adjusted and responded to the threats and opportunities that this has offered up. One important consequence is a requirement for a core of very highly qualified experts who understand the technology in depth, plus a more general cadre of high skilled workers to operate it. However, as noted below, not all jobs will be high level ones related to the information/knowledge economy.

Technological change is having a dramatic impact on the structure of employment as well as many other aspects of the way work is conducted. ICT in particular has revolutionised the way business is done, created new markets and offered the possibilities for people to exert much more control over their working lives. It seems certain the pace of change will continue if not accelerate. However, it is important to recognise that just because something is technically possible does not mean that it will inevitably happen. As Baldry (2008) emphasises, outcomes are shaped by social and economic considerations and constraints. Simple extrapolations based on technological determinism, and based on the false idea of a fixed “lump of work”, have resulted in many previous projections of the impact of technology on employment looking very silly, (for an explanation of the “lump of work fallacy” see Box 1). In the 1970s for example the doomsters predicted the collapse of employment and the paperless office would be the prime outcomes of the coming ICT revolution (see, for example, Jenkins and Sherman (1979)). Both were far wide of the mark. This does not mean to say that developments over the next decade or two will not have profound implications for employment and the world of work, but it does illustrate the dangers of simple extrapolation, taking no account of social and economic behaviour and the power of markets to adjust to new circumstances.

Much of the debate on the impact of technological change and globalisation in recent years has focused on its biased nature which has tended to favour skilled labour (so called skill biased technological change (SBTC)). Generally, technological innovations in production methods result in improved productivity. In the short-run, holding all else equal (e.g. output levels), rising productivity implies falling demand for labour. But with biased technical change the demand for some, types of labour may increase.

More generally, economic theory suggests that, in the long term, productivity (output per person hour worked) is primarily determined by technological change, where this is generally defined to include efficiency gains due to re-organisation of working methods and working conditions. In many models this is treated as exogenous (falling like manna from heaven). In so called endogenous growth models (see Bosworth (2008)) it is linked to investment in human and physical capital. At the macro-level, therefore, there is no long-run trade-off between employment and labour productivity growth.

In the long run, if labour markets are functioning efficiently, changes in employment can be expected to reflect changes in the overall size and composition of the labour force, and, in turn, broader demographic changes. The final outcome will also be influenced by the various factors that affect the functioning of the labour market, (such as labour market (and other) policies, and labour market (and other) institutions).

Box 1: The Lump of Work Fallacy

It is clear that dramatic further technological changes are in prospect (Cliff et al, 2008).  But just because something is technically possible does not mean it will inevitably take place. Impact depends on take up and implementation, which is moderated by economic forces costs and benefits) and other factors (such as changing social values), and shaped by existing values and infrastructures.  As noted above, initial estimates of impact of ICT on work and employment in the late 1970s were way off beam.  This reflected the “Lump of work fallacy” (see Box 1 for further general discussion).

In thinking about possible futures it is important to avoid technological determinism (Baldry, 2008).  There are plenty of useful things to be done, including care of people and care of the environment. The question is how to ensure that such jobs are created, and offer a living wage.

2.2.2   The growing importance of virtual worlds and virtual markets

Castronova (2006), Heeks (2008) and others have highlighted the potential of virtual worlds and the internet for generating value in the real world.

There are many positive aspects of such virtual worlds:

• There are many opportunities for translation to real world; sale of virtual world information/assets for real world dollars, so called “gold-farming”;
• Virtual worlds can be used as training environments and vehicles, building up practical experience in low cost and unique ways;
• There are benefits for team work and communication;
• Development of new ways of being (having fun and being happy).

At present these remain relatively minor in terms of income and employment in a UK context. While the “games” industry is worth many billions of US dollars, the scale of gold farming and related activities is much less significant (although quite important for some developing countries, including China (Heeks, 2008)).

More human centric work can be better fitted into new styles of working based on on-line communities (Zhao et al (2007). Online communities can be an important source of work:

• Open source software (OSS);
• Scientific communities facilitated by cyber infrastructure (CI);
• eBay type operations and markets (eBay traders together form one of the largest “sectors” of employment in the USA);
• Creating products and obtaining benefits by working collaboratively in cyberspace.

Most of these activities represent more competitive (individualised/atomised ) markets, rather than monopolistic markets dominated by the “firm” or large corporation. This opens up the possibility of individuals generating their own employment opportunities rather than relying on the State or major corporations to provide them with jobs and employment. This might involve operating in the informal as much as the formal economy. These possibilities are taken up in Section 2.7 below.

Of course there are also negative aspects of such technologies.  These include:

• Exploitation of people over the net;
• Malign intent, (malware, viruses, botnets, etc) ;
• Big brother (both by the State and large corporations);
• Pornography and related activities;
• Criminal activity, identity theft, etc.

Some of these also have a positive economic face. For example, virus protection and other security software is quite big business. The market capitalisation of Symantec and McAfee combined amounts to some $16-17bn, so there is big money in protection and prevention. Estimates of the negative economic impact (e.g. clean-up costs) of malware are c.$0.5bn for the bigger and more pernicious outbreaks. So there are real economic costs and opportunities in these areas.

The development of “expert systems” has led some to suggest that many professional jobs will disappear. While IT systems can be designed to substitute for humans, there are still real limits to how successful this is, as anyone caught up in automated telephone answering systems can testify. Similarly access to the internet for “expert” information is no substitute for an in-depth education and years of professional experience.  Contrary to the views of an immigration official that “skill shortages of Indian chefs was not a problem since anyone can read a recipe”, execution of many complex professional, technical and craft jobs requires real knowledge and understanding that cannot be obtained by simply tapping in to “Google” or checking out Wikipedia.

2.2.3   Globalisation

Although Globalisation can in may respects be seen as an outcome of technological change moderated by economic and other factors, it is worth considering it as a separate driver for some purposes. A key issue is the way in which the technological changes outlined above have resulted in the economic playing field upon which the UK competes with the rest of the world, including developing countries, being flattened.  As Friedman (2007) argues in his popular book “The World Is Flat“, this is having dramatic implications for the world of work across the globe. Reduced transport and communication costs open up the possibility of outsourcing to take advantage of significantly lower costs for labour and other factors of production. Improvements in global communications are affecting the distribution of work geographically across labour markets on a global scale. There is now much less certainty about where work will be done in the future and by whom. Increasingly there is a single global market for everything, including people. Capital, people and jobs are increasingly mobile and less constrained by national boundaries.

Some commentators such as Brown et al. (2008) argue that this undermines the comfortable view held by some that the UK and other developed economies can retain and indeed expand on the numbers of high level jobs associated with the so called knowledge economy. They paint a much more pessimistic view about the impact of globalisation on the UK and, in particular, stress the low likelihood of the UK being able to reach the promised land of the knowledge economy for all but a few of its workforce.

2.2.4   Demographics

Demographics is the other main driver of change affecting the labour market and economy. Harper (2008) sets out the key trends. Perhaps the most significant change in terms of work and employment is the gradual increase in the average age of the population. Casey (2008) examines the changing trajectory of working lives resulting from this, focusing on what will be the impact of an ageing workforce and longer working lives. His review explores the significant implications this will have for the world of work, employment and education.

It is clear from the reviews by both Harper (2008) and Casey (2008) that the UK, along with many other developed economies, faces a three-fold challenge:

• an ageing population and workforce as the ‘baby boom’ generation approaches retirement;
• increased life expectancy; and
• a falling birth rate.

In combination these open up a gap in the dependency ratio between the economically active and the retired population. The projected change in dependency ratios raises major concerns about the sustainability of the pensions system, and rising costs of health care, especially for the elderly. This is likely to result in the need for later retirement and life long learning.

Casey (2008) highlights a number of tensions. In some respects the long-term trend has been for working lives to contract, with later labour market entry associated with longer time spent in formal education and earlier retirement. However recent concerns about pension provisions have been exacerbated by the financial meltdown associated with the “credit-crunch”, and the talk now is about extending working lives to enable people to build up pension rights. Of course, as economic circumstances pick up, previous trends towards early retirement may resume.

Increases in the average length of lives are also leading to more people considering working longer to fill their lives with something meaningful, as well as topping up incomes and pensions.

Often this involves the need to change jobs (as noted above) the idea of a single job for life has become less and less realistic as an ambition for the vast majority of the workforce. Increasingly it is only the public sector that offers such possibilities.

For those in employment approaching their 60s, the idea of hanging on to their current jobs, thinking “this will see me out”, is often no longer an option. There is an increasing need to think about retraining and re-skilling to maintain employment status.

Even for those that have retired there is often a reassessment and subsequent search for post-retirement work and related activities (possibly in the formal economy but equally in the informal economy, such as voluntary work).

Subject to what might happen via migration, the average age of the workforce is due to rise significantly. Employers will have to adjust to an ageing work force and then learn to live with that older workforce.

Life long learning will also need to focus increasingly on an ageing population and one with different needs.

At the opposite end of the age spectrum, many younger people are happy to operate as portfolio workers, flitting in and out of engagement with the formal economy as it suits them. But as they mature and acquire responsibilities they may need to find and secure a “proper job”, with more security and stability. This may become increasingly difficult in the immediate future as the impact of the recession bites, and previous modes of working become less easy to replicate.

Recent events in financial markets have exacerbated pressures on most pension schemes (both private and public). Many people will have a long and relatively comfortable retirement, but many others may face poverty, loneliness and a growing need for care. This will put pressure on the State and the extended family, forcing many to stay in jobs longer to improve their pensions and to pay for care for both themselves and their parents. However, as argued by Giullari and Lewis (2005), the “commodification” of care does not necessarily meet the emotional needs of the cared for nor the carer.

In addition there are a number of demographic issues relating to migration. Political changes (especially enlargement of the EU), as well as other factors, have made movement across national boundaries much easier. This has resulted in big increases in cross border flows of people. Although they are not so significant in numerical terms as the implications arising from the other demographic factors outlined above.  The UK government has argued that such flows have helped to meet labour shortages, and inward migrants often contribute a dynamic boost to their new countries.  However, the much greater flows of inward migration that the UK has experienced in recent years also pose many problems for the labour market, for education and for policy makers in general.

All these demographic developments pose particular problems for employers. They will need to change their recruitment and retention policies to attract and retain the staff they will need. This may reinforce trends towards more flexible working practices, including less abrupt retirement transitions, and require targeting of groups such as older workers. Another important aspect which can be included under this heading relates to the increasing role of women in the formal economy.

Work, employment and education are shaped by many institutional and political factors which have a demographic dimension.  There are two specific policy changes that are important in thinking about future developments.  These reflect decisions already made; first, to (effectively) raise the minimum school leaving age to 18; and second to raise the official retirement age of women to match that for men. These will be matters of historical fact in the future scenarios to be considered as part of the BCH programme, although as noted elsewhere they may bring with them many problems of adjustment in the short-term.

Another aspect of demography to bear in mind is the difference in birth rates between different groups in the population. Dex (2008) notes that the proportion of children from disadvantaged backgrounds coming through schools is likely to be increasing, since the poor are having more children and the rich are having fewer. For similar reasons the proportion of children from teenage pregnancies may also be expected to increase unless recent trends are halted or reversed. This will all have implications for educational priorities.

2.3      Changing patterns of work and underlying trends in sectors and occupations

The sectoral and occupational structure of employment has changed slowly but steadily over the past century and more. Two centuries ago the economy in the UK (and in Europe more generally) was predominantly agricultural. The industrial revolution resulted in the dramatic advance of manufacturing and industry as a key source of employment. Despite this, just 50 years ago, soon after the establishment of the European Community, much of Europe was still pre-industrial, and heavily dependent on agriculture. This is changing very rapidly and only a few members of the expanded EU now have significant proportions of their workforces employed in agriculture. In the UK it now accounts for less than 2% of all jobs.

Trends towards the so called “knowledge” and service economies have gathered pace over the last 10 years (see the analysis by the Work Foundation (2006), based on Eurostat estimates). The so called information revolution has resulted in the transformation of employment patterns, with much greater emphasis on service based employment, focused on knowledge and information acquisition, processing exploitation and dissemination. This includes a very diverse mix of jobs, ranging from high level professional and managerial occupations to those working in call centres and doing routine clerical support jobs.  According to the Work Foundation, amongst the EU15, employment in knowledge based sectors rose by almost a quarter over that 50 year period compared with an average increase of just 6% for the economy as a whole.  In the UK the overall share of knowledge based employment had risen to around 50%, one of the highest amongst the EU15. These trends are confirmed by more recent analyses, such as in official publications like Employment in Europe 2008, and in more academic studies such as Wilson et al. (2008).

Gambin and Wilson (2008) provide a general review of both conventional and non- conventional views of the prospects for work and employment, including research on possible future trends The conventional approach, based on examination of well established trends and patterns of behaviour, emphasises continuity and the need for education to prepare people for a world in which skills at all levels will be needed to succeed in the labour market. Less conventional approaches highlight the possibilities for both utopian and dystopian visions, which could have rather different implications for education.

Pink (2005) argues that a third revolution is now imminent. The first (industrial) revolution swapped fields for factories, while the second (information) revolution replaced brawn with brains. Pink suggests that the third revolution will involve a shift from “left” to “right-brain” economic production. The “left brain” is mainly associated with logical thinking. This is an area that computers are well suited to deal with. Developments in ICT such as speech recognition, GPS systems, the internet, etc, are making it possible to accumulate, analyse and apply information automatically, so that systems can replace people in many areas of service work, as well as in manufacturing. Systems can be designed to deal with routine enquiries, make bookings, and providing standardised professional advice. Expert systems are also becoming increasingly feasible, with the very best knowledge and practical experience about how to do most things available on-line. In contrast, “right brain” activity is associated with more creative thinking that cannot be so easily replicated by computers.

Gambin and Wilson focus primarily on paid employment in the formal market economy. Dex (2008) considers the future of both paid and unpaid work. Her paper covers some common ground with that of Round (2008) but focussing more specifically on the place of work within the family. They both consider some of the key trends in paid work, home-working and unpaid work They outline some of the links between these trends and social benefits, as well as general attitudes to work. Dex (2008) also highlights the loss of deference in society and the implications of this for schools, as well as a number of more general educational implications.

The trends in informal work are not clear cut. On the one hand the importance of the formal economy is in many ways growing, with women in particular taking an increasingly important role in the formal economy, with rising labour market participation rates amongst those of prime age (25-55). The employment rates for both males and females have also risen steadily in recent years encouraged by the State on the grounds that this is the best way to ensure social inclusion. On the other hand informal activity remains very significant for most people, and in many respects technological change is helping to encourage such activity, while some changes in social values (rejection of materialism, concerns about the environment, etc) are encouraging people to reject market/ capitalist solutions).

Gambin and Wilson’s review focuses on key trends at both a UK and pan-European level. They draw upon the recently published Working Futures results for the UK, as well as CEDEFOP projections which present an initial attempt to examine Europe’s labour market as a whole. Although both sets of projections were carried out before the current financial crisis broke, the emphasis is on longer term trends to 2020.  They suggest that although the growth of the so called “knowledge economy” will continue, it is the services sector more generally that will provide the main source of new jobs, both nationally and across Europe as a whole.

Gambin and Wilson’s (2008) review sets out in some detail the various drivers of change. It is argued that the changes in employment patterns expected largely reflect a continuation of previous long-term trends, driven by technological change and demography, moderated by economic factors. In combination these have resulted in shifts in patterns of consumer demand as incomes have risen.

As in the UK, the analysis confirms that Europe as a whole has been experiencing a sustained shift in employment away from the primary sector (especially agriculture) and traditional manufacturing industries towards services and the knowledge-intensive economy.  This general trend is predicted to continue, albeit with some exceptions as a few Eastern and southern European countries benefit from inward investment in some manufacturing (as a result of their lower labour costs).

Despite these changes, employment in many new EU Member States still relies to a great extent on agriculture and manufacturing, but this is changing rapidly. By 2020, the primary sector (agriculture and mining) is anticipated to decline from almost 8% of total employment in 1996 to less than 4% in 2020.  Manufacturing employment also is projected to fall from 20% to below 15% over the same period.  By that time ¾ all of jobs in the EU will be in services.

The Cedefop projections suggest that over 20 million additional jobs might be created between 2006 and 2020 in the EU-25+ (EU-25 plus Norway and Switzerland). This projection was undertaken before the scale of the impact of the recent financial crisis associated with the “credit crunch”, and its effects on the stock market and the real economy became clear. The main driver of the long term increase in employment is demographic change and the expected growth of the population and labour force. These are unlikely to be radically affected by short-term events.  Assuming that an economic collapse of the scale last witnessed in the 1920s can be avoided, such longer term trends are likely to be reasserted.

The Cedefop projections suggest that the construction sector will only show modest growth with fewer than half a million new jobs being created between 2006 and 2020. Distribution, transport, hotels and catering together are projected to see employment grow by more than 4.5 million over the same period, while non-marketed services (which includes education and health)  are expected to increase by slightly more (4.9 million). Business and miscellaneous services are projected to see the brightest prospects, with more than 14 million additional jobs being created between 2006 and 2020. Although the employment prospects for areas such as banking and insurance are likely to have been dented by recent events, the potential for growth in jobs in areas such as other business services and childcare and social care (which form part of miscellaneous services) will remain strong.

Underlying these trends is an assumption of continued innovation, technological and organisational change, and development of the so called “knowledge economy”. UK and other European governments have argued that future employment prospects and economic performance will depend upon continued investment in human capital to maintain competitive advantage compared with the rapidly developing countries of the Far East and elsewhere. There is increasing recognition of the importance of R&D and innovation in maintaining economic growth and competitive performance. While this is mainly tied up with education at the highest levels, there are implications for education more generally, in particular, the role of those qualified in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects. While these are not the only kinds of skills required, a sound foundation of science and technology is regarded by many as fundamental to continued economic success. These issues are discussed in more detail in Section 2.9 below.

The projected sectoral changes set out in the Cedefop work suggest that there will be significant implications for the occupational (and other) skills needed in the future. Skills can be defined and measured in various ways (for detailed discussion see Wilson et al. (2007) or Leitch (2006)). The most common definitions and measures used relate skills to either the occupation that people have, or to the qualifications they hold. Changes in sectoral structure have a direct impact on the pattern of demand for occupations and qualifications. They are also linked to other aspects of skills (variously referred to as key, core or generic skills, such as literacy, communication skills, etc). These changes are being reinforced by changes in the patterns of employment (skills demands) within sectors. Technological changes are a key driver here, affecting the pattern of demand for skills, these are being reinforced by changes in how work is organised and how jobs are performed within sectors.

A key trend identified is the shift towards demand for highly skilled workers. In general there is a rising demand for higher level occupations, typically requiring higher level qualifications (i.e. at degree level) and various types of generic skills.

The review by Green (2008) focuses upon the changing demands for generic skills. Drawing upon results from detailed surveys of employers, both in the UK and in many other countries, he suggests that generic skills, such as communication skills, problem solving skills, team working and ICT skills, are increasingly valued in modern economies and labour markets. Systematic studies of trends in the UK reveal a number of significant trends in the demand for a range of such skills. This has clear implications for education if the UK is to equip young people with the types of skills they will need to succeed in the labour market of the mid 21st Century.

Almost 40% of those employed in Europe are now in higher-level jobs such as management, professional work, or technical jobs, that typically require a university degree as an entry requirement, and this share is expected to rise further. This reflects the continued growth of the so called knowledge economy.

However, at the same time, there is a clear trend towards a growing number of lower level service jobs in hotels and catering, distribution and other areas. Increases in employment are therefore also projected for many jobs requiring no or lower levels of skills such as elementary occupations. Although there will be fewer jobs for some groups such as agricultural workers and clerks, the continued growth of the service sector will result in many less skilled job openings in areas such as hotels and restaurants.

The changing patterns of employment by sector and occupation are therefore projected to lead to a job polarisation (i.e. job growth at both higher and lower-levels of the occupational spectrum, with the demand for many jobs in the medium-level occupational layer becoming thinner). Technological change (especially ICT) and related organisational changes have increased the productivity of many medium skilled workers, with machines often doing routine and predictable work (both manual and non-manual) that was previously done by such workers. New technologies are less successful in substituting for labour skills where the work involves some element of discretion and response to human interventions, even in work typically done by low skilled workers. There are many tasks that, despite major technological developments in ICT, cannot be undertaken by machines or computers. Consequently the demand for low skilled workers is likely to remain for some time to come.

However the picture is quite complex and other research such as the forthcoming “Jobs Project” report by the European Foundation for Living and Working Conditions suggests that while polarisation has occurred, it is not a uniform phenomenon across all counties in Europe. The polarisation of employment opportunities has a gender bias and significant implications for equality and social inclusion (see Wilson et al. (2008) and Wilson (2007) for more extensive discussion).

However, some authors such as Brown et al. (2008) fear that the changing features of modern capitalism described under the heading of globalisation above mean that future patterns may be less benign, with businesses and capital being much less tied to particular locations and less prepared to accept long term responsibilities to their workforces in a new “flat world”.  This could result in a much less rapid increase of demand for graduates than Leitch and others suggest.

The Leitch Review set up by Gordon Brown considered the UK’s optimal skill needs in some detail looking forward to 2020 and beyond (Leitch 2006 and 2006). Leitch along with other independent reviews (e.g. Wilson et al. (2007) has confirmed that the UK still has a serious problem with basic skills (especially literacy and numeracy). A significant proportion of the workforce still has no formal qualifications. Many lack the basic skills of literacy needed to function properly in a modern economy.  Most commentators suggest that the need for skills at all levels is likely to rise over the next 20 years. The analysis suggests increasing needs for both for higher level skill (with increasing job opportunities for high level occupations (needing degrees, etc) as well as for some lower level occupations (needing basic skills). The need for basic literacy and numeracy skills is also projected to rise (both in terms of the numbers and proportions of jobs where such skills will be regarded as essential as well as in terms of the breadth of such basic skills with literacy in particular being expanded to cover other dimensions than simply oral and written communication using conventional media (see discussion in Jewitt’s Challenge paper).

2.4      Location of Work and Learning

One of the major impacts of ICT has been its potential for changing the location of work. For many years pundits have predicted the end of conventional work patterns, emphasising the scope for remote working and telecommuting. In fact change has in many respects been less dramatic and rapid than they have suggested. Felstead (2008) provides a more considered assessment of the changes that have taken place in recent years and the prospects for the future.

Take-up has been much slower than many predicted, due to resistance from both employers and employees for a variety of reasons (including the need for social contact and fears of loss of control).  The majority of today’s workers still work in offices everyday, despite the fact that ICT allows many of them to work anywhere. Felstead argues that the potential for further increases in teleworking, homeworking, etc, is significant. Reinforced by pressures to operate in a greener fashion, such changes could accelerate in the next few decades, with significant implications for education and learning. Most existing offices are designed to minimize operating costs and preserve hierarchy and status, rather than inspire creativity and fuel collaboration among workers. The level of job satisfaction for most workers in this situation appears to be in decline. There are therefore good reasons to consider alternative approaches. Despite this, Felstead considers that the most likely path will be for much slower change than the advocates of such flexibility predict.

Atwell and Costa (2008) focus more specifically on the potential for integrating personal learning and working environments. Their review covers drivers of the development of present learning and working environments and probable, possible and preferable futures in this area. It considers whether the idea of the “industrial” model of schooling may be becoming dysfunctional, and suggests that long established trends towards the separation of learning and working environments may be reversed. This could have very significant implications for education.

Other more general aspects of the location of work across geographical areas are considered in Green (2008a). Her review focuses on various aspects of location and place. It highlights the way in which location can influence economic prosperity and labour market outcomes, in both positive and negative ways. It also considers how education can help to engender positive virtuous circles, as opposed to negative and vicious ones. There are also important tie-ins here with some aspects of the “green agenda”, including links between the economy, technology and the environment.

In the US and UK there has been a great deal of emphasis recently on creating “Green jobs”.  As EMSI (2008) demonstrate “Green jobs” are NOT occupationally specific. They are more related to sectors, especially on the outcome of particular activities aimed at driving households or other organisations to act in more environmentally stable ways (e.g. reducing energy use or pollution, or improving the environment in measurable ways). These might include various types of construction activity including refurbishment to achieve green objectives; investment in new transport systems, energy production transmission and use, waste management, scientific activities connected with these issues, etc.

Identifying sectors and public and private funding aimed at achieving these ends can help to identify changing skill needs associated with it. In a few cases these may be unique to green type activities (e.g. environmental specialists) but more generally will cover the full spectrum of occupations.

2.5      The meaning of work

Work has many different meanings. There is no single generally agreed definition, either in general parlance or amongst different academic disciplines. A number of the Review Papers commissioned for the Working and Employment Challenge touch on these issues.

Overell (2008) argues that this is a complex matter. For many people work is a key element in defining who they are. His paper focuses on the meaning of work, and identity, covering the quest for meaningfulness and purpose. It includes a discussion of topics such as “craftsmanship”, “professionalism” and the nature of occupational identity. The search for meaning is generally regarded as a positive thing. However, Sennet (1976 and 2008), amongst others, has argued that this is not always the case. The search for meaning can be counterproductive and the cause of unhappiness (see detailed discussion in Overell (2008)). There is also evidence that for some people work is becoming less meaningful and, if some more pessimistic expectations are borne out, this could become more not less common. Brown et al. (2008) argue that the future vision of a knowledge-based economy, with meaningful and well paid work for all, may be a

mirage. For many people such high expectations will be dashed.

The issue of identity is taken up in slightly different context by Bimrose (2008). She argues that the role of careers information, advice and guidance (IAG) is becoming an increasingly important element in helping people to understand themselves and their place in the world. In an increasingly complex economy and labour market, providing well informed information, advice and guidance in a holistic manner is a key element in ensuring a match between what individuals choose to study and the kinds of skills and qualifications that they will need as they leave formal education and enter the world of work and employment. This review emphasises that career guidance is very much at the centre of societal change and can be seen as an attempt to help all individuals attain their potential (not just those at the upper end of the spectrum). This can also help in promoting broader societal aims, including enhanced economic performance. She emphasises that current practice in the area of much careers guidance lacks cohesion and needs radical reform.

Other review papers conducted for the Working and Employment Challenge also touch on these matters. Hogarth and Bosworth (2008), as well as Powdthavee (2008), both begin their approach to the issue from a traditional economic perspective. Work (primarily employment in the formal economy) is seen as the main means of obtaining an income for most people, a necessary “evil” to ensure bread on the table, clothing on backs and a roof overhead.

Powdthavee’s (2008) main focus is on the drivers of “happiness”. In traditional economics approaches work is regarded as something to be avoided (or something to pay others to do), as opposed to leisure or play, which along with income is regarded as contributing positively to “utility”. Powdthavee suggests that recent research suggests that “happiness” is only loosely related to income. If anything it is relative income that is important, but it is clear there are many other factors that influence happiness or “Subjective Well Being” (as measured by asking respondents direct questions about their lives). Such results suggest that there may be a need for people to be better educated about what makes for happiness and well being. This line is reinforced in the latest report from the Children’s Society (2009).

Subjective Well-being is crucially dependent on employment/unemployment. The strongest results suggest that Subjective Well-being is negatively affected by unemployment (separate/ independent of any impact on income). The stigma attached to unemployment is still very strong for most people. The implication is that it is much better to keep people in jobs than give them unemployment benefit.

However, there is some evidence that this may not be the case for a growing minority. The evidence reported by Dex (2008), suggest that the impact may be modified (reduced) if many people in the same area/community are also unemployed. There is also some evidence that some young people have different attitudes from previous generations motivated by a strong work ethic.

The evidence presented by Powdthavee (2008) also suggests that Subjective Well-being may also be negatively affected by long hours of work (raising work-life balance issues), but the links are complex and the direction of cause and effect uncertain.

He also explores the link between Subjective Well-being and education. Again the results are somewhat mixed. Generally, it appears that education may exert a positive effect but it can also lead to unsatisfied expectations. The link between Subjective Well-being and leisure choices is also covered. This includes time spent watching TV, time off work in the formal market economy, voluntary activities, etc). Much of the evidence is mixed, with unclear directions of cause and effect.

Powdthavee (2008) suggests that more emphasis should be placed on understanding what determines happiness in general education, in particular, getting people to understand that higher income is not necessarily the route to happiness. There are however, dangers of a moral hazard and of producing a self-fulfilling prophesy here, with a strong risk of undermining incentives and motivation.

Round’s (2008) review highlights the possible value associated with voluntary work (related to both the care of the environment as well as other people), and suggests some possible links here to green, sustainability and related issues. But the reliance of the market economy on incentive systems, based on rates of pay and images of the “good life” followed by celebrities, suggest that developing alternative life styles and mechanisms for distributing incomes and work may not be so easy. Thus although there may be some tendencies towards less conventional values and attitudes towards work in the formal economy the latter is likely to remain at the centre of most people’s lives in the UK for the foreseeable future.

The management of the workforce also raises a number of tensions relating to issues of control, autonomy and discretion. As noted by Green (2008), there are indications that much work is becoming more closely controlled and that individual workers have less discretion and autonomy over their work. This is closely linked to measures of worker satisfaction and individual happiness.

2.6      Why work is important

The discussion in a number of the reviews (especially Overell (2008), Powdthavee (2008) and Dex (2008)) highlight that the positive aspects of work (income, self esteem) are a key element in well being. While well being is usually not very precisely defined it is generally agreed that it encompasses more than material living standards. Powdthavee’s (2008) review confirms that, while there is no simple answer to what determines well being and happiness, having meaningful work certainly helps, while being unemployed has very negative effects.

The possible future balance between paid and unpaid work is one of the many topics taken up by Dex (2008) who, along with Felstead (2008) and Atwell and Costa (2008), consider likely trends in the location of work (home-working , telecommuting , etc) as well as the location of learning activities. They suggest that, while some tendencies towards increased home-working and involvement in unpaid work will continue, the role of paid work (in the formal market economy) will remain central for most people. Dex’s (2008) review focuses particularly on the place of work within the family. It outlines the links between these trends and social benefits, as well as general attitudes for work. For a minority living off state benefits will remain significant, and general attitudes and motivation to work will be difficult to turn around. Some of these and other more general trends in paid employment are also picked up in the review by Gambin and Wilson (2008). These are discussed in more detail below.

The reviews by both Overell (2008) and Powdthavee (2008) suggest that productive work is one of the keys to well being. Traditional economic approaches emphasise that work (especially in the formal economy) provides income as well as socio-economic status. A job is one of the main means of ensuring social inclusion (see Wilson et al. (2007) for a more detailed discussion of the role of skills in raising individual incomes as well as the probability of finding and retaining employment).

As noted in Wilson (2008) life satisfaction is not the same thing as happiness, but evidence presented in the Atlas of European Values suggests that Europeans generally are quite happy compared with the rest of the world. Having a formal job makes a crucial difference to life satisfaction. Survey evidence reported by Liddle and Lerais (2007) suggests that most people appear to be satisfied with the jobs they have. Even when they are short of money, 84% of Europeans declare themselves very satisfied or fairly satisfied with their working conditions. Conversely concerns about unemployment are confirmed as a crucially important negative influence. Having people in paid work is also of crucial importance for the State (as well as individual citizens) because it increases national output and tax revenues.

As trends towards a knowledge economy gather pace, with increasing proportions of the workforce employed in higher level occupations, many jobs could (should?)  become more satisfying and less routine. Such jobs, employing better educated workers, are generally more vocationally orientated, as well as offering higher incomes, which (all else equal) should increase job satisfaction.  However the trends set out in Section 2.3 suggest that not all jobs will fall into this category. Over the period to 2020 and beyond, there will also be growth in the number of less intrinsically interesting jobs. Not all jobs can be made fulfilling and rewarding. Many will remain relatively undemanding, routine and repetitive, but not subject to substitution by machines.

2.7      Boundaries of work

Overell’s (2008) overview considers various other issues related to the meaning of work, including semantic and philosophical debates, as well as social scientific perspectives. His review poses the general rhetorical question of whether people “work to live” or “live to work”, as well as raising more general issues about the meaning of work and links to happiness and fulfilment. The distinction between work and leisure is in some situations much less clear cut. What some would regard as leisure or even play, others do for a living. Sports-people, artists, entertainers and others earn a living doing what many would regard as play.

But this blurring of boundaries is not solely restricted to professional and related groups. Many other people see their work as a vocation that defines their lives.  This covers wide parts of the occupational spectrum, including many professional and associate professional jobs (e.g. doctors, nurses, teachers, lawyers and scientists). Many of these types of jobs have seen substantial job growth in recent years as highlighted below. Pride in work is not restricted to such areas. For many craft workers there is a natural tendency to take pride in the application of hard earned skills and natural talent. Such aspects can be seen in many other jobs, although perhaps with less emphasis compared with the aspects of drudgery and mindless repetition that characterise many routine and elementary occupations.

If someone is in the right job for them from this perspective, work can cease to be regarded as something to be avoided and becomes play or at least an activity from which positive utility can be obtained. When an activity becomes something that has to be done (often, but not necessarily, associated with externally imposed deadlines and targets and loss of autonomy) there is a danger that it becomes a chore. The classic economic distinction between work and leisure then comes back into play. This can apply as much to the professional footballer and musician as to those in more conventional jobs. Self motivation and discretion, rather than external control and target setting, are probably the crucial distinction. Even without external constraints and demands people can stress themselves by self imposed targets that are not easily achievable. Success at the highest levels in such activities requires considerable effort, perseverance and dedication, all of which are normally regarded as attributes of work rather than play.

This evidence suggests that work and employment are closely tied up with identity and personal perceptions and esteem. Round’s (2008) review emphasises that while work in the formal (paid for market economy) may play a crucial role here, work in the informal economy may be for some people just as important.

Round (2008) focuses upon the boundaries between informal and formal work. The former includes a range of activities from housework, care of family members and DIY through to the so called “black economy” (more frequently now referred to as the “grey economy”), and criminal activity. Round (2008) challenges the “commodification” thesis that argues that market based work in the formal economy is driving out informal activity.  He highlights that even in developed countries informal work remains a key part of most people’s lives. His analysis draws on a range of research, documenting such activity, and highlights some of the possible implications for education and learning. These include the need to explicitly recognise the importance of such activity and especially the difficulties that those working informally can face in accessing education in a Life-long Learning context.

It is clear from the broad range of research evidence reviewed that the boundaries between work, play and leisure, and between formal paid work and informal work, have shifted significantly over the past half century. This is as a consequence of technological developments, as well as changing social values and economic circumstances. Further substantial change can be expected over the next 50 years.

It is also clear that both individuals and society more generally often have ambivalent attitudes to work and employment. On the one hand, as in the more traditional economics approach, work is seen as something to be avoided and minimised.  On the other hand, taking a broader sociological and psychological perspective, work is often regarded as a key element in how individuals are perceived, both by themselves and others, and crucial to feelings of self-worth and personal esteem.

The reviews referred to here, as well as other evidence covered below, suggest that paid work in the formal economy is likely to remain the normal means of generating income for the vast majority of households. However, it is also clear that most people also engage in various forms of informal and domestic work. In some cases this veers into the grey economy (tax avoidance) and, at its most extreme, criminal activity. On a more positive note, voluntary work is also an important part of many people’s lives.

Technological developments, especially those associated with ICT, seem likely to open up many new opportunities for informal activities often linked to virtual worlds rather than conventional realities.

2.8      Work-Life balance

There has been a long running debate on “Work-Life Balance” which is dealt with in Hogarth and Bosworth’s (2008) review. This begins with a discussion about the traditional economic analysis of the choice between work and leisure. It highlights the long term negative trends in the number of hours worked in the formal economy in a typical week, as well as more general patterns of work over the life cycle (increasing length of holiday entitlements and (until recently at least lower) the falling age of retirement)). It also touches briefly on other aspects of working patterns such as some increasing trends to use of unsocial hours/ shift-working. They emphasise general trends towards greater flexibility in working patterns (both from an employer and employee perspective). They consider how these choices have been shaped by technology, as well as economic and other considerations. The latter will include the effect of changing attitudes and values, as well as regulatory interventions by the State.

There are many other concerns about undesirable trends in Work-Life Balance. As noted by Hogarth and Bosworth (2008), there is evidence of increasing stress resulting from work intensity, despite long-term trend reductions in average annual hours worked in most countries, and improvements in accident rates, etc.  Many workers report that work has become more stressful and that their working hours are incompatible with family and social life. This seems likely to be exacerbated over the next few years, as the structural economic changes highlighted in Sections 2.3 are raising the demand for skills and forcing ever more rapid changes in work organisation, content and pace.

A related factor is job insecurity, with (as noted by Dex (2008) and others) general trends towards increases in various forms of less secure employment (such as self employment, part-time employment and short term contracts), many of which seem likely to continue to 2020 and beyond. For many, the idea of a single job for life has disappeared. There will be the need to re-educate and re-train to refresh and update skills and knowledge required to take part in the formal economy, as well as some aspects of the informal economy (see Round (2008) for more details on the latter).

Despite negative trends overall in the length of the official working week, there is still a strong culture in many organisations in the UK of long hours worked in the formal workplace (although perhaps not as extreme as in the USA). A study by the Families and Work Institute, (2005) in the US showed that one in three American workers feel overworked, with half claiming to be “overwhelmed”. Such behaviour is seen to be an indication of dedication. Attitudes in the rest of Europe seem to place a less positive view on such behaviour. Such practices can be argued to place too much emphasis on labour input as opposed to output, ignoring negative impacts on productivity. Attitudes on the continent appear to place less emphasis on “presenteeism” (being seen to be in the office or work environment for long hours).

For some time there has been public policy concern at a European level about extended hours and over-work. The working time regulations are a clear indicator of this. Overwork is argued to be a prime cause of both physical and mental illness. The pace and intensity of work is increasing in the modern workplace. Britain still has much longer working hours than many of its European neighbours. While pressure from the State (especially at European level) seems likely to continue to reduce weekly hours, economic considerations are likely to work in the opposite direction.

The simple division between work and life assumed in much of the discussion of a work-life “balance” is of course debatable. For many people life and work overlap and interact. Drawing a clear cut boundary between the two is not straightforward. As noted in the previous section many people gain meaning to their lives through their work (whether paid or not). However, this does not mean that there are no conflicting tensions between demands from the workplace and the home, either for the individual or the household.

Attitudes to work are also changing. While many may still define themselves by their work, others increasingly define themselves in other ways (for example by the hobbies or other activities they devote themselves to). Work for an increasing number of (especially) younger people is just a means to an end. A recent survey for Business Week in the USA is indicative.  The results suggest that whereas for the older generation (55+) 28% live to work, for those aged 25-34 this falls to 16%. The vast majority of the younger generation work to live and they do not appear to regard the vocational aspect of working as so important as older generations did.

2.9      Education and work

There are many links between work, employment and education. Much of the recent socio-economic discourse on this topic has emphasised the role of education (and training) in preparing people for work and providing them with the skills, knowledge and attitudes they need to succeed in the workplace (see Green (2008) and Bimrose (2008)). Education has always been seen as having a crucial role as preparation for work. This has various aspects, including social conditioning and instilling of attitudes, as well as imparting knowledge and work related technical skills.

There is a large body of evidence suggesting that education makes a huge difference to individual employment prospects (see the various Skills in England assessments conducted annually since 2002 which provide a comprehensive review of the research evidence (e.g. Wilson et al., 2007)). Better educated and qualified individuals are much more likely to find and retain jobs. They also tend to end up in better paid jobs. Individuals investing in the acquisition of qualifications tend to have higher incomes and increased productivity.

As noted in Wilson (2008), previous generations of schools in Europe and the US can also be seen as aimed at producing workers suitable for the factories, offices and other workplaces (instilling discipline, attitudes and basic skills). Educational systems in the second half of the 20^th Century were designed to deal with the relatively standardised requirements, a homogeneous population and the relatively well established social order of the post-war industrial society. These circumstances are however changing, which has some significant implications for education.

Of course, education has many other roles in addition to preparing individuals for work:

• Understanding of  the world and society;
• The ability to take part in civil society (citizenship, social capital);
• Broader cultural and social aspects;
• A consumption activity (learning for its own sake);
• Contribution to the “knowledge, innovation, research & development (R&D) triangle”.

The latter is especially significant for long term economic development. The links between education and work and employment are not just a one way process, with work and employment implying a demand for certain types of education.  Education, through its role in the “knowledge, innovation, R&D triangle” plays a crucial role in determining the path that scientific technological, economic and social developments take. Competitive pressures from globalisation are placing an increasing emphasis on these links. Ensuring the right skills are in place to be able to innovate and compete at the leading edge of scientific, technological and economic developments has become a top priority for governments across the world.

Education can therefore be seen as a key driver of change rather than simply a passive response to the needs of the labour market and the economy. Education’s role in innovation and technological change is reviewed in Bosworth (2008). He argues that, despite the assumptions adopted in some economic models, technology does not simply fall like manna from heaven. It is dependent on investment in human capital in the form of R&D and knowledge.  The R&D, knowledge, innovation triangle is a key element in the drive for improvements in productivity and economic competitiveness. Education, especially at the highest level, plays a key role in this process, with Universities being key players in much research, development and innovation. Bosworth’s review focuses on the nature of the relationships involved, and on the implications for work, employment and education.

Bosworth (2008) emphasises that this implies a demand for:

• Those qualified in STEM subjects (possibly quite small in number but playing a crucial role);
• Management and leadership;
• Entrepreneurship.

A particular concern highlighted in a number of official reports in both the UK and other countries relates to the crucial role of those qualified in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects. This is emphasised in a growing body of research evidence reviewed in Wilson and Gambin (2008). This emphasises the fact that much investment in new technology is dependent on a solid base of science, technology, engineering and mathematics personnel. Although not all technological developments rely on such skills, they do lie at the core of most technologies. A firm foundation in such disciplines is probably a key element to achieving prosperity. The implication for education of encouraging the study of such subjects in school through to University is therefore an important issue that needs to be addressed. Bosworth (2008) also emphasises that it may be important for the general population to have a sound grounding in such disciplines, if they are to be able to critically appraise scientific issues and to make informed judgements about products and services based on such knowledge.

Innovation therefore needs people with management, leadership and entrepreneurial skills plus STEM and related skills (Wilson and Gambin, (2008). But it is not just about a core elite.  For markets to grow, a well informed population is needed to act as customers for the new products and services produced.

Many of the reports reviewed in Wilson and Gambin (2008) suggest that there is evidence that not enough young people in the UK are choosing to undertake science and engineering studies. This may be a problem across Europe more generally (see Wilson, 2007). Many young people shy away from difficult technical subjects such as mathematics, physics and engineering. There are also concerns about vicious circles arising from a lack of good teachers in these areas, further discouraging young people to take up such choices. Careers guidance and advice also has an important role to play here.

The “knowledge triangle” requires a sound science, technology and engineering foundation if the UK (and the EU more generally) are to compete successfully in the global economy. This requires high level skills in this area. Countries such as China are currently investing much more heavily in these areas.

Of course it is not just about science and technology, other aspects such as innovation and design in the more creative and cultural industries and services will also be very important. The UK has many people working very successfully in these areas. There will also be a large range of jobs in the future associated with the care of the environment and care of people. But much of this is underpinned by a sound understanding of science, technology (especially ICT) and engineering.

Other Challenges within the BCH programme are also covering the issue of general “creativity”, but it is also important to retain a more technical or economic definition of “creativity”. The common conception of “The Creative Industries” seems to be about making films or music, creating art, fashion and design. The work of people like James Dyson, Alec Issigonis, Frank Whittle and Barnes Wallis. The significance of innovation in engineering, technology and science can be crucial and world changing. See for example Christiansen’s (2008) work the Innovator’s Dilemma/Solution, etc. Such innovation and creativity in industry more generally has an economic impact that dwarfs impact of fashion-design and the “creative” media. But combing science and art disciplines is not easy. All too often school timetables work against this, with physics and other pure sciences set against the arts and humanities.

The role of education in encouraging entrepreneurship and improving management and leadership is also a key feature of much recent research, (see Tamkin, 2008). Having the right resources and skills is of little value if they are not managed appropriately. Tamkin’s review emphasises the importance of leadership and good management, as well as entrepreneurship (see also Wilson and Gambin, 2008).  These factors become increasingly important for economies to compete successfully in global markets. This applies both at national and local levels, and in public and private sectors.

Based on this general body of evidence, governments from around the world have tended to place increasing emphasis on the importance of the economic benefits of education (based on the idea of investment in human capital). This has often been linked to ideas about the knowledge economy and it has been suggested that the UK needs to invest more heavily in skills to take advantage of these trends.

Some have questioned whether or not the evidence represents cause and effect. Ideas such as credentialism, and the so called screening hypothesis, suggest that education does not actually increase productivity, as implied by the human capital model, but simply helps to identify more able individuals. Others (Brown et al. 2008) suggest that future employment growth in the “knowledge economy” may be a mirage, and that the demand for the highly qualified could fall off, as competition from abroad undermines the advantageous position that older graduates have held, and as huge increases in the supply of well qualified people across the world swamp the market.

The idea that initial education can be provided at the start of people’s lives that will serve them until they retire has become increasingly outmoded. Unwin (2008), focuses on the ongoing need for learning in the workplace, especially the more vocational aspects. She emphasises not just the general need for life long learning but focuses on what workplace learning might look like; what kinds of leaning practices will be important; who will pay; who is responsible; and delivery mechanisms.

Brown (2008) takes this a step further, focusing on the idea of developing expertise and moving beyond a focus on workplace competence, assessment and qualifications. His paper focuses on trends in the specifications of “expertise” in different jobs and what people in them are expected to do. It highlights problems with a competence based approach, especially one focused around sectors, emphasising the complex nature of many jobs, which cut across discipline and sectoral boundaries. He also highlights the importance of collaborative working and supporting of others in the learning process, rather than an emphasis on individual achievement and acquisition of qualifications.

The workplace is also an important site for learning. Education does not just take place in classrooms and at the beginning of people’s lives. Unwin (2008b) considers these issues in some detail. The quality of much learning in the workplace is very variable and existing practice may ingrain inequality.  When done well, it can lead to self development, and the formal education sector may have some real lessons to learn. In many cases, however, employers often resort to external means to obtain skills rather than trying to grow them in-house. Recent upward trends in use of migrant workers in many sectors is a clear example of this (see MAC 2008) for more detailed discussion.

Some individuals see real relevance to learning at work and a chance to shine at work. But the trends are mixed; there are falling numbers doing apprenticeships of the traditional kind and concerns about the quality of many new modern apprenticeships. Problems in finding places for apprentices are only likely to be exacerbated by the current recession, as employers cut back on both employment and training.

It is also worth recalling that educational establishments are also themselves workplaces, but that there is often failure to follow best practice in approaches to learning and related matters (see the discussion in Unwin (2008b) for various examples).

Keep (2008) provides a broader overview of the links between the labour market, skills and education. This focuses upon a number of key trajectories (both historical and over the future) in the labour market generally, including: occupations, work organisation and management. As well as changing employment patterns it also considers pay, earnings and incentives, highlighting a growing polarisation between and within occupations. Keep argues that this has significant implications for the incentives for investment in education. His paper considers the different types of incentives to learn and invest in education, both financial and non financial. He suggests that for many people there is a lack of incentives for learning which needs to be addressed urgently. He concludes by drawing out the implications for economic and distributional outcomes, including who benefits and why, and how education might influence this. The paper highlights some of the problems of barriers to access such as class, (path dependence, implications for identities) and financial resources.

Of course, in principle, education can help to challenge and reduce such barriers. The present liberal, free market orthodoxy relies on market forces to determine rates of pay (although the UK does have minimum wage) imposed by regulation. In some other countries, (e.g. Scandinavia) social values impose a much narrower distribution of incomes and rewards, with a broader way of valuing the work people do than the size of the pay packet. This raises the question of whether further government intervention is necessary in the UK to change market signals (e.g. raising the minimum wage or trying to changing social attitudes towards inequality, as in the Scandinavian model). It also raises the question of whether or not the educational system can help to reinforce or replace weak market signals.

The UKCES is currently undertaking an in-depth review of investment in training and education by both individuals and employers, looking at the barriers and rewards to such investment. This is still to report but may throw some further light on some of these issues.

2.10    Other aspects of work that are also changing

Other sociological factors, governance, culture and environment are also key drivers of the changing face of work and employment. Associated with the broad changes in employment structures described above are many other social and related changes. Liddle and Lerais (2007) set out some of the underlying currents accompanying these structural changes. These include increased emphasis on individualisation, household restructuring (including increasing divorce rates and more people living on their own), and the changing role of women in the formal economy. Other aspects include some indications of movement away from consumerism and increased concerns to meet the new challenges related to the environment. As both Liddle and Lerais (2007) and Dex (2008) note, there are many complex links with the Welfare System and concerns of how to deal with problems of inequality and social exclusion.

The paid work ethic lies at the core of the present Government’s social and economic policies. Policies such as Welfare to Work and the New Deal, emphasising the importance of employment opportunities for all, have been central to its strategy to assist a whole range of disadvantaged groups, including the long-term jobless, lone mothers and the disabled.  All these groups have been encouraged to join the formal economy and take up paid work. Active participation in paid work is presented as a crucial test of social citizenship. A small minority of the population have resisted or avoided such engagement. This raises concerns about how to achieve a set of shared values as well as ensuring general consent to established rules and laws. A significant number of people are dependent on benefits, and given the current state of the economy this is likely to become of increasing significance in the short-term at least. This is also linked to issues of child poverty.

A number of the Review Papers suggest a significant increase in various forms of flexible working, (e.g. Dex, 2008). The term flexible working has been widely used and encompasses a vast range of different practices (for an extensive review see Bosworth and Wilson (2007)). This includes various aspects of time and location, patterns of working, as well as contractual status. A key issue is whether flexibility refers to the interests of the worker or the employer. Flexibility for one may mean uncertainty and precariousness for the other. Traditional discussions of flexible working cover aspects such as part-time working, self employment and sub-contracting all of which have shown some tendency to rise in recent years (see Gambin and Wilson (2008) or Bosworth and Wilson (2007) for more detailed discussion). More recently new technologies have facilitated the development of remote forms of working (including home working, although the latter has a much longer history, quite separate from the effects of ICT).

Many commentators and some researchers have emphasised that “jobs for life” are no longer the norm. But there is still a remarkable stability in most working lives in the UK according to more considered research. Taylor’s (2004a) review of the ESRC programme of research in this area confirms that these patterns are changing but only very gradually.  Undoubtedly many things are changing and 50 years from now things will look as different as today’s labour market does from that of 1959, which was dominated by industrial forms of working (focused on primary industries and manufacturing rather than services).  But many features will remain unchanged.

3.      Implications for the Beyond Current Horizons programme

3.1      The Children’s Plan

The DCSF launched the Children’s Plan in 2007 (DCSF, 2007). In considering which of the trends and issues identified in Section 2 are most likely to impact on education and related matters it is helpful to highlight some of the key points set out in the Plan. Its key aims and objectives are based around:

• Supporting parents and families in bringing up children;
• Enabling children to fulfil their potential and develop as far as their talents can take them;
• Enabling children and young people to enjoy their childhood as well as to grow up prepared for adult life.
• Ensuring children’s services are designed around the needs of children, young people and families rather than around professional boundaries;
• Prevention of failure and identification of potential problems in advance.

The Working and Employment Challenge is especially critical for the second of these, focusing on what employment and work in adult life might actually mean in 2025 and beyond. It also has a critical role to play in the last issue, helping to identify what might be the big employment risks in future, and highlighting how education (and training) can help to avoid failure and disappointed expectations, including avoidance/prevention of children ending up as “not in education, employment or training” (NEETs), and prevention of disengagement and exclusion from society as adults.

3.2      Stylised facts: Key Trends and Issues

3.2.1   Work

Much of people’s daily lives is taken up by work, be it paid or unpaid or in the formal, informal or grey economy. Work is crucial to the economy and society as a whole. Directly or indirectly it meets both basic needs for food, clothing and shelter, as well as luxury goods.  Directly it generates the goods and services produced or enables them to be purchased. Indirectly it satisfies many non-materialistic needs, some of which are often achieved as much by the act of undertaking it.

Many people attach value to work for reasons other than its immediate economic benefits, including the fact that it helps to establish identity and provides a sense of purpose, self worth and self esteem, as well as offering opportunities for social interaction and personal relationships.

Despite the traditional economic view of work as a “bad thing” (something to be avoided or minimised because it takes up time that could otherwise be spent in more enjoyable (leisurely) pursuits), many people (possibly the vast majority) enjoy work, particularly its social side. For some people, work provides them with an important social network and may provide a main avenue through which they meet friends and potential partners. This idea of work as a social venue/hub is likely to continue to be important.

Many people also view work as having intrinsic values, helping to define who they are. Most people appear to be satisfied with their work. Productive work is considered one of the keys to well being. For people who are intrinsically satisfied and fulfilled by the work they do, there may be a blurring of the line between work and play/leisure.

Some people take up work that defines them – such as religious figures, teachers, and health/medical professionals. Some people take up work in activities that are generally viewed as leisure activities – such as professional athletes, people working in creative sectors (musicians, painters, actors, etc).

Others may also find internal fulfilment in having a job that creates a finished product of which they are proud (e.g. craftsmen, artists, etc.). For people who are driven by intrinsic motivation, and for whom fulfilment is considered a priority, work that is satisfying is as important for their well-being as well as its economic productivity.

On the negative side, work may be an activity in which some people participate only to meet the general societal expectation that they should work. Such people may resent the fact that they have to do menial jobs to secure a relatively poor income. Others may resent the fact that they lose part of their incomes in the form of taxation to support others who are able to work but do not do so. There are complex relationships between work, income and status that have bearing on such attitudes.

3.2.2   Key drivers of change and implications for employment patterns

The two key drivers affecting work and employment will be technology and demographics, but these will be shaped by political, social and economic factors. Globalisation, it has been argued, is best regarded as an outcome of these inter-related factors.

Changing patterns of international trade will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the fortunes of many sectors and significant implications for the jobs and incomes of many people. This is not a zero-sum game however. Success for other countries does not necessarily imply negative consequences for UK employment. However, the UK like other developed economies will need to constantly strive to keep pace with developments in other countries (let alone move ahead in the game).

Technological developments mean that many products and services can be produced at ever decreasing cost by ever fewer people. This raises important issues about control of such technologies and how incomes and rewards are distributed.

There are many dramatic technological developments on the horizon which will have significant implications for employment and work, including how it is done and where it is undertaken. Those linked to ICT are likely to be especially significant. Although in some respects ICT may be reaching its natural limits, and is regarded by some to be “played out” in strictly technical/scientific terms, its implications for employment and work are far from finished. The potential for further dramatic changes in productivity are likely to be significant for the foreseeable future.

But the take up of these developments is not inevitable. Just because something is technically feasible does not mean it will happen. What does happen will depend on both the benefits and costs. These may be both economic and social, and include various constraints and obstacles to be overcome. It is important to avoid adopting a technological determinist view. What will happen will be tempered by social and economic factors and behaviours.

There is often an important element of path dependence when technologies are taken up, decisions and actions made early on may predispose economies and societies to particular paths.

It is also important to recognise the “lump of work fallacy”. There is not a fixed amount of “work” to be done that technology can take over, inevitably leaving people previous employed in doing such work “unemployed”. Society can reorganise itself to create new jobs that are valued and desirable.  Markets are powerful mechanisms that can help to ensure societies and economies can adjust to the shocks caused by technology and other factors. Previous mechanistic extrapolations of the impact of ICT have failed to recognise these factors, and as a result grossly overestimated the negative impact on employment, etc. In principle, there is no limit to the “work” that can be done in caring for each other, and caring for the environment. The problem is in designing institutions and systems that can provide the incentives and mechanisms to ensure that such work is valued.

3.2.3   Conventional trends and views

Formal paid work in the market economy is likely to remain crucial to the well being (income and employment) of the great majority of families and households in the UK for the foreseeable future. Formal work will continue to be both the key source of income and status, as well as a key element in identifying how people see themselves.

Informal work will however also remain important, and this can have rather different requirements for education and learning than those from formal work.

Patterns of work in the formal economy will continue to change, with many trends obvious.

• Specialisation, use of capital, implementation of new technologies, etc, will result in continuing structural changes by sector (growing importance of services and “weightless” activities associated with the knowledge economy.
• Demand for skills will continue to rise in many areas, but there may be some polarisation.
• There will be increases in demand for many higher skilled occupations and for formal qualifications, especially at higher levels. But not all jobs will require a PhD; polarisation means rising demand also for occupations such as sales, personal service occupations and unskilled low skilled work.
• There are also strong trends in patterns of employment status (towards increased part-time working, self employment, temporary work, etc).

But many trends will probably be less extreme than some commentators and the media expect, for example in areas such as homeworking and teleworking, etc, which have grown much less rapidly than predicted and which will probably continue to change only slowly. There is likely to be a growing need for generic skills, such as:

• literacy;
• numeracy;
• communication;
• team working;
• problem solving;
• IT skills;
• management and leadership.

Falling hours worked per life time (part of the fruits of technological change) will continue to be taken in the form of greater leisure (less time spent doing work in the formal economy). Key trends in this area include:

• a long term trend of falling average hours per week working in the formal economy;
• falling days per week (longer weekends);
• falling weeks per year (longer annual holidays);
• falling years per lifetime (earlier retirement).

Although there are some opposing trends, such as presenteeism (and the long hours culture), as well as staying on at work until a later stage in the life cycle because of extended lifetimes and concerns about pensions.

While projections are always hedged with caveats the most likely outcome over the medium to long term seems to be that globalisation will continue the patterns summarised in Section 2.7 (and described in much greater detail in Wilson et al. (2008 and 2009).

Subject to avoiding a major slump, the most likely developments in employment patterns present a reasonably optimistic picture for the UK.

• Technological change will result in structural changes by sector, and changing demands for occupations and different types of skills:
• These structural changes, will involve job losses as well as new jobs;
• There will be rising demands for many skills (as measured by occupations; qualifications (especially at higher levels); and key/core/generic skills of various kinds);
• But there is also likely to be polarisation, with growth in numbers of general and more mundane service jobs, as well as jobs for those working in the knowledge economy.

Technological change will also open up new opportunities for employment (as well as learning) in:

• Activities related to the environment and climate change;
• Virtual worlds.

Ways of distributing income will continue to evolve (including the use of both market and non market mechanisms).

The boundaries between work, (formal and informal), rest, recuperation, leisure, play, are probably becoming more blurred.

There is increasing recognition of the importance of R&D and innovation in maintaining economic growth and competitive performance. While this is mainly tied up with education at the highest levels, there are implications for education more generally. In particular, the role of those qualified in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects in the R&D, innovation, knowledge triangle is regarded by many as key. This has particular implications for education at school level, where there are serious concerns that the UK may be falling behind its main competitors. Of course science and technology are not the only disciplines that are important for innovation and economic success.

3.2.4   A critique of some less conventional perspectives

While there is general agreement on the main drivers of change, there is much less of a consensus about the direction and scale of changes that may take place and how this may affect the worlds of work and employment. There are of course many possibilities. These include much more pessimistic scenarios associated with global economic meltdown or other catastrophes (some of which are highlighted in BCH (2007)).

The greatest pessimists see a spectre of mass unemployment, growing insecurity and widening social divisions.  On the other hand, there are some who point to much more optimistic possibilities, with technology and changing attitudes having the potential for liberating many employees from dreary, dull, repetitive and degrading work.

Such alternative visions are rarely based on any systematic theory and usually lack any kind of historical perspective or sound empirical foundation. Undoubtedly very significant changes are possible which could have profound implications for many individuals and groups in society. But final outcomes will be moderated by inertia and stickiness in many institutions and behaviours. The final outcomes will almost certainly be less dramatic than either of these two more extreme views suggested here.

The most pessimistic pundits paint a vey gloomy picture, involving a complete breakdown of market based systems, breakdown of basic institutions, loss of trust/faith, anarchy, much greater central control, and dictatorship. Such apocalyptic visions of mass unemployment worldwide, while not completely beyond the realms of possibility are not very likely (although perhaps a little more so in the light of recent events in financial and related markets than would have been thought the case by most people a few months ago).

The populist argument is that capitalism has failed. Undoubtedly capitalism is at bay, and there have been immediate pressures for greater government intervention and regulation. However, as noted below, for all its flaws, the market based economy remains the only serious game in town, with the capability of allocating resources and distributing incomes on a world wide scale.

Some have seen the recent events in financial and other markets as heralding the end of capitalism, but to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of its death seem somewhat premature! The problem is in finding robust and generally accepted mechanisms for linking paid work to incomes. Although capitalism and free markets are currently getting a bad press, they probably remain the best (most efficient) way yet invented for allocating resources amongst competing needs. For it to work effectively, capitalism, and indeed any alternative voluntarist system, requires a set of legislative and socio-economic structures that the vast majority of the population are prepared to sign up to. The alternative, state control and intervention, has severe limitations and in extremis can lead to very undesirable political as well as economic outcomes (as illustrated by the performance of Stalinist states).

It is clear that the present economic situation remains very uncertain and many economists think that the recession will be much deeper and longer lasting than most governments would hope. The possibility of a long lasting slump cannot be ruled out. This would have significant implications for the labour market, the economy and public finances.

As Round (2008) notes, some have argued that there is a growing resistance to “commodification” of everything and ask if there is an alternative to the conventional market based system. They argue that governments and communities, by de-coupling production and consumption from the commodified realm, could in principle open up alternative development paths, with possibly significant implications for education. Round (2008) argues that work in the informal economy is of great (possible increasing) importance for many people.  For those that earn their main income in the formal economy, informal work can nevertheless be very significant, while for others the informal can be their only way of obtaining income and status. Work in the informal economy can take many forms, including increasingly opportunities opened up by ICT.

One example of this is the suggestion by thinkers such as Castronova (2005) that it is possible to develop such systems in “virtual worlds” rather than what most people regard as the “real world”. The use of virtual worlds for such purposes is only just being explored but there are already indications that there are significant possibilities for achieving real world outcomes (as measured in real dollars) from activities carried out in virtual worlds. While there are significant examples of such activity in some parts of the world, these remain very tiny compared with activities in the real economy and are likely to remain so for immediate future, although they do appear to offer considerable potential for some work and employment, especially in areas such as training and education in situations and circumstances that are difficult or expensive to replicate in the real world.

Another potentially important area of divergence from conventional economic trends and trajectories relates to the Green agenda. Growing awareness and acceptance of the role of mankind in climate change is causing many to question key assumptions underlying the capitalist model (consumerism, materialism) and advocating significant changes in values attitudes and behaviours. If these continue to gain ground this could have implications for both the economy and labour market, as well as education.

The more pessimistic views about employment are centred on three main concerns:

• Technological change will displace jobs;
• Global trade will undermine UK businesses;
• The patterns of jobs created will not match the skills available.

The first concern has been around since the Luddites. While it is undoubtedly the case that technology displaces some jobs, there is no inevitability that employment as a whole is reduced. Such a notion is based on the “lump of work” fallacy. There is not just a fixed lump of work to be done that automation can take over. In the long run, free markets will adjust to find useful things for people to do, whatever their skills. The initial predictions undertaken in the 1970s about the possible impact of the ICT revolution were for mass unemployment in the 1980s, (e.g. Jenkins and Sherman, 1979). This turned out to be misguided. More considered analysis, which recognised the importance of market adjustments, came to much less pessimistic conclusions, although recognising the negative aspects for those directly effected (Whitley and Wilson,1987).

Similar remarks apply to the issue of where economic activities are undertaken. There is not a fixed amount of output that is to be divided up between countries. World trade is not a zero-sum game. Improvements in standards of living for the Chinese do not necessarily imply a reduction for those in other countries. Not all jobs can be outsourced to India or China (or done by a machine). Many services which involve personal contact fall into this category. Health care and teaching/ mentoring involve a high level of emotional intelligence. Other jobs involve the application of creativity and imagination. While such jobs are not exclusive to the developed world there are factors which favour their location in particular places. As Florida (2005) emphasises, these preferred locations score highly on the three Ts – Technology, Talent, and Tolerance. Education has an important role to pay in developing such characteristics.

Some pessimists have also argued that those lacking the capabilities to acquire the skills needed in the knowledge economy will struggle to find employment because of the falling number of unskilled jobs in the UK. This ignores the fact that current evidence suggests the number of low skilled jobs is actually rising in some areas.

Others have argued strongly that the “knowledge economy” is a mirage in terms of generating many new jobs in the UK. Brown et al. (2008) suggest that, as a result, there could be a significant excess supply of UK graduates.  They suggest that the knowledge economy (with the vast majority of jobs falling into this category) is a mirage, and that therefore graduate targets set by the government are misguided.  The rest of the world is catching up fast and also wants the high-end jobs. In this type of scenario, they argue that the UK economy would struggle to achieve full employment and maintain sufficient levels of high quality jobs. To some extent this view contains some elements of the notion of a fixed lump of work, and assumes little scope for market adjustment. However, it does suggest that the optimistic picture set out in the Leitch targets and the Lisbon Agenda may be much harder to achieve than many politicians would like to suggest.  Recent events in the world economy are likely to exacerbate these difficulties.

3.3      Key dimensions of uncertainty

Technology: The uncertainties here are not so much about technology itself, but more about its possible impact on the labour market and economy, as well as education. Many technological trends are not particularly uncertain, but their impact on the economy, labour market and education may be.

The possible impacts are likely to be moderated by economic and social factors. The role and significance of virtual worlds may be one particular area of uncertainty.

The Economy: Many trends are quite robust and almost inevitable, but there are significant uncertainties about the overall success of the UK economy in the face of increasing globalisation and the current recession.

Possible key dimensions and uncertainties here relate to:

• how quickly the world and UK economies recover from the current economic crisis (is this a temporary blip, similar to previous recessions, or a more fundamental shift that results in a much longer term depression in economic and labour market prospects, more like the 1930s than the 1980s);
• how successfully the UK economy will compete with other countries the global economy (in particular, whether or not the aim of securing employment in high level jobs linked to the government’s vision of the knowledge economy is realistic).

Market versus Regulation: Linked to uncertainties about the economy are political uncertainties about the way society is managed and controlled. Some have suggested that the recent financial crisis and subsequent impact in the real economy signals the demise of the free market economy. Others argue that markets remain essential to both efficiency and economic prosperity (as well as political freedom).

The key dimension here is:

• the operation of free markets; versus
• a command economy (centrally administered by the nation state or possibly major multinational corporations).

Social/political values: The market versus regulation dimension also has a parallel with other more general socio-political values. These include:

• Individualism versus collectivism;
• Materialism versus humanism;
• Work to live versus Live to work;

3.4      Potential implications for education

3.4.1.  The Meaning of work

Liddle and Lerais (2007) note that, “there is an issue of ‘respect’ in our societies for those in poor quality jobs”. Given that education is increasingly regarded as the main route into a decent job, this message can come across as very threatening to those groups in society who have traditionally failed in the education system.

It has been argued that we need to find ways in society of valuing ordinary jobs more.  Some countries (e.g. Nordic countries) have managed to achieve this.

At present, as Brown (2008) argues, there is an unhelpful hierarchy of formal qualifications, with many people being excluded and unvalued.

This is also linked also to pay, and concerns about equality and social exclusion, but it is not obvious what alternative there is to the market mechanism. The Nordic countries offer some hope in this direction but they have also had severe problems in recent years, so there are no easy solutions.

Overell (2008) raises the question of how to encourage people to do things well and to take pride in their work at all levels. Licences to practice may be part of a solution. Better job design to try to instil meaning (at societal, state and organisational levels), is also important. This requires a greater awareness of the significant trends that technological change and globalisation are imposing on the labour market. It also involves the need to equip management (including policy makers at a macro level) with the knowledge and information they need to help structure society and design jobs for all people emerging from the educational system. Moves beyond the traditional idea of the educational system passively producing people with skills suitable for use in the economy and society. It will also involve preparing all individuals to make the most of the opportunities they face and talents they possess.

Most people agree that there is a need for more and better (more fulfilling) jobs. The EU New skills for New jobs articulates such a vision, but it is not clear that it is attainable (at least in its more naïve version, with Europeans cornering the market in high level, knowledge economy jobs). The polarisation of jobs in terms of skill requirements seems a more likely outcome.

This raises the question of what can be done to equip people best for this brave new world. To some degree societies can also make choices about the mix of jobs available by setting and raising standards. Some countries such as Finland (for example) have been able to raise the proportion of higher quality jobs and raise basic standards of literacy throughout their population.

It is clear that not all jobs will be knowledge based. Polarisation implies a need for many lower skilled workers as well as highly skilled and qualified “knowledge” workers. Education needs to prepare people for this reality, as well as developing high level STEM graduates. But focussing on the elite and the rest, risks real  problems of division, exclusion and alienation. There could also be major problems of mismatch and disappointed expectations.

Education terminating at 16, 18 or even 21 is unlikely to equip people for what they will need in the whole of their lives in the 2^nd quarter of the 21^st century (if it ever did). There will be need for frequent updates and new learning. Education needs to equip individuals in such a way that they are empowered to deal with whatever they may face. It is important to recognise the need to avoid the idea that it is possible to plan in precise detail. But this does not negate the need for detailed projections of what the world might look like. On the contrary these are an essential component of the labour market information needed to guide and inform individuals so that they can make informed choices and decisions. But the priority is for distributed decision making not mechanistic central plans. Having said that, society, the State and employers do have some scope to structure jobs in general terms to meet the expectations of learning empowered citizens, as indicated by the experience of the Nordic States. There are broad social and political choices to be made, as well as organisational and individual ones.

3.4.2.  Work and happiness

One way to happiness is to do more fulfilling things at work. Cognitive action also keeps people more active generally, which has other benefits.

There is a need to make the population more generally aware of these findings, and to educate children and others better about what determines well being. This includes factors such as:

• Emotional intelligence;
• Networks and family;
• Health;
• Moderation of expectations and aspirations regarding income, etc. (or at least more realistic and reliable information on the possibilities facing most people.

The aim should be to enable young people in particular to make well informed decisions.

We also need better thought out policies on adult education, reflecting the changing nature of work and employment (recognising the increasing rarity of “a job for life”) as well as the demographic and other trends that are increasing the need for a Life-long Learning perspective.

3.4.3.  Work and values

The balance between freedom (unfettered markets) and regulation (command economies / central control) may be changing as a consequence of recent events linked to the “credit crunch”. However, recognition of the importance of market mechanism means that we are unlikely to see a reversal of the general trends towards decentralised decision making. Technological developments generally also point in the same direction, with knowledge and information being more widely distributed. However, there are some countervailing tendencies, with concerns that some multi-national corporations (and maybe some Nation States) will maintain an undesirable level of central control.

Recent trends have resulted in a much greater focus on individualism, self and materialism / consumerism (Thatcherism). There has been an apparently inexorable move away from collectivist / social values. But this may contain within it the seeds of its own destruction. Unrealistic aspirations and expectations, generated by the media and others, may lead to a backlash.

There are some signs that these trends may be reversible. Growing concerns about the environment and world poverty are one indicator. The political dimension may also be showing signs of a demand for a change in values, with the election of Obama in the recent US presidential election.

There is a case for education to play a key role in this process, by helping to inform citizens about these issues, so they can make well informed judgements.

One aspect of the increasing focus on the individual and self that is particularly pertinent relates to possible tensions between women’s rights and priorities (including the right to follow a career in the formal economy) and children’s needs for parental care (Children’s Society (2009)).

Another aspect relates to citizenship, and ties in to more general social values; valuing what all others do (ensuring greater mutual respect). Much more could be done to change perceptions of the value of different types of work (especially in certain vocational areas and low level skills).

General social values are not fixed. As exemplified by Scandinavian countries, they can be changed in a direction that promotes greater equality in terms of both pay and status, emphasising the need to provide a living wage for important but low skill/low status jobs. There are often cultural aspects to this (e.g. the value in France, placed on high quality food, which has implications for status of occupations such as waiters and chefs). It is conceivable that the recent financial meltdown could help towards a reassessment of fundamental values.

3.4.4   Work-life balance

Education also has a role to play in the area of Work-life balance. Traditional individual work/leisure choices (where work is assumed to be bad, something to be avoided) are morphing into more general family choices and lifetime decisions.

Various trends are significant here. Reduced average weekly hours worked, parental rights, carers rights, etc, are all becoming increasingly regarded as important and appropriate.

There are a number of specific educational implications:

• The first relates to education as a sector of employment (in principle, work-life balance issues should be both recognised, and policies put in place to ensure  a reasonable balance – in practice, these seem to be more common in the breach than the observance in the educational sector!);
• Education might be expected to help individuals to understand and achieve a good work-life balance, including facilitating occupational and social mobility;
• Lastly, a good work-life balance opens up the possibilities for additional demands on the educational system, as individuals take up possibilities for undertaking additional education, either as an investment or a consumption activity.

3.4.5   The demand for skills and formal qualifications

The general consensus is that there will be a growing need for more highly educated people to meet the needs of the knowledge economy.  But, Brown et al. (2008) warn that it is unlikely that this will be the case for all jobs and suggest that there is also likely to be significant growth in jobs that require no or low formal qualifications.  There is a real danger that the targets set by politicians for those acquiring higher level qualifications will lead to excess supply and dashed expectations. China, India, etc are catching up at top end of the job spectrum, and are also looking to expand high level, knowledge intensive employment, competing directly with the UK for such work.

However, there is no limit to human ingenuity and the possibilities for developing new products and services that require such inputs. There is no fixed lump of such work to be done. Nevertheless there is a need to reconsider the proposed expansion of graduate qualifications when the economy may not keep pace with the need for such qualifications, with the risks of discontent this will create in the workforce, as well as potential moves further away from gender equality. Brown et al. (2008) argue that there has been a failure of policy makers (both in the UK and in Europe more generally) to recognise reality. Aspirations to become a high value added, purely knowledge based economy may be unrealistic and unachievable.

It is also important not to see education as having a purely passive and reactive role.  While much of the discussion is about people getting the right skills for jobs that are likely to emerge, there will also be opportunities for people to develop their own jobs their own work. Encouraging people to take a more proactive role, and encouraging entrepreneurialism can help to fill any gaps that might emerge in terms of job opportunities generated by the existing population of employers. In many respects the climate for people wanting to start businesses is likely to be made easier by technological developments.

All of these possibilities could have very important implications for the curriculum.  At present State schools run a common curriculum up to 14, yet the scenario sketched out by Brown et al. (2008) and others suggests  very different demands for skills (with polarisation, across both occupations and geographical space).

Keep (2008) also stresses the importance of incentives. A polarised earnings distribution makes for weak incentives for participation in education for all but a lucky few. This poses some significant challenges for educational policy. Simple changes to the curriculum are unlikely to resolve this. Major changes in priority may be needed which recognise the need to cope with very heterogeneous demands for skills. These may well be strongly polarised, with very different impacts at upper and lower ends of the educational spectrum.

On the one hand, there will be increasing demands for highly creative, technically skilled, knowledge workers. On the other hand, there will also be many jobs requiring limited skills and low expectations and ambitions. For many individuals who are less successful than average in terms of educational achievement, these are the only jobs they may be able to find. The old 11+, which marked 80% of the population as failures at aged 11, has now been replaced by a more general divisions at 14+ and 16+ between those able to go on to become graduates, and the rest. And even for many of those that do achieve graduate status, the kinds of job opportunities on offer may fail to match their high expectations.

In this case supporting such people to develop own businesses (and therefore their own jobs) may become of increasing importance. This would place increased significance on measures to support and encourage entrepreneurial activity both within education and more generally. The experience of previous recessions suggest that many graduates unable to find jobs in traditional areas of graduate employment take on new identities and develop new niches (Purcell et al. (2005)).

3.4.6   Demands for specific skills

The trends broadly summarised in Section 3.4.5 are identified in much greater detail elsewhere in this document and in the large body of research aimed at anticipating changing skill demands. While there are some concerns about the quality of such information (as a result of inadequate investment in pertinent data and methods (both at a UK and a broader European level)), a number of key trends have been identified. The Leitch (2005 and 2006) reports identify gaps in skill requirements for 2020 and beyond:

• at the level of basic skills (including literacy and numeracy);
• for intermediate skills (including the lack of a sound vocational base); and
• at higher level relating to management and leadership.

Basic skills

At the level of basic skills, too many young people are still not acquiring the most basic skills, including literacy and numeracy. Many fail to acquire the fundamental skills at primary school, and are turned off and disengaged almost from the start. This requires intervention at primary level to break the vicious circles of disadvantage and deprivation that underlie these patterns. In many respects this is no different from what is already happening with Sure Start/ Early Years qualifications/ Numeracy & Literacy strategies. What is distinctive about the projections is that these needs are likely to intensify, both in terms of the numbers and proportions of jobs that will require at least these minimum requirements, as well as the scope of those basic skills (which are likely to include a broader definition of literacy than simple oral a written communication skills).

Intermediate skills (especially vocational skills)

Not for the first time in reviews about the UK’s skill needs, Leitch has identified a gap at intermediate level in the skills profile of the UK. Intermediate skills refer here to a broad group of skills below graduate level but about basic levels, especially various vocationally orientated skills (both technical knowledge and practical experience). Tomlinson (2004) highlighted the need for greater emphasis on vocational courses at this level, arguing for parity of esteem with more academic courses. The Government’s response was to introduce a range of initiatives, including Train to Gain, Modern Apprenticeships and the new Diplomas. However, as noted in the following sub-section, for a variety of reasons, these initiatives seem unlikely to provide the long-term solution.

Management and leadership

Management and leadership are crucial to economic performance. Many UK managers remain poorly qualified.  Although it is not clear that formal qualifications such as MBAs, etc, necessarily improve matters, it is clear that the economy will demand more of this particular cadre of workers in the future.  There is a need to encourage more talented people into management and leadership courses.  The importance of using methods of education that emphasise teamwork is also stressed.  There is also a need to explore failure and the lessons to be learned from it, as well as successes. However, there are also some key questions to be addressed about whether or note effective leadership can taught.

STEM qualifications

There are some particular concerns about adequate supplies of STEM graduates. This involves getting policy in schools as well as higher education right. It is as much about getting the right quality of students undertaking such courses as simply boosting or maintaining numbers.  According to (XXX) not enough of the most able students are choosing to undertake STEM subjects.  There is a need to prevent young people closing out the options of undertaking STEM subjects too early. There are also concerns about perception of what work in these areas might look like. The definition of the term engineer in many young people’s minds is often muddled and few have clear picture of what work of a professional scientist or engineer is like. There is a need for better informed and impartial careers guidance.

Other issues relating to the demand for skills

Green (2008) also highlights the need for greater emphasis on communication skills (including interaction with others) as well as formal qualifications. This suggests the need to incorporate learning on emotional literacy, interpersonal skills, and negotiating skills into learning curricula, especially at further and higher education levels. IT skills are also likely to remain in high demand, so the educational system will need to continue to supply learning on IT skills and internet use.

The Leitch reports emphasised the need to focus on the demand for skills. This begs the question of demand from whom? The term is often ill defined and can be used to refer to the demand for places on courses of education and training by individuals as well as the demand for skills by employers to undertake their day to day operations. The UKCES (as reported in HCIUSSC (2009)) has emphasised that it is the needs of employers that is the key issue (rather than demand from individuals, which is in many respects more of an indicator of the eventual supply of skills (as they acquire qualifications and accreditation)). But others have questioned whether employers always know what they need. Hogarth et al. (2009) suggest that some employers may fail to recognise that they need to upgrade the skills of their workforce in order to meet competitive challenges. The quality of jobs and learning is often not given a high profile by many (unqualified) managers, who like people to be in the same mould as themselves.

There are number of other key issues that could also be raised here. Not just about whether employers know what they want, but also the question of who should be responsible for delivery of sector specific skills. However, this goes beyond the remit of this particular paper. For further discussion see the ingoing review by UKCES (2009).

Finally, there are also some significant issues related to the demand for skills linked to the Educational workforce, including concerns about recruitment and retention of requisite numbers, and quality of teachers and lecturers at all levels of the system. In some cases there are problems of vicious circles (for example, poor or inadequate teaching in science and technology or maths) discouraging students from taking up these subjects, leading to shortages of well qualified people in these disciplines and difficulties for the public sector to recruit and retain high quality staff in these areas.

3.4.7   A misplaced focus on formal (academic) qualifications?

The debate at both national and European levels about changing skill needs over the next few decades tends to focus upon formal qualifications, especially in a UK context on academic qualifications. This is understandable as these are relatively easy to measure and monitor. But these raise some important questions about whether this is the correct focus. Not all education and training is formal. Much learning takes place informally and has significant value. This raises questions about whether or not the focus on academic qualifications is desirable and whether a more diverse set of skills/competencies should be encouraged? It also leads to questions about whether less traditional teaching and learning approaches, less focused upon the acquisition formal credentials might promote greater engagement amongst some individuals who find traditional, formal education and schooling more difficult.

Until relatively recently, early school leavers could find employment, even if they had few or no formal qualifications. It is clear that those who leave early without good qualifications are increasingly finding themselves marginalised. These problems are more serious for boys as they are more likely to leave school early and without formal qualifications. Although the current generation of school leavers is much better qualified than its predecessors, a significant proportion have still not reached upper secondary (NQF level 3) standard.

Current plans will effectively lead to the raising of school leaving age to 18 in the UK. This is likely to lead to growing problems of dealing with those less academically inclined children who are already disengaged. There is an urgent need to re-engage those for whom a traditional academic approach has little relevance. Traditional class-room based instruction simply does not work for many such children.

In the UK there has also been a general move away from emphasis on vocational education and training (exemplified by the government’s rejection of many of the recommendations of the Tomlinson (2004) report). The new diplomas currently being introduced still place a huge emphasis on theoretical rather than practical work, despite claims to the contrary. There is still a real problem in getting most employers to engage with this agenda, and finding work placements remains a key stumbling block. There are also still real issues of lack of parity of esteem for the vocational route. For many it is still perceived as a two tier system, with FE still being widely regarded as inferior to schools (sending  the wrong messages about the value of vocational courses compared to more academic ones, see (Coffield, 2002).

There is a need for much greater employer engagement. In many cases employers are being discouraged from getting involved by increasing levels of red-tape and  demands for certification. Many skilled people are not allowed to train or pass on their experience and knowledge because they do not have the formal qualifications/ credentials demanded in the FE sector. There are also difficult questions about how to provide practical work experience and knowledge for young people. More and better incentives are needed to encourage employers to release people. Current ways of connecting education and work are often not working well.

There is an increasing awareness of special needs of many youngsters (with growing numbers with dyslexia, ADHD, speech and language problems). Such children need special support. Many will never achieve NQF level 3. Increasing mental health issues amongst the young also have significant implications for happiness, stress and eventually for burdens on the NHS.

Brown (2008) questions whether initiatives such as the Lisbon Agenda, and the current government’s emphasis on achieving a 50% HE participation rate, are moving things in the right direction. He concludes that a radical rethink is needed and that schools and other providers of education should seriously consider whether the focus on acquiring formal qualifications is misplaced. He suggests that more emphasis needs to be placed on progression measured in other ways, and on encouraging collaborative working and support for the learning of others, which some might view as “cheating” and working “off task”. Of course this type of initiative raises problems about how to measure success (and failure), and in particular the difficulties of avoiding the free ride problem in measuring contributions to team work. Brown suggests that social expectations around what constitutes success and what constitutes a contribution to an activity are likely to change, facilitated by a range of technologies that can support new forms of assessment and data capture. This will change the context in which educators are operating.

Too much focus on formal qualifications for all can increase perceptions of lack of self worth for those that are non-academic. If they have not achieved a C+ in GCSE in English and maths at 16, they are branded as failures, leaving them wondering what is the point of education? There is a case to be made that school leaving should not be so tightly linked to age, nor to the achievement of particular types of qualification.

Employers also need to be encouraged to look at young people “in the round”, not just at their formal qualifications. Partnership with employers is needed, but many are not interested in opening up their workplaces for work experience, apprenticeships and work-place based learning generally (sometimes for good reasons, health and safety, economic factors, etc).

There will be a continuing need for innovation in the classroom and in educational establishments. The priority is to find ways of making education relevant to young people and the changing face of work and society. See, for example, the innovative practices of the Walker College (2008) and other schools such as Barrs Hill in Coventry. Universities have long recognised the value of learning by teaching. Young academics learn and consolidate their knowledge by taking classes. Older staff find that teaching helps them to extend and develop their research. But this is much less practised in other parts of the educational systems, yet it can work equally effectively at all levels. In Barrs Hill school in Coventry, for example schemes such as “language ambassadors” take the opportunities presented by a multicultural school population to allow children to take pride in their culture and language by teaching younger children in nearby primary schools about these things. This promotes self esteem and self confidence, as well as multicultural understanding and valuing others. Encouraging such youngsters to take GSCEs in Persian or Hindi also helps to encourage recognition of the value of such knowledge and skills, yet such schemes and practices remain exceptional rather than the rule.

Other examples of innovative practice include Motorvate which is aimed at those of a non-academic bent. It involves teaching young people about road safety, how cars work and are maintained, as well as giving them an opportunity to learn to drive. It is aimed at reducing accidents and joy-riding amongst young males, helping them to learn about the law, highway code and the impact of car crime. Such schemes can help to encourage pride in work, as well supporting the learning of others.

Assessment in the workplace is generally less focused on formal qualifications. Workplace based assessment reconnects teaching, learning and assessment. It helps to focus on Life-long Learning and active knowledge transformation for a practical purpose. The work of Brown (2008) and others suggest that the current focus on formal qualifications and credentials is misplaced and seriously question whether low level qualifications (especially post 16) add any real value for those that acquire them. Brown (2008) argues that the focus in the Lisbon agenda, etc, on moving people upwards through well defined skill levels (defined by formal qualifications attained) is misguided.  Progression in the labour market should be the main policy goal, but this is less easily measured and achieved by policy focused on the control manipulation of the supply side (numbers on courses and numbers acquiring formal qualifications).

Qualifications are frequently seen as an end, whereas they are often more of a means to an end. They provide an indicator of moves towards a more knowledge based society and knowledgeable population. Because they are relatively easily measured and monitored they tend to be the main focus of attention rather than what happens to the individuals in the process of acquiring them such as changes in individual competencies. There is a need to reconsider what 11 or 16 years of initial formal education is for, and to draw out the implications. For example, this might involve placing more emphasis on:

• Supporting the learning of others (collaborative working less focus on personal achievement);
• More open ended solutions, rather than  following a strict and narrow curriculum;
• A curriculum more focused on work skills;

There is often an implicit assumption that if we get education for young people right then all will be well.  But a sole focus on initial education is inappropriate. As emphasised by many authors, learning does not stop at 16 or even 21, and people need to be equipped to continue life time learning.

There are some important technological aspects to this. Knowledge and information are in many respects becoming more widely distributed, although there are also some countervailing pressures, with some aspects of this being concentrated in just a few organisations. The more general trend of increasing distribution of knowledge is making it much easier for individuals to tap into what they need, as and when they need it (just in time). This has significant implications for learning and knowledge acquisition.

Some people question whether the industrial (factory) model of schooling is becoming dysfunctional and out of date. There are some indications that personal learning and working environments may be converging. This may affect the traditional dichotomy between academic (brain) and vocational (manual) work and learning.

Learning is increasingly becoming integrated within the workplace. Learning does not suddenly stop after 11, or 16 years of initial education. But the implications of this for formal education could go in various directions, depending on how policy and schools, etc, react and adjust to these possibilities. For example, State schools may adjust to the new environment by proactively embracing new technologies and taking on new roles, or they could find themselves becomingly increasingly replaced by learning opportunities offered in the workplace, or privatised educational establishments, including virtual organisations.

3.4.8   Life-long Learning

Workplace learning, Vocational Education and Training (VET) and Life-long Learning  are likely to become more closely connected. VET is especially crucial for the middle group of jobs and people left out by the polarisation of skill structures identified in Section 2. Vocational education and training should not be seen as remedial.

The trends identified in Section 2, including the continuing rapid change in the structure of employment and jobs and the ever escalating and changing skills required in most jobs, means that there will be a general need to prepare the workforce for jobs that require continual learning, and to prepare the appropriate training courses to meet these learning needs.

There are other related educational implications:

• The need to recognise the greater number of significant work life transitions that most people will have to make;
• The need for up-skilling throughout lifetime;
• The need to focus on individual skill sets rather than occupational skill sets;
• The importance of mastery of a knowledge base;
• The importance of working in teams;
• The importance of supporting the learning of others;
• The need to allow for transfer between contexts;
• The potential for exploitation of virtual world, technologies, etc.

3.4.9   Location of work and learning

Work is increasingly being detached from fixed and traditional locations, but the process is slow and the pace has frequently been exaggerated. Collective office space is becoming increasingly commonplace (hot-desking, etc). Home-working may be expected to grow, but probably only modestly (see Felstead (2008)). Maybe around 20% of workers by 2025 will be working from home or hot-desking.

But this kind of working requires particular skills and discipline. There may be some significant educational and learning implications, in particular helping young people and adults to learn to cope and prosper in such a world.

Working at or from home relies heavily on time management skills, but also on being able to draw boundaries between work and non-work time to have work-life balance. People who need to do this kind of work may need to be psychologically profiled and trained to check they can cope with the isolation and boundary issues and recognise emerging health problems. This includes educating people to occupy space rather than possess it.

It is also worth emphasising that learning occurs as a result of participation: “bumping” into people results in informal learning opportunities. Working at home can lead to isolation and problems associated with this, although hot-desking can sometimes lead to more such interactions than is the case for those working full time in isolated offices.

3.4.10             The importance of place

Place is an important dimension in the links between work, employment and education. Education can play a key role in helping to break local vicious circles of deprivation and disengagement. Obviously this is not the sole or necessarily even the key factor. Infrastructure, including transport, plays a key role (Green (2008a)).

For many multi-national companies the centre of gravity is moving away from the UK to elsewhere. Such companies, especially if they are foreign owned may recognise no strong links to local economies and populations. Their commitment to the UK may be modest, although foreign ownership can have some benefits such companies often having greater emphasis on High Performance Work Practices (HPWPs), etc.

Educational providers can play a more active role in local economic development.  Examples of US and Australian experience suggest that this can be an important part of strategies to set up and nurture local skills as set out in Section 2 (see also Eberts, 2008, EMSI, 2006, and Green 2008a)).

Many citizens and employers do demonstrate a strong loyalty to “place” and take civic responsibility very seriously. Such attachment to place can have strong influences on local economic development issues, and needs to be tapped. There are lessons to be learned from other countries about the ways in which educational establishments such as FE colleges can better serve their local areas by getting actively involved in economic development issues, rather than seeing themselves as simple passive suppliers of education and training. In the East Coast of the US, for example, colleges are actively involved in trying to ensue that conditions are right for inward investment into their localities by providing the right kinds of education and training both for initial labour market entrants and for older people. This includes those that may have been displaced from employment as some jobs are made redundant by technological change or other aspects of globalisation (EMSI (2008)).

Ethnicity and diversity brings new challenges at a local level (with links to past patterns of inward immigration. Concentration of ethnic groups in particular localities is increasing, with Leicester soon to be the UK’s first major city with the white indigenous population forming a minority.  There are a growing number of businesses run by members of the ethnic minorities, but this does always not guarantee a rosy picture for employment conditions for ethnic minority groups. Such employers are not always paternalistic (e.g. the recent Primark example of clothing suppliers exploiting their workforces).

Eberts (2008) argues that place specific policies are needed, focused on the demand for skills by employers (e.g. encouragement of HPWPs, Richard Florida type amenities; regional partnerships; and involvement of local FE colleges in economic development). He highlights a number of key features:

• Business as the main customer should be the main focus of this aspect of education;
• Outcomes and objectives should be agreed, quantified and tracked (SMART);
• Local organisations (including educational institutions) need to become more entrepreneurial, problem solvers, and stakeholders;
• The need for good labour market information, including projections to allow markets to adjust, as individuals make more informed decisions in a rapidly changing global economy (but note that this is not about trying to mechanistically and centrally plan to match skills supplies to developing needs).

Eberts (2008) also advocates education and training for disadvantaged groups to assist social inclusion and enhance social mobility. Particular initiatives may be needed in local labour markets with high unemployment among ethnic minorities and other disadvantaged groups. There may be particular need for effective training in manual skills, vocational training and courses starting and managing one’s own business (which includes coping with uncertainty and managing fluctuating income) for those displaced by the technological and other changes. It may also be necessary to give greater consideration to the welfare system’s response to handling uncertain income flows.

3.4.11             Educational demands from the informal economy

For the great majority, involvement in the informal economy is in many ways growing in significance, although the formal economy is still the main source of income and self esteem for most households. In the short term, economic circumstances (the recession) may force more people down the informal route (including the grey economy (and in extremis, criminal activity)). Informal work could be a more preferable alternative for many than employment in the formal economy in low skill, low wage jobs.  This involvement can be based around community/networking/ caring for others, as well as for the environment. This includes various types of voluntary work.  ICT also offers some new possibilities, including the exploitation of virtual worlds, although as noted in Wilson and Gambin (2008) the use of ICT also brings with it some risks of negative consequences.

All this needs changes in public policy (e.g. attitudes towards and support for entrepreneurship and innovation at a micro-level, as opposed to that carried out by large corporations), and the need to operate a more socially orientated economic/ humanist model.

It is a moot point to what extent entrepreneurship can be taught. However there is certainly a role for education in explaining to young people the importance of entrepreneurial activity in generating new goods and services and jobs. According to the review carried out by Wilson and Gambin (2008), there is evidence that the UK has a generally good record in providing a good environment for “doing business”, and for generally encouraging entrepreneurial activity. One key area of concern is that there appears to be a considerable fear of failure. This may be another area where education can help, by emphasising that risk of failure is an inevitable consequence of such activity, and encouraging a realistic appreciation of the potentially great rewards as well as risks of such activity. There is considerable evidence that people can learn from failure and education can be refocused to encourage this.

Other implications for education include:

• Making young people more aware of possibilities of the informal economy;
• Encouraging awareness within schools of young people currently engaged in caring for other family members (which affects their own education);
• Rethinking how the educational system might make contact with such carers to ensure their educational needs are met (ICT might help);
• Ensuring Life-long Learning, provision and access to those involved in the informal economy as well as for those in the formal economy;
• Identifying those in ethnic minority communities, working in family businesses and others disengaged from the formal economy who are missing out; again ICT may offer new and better ways of doing this.

There are also possible implications linked to trends in unpaid (e.g. voluntary) work. These include:

• Educating the younger generation about the costs of care for older adults, what care is, and how society should solve this growing problem of care in an ageing society;
• Educating for more equal gender balance in the amounts of informal care hours for older adults provided by households;
• Formal flexible working arrangements for employees to cope with care needs of older adults;
• Greater attention to child care provision to make sure quality grows and becomes more uniform and accessible in all areas, through systems of quality control, or licensing or inspections;
• Attention to the uniformity across local areas in quality and quantity of after-school and holiday care for school aged children;
• Training up a care workforce for older adults, which might be heavily dominated by immigrant labour, for quality care provision.

There are also implications for those living off benefits (which is likely to become of increasing significance in the short-term at least). Educational policy needs to be aimed at breaking the cycle of disadvantage that is often at the root of this. Family breakdown is of course an issue across all socio-economic groups, but as Dex (2008) it is especially severe in terms of its impact on children for those at the bottom of the income distribution. Dex (2008) suggests a number of specific policy implications:

• Parenting classes could be important in tackling low achievement and the effects of disadvantage (possibly involving the development of “all age” schools, thereby fostering a culture of Life-long learning).
• Parenting classes could be made mandatory for prospective parents when pregnant, as part of the antenatal ‘clinic’.
• Early intervention into the cycle of disadvantage at pre-school ages 3 -4 is likely to remain a top priority, and it may be necessary to spend more on this if the percentage of such children from disadvantaged families goes up as seems likely.
• The majority of children coming into compulsory school (5+) in future are likely to have had some child care, but only a minority will have had full-time care. This may require remedial action.
• Given evidence that suggests that children are disadvantaged by marital breakdown and lack of male role models, high divorce rates and high lone parent rates will lead to many children suffering emotional problems during school life, which will require remedial action.

3.4.12             Values, attitudes and motivation

A number of the reviews have highlighted changing social and economic values and how this relates to both work and employment and education.

The loss of deference in society generally is also reflected in schools. Such trends seem likely to continue. This has implications for how schools are organised, how they are run, as well as the aims and manner of conducting school inspections. There may be some lessons here from industry, where evidence from the workplace suggests that participatory models produce better results.

Other aspects include:

• Education to tackle bullying cultures;
• Balancing control and autonomy in the classroom to help better equip children for the world of work;
• Educating for identifying and handling stress;
• Recognising that the premium on learning and self direction will be high in the workplace;
• Education to promote personal development and Life-long Learning.

As noted in the recent report by the Children’s Society (2009), young people in particular are now bombarded continuously by the media to take part in consumerism, driven by fashion and other factors. It is argued there, and by others (e.g. Bauman, 2008), that there has been a steady shift towards self-interest and individualism, and away from altruism and societal values. Such discussions highlight the dichotomies between:

• Individualism versus collectivism;
• Materialism versus humanism;
• Those who work to live versus those who live to work.

The market economy and liberal values have come in for considerable criticism recently, especially following the excesses associated with the credit crunch.  The problem is finding some other generally acceptable mechanism, other than free market forces, to allocate and distribute incomes and jobs.  Consumerism is what keeps the economic world going round, and keeps most people in the UK country employed.

3.4.13             Careers guidance and advice

The dramatic structural changes taking place in the economy and the labour market will have significant implications for the types of jobs that will be available in the next 10-20 years, as set out above. This will result in the need for much better labour market information to inform citizens about these possibilities. This is recognised in the New Skills for New Jobs Initiative that has recently been launched by the CEC (2008).

Education at the beginning of the 21^st Century now faces the challenge of much more demanding requirements from employers; heterogeneous populations (with ethnic and language diversities and very high expectations); and a much less well established social order. All this has to be dealt with in the face of rapid technological, demographic and economic change (including in the short-term the imminent prospect of what could still turn out to be a major recession). The demands of the new knowledge economy, in the context of what Friedman (2007) describes as a “flatter world”, open to much sharper and immediate competition from many directions, may require a very different set of attributes in the second quarter of the 21^st Century.

To keep pace with these developments, there will be a need for greater emphasis on retraining and lifelong-learning to keep workers up to date (given the pace of change).

Technology mediated learning may help to achieve this, both in public and private sectors.

The need for effective and impartial Careers Information and Guidance is also growing, and this is likely to become even more important. But existing practices are too often constrained by outdated and outmoded systems and approaches.

Careers Guidance needs to be more focused on empowering individual choices, based on robust and unbiased information about the realities of prospects in the labour market.

The incentives built into the system at present may not be working as intended. Too many children are being given advice to stay on at school to follow academic course of study for which they are unsuited. The incentives are often wrong, focused on putting “bums on seats” not on the child’s best interest.

Finally, increasingly there is a need for a Life-long Learning perspective.  People will need more assistance at later stages in their lives, not just during initial education.

3.5    Concluding Remarks

The role of education in the world of work and employment

The overall aims of education are to impart knowledge and understanding. A key rationale for this is to help people to participate in the economy and society, and to make the most of the opportunities they face, maximising their potential.

Key trends in the world of work and employment

Much change is in prospect in the world of work, employment and education.  But equally there is often enormous inertia to be overcome. The world will look very different beyond 2025, but many elements will be familiar and similar to today. Continuity is just as important as change, although it is the latter that tends to be the prime focus of attention in the media and popular accounts.

Many of the more extreme changes in ways of working and employment patterns that have been identified in Section 2 may well take place, but they will remain of relatively minor significance in quantitative terms. For example, the significance of teleworking and use of virtual reality, will probably remain modest compared with the more conventional “9-5″ workplace environment. This is likely to remain the norm for many. The media tends to home in on the more dramatic and extreme possibilities rather than a more sober and measured assessment of what may actually happen and its real impact.

Previous extrapolations based on technological determinism have often been way off the mark. Projections made in the late 1970s on the expected impact of ICT were for the paperless office and mass unemployment, neither of which has come to pass.  Many of the more extreme technological extrapolations currently being mooted will undoubtedly suffer the same fate.

There will also be a considerable diversity of experience, and many differences between individuals and across employment types. Social exclusion and concerns about limited social mobility remain areas of key concern.  As William Gibson has famously put it: “The future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed”. One of the key roles of education is to help address these concerns.

Technological change is also resulting in the potential for dramatic changes in the possible locations – for both work and learning.

The influence of the media and communications will increase, (focusing on star/ celebrity effects, etc), causing problems in managing expectations for many young people, whose personal experiences are unlikely to match the aspirations encouraged by such role models. Trends towards emphasis on self and individualism are likely to continue.

Implications for education

Education will have a key role to play in placing more emphasis on helping people to understand society and the economy (and their role in it). This may include placing greater emphasis on social values, and helping people to gain a broader understanding of what makes for happiness.

The importance of reliable and robust labour market information and intelligence, and sound and impartial careers guidance and advice is likely to rise.

Many of the employment trends outlined in Section 2 have strong implications for education, for education providers and for educational policy makers.

• The changing patterns of jobs will require different types of skills and knowledge;
• a need for general management and other professional skills;
• there will be a requirement for some very high level technical skills, notably in STEM subjects;
• vocational education for more young people at entry level.

But there will also be a continued need for many lower skilled jobs. Education will be needed to help individuals understand their position in the world of work. This is in part about recognising the importance of lower skilled jobs, as wells as high skilled ones.  It is also about empowering individuals, helping them to learn to take advantage of opportunities and assist social mobility.

The general demand for formal qualifications will continue to rise, driven by both supply and demand side pressures. The importance of STEM subjects will also increase, although the cadre of people needed who are qualified at the highest level will probably remain small. However these will need to be of the highest quality to compete internationally. The importance of a range of generic skills, including communications, team-working, leadership, management, business, entrepreneurial skills, is also likely to grow.

However, for many individuals the benefits of formal qualifications will be questionable, and the value of a conventional academically focused curriculum dubious.

Education will be needed not just for work, but for life:

• this includes work in the informal economy;
• it will need to be available at all ages: Life-long Learning;
• it will need to be flexible (to help ensure work life balance).

A case can be made that education is currently too “front loaded”, with too much emphasis being placed on initial education (age 5-21). There is a need to develop new mechanisms for spreading the emphasis more evenly over a life time, with rights to sabbaticals, etc, as people have longer and less predictable working lives. This raises important questions about how the present institutional framework and systems could best adapt. There are, of course, often significant problems in designing new systems, especially incentives (which often have unintended consequences). There are also many important considerations from the point of view of the individual, if a life time of learning is to be achieved, not least the question of finance.

There are a number of crucial switch and transitions points in individual’s lives (from school to work, from one job to another, job and employment shifts linked to family formation, and the move from work to retirement, etc. These are often traumatic. More thought needs to be given by policy makers to what the State can do to ease these transitions; (including financial oiling of wheels, and financial entitlements to allow investment by the individual at later points in the life-cycle (but noting the previous problems with voucher type schemes).

All this raises doubts about whether the current “factory based” models (schools /colleges), providing education and training to large numbers at the same time, are the right ones.

It also raises practical questions about what the State can do to help individuals “follow their dream”. The business advisors model is not very practical; but NIACE have suggested the need for a regular “learning” heath check. There is some evidence that, when done well, personal advisors can help (as in Connexions).

New technology will also have significant implications for the educational process and delivery (ways of learning; plagiarism (a growing problem for assessment), where learning takes place, etc). There will be a continuing need for innovation and to find ways of making education relevant to young people and the changing face of work and society.

Needs of the economy

This will have various aspects, including a distinction between the needs of those parts of the economy most linked to the global economy and those more focused on meeting the needs of more domestic and local customers.

The evidence assembled in Section 2 emphasises (inter alia) the importance of:

• the basics (literacy and numeracy), which are the keys to learning to learn;
• skills in the use of the internet and ICT are also key elements;
• lifetime learning, which will be a key feature, although much of this may be informal or conducted in the workplace rather than in formal educational establishments;
• “DIY” or self-directed learning will increase in importance and in principle has enormous potential (but it also has limits);
• “just in time learning” (e.g. searching for information and knowledge on the internet as and when required), which be increasingly be the norm;
• managerial, leadership and entrepreneurial skills;
• the need also for managers to have soft-skills including recognition of the value of their work-force.
• diversity (including the effects of changing demographics, which will have some significant implications, with particular groups (older people, ethnic minorities)  imposing special demands on the system);
• the need for an understanding of other cultures and knowledge of languages in the context of the global economy (recognising that just as there are many students (and migrant workers) coming to the UK, there is an equal potential for more few UK students and temporary migrants going to other countries).
• some analysis emphasises the likely increased demand for high level skills and formal qualifications, but others question whether this increase in the  quality of work, will benefit more than a few;
• if these more pessimistic scenarios prevail, then for many work may mean less autonomy, less time to think, inequity, stress and related mental health issues;
• there are also issues about vulnerability, with those least able to adapt being most at risk.

This will all raise many questions for those involved in providing and delivering education and training:

• How best to ensure educational opportunity for everyone throughout their lives;
• How to help those who fail to benefit from the present system (especially the socially disadvantaged);
• How to ensure that everyone has the skills they need to find and retain a decent job;
• How to identify and remove any other barriers to success for disadvantaged groups;
• How to identify the skills people will need;
• How should people be advised and guided to make the right choices;
• How can education be used to empower individuals;
• What needs to be done to ensure that education and related activities will help to shape the future in a way that benefits society as a whole?

There are also a number of educational workforce issues.  These include:

• the stresses and burdens placed on teachers and lecturers by administrative overload, and emphasis on measurement and monitoring;
• status and pay.

Overcoming inertia:

There are many sources of inertia in the current systems and procedures for delivering education and training. This reflects vested interests, and other factors leading to resistance to change. These affect:

• Government (including DCSF/DIUS), which some see as part of the problem as well as the solution);
• Employers; and
• Individuals.

At the institutional level, it is imperative that there is a broader recognition of the role of education as preparation for work for all those in the population, not just the top of the academic ability range.

For employers, a clearer view is needed of what the role of work should be in a life-time of learning and how this is likely to change. They also need to articulate more clearly how their demands for skills are likely to change.

Finally for individuals, more help needs to be given to children (in particular) so that more of them have a better understanding of the role that education plays in their future life paths, and especially their prospects of securing and maintaining gainful employment. Too many still do not see the relevance and meaning of education, and there are some parts of the country where whole localities effectively “drop out” and disengage, leading to vicious circles of deprivation.

ANNEX A

The report forms part of a much larger programme of research entitled Beyond Current Horizons (BCH), which is focused on the Future of Education.

A series of initial papers were prepared for the BCH programme as part of a ground clearing exercise designed to identify any relevant research evidence. This lead to the BCH Expert Advisory Group defining a number of key Challenge areas, each covering issues and topics thought to be crucial to the future of education.

This report focuses on one of these Challenge areas. It is concerned with Working & Employment. It builds on an earlier paper by the author (Wilson, 2008) which was one of the initial series referred to above.

The Working and Employment Challenge

There is no shortage of research and commentary on the “Future of Work”. This has received a further boost in recent months, as the uncertainties associated with the worldwide financial crisis, and the subsequent economic recession, have increased. Academics and other commentators have produced enormous numbers of books, reports and journal articles focused entirely or in substantial part on the topics of future employment and work patterns. Technology and other changes are resulting in dramatic changes in how work is done and where it is undertaken. Globalisation has become the buzz word when discussing most economic and social issues. As a result of these developments, work can now easily be broken into smaller tasks and redistributed around the world. Dramatic improvements in real time communications, including the development of “virtual worlds”, are transforming the concept of what it means to be “at work”.

Sifting through all this material has presented a very real challenge. There is often a tendency to exaggerate and sensationalise in order to sell books and newspapers. In-depth and evidence based research by the academic community often suggests rather more inertia, and places more emphasis on trends which are evolutionary rather than revolutionary. This suggests that there is often a large gap between the rhetoric and myths perpetrated by some commentators and the reality of life in the workplace. This report attempts to provide an assessment of what is really likely to happen over the next 15 years or so, and to identify what are the main uncertainties in the area of Work and Employment.

The BCH programme allocated resources to each Challenge leader to help in the task of reviewing and synthesising the evidence, including asking other researchers to produce short Review Papers on topics of key interest. In the case of the present Challenge, these resources were deployed in the following ways:

• First, a Challenge Steering Group (CSG) was set up to help:
  • to prioritise the research areas to be considered;
  • to decide what specific reviews to commission and who might be asked to undertake them; and finally,
  • to provide a general sounding board in developing the present report.
• Second, the potential authors identified were asked to prepare short review papers on the selected topics;
• Third, a series of events (small seminars/workshops) were held: to discuss the matters raised; to identify common themes and gaps; and to help prioritise the key issues with regard to the objectives of the BCH programme finally;
• A series of Quick Reviews was also commissioned to fill in some of the main gaps identified;

Challenge Steering Group (CSG)

This comprised 4 acknowledged experts in the field of work and employment:

• Professor Lorna Unwin, (Dept. of Lifelong and Comparative Education, Institute of Education);
• Professor Ewart Keep, (Deputy Director, SKOPE, School of Social Sciences, Cardiff);
• Penny Tamkin, (Programme Director, the Work Foundation);
• Professor Alan Brown, (IER Warwick and TLRP Associate Director).

The Review Papers

A total of 19 Review Papers were commissioned, involving 21 authors, many of whom are recognised experts in their chosen areas of specialism. These papers are listed in the Reference section. They cover a range of topics intended to cover the most significant issues likely to affect the world of Work and Employment over the coming decades. This list was initially suggested by the author, and subsequently refined following comments and suggestions from the BCH EAG and the CSG.  Without these Reviews this report could not have been written.

In addition to the main Review Papers, a series of Quick Reviews was undertaken by Wilson and Gambin (2008). These were intended to fill in gaps identified by the author (in combination with the BCH EAG and CSG) after the first round of Review Papers had been completed.

All these papers will be made available on the BCH website.

The general brief for the Review Paper authors was to produce for their chosen topic a short paper which covered:

• The main trends and issues in the area concerned;
• Any possible discontinuities looking forward to 2025 and beyond;
• Uncertainties and any big tensions;
• Conclusions on what the key issues will be in the future, and initial reflections on any general implications for education.

It was emphasised that the reviews were not just about assembling Evidence, based on previous research, but also highlighting key Ideas and Values. In thinking about the future authors were asked to explore: Probable futures; Possible Futures; and Preferable futures. All Review authors were asked to bear in mind issues to do with the implications for the health, Well-being and happiness for children, families and workers.

The Events

The overall project Brief called for at least two events to be organised for each Challenge. These were intended as consultation and idea generation events (workshops or symposia), with attendees from a range of relevant disciplines, in order to explore connections between items of evidence from the reviews and generate new perspectives on the impact they may have on education.

The first event for the Working and Employment Challenge was held on 9th of October in London at TLRP offices. This event involved a number of the Review Paper authors, plus members of the CSG and others. This was a ground clearing and brainstorming event, facilitated by the author. It focused upon:

• Topics to be covered in the initial set of Review Papers;
• Possible gaps in the choice of Review Paper topics;
• Possible authors of Reviews not so far commissioned;
• Other areas of importance, for which there may be only limited research evidence.

As a result some new Review Papers were commissioned and others refocused.

Two subsequent events were held in December and January. These were smaller and focused on reviewing and synthesising the evidence assembled in the Review Papers and developing this Synoptic Report.

The purpose of this Synoptic Report

The main purpose of the Synoptic Report is to provide the Expert Advisory Group with a way of rapidly accessing the knowledge, evidence and ideas identified from the reviews carried out as part of the Working and Employment Challenge. This is intended to support the scenario development process that is a main component of the BCH programme.

It will also be used as the public facing summary of the findings of the Challenge in the final report from the programme.

References

Review papers prepared for the Working and Employment Challenge

Attwell, G and C. Costa (2008) Integrating personal learning and working environments. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge: Pontydysgu

Baldry, C . (2008) How will technological change affect opportunities for creating new economic activities, new sectors and new industries to the year 2025? Stirling Management School, University of Stirling

Bimrose, J. (2008) Careers guidance, identity and development. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Coventry

Bosworth, D.L. (2008) The R&D, knowledge, innovation triangle: education and economic performance. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Coventry

Brown, A. (2008) Developing expertise – moving beyond a focus on workplace competence, assessment and qualifications A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Coventry

Casey, B. (2008) The changing trajectory of working lives -what will be the impact of an ageing workforce and a longer working life? A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick,Coventry

Dex, S. (2008) Review of future of paid and unpaid work, informal work, homeworking, the place of work in the family (women single parents, workless households), benefits, work attitudes motivation and obligation. A Review Paper prepared for the Working & , Employment Challenge

Dixon, M. (2008) Information and communication technology, work and employment. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge.

Felstead, A. (2008) Detaching Work From Place: Charting The Progress Of Change And Its Implications For Learning. A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge:  Cardiff.

Gambin, L. and R. Wilson (2008) The Future of Work: What Does Work Mean? 2025 and Beyond. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education: Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick Coventry

Green, A. (2008a). The Importance of Place. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education, Working &, Employment Challenge: Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry

Green, F. (2008) The Growing Importance of Generic Skills. Department of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent, Canterbury.

Hogarth, T and D.L. Bosworth, (2008) Future Horizons for Work-life Balance. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education: A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick Coventry

Keep, E. (2008) Labour Market Structures and Trends, the Future of Work and The Implications for Initial E&T. A contribution to the Beyond Current Horizons programme on the Future of Education: A Review Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge

Overell, S. (2008) The Meaning of Work paper prepared for the Beyond Current Horizons Project

Powdthavee, N. (2008) Happiness and Well-being. A Review for Beyond Current Horizon Programme University of York.

Round, J. (2008) The boundaries between informal and formal work. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham

Tamkin, P. (2008) In Search of Leadership A paper prepared for BCH. Work Foundation

Unwin, L. (2008) Connecting Workplace Learning and VET to Lifelong Learning. Institute of Education: London.

Wilson, R.A. (2008) The Future of Work: What Does Work Mean 2025 and Beyond? Challenge Outline Paper prepared for DCSF “Beyond Current Horizons” Programme.

Wilson, R. and L. Gambin, (2008) Quick Reviews for the Beyond Current Horizons Work and Employment Challenge, (covering: Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM); Children’s work; Entrepreneurial activity and practices; Innovation and intellectual property rights; Emerging economies and virtual/synthetic worlds; Possible negative effects of technological development) Paper prepared for the Working &, Employment Challenge Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry

Other References

Barro R.J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York).

Bauman, Z. (2008) The absence of society. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. The Social Evils Series.

BCH (2007) Previous Global Futures, Technology Futures and Questions for Education: A provocation paper. Beyond Current Horizons programme for DCSF.

Birchall, D., S. Borrett, J. Gill, N. Silburn and P. Thomson (2005) Managing Tomorrow’s Worker: Final Report. Henley Management College.

Bonvin, J-M. and Farvaque, N.  (2006)  ‘Promoting Capability for Work: The Role of Local Actors’  in  Deneulin S., Nebel M. and Sagovsky N. (eds.)  The Capability Approach: Transforming unjust structures Dordrecht: Springer.

Bosworth, D and R. Wilson (2007) Trends in Employment Flexibility: Impact of Proposed Legislation on Managed Service Companies. Version 1.:paper prepared for Blairgowrie.

Bosworth, D.L. (2008).  “An Ageing Population: the Challenges Facing the UK”, Contribution to Skills in England, Learning and Skills Council.

Brown, P. D. Ashton, H. Lauder and G. Tholen, (2008). Towards a High-Skilled, Low-Waged Workforce? A Review of Global Trends in Education, Employment and the Labour Market. Monograph No. 10 October 2008, ESRC funded Centre on Skills, Knowledge and Organisational Performance. Cardiff and Oxford Universities, ISSN 1466-1535

CEC (2008) New skills for New Jobs: Anticipating and matching labour market and skills needs. Commission of the European Community. {SEC(2008) 3058}

CEDEFOP (2007a), Towards European skill needs forecasting. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.

CEDEFOP (2008a), Future skill needs in Europe. Focus on 2020.

CEDEFOP (2008b), Future skill needs in Europe. Medium-term forecast. Synthesis report.

Children’s Society (2009). A Good Childhood: Searching for Values in a Competitive Age (authors: Richard Layard and Judy Dunn). Children’s Society

Christensen, Clayton M. (2003), The innovator’s dilemma: the revolutionary book that will change the way you do business, New York: HarperCollins, ISBN 0-06-052199-6

Cliff, D., C. O’Malley, and J. Taylor (2008) Future Issues in Socio-Technical Change for UK Education. technology review conducted for the BCH Programme

Coffield (F. (2002). Britain’s continuing failure to train: the birth pangs of a new policy.  Journal of Education Policy.  Vol 17; Part 4, pages 483-497.

Dean, H, Bonvin, J.-M., Vielle, P. and Farvaque, N.  (2005)  ‘Developing Capabilities and Rights in Welfare-to-Work Policies’  European Societies 7(1): 3-26.

DCSF (2007) (Department for Children, Schools and Families) The Children’s Plan. Building brighter futures. Cm 7280 HMSO: London, December 2007.

Eberts, Randall W.  (2007)  Trends in Worker Requirements and the Need for Better Information to make more Informed Decisions in a Global Economy. W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Kalamazoo, MI, USA, Paper presented at the Session Entitled “Adult Skills and Working Opportunities” At the OECD’s 2nd World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge, and Policy, on “Measuring and Fostering the Progress of Societies”, Istanbul on 27-30 June, 2007.

EMSI (2006) Documenting and Assessing the Role of Community Colleges in Developing Human Capital (authors: Laanan, Frankie; Hardy, David; Katsinas, Stephen). Community College Journal of Research and Practice, Volume 30, Number 10, December 2006, pp. 855-869(15). Routledge

EMSI (2008) A Look at “Green” Occupations, Part 1. http://www.economicmodeling.com/resources/wp-content/uploads/green-jobs_final.pdf

ESRC Future of work Programme (2004) http://www.leeds.ac.uk/esrcfutureofwork/output/publications.html

Families and Work Institute (2005) study by the Families and Work Institute in New York

Florida, R (2005) The Flight of the Creative Class: The New Global Competition for Talent. HarperBusiness, Harper Collins Publishers

Friedman, T. (2007). The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century.

Future of Work Program (2007) see the Future of Work website http://www.thefutureofwork.net/community_levels.html

Giullari, G and J. Lewis (2005) ‘The Adult Worker Model, Gender Equality and Care’. Social Policy and Development Programme Paper Number 19, United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (April 2005).

Harper, S. (2008) Demography Challenge Paper. Commissioned by the BCH programme: Oxford Institute of Ageing.

HCIUSSC (2009) (House of Commons Innovation, Universities Science and Skills Committee) Re-skilling for recovery: After Leitch, implementing skills and training policies. First report of Session 2008-09, Volume 1 (HC 48-1incorporating 505-i-v, Session 2007-08)

Heeks, R. (2008) Current Analysis and Future Research Agenda on “Gold Farming”: Real-World Production in Developing Countries for the Virtual Economies of Online Games. Development Informatics Group, Paper No. 32, Institute for Development Policy and Management, University of Manchester, Arthur Lewis Building, Manchester, http://www.sed.manchester.ac.uk/idpm/research/publications/wp/di/documents/di_wp32.pdf

Henley Management Research Centres Future Work Forum: http://www.henleymc.ac.uk/henleyres03.nsf/pages/fwf

Jenkins, C. and B. Sherman (1979) The Collapse of Work. Eyre Methuen

Karoly, L. A. and C. W. A. Panis (2004). “The 21^st Century at Work: Forces Shaping the Future Workforce and Workplace in the United States. Study for the US Department of Labor. RAND Corporation, MG- 164-DOL, ISBN: 08330-3492-8.

Krugman, P. (2003) “Lumps of Labor.” The New York Times, 10.7.03

Leitch (2005) Skills in the UK: The long-term challenge, Interim Report, HMSO: ISBN: 1-84532-121-9

Leitch (2006) Prosperity for all in the global economy – world class skills. December 2006. HMSO: ISBN-10: 0-11-840486-5

Liddle, R.. and F. Lerais (2007) A Consultation Paper from the Bureau of European Policy, Advisers,  Europe’s Social Reality.

Migration Advisory Committee (MAC 2008b) The labour market impact of relaxing restrictions on employment in the UK of nationals of Bulgarian and Romanian EU member states,  December 2008,

Migration Advisory Committee (MAC, 2008a) Skilled Shortage Sensible: The recommended shortage occupation lists for the UK and Scotland. Produced by COI on behalf of the Migration Advisory Committee. ISBN: 978-1-84726-823-5  (www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/mac)

Moynagh, M and R. Worsley (2008) Going Global: Key Questions for the Twenty-First Century, A & C Black with Guardian Books.

Pink, D (2005). A Whole New Mind: Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age.

Purcell, K., Elias, P., Davies, R., & Wilton, N. (2005) The Class of ‘99: A study of the early labour market experience of recent graduates, DfES Research Report, Sheffield.

Sen, A.  (1999)  Development as Freedom  New York: Knopf.

Sennett, R, (1976) The Fall of Public Man, Penguin Books

Sennett, R, (2008) The Craftsman, Allen Lane.

Taylor, R. (2004a) Britain’s World of Work – Myths and Realities. An ESRC Future of Work Programme Seminar Series.  Future of Work Commentary Series: Publication Three.

Taylor, R. (2004b). The Future of Work-Life Balance. An ESRC Future of Work Programme Seminar Series. Future of Work Commentary Series: Publication Two.

Thomson, P. (2007) Tomorrow’s Leaders: Final Report. Henley Management College, Future Work Forum.

Tomlinson, M. (2004). 14-19 Curriculum and Qualifications Reform: Final Report of the Working Group on 14-19 Reform October 2004). DfES Publications, Nottinghamshire. DfE-0976-2004

Tomorrow project (2007) see website: http://www.tomorrowproject.net/pub/2__Website/The_Tomorrow_Project/-24.html (see also Moynagh, M and R. Worsley (2008))

UKCES (2009) Reviews of Investment in Education and Training by Individuals and Employers (Collective Measures and related projects, three reports covering: Employer Training: A Conceptual Review From A Public Policy Perspective. by D. L. Bosworth, Warwick Institute for Employment Research; Empirical Review, by T. Hogarth, L. Gambin, D. Bosworth & R.A. Wilson, prepared for UK CES by Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry; and Policy Review for UK CES Collective Measures Project. by A. Cox, F. Sumption and J. Hillage, Institute for Employment Studies; and Collective Measures Study):

Unwin, L. (2008a) Learning at Work: Opportunities and Barriers. State-of-Science Review: SR-A2 contribution to the UK Government’s Foresight Project, Mental Capital and Well-being: making the most of ourselves in the 21^st Century. Government Office for Science Foresight (website www.foresight.gov.uk).

Walker College (2008) What roles should schools play to assist maximum quality of transition from school to work? How should schools best work both with employers and pupils, including the most disadvantaged? presentation by Steve Gater, Headteacher, Walker Technology College, at Skills In England Seminar on Transition from School to Work, January 2008. See also the website http://www.walker.newcastle.sch.uk/

Whitley, J.D and R.A. Wilson (1987). ‘Quantifying the Impact of Information Technology on Employment using a Macroeconomic Model of the UK Economy’.  in Information Technology and Economic Perspectives.  Information Computer Communications Policy 12.  Paris:  OECD, 176-220.

Wilson et al. (2007), Skills in England 2007:  Key Messages Learning and Skills Council. Coventry. (see also other volumes at: http://research.lsc.gov.uk/LSC+Research/published/skills-in-england/).

Wilson, R. A., et al. (2008) Medium-term forecasts of occupational skill needs in Europe: Synthesis Report, paper presented at the CEDEFOP AGORA conference February 22-23. Thessalonoiki.

Wilson, R.A. (2007), Trends in Employment Creation in Europe. paper prepared for the Portuguese Presidency Conference on Employment In Europe – Prospects And Priorities, Lisbon, 8-9 October 2007

Wilson, R.A. (2007b) ‘Trends in Employment Creation in Europe’ in Perspectives on Employment and Social Policy Coordination in the European Union. Ministério do Trabalho e da Solidariedade Social, Lisbon. paper prepared for the Portuguese Presidency Conference on Employment In Europe – Prospects and Priorities, Lisbon, 8-9 October 2007.

Wilson, R.A. et al. (2008) Future skill needs in Europe Medium-term forecast: Synthesis Report, Cedefop / Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, ISBN 978-92-896-0500-7

Wilson, R.A., K. Homenidou and A. Dickerson (2006), Working Futures 2004-2014: National Report, Sector Skills Development Agency: Wath on Dearne. (see also the Sectoral, Regional Qualifications and Technical volumes at:  http://www.ssda.org.uk/ssda/default.aspx?page=28).

Wilson, R.A., K. Homenidou and L. Gambin (2009), Working Futures 2007-2017: UKCES: Wath on Dearne

Work Foundation (2006) The Knowledge Economy in Europe. (authors: Brinkley I and Lee N.) report prepared for the 2007 EU Spring Council, London, The Work Foundation (October 2006).

Yeats, Ronald, (2008) Article in the Sunday Express, 13/01/08, p55.

Zimmermann, B.  (2006)  ‘Pragmatism and the Capability Approach: Challenges in Social Theory and Empirical Research’  European Journal of Social Theory 9 (4): 467 – 484.

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation

See for example, neo-classical growth such as those outlined in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995), where the accumulation of human and physical capital is subject to diminishing returns (Barro, R.J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York).

Article by Ronald Yeats, Sunday Express, 13/01/08, p55.

See Wilson et al (2009), Cedefop (2007a, b and c) and Wilson et al. (2007) for details.

Skill is typically measured by occupation or qualification.

The UK’s Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) distinguishes a hierarchy of occupational titles and categories, dependent in art on the skill levels required to undertake them.

Formal qualifications are of course only a partial measure of the skills people have acquired, many of which are not formally accredited ad are acquired and developed after the process of initial education. Nevertheless formal qualifications have the huge advantage of ease of measurement.

There have been numerous attempts to define and measure these other aspects of skill, some of which are as much personal characteristics as competences that can be taught and acquired. In the UK the work of Francis Green and colleagues has been seminal (see Green (2008) for an overview).

Although note the caveats on this matter set out in Brown et al. (2008), who argue that the idea that the UK can become a predominately knowledge based economy is wishful thinking by politicians rather than a likely future outcome. Moreover, even those knowledge jobs that are created may offer much less scope for discretion (and hence job satisfaction and fulfilment) than their incumbents might hope.

Francis Green (2008) also discusses some aspects of this in his review.

So called “gold farming”, which involves playing or taking part in computer games on behalf of others to gain some economic reward in the “real” world.

There are some echoes here with problems of ensuring that there are sufficient teachers of good quality to nurture an adequate supply of high quality STEM graduates.

Barrs Hill is an example of a Full Service, Extended School, which aim to provide a more holistic approach to educating. Other agencies based in such schools can help with early interventions (linked to childcare, and working with parents). This was intended to become mainstream policy but seems to have been sidetracked.

There are three main narratives underpinning most discussions on the future of work. The first is that the formalisation of work is gathering pace, whereby products and services are increasingly being produced and delivered by the formal economy. Conversely, informal work, such as subsistence production, informal exchange and/or mutual aid, is rapidly becoming less relevant to everyday life. The second, known as the ‘commodification thesis’, suggests that capitalism is spreading into almost every corner of human activity. For example, this could include the marketisation of state functions or the pricing of environmental pollution such as carbon trading. The final narrative is that globalisation is gaining pace and that the path to development is the way of the free market, with nation states declining in economic importance. In other words the formal market knows the best course of action. Simultaneously, informal work, here taken to mean work that is not declared to the state but is legal in all other aspects, is seen as a brake on development and a residue of previous times.

Thus a binary division is constructed whereby the formal economy is seen as a positive, and thus the way to economic prosperity, while informal practices are cast in a negative light. For example, Hernando de Soto, the Peruvian economist, argued that the best way to formalise Latin America’s informal economies was to legally establish property rights (to allow people to borrow against them) and for the state to withdraw from everyday life. This echoes the policy prescriptions given in the late 1980s and early 1990s to Latin America and the former Soviet states by organisations such as the World Bank and the IMF. Central to these policies, which became known as the Washington Consensus, was that the formal market ‘knows best’ and as it grew people would be drawn into it. Formal work is also equated to ‘decent work’ as a recent report stated: “On the balance: The informal sector is dominant in developing countries … though its reduction is crucial for securing decent work”. This is, of course, not to say that all informal work is positive, as will be discussed further below, but such statements demonstrate the persuasiveness of the formal economy. Indeed the very terms used to describe informal work demonstrate its negative construction. Such practices are commonly referred to as ‘non-official’, ‘non-organised’, ‘hidden’, ‘black’, ’shadow’, ‘non-visible’, ’submerged’, ‘irregular’, etc. Thus informal work is almost always defined by what it is not, ie its lack of engagement with the formal economy.

Despite the widespread acceptance of the above narratives there is a growing literature that refutes such discourses. The prime reason for this is the recognition that in fact the informal economy is not disappearing and for many plays an important role in everyday life. Across the world informal economies are a significant percentage of GDP and there is evidence that their size is in fact growing. Friedrich Schneider estimated in 2006 that the size of the global shadow economy (as a percentage of GDP) was 35.2%, an increase of 1.6% from 1999/00. Of course within these figures there are wide variations between countries, ranging from the United States with a figure of 8.4%, to Bolivia with 68.3%. Only two countries have a single digit figure (the USA and Switzerland) with the vast majority over 20%. Very few countries have experienced a significant decrease in their shadow economy over this period. While the averages for the OECD countries are lower than the global figure, they still demonstrate the importance of informal economies in ‘developed’ regions of the world. Furthermore, Schneider states that between 1989 and 2002 the average size of the OECD countries’ informal sector rose by over a quarter. The International Labour Organisation has gone so far as to say that in the last thirty years the growth of informal economies has been ‘phenomenal’.

Most commentators accept that such figures are probably underestimates as people are, understandably, reticent to reveal the scale of their informal work due to fear of detection. Furthermore, surveys often fail to observe the full range of informal work, as respondents are unaware that some of their practices could be included. For example, people who provide unpaid care for others rarely state this in informal work surveys. What is clear, however, is that non-formal work is not decreasing in relevance: as Table 3 shows, in relation to the percentage of total work time devoted to unpaid work many major economies are moving towards informalisation.

Thus it can be seen that the formalisation and commodification theses are rather problematic. Not only do they ignore the fact that the informal economy is still significant but they also take a very narrow view on what constitutes economic activity. The following section demonstrates the wide variety of informal work practices, and some of the motivations behind them, in operation today.

The spectrum of informal work

As noted above, work is often split into a binary division, formal and informal. Such a narrow definition is very unhelpful when conceptualising informal practices, as it often leads to the assumption that it is only referring to ‘cash in hand’ work. However, forms of informal work are much broader than this. Discounting illegal activities the spectrum of informal practices includes unpaid work, volunteering, the exchange of goods, intergenerational transfers, mutual aid, ‘not for profit’ schemes, subsistence production (which includes not only growing your own food but also making/repairing clothes, etc), informal micro-enterprises and, of course, ‘cash in hand’ work. Gibson-Graham (two prominent geographers who critiqued the nature of the formal economy from a feminist perspective) developed an ‘iceberg’ analogy to show the diversity of the economy beyond the formal.

Within many of these practices profit is not the main goal, if it is a goal at all. Environmental and social justice concerns are often given priority and there is a sense that people wish to operate outside the mainstream economy. There are many reasons why people wish to do so. Of course the state, and most economists, would argue that people undertake such actions simply to avoid tax and/or that people from economically marginalised communities have no choice but to undertake such work. Again we can see that binary divisions are in operation (tax payment/avoidance, rich/poor); however, the motivations for engaging in such practices are far more diverse. Williams and Windebank have shown that in many instances it is those in higher income brackets who undertake cash in hand work (both as consumers and providers) as a means of increasing their income. Furthermore, it is not just about saving money. While the reduced cost of cash in hand work is a major attraction, other issues, such as reliability or not being able to afford the formal price, are important.

Enterprise formation is a major driver of the informal economy and again it is assumed that firms that operate in this manner are doing so solely to avoid taxation payments. Many micro-enterprises operate informally in the first instance, as the entrepreneur wants to see if the idea will work and become profitable before taking the step into the formal sphere. This is mainly due to the bureaucracy, time and costs involved in registering a formal firm. Migrants, for example, might find it difficult to obtain the information needed to register a firm or they might be unsure of the length of time they will be in the region. If the firm does become a success then the initial period of informality becomes a barrier to formalisation, as the entrepreneur might be unable to pay back taxes or is fearful of prosecution. Often enterprises that are not motivated by profit do not see the reason for formal registration as they do not want to spend time filling out forms or to be monitored by the state.

At the household level again there are many motivations for undertaking informal practices. Often it can be to save money; for example, there has been a reported increase in domestic food production in response to the recent rises in food prices. But in reality the motivations go much deeper than this. Growing one’s own food can have environmental and social considerations as well as cost benefits. It is also reported that there is a significant increase in intergenerational transfers and mutual aid, for example, parents helping their children raise a deposit for their first home or helping out with repairs. Although services such as childcare and household repairs are increasingly commoditised (right word??) many people prefer to keep such services within their social networks. Again the issue of cost is important but people also wish to ‘employ’ people they know and to use such exchanges as a way of building their social capital. For example, if you undertake some unpaid work for an acquaintance then they will be obliged to do some for you in return in the future. There is evidence that informal intergenerational support is increasing with young adults increasingly dependent on their parents. A study in the USA by the Institute of Social Research, found that between the ages of 18 and 34, young adults receive, on average, $38,000 in cash transfers, and perhaps more surprisingly, the equivalent of two years worth of full time labour. These figures, the researchers found, have increased dramatically over recent years.

Unpaid work within the home must also be considered within this spectrum. Such activities can take many forms such as childcare, caring and household jobs. While there has been some commodification of these processes, with, for example, an increase in ‘live-in childcare’ it is still not the norm. It is common for friends to group together to provide childcare to allow the other members to undertake formal work, an unofficial form of kindergarten, and there is an observed rise in the number of people providing ‘long distance granny nanny’ assistance. A time use survey conducted in 2005 by the Office of National Statistics found that on average people in Great Britain spent 142 minutes per day on unpaid housework. The survey found that 77% of men and 92% of women spent time each day undertaking such practices. This demonstrates both the gendered aspect of this informal economy and its importance to households.

Unpaid care giving provides perhaps the clearest example of the scale, and importance, of the informal economy within households. The Carers UK organisation estimates that almost six million people provide unpaid care within the UK and that the number grows by over 6,000 people every day. Buckner and Yeandle (2007) have calculated that this informal care giving has an economic value of over £87 billion per year. This is considerably more than the cost of formal health care in the UK with the cost of the National Health Service audited at £81 billion for 2006/7. Thus there is clear link between the formal and informal economies as the state, and the tax payer, would find it extremely difficult to provide health care without this informal support. As one of their interviewees states ’society would collapse without carers …’.

Volunteering outside the home is also an important factor in the relationships between the formal and informal economies. The 2001 Home Office Citizenship Survey found that 39% of people had volunteered formally in the previous 12 months and that 67% had done so informally. These are obviously significant figures and again demonstrate that for many people the formal economy is not their sole sphere of activity. The Community Service Volunteers organisation, applying the minimum wage to the unpaid work their volunteers undertook, estimated that the commodified value of their unpaid work was over £28 million in 2006/7, a significant input into local communities.

This necessarily brief overview of the forms of informal economic practices demonstrates that rather than a formal/informal economy there exists, as noted by Gibson-Graham in table below, a ‘diverse economy’. Many individuals/households employ a ‘livelihood jigsaw’ that comprises a range of both formal and informal practices. This is not a static relationship, as people move in and out of formal and informal spheres on a constant basis. However, it is clear that the informal economy is of vital importance to many people and often it provides the platform from which individuals are enabled to operate in the formal economy.

Sites of resistance or exploitation?

Although the above discussions detail the often positive aspects of informal work practices, when moving away from the traditional formal/informal definition care must be taken not to over romanticise informal work. Within the social sciences there is a trend to see informal work as an alternative, or resistance, to capitalism. While for some people this might be the case, for the majority of people the formal sphere still plays an important role in their everyday lives. By merely highlighting the positive another over-simplified dichotomy is put in place. As Smith and Stenning (2006, p3) state, ‘existing work on diverse economies … runs the risk of failing to problematize the forms of exploitation and inequality within the alternative, “non-capitalist” economies, despite theoretical cautions to the contrary’. Thus it is even more important here to realise that informal economies take many forms. Many of the practices described above can often be personally rewarding but they take up a great deal of time and, particularly in the case of care giving, there is little support and relief.

In many cases people wish to move their informal work into the formal sphere. Although intuitively it might seem a positive to avoid tax payments, in reality it provides many barriers. Such workers, or entrepreneurs, find it difficult to obtain credit and the lack of social security is a constant worry. In a similar theme it must also be remembered that in numerous cases workers have little choice but to work in an informal manner due to the actions of their employers. It might be that they are forced to accept cash in hand wages so the employer can avoid payroll taxes, or that informal payments are demanded to secure employment. The negative aspects of such work are numerous. Firstly, the worker has very little long-term security as he/she can be dismissed at will and there is no recourse if wage payments are not made. Secondly, such work is often exploitative, characterised by long working hours with no holiday or sick pay entitlements. Migrant workers might find that large deductions are made from their wages for their accommodation or they find themselves ‘tied’ to an employer to repay a transport or arrangement fee. Perhaps most seriously, however, is that such work often breaches Health and Safety regulations and is not subject to inspections. This can often lead to tragedy such as the deaths of twenty three Chinese cockle pickers in Morecombe Bay. While this is an extreme example, across the globe vast swathes of production are undertaken by economically marginalised ’sweatshop’ workers in dangerous conditions. By no stretch of the imagination could any of this paid informal work be construed as an alternative to capitalism in a positive way.

This is not to say that all informal work is negative. For many people it does provide a positive alternative to the formal sphere, be it for economic, ideological or environmental reasons. However, these positive/negative aspects again demonstrate the need for a much broader approach to the relationships between formal and informal spheres.

Virtual economies

In recent times new phenomena have developed in the informal economies – one of the most visible has been the rise of the car boot sale. This is semi-commodified as people have to pay for a pitch but the sale of goods is informal. This has also coincided with an increase in ’second hand’ shops on the high street – either for charity, exchange or sometimes profit.

Increasing internet use has led to the rise of sites such as eBay where people can sell goods on an informal basis. Often though such sites become mirrors of the formal economy with people setting up virtual shops – though of course one can speculate how much of the trading is still done informally (ie no tax is paid). There are numerous sites, however, dedicated to unpaid exchange and informal selling such as Craig’s list and Freecycle which demonstrate the importance of informal economies within virtual communities.

An interesting link between informal and formal economies is provided by online virtual world games such as Second Life, Entropia Universe and IMVU, for example, whereby currency earned in the game can be transferred out and converted to real currency – thus allowing people to earn money in virtual worlds. Conversely, items for game play, such as virtual ‘clothing’, ‘weapons’ etc can be purchased online on sites like eBay and transferred into virtual worlds. Also there is evidence of people being paid to play games in order to accrue experience and items for their ‘employee’ – thus the distinction between virtual and real formal/informal economies is becoming increasingly blurred. Furthermore, many real world firms are setting up online in Second Life, as are advertisers, etc. Universities also have a presence both in order to attract new students and teach current ones – therefore an informal space can easily become a formal site of commerce. Of course informal real world activities such as the distribution of pornography also take place in virtual worlds.

Probable futures

As the above has demonstrated, the informal economy is much more than merely a leftover from a previous time. It is clearly still of importance to many households and there is little evidence that it is declining in size. Given that informal economies have flourished during an era of rapid globalisation and the alleged commodification of everyday life, there is no reason to assume that they will diminish in importance over the next twenty-five years. If the current ‘credit crunch’ leads to a long period of recession then it can be expected to grow. This might be linked to formal work, such as ‘cash in hand’ work, in order to maximum household income. More likely, however, it will involve practices such as domestically produced food, the mending or making of clothes and an increase in domestic work, caring and childcare. Even when the economy grows rapidly as during the period from the early 1990s to 2007, this sustained economic growth has not led to a decrease in informal activity.

Despite the fact that the informal economy is not going to disappear it is probable that the state will continue to struggle to conceptualise the various forms of informal work and their relationship to the formal economy. This is somewhat understandable given the negative connotations of some spheres of the informal economy, as discussed above, and the fact that in certain situations it is exploitative, dangerous and illegal. Therefore, the relationship between the formal and informal will continue to be seen in binary terms, positive and negative respectively, for the foreseeable future. It would be very hard, for example, for any government to state that micro-entrepreneurs who are working ‘off the books’ have a positive impact upon the formal economy. Hence it is probable that government policy will concentrate on ’stick’ methods for trying to contain the informal economy, such as penalties for ‘cash in hand’ work and fines for previous tax evasion, rather than using incentives, such as ‘forgiveness’ for the previous non-payment of tax or ‘tax free’ or ‘tax deferment’ periods, to encourage micro-enterprises to move into the formal sphere.

Demographic changes will also impact upon the nature of informal economies. As Europe’s population ages then more people will perform unpaid caring roles as parents and friends require assistance in their later life stages. Furthermore, as life expectancy increases people will have more time to devote to informal activities post-retirement age. This will see an increase in grandparents providing childcare and other assistance to their children. Intergenerational transfers between parents and children will become even more important as student debt levels increase and first-time buyers continue to struggle to raise a deposit to purchase a house. Therefore, it is probable that children will remain at home for longer, often returning after university, receiving the informal support of their parents. This trend can also be seen in the rise of what is termed ‘helicopter parenting’ where the recent rise in communication technology has made it much easier for parents to remain in contact with their children, and conversely, children find it much easier to contact their parents if they need their support or a job done.

It is probable that there will be a growth in the importance of informal economies in, and around, virtual worlds. This will involve the growth of games such as Second Life and Entropia and the continuing importance of social networking sites. Sites such as Facebook will be used to share information and to alert people to opportunities in both the formal and informal economies. As environmental concerns grow over the next 25 years, the recycling and sharing of goods, such as the gifting of unwanted goods or car-pooling, will become increasingly common and will be facilitated by online communities and websites. Although the expected rise in home working, as a result of more effective ICT, has not materialised it can be expected that in 25 years time more people will be able to work from home. This, if working time does not increase correspondingly, will reduce the amount of time required for formal work (for instance, commuting will no longer add to the working day), leaving people with more time for leisure and informal activities. Such home working will also spur the creation of consultancies and micro-enterprises, which may begin in an informal fashion.

On a more negative note, if economic polarisation continues to grow at current rates then over the next twenty-five years increasing numbers of people will turn to informal economies in order to ensure the economic security of their household. This will be a mix of illegal and legal activities and will see people move even further from the formal sphere, and will possibly see an increase in levels of exploitation and unsafe working conditions.

Preferable futures

The most preferable vision is one where the meta-narratives surrounding the informal economy are broken down. It is hoped that there is a more widespread realisation that there is a wide spectrum of informal activities and that there are both positive and negative aspects to many of the practices. Perhaps the most important recognition is that in many cases the informal economy supports the formal economy. For example, without informal childcare some people would be unable to undertake formal work. It must also be realised that there is a deep social aspect to many informal practices that strengthen networks and often fulfil the formal role of the state, such as unpaid care giving.

If the varied nature of the informal is unpacked then it will be much easier to develop appropriate blanket policy responses rather than a ‘catch all’ approach. At one end of the spectrum, dangerous, criminal and large-scale informal activities such as drug and people smuggling should, obviously, be targeted with the full force of the law, while at the same time informal micro-enterprises should be incentivised into moving into the formal sphere. This could be facilitated by various policy measures such as a longer period where they can go unregistered, tax forgiveness or deferment, greater support, advice centres, access to accountants and tax advisors, etc.

A shift in culture towards rewarding entrepreneurship would also support such measures. For example, in the USA and Japan, entrepreneurs and innovators have a much higher public standing and as a result there is more of an entrepreneurial culture. The informal economy has an important role here as there is much less risk in operating informally in the gestation period of an enterprise – ie less money is invested, payments/time for registration are much lower. Furthermore, less punitive bankruptcy laws (and reduced stigma, which would arise from the culture change) would encourage people to take the steps into entrepreneurship and to try out ideas in the informal sphere before moving them into the formal.

In this preferable future employers who force employees into informal practices are clamped down upon, allowing those who wish their work to be formalised to do so. Furthermore, those undertaking informal work to support those in formal work, such as childcare or care provision, should have their efforts recognised and rewarded. This could be through direct payments or tax credits. Moving these roles into a more formal sphere would allow for training and support to be given. This is particularly important for those undertaking such work, such as school age children supporting parents. Increased social support facilities, such as childcare, would allow people to undertake formal work who otherwise would not have the time to do so – or who would be spending so much of their formal income on support as to not make it worthwhile to do so.

The preferable future would harness a more socially orientated economic model, where profit is not the main goal, which would assist all sections of society and harness the activities of both the formal and informal spheres. Volunteering and mutual aid would be promoted as key functions of society and Local Exchange Trading schemes (LETs) would flourish. While some of these actions might seem utopian in thinking and would cost the state money, the increase in tax revenue from the formalisation of informal enterprises would go some way to covering these costs. In short, informal economies are here to stay and the preferable future will be one that is able to harness their positive aspects for all of society.

The implications of the growth of the informal economy on education

The informal economy has a number of implications for education, especially in relation to lifelong learning. It can be argued that within schools there needs to be more discussion on the nature of informal economies and work. This would help promote the positive aspects of practices such as volunteering, mutual aid and the role of family and friendship networks in everyday life. On a more practical note as discussed above, there are a significant number of school age children who have to provide care to family members. The Education Network estimated in 2005 that there were around 175,000 school children who are devoting a significant amount of their time to caring for others. The Princess Trust for Young Carers notes that there are many problems that these carers face, such as a lack of time to do school work, limited social opportunities, unhealthy lifestyles (such as a lack of sleep due to night time care or limited shopping opportunities), amongst many others. All of these issues impact on their ability to enter the formal workplace when they leave school. While there is some attention paid to this problem there needs to be a greater understanding of the issue; for example, some schools believe no one attending their institution has to perform these roles.

Within the Higher Education sector, especially in Business and Management Schools, more attention needs to be paid to the varied nature of the informal economy. Business education would be an ideal place to start a broader rethinking of the ways in which informal economies could be drawn into the formal spheres. For example, entrepreneurs and managers in the formal sphere act as mentors to micro-enterprises, providing guidance on how they can formalise their work.

Arguably the biggest implication of the growth in informal economies on the education sector is in relation to lifelong learning. Workers in the informal economy develop many important skills that are relevant to the formal economy but often they are not recognised by formal employers. Furthermore, it can be difficult for informal workers to access courses aimed at developing different skill sets, for example the use of ICT in the workplace. While the government has set up numerous schemes aimed at helping people develop such skills they are often aimed at people who are not in work. This means it can be difficult for people who are working informally to access them, for example, because of a lack of time or childcare problems. This issue has been identified by the International Labour Organisation, which argues that such training must fulfil the following criteria:

• Training must be demand-driven
• Training must be targeted and needs-led
• Skills training for the informal economy needs to go beyond technical skills training
• Training has to be short, modest, and competency based
• Training should recognize complex livelihoods
• Training should be monitored and evaluated on an ongoing basis
• Trainers themselves should be adequately trained and capable of delivering quality training
• Both public and private training providers have important roles to play
• The level of skill adaptation impacts on the extent to which new technologies can increase productivity in the informal economy.

Another form of education/training that informal micro-enterprises would benefit from is the provision of centres that could provide confidential guidance on the procedures needed to move into the formal economy. This would include, for example, advice on tax, employment rights, and health and safety regulations. The confidential nature of such guidance would encourage entrepreneurs to come forward without the fear of penalties.

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

Norwegian report on informal work

see Gershuny,2000; ILO, 2002a, b; Schneider and Enste, 2000; Williams, 2004a, b, 2005a, b; Williams and Windebank, 1999a, b)

2315 Schneider, F., Shadow Economies and Corruption All Over the World: What Do We Really Know?

Schneider, F., (2002) The Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of 22 Transition and 21 OECD Countries

http://www.cinterfor.org.uy/public/english/region/ampro/cinterfor/temas/informal/

On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy (MacArthur Foundation Series) (Hardcover) by Richard A. Settersten Jr. (Editor), Frank F. Furstenberg Jr. (Editor), Ruben G. Rumbaut (Editor)

listen to http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/womanshour/02/2008_19_thu.shtml

Oughton, E., Wheelock, J. and Baines, S. (2003) ”Micro-businesses and Social Inclusion in

Rural Households: A Comparative Analysis,” Sociologia Ruralis 43(4): 331-348

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_east/4088650.stm

Bender, 2004; Castree et al, 2004; Espenshade, 2004; Hapke, 2004; A. Ross, 2004; R. Ross, 2004

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2005/apr/13/schools.children

http://www.carers.org/professionals/young-carers/articles/transitions-to-adulthood-for-carers,3167,PR.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2005/apr/13/schools.children http://www.t-e-n.co.uk/index.php

http://www.jrf.org.uk/bookshop/details.asp?pubID=793

The way we speak of leadership anticipates a belief in its value. Definitions of leadership are numerous but most contemporary ones include elements of defining and articulating shared organisational vision and the mobilisation of others towards reaching those goals, by engaging, inspiring and supporting individual and team effort. The emphasis has shifted over the years from influence through compliance; “the ability to impress the will of the leader on those led and to induce obedience, respect loyalty and co-operation”, (Stewart, quoted in Moore, 1927) to one that is more clearly based upon mutual benefit; “leaders lead by pulling rather than pushing; by inspiring rather than challenging; by creating achievable expectations and rewarding progress toward them rather than by manipulating; by enabling people to use their own initiative and experiences rather than by denying or constraining their experiences and actions ” (Bennis and Nanus, 1985).”

The direct impact of effective leadership upon organisational performance, however, is often inferred, assumed and researched in a post-hoc direction. Thus, it has been customary to identify individual high performing organisations and then to study their leaders’ attributes, styles and approaches – inferring a causal relationship after the event. What is more, this is typically done on a single case basis – when the organisation is at its peak of performance, or alarmingly more recently, when there is a high profile incidence of scandal or exceptionally poor performance. The inferences that are drawn from these examples tend to be tentative at best, and unjustifiable at worst.

Inevitably leadership is set in this time and firmly located in the hopes, anxieties and culture of the time. Perhaps we get the leadership we deserve. Certainly views on leadership have shifted dramatically over the years and we may construe this as an act of progression, ie leadership and management theories come closer to the truth and more sophisticated over time, or perhaps, drawing on Abbott’s view of the evolution of knowledge in the social sciences (Abbott, 2001), knowledge creation within management and leadership is circular, with new schools of thought less a reaction to an established order than a reinvention of fundamental concepts. Or indeed it may be that each theory is embedded within its political and sociological context and aligns itself with wider concerns and beliefs of the time.

Although there has been commentary regarding the role of management in the darkest recesses of history – the Sumerians in 3000BC kept records of business transactions and in 400 BC Socrates defined management as a separate skill from technical knowledge and experience. The beginning of modern management, though, might be seen to have its seeds in the mid-19th century with the rise of the Industrial Revolution in the Western world. It is difficult to imagine the social and political upheaval of the time, ie the transition from agriculture and craft work towards the creation of factory environments. But it was not a shift dependent merely on technological advance, crucial though that may have been. It was rather the simultaneous coming together of a number of social and conceptual changes. In part its roots might be seen in the Age of Enlightenment which found a growing acceptance of scientific knowledge and the advocacy of reason as the primary basis of authority. With the Enlightenment the stage was set for the beginning of Capitalism and the laissez-faire economics of Adam Smith (The Wealth of Nations, 1776). The Industrial Revolution also drew breath from the social shifts caused by the Agricultural Revolution which sent many seeking work into towns and cities as they were no longer able to earn a living from the land. At the same time a relatively high population in the UK, free trade across the country (at a time when this was not the case across much of Europe) and growing international trade created potential markets. Placed into the same pot, the result was a unique environment where major new inventions could take root.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution

The impact was the concentration of jobs into the new factories and a resulting step change in the organisation of labour. These early factories were miserable affairs – punishingly long hours, poor working conditions and child labour that were only gradually attenuated. As a result the shifts in production, in society and in technology were profound. At the beginning of the 20th century conditions were set for a reflection on its impact and meaning and for the study of the organisation of work and management to take hold. Inevitably the changes led to a certain discomfort as they bedded in and adjusted, and as a result, many commented critically on what they observed.

Perhaps one of the most famous management thinkers was Frederick Winslow Taylor, an American engineer who had learnt his trade alongside the steel workers at the turn of the century. He had been struck by the inefficiencies and poor practices that seemed to abound at that time, with workers deliberately limiting their productivity for fear of the contempt of their peers and a widespread belief that greater productivity would result in fewer jobs. His thoughts on scientific management were published in various essays in 1911, and focused on breaking jobs down into tasks and finding the best way to perform them. He expressed a variety of concerns over the lack of efficiency that he saw all around him, over the adversarial nature of much of the relationships between employers and employees, and over the lack of leaders and good workers. Some of what he had to say seems curiously current in its concerns; he certainly thought that there was too much conflict in the relationships between workers and employers:

It would seem to be so self-evident that maximum prosperity for the employer, coupled with maximum prosperity for the employee, ought to be the two leading objects of management, that even to state this fact should be unnecessary. And yet there is no question that, throughout the industrial world, a large part of the organization of employers, as well as employees, is for war rather than for peace, and that perhaps the majority on either side do not believe that it is possible so to arrange their mutual relations that their interests become identical.

He also believed that managers should work closely with their workers:

And each man should daily be taught by and receive the most friendly help from those who are over him, instead of being, at the one extreme, driven or coerced by his bosses, and at the other left to his own unaided devices. (Taylor, 1911)

Despite these beliefs, workers were not always grateful for his efforts and his theories had to be implemented with some force and effort for the change he was seeking to take effect.

Another influential thinker of the same time was Max Weber (1864-1920), a German sociologist and political economist who also theorised about organisational systematic control and influence. He is most famous for his conceptualisation of bureaucracy – an ideal bureaucracy was defined by a hierarchy, a degree of impersonality, written rules of conduct, a focus on achievement or performance, efficiency and a specialised division of labour. Such bureaucracies might be seen as a means of expressing rational authority, compared to traditional authority or charismatic authority. Weber was not, however, universally positive about what he saw as its characteristics. In fact Weber’s views about the inescapable rationalization and bureaucratization had similarities to Marx’s notion of alienation. Both men agreed that modern methods of organization had tremendously increased the effectiveness and efficiency of production and organization and allowed an unprecedented domination of man over the world of nature. They also agreed that the new world of rationalized efficiency had the downside of dehumanising the worker. But whereas Marx felt that this was merely a transitional stage and that workers would rise up and force a new world order, Weber saw such bureaucratisation as inevitable.

Weber and Taylor were both drawn to the promise of increasing efficiency and were both aware of how this efficiency might bring greater growth and increased standards of living. Weber, however, also saw the potential dangers of doing so.

We can see how, in this era of efficiency and structure and process, the role of the manager was beginning to emerge as essential to keep production running. No surprises then that in this period there emerged a comprehensive theory of management which captured these needs (Henri Fayol). Fayol’s approach to management (published in 1916, although it did not achieve widespread impact until its translation in 1940) considered 5 aspects of a manager’s job:

• Planning
• Organizing
• Commanding
• Coordinating activities
• Controlling performance

And fourteen of what he termed principles of management (1916):

1. Specialization of labour – which encourages improvements in skills and methods
2. Authority – the right to give orders.
3. Discipline – obedience, application, energy, behaviour and outward marks of respect observed in accordance with standing agreements between firms and its employees
4. Unity of command – each employee has one person who will give them instructions.
5. Unity of direction – one person generates a plan and all play their part in that plan.
6. Subordination of individual interests – an individual’s interests should not prevail over the interests of the organisation.
7. Remuneration – employees should receive fair payment for services.
8. Centralization – consolidation of management functions. Decisions are made from the top.
9. Scalar Chain (line of authority) – a formal chain of command running from top to bottom of the organization, which should be clear, sensible and understood
10. Order – an organisation “should” provide an orderly place for each individual member – who needs to see how their role fits into the organisation and be confident, able to predict the organisation’s behaviour towards them.
11. Equity – equity, fairness and a sense of justice “should” pervade the organisation – in principle and practice
12. Personnel tenure – time is needed for the employee to adapt to his/her work and perform it effectively. Stability of tenure promotes loyalty to the organisation, its purposes and values.
13. Initiative – at all levels of the organisational structure, zeal, enthusiasm and energy are enabled by people having the scope for personal initiative.
14. Esprit de corps – harmony and cohesion among personnel.

We might see Taylor and Fayol as complementary, the one seeing the need for greater efficiency in the doing of work, the other in its control, but Fayol himself saw his thinking as distinct. In the classic ‘General and Industrial Management’ Fayol wrote that

“Taylor’s approach differs from the one we have outlined in that he examines the firm from the “bottom up.” He starts with the most elemental units of activity — the workers’ actions — then studies the effects of their actions on productivity, devises new methods for making them more efficient, and applies what he learns at lower levels to the hierarchy … (Fayol, 1949, p43).”

Nonetheless, perhaps with the benefits of hindsight we can see a commonality of view embedded in the conditions of the time which believed management to be fundamentally about control and creating effective systems and processes of work. There was another management thinker who took a very different view. Mary Parker Follett (1868-1933) spoke of a much more humanistic management. Follett suggested that organizations function on the principle of power “with” and not power “over.” She recognized the holistic nature of community and advanced the idea of “reciprocal relationships” in understanding the dynamic aspects of the individual in relationship to others. Follett advocated the principle of integration and “power sharing.” Her writings might be thought of as out of step with the common themes of the time and it is only relatively recently that her contribution has been more widely acknowledged. At this time of emerging thinking regarding management and leadership it can be seen to be a response to new problems and issues. The main movement emphasised efficiency whilst we see the emergence of more radical thinking which was less impactful at the time.

Industrial psychology might be another example of emerging concepts in this early part of the 20^th century. Hugo Munsterberg (1911) cautioned managers to be concerned with “all the questions of the mind … like fatigue, monotony, interest, learning, work satisfaction, and rewards.” The beginnings of personnel as a profession might be seen in some of Munsterberg’s areas of concern; in 1913 his book Psychology and Industrial Efficiency addressed such things as personnel selection and equipment design.

Despite some of the economic and social unrest of the 1920s and 1930s, there was much positive change in organisations. The 1920s saw the rise in multi-divisional firms, the continued interest in the function of the organisation and a growing comfort with mass production, such that it began to define the industrialised world. The shift now was towards the ways in which organisations create productivity beyond the time and motion studies of the early years of the century. Indeed Alfred Chandler developed the thesis of The Visible Hand so that, counter to popular dogma regarding how capitalism functions, administrative structure and managerial coordination replaced Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” (market forces) as the core developmental and structuring impetus of modern business. The rise of Management as an increasingly important concept therefore continued.

As the 1920s came to an end there were clear signs of a shift towards an interest in the way people behaved at work and what influenced that behaviour. The seedling concepts of Industrial Psychology could be seen to be taking root. The Hawthorne experiments of 1927 explored the importance of social cohesion in the group and social collaboration. Elton Mayo concluded that people’s work performance is dependent on both social issues and job content. He suggested a tension between workers’ ‘logic of sentiment’ and managers’ ‘logic of cost and efficiency’ which could lead to conflict within organisations. The decade that followed saw the growth of people-centred approaches.

Towards the end of the 1930s there was growing interest in how management worked and more specifically how managers made a difference within organisations. This important shift was from management as impersonal ie an interest in what management was, to a much more personal focus on managers themselves and who they were or what they did that made a difference. Two major streams of theory began to develop. The first of these (trait theory) attempted to throw light on what was special about managers and leaders and considered leaders as individuals endowed with certain personality traits which constituted their ability to lead. Over the years a large number of studies identified a wide array of traits but despite much effort, it did not seem that the research was evolving towards a common view, and gradually trait theory began to decline in influence. An overview of trait theory by Stogdill in 1948 concluded that traits varied by situation, as did the relative impact of traits and no trait correlated highly with effectiveness by itself. Trait theory can be seen to have evolved from the happy co-incidence of the interest in psychology, the growing science of psychometrics, and the increasing demand for, and importance of, management.

Often thought of as coming after trait theory but in reality emerging only slightly later and running alongside it for a number of years, an obviously contrasting approach emphasising leadership style was also researched and discussed. Some researchers looked instead to what leaders did – how they behaved, especially towards followers. In modern parlance, they shifted attention from leaders to leadership – and this became the dominant way of approaching leadership within organizations in the 1950s and early 1960s. Different patterns of behaviour were grouped together and labelled as styles.

In reality the nascent beginnings of style theories can be seen in the work of Lewin, Lippitt and White, who in 1938 suggested there were three management styles:

• Autocratic (centralises authority, dictates work methods, makes unilateral decisions, limits participation)
• Democratic (involves in decision making, delegates authority, encourages participation, uses feedback to coach, participation results in higher satisfaction, greater decision acceptance). 2 versions: democratic consultative (seeks input), and democratic participative (allows say)
• Laissez faire (offers complete freedom to employees to make decisions and do work, provides materials and answers questions)

Style theory re-emerged from some particularly influential studies when researchers at both Michigan and Ohio universities independently arrived at behaviours that had much in common. The Michigan studies suggested three critical styles of behaviours of effective leaders:

• Task oriented behaviour
• Relationship oriented behaviour
• Participative leadership

The Ohio studies also identified similar critical styles:

• Consideration
• Initiating structure

As a consequence of this early work, various applications of style theory emerged to diagnose and develop people’s style of working. In reality they were all rather similar and focused on four main styles:

• Concern for task – leaders emphasise the achievement of concrete objectives
• Concern for people – leaders emphasise employees’ needs, their development etc
• Directive leadership – leaders take decisions for others
• Participative leadership – leaders share decision-making with others.

The move to style from trait might be seen as a reaction to the failure of trait theories but in reality it predated the evidence base. It might be considered the expression of the underlying tension between the personal and the impersonal, between leaders and managers on the one hand and leadership and management on the other, two different and at this stage, two opposing perspectives.

Enough of the mainstream for a moment; we need to go back in time to make sense of other emerging trends. As we have seen, by the 1940s and 1950s there was considerable interest in management as a unique part of the mix of successful companies. Global pressures also began to fire interest in management; the end of the Second World War had left Germany and Japan defeated nations but in the decades that followed both countries began to prosper economically and in many ways started to gain the economic upper hand. The quality movement in Japan began in 1946 with the U.S. Occupation Force’s mission to revive and restructure Japan’s communications equipment industry. They recommended W. Edwards Deming to provide a seminar in Japan on statistical quality control (SQC). Deming’s 1950 lecture provided the criteria for Japan’s famed Deming Prize. In 1954, Dr. Joseph M. Juran of the United States raised the level of quality management from the factory to the total organization. He stressed the importance of systems thinking that begins with product designs, prototype testing, proper equipment operations, and accurate process feedback. Juran provided the move from SQC to TQC (total quality control) in Japan.

Motivation

The growing interest in TQM might be seen as a minor path alongside the much more heavily trodden interest in psychological conceptions of management, what managers were and how they behaved. And the fact that TQM blossomed in quite another cultural setting may reflect this. Meanwhile on the main route, other trends were brewing in the field of psychology. In the mid 1940s Abraham Maslow devised a hierarchy of needs from physiological needs, ie food, shelter, etc through to self actualisation – being the person you were meant to be. Whilst the theory has received limited empirical support (of several scores of studies which have been conducted a handful provide some measure of support, the remainder are either ambivalent or negative) (Wahba and Bridwell, 1976) it still remains popular. It has been suggested that this continuing popularity may be due to a populist disregard of empirical evidence as being irrelevant, the theory’s intuitive appeal and its practical resonance (Dick, 2001). Maslow saw humans as possessing limitless potential for growth. This belief and its implications for organisations and management were enormously appealing.

It was also a good time for humanist perspectives. The 1960s were a turbulent decade with shifting social trends, and a growing push towards liberalism which chimed well with a growth in interest in employee behaviour and the role of motivation. Herzberg (1968) proposed the Motivation-Hygiene Theory based on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, also known as the two factor theory of job satisfaction. According to his theory, people are influenced by two factors:

• motivator factors which create satisfaction, but have little effect on dissatisfaction.
• hygiene factors which, if absent or inadequate, cause dissatisfaction, but their presence has little effect on long-term satisfaction.

Other influential theories of motivation were also emerging at this time such as Vroom’s (1964) Expectancy theory. Expectancy theory predicts that employees in an organization will be motivated when they believe that:

• putting in more effort will yield better job performance
• better job performance will lead to organizational rewards, such as an increase in salary or benefits
• these predicted organizational rewards are valued by the employee in question.

The sixties might be thought of the decade that encouraged growing liberalism and individualism. The next decade was rather different.

During the 1970s business conditions took a turn for the worse. Oil prices rose dramatically which had severe knock-on effects for the world economy. Total factory productivity slowed in all industrial countries. In the UK and the US inflation rose at the same time as productivity stalled leading to ’stagflation’. Meanwhile on both sides of the Atlantic the political leaders experienced turmoil. In the US Nixon was embroiled in the Vietnam War and then Watergate. In the UK industrial unrest blighted the seventies and political leaders came and went. Overall the seventies were characterised by institutional rigidities, strong trade unions, lax competition policies and a slow down in technological advance. This was not a good time for management and leadership and whilst political leaders in the UK blamed the trade unions for inflationary wage claims, the trade unions blamed management for a poorly run economy and a failure to invest in the future.

By this time both style and trait theory had failed to deliver on their promise. Despite considerable research on traits it seemed that the list just kept growing and it seemed impossible to find a common set that identified the high performing leaders. By the 1970s contingency theory was an obvious successor.

Studies attempted to identify “distinctive characteristics of the setting to which the leader’s success could be attributed” (Hoy and Miskel, 1987). Now leadership needs to be suited to the particular situation – a mix of subordinate, task, and group variables. In reality contingency theory is an evolution of style theory, except now different styles of leadership are appropriate to the demands created by different organisational situations. In Fiedler’s Contingency theory (1967), leadership effectiveness is an interplay between leadership orientation (human relations versus task), leader-member relations (mutual trust and respect), task structure (how much clarity and simplicity is there), and leader-position power.

This interplay of people versus task centeredness was at the heart of other models too, such as Hersey and Blanchard’s (1969) situational leadership model adapted from Blake and Mouton’s Managerial Grid with two dimensions of task and people orientation. The key situational variable is the maturity of followers which determines which of four leadership styles would be most effective. Contingency theory could certainly be seen to have helped shift the debate away from its previous context-free zone but one which could still be criticised on the grounds of over simplicity. Contingency theory was the culmination of a period of theorising that began with an interest in the practice of management as it emerged as critical to economic success, coinciding with emerging psychological perspectives and repeating tensions between the individual and the collective.

The next key step might be the evolution of role models; an emerging focus less on who leaders are, less on how they behave, and rather more on the roles they fulfil, ie what is it good leaders do that makes the difference? The relationship between these emerging models, styles and contingency approaches can be seen. But the key difference is that these role models might be thought of as seeing leadership as a multiplicity of roles and not one style versus another. Leaders were not seen as either people- or task-focused per se, neither were they people- or task-focused in certain circumstances, but they were people and task and team oriented. This suggests a shift away from a psychological perspective, away from behaviour and personality or other attributes towards an emphasis on observation of activity and its goal.

Typical of this approach was the 1970s action-centred leadership model of John Adair (1973) who said an action-centred leader must:

• Direct the task (define, plan, allocate, control quality and rate, check performance and adjust)
• Support the people (attend to problems, praise, reward, recognise and develop)
• Co-ordinate and foster teamwork as a whole (maintain discipline, build team spirit, motivate, create sense of purpose, resource, communicate, develop)

Mintzberg (1973), through observations of what managers do, identified ten key roles: interpersonal – figurehead, leader, liaison/information: monitor, disseminator, spokesperson/decisional: entrepreneur, disturbance handler, resource allocator, negotiator. Belbin (in the late 1970s) identified nine roles and suggested that a role-balanced team perform better than an unbalanced one.

Old habits die hard, however, and the legacies of trait, style and contingency theories were still seen. The competency movement (Boyatzis, 1982) provides a link between emerging thoughts on role with the previous work on trait, style and contingency. Boyatzis saw effective performance as requiring a consistent attainment of three factors: job demands, organisational environment and individual competence. Boyatzis sought to integrate Mintzberg’s model into a concept of ‘individual competence’, defining the characteristics of managers that enabled them to perform successfully in a job. This definition included the dimensions of skills, individual characteristics and what were termed traits and motives. Later Boyatzis went on to identify competence as a dynamic interaction between components of job competency and levels of application.

The rise of leadership

The seventies also saw a debate gather momentum around the nature of leadership. Perhaps the turbulence of the time and the loss of faith in leadership created the desire to define it more clearly, to separate it from management and in so doing act as a philosophical clarion call. It can’t be said that this debate originated from the 1970s as there were many previous references to the distinctions between management and leadership but it certainly gathered pace. In 1977 Zaleznik, writing in the Harvard Business Review, sparked renewed interest in whether they are different. And the debate went on for a long time. Zaleznik used the image of leader as an artist who uses creativity and intuition to navigate chaos whilst a manager is a problem solver dependent on rationality and control. Kotter also commented on the key differences:

Leadership isn’t mystical and mysterious. It has nothing to do with having “charisma” or other exotic personality traits. It is not the province of a chosen few. Nor is leadership necessarily better than management or a replacement for it. Rather, leadership and management are two distinctive and complementary systems of action. Each has its own function and characteristic activities. Both are necessary for success in today’s business environment. Management is about coping with complexity. Its practices and procedures are largely a response to the emergence of large, complex organizations in the twentieth century. Leadership, by contrast, is about coping with change. Part of the reason it has become so important in recent years is that the business world has become more competitive and more volatile. More change always demands more leadership. Most U.S. corporations today are over-managed and under-led.

And Bennis and Nanus 1985 came up with their well-known adage: “Managers are people who do things right and leaders are people who do the right thing”.

In many ways this obsession with leadership might be seen as a response to a loss of leadership, a failure to define what works, and a growing uncertainty in the changing world of Mergers and Acquisitions, deregulation, new technology, international competition, rise of the East, the Common Market, and, in the UK at least, a declining competitive position. It might also be seen as a response to the ‘me’ decade of the 60s – the tension of individualism and common good and an obsession with the short term. Once again we had flipped back to the individual from the collective, back to the personal and consequently, back to the psychological.

With this desire to find the great and good, so leadership increasingly was imbued with the characteristics desired by the times. Leadership was seen to resonate with our own sense of how we would wish to be led and transformational leadership came to the fore. Burns (1978) suggested that leadership needed to align with a collective purpose and the performance of leaders should be judged by their ability to make social change. He coined the concept of transactional and transformational leadership: ‘Leadership is a relationship of mutual stimulation and elevation which converts followers into leaders and may convert leaders into moral agents’. The concept is built on humanistic psychology to assert that transformational leadership alters motives, values and goals of followers whereas a transactional leader looks to exchange one thing for another. The transformational approach dominated the 1980s. Bernard M. Bass (1985) built on Burns’ Model and defined transformational leadership in terms of how the leader affects cfollowers, who are intended to trust, admire and respect the transformational leader, increasing their awareness of task importance and value, getting them to focus first on team or organizational goals, rather than their own interests, and activating their higher-order needs.

Charisma was seen as a necessary, but not sufficient quality of a leader. Two key charismatic effects that transformational leaders achieve are to evoke strong emotions and to cause identification of the followers with the leader. This may be through stirring appeals. It may also occur through quieter methods such as coaching and mentoring.

One of the problems with charisma is that charismatic leadership has been criticised on a number of grounds including possible manipulation and a moral absence. In response Bass has suggested that authentic transformational leadership is grounded in moral foundations that are based on four components:

• Idealized influence
• Inspirational motivation
• Intellectual stimulation
• Individualized consideration

… and three moral aspects:

• The moral character of the leader
• The ethical values embedded in the leader’s vision, articulation, and programme (which followers either embrace or reject)
• The morality of the processes of social ethical choice and action that leaders and followers engage in and collectively pursue.

It might be seen as a small jump from transformational leadership with its emphasis on motivating followers and engaging with them to Daniel Goleman’s (1995), emotional intelligence (EI). He suggested that emotional intelligence had five dimensions:

• Self-awareness
• Managing emotions (especially anger, anxiety and sadness)
• Motivating others
• Showing empathy (ability to read emotions in others)
• Staying connected – emotions are contagious and each interaction has an emotional impact

However, Antonakis (2004) states that the claims made by EI proponents regarding the apparent necessity of EI for leadership or organisational performance are unsubstantiated, exaggerated, misrepresented, or simply false, and that the state of empirical evidence for the relationship between EI and leadership remains weak.

Authentic leadership

Continuing the emphasis on moral leadership, a significant emphasis in recent times has been on the role of individual leaders as authentic moral leaders. According to Gardner and Schermerhorn (2004), the theory of authentic moral leadership derives from Luthans’ work on positive organisational behaviour (POB) and Luthans and Avolio’s work on “authentic leadership”. May, Chan, Hodges and Avolio (2003), for example, describe “authentic leadership” as:

‘We chose the term to focus on what we consider to be the root concept underlying all positive approaches to leadership and its development. It is ultimately about the leader knowing him or her self, and being transparent in linking inner desires, expectations, and values to the way the leader behaves, in each and every interaction. What they say is exactly what they mean. Knowing oneself and being true to oneself are essential qualities of authentic leadership.”

Similarly, Goffee and Jones (2006) argue that leadership demands the expression of an authentic self. People associate authenticity with sincerity, honesty and integrity.

Inevitably the interplay between the personal and the abstract and the individual and the collective would suggest that the focus on charisma would quickly be matched by a balancing concern for the impact of characteristics beyond the individual leader. So where are we now?

Devolved, collective leadership

There have indeed been some significant shifts in our thinking about leadership in more recent times towards the collective. These shifts, it has been argued, arise partly because we may be seeing a fundamental shift in the nature of work and therefore in the nature of leadership required:

‘With the shift to team-based knowledge work comes the need to question traditional models of leadership’ (Pearce, 2004).

Similarly ‘We are seeing traditional and hierarchical modes of leadership yielding to a different way of working – one based on teamwork and community, one that seeks to involve others in decision-making, one strongly based in ethical and caring behaviour. This emerging approach to leadership and service began with Robert Greenleaf with his concept of “servant leadership” (Spears, 2004). Spears suggests that the leader’s role is principally to encourage growth in others and emerges from those whose primary motivation is a deep desire to help others – putting serving others (including employees, customers and community) as the number one priority. Similarly, in several studies, leaders are referred to as ’stewards’ of their organisation, conjuring the dictionary definition of steward as ‘a person morally responsible for the careful use of money, time, talents or other resources’ (Boltz Chapman). It has been suggested that leadership should be judged by the outcomes for others (Lorenzi, 2004).

As a result there has been a focus on devolved leadership. Pearce (2004) argues that high performing teams display more dispersed leadership patterns, ie shared leadership. Tasks that are highly interdependent, those that require creativity, and those that are highly complex call for shared leadership. The literature also suggests that a community of leaders can be developed and will be the key to sustainable performance. Raelin, for instance, develops the concept of “leaderful practice” suggesting that whereas traditionally leadership has been thought of as serial, individual, controlling, and dispassionate, leaderful organisations see leadership as concurrent, collective, collaborative, and compassionate. Raelin argues that leaderful practice inspires genuineness among its community members so that they can bring their whole person to work; a concept with echoes of authentic leadership. This suggests that as leadership devolves so does the need for authenticity.

Ireland and Hitt also argue that we need to move from one to the many, from the ‘Great Leader’ view of Strategic Leadership to the ‘Great Groups’ view as a more appropriate concept of strategic leadership in the 21^st century. Such ideas challenge conventional orthodoxies about leadership. Lorenzi (2004), for instance, argues that leadership theories have generally focused on what people are like (personality or trait-based approaches), what leaders say (charismatic), what leaders do (style-based), and when leaders do it (contingency theories). Less has been studied or written concerning leader’s specific, articulated and accepted aspirations and the social value or valence of these aspirations. More importantly, what and whose results matter more in the analysis – ie the leader’s, the follower’s, the public, or the organisation? For Lorenzi, a good leader places the concerns of followers and customers ahead of the leader’s own interests – the good leader is prosocial.

Prosocial leadership is an evolutionary approach to achieving important social ends drawing on servant leadership, positive organisational behaviour, behavioural management, and organisational social learning and cognition. The leader’s actions attend to the needs of a broader group (“social”) rather than to limited personal interests. Lorenzi argues that “management” has been denigrated in the literature but good management is an essential part of prosocial leadership. For Lorenzi, while actions do speak loudly, results matter most. And the results that matter most are the resultant effects on the leader’s customer, not the leader’s organisation. A prosocial model or approach focuses on the positive outcomes of leadership instead of the positive personality characteristics of leaders and followers.

So where does this leave us with regard to leadership? We have sought to explore if leadership is of its time or if it is a reinvention of fundamental concepts that circle around each other over time. It would seem that it is a bit of both, aligned to its cultural and social context whilst showing signs of circling between the individual and the collective, the personal and the abstract. It would seem that social context provides the catalyst for evolving thinking – the need for efficiency at the beginning of the century, the rising interest in psychology in the 1920s and 1930s, the search for heroes in the 1970s and 1980s and now the interest in devolved leadership. These suggest shifts in emphasis which then ossify into a paradigm within which the dualism of individual and collective perspectives play out. This strongly suggests that we will never absolutely understand what effective leadership is because, as a social concept, it is dependent on its social setting.

So having got not very far with respect to what is leadership and finding it embedded and contextual, what then of the link between leadership and performance? Here we are on firmer ground.

UK managers

Managers are a critically important group of staff when it comes to looking at the link between skills and performance and there is evidence that they are both part of the problem and part of the solution. One of the reasons highlighted for the performance shortfall with the UK is believed to be a function of a skills deficit amongst UK managers. Porter and Ketels (2003) question that the quality of UK management is the most important determinant of economic performance but also goes on to note that UK firms are often slow to adopt modern management practices such as Total Quality Management, and even once they are implemented, they then achieve lower returns than other countries. Such a situation may be explained by a skill deficiency and by the inadequacy of management training. More detailed evidence from other studies reinforces the view that there may be qualitative shortfalls in management skills; for example, some recent surveys on perceptions of management quality have found high levels of dissatisfaction with the quality of leadership within organisations as judged by other managers. Keep and Westwood (2003) use wider business arguments, for example, the low business gains from business process re-engineering programmes and mergers, to argue that there is a lack of managerial skill. They also point out these failures are by no means unique to the UK.

Critical role of managers in organisational performance

Other studies have critically emphasised the important role played by managers in achieving productivity and performance improvements within high performance work systems. The decisions and actions managers take are undoubtedly vital to the nature of working practices in place, the organisational structure and strategies, the degree of innovation and R&D, the organisation and management of the workforce and the mix of skills demanded, and hence the overall success of the business. Studies have shown that firms with a more qualified management workforce and a dedicated programme of management development pursue more sophisticated and higher quality market strategies and achieve greater profits. For example Bosworth (1999) found a positive relationship between the employment of professional scientists and engineers within the company and at board level, and business performance. Other studies have also found a link between the skill levels of senior managers and business performance. Those employing senior managers with degree level qualifications outperformed those who did not (with greatest benefits where the manager possessed an accountancy qualification).

‘The performance gap between the unqualified and qualified is so stark that this factor alone may go a long way to explain the poor performance of British industry when compared with American, French or German industry. The more so when we recall that until 50 years ago few British TEs (Top Executive) had academic qualifications of any kind, whereas French and German TEs have been outstandingly well qualified certainly since the 19th century.’ (Barry, quoted in Bosworth, 1999)

This finding is also supported by Woods (1992) who suggested that organisations managed by Chief Executives with a degree outperform those without, regardless of the degree discipline.

Cockerill (1993) tried to link management capability with organisational performance using a framework of seven competencies and found that six of the selected competencies were positively related to measures of organisation performance. Overall, the competence of a manager explained about 15% of unit performance in dynamic, but not stable, environments.

A growing area of interest is the crucial role of the manager in motivating staff. Rucci et al (1998) analysed data from 800 stores in the Sears retail group in the US. The data covered business information, customer and employee attitudes. Causal pathway modelling was used to unpick the cause and effect relationships linking employee attitudes, customer attitudes and business results. Employee attitudes towards the job and attitudes towards the employer both emerged as key factors associated with customer attitudes and, in turn, with business results. The line manager emerged as a key link in this chain through a critical item ‘how does the way you are treated by those who supervise you influence your overall attitude about your job?’. Barber et al (1999) conducted a similar study with nearly 100 stores of a major UK retailer. The data collected spanned 65,000 employees and 25,000 customers. Employee satisfaction and employee commitment were related to sales increases. There were also more indirect links to sales through improved staff attendance and increased customer loyalty (linked with customer service). The quality of line management as perceived by staff emerged as an important link in this value chain via its impact on employee commitment. Most recently, Purcell et al (2003) and Purcell and Hutchinson (2007) have used an in-depth case study approach to try and shed light on the HRM-performance link in the UK. The case studies in a retail organisation show a strong association between employee attitudes, employee views on the quality of HR management applied to them, and store performance. The study also showed that the number and extent of HR practices was less important than the effectiveness of their implementation. These studies tend to support the view of managers as motivators of staff who, in turn, produce better business results. Further evidence of the quality of relationships at work comes from work on the impact of line managers.

In a cross national study of European managers (Tamkin and Mabey, 2006), relationships were found between management development activity and perceived organisational performance. In particular the study emphasised the importance of strategic fit (the degree to which a strategic stance is taken by HR), organisational fit (the extent to which the organisation takes responsibility, sets criteria and takes a long term view) and perceived congruence (the fit between what organisations promise in terms of management development and managers’ first hand experience of such policies and activities). These relationships were much greater than the links between the amount of development and the diversity of development practices and performance.

Some of the most recent research on management and leadership has focused on the impact of management practice. Bloom et al (2006, 2007) surveyed management practice in over 700 medium sized manufacturing firms in the US, France, Germany and the UK. Their study deliberately attempted to explore productivity differences and the role of the fixed effects of “managerial quality”. They note that whilst considerable attention is placed on management quality by many disciplines, economists have until recently had relatively little to say about management practices per se. A major problem has been the absence of good quality data on managerial practices that is measured in a consistent way across countries and firms. They collected data on firms’ practices from initially 730 medium sized manufacturing firms in the US, UK, France and Germany.

These practices can be grouped into four areas: operations (3 practices), monitoring (5 practices), targets (5 practices) and incentives (5 practices). The operations management section focuses on the introduction of lean manufacturing techniques, the documentation of processes improvements and the rationale behind introductions of improvements. The monitoring section focuses on the tracking of performance of individuals, reviewing performance (eg through regular appraisals and job plans), and consequence management (eg making sure that plans are kept and appropriate sanctions and rewards are in place). The targets section examines the type of targets (whether goals are simply financial or operational or more holistic), the realism of the targets (stretching, unrealistic or non-binding), the transparency of targets (simple or complex) and the range and interconnection of targets (eg whether they are given consistently throughout the organization). Finally, the incentives section includes promotion criteria (eg purely tenure based or including an element linked to individual performance), pay and bonuses, and fixing or firing bad performers, where best practice is deemed the approach that gives strong rewards for those with both ability and effort. Some of the questions focus specifically on the management of human capital and it is these that have greatest similarities with those used in studies on HRM practices.

People Management Practices Measured

Source: Measuring and Explaining Management Practices. Across Firms and Countries. Nick Bloom and John Van Reenen. February 2006

By matching information on management practice with firms accounts, the researchers were able to address the association between managerial practices and firm performance. They found that measures of managerial practice were strongly associated with a range of performance measures (productivity, profitability, sales growth and survival rates). There were also significant differences by country, with US firms tending to demonstrate better management practices than European firms. Poor practices were associated with low levels of competition and primogeniture family firms (where control passes to the eldest son) which accounted for about half of the long tail of badly managed firms and up to two thirds of the American advantage over Europe in management practices. More recent work has expanded the sample to around 4000 organisations in the US, Asia and Europe. Improving management practice was associated with large increases in productivity and output. Controlling for country, sector and skill level, across all the firms in the research, a single point improvement in management practice score was associated with the same increase in output as a 25% increase in the labour force or a 65% increase in invested capital. MNCs tended to do better (and to have a positive influence on other firms in their region) and this second study confirmed the negative impact of family firm ownership on performance.

Human capital also seems to be important. The availability of skilled people, both in management and among the workforce in general, also differentiated between better managed firms and the rest. Comparing top scoring and low scoring firms, 84% of managers in the highest scoring firms were educated to degree level or higher, as were a quarter of the non-management work force compared to only 53% of managers and only 5% of the wider workforce in the lowest scoring firms. Given the positive relationship between good management and performance the long tail of poorly managed firms suggests a lack of awareness by firms. Some insight into this was provided by the finding that self-assessed quality of management had no relationship with the management practice score assigned by the researchers regardless of region or firm performance. This suggests that firms have a poor understanding of how their own practice relates to accepted practice although the authors also conjecture that the positive effect of high levels of competition may suggest good practices spread quickly in competitive environments. They also posit that poor practice is more likely to be eliminated where competition is higher through firm failure.

This wider exploration of the quality of management practices is preceded by a significant literature on the impact of people management practice. In the late 1990s and early 2000s there was considerable research activity attempting to link HR practices to firm performance. The general thrust of such work was to find positive associations between an array of practices (a variable mix) and various measures of firm performance (see, for example, Huselid). And although the quality of the evidence base has been criticised (eg Wall and Wood, 2005) the consistency, breadth and depth of findings is remarkable.

More recent research has moved away from purely seeking to evidence a link towards explaining how the link operates. There have been various strands to this:

• Alignment and fit
• Involvement
• Commitment and climate

Part of the debate around SHRM has been on the ways in which HRM can align itself appropriately. One interpretation is to consider alignment with the various alternative strategic approaches of the firm (for example Miles and Snow’s (1978) focus on prospectors, analysers or defenders, or Porter’s (1980) typology of competitive strategy into cost, differentiation, focus and stuck in the middle strategies). Such alignment of HRM approaches to strategy have been referred to as ‘vertical alignment’. Others have stressed the need for a focus on the ways in which the different HR sub-systems should work together coherently which has been termed ‘horizontal alignment’. Thirdly an emphasis on eliciting the right kinds of behaviours from employees is termed the ‘role behaviour perspective’ proposed by Jackson and Schuler (1987, 1989) which highlights that HR practices need to elicit behaviours that are contextually aligned.

Purcell argues that competitive strategy is too crude an instrument to explain HRM policy and practice. Within-company studies find differences even though strategy is a constant and firms face various markets with various degrees of diversification; therefore it is difficult to understand which should predominate in HR alignment terms.

There has been some support for vertical alignment; eg Michie and Sheehan (2005) explore the link between HRM and performance, deliberately testing universal and contingency models. Using telephone interviews in a sample of 362 organisations, and controlling for establishment size, age, sector (manufacturing versus services), trade union recognition and whether UK or foreign owned, they find positive relationships between HR policies and practices and performance, both individually and when practices were combined into an index in support of a universalistic model. They also find support for a contingent model. For quality enhancer and innovator firms the impact of HRM is significant but not so for cost reducer firms. Datta et al (2003) similarly find some support for greater impact of HRM in low capital intensity and high differentiation firms, but others have found only limited support, eg Paauwe and Boselie (2005). They reference Boxall and Purcell (2003) who argued that both best practice and best fit approaches may be right in their own way. Some practices are universally successful, eg development, involvement, etc, but others may be context dependent. So whilst the concept of vertical fit is compelling, it has not received universal empirical support. This has led to debate about why this might be: too great a focus on HR practices rather than outcomes such as behaviours or skills (Wright, 1998), negative effect of a lack of flexibility caused by tight fit (Allen and Wright, 2006), the realities of complex environments and multiple strategies making HRM fit unlikely, the need for more sophisticated models of fit (Boxall and Purcell, 2003), and ineffective research methods or an inability to spot and measure the correct contingencies (Allen and Wright, 2006).

Bowen and Ostroff (2004) theorised that HRM systems influence employee attitudes and behaviour as well as organisational performance, through employee interpretations of the work climate. They note that employee culture can act as an antecedent to the HRM system and as a mediator of its linkage to firm performance. Culture can be seen as the way in which formal and informal organisational policies practices and procedures are perceived. Gerhart (2005) calls for a new perspective in the field. He refers to the work of Fulmer et al (2003) who used the ‘100 best companies to work for in America’ list to track performance over time. Attitudinal survey data on these organisations provides information on credibility, respect, fairness, pride and camaraderie. Gerhart notes that in this case employee relations are defined by employees’ perceptions, not by the proportion of employees covered by specific HR practices.

Others have explored the mechanisms by which employees’ aims are aligned with those of the organisation. A study by Michie and Sheehan (1999) found the use of participatory practices was positively correlated with the probability of the firm innovating. They suggest that in combination with other human resource practices, employee participation can have a positive impact on outcomes. Recent research found that ‘fair shares capitalism’ was linked to productivity across three different measures – perceptual, sales per employee and value added per employee but that the relationships were complex. Positive links were found between profit related pay and group payment by results schemes with financial performance but only when combined with share ownership. Each individually had negative effects. Generally individual PBR or merit pay or performance pay were not linked. The links were much stronger where employees had greater autonomy in decision making and strongest results where all employees were covered by such FSC schemes, if just the managers were involved; the schemes had no effect on productivity.

The relationship between job satisfaction and performance has been tested in various ways, often at the micro level of individual performance. Harter et al (2002) conducted a meta-analysis of studies conducted by Gallup and found significant correlations between satisfaction and engagement and business outcomes such as productivity and profitability. The size of the relationship was substantial and implied that businesses in the top quartile had on average between $80,000 and $120,000 higher monthly revenue/sales.

The complexity of the relationship between HR practices and performance is attracting increasing interest with employee attitudes and behaviours seen as an intervening variable. Bowen and Ostroff (2004) have suggested that employees’ perceptions of HR practices are likely to precede attitudes and performance. This has been tested by Nishii, Lepak and Schneider (2007) who explored how employee commitment relates to attributions employees make about intent of HR practices. Positive attributions (quality and employee well being) were positively associated with attitudes, whilst negative attributions (around cost reduction and exploitation) were negatively associated with attitudes. Attitudes are in turn associated with citizenship behaviours and with customer satisfaction. Similar findings were found previously in exploring the link between employee attitudes and business performance (eg Barber et al, 1999).

In a study which questioned the normal assumptions regarding the direction of influence, Schneider et al (2003) used time lagged analysis to explore the relationships between financial performance and various measures of satisfaction (empowerment, fulfilment, pay etc plus overall job satisfaction). The researchers found significant and consistent relationships between attitudes around security, pay and job with financial measures but the direction was sometimes unexpected, with overall job satisfaction and satisfaction with security more strongly affected by market and financial performance than was the reverse. Satisfaction with pay appeared to be more reciprocal.

The issue of family ownership and the impact on firm performance has been the subject of a number of studies. Adams et al (2008) refer to a wide range of other work eg they refer to the work of Anderson and Reeb (2003) providing evidence that family firms have higher market valuations and better accounting performance than non-family firms. Other studies they mention (Fahlenbrach, 2006; Palia et al, 2007; Villalonga and Amit, 2006) find positive effects of founder control on performance. Pérez-González, 2002 shows evidence that inherited control by a family member is bad for performance. Morck, Strangeland and Yeung (1998) also find a negative correlation between heir control in Canadian firms and firm performance both studies supporting the findings of the Bloom et al management practice studies. Adams et al themselves find a residual positive correlation between founder-CEO status and firm performance. This finding suggests that there is a positive causal link from founder-CEOs to firm performance and that past superior accounting performance increases the likelihood that founder-CEOs will step out. They show that among all family firms, those with founder-CEOs are the only ones to have consistently higher performance than other firms. These findings raise the possibility that the higher performance of family firms found in some literature is driven mostly by firms where the current CEO is a founder.

The dominant finding of a number of studies is that senior leadership matters because it has an important influence on corporate behaviour and performance. Bertrand and Schoar 2003 explore the impact of managers on firms using a matched manager firm data set, tracking managers across US firms and observing performance over time (1969-1999). This allowed them to estimate how much of the unexplained variation in firm practices can be attributed to manager fixed effects, after controlling for firm-fixed effects and time-varying firm characteristics. They explored four corporate variables: investment policy, financial policy, organisational strategy and performance. Their research suggests that managers’ fixed effects are empirically important determinants of a range of corporate variables. Managers that engage in more external acquisitions and diversification also display lower levels of capital expenditures and R&D. Management style appears to be a consistent variable across firms and time and the timing of observed changes in corporate policy suggests it is the active influence of managers on corporate decisions that is important rather than their more passive association with particular circumstances. They found that older generations of CEOs tended to be more conservative whilst those holding MBA qualifications more aggressive. The results provide evidence that top managers vary considerably in their management styles and impact on company fortunes. The size of the manager fixed effects is economically large – a manager in the top quartile increases the rate of return on assets by about 3% whilst a manager in the bottom quartile reduces the rate of return by about the same amount.

A study comparing productivity levels of US and Japanese car manufacturers (Lieberman et al, 1990) found productivity improvement was strongly positively correlated with top managerial succession. The importance of top level succession has also been commented on by others: Huson, Malatesta and Parrino (2004), for example, report that measures of performance relative to other firms deteriorate prior to turnover, and improve subsequently. Relative performance improvements are greater when successor CEOs are hired from outside the firm than when they are insiders.

These findings are supported by other research which suggests that individual managers are economically significant. Chevalier and Ellison (1999), in a US study explored the relationship between fund performance and manager characteristics in a cross sectional analysis. They find that better performance is associated with those fund managers with MBAs, who are younger, and those who attended better performing colleges. Malmendier and Tate (2005) find financial investment is significantly more responsive to cash flow if the CEO displays overconfidence. CEOs with a finance background, however, invest more on average, and are less sensitive to cash flow in choosing the level of investment. Bebchuk, Cremers and Peyer (2008), show that CEO centrality (measured by the proportion of pay commanded by the CEO) is not necessarily a good thing and is correlated with relatively poor organisational performance. In an attempt to measure the size of the impact CEOs can have on company performance Wasserman, Nohria and Anand (2001) suggest that, in some circumstances (where opportunities are scarce or the leader has slack resources), the leader accounts for up to 40% of the difference in organisational performance.

The impact of management education and learning

If leadership makes a difference and leadership quality is something that is an acquired skill that can be developed, we might also expect that management education and development is associated with better performing managers and organisational performance.

The evidence is light and what there is somewhat mixed. On the one hand there has been much made of the relative under-education of UK managers and the possible link to lower levels of UK management capability. We have already mentioned the work of Bosworth (Bosworth, D., 1999) and Woods (Woods, W.J., 1992) who both suggested that more highly qualified managers were associated with better performing firms, and the work on management practices which also found a link between the human capital of managers and performance. Other positive evidence comes from Mabey and Gooderham (2005) who suggested that the strategic and organisational fit of management development is related to organisational performance measures. A review of the literature on the impact of management development activity found relatively few studies which had specifically sought to measure impact on organisations – see box below:

Management development and organisational performance

• A management-training programme provided by British Telecom was claimed to have saved the company £270 million. This figure was an estimate made by managers of the value of errors made by untrained junior managers, and waste caused by missed deadlines, customer complaints, etc. Performance improvements were examined following each training course (Lee, Coaley and Beard, 1993).
• Winterton and Winterton (1996), in an in-depth analysis of 16 UK organisations, looked at the impact of competence-based management development activity on performance. They found a statistically significant relationship between competence-based HRD systems and business performance, especially where the management development activity was linked to business strategy. Although a frequently quoted example, this was a comparatively small-scale study.
• DTZ (1998) examined 127 firms that were using TEC (Training and Enterprise Council) related management development activity. 63% of firms could identify an impact of this development on business performance. The types of impact most often mentioned by respondents were: improved morale of staff, an improved response and greater flexibility shown by managers, and improvements in quality, leading in turn to greater customer loyalty or new business. Indirect impacts were identified to be: an improved management style, better tracking of projects and evaluation of their worth to the firm, and greater understanding of the value of training and human resource development in general. Only 18% of firms felt they could identify ‘definite and direct’ business impact, and fewer than 9% could quantify this impact. Of the 11 firms that felt able to provide a monetary estimate of the impact of training, nine were involved in the Investors in People process.
• Fox and McLeay (1991) examined the recruitment and selection, management development, performance appraisal, rewards and recognition, and career planning processes of 49 UK companies operating in the engineering and electronics sectors. The team were careful to distinguish intent (HRM systems), practice (the reality of how staff are recruited, promoted, rewarded and developed) and the internal coherence of such activities. They found a clear positive relationship between financial performance and the degree of integration between corporate strategy and the human resource management functions in practice. So it was the implementation of HR that was the important variable, rather than the supposed systems.
• In a UK study of management training which secured the views of both HRD managers and MBA managers participating in training activities (Mabey and Thomson, 2000), it was found that positive outcomes of management development investment, whether measured by perceived success in achieving objectives, perceived organisational impact or personal satisfaction, could largely be attributed to the way an organisation made its policy choices concerning the setting up and running of management training and development processes. Particularly important in this regard was the commitment given by the company to training activity. Policy statements, high priority, centralised management development systems, and responsibility for management development emerged as the key elements of this visible corporate commitment.
• Thompson (2000) found that company performance in over 600 aerospace establishments was not related at all to total management development spend, but high performing firms spent more of their management development budget on people management skills (27% of spend) than low performing firms (9% of their spend).
• Mabey and Ramirez (2003) have led an EC funded research project analyzing management development in six European countries. Interviews were conducted with the HRD manager and a line manager in 600 private sector organisations. Findings indicate that 25% of variance in organisational performance is explained by three factors: a strategic approach to HRM, a long-term, proactive and strategic approach to management development and, on the part of line managers, a belief that their employer takes management development seriously. These results hold true, irrespective of country, size, sector and growth. Interestingly, neither the presence of management development systems/procedures, nor the amount and diversity of management training activities enhance performance to a significant effect (Mabey and Gooderham, 2003). This study used a seven-item measure of performance, benchmarked by sector, a mean score of that reported by HRD and line managers. A further analysis on a sub sample of 180 companies where financial data was available (from the Amadeus database) discovered that where line managers reported positively on their employer’s management development strategy, this explained a modest but significant amount of variance (15%) in firm productivity.

Leadership development and organisational performance

• Barling et al (1996) conducted a study on the effects of transformational leadership training in one region of a large Canadian bank. The study was small but noteworthy for its stringent design. This took pre- and post-training ratings and compared those receiving training (one day, plus four booster sessions at monthly intervals) with a matched sample of managers who did not. Significantly positive impacts were found for those participating in the training when measured by subordinate perceptions of their leadership, subordinate ratings of their own organisational commitment and two aspects of branch level financial performance.

• In a study of the state of leadership in UK organisations, Horne and Stedman Jones (2001) concluded that where systematic implementation of leadership development did exist, this related strongly to the perceived quality of leadership in that organisation and organisational performance. The latter was measured by self-reported estimation of financial turnover during the past three years. The leadership development methods perceived as most effective were found to be formal mentoring, project management and 360 degree feedback.

Hirsh, Williams and Burgoyne (2002) assemble evidence on the value of business and management education to individuals and employers. They refer to the IER/Purcell large cohort studies of UK graduates (Purcell et al, 1996 and 1999; IER, 1999) in all subjects which show that, on the whole, business studies graduates have relatively high levels of employment compared to other disciplines and average earnings. Given the relatively lower level of average entry qualifications of the overall undergraduate intake into business schools, these suggest good results. Business Studies had a ’significant earnings premium’ compared with other subjects after taking entry qualifications into account. This was also the case for degrees in mathematics, computing, engineering and medicine (IER, 1999). The smaller scale but more recent CEL surveys of graduates (2002) suggest slightly less beneficial results with average employment rates, slightly less likelihood of being in a traditional graduate job after three years but slightly more likely to be in a supervisory role. Both in the short and longer term, management studies graduates earned similar salaries to the sample overall. For all the employment outcomes, those with poorer entry qualifications do much less well, and this gap widens over the three year period. Management studies students in this sample had significantly weaker entry qualifications than the overall sample.

Hirsh et al note mixed findings with regard to the benefits of MBA qualifications. AMBA surveys (eg Thomson et al, 1998; AMBA, 2000) show positive career benefits of MBA study, although the pay benefit varies according to institution and mode of study. This finding is supported by others eg Baruch and Peiperl (2000) found that only those who had attended a ‘top’ Business School had higher salaries.

More recent commentary has been relatively negative over the impact of MBA level education, suggesting that it is ineffectual at developing senior leaders. This critique of the MBA has a long history – it was in 1989 that Harold Leavitt asserted ‘we have built a weird almost unimaginable design for MBA level education … [that distorts those subjected to it into] … critters with lopsided brains, icy hearts and shrunken souls’. Other critics have included Mintzberg and Gosling. Pfeffer and Fong (2002) note that there is limited evidence that MBA graduates perform better than their non-MBA peers. They suggest that this may be in part a function of the almost zero failure rate, a lack of emphasis on leadership capability, failure to teach what is currently important, and too little learning by doing. Recent high profile company failures such as Enron and financial institutions have also served to focus attention on the value of MBAs given the high proportion of graduates in affected organisations.

Overall these findings strongly suggest that managers and leaders matter. Individually and collectively, they affect performance. There is growing evidence that the way in which operations, organisational performance, quality, etc are overviewed and what action is taken as a result makes a difference to the efficiency and effectiveness of the organisation. There is also a wealth of evidence that suggests how managers and leaders manage the human capital of the organisation has considerable impact. A coherent set of people management practices, consistently applied, and an employee relations climate that favours autonomy, which recognises contribution, and which also generates trust are related to organisational performance. However, our empirical understanding of how managers and leaders exert impact within organisations is much less clear. We have evidence that their behaviour makes a difference but what that means for management and leadership development, what it means for the skills of managers and leaders, what differentiates an effective from a less effective leader is much less certain. It might also be said that attempts to explore what management and leadership is have consistently shown that what we do know is heavily coloured by our social context and proves elusive to clear scrutiny.

This suggests particular challenges for education in the development of managers. There is evidence that managerial or leadership capabilities are enhanced by degree level education and yet, that which is focused on managers – business degrees and the MBA, may not have as much impact as we might like. There is also evidence that the brightest do not choose business degrees as their first choice. Leadership and management capabilities clearly are more than the sum of the parts that mode one knowledge provides. What is valued would seem to be the meta skills of analysis, of appraisal and judgement. The social nature of leadership would seem to favour methods of education that emphasise team working and team outcomes, that explore failure and the lessons that can be learnt, as well as successes. Should education aspire to ‘teach’ leadership or to provide the opportunity for leadership skills to be enhanced and developed?

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

Bennis^{, W. and Nanus B (1985) Leaders: The Strategies for Taking charge. New York, Harper and Row ),}

Abbott^{, A.D (2001) Chaos of Disciplines. University of Chicago Press}

Bragues^{, G, (2007) Socrates on Management: An Analysis of Xenophon’s Oeconomicus. Social Science Research Network, Working paper Series, June}

Smith^{, A. (1776) An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. London, Methuen and Co., Ltd., ed. Edwin Cannan, 1904. Fifth edition}

Taylor, ^{F.W. (1911) The Principles of Scientific Management, New York, Harper Bros}

Weber, ^{M. (1968) Economy and Society. Edited by Roth, G. and Wittich, C. New York}

Cox^{, J. (1998) An Introduction to Marx’s Theory Of Alienation, Issue 79 of INTERNATIONAL SOCIALISM. Quarterly journal of the Socialist Workers Party (Britain) Published July 1998 Copyright © International Socialism,}

F. W. Taylor published “The Principles of Scientific Management” in the USA in 1911^{. See for eg Tillet, A., Kempner, T. and Wills, G. (1970) Management Thinkers. Penguin,}

Fayol, H. (1949) General and Industrial Management^{. London, Sir Isaac Pitman & Sons.}

See for example ^{Tonn, J.C. Mary P. Follett: Creating Democracy, Transforming Management. Yale University Press.}

Fry^{, B.R. and Thomas, L.L. (1996) Mary Parker Follett: assessing the contribution and impact of her writings. Journal of Management History, 2 (2), 1996}

Munsterberg, H. (1913) Psychology and Industrial Efficiency. Boston ^{and New York, Houghton Mifflin Company.}

Chandler, ^{A.D. Jr. (1977) The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business. Cambridge, MA,: Harvard Belknap}

Mayo^{, E. (1949) Hawthorne and the Western Electric Company, The Social Problems of an Industrial Civilisation. WHERE, Routledge.}

Mayo^{, E. (1933) The Human Problems of an Industrial Civilization. London Macmillan.}

Stogdill^{, R.M. (1948) Personal factors associated with leadership: Survey of literature. The Journal of Psychology, 25}

^{Rust, J.R. and Golombok, S (1999) Modern Psychometrics: The Science of Psychological Assessment. WHERE, Routledge}

Lewin, K., Lippitt, R. ^{and White, R.K. (1939) Patterns of aggressive behavior in experimentally} created social climates. Journal of Social Psychology, 10, ^pp.271-301.

Likert^{, R (1961) New Patterns of management. New York, McGraw Hill}

Fleischman^{, E., Harris, E. and Burtt, H. (1955) Leadership and Supervision in Industry. Bureau of Educational Research, Ohio University.}

http://deming.eng.clemson.edu/den/deming_1950.htm

Butman^{, J. (1997) Juran: A Lifetime of Influence. WHERE, John Wiley and Sons}

Maslow, A.H. A Theory of Human Motivation^{. Psychological Review, 50 (1943), pp.370-96; Maslow, A. (1954) Motivation and Personality. New York, Harper}

Wahba, M.A. and Bridwell, L^{.G. (1976) Maslow reconsidered: a review of research on the need hierarchy theory. Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance, 15, pp.212-240.}

Dick^{, B. (2001) Maslow Revi(it)ed. Available from http://uqconnect.net/~zzbdick/dlitt/DLitt_P02masrev.pdf}

Herzberg^{, F. (2008) One More Time: How do You Motivate Employees. Harvard Business Review Classics, Harvard Business School Press}

^{. New York, John Wiley and Sons}

Hoy, W.K. a^{nd Miskel, C.G. (1987) Educational administration: Theory, research, and practice. 3rd edition. New York, Random House.}

Fiedler, F.E. (1967) A Theory of Leadership Effectiveness, New York: McGraw-Hill.

Hersey, P. and Blanchard. ^{P. (1969) The life cycle theory of leadership. Training and Development Journal, 23 (5)}

Blake, R. a^{nd Mouton, J. (1964) The Managerial Grid: The Key to Leadership Excellence. Houston, Gulf Publishing Co.}

Adair^{, J. (1973) Action Centred Leadership. New York, McGraw-Hill}

Mintzberg^{, H. (1973) The Nature of Managerial Work New York, Harper & Row}

Belbin, M. (1981) Management Teams. London^{, Heinemann}

Boyatzis^{, R.E. (1982) The Competent Manager: A Model for Effective Performance., John Wiley and Sons}

Zaleznik^{, A. (1977) Managers and leaders: Are they different? Harvard Business Review, May-June}

Kotter^{, J.P. John P Kotter On what Leaders Really do. Harvard Business Review}

Bennis, W. a^{nd Nanus, B. (1985) Leaders: The strategies for taking charge. New York, Harper & Row.}

Burns, J.M. (1978) Leadership. New York^{, Harper & Row}

Bass^{, B.M. (1985). Leadership and Performance Beyond Expectations. Free Press}

See for e^{xample Yukl, G, An evaluative Essay on Current Conceptions of Effective Leadership. European Journal of Work and Organisational Psychology, 8 (1)}

Goleman, D. (1995) Emotional intelligence. New York^{, Bantam Books}

Antonakis^{, J. (2004) On why “Emotional Intelligence” Will Not Predict leadership Intelligence Beyond IQ or the “Big Five”: An Extension and Rejoinder, Organizational Analysis, 12 (2), pp.171-182.}

Gardner, ^{W.L. and Schermerhorn, J.R. Jr. (2004) Unleashing Individual Potential: Performance Gains through Positive Organizational Behaviour and Authentic Leadership, Organizational Dynamics, 33 (3), pp. 270-281.}

Luthans, F. (2002a) Positive organizational behavior: Developing and managing psychological strengths. Academy of Management Executive, 16 ^{(1), pp.57-72. Luthans, F. (2002b) The need for and meaning of positive organizational behavior. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 23, pp.695-706. Luthans, F. and Youssef, C.M. (2007a) Emerging positive organizational behavior. Journal of Management, 33, pp.321-349..}

Avolio^{, B.J. and Kahai, S.S. (2003) Adding the E to e-leadership: How it may Impact Your Leadership. Organizational Dynamics, 31 (4), pp.325-338. Avolio, B.J. and Luthans, F. (2006) High impact leader: Moments matter in authentic leadership development. New York, McGraw-Hill.}

May et ^{al. (2003) Developing the Moral Component of Authentic Leadership. Organizational Dynamics, 32 (3), pp.247-260.}

Goffee, ^{R.and Jones, G. (2005) Managing Authenticity, The Paradox of Great Leadership. Harvard Business Review, December}

. Pearce C L^{. (2004) The Future of Leadership: Combining Vertical and Share Leadership to Transform Knowledge Work. Academy of Management Executive, 19 (1).}

Spears, ^{L.C. (2004) Practicing Servant-Leadership. Leader to Leader, Fall}

Chapman, ^{M.B. (2006) Higher Calling, Will Stewardship to your company bring better returns? Editorial in Chain Leader, January.}

Lorenzi, ^{P. (2004) Managing for the Good: Proscial Leadership. Organizational Dynamics, 33 (3), pp.282-291.}

Pearce, C.L. (2004) The future of leadership: combining vertical and shared leadership to transform knowledge work^{. Academy of Management Executive, 18}

Raelin, ^{J.A. (2005) We the Leaders: In Order to form a Leaderful Organization. Journal of Leadership and Organizational Studies, 12 (2)}

Ireland^{, D.R. and Hitt, M.A. (1999) Achieving and Maintaining Strategic Competitiveness in the 21st century: The Role of authentic Leadership. Academy of Management Executive, 13.}

Porter^{, M.E. and Ketels, C.H.M (2003) UK Competitiveness: Moving to the Next Stage. DTI economics, paper No. 3}

Horne^{, M. and Stedman Jones, D. (2001) Leadership the Challenge for All? The Institute of Management. Charlesworth, K., Cook, P. and Crozier, G. (2003) Leading Changing in the Public Sector: Making the Difference. Chartered Management Institute}

Keep^{, E. and Westwood, A. (2003) Can the UK Learn to Manage? The Work Foundation.}

Bosworth^{, D. (1999) Empirical Evidence of Management Skills in the UK Skills Task Force Research Paper 18, DfEE}

Woods^{, W.J. (1992) Who is Running British Manufacturing? Industrial Management and Data Systems, 92}

Cockerill^{, A.P. (1993) Validation Study into the High Performance Managerial Competencies. London Business School}

Rucci^{, A.J.,Kirm, S. P. and Quinn, R.T. (1998) op.cit.}

^{Barber, L., Hayday, S. and Bevan, S. (1999) op.cit.}

Purcell, J., Kinnie, N., Hutchinson, S., Rayton, B. ^{and Swart, J. (2003) Understanding the People and Performance Link: Unlocking the Black Box London, CIPD}

Purcell and Hutchinson (2007) Front line managers as agents in the HRM-performance causal chain: theory, analysis and evidence^{. Human Resources Journal, 17 (1)}

Tamkin^{, P., Mabey, C.and Beech, D. (2006) The Comparative Capability of UK Managers. SSDA Research Report 17}

^{http://cep.lse.ac.uk/textonly/people/bloom/papers/BloomVanReenen2.pdf}

Bloom^{, N. and Van Reenen, J. (2006) Measuring and Explaining Management Practices, Across Firms and Countries. CEP Discussion Paper No 716, March}

Bloom^{, N., Dorgan, S., Dowdy, J. and Van Reenen, J. (2007) Management Practice & Productivity: Why they matter.}

http://www.markhuselid.com/pdfs/articles/2003_SHRM_Empirical_Studies_Summary_95-03.pdf

Wall^{, T.D. and Wood, S .J. (2005) The Romance of HRM and Business Performance, and the Case for Big Science. Sheffield, Institute of Work Psychology}

See for example Allen^{, M.R. and Wright, P.M. (2006) Strategic Management and HRM, Cornell university Working Paper Series, 06-04}

Schuler, R.S. ^{and Jackson, S.E. (1987) Linking competitive strategy with human resource management practices. In: Academy of Management Executive, 3, pp.207-219. Schuler, R.S and Jackson, S.E (1989) Determinants of human resource priorities and implications for industrial relations. Journal of Management, 15}

^{Purcell, J. (2005) Business strategies and human resource management: uneasy bedfellows or strategic partners. Working Paper Series, University of Bath}

Michie, J. ^{and Sheehan, M. (2005) Business strategy, human resources, labour market flexibility and competitive advantage. International Journal of Human}

Datta^{, D.K., Guthrie, J.P. and Wright, P.M. (2003) HRM and Firm Productivity: does Industry Matter? Working Paper 03-02 Centre for Advanced Human Resources Studies, Cornell University}

[78] Paauwe J, Bosalie P (2005)HRM and Performance: What next? , Human Resource Management Journal, Vol 15, Issue 4

Wright^{, P.M. (1998) Strategy – HR Fit: Does It Really Matter? Human Resource Planning, 21,}

Allen, M.R. a^{nd Wright, P.M. (2006) Strategic management and HRM (CAHRS Working Paper #06-04). Ithaca, New York: Cornell University, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Center for Advanced Human Resource Studies. http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cahrswp/404/}

Boxall, P. and Purcell, J. (2003) Strategy and Human Resource Management, London, Palgrave Macmillan

Bowen^{, D.E. and Ostroff, C. (2004) Understanding HRM – Firm Performance Linkages: The Role of the ‘Strength’ of the HRM System. Academy of Management Review, 29}

Michie, J. and Sheehan, M. (1999). HRM Practices, R&D Expenditure and Innovative Investment: Evidence from the UK’s 1990 Workplace Industrial Relations Survey^{. Industrial and Corporate Change, 8}

Freeman^{, R. (2007) Doing the right thing: does fair share capitalism improve workplace performance, Bryson A, INCOMPLETE REFERENCE or running into next one. Please check}

Nishii^{, L.H. Lepak, D.P. and Schneider, B. (2007) Employee Attitudes of the ‘Why’ of HR Practices: Their Effects on Employee Attitudes and Behaviours, and Customer Satisfaction, ILR Collection, Working Papers}

Barber, L, Hayday, S^{. and Bevan, S (1999) From people to profits. Institute for Employment Studies Report. Brighton, Institute for Employment Studies}

Schneider^{, B., Hanges, P.J., Brent Smith, D. and Salvaggio, A.N. (2003) Which Comes First: Employee Attitudes or Organizational Financial and Market Performance? Journal of Applied Psychology}

Adams^{, R.B., Almeida, H. and Ferreira, D. (2008}) Understanding the Relationship Between Founder CEOs and Firm Performance ^{www.mbs.ac.uk/research/analysisinvestment/documents/founderceofeb2008.pdf}

Pérez-González, F. ^{(2006) Inherited Control and Firm Performance. American Economic Review, 96}

Morck, R., Strangeland, ^{D.and Yeung, B. (1998) Inherited Wealth, Corporate Control and Economic Growth: a Canadian Disease? NBER Working paper, no. 6814.}

Bertrand, ^{M. and Schoar, A. (2003) Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies. Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press}

Lieberman^{, M.B., Lau, L.J. and Williams, M.D. (1990) Firm-Level Productivity and Management Influence: A Comparison of US and Japanese Automobile Producers. Management Science, 36 (10)}

Huson^{, M., Malatesta, P. and Parrino, R. (2004) Managerial Succession and Firm Performance. Journal of Financial Economics , 74}

Chevalier^{, J. and Ellison, G. (1999) Are Some Mutual Fund Managers Better Than Others? Cross-Sectional Patterns in Behaviour and Performance, The Journal of Finance, LIV (3)}

Bebchuk^{, L.A., Cremers, M. and Peyer, U (2008) CEO centrality. Harvard Law and Economics Paper, No 601}

Wasserman, N., Nohria, N. ^{and Anand, B.N. (2001) When does leadership matter? The contingent opportunities view of CEO leadership. Strategy Unit Working Paper No 02-04, Harvard Business School Working Paper No 01-063}

^{Mabey, C. and Gooderham, P.N. (2005) The impact of management development on perceptions of organizational performance in European firms. European Management Review, 2 (2)}

^{Burgoyne, J., Hirsh, W. and Williams, S. (2004) The Development of Management and Leadership}

^{Capability and its Contribution to Performance: The evidence, the prospects and the research need. DfES Research Report 560, London DfES}

^{Pfeffer, J. and Fong, C.T. (2002) The success of Business Schools: Less Success than Meets the Eye. Academy of Management learning and Education, 1 (1)}

^{Mintzberg, H. and Gosling, R. (2002) Reality Programming for MBAs. Strategy and Business, 26 (1)}

^{Caulkin, S. (2006) Enron: A Master Class in Hubris and Raging Greed The Observor Sunday May 7th; Professor Ken Starkey (2008) Lessons to be Learned from Financial Markets Chaos. The Guardian, Saturday October 18th}

While most jobs require occupation-specific skills to do them, a generic skill is something that is needed in a range of jobs. How to do word-processing would be a technical example, but many interactive skills involving communication are common to a range of jobs. Physical strength is another skill or attribute that is needed to do a wide range of jobs, usually the manual ones. In higher-level jobs, one expects to find that occupation-specific skills are in some sense the most crucial. For example, a doctor is expected to be equipped with the appropriate medical knowledge and expertise. Nevertheless, nowadays it is not considered enough for doctors to stand back and prescribe for objectified patients: rather, they must explain their ideas and listen closely to what patients have to say. These “explaining skills” and “listening skills” are not, in principle, different from what has to be deployed to varying extents in many other jobs. In lower-level jobs, the generic skills may be relatively more important, in that a job might not require so much formal training to acquire technical expertise, but still need, for example, good communication skills.

Generic skills might in some cases be something that most people either lack or possess, arising from their lives in general. For example, a worker might have physical skills or the ability to listen well to others, without ever having been taught them. However, even doctors are now trained to have communication skills, and we know from case studies that companies put on specific training programmes. These might be training in the use of computers in some way, for example, the use of particular software, but they can also be for communication and other generic skills. To take one example, Ashton and Sung (2002) report that substantial resources are spent on staff development in the Laiki Bank in Cyprus, and a training programme is designed to inculcate customer service skills, communication skills, service skills, negotiation skills, sales skills, and so on. These are activities which, while highly productive for the bank, could be found in many other jobs in any country, and not just in the banking industry. According to Ashton and Sung, generic skills use and relevant training programmes are often found in “high-involvement” organisations, that is, organisations which set in train a raft of practices designed to maximise employee involvement in the objectives of the organisation.

I return below to the role of employee involvement as a potential driving force in increasing the use of generic skills across the economy. While such studies of individual workplaces or sectors have often hinted that generic skills have become more important in recent decades, it is only in the past few years that quantitative research has shown that the growth of generic skills use is pervasive across much of modern industry.

We know this from surveys of what workers actually do in their jobs. In the three UK Skills Surveys (1997, 2001 and 2006) the job requirements approach was used to frame questions about the tasks involved in respondents’ work (Felstead et al, 2007). The use of computers – their importance in the job, and the level of complexity – is perhaps the most obvious example. Workers were also asked about the importance of ‘making speeches or presentations’ (an aspect of communication skills), the use of physical strength or stamina, the importance of planning activities and many other work tasks. The responses were scored and then averaged in groups to give indicators of generic skills in several domains. These domains are influence skills, literacy, self-planning, numeracy, physical skills, checking skills, problem-solving and external communication skills. The constituent activities included in each domain are listed in Table 1 below.

3. The Growth in the Use of Generic Skills

Figure 1 Changes in the Use of Generic Skills, 1997-2006.

Source: Skill Surveys, 1997 and 2006.

Each skills index ranges from 0 to 1.

Figure 1 shows how generic skills (other than computing skills) have grown in use between 1997 and 2006. As can be seen, the skills that appear to have risen the most are influence skills, literacy and self-planning. The first two of these are aspects of communication skills, while influence skills can also be categorised under interactive skills. Thus we can see that the quantitative evidence confirms the earlier unsystematic reports of case studies about the increased importance of such skills. Meanwhile, there have been much more moderate increases in numeracy skills use and in external communication skills, even smaller rises in checking skills, and no statistically significant changes at all in the use of physical skills or of problem-solving skills. This last finding – unchanging use of problem-solving skills – is somewhat surprising in the light of the case studies literature. I return to this apparent puzzle later.

Table 1 The Growth of Generic Tasks

The last row of Table 1 shows also that computing skills have been rising particularly fast: the proportion of employees for whom computers are essential to their jobs has risen by 16.3 percentage points. We do not have a separate scale for computing skills. However, further analysis not shown in the table implies that the level of usage of computing skills has also been increasing. The proportion using computers to perform complex or advanced tasks (examples ranging from use of statistical packages to advanced programming) rose from 16.3% in 1997 to 22.6% in 2006.

The rising use of literacy skills bears closer examination: does this increase come at the top end with rising proportions of employees in literate jobs requiring extensive writing and reading at high levels of accomplishment? Or does the increase come at the bottom end, from a decline in the number of jobs that can be done without any basic reading or writing?

Figure 2 High and Low Literacy Usage

Source: Skill Surveys, 1997 and 2006.

Figure 2 divides the literacy scale into three levels. It can be seen that both tendencies are in play. Jobs in Britain are being literacy up-skilled at either end of the spectrum – suggesting that basic literacy policies are needed but that there is also an ongoing workplace need for improving the supply of workers capable of relatively high levels of literacy.

A look at the specific activities contained in the literacy index confirms the same story. Table 1 lists all the activities involved in each domain, and displays the extent to which their importance has changed over the period 1997 to 2006. It can be seen that for both basic and advanced activities there are increases in the percentage of workers for whom the task is an essential part of the job.

Figure 3 High and Low Numeracy Usage

Source: Skill Surveys, 1997 and 2006.

Figure 3 shows the same analyses in respect of the use of numeracy skills. Altogether, numeracy requirements rose much more slowly over the period, and this is reflected in the fact that none of the constituent activities changed very much. One can see from Figure 3 that numeracy requirements changed very modestly over the decade at both ends of the spectrum.

4. Explaining the Changing Use of Generic Skills.

The increased demand for generic skills is very broadly consistent with the theory of skill-biased technological change. This is the idea that prevailing new technologies have tended to complement (and hence lead to rising demand for) high-skilled labour, while reducing the demand for low-skilled labour. Sometimes the argument is framed as a requirement of the ‘knowledge economy’, where high-skills-related knowledge advantages are at the heart of generating a competitive edge.

Nevertheless, as has been seen there is quite a range of generic skills, and not all generic skills are increasing in their use. Looking at Figure 1, one plain observation is that the rise of the cognitive element implicit in literacy and in influence skills seems consistent with the theory of rising demand for educated labour. However, not all these elements are merely cognitive. The rising use of interactive skills, especially the influence skills, calls for some explanation.

In recent years researchers have formed a more nuanced account of the factors leading to changing skills demand (Autor et al, 2003). A careful consideration of what kinds of tasks are likely to be affected by automation leads to the hypothesis that it is mainly routine tasks that can be replaced by a software programme. Routine tasks can be manual, such as painting a new car, or non-manual, such as adding up the cost of a shopping basket. Both examples are tasks that are rarely performed by humans nowadays in modern economies because they have been able to be replaced by robots in factories or computerised cash tills in supermarkets. By contrast, non-routine tasks cannot be replaced since they require flexible judgements or physical actions in response to eventualities that are hard to foresee; only humans can perform these actions. There are, as yet, no robot lorry drivers on our motorways, no robot carers in our care homes, and no companies managed by digital CEOs.

Computers and automation thus replace routine tasks but not non-routine tasks. At the same time, they may also expand the use of certain non-routine tasks with which the technologies are complementary. To make effective use of the new technology, new operations have to be created, networks to be formed, and functions and jobs may need to be re-organised (Bresnahan et al, 2002). A raft of higher-level cognitive and interactive skills seems to be required to carry out these tasks. Analytical skills come into play in deciding the most effective and strategic ways of deploying the new possibilities that computers offer. Communication skills of a higher order are then needed to bring about the changes and to operate in the more fluid and innovative environment, in which new ideas are required to be generated, absorbed and transmitted. Often the cognitive and interactive skills, though in principle separate, are combined in the same tasks, such as when a team worker makes a presentation to clients or colleagues. These kinds of skills usually need higher levels of education, and it is for this reason that the impact of the computer revolution is thought to be an important factor behind the rising demand for highly educated workers in modern economies.

Note, however, that the rising use of computers does not predict a falling demand for lower-level skills if they involve non-routine activities. Thus, there may be a tendency in some countries for there to be rising numbers of workers doing such jobs, even at the same time as there are increasing numbers of highly educated workers carrying out the tasks requiring high cognitive and interactive skills. This process is described as a polarisation of labour markets, because it means that the proportion of jobs with both high and low level skills is increasing, while the proportion of jobs in the middle is declining (Goos and Manning, 2006). This process has been detected in Britain (up to the end of the 1990s), the United States, and, in recent years, in France and the Netherlands. However, it is not found in most other countries in continental Europe, and the recent picture in Britain is also more complex (Fernández-Macías and Hurley, 2008). This mixed picture arises because technology is by no means the only force that is driving the structure of jobs in our modern economy.

One additional factor that helps to explain the rising demand for communication skills is organisational change. To a certain extent, managers have been changing their work organisations in response to the changes in technology made possible by computers. However, independently, managers have been drawing on new ideas about ways to get the most out their workers, especially given the declining presence of trades unions. One of these ideas is described by the catch-all phrase “employee involvement”. Broadly, this means the attempt to induce employees to become more committed to the organisation’s objectives. This process could simply operate through improved incentives, for example by linking performance to pay in some way. However, there are limits to which this can be done for many workers, and the alternative favoured by many employers and management theorists is to seek the emotional commitment of workers, so that they identify more with the firm’s values and vision, and are prepared to work harder for it, in particular to contribute ideas for productive improvements, and to stay with the firm longer than otherwise. This movement for “high-involvement management practices” has been going on for at least 20 years, and involves a raft of policies and strategies, including, among other things, the use of quality improvement circles, good communication between management and employees, via regular informative and/or consultative meetings, suggestion schemes, worker surveys and so on, use of a formal appraisal scheme, and teamworking. Alongside these organisation policies one would often expect workers to be granted greater autonomy in their jobs in a high-involvement firm. These new organisational practices, as well as the new technology, call for more communication skills of various kinds, and recent evidence suggests that the steady spread of high-involvement management practices may be partly behind the growing use of communication skills, including literacy, displayed in Figure 1.

5. Conclusion.

The evidence is that certain generic skills are being increasingly used in the British economy. Notably, it is influence skills, literacy, and self-planning that have been growing the fastest, while others, such as physical skills, have remained unchanged. In other words, both cognitive and interactive skills are increasing. It is likely that the inexorable spread of computer-based technologies have been one major driving force behind the changing use of skills, but this force is supplemented by the slow but steady spread of high-involvement management practices in both private and public organisations.

The relevance for labour markets is that scarce skills can affect the structure of pay in labour markets. While a number of skills can quite easily be generated as needed within firms, either by formal training schemes or through providing a conducive learning environment, sometimes skills become scarce, cannot easily be supplied in the short run, and acquire a “quasi-rent”. Influence skills, in particular, appear to have acquired a premium in recent years, even more so when used in a complementary way with the deployment of computer skills (Green et al, 2007).

The relevance for education and training systems is two fold. First, the rising demands for higher-level cognitive and interactive skills provides some substance to the idea that modern jobs are indeed requiring steadily higher-level skills that need to be met by increasingly higher-educated workers. There is, thus, a continuing economic rationale for educational expansion, in addition to the many social and moral arguments in favour. Second, policies for education and training curricula should reflect the identified needs for communication skills in modern workplaces. This means not just the continuing demands for a more literate workforce that can write and read adequately to convey meanings concisely and accurately, but also the evident requirements for communicating through interacting with other people. Whether in teams or through making presentations, or through influencing people to think differently, or helping to solve the many complex problems of modern workplaces, increasingly modern workers need to be able to communicate with others, and listen to them, in more sophisticated ways than in earlier days. Educationalists might like to take note of how this might affect the ways we teach the arts of communication in our schools.

References.

Ashton, D. and Sung, J. (2002). Supporting Workplace Learning for High Performance Working. Geneva, International Labour Office.

Autor, D.H., Levy, F. and Murnane, R.J. (2003). Computer-Based Technological Change and Skill. In: Appelbaum, E., Bernhardt, A. and Murnane, R.J. Low-Wage America. New York, Russell Sage Foundation.

Bresnahan, T.F., Brynjolfsson, E. and Hitt, L.M. (2002). Information Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117 (1), pp.339-376.

Felstead, A., Gallie, D., Green, F. and Zhou, Y. (2007). Skills At Work, 1986 to 2006. University of Oxford, SKOPE.

Fernández-Macías, E. and Hurley, J. (2008). More and better jobs: Patterns of employment expansion in Europe. Dublin, European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions.

Goos, M. and Manning, A. (2007). Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89 (1), pp.118-133.

Green, F., Gallie, D., Felstead, A. and Zhou, Y. (2007). Computers and Pay. National Institute Economic Review, July, pp.63-75.

Machin, S. and Van Reenen, J. (1998). Technology and Changes in Skill Structure: Evidence From Seven OECD Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113 (4), pp.1215-1244.

See, for example, Machin and van Reenen (1998)

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

ICT can be viewed as the ultimate enabling technology. The meteoric rise in the deployment of computers since the first appearance of commercial data processing in the 1960s has left few aspects of society, the workplace and peoples’ personal lives untouched. And developments in telecommunications, most notably the arrival of the internet, have realised the immense power of the combination of information processing and communication that was anticipated in the early days. Of course, as with all technologies, not all aspects of ICT deployment have produced unalloyed good: inappropriate and/or ineffective use has brought its own set of problems, ICT-enabled processes that were apparently both appropriate and effective have sometimes had serious unintended consequences, and the very value and power of this all-pervading technology have been used in support of aims and activities of which few would approve.

It would be folly to attempt to summarise and structure the wide range of ICT streams, approaches, technologies and devices that have impacted thus far on the world of work. The all-pervasive nature, and sometimes unexpected impacts, of ICT (as well as its very great complexity and use of jargon), have challenged attempts to ‘keep track’ of developments and to find consensus at any one time on ‘what’s going on’ overall. Indeed the complexity and all-pervasiveness of IT have resulted in two major challenges:

• the market for ICT products and services is as close as it is possible to be to a market in which the buyer does not really understand what they are buying (the consequences of which continue to appear), and

• there is a significant, and growing, disconnect between the academic body of knowledge of computing and many of the realities of ICT out in the market-place. This has posed real difficulties in finding structured common ground between the two communities, both in the United Kingdom and beyond. Such common ground is generally crucial for sustaining effective structured innovation.

In short, ICT, while immensely powerful and having brought amazing things, is remarkably difficult to comprehensively understand or to manage effectively. In addition, of course, attempts to understand, distil and codify good practice suffer from the relentless waves of change that continues to characterise the ICT world. The ‘rules of the game’, on which good practice in development methodologies and management approaches are based, are often tested and found no longer fully relevant when each new tool or approach comes along. The ICT world has been one where maturity is rare, and the effect of this inevitably poses real challenges for reliable deployment in ways which all those involved clearly understand.

Assessing future-gazing in ICT

In the light of this, it is no surprise that ICT developments are far from easy to predict! There have been many attempts since its coming of age in the 1960s to map out what ‘the next big thing’ will be, and how this powerful enabling technology will affect our world. It is not surprising that, given the immense cross-cutting generic power of ICT, many commentators have easily been ‘carried away’ with how much it will change our lives. When reflecting on previous ‘forecasts’, one is struck by the apparent excessive confidence with which forthcoming changes have been asserted (in particular from the – understandably positive – attitudes of those directly involved in ICT developments. But also striking is how difficult it is to predict the timescales of such changes (even of the more plausible ones) accurately. Many aspects of ICT development have turned out to confirm the more intelligent forecasts, but most major changes have taken longer to occur than expected, sometimes considerably longer.

On the one hand this confirms that existing social and economic ’systems’ generally have – for a range of reasons – considerably more inertia than most of us realise. On the other there is evidently variation between technology take-up rates in different societies, communities and countries, and such differences may well play a role in comparative innovation rates in different economies, and of consequent economic advantage. Study of innovation at the enterprise level has taught us that it does not always pay to be an early adopter of a brand new technology. Nevertheless, if change arising from new technological opportunities lags much behind that in ‘competitor countries’ this is likely to have an adverse economic effect. In principle, therefore, it seems likely that – for achieving the most globally-competitive UK plc – economic benefits are likely to arise from greater ‘agility’ and readiness to improve business/operational processes in response to new technology opportunities. This will have implications for knowledge and skill needs in people coming from the education system, but – as will be seen – not necessarily the initially obvious ones.

2 Ways in which ICT affects the world of work

Given the great complexity and relentless flux that is the reality of ICT, what principles could help us begin to get a feel for what the future holds in terms of its impact on the world of work? Certain things can be said. At the very least we need to recognise that ICT can play a role in:

1. what prepares the individual for work (through ICT support for education and training)

1. what supports the individual’s efforts to identify plausible work or work areas (including contributions to the provision of Information, Advice and Guidance (IAG) arrangements)

1. what takes place in the individual’s efforts to find specific work (in particular the preparation of his/her labour market ‘offer’ – both cv and other preparations – and the recruitment process itself)

1. then, in relation to the ‘job’ itself, ICT can play a role in relation to
   1. the content of the job (or set of tasks) we carry out for remuneration
   2. the processes by which we, as individuals, carry out the task; and
   3. the processes by which we interact with others in the completion of the task (these others will include both possible suppliers of some kind, colleagues of some kind, and customers of some kind (in most cases, an employer) – including the ‘part’ of the customer/employer responsible for the remuneration).

1. and, to the extent that the individual subsequently gets involved in the organisation of work (the work of others), ICT can – and generally does – play a significant role in management and operations;

1. and finally, ICT can enable the creation of new income streams for the individual. While this is generally not viewed as directly related to work, it is essential to bear in mind, as it represents a ‘way into paid work’, of which school leavers need to be aware.
2. In the extreme case, this can be through the formal establishment of a new business from which the individual and others can benefit, but there are a range of activities short of this (some ad hoc, some extended) that can be beneficial. In all cases they involve the realisation of some asset of the individual to create a ‘product’ or ’service’ for which someone else – perhaps initially the immediate social group – is prepared to pay money (initially often comparatively small amounts).

These dimensions are now considered in more detail.

2.1 The development of the individual’s learning for work (through ICT support for education and training)

A considerable amount has been written in relation to ICT-enabled learning (which has had many different emphases and ‘brands’ over the years), and that is not the focus of this paper (and is covered elsewhere in the BCH work). However, it is important to remember that the individual’s learning in the broadest sense will, today, often be influenced by his or her ‘exploration of the world’ through the internet (whatever such exploration might consist of, and recognising that not all children will have – or use – such access). Much of what is learned by browsing the web can be of a specific, or ‘factual’, nature, but this element of informal/non-formal learning cannot be dismissed. Indeed the ‘formal’ education system needs to be aware of it and to contribute to guiding young people in how to effectively and sensibly build these explorations in to their overall learning. In fact it could be argued that a growing awareness of specifics in the outside world that results is indeed responding to an important part of the need for young people’s learning to pick up the many realities with which they are going to have to cope in the – sometimes tough – world of work.

It is also worth noting that ICT support for learning is not just important in relation to the young person’s experience when going through the formal (initial) education system. The rhetoric of recent years, that changing skill requirements in the workplace throughout peoples’ working lives mean that Life Long Learning will indeed be important, while perhaps not yet fully responded to, is indeed valid, and ICT will have its role to play in this.

2.2 The individual’s efforts to identify plausible work or work areas (including the provision of IAG);

Information, Advice and Guidance is addressed in depth in Bimrose’s BCH paper. It is, however, worth flagging the fact that, here too, ICT can and will play a role. A powerful pointer to future possibilities was provided nearly a decade ago in the United States, through the ‘virtual one stop‘ project, initiated in Florida. This developed a rather comprehensive web-based environment that, in principle, supported the user into appropriate work, all the way through the process: from identifying online their strengths and weaknesses and finding plausible occupations corresponding to these, to tracking down relevant training to tackle their knowledge and skill gaps, and finding and applying for relevant vacancies (see Annex A for more detail). While early trial versions of the system were most impressive, it is interesting that the approach does not appear in the meantime to have been successfully implemented, either in the U.S. (where there was considerable interest at the State level) or in the U.K., where – after serious consideration – the likely cost was concluded to be prohibitive. It is recognised that the scale of all the databases (to be built and maintained) that would be required for such a single comprehensive system would make it an excessively large undertaking. However, many of the components of the proposition are independently emerging as web-based services, and other advances in web technology may well facilitate sufficient integration to allow implementation of something not too far from the original aspiration. In any case it is to be expected that parts of the process will be able to be carried out (and indeed are already being carried out: certainly, for example, the internet has already made a major impact on – the early stages of – the recruitment process).

2.3 The individual’s efforts to find specific work

As indicated, the internet has already made a major impact on the recruitment process (see eg LSE/ONREC, 2004). While early developments focused on recruitment for occupations related to ICT, things have moved on from this, and the processes of the recruitment world have – in advanced economies – changed for ever. Only those employment/recruitment intermediaries who have embraced the internet have survived, and many bright young ‘candidates’ would now be concerned if a possible employer did not have recruitment information on their website. As mentioned above, the individual is able (with the appropriate skills) to draw on ICT resources in refining his/her approach to a potential employer, both for tailoring the initial approach (c.v.) and for understanding enough about the organisation to ensure that s/he is sufficiently knowledgeable and ‘up to speed’, at the interview.

2.4 ICT’s impact on the job itself:

Job Content

As with all technologies, ICT has changed the nature of what activities are valued sufficiently to be remunerated.

Some change is small – eg production of paper documents continues (the availability of low cost- high quality printers, and the many advantages of paper as a medium, has so far put paid to the aspirations for the paperless office so long heralded).

Other change has resulted in quite new activities/occupations that are commercially mainstream: the emergence of e-business has produced activity of commercial value that never existed before (eg jobs supporting the infrastructure now operating around such businesses as Amazon and e-Bay). The other obvious example would be Call Centre work.

Job Processes

This is perhaps the most obvious component of the major impact of ICT. ICT systems are generally powerful new tools that enable us to do what we want to do more effectively, quicker, and/or to a higher quality. Thus, while we may still be producing paper documents, the way we produce and refine them, as well as their ‘quality’, is now very different to what could be produced on (even) a (very expensive) typewriter. Even more remarkable is the power and sophistication of low cost design tools like AutoCAD, which can enable, at a fraction of the former cost, the production of high quality manufacturing drawings in engineering but also a wide range of more ‘artistic’ products (use in clothes design, advertising products). And of course perhaps the most widespread ICT-enabled change has occurred in the world of finance and accounting, where millions of transactions of all kinds now take place through, and are accounted on, ICT systems.

Interactions with others involved in working relationships

Few examples of paid work exist in complete isolation from other people. In particular working tasks are generally undertaken within a context, and that context involves others. In the broadest sense, each person ‘picks up’ work tasks from others and ‘passes’ the outcome of his/her contribution to others.

At the very least, the individual needs to understand – within this ‘value-chain’ – what they are to do, how they are to do it and what is important in what they are delivering, and these specifications/clarification generally come from colleagues, bosses or ‘customers’. ICT can play a range of roles in this context, from being the channel through which the specifications/ clarifications are communicated, to providing the formal organisational environment through which tasks are scheduled, monitored and progressed (‘management systems’ like – in manufacturing – SAP).

In the end, we work in order to earn our livelihoods, and the final stage in the remuneration process, whether it be the HR or Finance department authorisations of an employer’s payroll run, or the sign-off by a senior manager of a payment for an individual assignment, is essential for satisfactory completion of the working contribution. In the context of an employer, this part of the process generally happens through a regular procedure, without the individual having to ‘get involved’, though if there is any surprise with what is paid, contact does need to be made. This step generally takes place on/through certain ICT systems, and – where problems arise – can be checked and queried with the use of others.

2.5 The organisation of work

As well as having the ‘ICT-user’ skills to manage their own (individual) work contribution, those who get involved in the management of an organisation – and so the management of others – will need the additional skills of mastering the use of ICT tools and systems that are used as part of organisational management. And, in principle, people need a sufficient understanding to contribute – in some way – to the management of the organisation’s ICT itself. This inevitably involves the need for the individual to master ICT tools and systems that go beyond what is necessary for managing the ICT aspects of one’s own work. Given that the step into such work is unlikely to come until the individual has quite a bit of experience in a workforce or a sector, such systems are unlikely ever to be able to be taught in the formal education system (with the possible exception of some exposure to it for students at business schools). Thus the implication of what is needed in the formal education system is again the generic skills of ability to learn quickly rather than specific ICT user skills.

2.6 The creation of new revenue streams

Most individuals have, or can comparatively quickly acquire, the skills to provide benefits to others. These skills initially manifest themselves in the informal relationships of the early years, as children learn cooperative behaviour and how and why to do ‘good turns’ to others. While it is essential that the co-operative attitudes engendered in early social settings are not exploited too quickly, and all acts of giving are not seen as potential ’selling’ opportunities, there is no doubt that UK society has, in recent decades, become used to ‘trading’ for things that fifty years ago would have been given or perhaps ‘exchanged’. The growth of car boot sales is one example of this, though the arrival, and remarkable success, of e-bay has shown how ICT can make a huge impact in this area. The key factor here, of course, is the (organised) communication element of ICT, through which the ‘market’ of possible buyers of something the individual owns has been hugely increased. The scale of a market has a powerful impact on economic activity, and through ICT-enabled mechanisms, it is now possible for the number of possible buyers an individual can gain revenue from for things s/he owns (or could make) to increase a hundredfold.

Essentially ICT is enabling a massive expansion in the ability for the individual to ’sell what s/he has’, beyond the comparatively small community within which s/he was previously able to ‘market his/her ‘goods and services’. In particular, through the mechanism of websites like Etsy, making a living out of handicraft work – which suffered from the limitations of being a ‘cottage industry’ or merely representing ‘pin money’ activity – has become something many times more feasible. There are numerous examples of small businesses that have sprung up in response to decline in certain traditional sectors (eg agriculture), where ICT (generally through the new infrastructure provided by the internet) has enabled practical diversification. While such ‘new ICT-enabled markets’ are not immune to economic downturn, the scale of the marketplace can be such that any impact is likely to be less than in many local markets of the past, and it is clear that innovation in e-business is far from finished, and that all kinds of opportunities remain.

The implication of this for what school leavers will need to be able to do includes both the requirement for adequate ICT user skills and the understanding that there could be economic benefit to the individual from being creative with the ICT infrastructure: perhaps ICT classes could include group projects to set up new e-businesses – to instil the awareness, realisation and initial confidence in this area.

In conclusion it is worth noting that the ability of ICT to remove the significance of place plays a major role in all of the above. An example of how this aspect developed in the early years illustrates key principles. Initial reviews, in the mid 1990s, of the ‘teleworking’ that emerged after useful telecomms. links began to be available, confirmed certain limitations on full-time home working. However, refinements in ICT infrastructure and applications, as well as early lessons about the need for both confidence-building in managers and ‘physical encounters’ with colleagues from time to time, have led to widespread flexibility for home working where this is a) necessitated for some reason – eg commuting problems – or b) beneficial in other ways – eg commuting time used for additional work, as well as lower levels of distraction for periods of work needing high concentration.

It is becoming evident that probably the most significant impact that ICT can have on work, and one that can only be expected to increase, is in overcoming the need for the worker to be physically present in the workplace. This is examined in some depth in the BCH contribution by Felstead. ICT developments have been the major enabler of this, and can be expected to provide even more opportunities of this kind, as telecommunication bandwidth grows to a point where ‘high fidelity’ interaction between various numbers of people located in different places will be increasingly possible. In particular, considerable enhancements are to be expected in teleconferencing infrastructure beyond the ‘first generation’ software and systems evident so far.

Current practice tends to assume that collaborative remote working is generally more effective where a group of collaborators has ‘got to know each other’ through physical meetings beforehand. However, this may represent a transitional practice that will be superseded, as trust builds up in ‘un-prepared’ collaboration. After all, the internet provides an infrastructure that is global – there is no longer any effective difference between remoteness measured in a few kilometres and remoteness measured in thousands, and many collaborating communities have developed, including those involving real money flows, across national and cultural borders. Considerable amounts of trust are involved in this, and recognising that such working practices have existed in multinational corporations for many years (ie new collaborations being initiated without previous contact) it is possible that breakdowns of trust that arise might be responded to by the establishment of Trusted Third Parties of some kind. These would take the place of the trust taken for granted when working for the first time with collaborators who work for the same company). However, the trans-cultural element of such work might result in certain challenges arising from the absence of a common corporate culture, since they involve making allowances for others’ behaviour in the absence of some overall awareness/understanding of the collaborator’s culture that would in the past have come from some physical exposure to that different culture (possibly some implications for what needs to be learned by children here).

3 Does ICT create or destroy jobs?

Since the earliest days of scientific and technological development, the changes brought about by the arrival of new technology have brought both benefits and problems to society, employers and individuals. To the extent that technology generally provides new opportunities for doing things differently, it poses both opportunities and threats to the economic status quo. Any process that involves people earning their living may be affected by the deployment of a new technology. In direct terms, this can reasonably be viewed as a threat – after all, for those who benefit economically from an existing process, a threat to the continuation of that process is also a threat to those who currently benefit from it. On the other hand, new technology may – generally would – allow the overall (cost-) effectiveness of the process to be improved, resulting in cost reduction for that element of the economy as a whole. In addition, those who effectively harness the new technology and provide alternative, more cost-effective, processes will (after a transition period) gain both through (in a market economy) ‘winning business away’ from those still using the older process, and – in principle – gaining longer-term benefits from being a leading adopter, through a greater established ‘market share’. However, the replacement throughout the economy of a process by a more efficient one will, initially at least, result in the loss of activity of those operating (and benefiting financially from) the original one. This suggests that, in an age in which the emergence of new technologies is likely to remain a reality (indeed an inevitability), it is beneficial (probably, in the long term, essential) for both organisations and individuals to be open to, and willing and ready to respond and adapt to, such change. The implications for the world of work, and thence for the world of education, are clear: individuals will have better chances for economic success if they are able, and ready, to adapt to new circumstances and new technologies. This will emphasise the need for acquisition, within the formal education system, of skills of adaptation and speed and effectiveness of learning.

The extreme form of this question relates to automation. While ICT impacts on organisational processes in a range of ways, in some cases, ICT can provide a basis for the automation of certain processes – the replacement of the human previously carrying out the task. The usual analogy is that (mechanical) machines have often enabled the substitution of many of the physical components of human work, while computers can enable the replacement of certain elements of ‘brain-power’. It has always been argued that the ‘replacement of the human’ is only partial, so that the ‘physical strength’ of the machine has been respected for its contribution for parts of the physical element of a task of role (with the human both having the most strenuous/difficult (boring?) tasks removed) and thus having time and energy freed up to allow the performance of other – perhaps more skilled – physical tasks. In relation to ICT, the argument has gone along similar lines: computers have enabled some of the more routine/repetitive tasks in a job to be taken care of, again freeing up the time of staff using their mental capacities to carry out more sophisticated tasks, improving either overall productiveness of the operation or the quality of the output. However, it is important to realise that, while there is much truth in these arguments, they do not eliminate the fact that certain occupations which provided a livelihood to someone in the past have disappeared (or largely disappeared) due to technological innovation, and for the person involved it was therefore indeed valid to view the technology that has caused that as having posed a threat. In principle, the response to this lies in re-training the individual, so s/he can be able to earn a living in a different/new occupation or set of tasks. At the macro level economic evolution has always involved the decline (for organisations) of certain sectors and the rise of others, and (for individuals) the decline of certain occupations and the rise of others. However, the feasibility of achieving sufficient re-training of workers from a disappearing occupation to enable them to make an economic contribution to another occupation can vary considerably. In particular, the chances of this are often limited for older workers whose ability, and perhaps commitment, to acquiring sufficient new – and often very different – skills to earn their living in a completely different world, can be quite low.

However, as seen above, ICT can – and does – enable the generation of revenue for the individual, and the creation of a wide range of new businesses, with accompanying job creation. The massive growth of e-business since the arrival of the internet has provided work – albeit of a different kind – to many millions of people. In addition the rise of ICT as a whole has resulted directly in the creation, since the 1950s, of well over 1 million new jobs in the UK for ICT practitioners. Thus it is evident that ICT both destroys jobs and creates new ones.

Once again, the evident implication of all this on the likely workplace requirements (for the desirable knowledge and skill-sets to be acquired in the formal education system) is one of the need for adaptability and for developing strengths in the ability to learn new and different skills, rather than the specifics of current ICT tools alone.

4 Work or employment?

While there has always been a range of working relationships, the deployment of ICT has – over recent years – provided considerable additional flexibility to the relationship between worker and ‘remunerator’.

Clearly employment contracts with a single employer – whether full- or part-time – remain the norm for most people in an economy’s workforce. However there has been a growth over recent years in alternative arrangements. The writer is part-time employed (and so receives a regular payment at the end of each month) and carries out, in addition, individual consultancy assignments of varying lengths on a self-employed status (sending each customer one or more ‘bills’). There is much to be said for having a steady income, though there can also be some disadvantages. Self employed work has benefits, but also the additional effort of responsibility for ensuring the remuneration part of work: such arrangements therefore bring considerable overhead/transaction costs with them. However ICT can help with this, and through ICT it is possible for ‘consultancy’ (or ‘contract’) assignments to be initiated, carried out and completed without customer and contractor having actually met.

There are clearly, for each party, benefits and disadvantages of both employed status and self-employed status work.

How employed status work is viewed

How self-employed work is viewed

While ICT developments are likely to enable additional, new ways for paid work to take place, these two arrangements will undoubtedly continue, and ‘portfolio’ careers involving combinations of these will undoubtedly play a part in the future world of work.

As productivity pressures grow on all organisations – competitive pressures in the private sector and budgetary pressures in the public sector – the need for effective and appropriate ‘outputs’ to be delivered per ‘unit’ human cost invested grows, and this has already led to greater use of contractors and of more flexible working arrangements in today’s economy. These factors in turn increase the possibility and, for some, the attractiveness, of portfolio careers involving more than one work relationship at any one time. The infrastructure now possible through ICT can play an important role in enabling the desired flexibility. While the evidence of a major trend in this direction is limited, this may be another example of a change that takes longer than expected to occur on a large scale.

5 Paid Work, other work, unemployment and leisure

The above ideas have focused on work as that which provides an individual’s livelihood. However, it is clear – and is considered in some depth in other BCH contributions – that the future world will include people being involved in a range of activities, some of which may be viewed as work even though they do not involve payment, and that ICT will also play a role in handling relationships between the different activities, and the people involved in each, resulting in a steady increase in portfolio careers in the coming years.

Most people in the UK now have access to a computer, and use e-mails to communicate and browse the web to find out about things outside of paid work. Thus it will be natural for ICT to support these other activities. Indeed the boundaries between these different activities are likely to soften. After all, contacts made through non-paid work activities (and even through leisure activities) can lead to work opportunities (whether continuing or short term), and expertise developed through hobbies can begin to gain economic value in relation to emerging new sectors or markets. For example, those who become very proficient in enjoying computer games can sometimes become valuable for the ‘beta’ testing of new games products. Leisure activities that have previously not involved commercial activity can begin to become interesting – fit people who are very active in sport can sometimes earn additional income as personal fitness trainers.

And finally the more flexible work patterns possible with ICT-enabling can also provide new opportunities in personal and family relationships. Economic pressures on families can indeed result in long working hours that can reduce time together, but ICT-enabled remote working of one or more parent can ameliorate this.

As indicated above, one of ICT’s major implications in relation to the world of work has been its ability to enable new revenue streams, and provide an infrastructure by which such activity can be developed into a new business, or at least a new way of earning one’s living. There are many dimensions to the transition from small-scale, low-value paid – but ‘unregulated’ – activity into officially ‘registered’ economic activity (on which, in particular, certain tax is levied for the state). Many of the elements of ‘black’ or ‘informal’ economies are analogous here, and Round’s paper for BCH addresses these in some detail. In general, ICT would be expected to accelerate the growth of an informal activity into something sufficiently large to be self-sustaining and possibly provide work for others. In addition, of course, an internet presence is something that can be detected and tracked by national authorities, which in turn would in principle result in earlier transition from the informal to the formal economy. Many governments are anxious to reduce ‘barriers to entry’ to the marketplace for new businesses, and real reductions in barriers to entry may also pay a role in reducing the ‘transition’ duration.

6 ICT skills

The most direct implication of all this on the requirements for young people’s understanding as they grow up and begin to contribute to society relates to their ability to make use of the wide range of ICT devices, tools and systems, and of their ability to (quickly) learn more detailed, sophisticated and effective use.

ICT skills are generally viewed as consisting of two main types: ICT User skills and ICT Practitioner skills, and there is now considerable understanding of what is needed for each in the workplace (see e-skills UK website). At school level the main focus is understandably around ICT User skills, notwithstanding the expertise of a small number of young people already doing things that would ‘normally’ be done by ICT Practitioners.

Reviews of ICT school qualifications and of how ICT is used by workforce entrants raise the question of what might be the best way for such ICT User Skills to be taught in schools. On the one hand, many (most?) office jobs need adequate familiarity with ’standard office software’ involving word processing, e-mailing, web browsing and some awareness of simple use of spreadsheets, presentation software and databases, and a reasonable exposure to, and adequate awareness of, these things is increasingly considered essential to ensure the young person’s employability. On the other, excessive focus on these applications may both prove not very inspiring and may narrow the young person’s horizon and so prevent them from being either attracted to work as an ICT practitioner or becoming able to think creatively about ICT and its future potential applications.

Of course the very dynamism of ICT poses real challenges for the widespread acquisition of ICT User skills that is likely to be important for its effective use, both in the workplace and beyond. It is understandable that the arrival of new technologies in the workplace can be a cause of fear in working people – fear that they will not be able to understand and learn to use the technologies, and fear that these technologies will so change their contributions that their livelihoods might ultimately be at risk. Such initial fears inevitably colour attitudes to acquiring the relevant skills. As generally older people find it harder to change the way they do things, and a range of subtle factors – including such things as a reluctance for senior people in an organisation to be seen as unable to master things that more junior staff can (like using a keyboard) – can play an important role in how the new technologies are picked up.

It was quickly realised that widespread acquisition of good ICT skills would probably await the penetration into the workforce of sufficient cohorts of ‘Digital Natives’: the ‘next generation’ for whom use of ICT devices and systems was ‘no big deal’, and certainly no threat. However, while this process is undoubtedly happening, the waves of innovation so characteristic of ICT mean that it would be unwise to assume that that the ‘passage of cohorts’ will solve the problem ‘once and for all’. The recent study of ‘IT & Telecoms Insights 2008: Trends and UK Skills Implications’ for e-skills UK shows the importance of the changes arising from the presence of Digital Natives, as well as the implications of expected trends in the ICT world on ICT users and their skill needs (see Annex B).

New ICT systems bring both new functionality and new user interfaces. The Human Computer Interface stream of academic computing research has, over the years, taught us things about how humans interact with machines most effectively. However, the realities of interactions with ICT devices have generally been driven less by academic research than by what has come with commercial products – the WIMP interfaces that emerged from the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) Labs onto the first Apple Mac are a good example of this. Perhaps the most obvious candidate for obsolescence is the keyboard, and while automating speech recognition in a wide range of conditions and background noise levels is known to be a massively difficult task, and progress so far has manifestly failed to make the keyboard obsolete, it seems likely that that will come.

7 Probable developments in the world of work arising from ICT developments

The most natural assumption to make in relation to future developments in ICT is to recognise that new and creative manifestations of the broad principles articulated in section 2 will continue or increase change. Examples of the kinds of Technological Drivers (ICT and beyond) that would be expected to play significant roles in ICT activity and the world of work the coming years are:

• Major new classes of ICT, applications and styles of use of technology introduced and exploited
• Improved user interfaces widely used
• Greater adoption of software engineering (tools) and more disciplined approaches to system development
• Enhanced telecommunications infrastructure and services (eg mobile broadband)
• Maturing of (parts of?) ICT infrastructure/services
• (Significant) improvement in (cost-) effectiveness of e-Learning
• Growing impact of technology convergence on content-related products & services
• New technologically-based threats to infrastructure and business experienced on a significant scale (eg electronic warfare)
• More use of bio-mimetics in design (growth of nature-inspired design)
• Impact of more accurate geographical positioning systems (eg Galileo) in terms of more and better services, and new generation Geographical Information Systems generally
• Growth of use of ubiquitous and utility computing – emergence of Ambient Intelligence as a social and business platform
• Growth in development and availability of carbon-emission reducing technologies
• Continuing growth in creative applications of ICTs in existing and new areas (eg e-health, spatial and movement tracking systems, e-democracy, leisure)
• Development and deployment of Digital Rights Management (DRM) and related technologies, and
• Shift towards of the use of Open-Source Software.

The implications of these will be significant (generic) impacts on the world of work, and – as noted above – the timing of such impacts will vary. A recent study on the future of e-Skills for the ICT industry in Europe examined the impact of these drivers (as well as others – Societal, Environmental, Political, Economic, and Values-related) on the demand, supply and possible off-shoring of ICT Practitioner skills (see CEPIS, 2007).

The European study focused on demand and supply of ICT Practitioner skills, and so on the designing, building, operating, and maintaining of software and ICT systems. Having identified some 90 change drivers (including Societal, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values-related), it concluded that three of these would be likely to have the greatest influence on ICT practitioner activity levels in Europe: Economic confidence, the rate of technical innovation, and the amount of ‘off-shoring’, and six scenarios using combinations of these three core drivers were produced to enable possible futures to be explored.

While possible futures arising from different combinations of value of key drivers contain considerable complexity, it is possible to offer qualitative considerations of one or two dimensions of how the future might pan out, in relation to ICT developments and their impacts on the world of work.

a) The relentless growth in functionality of ICT devices and systems will continue to offer new opportunities for activity of all kinds (some examples would be devices embedded in many new and conventional products as well as the growth of ‘fidelity of experience’ (remote interactions with others which begin to feel as though they are in the same room), and the improvement of virtual reality environments, at decreasing cost.

b) Apart from a slowing of ICT innovation arising from significant financial slow-down (now a possibility in 2009+), probably the greatest influence in the opposite direction is security issues. These are of many kinds – from attacks on ICT infrastructure (including the internet) to social reactions against a perceived growing ‘big brother’ society; and from the impact of loss of significant public sector data to the continuing levels of computer crime.

The actual situation in mass markets may well depend on the balance between all the positive forces motivating for continuing innovation, and the negative influence of security-related problems.

It is important to note that many existing developments point the way to continuing waves of ICT-enabled innovation. Some examples relating to e-business would include:

eBay has lowered the bar for small businesses and individuals to set up virtual “shop”. Similarly Etsy helps people to sell craft wares in a way that was impossible before the internet. Blogging has gone from a niche and hobby activity to a pursuit that many now enter in order to profit from Google Adwords and product placement. “Second Life” has started a real debate on the taxing of items and generation of real income from activities conducted in virtual worlds. This has raised some issues of legality (refs. the difficulties faced by ige.com in making it possible to exchange in-game currencies for real ones). Related to this is the (still contested) notion of the viability of the ‘long tail’ , niche strategy of businesses, such as Amazon.com or Netflix, that sell a large number of unique items, each in relatively small quantities).

In addition it is crucial to recognise, when considering the social reactions to ICT and other developments, some of the changing attitudes to the world of work that are already happening. Probably the most significant example is the growing interest in the attitudes of Generation Y (generally viewed as those born between 1982 – 2001, who have been coming onto the labour market over recent years). The general perception is that they are comparatively well-educated, particularly ‘tech-savvy’, are especially tuned to their own value in the job market, have limited loyalty to any particular employer, and, perhaps as a result of reactions against their parents’ excessive time commitment to work, insist on working in a stimulating job environment, and, perhaps, accepting lower remuneration levels to achieve this. They are also viewed as likely to move jobs more often than previous generations. While such perceptions will no doubt get refined as more evidence on this cohort emerges, such characteristics do suggest an important shift in attitudes towards work, and probably therefore certain shifts in the employer-employee relationship which may make the best talent more difficult to recruit. The combination of ICT skills, greater expectations and lower loyalty to individual employers would presumably tend to strengthen trends away from ‘getting a job’ towards ‘making your own work’ (ie creating income streams or businesses). This suggests a further factor to increase take-up of portfolio careers.

8 Assessing how the implications of ICT developments in the world of work need to be considered within the formal education system

When considering the implications for the formal education system of the skills requirements in the world of work, it is essential to consider the realities of the process of influencing curricula from the needs of the workplace. Much of skills policy in the United Kingdom over recent years has been driven by a desire for the country’s learning infrastructure to be better aligned to the skill needs of employers. Leaving aside the fact that education is indeed more than just a preparation for work, the great challenge in this approach lies in the difficulty of clarifying precisely what those employers’ needs are. There are a number of dimensions of this:

a) Employers’ skills needs vary considerably, since what different employers do and how they do it varies considerably. This does not mean that there might not be some common requirements (and it is interesting that most employer surveys include, in their conclusions, the need for recruitment candidates to have good generic-, ‘key’-, or ’soft’-, skills as well as positive motivation), but that beyond this the skill requirements cover an enormous range. The differences include:

i) differences between sectors (it has long been recognised to be important for sectoral differences to be acknowledged and investigated – hence the role of sector skills bodies, starting after the Second World War with the original ‘Industry Training Boards’)

ii) differences between occupations. In fact at skill levels anything above ‘unskilled’ jobs, the knowledge, skill and competence requirements relate essentially to occupations, rather than sectors. Within a sector there are a wide range of occupations, and the skill requirements for (eg) an engineering company’s accountant(s), personnel assistant(s) and cleaning staff are essentially irrelevant to the skill needs for the engineers who carry out the company’s core activity. Since most important occupations cross many sectoral boundaries, this becomes important when interpreting different employers’ perceptions about the same occupation

iii) differences between employers of different size. It is natural that large employers will be able to recruit people with different skill-sets. This will result in a wide range of expertise being at the employers’ disposal through a wide range of people each with different expertise. Many of the same functions that take place in larger employers are required in smaller organisations, but ‘Small and Medium-sized Enterprises’ must perform them without the availability of the specialist expertise. While certain activity can be (and is) out-sourced, it is inevitable that employees of a small organisation generally need to be able to carry out a broader range of activities, in many cases things beyond what their education and training prepared them for. Thus skill-sets in small organisations generally need to be broader, while large employers can sustain a much great number of specialists.

iv) differences between organisational objectives and work-organisation ’styles’. Organizations carrying out the same business (eg competing companies in the same sector) can often have different business objectives – for example in terms of their stage of development, growth path and market strategies – as well as very different organisational cultures. The skill requirements for someone seeking work in a very modern, flat hierarchy (heavily delegated) and ICT-enabled company would of course be different from those needed for entering one with a rather traditional, hierarchical culture.

Given these significant variations, employer surveys of skill needs ought to differentiate their findings to take this into account, and if they don’t, their conclusions are subject to questioning as to their validity.

a) few individuals leaving the formal education system can be expected to be particularly competent in the specifics of their first job (except perhaps where the individual has learned a specific job-relevant skill outside the formal system). This means that most employers are likely to have to provide job-specific training before the ‘new recruit’ becomes productive, and sometimes that training appears to take longer than the employer thinks it should. This can lead to employers concluding that they have to ‘teach’ young people certain things that the employer thinks ’should have been learned in the education system’, ‘for which they have paid’ through their taxes. While this situation has always existed to a greater or lesser extent, growing pressures on employers (in particular competitive pressures in the private sector) have probably made employers more impatient than in the past with the delay before new recruits become productive.

These experiences and perceptions inevitably get picked up in employers’ surveys about skill needs and their views about the ‘products’ of the education system. Such surveys therefore tend to focus on the limitations of new recruits fresh from the education system, rather than any other characteristics. While this is in principle reasonable (it is right for policy to address problems), it tends to result in the skills debate being driven excessively by what is (felt to be) missing. In principle, it is possible to respond to concerns about ‘gaps’ by introducing a new element into the curriculum that addresses that particular area of knowledge. However, even if there could be a clear consensus across all employers as to what ‘new subject’ should be added, there also needs to be a consensus about what should be removed from the existing curriculum to make room for it! Since education system leavers have a range of capabilities, some of which employers do value, there is always the risk that employers’ concerns could then simply shift to the new gap arising from what has gone from the curriculum.

9 Some Conclusions

What, then, are the conclusions that can be drawn from this brief overview of the likely future role of ICT in the workplace?

• That ICT can be expected to continue to make major impacts on the world of work, and that societies, employers and individuals will continue to receive a range of benefits, though the complexities of ICT will continue to result in certain unintended consequences and adverse effects.
• That the adverse effects will include the loss of work in some activities, so that ‘agility’, ‘creativeness’, willingness and ability to adapt to new situations and learn new skills will become even more important for continuing employability than they currently are.
• That ICT will continue to provide a range of additional opportunities in relation to all aspects of work, and of all types of work.
• That confidence, and adequate competence, with using ICT will continue to be important in the world of work and beyond. However, effective use of ICT in earning one’s living will depend less on the specifics of the ICT user skills studied within the formal education system than on the generic understanding around it. Thus that system needs to understand that the specific user skills taught form only part of the foundations of the confidence and adequate competence of ICT use, so that learning must go beyond this.

References

e-skills UK (20087) IT & Telecoms Insights 2008: Trends and UK Skills Implications. Produced by e-skills UK based on published research by Gartner Executive Programs, January, 2008

CEPIS (2007) Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe: Harnessing our Strengths and Diversity for the World Stage’.Council of European Professional Informatics Societies for the European Commission, November, 2007

LSE/ONREC (2004) Papers from ‘Recruiting in Cyberspace’: ONREC (The Magazine for Online Recruitment around the world) Conference on recruiting on the internet, 17^th June, 2004, London School of Economics

Annex A

Details on Virtual One-Stop (1998 project in Florida, US)

The idea of the project was to produce a system on which any individual capable of effective web access could proceed through a whole series of steps, concluding in getting employment. The system would:

1. enable the user to explore the working environment of an occupation in which s/he was interested (with some richness – eg video clips of the workplace, showing attractive role models and the kinds of activities involved in the work);

2. provide a range of online psychometric testing so that the individual could get a feel for whether s/he was adequately suited to such work, and generally identifying which occupations would – based on the ?- test findings – be expected to fit the user’s characteristics/strengths (this would then allow the user to browse the working environment of other plausible occupations).

3. Support the preparation of a good c.v.: with the use of templates and various kinds of guidance, the system could help the production of a good ‘core’ document, which could be subsequently refined as necessary.

4. Allow the user to access a range of other information about each occupation, in particular the state of the local and national labour market in this occupation, and such trends about future prospects for the occupation as have recently been undertaken (eg in future-gazing studies, like Working Futures in the UK)

5. Enable access to more information about the Knowledge, Skills and Competences (and in some cases, qualifications) required for working in that occupation (drawing on work from bodies like – in the U.K. – Sector Skills Councils and Professional Institutions)

6. Drawing on such information in relation to occupations of interest, the user could then quickly a) carry out an on-line ‘Training Needs Analysis’ to identify the main gaps in his/her understanding/capabilities, and b) track down ‘learning offerings’ of relevance to these. The learning provision data could be selected by things like geographical proximity, cost, etc.), and then Virtual One Stop would provide access to databases with information about possible funding support for such courses. Once selected, the system would enable a booking to be made on the course.

7. Once the user feels that s/he is sufficiently competent/confident to apply for a job, the system would then provide information (again with filters for things like proximity and remuneration levels) on job opportunities in the occupation. These offers could be compared and – ideally – discussed with others (friends/parents).

8. Should the user desire to apply for one or more of the jobs on offer, the system would provide assistance in a) gaining more information about the employer (so that the user could carry out an initial consideration of the employer characteristics of interest), b) preparation of a tailored application letter and/or the refinement of the c.v. As with booking relevant courses, the initial stages of application for the vacancy could then be carried out on the system.

Annex B

Extracts relating to ICT user skills from

‘IT & Telecoms Insights 2008: Trends and UK Skills Implications’

(Gartner/e-skills UK)

Impact of expected trends on IT users and consumers

Enterprise success rests on using technologies to create value for their customers, constituents and stakeholders. The trend toward consumerisation and convergence of IT, plus the entry of Digital Natives into the workforce, are leading to new innovations in the ways users and consumers work – using data, voice, location, image and video information. Being successful in an environment where information is rich and deeply ingrained in processes will require users and consumers to invest time and attention in building new skills.

IT users are also consumers of technology and information-intensive solutions. The need for core IT skills in the areas of integration, content management, security and data protection will continue to increase along with the increased consumerisation of IT solutions.

Knowledge workers (high level IT users) – who rely on information and information technology to conduct their jobs – will need emerging skills including:

Use of information and analytics to make fact-based business decisions using information provided by IT systems. They need to form and test options using actual performance data

Appreciation of business analysis, where IT users may be called on to collaborate with IT professionals to define the business needs, process requirements and information needs of new systems

Understanding of process and performance modelling, to assist in defining new ways of working. For example, they may conduct a process simulation to evaluate the effectiveness of new business processes. These skills may be introduced with new IT systems along with new management metrics and targets that support benefits realisation.

Other IT users in the workforce and consumers more generally will need to build their skills and proficiencies in using information technology as it becomes pervasive in the workforce and society. This includes:

• The ability to use basic desktop technologies, including web portals, instant messaging, email, word processing, document management and similar tools
• Understanding of information security and records management policies and procedures because business professionals are the first line of defence in securing the company and its customer information
• An understanding of IT support processes and tools to take advantage of IT skills and capabilities to maintain the availability of their information and tools
• In manual occupations, how to use dedicated devices that perform specialised business functions (such as payment authorisation and package tracking).

Digital Natives

Time and technology have created a generational shift in the workforce that is now having an impact in the marketplace. Digital natives are ‘native speakers’ of the digital language of computers, video gaming and the internet. Their parents and grandparents, on the other hand, are ‘digital immigrants.’ Whilst it would be easy to view this divide as the latest generation gap, business, technology and governmental leaders are changing their structures to attract digital natives to their products, services and to their workforce.

Digital natives are driving future domestic growth. They are also the next-generation workforce. They demand technology-intensive products and services, which drives the demand for advanced analytic, design and information skills in product development and service delivery. Enterprises are meeting this demand by raising their levels of technology innovation and agility, thereby increasing the importance of the technology skills required to manage technical complexity and scale.

Digital natives have grown up with technology, as shown in the figure below. However, growing up with technology is not the same as knowing how to implement it successfully on an enterprise scale. Enterprises actually will need to build the technical skills of their digital native workforce so that they can create solutions that meet enterprise demands, support commercial levels of security, and have the requisite agility to respond to market changes.

Digital natives have experienced significant technology developments at each major stage in their lives. These developments shape their expectations as customers, as a workforce, and as a market

What will the impact be?

The IT Industry is facing the need to evolve its current employee value proposition to attract digital natives. New jobs in analytics and information, design and presentation content are needed to develop consumer-driven products and services. Web 2.0 and other consumer technologies will give digital native professionals the collaborative environment they have socially and expect in every aspect of their lives.

‘Careers guidance, identity and development’. Jenny Bimrose, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick

‘Detaching Work from Place: Charting the Progress of Change and its Implications for Learning’, Alan Felstead, School of Social Sciences, University of Cardiff

‘…….’; John Round, School of Geographical Sciences at the University of Birmingham

see http://www.e-skills.com/nvq/1077

Windows, Icons, Mice and Pointers

taken from CEPIS (2007)

It is notable that global financial developments during 2008 have created a reality not far from the 2006 study’s scenarios based on economic turbulence…

unpublished note (Wilson, October 2008)

This document has been commissioned as part of the UK Department for Children, Schools and Families’ Beyond Current Horizons project, led by Futurelab. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

The difficulty with the question “what is the meaning of work?” is not so much coming up with possible answers – there is no shortage of those – but understanding what the question is really inquiring after. Inevitably, the meaning of work strays into related but distinct questions such as “what is work?” or “why do we work?” Work obviously means many different things. On an individual level, it can be a job, a career, or a calling. There is the economic work of earning a living and the cultural work through which people come to define their identity – with a lucky few going on to enjoy experiences we associate with the word “meaning” such as interest, stimulation, friendship, fulfilment, and generally feeling useful, connected and respected. On a social and historical level, work is key to understanding social change – perhaps especially the effect of technology (Gamst, 1995; Joyce, 1987). And on a philosophical level, the concept of work raises issues not just to do with the pursuit of the good life, but also the barriers we create around work and leisure, work and play, time and space, market-work and the work of raising a family (Appelbaum, 1992; Tilgher, 1931). Many issues are encompassed by the polysemic little term “the meaning of work”. And it is due to this elusive character that theoretical approaches to issues around the meaning of work often appear to be incompatible – indeed seem to be talking across each other. As the social psychologist Marie Jahoda has put it: “A theory designed to explain the physiological concomitants of work or unemployment cannot encompass data on their subjective meaning; a theory concerned with social comparisons cannot deal with the phenomena of intra-psychic conflict; a theory about alienation as a consequence of the division of labour is unsuitable for explaining individual attitudes to work.” (Jahoda, 1982, p7)

Nevertheless, for our purposes here, “the meaning of work” would seem to be used in two separable, but clearly related senses. In a great deal of the scholarly writing, what is at issue is broadly what might be called cultural interpretation using the traditional tools of social science. To write of “the meaning of work’ is to refer to the significance of work to the individuals who do it, or to some aggregate of individuals such as groups, sectors or societies. What work means, in this sense, is concerned with attempting to answer the question: ‘”what does work mean to you?” The question seeks interpretations and to understand differing orientations towards working. And perhaps the only credible answer to the question of what work means is that its meanings are radically ambivalent and highly diverse, as will be explored more fully in the next section. “Work may be a mere source of livelihood, or the most significant part of one’s inner life; it may be experienced as expiation, or as exuberant expression of self; as bounden duty or as the development of man’s universal nature,” wrote the sociologist C. Wright Mills. “Neither love nor hatred of work is inherent in man, or inherent in any given line of work. For work has no intrinsic meaning.” (Mills, 1951) Let us call this sense of the meaning of work the “interpretation” mode.

However, to speak of experiencing “meaning” in work, or that work gives “meaning” to the rest of life – or any of the other permutations of “meaningful work” or “meaningless work” – is to use the word in a subtly different way. Meaning, here, relates to whether purpose and significance is felt, as in the more personal and more urgent question “do you consider your work to have meaning to you?” The question seeks more than an interpretation of work, but rather asks whether work has substance, significance, value and importance as lived experience. The “search for meaning” is that yearning for a feeling of wholeness and harmoniousness with the world, between day-to-day activities and some animating purpose that gives direction to life as a whole. Meaningful work is expressive of one’s nature or personality, to do with fulfilment and the realization of potential and the sense of a life cohering; it is more philosophical or experiential in character than meaning in the mode of interpretation. Meaning in this sense is captured by Studs Terkel’s oft-quoted finding from the foreward of his book, Working: “Work is about a daily search for meaning as well as daily bread; for recognition as well as cash; for astonishment rather than torpor; in short for a sort of life, rather than a Monday-to-Friday sort of dying” (Terkel, 1974). Or again: “Meaningful work and leisure consist of activities that aren’t just instrumental, but are rewarding or pleasurable in their own right,” as Joanne Ciulla has claimed (Ciulla, 2000). By extension, meaninglessness is an absence of harmonious relation between work and wider life-values.

The two modes of meaning – the interpretation version and the philosophical-experiential version – are obviously closely related to each other (although on occasion, social scientists who study “the meaning of work” may experience a sudden desire to stow their clipboards at the moment when the concept of “meaningful work” raises its head because the latter would seem to call for normative value judgements anathema to many in the field). However, the difference in perspective is important to what will follow. Over recent years, writers on work have produced a substantial number of new texts concerned with understanding the issue of “meaningful work” more directly (Ciulla 2000; Svendson 2008; Martin 2000; Overell 2008). The tone of some of this material is rather different from an older tradition of writing about “job satisfaction” or “the quality of working life” (see Weir, 1976): heightened expectations surrounding work have become increasingly culturally obvious. Even a UK government strategy paper was called “Full and Fulfilling Employment” (HMP, DTI, DWP, 2002).

Section 2: The Meaning of Work – Work as Interpretation

When people are asked casually why they work, or when inquisitive children ask their parents why they have to go to work, the answer that seems most successfully to fend off further questioning is to explain work in terms of income. We do it to earn a living; it is a means-to-an-end; what the jargon terms “the cash nexus”. In different generations the answer has also held good in many studies as offering a primary motivation underlying work (Goldthorpe, 1965; MOW, 1987; Baldry et al, 2007). For many, work is clearly driven by its external consequences rather than its intrinsic satisfactions. Nevertheless, writing on the meaning of work has arguably been less concerned with the economic rationale underlying work and rather more fascinated with the psycho-social and cultural issues surrounding it (Klein, 2008).

This balance between the economic rationale and other rationales for work has been well demonstrated in surveys. According to one study, asked if they found their work to be a “means-to-an-end”, 51% agreed. The same survey found 69% saying their work was a “source of personal fulfilment” and 78% that it was “stimulating and/or challenging” (The Work Foundation, 2006). Meanwhile, there was very strong resistance (86%) to the notion that work was meaningless.

The broad pattern has been echoed in more substantial investigations of the meaning of work, too. A study of 15,000 workers from the US, UK, Japan, West Germany, Sweden and Israel found that the “economic rationale” was pre-eminent for just over half of the sample respondents. But the survey also uncovered deep commitment to the value of working. Fractionally under half the respondents favoured the “expressive” rationale – that work offered interest, friendship, identity, a chance to be useful. Two out of three had a strong attachment to working as a life goal, with work coming second only to family when people were asked the importance of different roles in their lives (MOW, 1987).

Even a recent book which criticised some of the work-rhetoric of recent years about “de-alienated knowledge work undertaken within non-hierarchical networks and information flows” noted that the economic meaning of work is overlain by many other interpretations and needs. “Wherever possible people at work look for something beyond that, a sense of purpose or redemption, a source of challenge or enjoyment, or the ability of the work to confer or reinforce social identity or identities.” (Baldry et al, 2007)

It can sometimes come as a surprise to read news stories about lottery winners who choose to carry on working. Yet their decision is consistent with the weight of research findings. In 1955, two sociologists, Nancy Morse and Robert Weiss, first asked the question, “If by chance you inherited enough money to live comfortably without working, do you think you would work anyway?” A total of 80% answered yes. The question has been repeated by others in large-scale research exercises in 1969 (67.4%), 1974 (73%), 1977 (71.5%) and 1987 (86%) (Gini, 2000). On the other hand, it could be argued that the question does not distinguish significantly between work in an abstract, idealised form and the particular, concrete job situation individuals find themselves in. Still, when people are asked about how “satisfied” they are with their jobs overall the answer that approximately two thirds are either “satisfied” or “very satisfied” has been broadly consistent through time, albeit with some modest fluctuations (Brinkley, Coats, and Overell, 2007; Green, 2005). Such findings appear to indicate surprisingly warm feelings towards work. Yet the notion of “satisfaction” has been criticised for revealing little about the nature of the work and indicating rather more about the immense flexibility of people in adapting to their circumstances – in other words, a willingness to put a brave face on things (Weir, 1976).

The idea of work fulfilling a “psychological need” has a long history. Arguably, a lot of the social-psychological literature on this point can trace its roots to the classics. Immanual Kant noted, “If a man has done much he is more contented after his labours than if he had done nothing whatever; for by work he has set his powers in motion.” In other words, what makes the category of work so humanly important is that through it, and around it, life can take on its wider purposes; we have an existential need for work. It has been noted that almost all the great visions of utopia down the ages do not envision the elimination of the institution of work altogether, but rather suggest shortening the working day, increasing variety, and sharing the dirty work as if the absence of work is beyond the limits of human understanding. Furthermore, philosophical traditions with outwardly little in common with each other have frequently placed a high valuation on the activity of work. For example, Catholic social thought and historical materialism unite in viewing in work an activity that is fundamentally human in the sense of species-specific to the human race (contrast Karl Marx, 1973, and John Paul II, 1981) Yet whether this valorisation of work is something that holds good for all human time or is a specific consequence of the historical process of change – in particular post-Enlightenment, post-Reformation thinking and its links with the beginnings of industrialisation. According to Kumar, the roots of the tendency to let work define human identity lie in technological change. “With industrialism, work is placed at the centre not just of man but of history. Work is the means by which man makes himself … The question ‘who am I?’ which would formerly have been answered almost everywhere in terms of religion, family or place of origin could now really be answered only in terms of the occupation a man worked in.” (Kumar, 1973)

The notion of human beings having a strong dependence on work for self-esteem, identity and a sense of order was repeated frequently in both theoretical and empirical explorations during the twentieth century (Maslow, 1954; Herzberg 1959; Kornhauser, 1954). Indeed, in the early 1970s, the sentiment propelled a series of government interventions in Western democracies around the subject of the meaning and quality of working life, which attempted to address concerns that alienation was squandering both human and economic potential (see Work in America, 1973; Weir 1976). Yet the importance of work to people has emerged not just from studying people who had it, but perhaps more powerfully from studying those who did not – a point that may reassert itself as the economic climate worsens in 2008-9. In fact, generalising about the experience of the unemployed has struck scholars as more valid than generalising about the much more diverse experience of employment (Jahoda, 1982). In a famous study of what happened in the village of Marienthal not far from Vienna during the early 1930s, researchers attempted to provide greater understanding to the oft-noted phenomenon that people with time on the hands after losing their jobs did not suddenly begin to take up the violin, read more books or spend more time with their families. It led them to believe work gave people their fundamental “sense of reality”. Without work, workers lacked a sense of time structures; they felt little contact with others; they did not participate in collective activity or purpose; they suffered from a lack of status and a consequent loss of identity; and they lacked all regular activity (Jahoda, 1982).

Work, then, undoubtedly means an income. But if much of the scholarship on the question is to be believed, it means much more: the basis of modern social life, the premise of psychological wellbeing, the grounding of “reality”. We turn next to examine the related notion of “meaningful work”.

Section 3: The Meaning of Work – Meaning as Fulfilment

There is perhaps rather less of a scholarly tradition of writing specifically concerning the notion of “meaningful work” – indeed, to this author’s knowledge, there are no books or scholarly articles with the phrase “meaningful work” in their titles prior to 1982 (see Schwartz, 1982), though more have been written since. There are, of course, many formulations of what might be called “good work” or what the International Labour Organisation calls “decent work”, which might be viewed as the necessary preconditions of the individual search for meaning at work and are rooted in industrial relations and human rights perspectives (see ILO, 1998; Coats, 2008).

However, the notion of meaningful work would seem to be gesturing towards an idealised norm of work that looks at issues beyond traditional ideas of “job quality”. After all, having a good job and being well-treated is no guarantee of work’s meaningfulness. Meaning is in a sense what happens after the material and moral conditions of work have been addressed (see Ciulla, 2000).

It is self-evidently very difficult to generalise about what is meant when a person seeks or experiences meaning as by its nature it is highly subjective; in addition, pursuing meaning can seem a little elitist, even luxurious. However, some writers have sought to establish criteria for meaningful work either through survey evidence or through philosophical first principles – and from very different perspectives. The Work in America report, for example, ventured that, “When it is said that work should be ‘meaningful’ what is meant is that it should contribute to self-esteem, to a sense of fulfilment through the mastering of one’s environment and to a sense that one is valued by society” (Work in America, 1973).

Writing from a managerial standpoint which attempts to marry the individual’s search for meaning – some 70% of respondents to its survey claimed to be looking for meaning – with an organisation’s interest in performance, Roffey Park Management College has suggested meaningful work has a number of underlying qualities (Holbeche and Springett, 1984). Work becomes meaningful when it is “inherently worthwhile” – personally compelling jobs which allow people to lose themselves in tasks; it relates to a feeling of interconnectedness and trust shared with other people at work; to autonomy and respect – the freedom to make choices and be fairly treated; to balance – the management of personal commitments outside work; it is about an idea of doing something for the common good and benefiting others; and, finally, the alignment between personal values and the values that pertain in a place of work.

According to Estelle Morin, six key categories have emerged from studies since 1997. They are social purpose (doing something useful to others); moral correctness (the justifiability of work processes and results); achievement-related pleasure (enjoying one’s job and developing one’s potential); autonomy (use of skills and judgements to solve problems and make decisions); recognition (adequate salary and affirmation); and positive relationships (trust and interesting contact) (Morin, 2002). It is, of course, quite possible to challenge these features as over-idealised – unconnected from the reality of working life, even. In response, we might reply that it is necessary for societies in general and policymakers and educators in particular to think about what kind of work they would like to create.

In an innovative argument, the philosopher Mike Martin has contended that meaning in work is primarily concerned with motive (Martin, 2000): meaningfulness necessitates a trinity of inter-related motives to be present. First, there are craft motives; individuals seek after and embrace professional ideals that evoke their talents and interests. Second, there are compensation motives; these might include pay, but go much wider, into areas such as power, authority, leadership and recognition – self-interested concerns, but not necessarily egotistical ones. Third, there are moral motives; these involve trust, caring and vocation. Each of these sets of motive is a wellspring of intrinsic satisfaction in work.

A notable feature of such lists is the mixture of essentially self-interested motives and other-directed motives in work. Martin has argued that motives are invariably mixed. Meaning flows from our understanding of our own identity, but the exercise of defining a self, if is to be more than merely cynical, involves reference to goods that extend beyond ourselves. The judgement about which activities are worthwhile is never entirely subjective: our notions of meaningfulness in work tend to descend from an assumption of shared values about public goods. Meaning struggles to be meaning if it is a matter of personal pleasure and preference alone (see also Gardner, Csikszentmihalyi and Damon, 2001).

Meaningful work can be further been illuminated through a contrast with older ideas of “vocation” or “calling”. A vocation can be seen as connoting with an unshakable ethic of public or community service, a practical ideal of activity in which a person’s work becomes morally inseparable from his or her life; it “subsumes the self into a community of disciplined practices and sound judgement whose activity has a meaning and value in itself, not just in the output or profit that results from it” (see Bellah et al, 1985). The concept of vocation certainly explores very similar territory to meaningful work. But there does also appear to be a difference because vocation is premised on a sense of other-directedness and self-denial while meaningful work is very concerned with self-making and self-reference. Experience has to be personalised to have meaning. The contrast between vocation and meaningful work is at its sharpest if we think of vocation as a calling to the service of others and meaningful work as the personal experience of that service (see Overell, 2008).

Section 4: Criticisms of the Search for Meaning and Theories of Social Change

Explaining the rise – if that is the word – of meaningful work remains a key task and the subject of considerable theoretical debate. It has been argued that the concept of meaning and concomitant concerns about the loss of meaning from a culture in which instrumental reason is paramount arise only in the context of “modernity” or “advanced modernity”. Meaning is related to the search for iden